2018 Redraft: What does the first round look like? (1 Viewer)

[Aunt Jemima]

No that won't happen because he's not making All-Pro and neither player or team have any interest in parting ways.

he may not but he is very close, both he and Kamara made the pro bowl team. If he has a big game this week I still think it could happen but you are right probably only 10-15% chance

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Good post - lots of good takes. 

On this first one, I’d say Hopkins is QB-proof at this point. He has to be in the top 8 regardless of Watson. Almost better for redraft value to both if Watson’s recovery is slow & he isn’t back until game 2 or 3. 

on this one I dunno - if the Niners take him at 1.05 and go RBBC with Hyde that would likely matter for he worse...  

Or if Seattle trades up to take him & also improves their OL it would matter for the better. 

Top 9 seems awfully high for a rookie RB due to the depth at the position & also the known commodities in the top 12. Dalvin Cook had tremendous pedigree & looked legit AF in the preseason & still only rose to mid-to-late 2nd in ADP this year.

Agreed. And the overall sorry state of the Bills offense as well. But the future is bright and IMO shady will again become a value pick in the 2nd round. 

Love freeman, hate his OC. But Year 2 things might improve - still, with Coleman in there, I’m not sure he’ll be viewed as top 12. 

love Gordon’s volume, but man is this dude disappointing on a per touch basis. With Gordon you’re basically drafting for his floor since his ceiling just isn’t that great. That said, I could see the fantasy community propping him up top12 based on volume 

Agree on AJG, ODB, Julio & Keenan. I could easily see all 3 falling to the 2nd. Or late 1st where someone will be sitting at 10,11 or 12 with 4 RB on the board they like and only one Julio Jones - having been in that position I know how much better Jones looks at that point. I still think he’s fool’s gold. 

Michael Thomas seems like a better pick than those guys based on his floor, while having a strong ceiling as well. But when draft day hits I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see at least 2 of them go before MT on brand recognition. 

The one thing I realized going thru this early exercise, was how dominant RB will be in Round 1 again.  Don’t remember it being this unbalanced for quite some time.  Outside of AB, no WR really felt viable in Round 1.  Honestly, Gronk has as much of a case as ‘the field’...and I consider him firmly in Round 2 territory.  My early inclination would be that it would be desirable to have a later 1st round pick in 2018.

Couple of counterpoints:

Barkley - situation always matters, but what we’ve seen DAL/JAX do with Zeke/Fournette has been to ride them.  Fournette dropped to Round 2 because Marrone/Coughlin didn’t declare Fournette their starter upon being drafted like Jerry (and *stifles laugh* Garrett did).  But once the season started...

I know SF has cap space galore, but if they resign Hyde, don’t they have bigger fish to fry at 1.05 (defense/WR)?  I have to think someone drafts Barkley to play 800-900 snaps in 2018.

Freeman - on a per game basis (if you take out the three games he missed) Freeman would project to a 1450 YFS/10 season.  I don’t disagree about Sark though.  IMO, the biggest reason the Falcons offense fell off was how the RB’s were de-emphasized in the passing game.  They don’t feel dangerous in that regard now.  I have to think that becomes a significant point of emphasis for Sark to focus on.

Nuke - For me, I’m a ‘you can’t win your league in Round 1, but you can lose it’ type of drafter.  He showed himself as QB proof in 2017, but certainly was not in 2016.  If Watson is slow to recover, there would be safer (and still high value production) options in Top 8 IMO.  One other thing to consider...he’s the most heavily targeted WR in the NFL (170/484 - 35%; very high)

Run-CMC - I wouldn’t sleep on him.  His last 6 games he’s gone for 479/5.  He plays a ridiculous amount of snaps.  Quite frankly, I could see a scenario where he is next years Kamara only with more volume.

Dalvin - I loved him.  Had him.  Was devastated when I lost him.  But NFL draft pedigree is NFL draft pedigree.  It plays into drafting decisions in August.  Case in point, Run-CMC likely drafted in majority of drafts prior to Dalvin despite MIN committing to him as the workhorse.

 

[Pwingles]

a top 12 is really tough I think, a 2 round snake list would be fun

 

[Mt. Man]

Eh, let me take a way-too-early shot.

