*** 2017 NHL Off-Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

[Coeur de Lion]

Testaverde ranks 89th in games played. Andreychuk ranks 7th.

not really the same at all. can you show me a stat where he ranks 1st among all players who ever played the sport like Andreychuk and PP goals?

The argument for Andreychuk, IMO, really boils down to ranking 14th all time in goals. Testaverde, similarly, ranks in the 11th - 15th spot for the relevant counting stats: passes completed, passing yards, and passing TDs. They did it in similar ways, with a handful of good (but never at all remotely elite or exceptional) years and then a huge string of average to above average seasons. I think that it's pretty fair. Obviously, Andreychuk was certainly a better hockey player than Testaverde was a football player, but his career is more similar to a guy like Testeverde than it is to that of a truly elite player.

To put it another way, take Andreychuk's career in sections. Look at his prime and compare it to his contemporaries. He was a big guy with great hands that could play in front of the net on the PP. His lack of skating made him average to a liability in all other aspects of the game. His best attribute, by far, goal scoring, wasn't hugely impressive even over the best chunk of his career (21st in GPG during his prime) despite playing on lines with a ridiculous string of HOF-level centers (Turgeon>Hawerchuk>LaFontaine>Gilmour). I have a hard time saying he was even a top-50 player overall from this era, or even saying that he was ever at any single point in his career a top-20 player overall in the league. He's not a HOFer based on this time period at all.

Then, he hung around for another decade plus putting up 30 - 40 points as a 2nd / 3rd liner and PP specialist and bouncing from team to team, and evidently this is what puts him over the top for the HOF? Longevity is nice as the cherry on top of the sundae that makes up a HOF career a la Jagr or Messier, but it's a terrible argument as the bulk of the sundae itself IMO.

Largely a matter of personal preference, obviously, but the guy wasn't a great player at all at any point, and I don't think that pure compilers should be in the HOF in any sport.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

if you're creating an all-time team, I'd take Andreychuk as a PP specialist to camp out in front of the net. I think longevity is and should be a factor when determining who makes the Hall of Fame. A guy who ranks 7th in games played, 14th in goals scored, and has 19 different seasons with 20 or more goals clearly belongs. Obviously he had to wait a long time to get in, and there are knocks against him but I think he's a significant player in NHL history.

Top-10 PP Goal Scorers all-time:

1. Andreychuk 274
2. Brett Hull 265
3. Selanne 255
4. Phil Esposito 249
5. Luc Robitaille 247
6. Brendan Shanahan 237
7. Mario 236
8. Dionne 234
9. Ciccarelli 232
10. Gartner/Jagr 217

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

new 30 thoughts

 

[RUSF18]

new 30 thoughts

12. On the blue line: the Rangers and Brendan Smith appear headed towards a deal.

13. I know we’ve been hammering Shattenkirk to the Rangers, but New York seems very determined to increase the roles and responsibilities of its young players. The draft-day trade with Arizona is excellent evidence of that.

   

 

[Coeur de Lion]

new 30 thoughts

Duchene to the Pens is intriguing -- but the $6 million cap hit would be tough to absorb considering the raises that Shultz, Dumoulin, and Sheary are going to get, plus the other spots that need to be filled. I also have my doubts that Maata would work as the centerpiece of the deal (unless the "other pieces" = multiple 1sts or something) given what Sakic is rumored to have turned down already.

I'd probably rather be conservative and resign Bonino or make a play for Boyle to fill the 3C spot for less $ rather than risk a major shake up. Unless Joe Thornton is willing to offer a big discount (like 3 x $4 million) to take a crack at finally winning a cup, which won't happen.

 

[chet]

Anyone care to forecast how many wins Mike Smith will have in Calgary this year?  Connor Hellebucyk in Winnipeg?  Potential trades in fantasy.

Very sad news about Dobber.

 

[Capella]

All members of the 04 Bolts should be in the Hall imo 

 

[Northern Voice]

Anyone care to forecast how many wins Mike Smith will have in Calgary this year?  Connor Hellebucyk in Winnipeg?  Potential trades in fantasy.

