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2018 Tight-End Position (1 Viewer)

NYRAGE

Footballguy
I wanted to get your thoughts on the TE position this year.

Last year I did really well by having Ertz on most of my teams while a lot of other teams scuffled at the TE position. Do you think the top tier of Gronk-Kelce-Ertz are worth the price this year?

Gronk had 69-1084-8 in 14 games. That's a pretty good year, but a bit of a down year for him. However, with no Cooks and Edleman out for a few, there should be even more targets for Gronk.  Of course he has the injury history, rumors wanting to retire, and Brady is getting up there in age. There comes some risk with drafting Gronk at the price it will cost. Of the three, he seems to have the most upside.

Kelce had 83-1038-8 in 15 games. The addition of Watkins (at that contract) should mean less targets for Kelce and Hill. Smith seemed a good fit for Kelce and Mahomes is essentially a rookie QB as far as experience goes. This probably means a drop-off in stats for Kelce in addition to a reduction in targets.

Ertz had 74-824-8 in 14 games. Ertz had similar career catches and yards, but a breakthrough 8 tds. With Philly seemingly wanting to utilize Goedert, does Ertz's td totals go back to prior levels? Plus Ertz has a history of getting banged up.

If passing on the paying for the top 3, then what's your target in the next tier?

 
I like your read on Kelce.  Last year he had 123 targets, with Hill getting 105.  Next in line was Hunt and Wilson each tied with 63.  Watkins will end up with more receptions than that, much less targets....and the overall number of pass attempts will likely come down as the offense regresses some. 

Just because they are so cheap, and under the radar due to recent injuries - give me Olsen and Reed at their prices and stock up on RBs/WRs earlier. 

 
I have pick 1.04, and I'm starting to strongly consider grabbing Gronk or even Kelce at 2.09 if they are still there - especially if Michael Thomas or Devante Adams are gone.

Gronk should be a no-brainer based on my projections but I just always feel like I'm playing catch up at WR and RB if I take a TE early. With that said, at this point I think I'd do it. With Mahomes at QB and Watkins added, there's risk with Kelce so I'm less certain I'd gab him there but likely would at 3.04 (I project him to be gone before then though).

If I do not take Gronk at 2.09 and miss on Kelce - unless Ertz or Engram fall more than I think they will (I think they go in Round 4), there's a decent chance I'll just wait until after Round 10 and grab a couple of guys like McDonald, Ebron and/or OJ Howard and hope for the best.

I just don't see the point of grabbing the TEs that come off the board in rounds 5-10, as I do not think they will make a difference. I'd rather grab RBs and WRs with those picks.

 
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I like your read on Kelce.  Last year he had 123 targets, with Hill getting 105.  Next in line was Hunt and Wilson each tied with 63.  Watkins will end up with more receptions than that, much less targets....and the overall number of pass attempts will likely come down as the offense regresses some. 

Just because they are so cheap, and under the radar due to recent injuries - give me Olsen and Reed at their prices and stock up on RBs/WRs earlier. 
I like the ADP of Reed also, and you can snag Vernon Davis at the end of the draft if you have the roster space.

 
I personally won't go for Gronk in the 2nd.  Not saying he's not worth it, but I just don't like how it puts me behind at RB/WR by using that high a pick on a TE.  I've been mocking a lot lately with the 10th pick (out of 12), and Gronk/Kelce are usually gone by the 2/3 turn, but Ertz is available at 3.10 pretty much every single time.  I've been mocking with the idea of going Zero RB in that league, and starting WR/WR/Ertz/WR there usually goes pretty easily. 

In a "normal draft strategy" my target this year is Engram near the 5/6 turn, or Olsen/Walker at the 6/7 turn.  If I miss out on those three, then I'm going to look for Reed way late, or try and snag Burton in the 10th/11th. 

 
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NYRAGE said:
I wanted to get your thoughts on the TE position this year.

Last year I did really well by having Ertz on most of my teams while a lot of other teams scuffled at the TE position. Do you think the top tier of Gronk-Kelce-Ertz are worth the price this year?

