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2017 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)
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Footballguy
A bump and updates based on recent comments including moving T Coleman from Honorables to Candidates.
The definition of this thread is generally PREEMPTIVE in re-draft:
To paraphrase @TZMarkie from last year: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".
Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is my Pre-Week-1 list, LOOSELY ranked:
From Matt Bitonti of Football Guys: 2017 OFFENSIVE LINE RANKINGS AND NOTES: PRESEASON WEEK 4 (Aug 31 2017) , here is an extracted ranking using only the "Run" column, including only those OLs that received an A+ or A...
The definition of this thread is generally PREEMPTIVE in re-draft:
To paraphrase @TZMarkie from last year: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".
Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is my Pre-Week-1 list, LOOSELY ranked:
- TEN Derrick Henry - I realize he was drafted in most leagues but if he isn't...
- ATL Tevin Coleman - suggested by @icehouse ... per @davearm : Coleman and Henry should be 1a and 1b on the "season changer" list.
- PIT James Conner - personally I have noticed over the years that players who hold out (L Bell) all summer and pre-season tend to get hurt
- GB Jamaal Williams - per @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles A-aron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
- GB Aaron Jones - suggested by @icehouse : not real clear on who Montgomery's backup is. If Montgomery goes down I think they use a committee among the 3 rookies. Some beat writers think that Jones has outplayed Williams and is the no. 2 with Williams playing the 3rd down role.
- NE Dion Lewis - his ADP was really low this summer - per @Dope - Talent wise, he should be 1st. But it's Belichek. And an incredibly crowded backfield. No way he becomes the feature. Not that I see anyway.
- NE Rex Burkhead - per @Ilov80s - I would think Rex Burkhead NE applies still. The roles in NE could be messy but he's the only NE back with the combo of size and receiving ability to if injuries or poor performance befall other backfield mates - per @hardcoredx : Burkhead has the size to move the chains and is probably the best all around back in NE with Lewis. I see Gillislee and White as specialists.
- NO Alvin Kamara (PPR leagues only)
- SF Matt Breida - I am including him in the Candidate List out of respect for Shannahan's offense
- ARIZONA - David Johnson's Backup: Kerwynn Williams or Andre Ellington ?
- DEN J Charles - suggested by @mnmplayer
- PIT Terrell Watson? (instead of James Conner)?
- OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. - per @joey : it'll be a 50/50 split between Washington and Richard.That said, Richard looked like the more explosive and well-rounded runner last year to my eyes
- IND Mack
- IND Matt Jones
- PHI W Smallwood -
- PHI Pumphrey - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
- PHI Clement - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
- TBB Jacquizz Rodgers - reports indicated an observance of "wearing down" after carrying a significant load in several consecutive games - not enough size to carry a big load over the course of a season?
- TBB Peyton Barber suggested by @btemp
- KCC K Hunt per @Arodin: K. Hunt is the new golden prospect, but rooks have a tendency to wear down, and anybody can get hurt.
- KCC C West per @Arodin: Don't sleep on C. West, who had success as a feature back the same time Ware did, and could,jump,into the role again if something happens to Hunt.
- WAS Samaje Perine - per @hardcoredx : looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
- CHI Tarik Cohen -suggested by @Franknbeans and @groin pains - per @King of the Jungle : I think Cohen can be special however I am concerned with Chicago's ability to utilize him to his fullest.
- SEA CJ Prosise suggested by @Boston
- SEA Chris Carson suggested by @groin pains
- HOU D'Onta Foreman suggested by @yellowdog
- DEN rookie DeAngelo Henderson - per @hardcoredx: looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
- DEN D Booker
- DAL A Morris
- CIN J Hill - per @QuizGuy66 : only owned in 18% of ESPN leagues...