Lots of speculation that Elliott signs with the Jets to create a 1A/1B situation, FWIW.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

McDavid looking at $13.25MM/yr for 8 years per reports on twitter.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Cal Peterson to sign with the Kings. Guess Quick does get hurt a lot but he's signed forever. Looks like he has a clear path to be their #2 as early as next year though.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

McDavid looking at $13.25MM/yr for 8 years per reports on twitter.

Interested in seeing what Draisaitl gets too -- the cap situation in Edmonton could get ugly in a hurry with those two and then Lucic and RNH slotted in at $6 million each for the forseeable future.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Brendan Smith - 4yrs @ 4.35MM with the Rangers

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Mike Condon - 3yrs, $2.4MM per with OTT

 

[RUSF18]

Brendan Smith - 4yrs @ 4.35MM with the Rangers

Right about what I expected. Well done. 

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Local TSN guy, Ryan Rishaug, stating a team could look at signing Draisaitl to an offer sheet of around $9 mill. If the Oilers match, their salary cap gets screwed up. If they don't match, the other team gets Draisaitl. Win/win situation for a team like the Flames or Canucks. Handcuff the up and coming Oilers or grab a young stud centre/winger.

Best the Oilers can hope for is to get a bridge deal done with Draisaitl. If try to sign both McDavid and Draisaitl long term, they are looking at tying up probably about $23 mill of cap space on two players. 

There was already talk the Oilers would have to dump RNH'S contract in a trade (like they did with Eberle's) next off season. This might move up that timetable.

If the Oilers declined to match a contract at $9MM/year, they would get two 1st round picks, a 2nd, and a 3rd. If it's $9.8MM or higher, then the price is four 1st round picks.

Karma for Vanek/Penner offer sheets would be sweet though.

 

[Billy Bats]

Draisaitl is looking for and will probably get $9m per?! That shock anyone else or just me? Holy ####, the 2020 lockout is going to be fun. 

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Draisaitl is looking for and will probably get $9m per?! That shock anyone else or just me? Holy ####, the 2020 lockout is going to be fun. 

I don't think he'll cost that much, but he won't be cheap and if it's an offer sheet situation it will have to be pretty high.

 

[AcerFC]

Brendan Smith - 4yrs @ 4.35MM with the Rangers

Very nice. 

 

[Billy Bats]

I don't think he'll cost that much, but he won't be cheap and if it's an offer sheet situation it will have to be pretty high.

McJesus getting 13+ seems a bit nutty to me too, was thinking 10-11per. It still wouldn't be the highest percentage of a cap hit, that belongs to Ovie at 19% when he signed. 

 

[northern exposure]

I don't think he'll cost that much, but he won't be cheap and if it's an offer sheet situation it will have to be pretty high.

Draisaitl's price tag could approach $9 mill if he signs a long term deal. The Oilers will probably sign him to a bridge deal so the cap hit won't be that high.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/similar-will-leon-draisaitls-deal-connor-mcdavids/

Neither Chiarelli nor Draisaitl’s agent Mike Liut would comment, but industry comparables continually pair Draisaitl’s second contract — which will go into effect this coming season — alongside the one signed by St. Louis sniper Vladimir Tarasenko when he inked his second deal.

Two seasons ago Tarasenko signed an eight-year, $60-million deal for an AAV of $7.5 million. Tarasenko was coming off of a 37-goal, 73-point season, and would turn 24 years old early in the first season of that deal.

Tarasenko’s AAV ate up 10.5 per cent of the cap maximum when it began in 2015-16. For 2017-18 it will still represent 10 per cent of the $75-million ceiling.

Using the 10.5 per cent template, Draisiatl’s AAV this coming season would be $7.875 million. That, however, is much lower than what is believed Liut and Draisaitl are asking for.

We’ll predict an eight-year term for Draisiatl with an AAV in the area of $9.2 million. It’s rich, but having McDavid and Draisaitl locked up throughout their prime is going to be expensive.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

$22.5 million for two players? Ooooooooof. As good as McDavid and Draisaitl were last year, that's going to be pretty rough to manage the cap around. Assuming these rumors are true, of course.