Gronk had 69-1084-8 in 14 games. That's a pretty good year, but a bit of a down year for him. However, with no Cooks and Edleman out for a few, there should be even more targets for Gronk.  Of course he has the injury history, rumors wanting to retire, and Brady is getting up there in age. There comes some risk with drafting Gronk at the price it will cost. Of the three, he seems to have the most upside.

Kelce had 83-1038-8 in 15 games. The addition of Watkins (at that contract) should mean less targets for Kelce and Hill. Smith seemed a good fit for Kelce and Mahomes is essentially a rookie QB as far as experience goes. This probably means a drop-off in stats for Kelce in addition to a reduction in targets.

Ertz had 74-824-8 in 14 games. Ertz had similar career catches and yards, but a breakthrough 8 tds. With Philly seemingly wanting to utilize Goedert, does Ertz's td totals go back to prior levels? Plus Ertz has a history of getting banged up.

If passing on the paying for the top 3, then what's your target in the next tier?
Last year I really thought there was 5 tight ends that could all finish the year as the number 1 tight end. Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Graham, and Reed. This year is totally different, if Gronk doesn't get hurt he will be the number 1 tight end and I don't think it will be close.

  1. As you pointed out Kelce has a new qb and another weapon outside with Watkins.
  2. Ertz now has to deal with another tight end and many people are already sayings he is a better redzone threat than Ertz.
  3. I watched Graham a lot last year and if it wasn't for Wilson being a top qb all year Graham would have fallen off the face of the earth, he looks old and slow and yes Rodgers is better than Wilson, but he has never been a guy that uses his tight end a lot.
  4. I love Reed, Smith loves throwing to the tight end and his price is well below everyone else, yes he comes with a ton of risk, but you know that and he is cheaper and you grab Davis or another good tight end to cover up for that.
  5. Njoku, I liked him before last night, now I really like him.
 
To me there are 3 viable strategies at TE this year

1) bite the bullet and take Gronk in Round 2.

2) Target Olsen, Walker and Reed in Rounds 6-8.  Back them up with another TE later.

3) Wait until round 9 and take two upside TEs like Burton, Njoku, Eifert, Kittle or OJ Howard.

Depends on the draft, I could go with any of these options.  Personally, I like Option 2 the best. 

I will be passing on Kelce, Ertz, Engram and Graham, unless they fall quite a bit.  I think you will be overpaying for all of these TEs.

 
To me there are 3 viable strategies at TE this year

1) bite the bullet and take Gronk in Round 2.

2) Target Olsen, Walker and Reed in Rounds 6-8.  Back them up with another TE later.

3) Wait until round 9 and take two upside TEs like Burton, Njoku, Eifert, Kittle or OJ Howard.

Depends on the draft, I could go with any of these options.  Personally, I like Option 2 the best. 

I will be passing on Kelce, Ertz, Engram and Graham, unless they fall quite a bit.  I think you will be overpaying for all of these TEs.
I've been finding that in TE premium leagues like FFPC best ball, option 2 is usually rounds 4-5. Reed was slipping into 6-8 earlier but seem to be creeping up. I'd guess Njoku moves up and option 3 is more like Howard, Cook, Eifert. 

The tough thing about the Option 3 guys is that you almost really need to stack 2-3 between rounds 9-14 if you want to have a chance at competing. The TEs left after 12 are dicey. Have to hope that guys like Butt, Wilson, Hurst, Gesicki do something. What's also tough is that you might be taking a guy who nets 40-50 pts just to fill the position and passing on a WR like Stills who could get close to 200.

 
Rudolph if i miss on gronk or kelce
This is just personal preference, but I would rather swing for the fences with Reed for the same price. Reed has a higher ceiling, and lower floor. I feel like Rudolph will be steady, but he carries some injury risk too. I believe these last 2 seasons were the first seasons he was healthy all year in awhile. 

 
Last year I really thought there was 5 tight ends that could all finish the year as the number 1 tight end. Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Graham, and Reed. This year is totally different, if Gronk doesn't get hurt he will be the number 1 tight end and I don't think it will be close.