- NYG S Vareen - per @Boston : I think Shane Vereen has lotto potential...unless Perkins picks things up that backfield does not have much talent...it is a solid offense so there will be opportunity for an RB to put up numbers...this is odd to say but when you look at their depth chart Vereen could actually be the most talented RB on the roster...if you look at his numbers (and by no means is it a big sample size) when he got hurt last year it looked like he was starting to carve out a nice role for himself that could produce some sneaky fantasy points...fast-forward to this season and not much has changed in that unit except Gallman coming in and Jennings going...he seems to be a forgotten guy (for good reason) but could be worth a flyer as an end of daft option...
- LAR Malcolm Brown - suggested by @crowe1130 : Clear backup to Gurley
- SF Joe Williams - SEP 3 PUT ON INJURED RESERVE - per @groin pains - Early reports are Matt Breida has leap frogged Joe Williams - - per @Weebs210 (re-posting from another thread) You are all wrong. Matt Breida. He has out played Williams and is locked into the number two role. We all know Hyde can't stay healthy. Can't remember what website but it puts Hyde at an 87% chance of being injured. Breida could easily play the Coleman role out the gate for Shannahan with a possibility for more playing time behind an oft injured Hyde. The guy had crazy Sparq scores (like McKinnon except Breida has played rb his whole life). You heard it here first. Grab him while he is free.
- FREE AGENT Jonathan Williams
From Matt Bitonti of Football Guys: 2017 OFFENSIVE LINE RANKINGS AND NOTES: PRESEASON WEEK 4 (Aug 31 2017) , here is an extracted ranking using only the "Run" column, including only those OLs that received an A+ or A...
- Teams receiving an A+: DAL, OAK, BUF
- Teams receiving an A: CLE, PIT, WAS, TEN
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I typically don't buy into depth charts, but the Raiders week 1 depth chart has Richard ahead of Washington...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.silverandblackpride.com/platform/amp/2017/9/5/16256424/raiders-release-week-1-depth-chart
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.silverandblackpride.com/platform/amp/2017/9/5/16256424/raiders-release-week-1-depth-chart
Short Corner
Footballguy
:sehorn:
daylight
Footballguy
A bump with updates based on my observations of Thursday's game between NE and KCC:
Added Gillislee to the Candidates List and moved K Hunt to the Candidates List - both at the top. While both *should* have been rostered (depending upon league size and competition) they are now the leading darlings of next weeks waiver processing.
After Tuesday's WWs I will move them to the Too Late List.
The definition of this thread is generally PREEMPTIVE in re-draft:
To paraphrase @TZMarkie from last year: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".
Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is my Pre-Week-1 list, LOOSELY ranked:
From Matt Bitonti of Football Guys: 2017 OFFENSIVE LINE RANKINGS AND NOTES: PRESEASON WEEK 4 (Aug 31 2017) , here is an extracted ranking using only the "Run" column, including only those OLs that received an A+ or A...
Added Gillislee to the Candidates List and moved K Hunt to the Candidates List - both at the top. While both *should* have been rostered (depending upon league size and competition) they are now the leading darlings of next weeks waiver processing.
After Tuesday's WWs I will move them to the Too Late List.
The definition of this thread is generally PREEMPTIVE in re-draft:
To paraphrase @TZMarkie from last year: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".
Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is my Pre-Week-1 list, LOOSELY ranked:
- NE M Gillislee
- KCC K Hunt per @Arodin: K. Hunt is the new golden prospect, but rooks have a tendency to wear down, and anybody can get hurt.TEN Derrick Henry - I realize he was drafted in most leagues but if he isn't...
- ATL Tevin Coleman - suggested by @icehouse ... per @davearm : Coleman and Henry should be 1a and 1b on the "season changer" list.
- PIT James Conner - personally I have noticed over the years that players who hold out (L Bell) all summer and pre-season tend to get hurt
- GB Jamaal Williams - per @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles A-aron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
- GB Aaron Jones - suggested by @icehouse : not real clear on who Montgomery's backup is. If Montgomery goes down I think they use a committee among the 3 rookies. Some beat writers think that Jones has outplayed Williams and is the no. 2 with Williams playing the 3rd down role.