1. Bell

2. Gurley

3. Zeke

4. Brown

5. DJ

6. Hunt

7. OBJ

8. Hopkins

9. Kamara

10. Gordon

11. Cook

12. Julio

*First 3 or 4 are pretty interchangeable. Same with 5-7. After that it gets tougher. I think there will still be enough of a premium on RBs that at least 7 will be first rounders, but I see Ingram falling to the 2nd. It's hard to leave out Hill, Allen and Adams, but I'm guessing Green and Julio go above them, if only on pedigree. Definitely strong 2nd round, with Ingram, Fournette, Freeman, Howard and maybe McCaffrey plus at least 5 intriguing WRs and Gronk. Maybe Wilson goes in the second, but seriously, QB's so stacked that Tom Brady might not make the top 5 (probably will over Watson and Cam, but might not). 

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

The one thing I realized going thru this early exercise, was how dominant RB will be in Round 1 again.  Don’t remember it being this unbalanced for quite some time.  Outside of AB, no WR really felt viable in Round 1.  Honestly, Gronk has as much of a case as ‘the field’...and I consider him firmly in Round 2 territory.  My early inclination would be that it would be desirable to have a later 1st round pick in 2018.

My initial cut at this (assuming full PPR) had 7 RBs and 5 WRs, with the cutoff between Freeman/Barkley at RB and Jones/Thomas at WR, and even then it felt light at WR. Surely full-PPR scoring meant I was under-emphasizing elite WRs relative to their RB counterparts, right?

Not any more.

Through week 15, here are the point totals for the average of the top 3, the borderline #1s (the average of the 11-13th ranked), and the borderline #2s (the average of #23-25) at the two positions, in full PPR scoring:

RB: Top 3 = 313; borderline RB1 = 182; borderline RB2 = 142

WR: Top 3 = 281; borderline WR1 = 203; borderline WR2 = 165

That's an enormous VBD advantage for the RBs no matter which way you slice it. And it made perfect sense when I thought about it; the elite every-down backs are catching so many more passes than even just 5-6 years ago that the notion that full-PPR devalues the top-end RBs is an anachronism.

I still think OBJ has to be a 1st-rounder - Eli's presence or absence will be overblown; he hasn't been even a good QB for years. But aside from him, AB, and Nuk, could I see passing on any other WR at #11 for someone like Hunt, Barkley, or McCoy? Yeah, I think I could.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

And just to be different, I'm going to take a swing at a top-24 in 2QB / superflex formats, since I play a fair amount of those.

In full-PPR, and assuming Wentz starts the season on PUP (otherwise I'd slot him right around Watson and Prescott):

1. Zeke
   
2. Bell
   
3. Gurley
   
4. Russ
   
5. DJ
   
6. AB
   
7. A-Rod
   
8. Nuk
   
9. Cam
   
10. Fournette
    
11. Gordon
    
12. Brady
    
13. OBJ
    
14. Freeman
    
15. Watson
    
16. Prescott
    
17. Hunt
    
18. Allen
    
19. Julio
    
20. Barkley
    
21. Kamara
    
22. Thomas
    
23. Brees
    
24. AJG
    

 

[wodahSShadow]

Like many others have posted, this upcoming year seems to stacked with 1st round talent well into the 2nd round.  I am always on guard against recency bias and big name tickets, but here it goes:

My Rankings, Full PPR:

1.01 Brown - This is assuming Big Ben comes back (he could easily drop out of top 10 otherwise).  The sudden influx in quality RBs and derth of top end WRs is what propels him above the RB crop to follow

1.02 Gurley - It will be hard to top this year, especially considering they really have not had a healthy COP most of year (Dunbar) to steal receptions. With that said, the offense should only get better, so less touches but more TDs to offset.  The "safest" pick in the 1st round.

1.03 Bell - Obviously, this all depends on if he is back with Pittsburgh.  The amount of touches he has received is insane (387 so far) so that is a little bit of a concern - to my recollection no RB with 400+ touches has even come close to reproduction the following year.

1.04 Elliot - The 2nd safest play in the 1st round.   Outside of the knucklehead factor, it is hard to imagine him finishing outside of the top 10 RBs next year barring injury.  If Palmer comes back, I would probably put DJ ahead of him.

1.05 DJ - Essentially will have an entire year off from taking hits. Regardless of QB situation, he will be inline for a massive workload; could catch over 100 passes if  someone other than Palmer is at the helm.

1.06 OBJ - Assumes Manning will be back.  People may overlook him based on this year, but he has the past pedigree and massive upside to justify this spot.

1.07 Fournette - Jags offense should only get better. Their defense will ensure they will be playing with the lead - or close to it - for most of their games.  His injury propensity scares me, but 1800 YFS & 12+ TDs is well within reach for him.

1.08 Hopkins - Unlike what others have said in this thread, no #1 WR is QB proof; that is just a ridiculous notion (slot receivers/TE's I can see more of an argument for).  If Watson is not back healthy before the season I would drop him from the 1st round easily.