  1. As you pointed out Kelce has a new qb and another weapon outside with Watkins.
  2. Ertz now has to deal with another tight end and many people are already sayings he is a better redzone threat than Ertz.
  3. I watched Graham a lot last year and if it wasn't for Wilson being a top qb all year Graham would have fallen off the face of the earth, he looks old and slow and yes Rodgers is better than Wilson, but he has never been a guy that uses his tight end a lot.
  4. I love Reed, Smith loves throwing to the tight end and his price is well below everyone else, yes he comes with a ton of risk, but you know that and he is cheaper and you grab Davis or another good tight end to cover up for that.
  5. Njoku, I liked him before last night, now I really like him.
This is basically where I’m at although not as down on Ertz. I’ve done 6 redrafts so far and I’ve taken Jordan Reed every time except once where I have Njoku. Reed has the best value of all the top guys, imo. I don’t like spending a 2-4 round pick on TE this season. 

 
This is just personal preference, but I would rather swing for the fences with Reed for the same price. Reed has a higher ceiling, and lower floor. I feel like Rudolph will be steady, but he carries some injury risk too. I believe these last 2 seasons were the first seasons he was healthy all year in awhile. 
I really like Kyle Rudolph this year and think he is under-valued. I would take him over Reed and Walker, personally. We know Rudolph is good for ~800 yards and possibly double digit TDs. John DeFilippo loves to create mismatches with his tight ends... a lot of the success of Ertz and Burton was due to him IMO. Recall Gary Barnidge's 1000-yd season with the Browns in 2015. And we all know Kirk Cousins loves his tight ends.

 
I really like Kyle Rudolph this year and think he is under-valued. I would take him over Reed and Walker, personally. We know Rudolph is good for ~800 yards and possibly double digit TDs. John DeFilippo loves to create mismatches with his tight ends... a lot of the success of Ertz and Burton was due to him IMO. Recall Gary Barnidge's 1000-yd season with the Browns in 2015. And we all know Kirk Cousins loves his tight ends.
Good post! Didn’t realize the coaching aspect. Plus Cousins also has proven to like his TEs. 

 
this has been my tight end strategy:

mid to late 2nd: Get Gronk. I would take him over Michael Thomas, AJ Green, Davante Adams, and RBs like McKinnon/CMC/Freeman. I think he can replicate the 1200 yard/12+ TDs we saw a few years ago (albeit, when he was healthier). I like the schedule, I like the Patriots, he should be in for a career year in targets. And I like Gronk.

rounds 6-8: See if I can get Graham, Olsen, Rudolph or Walker in that order. Kind of depends on which WRs and RBs are available. I find myself taking Rudolph very late because he's not a sexy pick and people pass on him.

rounds 10-13: Usually I target Eifert, OJ Howard, and Ebron in that order. In fact, I probably have way too much Eifert, but the reward > risk at his ADP.

Rounds 14+: Usually target Brate, Cook, ASJ, and RSJ.

Super late rounds: Jake Butt, or (rarely) guys like Michael Roberts or Gerald Everett.

 
This is just personal preference, but I would rather swing for the fences with Reed for the same price. Reed has a higher ceiling, and lower floor. I feel like Rudolph will be steady, but he carries some injury risk too. I believe these last 2 seasons were the first seasons he was healthy all year in awhile. 
reed is playing on two surgically repaired feet.....his ADP is way down there though so he is a good grab at the price, but he killed me past two seasons....pass for me

 
Some good comments above. Thanks.

I've done 20 Best Ball Draft N Go Leagues so far. 16 auctions. They are 10-teamers with a couple of 12-teamers sprinkled in. So far, Gronk has gone from $20-$30. Kelce from $20-26. Ertz from $18-24.

I've probably grabbed the top 3 in maybe 4-6 drafts, with a mixture of Olsen or Rudolph in another 4 drafts. About 50% of the time I've gone cheap with Njoku (about 90% of the time for some reason) and several other cheap TEs.  Getting one of the top 3 usually means hurting at RB depth which is like a mortal sin to me.

I love Reed, but I find it hard to believe that he will stay healthy. If I have room, I usually take a flyer on Davis, but agree with the above that Reed usually comes fairly cheap, but almost necessitates carrying 3 TEs which isn't always optimal.  I'll have to fine-tune my strategy before I do my season-long drafts.