- NE Dion Lewis - his ADP was really low this summer - per @Dope - Talent wise, he should be 1st. But it's Belichek. And an incredibly crowded backfield. No way he becomes the feature. Not that I see anyway.
- NE Rex Burkhead - per @Ilov80s - I would think Rex Burkhead NE applies still. The roles in NE could be messy but he's the only NE back with the combo of size and receiving ability to if injuries or poor performance befall other backfield mates - per @hardcoredx : Burkhead has the size to move the chains and is probably the best all around back in NE with Lewis. I see Gillislee and White as specialists.
- NO Alvin Kamara (PPR leagues only)
- SF Matt Breida - I am including him in the Candidate List out of respect for Shannahan's offense
- ARIZONA - David Johnson's Backup: Kerwynn Williams or Andre Ellington ?
- DEN J Charles - suggested by @mnmplayer
- PIT Terrell Watson? (instead of James Conner)?
- OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. - per @joey : it'll be a 50/50 split between Washington and Richard.That said, Richard looked like the more explosive and well-rounded runner last year to my eyes
- IND Mack
- IND Matt Jones
- PHI W Smallwood -
- PHI Pumphrey - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
- PHI Clement - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
- TBB Jacquizz Rodgers - reports indicated an observance of "wearing down" after carrying a significant load in several consecutive games - not enough size to carry a big load over the course of a season?
- TBB Peyton Barber suggested by @btemp
- KCC C West per @Arodin: Don't sleep on C. West, who had success as a feature back the same time Ware did, and could,jump,into the role again if something happens to Hunt. - UPDATE SEP 9 per @Statorama - Watch for West to get dropped in a lot of leagues (with Hunt's performance), worth stashing given how good the o-line looked Thursday.
- WAS Samaje Perine - per @hardcoredx : looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
- CHI Tarik Cohen -suggested by @Franknbeans and @groin pains - per @King of the Jungle : I think Cohen can be special however I am concerned with Chicago's ability to utilize him to his fullest.
- SEA CJ Prosise suggested by @Boston
- SEA Chris Carson suggested by @groin pains
- HOU D'Onta Foreman suggested by @yellowdog
- DEN rookie DeAngelo Henderson - per @hardcoredx: looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
- DEN D Booker
- DAL A Morris
- CIN J Hill - per @QuizGuy66 : only owned in 18% of ESPN leagues...
- NYG S Vareen - per @Boston : I think Shane Vereen has lotto potential...unless Perkins picks things up that backfield does not have much talent...it is a solid offense so there will be opportunity for an RB to put up numbers...this is odd to say but when you look at their depth chart Vereen could actually be the most talented RB on the roster...if you look at his numbers (and by no means is it a big sample size) when he got hurt last year it looked like he was starting to carve out a nice role for himself that could produce some sneaky fantasy points...fast-forward to this season and not much has changed in that unit except Gallman coming in and Jennings going...he seems to be a forgotten guy (for good reason) but could be worth a flyer as an end of daft option...
- LAR Malcolm Brown - suggested by @crowe1130 : Clear backup to Gurley
- SF Joe Williams - SEP 3 PUT ON INJURED RESERVE - per @groin pains - Early reports are Matt Breida has leap frogged Joe Williams - - per @Weebs210 (re-posting from another thread) You are all wrong. Matt Breida. He has out played Williams and is locked into the number two role. We all know Hyde can't stay healthy. Can't remember what website but it puts Hyde at an 87% chance of being injured. Breida could easily play the Coleman role out the gate for Shannahan with a possibility for more playing time behind an oft injured Hyde. The guy had crazy Sparq scores (like McKinnon except Breida has played rb his whole life). You heard it here first. Grab him while he is free.
- FREE AGENT Jonathan Williams
From Matt Bitonti of Football Guys: 2017 OFFENSIVE LINE RANKINGS AND NOTES: PRESEASON WEEK 4 (Aug 31 2017) , here is an extracted ranking using only the "Run" column, including only those OLs that received an A+ or A...