 

[Billy Bats]

Won't be any problem for Chiarelli.  

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Won't be any problem for Chiarelli.  

After all, he is a GMOTY finalist. 

 

[RUSF18]

$22.5 million for two players? Ooooooooof. As good as McDavid and Draisaitl were last year, that's going to be pretty rough to manage the cap around. Assuming these rumors are true, of course.

Worst case you trade Draisaitl, and as long as his performance doesn't fall off a cliff, I can't imagine it would be too hard. Probably don't have to worry about a guy not waiving a NTC to get out of Edmonton either (no offense intended). 

 

[northern exposure]

$22.5 million for two players? Ooooooooof. As good as McDavid and Draisaitl were last year, that's going to be pretty rough to manage the cap around. Assuming these rumors are true, of course.

On their own and with reasonable contracts for lesser players, you could probably make it work. But, not when you have guys like Lucic and RNH pulling down $6mill each per year. Pouliot is making $4 mill per season. Plus they have 4 DMen (Sekera, Klefbom, Russell and Larsson) making a total of about $18 mill per year.

With Nurse and Benning coming off their ELC at the end of next season, this could get ugly really fast. Maroon will also be due for a new contract after next season and the Ducks won't be paying part of his next contract.

Pittsburgh does it with Crosby and Malkin, but they both took less than they probably could have and are around the $9-9.5 mill range.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

On their own and with reasonable contracts for lesser players, you could probably make it work. But, not when you have guys like Lucic and RNH pulling down $6mill each per year. Pouliot is making $4 mill per season. Plus they have 4 DMen (Sekera, Klefbom, Russell and Larsson) making a total of about $18 mill per year.

With Nurse and Benning coming off their ELC at the end of next season, this could get ugly really fast. Maroon will also be due for a new contract after next season and the Ducks won't be paying part of his next contract.

Pittsburgh does it with Crosby and Malkin, but they both took less than they probably could have and are around the $9-9.5 mill range.

Sid counts for $8.7 against the cap, Geno $9.5 -- those deals, incredibly, actually look like massive bargains now with the way that the cap has gone up. Sid's 2012 extension in particular -- it didn't even give him a raise in terms of AAV -- but you can't even do that kind of front loaded 12 year contract anymore.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Worst case you trade Draisaitl, and as long as his performance doesn't fall off a cliff, I can't imagine it would be too hard. Probably don't have to worry about a guy not waiving a NTC to get out of Edmonton either (no offense intended). 

Eh, I dunno. Finding a team that has both the cap space and the available assets might not be that easy, no matter how good a player he turns out to be.

 

[northern exposure]

Sid counts for $8.7 against the cap, Geno $9.5 -- those deals, incredibly, actually look like massive bargains now with the way that the cap has gone up. Sid's 2012 extension in particular -- it didn't even give him a raise in terms of AAV -- but you can't even do that kind of front loaded 12 year contract anymore.

Compared to the numbers McDavid is rumored to be getting, even Toews and Kane look like bargains with a cap hit of $10.5 mill each.

Yeah the days of front loaded longer term deals  and top guys taking less than their market value are over too.

McDavid's reported deal will set new standards for all the other players up for new contracts. Everybody has to take less than McDavid, but ends up getting more than they would have before Connor signed the rumored deal.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

IMO Toews is in the running for most overpaid player in the NHL the way he's played since signing that deal...

ETA the Leafs must be crapping their pants right now.

 

[RUSF18]

Eh, I dunno. Finding a team that has both the cap space and the available assets might not be that easy, no matter how good a player he turns out to be.

Didn't say anything about assets. If you are nervous to sign a guy because of how it will affect your cap down the road, you move the guy for the best you can get. Whatever that is, plus the production of the player you receive up until that point, is obviously way better than letting a premium asset walk for nothing as a FA.  