 
Gronk is a good value in the mid to late 2nd.

If I miss out on him, then I'll probably wait till late and go with something like Eifert+Njoku. Although I might get someone like Walker in the mid rounds, and if it's TE premium then I'm less content to wait.

 
Last year I really thought there was 5 tight ends that could all finish the year as the number 1 tight end. Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Graham, and Reed. This year is totally different, if Gronk doesn't get hurt he will be the number 1 tight end and I don't think it will be close.

  1. As you pointed out Kelce has a new qb and another weapon outside with Watkins.
  2. Ertz now has to deal with another tight end and many people are already sayings he is a better redzone threat than Ertz.
  3. I watched Graham a lot last year and if it wasn't for Wilson being a top qb all year Graham would have fallen off the face of the earth, he looks old and slow and yes Rodgers is better than Wilson, but he has never been a guy that uses his tight end a lot.
  4. I love Reed, Smith loves throwing to the tight end and his price is well below everyone else, yes he comes with a ton of risk, but you know that and he is cheaper and you grab Davis or another good tight end to cover up for that.
  5. Njoku, I liked him before last night, now I really like him.
We have a different perspective on Graham. 

Name a receiver that Russell Wilson has had good rapport with not named Doug Baldwin.  Wilson's greatness come from his heart, his legs, and Doug Baldwin.  

I watched Graham languish in Seattle with contempt, pining for the good old days in NO when he had an accomplished passer throwing him the ball.  

Now you probably expect me to say huge year for Graham, but I'm not saying that.  I just don't put Graham's lack of Seattle production on Graham.

 
We have a different perspective on Graham. 

Name a receiver that Russell Wilson has had good rapport with not named Doug Baldwin.  Wilson's greatness come from his heart, his legs, and Doug Baldwin.  

I watched Graham languish in Seattle with contempt, pining for the good old days in NO when he had an accomplished passer throwing him the ball.  

Now you probably expect me to say huge year for Graham, but I'm not saying that.  I just don't put Graham's lack of Seattle production on Graham.
I am going by the eye ball test. Graham looked fast and a nightmare matchup in New Orleans. When I seen him run last year I thought he had 30 lb ankle weights on. 

 
Good topic. I have pick 11 in a 12 team standard and am considering Gronk at the top of the 2nd. 

If Kelce and Ertz take small step backs, then that just makes Gronk even more valuable. I’m just having a hard time convincing myself to take him over guys like Odell or Julio at the same spot.

I guess to be more comfortable with it you have to have late WRs you’re confident in to make up for it. 

 
matttyl said:
Where's some good current ADP numbers?
You can go to www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com and see how mocks are going.  His current ADP is 8.2 in 12-team PPR leagues.  He is being drafted as TE9, between Delanie Walker and Trey Burton.  And Vernon Davis is currently going undrafted in shallow-bench leagues.

 
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To me there are 3 viable strategies at TE this year

1) bite the bullet and take Gronk in Round 2.

2) Target Olsen, Walker and Reed in Rounds 6-8.  Back them up with another TE later.

3) Wait until round 9 and take two upside TEs like Burton, Njoku, Eifert, Kittle or OJ Howard.

Depends on the draft, I could go with any of these options.  Personally, I like Option 2 the best. 

I will be passing on Kelce, Ertz, Engram and Graham, unless they fall quite a bit.  I think you will be overpaying for all of these TEs.
I think this is a perfect description of the situation. I have been avoiding option 2, so for me it is either Gronk or option 3.

Njoku just climbed to the front of that tier, though. I did an FBG draft today and he went in the 6th. That's a TE premium league but he has been going closer to the 8th to 10th in those.

 
I have had Kelce as my keeper since he started so my life has been easy but outside looking in I hope Gronk falls to an acceptable spot (taking him ahead of OBJ is ridiculous) and if he doesn’t it’s committee time with Reed. Shoot for Clay, McDonald or even Butt to pair which shouldn’t cost you much. 

Or honestly Brate is one of the few I like solo as long as you accept you are settling for avg at that position but only costs you one pick. 