- Teams receiving an A+: DAL, OAK, BUF
- Teams receiving an A: CLE, PIT, WAS, TEN
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daylight
Footballguy
Guys: please note that I live in Florida and am currently "on the run" from Irma from the last two days so this is the first time I have had a chance to update. I'm safe in Alabama for the moment but might have to hit the road again any moment pending Irma's trajectory.
My thoughts and prayers are with all the folks who did not have the time and resources to "get out" as I did.
My thoughts and prayers are with all the folks who did not have the time and resources to "get out" as I did.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
This is no excuse for not giving RB lotto ticket updates! Priorities!
(good luck with everything)
daylight
Footballguy
Wrigley
Footballguy
gethugefast1
Footballguy
be safe
i'm 35 minutes north of orlando, 25 minutes west of daytona beach... put away the pool furniture and any other loose things on property, got couple of cases of water, beer etc... most neighbors boarded up windows (didn't want to hermit in the dark)... all good thus far
mostly concerned irma spurns a sharknado
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
Stay safe everyone
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Hard to believe no De'angelo Henderson from DEN. That backfield is wide open and dude has skills.
Also can't believe no Duke Johnson. Do people not see him as cheap enough to be a "lotto ticket"? Because he has mad upside and he's no more expensive that Coleman or others on this list.
You can nuke Matt Jones from IND for now.
Also can't believe no Duke Johnson. Do people not see him as cheap enough to be a "lotto ticket"? Because he has mad upside and he's no more expensive that Coleman or others on this list.
You can nuke Matt Jones from IND for now.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
some snap counts:
Foreman: 2 (L Miller with 64 and T Ervin with 50. Ervin used a lot in the pass game from what I saw)
Jamaal Williams: 6 (Monty with 76, A Jones Inactive)
Smallwood: 15 (Blount 25, Sproles 33)
Perine: 0 (Kelley 33, Thompson 30)
Foreman: 2 (L Miller with 64 and T Ervin with 50. Ervin used a lot in the pass game from what I saw)
Jamaal Williams: 6 (Monty with 76, A Jones Inactive)
Smallwood: 15 (Blount 25, Sproles 33)
Perine: 0 (Kelley 33, Thompson 30)
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
I'll be the guy to vouch for post-hype Devontae Booker at some point this season. I went back, watched all his carries/catches from 2016 and came away more impressed than I expected to. Booker can run with power and his hands are great.
My rational is ...Year 2, looked good in camp, even listed as #2 on the depth chart prior to injury. Denver's gap scheme fits his talents better than zone (ala Murray in 16), will help the vision issues he had last season. Could set up as a do-it-all with GL, full workload and pass catching roles. Playoff schedule is NYJ, @IND, @WAS.
He's likely sitting in the free agent pool and set to return in the next few weeks.
My rational is ...Year 2, looked good in camp, even listed as #2 on the depth chart prior to injury. Denver's gap scheme fits his talents better than zone (ala Murray in 16), will help the vision issues he had last season. Could set up as a do-it-all with GL, full workload and pass catching roles. Playoff schedule is NYJ, @IND, @WAS.
He's likely sitting in the free agent pool and set to return in the next few weeks.
daylight
Footballguy
Post Week 1 (games and WWs) bump with updates. Moved some guys to the Too Late list as they *should* be rostered in all formats by now. This is a Preemptive Thread.
The definition of this thread is generally PREEMPTIVE in re-draft:
To paraphrase @TZMarkie from last year: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".
Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is the list, NOT ranked:
From Matt Bitonti of Football Guys: 2017 OFFENSIVE LINE RANKINGS AND NOTES: PRESEASON WEEK 4 (Aug 31 2017) , here is an extracted ranking using only the "Run" column, including only those OLs that received an A+ or A...
The definition of this thread is generally PREEMPTIVE in re-draft:
To paraphrase @TZMarkie from last year: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".
Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is the list, NOT ranked:
- TEN Derrick Henry - I realize he was drafted in most leagues but if he isn't...
