2018 - What We Learned (1 Viewer)

[Jayded]

The biggest thing I unlearned and lucked out was ignoring byes and same-team drafting. 

This was a year of some high consolidated offenses and those not afraid to pair benefited greatly. (Ex. Drafting multiple Chiefs or Rams, etc)

I drafted on the 12-13 turn this year and stared down a few teammate situations I gambled on correctly. I could have done fine with the alternates I remember, but I believed in the talent and went with my gut. It meant working around bye situations, but since the talent panned out, it worked out ok this year. 

 

[zftcg]

My No. 1 lesson from fantasy this year:

Talent >>>>>>> opportunity >>>>>>>>>> past production >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> narratives

I really tried to ignore stuff like "Who else are they going to throw it to?", "He's averaged an addition 5.5 PPG in even years as opposed to odd years when the AL wins the World Series and there's a Republican in the White House" and "His wife just left him for his girlfriend and now he's really motivated to have a great season in a contract year in order to prove them all wrong." Instead, I made the bet that if a guy's talented enough, he will produce. That led me to target guys like Saquon and Zeke in the first round even when their situations looked iffy. (Though of course it's hardly foolproof; the same calculation could have led me to draft David Johnson if I had been picking a couple spots earlier.)

As far as evaluating talent, I relied on fantasy analysts who watched film instead of the ones who quoted stats or narratives. In particular, Harris Football was super-helpful. It was largely based on his recommendations that I targeted Hill, Cooks and Kittle and stayed away from "opportunity guys" like Royce Freeman.

The other thing I (re)learned: the famous Billy Bean maxim that "My s##t don't work in the playoffs." I had two teams that were really strong -- including one that was probably the most talented fantasy roster I'd ever assembled -- and they both took dumps in the semis. Nothing I could have done, just bad luck across the board.

 

[mphtrilogy]

Stock up on the backup rbs throughout the season, I grabbed nick chubb 3 weeks before the hyde trade in a short bench league and he was a difference maker.

trust your gut, it’s part of the fun of the hobby... 

 

[Tau837]

I had reaffirmed that you have to decide and act on players early, as opposed to "waiting to see them prove it on the field."

I am in two dynasty leagues. In the offseason, I traded Elliott for 1.1 in one league and Antonio Brown for 1.1 in the other, and I drafted Barkley in both cases. IMO I won both trades, and would not have been able to execute either trade had I waited.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Lots of talk about ancient Gronk, who has a lengthy injury history.  Gronk is only a few months older than Kelce.  Worry about Kelce keeping it up?

 

[Lionsfan011]

Continue working the waiver wire until you've been eliminated from the playoffs.

I saw quite a few people with end-of-season pickups win the playoffs or flip them for future assets. There were so much good free agents available on the waiver wire in non-dynasty leagues at the end of the year. QB had L Jackson and J Allen, RB had Ware/D Williams and Samuels, WR with Pettis and to a lesser extent Z Jones. You might have even been lucky enough to have guys like D Henry or Engram sitting out there. Heck I'm sure I'm missing a few guys too.

 

[Gally]

If you are going to take a chance in an early round on a hold out (see Bell, Le'Veon) invest an earlier than normal pick on his handcuff (or at the very least a passable replacement level player at the same position).

Wait on QB, but once you pull the lever on QB1 invest in a QB2 before everyone else has their QB1 secured.  (leverage baby...at the very least and quite often your QB2 becomes your QB1 and you wonder what the hell you were thinking when you took QB1).

In IDP leagues, LB used to be a position of scarcity to get an absolute stud, now it seems there is not a heck of a lot of difference between LB 3 and LB 20.  So don't spend a high pick on an LB when you can easily fill out your LB from the waiver wire.

Also in IDP leagues - everyone assumes LB puts up better numbers than DB...but this year I noticed I was starting DBs in my flex way more often than LBs...so grab those SS/FS when everyone else is taking LB3 or LB4.