 
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It looks like Engram is going ahead of Olsen now in some leagues.  Thoughts?

Is Engram's upside better than the reliability of Olsen (ignoring Olsen's injury last year of course)?

 
It looks like Engram is going ahead of Olsen now in some leagues.  Thoughts?

Is Engram's upside better than the reliability of Olsen (ignoring Olsen's injury last year of course)?
I am very down on Olsen. He is 33 and Cam usually has around 20 touchdown passes and under 4k yards. He also has to deal with the most weapons Cam has ever had. Moore looks legit, McCaffery looks great, Anderson will get some run, Funchess is a decent receiver. 

I would much rather swing at Engram, OBJ will draw the most targets, but will take a safety from the middle of the field. I like Shepard, but I like Engram better. Barkely will also help keep the linebackers from dropping to far back into coverage. 

 
I am very down on Olsen. He is 33 and Cam usually has around 20 touchdown passes and under 4k yards. He also has to deal with the most weapons Cam has ever had. Moore looks legit, McCaffery looks great, Anderson will get some run, Funchess is a decent receiver. 

I would much rather swing at Engram, OBJ will draw the most targets, but will take a safety from the middle of the field. I like Shepard, but I like Engram better. Barkely will also help keep the linebackers from dropping to far back into coverage. 
I am way down on Engram myself. Guy is a talent, but I think he is good for like a best ball format and will be only good when the right match-ups are in place. I think Olsen will get more targets, and I can just see Engram with some weeks of 1-2 targets

I agree about Olsen a bit though too. Personally, once past that top 3 I am wiling to wait on TE and do a bit of TE streaming depending on your league set-up. I can see weeks where a guy like Butt or Ebron can have a good match-up and excel. Take whatever TE is playing the Browns or Colts and you should do just fine.

 
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It looks like Engram is going ahead of Olsen now in some leagues.  Thoughts?

Is Engram's upside better than the reliability of Olsen (ignoring Olsen's injury last year of course)?
I'm not big on either of them. I think Engram is surpassed in the pecking order by the more sure handed Shepard. As for Olsen, the last time he put up fantasy stats was when CMC and Moore were still in college. I think those two will suck up a lot of targets that would've gone to Olsen in the past. 

 
I am willing to pay the premium for Gronk this year. Even if he can give you 13-14 healthy starts- his ppg average is an overwhelming advantage at the position. When he's hurt it not like you take a zero. You stream a decent match-up TE those 2-3 weeks and grab some points from the position.

The only downside I see with Gronk is if he's slightly banged up and the division/home field is locked up late in the season. They may choose to give him extra time to get fully healthy instead of thrusting a 85% Gronk into the line up cause they need a win late in the year. I am just tired of being disappointed by those middle round options (disclaimer: didn't draft Ertz last year) each year many of whom have injury history themselves...

 
I am willing to pay the premium for Gronk this year. Even if he can give you 13-14 healthy starts- his ppg average is an overwhelming advantage at the position. When he's hurt it not like you take a zero. You stream a decent match-up TE those 2-3 weeks and grab some points from the position.

The only downside I see with Gronk is if he's slightly banged up and the division/home field is locked up late in the season. They may choose to give him extra time to get fully healthy instead of thrusting a 85% Gronk into the line up cause they need a win late in the year. I am just tired of being disappointed by those middle round options (disclaimer: didn't draft Ertz last year) each year many of whom have injury history themselves...
I agree about the advantage at TE with Gronk, but I've done 20+ auctions already and the team I liked the least was the one I took Gronk. I've been fading the top 3 for the most part. I guess if I were to buy Gronk, I'd have to alter my rb/wr strategy a bit. My early Best Ball drafts were basically experiments with different strategies. Now it's time to fine-tune strategies. 

I don't like those middle options either.

 
I'm rolling with Nick Vannett this year, #### it. If Shotty is good at one thing it's targeting his TEs.

But in all honestly I do see myself dumpster diving this year. 

 
I'm rolling with Njoku>Shaheen >Thomas as my TE stack this year for my dyno league. I'll muddle through even if this group doesn't explode this season. 