- ATL Tevin Coleman - suggested by @icehouse ... per @davearm : Coleman and Henry should be 1a and 1b on the "season changer" list.
- PIT James Conner - personally I have noticed over the years that players who hold out (L Bell) all summer and pre-season tend to get hurt
- GB Jamaal Williams - per @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles Aaron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
- GB Aaron Jones - suggested by @icehouse : not real clear on who Montgomery's backup is. If Montgomery goes down I think they use a committee among the 3 rookies. Some beat writers think that Jones has outplayed Williams and is the no. 2 with Williams playing the 3rd down role.
- NE Dion Lewis - his ADP was really low this summer - per @Dope - Talent wise, he should be 1st. But it's Belichek. And an incredibly crowded backfield. No way he becomes the feature. Not that I see anyway.
- NE Rex Burkhead - per @Ilov80s - I would think Rex Burkhead NE applies still. The roles in NE could be messy but he's the only NE back with the combo of size and receiving ability to if injuries or poor performance befall other backfield mates - per @hardcoredx : Burkhead has the size to move the chains and is probably the best all around back in NE with Lewis. I see Gillislee and White as specialists.
- NE James White - because any back on NE could be a Season Changer if he becomes "the last man standing"
- NO Alvin Kamara (PPR leagues only)
- SF Matt Breida - I am including him in the Candidate List out of respect for Shannahan's offense
- ARI - David Johnson's Backup: Kerwynn Williams or Andre Ellington or Chris Johnson ? In Bloom's On The Couch (Tue Sep 12) he said that the ARI OL looks "tired" so perhaps the answer is "no one"
- DEN J Charles - suggested by @mnmplayer
- PIT Terrell Watson? (instead of James Conner)?
- OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. - per @joey : it'll be a 50/50 split between Washington and Richard.That said, Richard looked like the more explosive and well-rounded runner last year to my eyes
- IND M Mack
- IND Matt Jones
- PHI W Smallwood - Got very few carries in Week 1
- PHI Pumphrey - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
- PHI Clement - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
- TBB Jacquizz Rodgers - reports indicated an observance of "wearing down" after carrying a significant load in several consecutive games - not enough size to carry a big load over the course of a season?
- TBB Peyton Barber suggested by @btemp
- KCC C West per @Arodin: Don't sleep on C. West, who had success as a feature back the same time Ware did, and could,jump,into the role again if something happens to Hunt. - UPDATE SEP 9 per @Statorama - Watch for West to get dropped in a lot of leagues (with Hunt's performance), worth stashing given how good the o-line looked Thursday.
- WAS Samaje Perine - per @hardcoredx : looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
- SEA CJ Prosise suggested by @Boston
- SEA Chris Carson suggested by @groin pains
- HOU D'Onta Foreman suggested by @yellowdog
- DEN rookie DeAngelo Henderson - per @hardcoredx: looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
- DEN D Booker - per @One : I went back, watched all his carries/catches from 2016 and came away more impressed than I expected to. Booker can run with power and his hands are great. My rational is ...Year 2, looked good in camp, even listed as #2 on the depth chart prior to injury. Denver's gap scheme fits his talents better than zone (ala Murray in 16), will help the vision issues he had last season. Could set up as a do-it-all with GL, full workload and pass catching roles. Playoff schedule is NYJ, @IND, @WAS. He's likely sitting in the free agent pool and set to return in the next few weeks.
- DAL A Morris
- CIN J Hill - per @QuizGuy66 : only owned in 18% of ESPN leagues...
- NYG S Vareen - per @Boston : I think Shane Vereen has lotto potential...unless Perkins picks things up that backfield does not have much talent...it is a solid offense so there will be opportunity for an RB to put up numbers...this is odd to say but when you look at their depth chart Vereen could actually be the most talented RB on the roster...if you look at his numbers (and by no means is it a big sample size) when he got hurt last year it looked like he was starting to carve out a nice role for himself that could produce some sneaky fantasy points...fast-forward to this season and not much has changed in that unit except Gallman coming in and Jennings going...he seems to be a forgotten guy (for good reason) but could be worth a flyer as an end of daft option...