1.09 McCaffrey - 100+ receptions and 10 total TDs are well within reach.  Having a hard time imagining how he (and the Panthers usage of him) could be worse next year.  As someone else said, he will be next year's Kamara.

1.10 Hunt - He lack of usage in pass blocking is concerning, as maybe that leaves open the door for a timeshare with Ware, but here's to hoping he is able to improve in that area in the off season.  

1.11 Kamara - even with Ingram coming back, his floor is still high.  His TD rate will not last but he seems to be a lock for 12+ points every week with 25+ upside.

1.12 Cook - looked fantastic before his injury. 

Can see the following jumping into the 1st round based on off-season developments:

- Ingram, Barkley/Guice, Hyde, Evans, Julio, Gordon, Green, Gronk, Freeman, Mi. Thomas, Henry

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Confrontational?  I made a general, on-topic, comment that neither Ingram or Kamara should be drafted in round 1 next year, and YOU quoted MY post- asking for reasoning.  I'm just commenting on your queries.  Don't be so diluted, it's not me being confrontational.

While I do appreciate the passive-aggressive nature of your post, telling me that I'm missing the point of the topic, unfortunately, you're mistaken.  Again, I stated that neither should be 1st round selections (the topic of this thread), you asked for clarification (not the topic of the thread).  So, please stay on topic Mr. Hotty.

There are no "virtual locks" in fantasy football.  It is not a virtual lock that in a redraft league that Kamara will be in the top 12.  You are assuming a lot of things, especially that it's a PPR league.  You are also assuming that 2 rookies (namely Barkley and/or Guice) can't be top 12 selections.  Depending on landing spot, they absolutely can be top 12 picks.

Lastly, while having a HoF QB is nice to have in your back pocket, it certainly doesn't even come close to guaranteeing anyone 12-15 TD's.  I'm sorry, but in Mark Ingrams 7 year career...all with a HoF QB, how many 12-15 TD seasons has he had?  How about 10 TD seasons?  If you said zero, you would be correct.  How about how many seasons he has had above 6 TD's?  Answer...1.  So spare me the hypothetical nonsense, that isn't backed up with a shred of evidence other than your bias.

Let’s stop playing games here. Your confrontational nature was in making it personal by challenging me to “draft him in the 1st if I want to”, which *entirely missed the point of this topic*. You clearly continue to miss the point by doubling down with the “virtual locks” comment, ignoring that we’re talking about where the experts will list the 1st round and not where we personally believe the players should be ranked.  As such my “bias” is irrelevant - I’m just making a guess as to where other people will rank them. Get it? No, you clearly don’t.  

If that's the pace you that you think he is going to keep up, after the NFL has an off-season to game plan around him, be my guest and select him at 1.07-1.12.  It's just not going to be me.

That’s what you said. And it absolutely missed the point. 

And now you start making personal attacks, misstating my user name & continuing to be confrontational. Calling me “passive aggressive” because you missed the point of a theoretical exercise, for example. And you continue to miss the point. Again: this isn’t about where *I* or anyone here would or should rank these players. We’re just talking about what the 1st round would look like. 

But you’re clearly not interested in engaging this discussion. As such, welcome to ignore. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

1.07 - McCaffrey

1.10 - Julio Jones

Think my McCaffrey might be a reach, but a lot to like.

Also know that typically my leagues have 2 QBs go in the first round, but there will be enough depth at QB that I really don't care.  I'd take a Watson/Newton/Winston/Prescott after the big name/older qbs go early.  Wilson will go too early next year.  Brady has to be getting close to the dropoff but will go early - same with Rodgers coming back from injury.

I was debating including McCaffery - since it’s PPR and the ‘sperts are in  with him, I could see him creeping up to the 1st. 

Depends what CAR does with JStew in the off-season & how McC looks in preseason, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him ranked top 12. 

I probably wouldn’t be interested in him there, but I’m sure some would. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The one thing I realized going thru this early exercise, was how dominant RB will be in Round 1 again.  Don’t remember it being this unbalanced for quite some time.  Outside of AB, no WR really felt viable in Round 1.  Honestly, Gronk has as much of a case as ‘the field’...and I consider him firmly in Round 2 territory.  My early inclination would be that it would be desirable to have a later 1st round pick in 2018.

Couple of counterpoints:

Barkley - situation always matters, but what we’ve seen DAL/JAX do with Zeke/Fournette has been to ride them.  Fournette dropped to Round 2 because Marrone/Coughlin didn’t declare Fournette their starter upon being drafted like Jerry (and *stifles laugh* Garrett did).  But once the season started...