 
So don't do what I did....TLDR version is I didn't even draft a TE in a 10 team redraft the other night.

Was randomly slotted the 10th pick in a 10 team snake draft. Fine with me.  I'm not going to take Gronk or Kelce at either 10 or 11, but would consider either at 30 if they made it there....they didn't (but Joe Mixon did, woot!).  Still too early for my taste for Ertz, who went 38 and thus didn't make it back to me.  No problem.  Graham went 48 and was thinking about him at the 50-51 turn, oh well - landed my two starting WRs there.  Engram, Walker, Olsen, Rudolph, T Burton, and Njoku all went between 51 and my next pick at 70. 

Honestly should have taken Reed here - but outsmarted even myself.  Was thinking that since it's only a 10 team league, and with 10 TEs already taken (meaning one team already has a backup TE) I could slide another round or two and get him at 90 - drafted two more WRs so that position was done (as was starting and flex RB and my QB).  Reed goes at 85. 

Good players still on the board, so got Ingram and Luck (backup QB) at 90-91 turn.  Settled on taking Ben Watson or OJ Howard late....then they went while I was too busy drafting Chris Carson and Adrian Peterson (mostly for the laugh, but c'mon in round 12?).  Kittle, Doyle, Brate, and Hurst all taken (I think mostly by teams that were yahoo autodrafting at that point and the system gives them backups at all non kicker positions).  Bottom line, I got great RB depth....but no TE.  Don't be me.  Can get McDonald, Ebron, Hooper, Cook, Clay or ASJ tomorrow for free. 

 
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Good post! Didn’t realize the coaching aspect. Plus Cousins also has proven to like his TEs. 
True that Cousins liked throwing to the TE in WAS, but MIN will be the first time he has two great WRs in Diggs and Thielen and a very good pass catching back in Cook.  In WAS, Reed was pretty much the #1 option for Cousins, when healthy.  Rudolph will have a lot of competition for targets.  He does have 8-9 TD potential, but I think he is going to have to score 7+ TDs to bring back the value of his draft spot.

 
I seem to be in the minority when it comes to Kelce, as I think he has a monster year this year. Mahomes can throw it deep--no doubt, which means Hill will be drawing bombs. But he will also be drawing the # 1 corner on each team the Chiefs face. Everything I have read says they will be seeing A LOT of shut down corners, and that KC has the worst strength of schedule for WRs. I don't put too much stock in SOS, but it is a factor for me. Now because Mahomes can run it himself, (and with Kareem Hunt there), the defensive front cannot afford to cheat back to help out. Will Sammy draw some targets ? Of course. But how many ? Wilson is gone---he had 63 targets (and 42 catches). West is gone, and he had 34 targets. Meanwhile, Kelce will rule the underneath routes. He had 123 targets last year (83 catches) and I don't seriously see that going down all that much. Indeed, his targets have gone up every year of his career (87, 100, 117 and 123). Plus he does not miss games (only 1 in his career, and that was week 17 last year). Speaking of missing games, if there is one thing that Sammy DOES do, it's miss games. Throw in the fact that the Chiefs D is so-so at best this year, and I think they are going to be in a lot of higher scoring games. I personally see a career year for Kelce ahead. 

 
I think Austin Hooper is kind of flying under the radar as a cheap, valuable pick at TE for potential breakout. While he has more competition with Ridley now, he did flash as a rookie with a 14.3 YPR and last year seemed like an acclimation year to Sarkisian's offense. Despite that, he improved his catch rate (to 75% with 49 catches), had over 500 yards receiving, and had a stretch over 6 games where he averaged 4 catches for 39 yards.

Atlanta let Toiolo walk and don't really have a proven TE behind him unless you're eyeing Logan Paulsen or Eric Saubert. He could be a legitimate 3 Down TE on an offense that should take a step forward in Year 2 with their offensive scheme.

I don't think he'd challenge TE1 numbers, unless his TDs rise dramatically, but he could be a bit of a sneaky late pick/FA pick up. Give him just 2 TDs last year and he would've jumped up from TE17 to TE10 in the year end rankings alongside guys like Witten and Hunter Henry.

 

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