- LAR Malcolm Brown - suggested by @crowe1130 : Clear backup to Gurley
- CLE Duke Johnson - suggested by @Hankmoody
- DET Dwayne Washington - suggested by @Deaddawg
- SF Joe Williams - SEP 3 PUT ON INJURED RESERVE - per @groin pains - Early reports are Matt Breida has leap frogged Joe Williams - - per @Weebs210 (re-posting from another thread) You are all wrong. Matt Breida. He has out played Williams and is locked into the number two role. We all know Hyde can't stay healthy. Can't remember what website but it puts Hyde at an 87% chance of being injured. Breida could easily play the Coleman role out the gate for Shannahan with a possibility for more playing time behind an oft injured Hyde. The guy had crazy Sparq scores (like McKinnon except Breida has played rb his whole life). You heard it here first. Grab him while he is free.
- FREE AGENT Jonathan Williams
- NE M Gillislee
- KCC K Hunt per @Arodin: K. Hunt is the new golden prospect, but rooks have a tendency to wear down, and anybody can get hurt.
- CHI Tarik Cohen -suggested by @Franknbeans and @groin pains - per @King of the Jungle : I think Cohen can be special however I am concerned with Chicago's ability to utilize him to his fullest.
From Matt Bitonti of Football Guys: 2017 OFFENSIVE LINE RANKINGS AND NOTES: PRESEASON WEEK 4 (Aug 31 2017) , here is an extracted ranking using only the "Run" column, including only those OLs that received an A+ or A...
- Teams receiving an "A+": DAL, OAK, BUF
- Teams receiving an 'A": CLE, PIT, WAS, TEN
Last edited by a moderator:
daylight
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Actually Henderson was already on there (and he's now listed twice), not sure how I missed him.
To me a "lotto ticket" player is someone who currently not startable in fantasy, but due to injury or performance in games, become a true consistent startable asset. A guy who if things fall the right way might be a flex play for you is not someone i would classify as a lotto ticket. just my 2 cents and my suggested revisions. my thoughts are geared to redraft leagues where i am looking at who could potentially have good value this season.
would there be any value in parsing this list to "in an instant could be very valuable" and then another group if A and B happen... then maybe...
OP, thank you for starting the thread. can i suggest you keep the most current list in the 1st post of the thread?
TEN Derrick Henry
TBB Jacquizz Rodgers would be surprised if he is on many waiver wires at this point
BUF Jonathan Williams not on a roster right now, could conisder adding tolbert instead
WAS Samaje Perine
GB Jamaal Williams - per @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles A-aron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
SF Joe Williams - per @groin pains - Early reports are Matt Breida has leap frogged Joe Williams update the list to show breida only
NE Dion Lewis - his ADP was really low this summer - per @Dope - Talent wise, he should be 1st. But it's Belichek. And an incredibly crowded backfield. No way he becomes the feature. Not that I see anyway. seems highly unlikely this year any NE RB presents consistent week to week fantasy production, so not really "lotto ticket"
PHI W Smallwood
NO Alvin Kamara (PPR leagues only)
DEN rookie DeAngelo Henderson would need CJ, charles and booker to get hurt to have value this season (?)
DAL A Morris? perhaps the best lotto ticket on this list, even if he had to cede passing work to mcfadden if zeke hurt.
PIT James Conner
OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. I seriously should have bought stock in Richard or Washington and yet i didn't even consider it. Big miss for me probably
DEN D Booker needs CJ and charles to get hurt to have value, also wet the bed last year when given the chance to be lead dog. really looked ordinary to me last year
IND Mack
per @groin pains - Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes i cant consider the eagles 4th and 5th RB's as a lotto ticket as things stand today
per @groin pains - other dart throws that I do not see is T. Cohen RB Chi and Chris Carson RB Sea, cohen is already a winning lotto ticket
per @Ilov80s - I would think Rex Burkhead NE applies still. The roles in NE could be messy but he's the only NE back with the combo of size and receiving ability to if injuries or poor performance befall other backfield mates I disagree, too many mouths to feed right now to expect consistent fantasy production from any NE back.. gillislee the best bet since he gets GL carries on (what we believe to be) a great offense.
would there be any value in parsing this list to "in an instant could be very valuable" and then another group if A and B happen... then maybe...