I agree - his value certainly could prove to be that of a Zeke or Fournette - but I look at Dalvin Cook. His ADP was 3rd round then crept up to 2nd. He wasn’t in the 1st round convo at all. Is Barkley’s pedigree that much higher than Cook’s? 

Fournette also wasn’t a 1st rounder this year. Food for thought. 

I know SF has cap space galore, but if they resign Hyde, don’t they have bigger fish to fry at 1.05 (defense/WR)?  I have to think someone drafts Barkley to play 800-900 snaps in 2018.

As a Niners fan I certainly would prefer they address the many other needs. Hyde is serviceable and RBs can be had cheap. So yeah - I agree.  I would say OL help to protect their 24 million dollar investment in Garapolo will be important. And with a really solid top 10 picks in this draft I’d be a little surprised if they didn’t trade down to do it. So I don’t think Barkley is on the Niners radar, though I’ve seen several mocks with them taking him there. 

Freeman - on a per game basis (if you take out the three games he missed) Freeman would project to a 1450 YFS/10 season.  I don’t disagree about Sark though.  IMO, the biggest reason the Falcons offense fell off was how the RB’s were de-emphasized in the passing game.  They don’t feel dangerous in that regard now.  I have to think that becomes a significant point of emphasis for Sark to focus on.

Completely agree here. But becuse it ran the course it did I have to think Freeman is discounted to 2nd round next year, where I would gladly take him as a RB1 with a 9-12 pick (e.g. 2.01, 2.02, 2.03, 2.04).

Nuke - For me, I’m a ‘you can’t win your league in Round 1, but you can lose it’ type of drafter.  He showed himself as QB proof in 2017, but certainly was not in 2016.  If Watson is slow to recover, there would be safer (and still high value production) options in Top 8 IMO.  One other thing to consider...he’s the most heavily targeted WR in the NFL (170/484 - 35%; very high)

All good points - and you might be spot on that he declines. But based on this year how could any expert ranking not include Nuk as top 12? 

Run-CMC - I wouldn’t sleep on him.  His last 6 games he’s gone for 479/5.  He plays a ridiculous amount of snaps.  Quite frankly, I could see a scenario where he is next years Kamara only with more volume

I suspect he’ll land on some experts 1st round list. He might even earn it as you suggest. 

Dalvin - I loved him.  Had him.  Was devastated when I lost him.  But NFL draft pedigree is NFL draft pedigree.  It plays into drafting decisions in August.  Case in point, Run-CMC likely drafted in majority of drafts prior to Dalvin despite MIN committing to him as the workhorse.

CMC went 2-3 picks after Cook in both my leagues. Cook’s preseason showing elevated him (i drafted late in both leagues).

i suspect we’ll get an injury discount on Cook and he’s ranked as a 2nd rounder.

which highlights the point of this exercise - identifying reaches & bargains in the 1st.

fun discussion, mostly. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There are years Sproles and Bush should have been and is that not the point? And again, neither of those two are in his league to the talent does matter.

ETA-also your comment they were never first round picks is wrong. The first year FFPC started I drafted Reggie Bush at pick 11. That year he was RB1 till like week 7 IIRC and then suffered a knee injury. So he was not only in consideration as a first round pick, he was a first round pick and until he got hurt was worth every bit I paid for him. That's what it will take Kamara to not produce first round numbers,  get hurt.

Spot on. Reggie Bush was absolutely ranked top 12 by ESPN, CBS, etc. 

i would be shocked to see Kamara ranked outside the top 12 next season in consensus rankings.

Some may give us caveats along with their ranking, but I’ve never seen a (non-QB) player who finished 1. healthy & 2. top 5 in fantasy left out of the 1st round by expert consensus rankings.

Maybe some of the FBG staff could weigh in here, but I’d be stunnned if they didn’t have Kamara listed as top 12 headed into next year’s draft.

whether anyone here would take him there is another discussion. Like you, it’s a gamble I’d probably take. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

I’m challenging you by saying to “draft him in the first if you want to”?  Are you nuts?  Grow up Mr Hotty. You’re the exact reason I don’t post often. Go back to your list that you have Hopkins over Brown, forgot DJ, don’t have OBJ, have Allen in your top 7. All you did was take the top 12 of this year and recycle them for next season. I’ll be following your posts next year...can’t wait for your tune to change. Allen in the top 7...lol. 

Be way cooler and keep the topic on the topic and not other posters. Thanks.

 

[Don't Noonan]

If I’m drafting anywhere and DJ falls to me, I’m happy. We forget how good he was last year. I would take him at 1.01 in 10 out of 10 drafts.