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Didn't say anything about assets. If you are nervous to sign a guy because of how it will affect your cap down the road, you move the guy for the best you can get. Whatever that is, plus the production of the player you receive up until that point, is obviously way better than letting a premium asset walk for nothing as a FA.  

True -- and that will likely come into play if they sign him to a bridge deal this offseason (if he would even go for that) or if they try to explore trading him now. Everything that Chiarelli has said, though, seems to indicate that they are looking to lock him in long term. It almost certainly won't happen d/t the NHL GM good ol' boy network, but it would get really interesting if another team stepped up with a big offer sheet just a hair below the highest compensation level.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Looks like the Pens are going to be priced out of the market for Bonino -- he's rumored to be drawing heavy interest from a bunch of teams and looking for at least a 4x4 type of deal. Don't blame the guy at all for wanting to cash in at this point, but losing him might really hurt depending on who they bring in.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

@Russostrib 10m10 minutes ago

Getting sense there's still lots of trade talk between #mnwild & the #sabres and #bruins. No doubt others, but definitely those two

@Bill Brasky

 

[fightingillini]

IMO Toews is in the running for most overpaid player in the NHL the way he's played since signing that deal...

ETA the Leafs must be crapping their pants right now.

IMO Toews was worth every penny since he helped bring 3 Stanley Cups to CHI.

But going forward the Hawks are paying the ultimate price for Toews (and Kane's) contracts.  Look at the players the Hawks have had to trade because they been in cap hell.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

IMO Toews was worth every penny since he helped bring 3 Stanley Cups to CHI.

But going forward the Hawks are paying the ultimate price for Toews (and Kane's) contracts.  Look at the players the Hawks have had to trade because they been in cap hell.

Toews is the highest paid player in the NHL, and IMO he isn't even in the conversation for best player in the league, particularly the last two years. Of course the Cups are worth it, but that's still paying him for what he did in the past as opposed to what he's doing now and moving forward. Personally, were I a Hawks fan, I'd be more OK with Kane's contract because he's a genuinely elite offensive talent and a threat for the Ross every year, and that's far more rare than a very good 60 point 200 foot C.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Toews is the highest paid player in the NHL, and IMO he isn't even in the conversation for best player in the league, particularly the last two years. Of course the Cups are worth it, but that's still paying him for what he did in the past as opposed to what he's doing now and moving forward. Personally, were I a Hawks fan, I'd be more OK with Kane's contract because he's a genuinely elite offensive talent and a threat for the Ross every year, and that's far more rare than a very good 60 point 200 foot C.

a couple years ago, there were a not insignificant number of people who considered Toews to be competing with Crosby for the best overall player in the NHL. His offense (or lack thereof) lately has hurt his stock while Crosby has surged following his concussion issues and playoff failures, and I'd agree Toews is overpaid for his intangibles but I also don't think Chicago is too concerned about his contract.

Kopitar and Ovechkin make almost the same exact amount. Who would you rather have at this point?

 

[chet]

Toews is the highest paid player in the NHL, and IMO he isn't even in the conversation for best player in the league, particularly the last two years. Of course the Cups are worth it, but that's still paying him for what he did in the past as opposed to what he's doing now and moving forward. Personally, were I a Hawks fan, I'd be more OK with Kane's contract because he's a genuinely elite offensive talent and a threat for the Ross every year, and that's far more rare than a very good 60 point 200 foot C.

You are wrong on so many levels.  I will simply quote Mike Babcock when he was coaching Team Canada in the 2010 Olympics:  

Reporter:  Who's your best player?

MB: Anyone playing with Toews.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

a couple years ago, there were a not insignificant number of people who considered Toews to be competing with Crosby for the best overall player in the NHL. His offense (or lack thereof) lately has hurt his stock, and I'd agree he's overpaid for his intangibles but I also don't think Chicago is too concerned about his contract.

Kopitar and Ovechkin make almost the same exact amount. Who would you rather have at this point?