OP, thank you for starting the thread. can i suggest you keep the most current list in the 1st post of the thread?
TEN Derrick Henry
WAS Samaje Perine
GB Jamaal Williams - per @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles A-aron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
PHI W Smallwood
NO Alvin Kamara (PPR leagues only)
DAL A Morris? perhaps the best lotto ticket on this list, even if he had to cede passing work to mcfadden if zeke hurt.
PIT James Conner
OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. I seriously should have bought stock in Richard or Washington and yet i didn't even consider it. Big miss for me probably
IND Mack
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TartanLion
Footballguy
Unfortunately he may not have the cerebral profile to put it all together if Sunday's display is anything to go on.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I don't think there is a lottery ticket behind Lynch in Oakland. While I think Richard has more spark and is a little more dynamic so far, Washington is a decent talent and if Lynch goes down, pretty sure it would be a pure split backfield with these two, a 50/50 timeshare with FB Olawale sprinkled in on short yardage/stripe carries.
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daylight
Footballguy
daylight
Footballguy
@iamkoza -
- I appreciate your opinion - that's what this thread is for - a campfire discussion based on "who are looking to preemptively pick up and stash" that (per @TZMarkie) "has the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload". Someone who is not only not start-able but is not rostered (or in danger of being dropped - so I think we are talking about the same thing
- I'm trying to keep the list to three parts, Candidates, Honorable Mentions and Too Late - same as we did last year.
- I'd rather do what we did last year and keep the most recent list updated on every page, keeping the current list close to the most recent discussion points
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btemp
Footballguy
Just my opinion, but I watched all his snaps last year and it was ugly. He may have the athletic profile but I'm very skeptical he can be even an average RB.
daylight
Footballguy
That seems to be the consensus and that is why the OAK situation is on the Honorable Mentions list.
I agree. Getting injured the first game you have a chance to perform leaves a bad taste for sure. Still, Detroit chooses to have him active on game day and they are giving him carries. There is a chance he puts it together. AA hasn't put a complete game together either and that presents opportunity for Washington. He is definitely a back bencher in deeper leagues and by definition a lotto pickup.
Chaka
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Don't waste your time with Jamaal Williams. If Ty goes down, Aaron Jones will emerge as the best back in GB. But Ty has looked pretty good week 1, so I am not sure he loses the job on performance; it will take an injury at this point
Seems like a JAG. Wasn't impressed with anything he did last year. AA has shown explosiveness in the past. He had a tough matchup last week and another tough one this week then it's easy sailing
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Williams (and guys like DET Washington) hold no interest for me. In both instances you're holding a virtual zero without an injury, and even then your most likely scenario is a timeshare back at best, on a team that's already shown they'd be perfectly happy throwing the ball 45 times a game instead.
I'd hold someone like Chris Ivory or Rex Burkhead 10 out of 10 times over those guys.
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Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
By the way @daylight, if Ivory hasn't made the most recent iteration of your list, he probably should. He looked like a new man out there Week 1 against a pretty stout Texans D, and unlike the situations in GB and DET there's no question Marrone will continue to pound the rock even if Fournette were to go down.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I agree. It all depends on bench depth. Short to medium bench leagues I wouldn't hold a guy like Washington DET or Williams. Deep bench, sure why not, but those guys are probably drafted in deep bench leagues.
TBH I am not sure there are many "lotto" RBs left after week 1... a lot of them were snatched up. Even in my short bench league. I believe Burkhead was dropped in my league,and I'm intrigued to pick him up... I think he is the most valuable back in that offense in general. Lewis I think could get traded, so he's someone to watch.