Now, if Arians bails, I’d have to get a read on the new coach, but I think Arians is more important to DJ’s value than Palmer is.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

i have mad DJ man-love too, but I think there will be an injury discount. I don’t think he’d be 1.01 regardless so long as AB returns healthy & Bell & Zeke have no off-field issues.

I wouldn’t hesitate to take him in the top 5 regardless of coach or QB. He’s gonna be beastly again. 

 

[Don't Noonan]

i have mad DJ man-love too, but I think there will be an injury discount. I don’t think he’d be 1.01 regardless so long as AB returns healthy & Bell & Zeke have no off-field issues.

I wouldn’t hesitate to take him in the top 5 regardless of coach or QB. He’s gonna be beastly again. 

Yeah, I was giving Kutta a little crap because I know he has a man crush on DJ.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yeah, I was giving Kutta a little crap because I know he has a man crush on DJ.  

I remember last year when I also had him. 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

DJ is a tough one for me. A lot of his value came from the pass game. He hasn’t struck me as a dynamic rusher. I don’t mean to to discount his production in the receiving game but the uncertainty at the cards QB situation is a concern. Ultimately he is a first rd prospect, I am just not sure where.

The proposition between CMC and Cook is interesting. Both represent very strong value so I would be happy with either. I agree that Cooks will be discounted due to injury.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I agree that Cooks will be discounted due to injury.

My concern with Cook is that this is finally the year that McKinnon stepped up his game. And Murray even showed well at times.

surely they’ll eat into Cook’s production?

that worries me a little. In the end I think talent will won out, and Cook is undoubtedly talented.  But with such a capable backfield, why would the Vikings rush Cook back? And will he resume feature back duties? Or will McKinnon & Murray form a 3-headed monster? 

I have concerns about 2018 with Cook. 

 

[Ack88]

Has the last couple of weeks changed anyone’s thinking?

Still debating between Gurley, Zeke, AB, and Bell at #1 overall.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Has the last couple of weeks changed anyone’s thinking?

Still debating between Gurley, Zeke, AB, and Bell at #1 overall.

It’s certainly changed mine. Gurley should be the consensus no-brainer 1.01 in every format. 

20 TD RB. In what should be an improving offense with an improving QB. 

He was ~100 points better than the next fantasy player, including QBs. 

There’s no way I take anyone else if I have the 1 pick & I can’t see how any of the ‘sperts will rank him any differently. 

 

[kutta]

It’s certainly changed mine. Gurley should be the consensus no-brainer 1.01 in every format. 

20 TD RB. In what should be an improving offense with an improving QB. 

He was ~100 points better than the next fantasy player, including QBs. 

There’s no way I take anyone else if I have the 1 pick & I can’t see how any of the ‘sperts will rank him any differently. 

DJ had 20 TDs in the last season he played. I get that things may change in AZ, but if the current cast and crew hang around, I think it’s close between DJ and Gurley.

 

[zamboni]

DJ had 20 TDs in the last season he played. I get that things may change in AZ, but if the current cast and crew hang around, I think it’s close between DJ and Gurley.

Unfortunately it doesn’t sound like the same cast and crew will be around, including Arians. And Arians rode DJ like a true workhorse - no guarantee that a new coach will do the same. Plus the team may not be as good as when DJ last played.

He’s still a dynamic talent, just with a lot more uncertainty in his situation vis-a-vis Gurley, Elliott or Bell.

 

[hoffman0001]

I think it's a great year in re-draft to trade down to the end of the 1st if you get a high pick. If you can get a nice compensation for a trade down, go for it! 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

DJ had 20 TDs in the last season he played. I get that things may change in AZ, but if the current cast and crew hang around, I think it’s close between DJ and Gurley.

AZ is trending in the opposite direction - no QB, maybe a coaching change, aging receivers.

DJ is still a first rounder, but I couldn’t disagree more that DJ is a close 2nd to Gurley at this point. 

 

[kutta]

AZ is trending in the opposite direction - no QB, maybe a coaching change, aging receivers.

DJ is still a first rounder, but I couldn’t disagree more that DJ is a close 2nd to Gurley at this point. 

That’s why I added the caveat about the current cast and crew. If Arians leaves, all bets are off. If he stays, he will ride DJ like no one’s business.

I agree the teams are going in different directions, but DJ will still be a super work horse back.