Yeah, the Kopitar deal is bad -- forgot about that one. Ovechkin's deal is from 2008, and yeah he's tailed off, but for the bulk of that deal he was by far the best goal scorer in the NHL, and as much as I love to bag on the guy, he's certainly a 1st ballot HOFer.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

some other overpaid players:

Corey Perry: $8.625MM cap hit (PPG of .76 and .65 last 2 years)

Jakub Voracek: $8.25MM cap hit (.75 pts/game over past 2 years, but 40% of his points come on the PP, -24 in '16-'17)

Rick Nash: $7.8MM cap hit (.58 pts/game over past 2 years)

 

[Coeur de Lion]

You are wrong on so many levels.  I will simply quote Mike Babcock when he was coaching Team Canada in the 2010 Olympics:  

Reporter:  Who's your best player?

MB: Anyone playing with Toews.

You have anything that's not from 7 years ago? Or anything tangible based on numbers or results?

Just about every Hawks fan that I talk to (and that's pretty much every hockey fan I know living in NWI) have pissed and moaned about Toews' play and contract pretty much constantly for almost the past two years. I watch plenty of Hawks hockey, and he flat out hasn't been a $10.5 million player. I really don't see an argument in favor of him living up to that contract since it kicked in, either in the regular season or in the playoffs.

 

[AcerFC]

Henriks deal is among the worst in the league for what he brings. He is one of the highest paid players on a list where no other goalie is on or close. I just saw it on twitter. Let me see if I can link it 

 

[AcerFC]

For the fun of it, per @NHLnumbers, here are the highest cap hits, currently, for '17-'18. #nhl #isles https://t.co/BFih9JzqoF

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

You have anything that's not from 7 years ago? Or anything tangible based on numbers or results?

Just about every Hawks fan that I talk to (and that's pretty much every hockey fan I know living in NWI) have pissed and moaned about Toews' play and contract pretty much constantly for almost the past two years. I watch plenty of Hawks hockey, and he flat out hasn't been a $10.5 million player. I really don't see an argument in favor of him living up to that contract since it kicked in, either in the regular season or in the playoffs.

that's a big reason why they re-acquired Saad. Toews hasn't really clicked with anybody since they traded him. His most common linemates this year were Richard Panik and Nick Schmaltz. Averaging .8 pts/game with those guys on your wing isn't too shabby imo.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Henriks deal is among the worst in the league for what he brings. He is one of the highest paid players on a list where no other goalie is on or close. I just saw it on twitter. Let me see if I can link it 

yeah, but he's the King

Lundqvist at $8.5MM cap hit >>>> Rinne at $7MM cap hit

Carey Price is going to get a big deal soon enough to close the gap there too.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

that's a big reason why they re-acquired Saad. Toews hasn't really clicked with anybody since they traded him. His most common linemates this year were Richard Panik and Nick Schmaltz. Averaging .8 pts/game with those guys on your wing isn't too shabby imo.

Absolutely. IMO, though, the 8 figure cap hit contracts should be reserved for guys who you don't really need to cater to in terms of linemates. And the other reason behind that trade was the fact that they were guaranteed to lose Panarin in two years partly because of the very contract we're discussing.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

yeah, but he's the King

Lundqvist at $8.5MM cap hit >>>> Rinne at $7MM cap hit

Carey Price is going to get a big deal soon enough to close the gap there too.

If McDavid does indeed sign for 13.25x8, Price is probably going to be the first $10 million AAV goalie IMO.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Absolutely. IMO, though, the 8 figure cap hit contracts should be reserved for guys who you don't really need to cater to in terms of linemates. And the other reason behind that trade was the fact that they were guaranteed to lose Panarin in two years partly because of the very contract we're discussing.

when you have success like Chicago had, a lot of guys are going to get big deals.

Seabrook was the bigger problem imo.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Oilers buying out Pouliot. Has 2 years left at $4MM per.
 

NHLNumbers‏ @NHLnumbers 10m10 minutes ago

That's a cap hit of $1,333,333 for the next four seasons. That's a $2,666,667 savings for two years & a $1,333,333 bonus for the next.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

when you have success like Chicago had, a lot of guys are going to get big deals.

Seabrook was the bigger problem imo.

Definitely agree on Seabrook...