Ivory is a workhorse should Fournette go down. He is someone I'd definitely consider for this list
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Chaka
Footballguy
You say that with a lot of confidence. Is there something supporting that conclusion or is it your opinion?
I recall seeing some camp quotes to that effect a few weeks ago.
As another poster mentioned, if Montgomery goes down, it'd be a messy RBBC sharing a handful of carries while Rodgers chucks it 50 times a game.
Chaka
Footballguy
These are two great questions right now.
McCoy nursing groin injury. Still expected to play but definitely worth monitoring.
Chaka
Footballguy
Has Joe Banyard done anything to suggest he is worth adding in front of Tolbert?
ETA: Answering my own question. 28 year old, 6th year player with 23 career carries and 10 receptions, all but three of those came in 2014 in Minnesota when Peterson missed 14 games.
Tolbert seems to pretty clearly be the guy behind McCoy.
ETA: Answering my own question. 28 year old, 6th year player with 23 career carries and 10 receptions, all but three of those came in 2014 in Minnesota when Peterson missed 14 games.
Tolbert seems to pretty clearly be the guy behind McCoy.
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I think it's worth asking what sort of fantasy value Tolbert would deliver, at his age (31), in that offense, even with McCoy out.
Chaka
Footballguy
It is a good question. I think his upside is Leroy Hoard at 31. Mostly because there is a dearth of RB talent behind him so the opportunities should be there...at least until they sign Ryan Matthews.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
An opinion formulated from camp and preseason reports. Jones looked like a more complete back. Even after the draft the analysis was that Williams was more of a situational back and Jones was considered "the most complete of all the rookies" - quoted from somewhere. I think even Yahoo or Roto analysis said that it would be a time share but Jones getting most of the work not Williams should Monty go down.
Williams looked awful in preseason too. Jones and Mays looked incredible (by comparison). Jones and Mays can catch, Williams is not as good at that. Jones is a better pass blocker as well.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Again I am not sure how these conclusions are drawn. Not saying you are wrong but Jones had 11 more catches in college (with a slightly lower Y/C), point being it isn't like BYU didn't trust Williams in the passing game. We really don't know much about them as players from the blurbs coming out of OTAs and TC, written by people trying to catch eyeballs more than provide great analysis. My opinion is that, in the event of a Montgomery injury it's gonna be a full blown committee between Williams, Jones and Rip. However the good thing about McCarthy is that, unlike a lot of coaches, he may actually settle on one back to be the lead but I doubt it happens until he rotates them for a couple weeks.
IMO picking the guy behind Monty feels like a dart throw more than anything.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Aaron Jones was #2 or #3 SPARQ score amongst all rookie RBs.
A few quotes:
Jones analysis
(people were salivating over Dixon for 2 years)
Analyzing all 5 RBs
(James Starks? Eh...)
Demrovsky's analysis after the draft:
That's two James Starks comparisons...
Furthermore on GB going RBBC:
Sure, guys writing these things are looking for clicks, to make news, and it's just opinions... but it's also what they do for a living. I'm more willing to trust an "Expert" than try and think I know more than they do. I don't walk into my dentist's office and try to act like I know more than he does. It drives me bonkers when my patients do this to me. So to each their own, but there's a lot of "complete back" talk when it comes to Jones, and more "between the tackles situational RB" talk for Williams, even from Elliot Wolf who is pretty much set to take over for Thompson when he decides to hang it up... that's as much from the horses mouth as it can get
Maybe that makes a little more sense how I came to the conclusion I did regarding GB's future at RB should Ty Montgomery fizzle or get hurt. It's because it's all anybody is saying.
I would disagree on GB going RBBC should Montgomery go down. In the past they haven't shown to do this ever. Even when Lacy was struggling they went with Starks. He was awful so they were kind of stuck. Last year they could have went RBBC but they pretty much committed to Ty.
Should Ty Montgomery go down, given Jones is a much closer talent and skill set to Montgomery, it would be my opinion based on the above and other analysis that I have read that Jones would step in for Montgomery and Williams' role would not change
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