 

[Hankmoody]

One huge caveat would be what happens in FA.  Bell's landing spot can have a cascading affect on this.  Assuming he's in PIT:

Gurley
Bell
EZE
AB
DJ
Hunt
OBJ
Hopkins
Rob Gronkowski
Leonard Fournette
Melvin Gordon
Josh Gordon

Surprises:
Neither NOS RB makes it as fears manifest of how the split will continue.  Can Kamara stay hot?  Will Ingram fade off?  Too risky with other strong options available.
Josh Gordon makes it through the off-season clean.  And if he does, he's gotta be in there in redraft.  I wouldn't touch him there in a startup dynasty, but I'll roll those dice in redraft.

Head scratcher:
Someone drinks the Reid/Mahomes Kool-aid and drafts Tyreek Hill in the first.

It's the year of the RB.  In PPR scoring is heavily slanted toward RB so they go fast and furious.

People are gonna bag on me for Melvin Gordon but he's RB6 and overall 9 non-QB.  Obviously changes if they invest heavily at RB in the offseason that changes my list but until they do they haven't, and he's their undisputed bellcow right now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That’s why I added the caveat about the current cast and crew. If Arians leaves, all bets are off. If he stays, he will ride DJ like no one’s business.

I agree the teams are going in different directions, but DJ will still be a super work horse back.

Oh for sure - that’s why I still have him top 4. He’ll make up the difference in volume.

But if both Ariens & Palmer are gone would I take him over Bell (if Big Ben is back) or AB (assuming the same) or Zeke for 16 games? Tough call. Would depend on who they get at QB / HC.  

 

[kutta]

One huge caveat would be what happens in FA.  Bell's landing spot can have a cascading affect on this.  Assuming he's in PIT:

Gurley
Bell
EZE
AB
Hunt
OBJ
Hopkins
Rob Gronkowski
Leonard Fournette
Melvin Gordon
Josh Gordon
LeSean McCoy

Surprises:
Neither NOS RB makes it as fears manifest of how the split will continue.  Can Kamara stay hot?  Will Ingram fade off?  Too risky with other strong options available.
Josh Gordon makes it through the off-season clean.  And if he does, he's gotta be in there in redraft.  I wouldn't touch him there in a startup dynasty, but I'll roll those dice in redraft.

Head scratcher:
Someone drinks the Reid/Mahomes Kool-aid and drafts Tyreek Hill in the first.

It's the year of the RB.  In PPR scoring is heavily slanted toward RB so they go fast and furious.

People are gonna bag on me for Melvin Gordon but he's RB6 and overall 9 non-QB.  Obviously changes if they invest heavily at RB in the offseason that changes my list but until they do they haven't, and he's their undisputed bellcow right now.

DJ?

 

[kutta]

Oh for sure - that’s why I still have him top 4. He’ll make up the difference in volume.

But if both Ariens & Palmer are gone would I take him over Bell (if Big Ben is back) or AB (assuming the same) or Zeke for 16 games? Tough call. Would depend on who they get at QB / HC.  

I agree those other guys are safer if Arians and maybe Palmer are gone.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I agree those other guys are safer if Arians and maybe Palmer are gone.

Imo Gurley is the safest pick of the top 4-5. Until we know what’s up with Roethlisberger & AZ Coach/QB, AB, LBell & DJ all carry some risk.

hell, if those situations work out questionably, Nuk becomes pretty attractive with Watson returning & a defense that isn’t likely to be as good as in years past. 

 

[Hankmoody]

DJ?

Damn, knew I'd do that as I was putting it together.  Fixed.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Damn, knew I'd do that as I was putting it together.  Fixed.

I did the same. Recency bias is a cruel mistress. 

 

[Hankmoody]

I did the same. Recency bias is a cruel mistress. 

I blame you and your Huard'ing.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I blame you and your Huard'ing.

I’m a Huarder, what can I say? I’ve got several petrified cats who tragically died under a mountain of Damon Huard jerseys, autographs, player cards, magazine clippings and old VHS tapes of Huard in action. 

Also, I’m going to say “Hoyer” over and over in my head from here to Magic Mountain so I never ever do that again.  

 

[travdogg]

One huge caveat would be what happens in FA.  Bell's landing spot can have a cascading affect on this.  Assuming he's in PIT:

Gurley
Bell
EZE
AB
DJ
Hunt
OBJ
Hopkins
Rob Gronkowski
Leonard Fournette
Melvin Gordon
Josh Gordon

Surprises:
Neither NOS RB makes it as fears manifest of how the split will continue.  Can Kamara stay hot?  Will Ingram fade off?  Too risky with other strong options available.
Josh Gordon makes it through the off-season clean.  And if he does, he's gotta be in there in redraft.  I wouldn't touch him there in a startup dynasty, but I'll roll those dice in redraft.

Head scratcher:
Someone drinks the Reid/Mahomes Kool-aid and drafts Tyreek Hill in the first.

It's the year of the RB.  In PPR scoring is heavily slanted toward RB so they go fast and furious.

People are gonna bag on me for Melvin Gordon but he's RB6 and overall 9 non-QB.  Obviously changes if they invest heavily at RB in the offseason that changes my list but until they do they haven't, and he's their undisputed bellcow right now.

I'd can't imagine anyone spending a 1st on Josh Gordon. Or a 2nd? Or a 3rd? He'll be 5 years removed from his last(only) good season. I have a hard time seeing Gordon being drafted as a top-15 WR let alone top-15 overall pick.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

I'd can't imagine anyone spending a 1st on Josh Gordon. Or a 2nd? Or a 3rd? He'll be 5 years removed from his last(only) good season. I have a hard time seeing Gordon being drafted as a top-15 WR let alone top-15 overall pick.

Yeah I'm a Gordon believer and theres no way I take him over Green, Julio, Michael Thomas or Evans. And thats just wrs. 

I see the players broken up into these tiers in the first

Gurley / Bell / Elliot / DJ 

Brown / Hopkins

Hunt / Shady / Fournette / Gordon

OBJ / Green / Julio

That means players like Freeman, Howard, Gronk, Kamara and Ingram go early 2nd, which mean I love the idea of picking in the back half this year. Freeman missed 3 games and the whole offense slumped and he still finished rb13 in standard, hes going to be a steal next year

 

[Ack88]

Yeah I'm a Gordon believer and theres no way I take him over Green, Julio, Michael Thomas or Evans. And thats just wrs. 

I see the players broken up into these tiers in the first

Gurley / Bell / Elliot / DJ 

Brown / Hopkins

Hunt / Shady / Fournette / Gordon

OBJ / Green / Julio

That means players like Freeman, Howard, Gronk, Kamara and Ingram go early 2nd, which mean I love the idea of picking in the back half this year. Freeman missed 3 games and the whole offense slumped and he still finished rb13 in standard, hes going to be a steal next year

I don't see how anyone of sound mind takes Josh Gordon within the first 5 rounds. But, there are always those with high risk thresholds. 

 

[ghostguy123]

I don't see how anyone of sound mind takes Josh Gordon within the first 5 rounds. But, there are always those with high risk thresholds. 

Assuming he isnt suspended when your draft takes place, seems round 5 cant be considered too early for him.  No way.

1st round is silly.  Only soulfly will take him round 1

 

[JamieMurphy]

In no particular order, I'd be happy getting these guys with my first round pick next year. Shied away from listing Hunt because Ware could come back and get carries. Gordon is there but he falls if CLE doesn't get a QB or he has any relapses. I took Gronk with the #5 overall pick this year in one league with less regrets than the Julio, Johnson, or Zeke owners and I'd do it again.

Brown

Bell

Kamara

Zeke

Gurley

Johnson

Gronk

J. Gordon

McCoy

Ingraham

Hopkins

Last one is a toss up. Julio? K Allen? M Thomas? Hunt? OBJ? A lot depends on camps, injury recovery, draft picks, and free agency shake ups.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In no particular order, I'd be happy getting these guys with my first round pick next year. Shied away from listing Hunt because Ware could come back and get carries. Gordon is there but he falls if CLE doesn't get a QB or he has any relapses. I took Gronk with the #5 overall pick this year in one league with less regrets than the Julio, Johnson, or Zeke owners and I'd do it again.

Brown

Bell

Kamara

Zeke

Gurley

Johnson

Gronk

J. Gordon

McCoy

Ingraham

Hopkins

Last one is a toss up. Julio? K Allen? M Thomas? Hunt? OBJ? A lot depends on camps, injury recovery, draft picks, and free agency shake ups.

Hunt was already taking the job from Ware in the preseason. It’s why some of us targeted Hunt so aggressively. 

But that said, this list is more about wat we think the consensus / expert 1st round projections will be. 

Hunt (assmuming even a mediocre final game) will finish close to a 2000 yard double digit TD season (he’s 1845/10 right now). 

Theres no way he’s not a consensus 1st round pick in 10+ team leagues. 

You might avoid him there, and maybe you have good reason for doing so. 

But he’ll be a top 10 on every rankings list for sure. 

 

[Ack88]

Assuming he isnt suspended when your draft takes place, seems round 5 cant be considered too early for him.  No way.

1st round is silly.  Only soulfly will take him round 1

Presuming a 12 team league- Round 5 is up to pick 60 overall. With his track record, there is no chance I take Josh Gordon here, but I'll concede that someone might well do so. I'm just blown away by this. Guy has missed multiple, full seasons and is as high risk as you can get.

 

[Ack88]

Hunt was already taking the job from Ware already in the preseason. It’s why some of us targeted Hunt so aggressively. 

But that said, this list is more about wat we think the consensus / expert 1st round projections will be. 

Hunt (assmuming even a mediocre final game) will finish close to a 2000 yard double digit TD season (he’s 1845/10 right now). 

Theres no way he’s not a consensus 1st round pick in 10+ team leagues. 

You might avoid him there, and maybe you have good reason for doing so. 

But he’ll be a top 10 on every rankings list for sure. 

Never has a player more productive than Hunt taken such a beating on these boards. The guy has been exceptional. The only dips in production have been because or Reid's usage. Make no mistake, there will be some competition in the KC backfield next year, and Hunt will still be the bellcow.

There is no way he is not a top 12 overall player, regardless of format.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Never has a player more productive than Hunt taken such a beating on these boards. The guy has been exceptional. The only dips in production have been because or Reid's usage. Make no mistake, there will be some competition in the KC backfield next year, and Hunt will still be the bellcow.

There is no way he is not a top 12 overall player, regardless of format.

If I asked you in the preseason, “where would you expect to draft a 1900+ yard, 10 touchdown running back?”  I’m reasonably certain you would say “1st round” and maybe even “top 5 overall”

similarly, If I were to tell you in the preseason that your top five pick running back would put up 1845/10 in 16 games, you would  likely  say “sign me up!”

 It’s mind-boggling how low so many people are on him. That makes me think I can get him with a bottom five pick in the first round next year, or possibly even an early second round pick. That’s insane.  I’ve played fantasy football for a long long time, and I’ve never seen anything like that.  I cannot think of a similar comp. maybe Fred Taylor after a (rare) solid healthy season, or Jamall Lewis coming off of jail time (I had him that year - 8th round 2000+ RB).

But those players had track records of either injury or off field problems to depress their value.

Here we have a second-year player who could actually get better. Mind-boggling. 

 

[Hankmoody]

I don't see how anyone of sound mind takes Josh Gordon within the first 5 rounds. But, there are always those with high risk thresholds. 

If you're drafting him at all, that means he made it through the offseason clean.  And if he can do that that's a HUGE confidence boost that he can stay clean longer term.  With his talent and assuming they get a QB he's an easy one to overpay for.  Today, no, I can't risk that pick.  But in August that might be a whole different story.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you're drafting him at all, that means he made it through the offseason clean.  And if he can do that that's a HUGE confidence boost that he can stay clean longer term.  With his talent and assuming they get a QB he's an easy one to overpay for.  Today, no, I can't risk that pick.  But in August that might be a whole different story.

But will any expert/consensus rankings (FGB, Rotoworld, magazines, cbs, ESPN, etc) rank him top 12?

no chance in hell, IMO. 

 

[Hankmoody]

But will any expert/consensus rankings (FGB, Rotoworld, magazines, cbs, ESPN, etc) tank him top 12?

no chance in hell, IMO. 

k.  But what does that have to do with my list?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

k.  But what does that have to do with my list?

The topic is about the 1st round, and predicting how the experts/sites will rank which players as the consensus top 12. 

You put josh Gordon on your list.

So you are asserting that he will be universally considered a top 12 pick in 2018? 

K

hot take 

 

[Hankmoody]

Assuming 12-Team PPR (.1/1 Ru/Re, .1/2 Pa, 6 pt all TDs) give me your 1st round in 2018 redrafts. Feel free to hedge a bit & give rationalization for why you put who where if you’d like.

here’s my best guess -  note, this isn’t my ranking. Just a prediction for 1st round / ADP. 

For bonus points, gimme your two surprises, and 1 head scratcher! 

Hot take

It's my list, not a prediction of experts' that wasn't asked for.

Gordon is a surprise.

I gave rationalization.

 

[cantstop1999]

Jones could be this years Gurley, get him at the turn or 2nd round and he goes off. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hot take

It's my list, not a prediction of experts' that wasn't asked for.

Gordon is a surprise.

I gave rationalization.

Way to post off-topic then. Because as you quoted, I asked for what people thought the ADP would be.

all that selective bolding and you somehow forgot to bold “ADP”. 

I specifically said “here’s my best guess -  note, this isn’t my ranking. Just a prediction for 1st round / ADP” - you quoted that. 

ADP = average draft position.