It is a passing league - so people are all enamored with zero RB theory - screw that just target great pass catching RBs who are also RB1 (see McCaffery. Christian). 

The thing with DB's is they are like kickers.  They are so close in scoring and you never know which ones will be in the top 10.  Every year at least half of the top 10 DB's come out of nowhere so you can always find scoring on the waiver wire.  I would still rather use my draft capital on LB/DL than on DB's.

I do agree that there were a lot of viable LB's this year especially with guys like Jones and Mosely having down years. 

Using DB's over LB's will be heavily dependent upon on your scoring system.  I don't think that is a FF wide comment. 

 

[zftcg]

Lots of talk about ancient Gronk, who has a lengthy injury history.  Gronk is only a few months older than Kelce.  Worry about Kelce keeping it up?

I think it's safe to assume that all TEs have a short shelf-life. It really may be the most brutal position in football -- blocking people who are bigger than you and running routes across the middle of the field against big-hitting LBs and safeties.

 

[Gally]

One of my biggest take aways from the last few years in IDP leagues is that everyone can find offensive commentary easily and many have the same information so offense scoring is fairly similar across the board in my leagues.  Everyone is "good" at drafting offense.  

What separates the good teams is the ability to research and find IDP information to be able to wait on no-name players that have similar production as the name players that tend to go 4-5 rounds earlier.  it allows you to stockpile offensive dart throws to increase your chances of finding the breakout while still being at the top of the IDP side because you know more details than your league mates.  Spend most of your draft prep on the defensive side and it is a huge advantage come draft day. 

 

[iamkoza]

studs and duds worked again this year.... 12 team auction redraft, spent 85% of my money on Gurley, AB, evans, cooper... then worked waivers and FA to build the rest of my roster... goal is to get in to the playoffs not have the best week 1 lineup. i love working waivers and making trades so it fits me perfectly.

having an elite TE matters: I definitely have a rudimentary understanding of VBD... but i do understand points scored and when the difference between TE4 and TE10 is nearly double... that matters and gives you a huge advantage.... in the semis in my two leagues... of the 8 teams 7 had top 5 TE's in their lineups.

I've been doing this for a few years, but I try as hard as possible to avoid drafting any RB, WR, TE over the age of 28. the data shows these players decline off career averages and in some cases can fall off a cliff... granted i did draft AB in one and keep him in the other so of course there are exceptions... but i feel it is a rule of thumb that is simple and has worked for me. especially in the middle rounds of drafts... give the younger guy a shot vs. hoping for a rebound year from an aging vet

i'd rather invest in a  RBBC for a team that is a good NFL offense then try to chase RBBC's on bad NFL teams... it just never seems to materialize in to a viable fantasy option.

 

[renesauz]

It’s still a good idea to wait on QB. 40 points separated 4-10 in my league. I got Ben in the 9th I believe and he finished 2nd. 

Thanks. That one is interesting as mid year I was hearing a lot of "Waiting on a QB is no longer a good strategy" talk. I've been thinking about this one. 

Not so sure about this. Waited on QB in one league, took Alex Smith, and struggled all year at the position. I think "waiting on QB" only works if you can correctly identify which QB will out-perform his draft slot.

But that's kind of the entire game of fantasy football, isn't it?

I think the key is to always try to grab guys that will out-perform where you're drafting them. Sometimes that might mean putting off QB (or another position), sometimes it won't. It's nice to not have to worry about a specific spot though.

 

[cockroach]

Not so sure about this. Waited on QB in one league, took Alex Smith, and struggled all year at the position. I think "waiting on QB" only works if you can correctly identify which QB will out-perform his draft slot.

But that's kind of the entire game of fantasy football, isn't it?

I think the key is to always try to grab guys that will out-perform where you're drafting them. Sometimes that might mean putting off QB (or another position), sometimes it won't. It's nice to not have to worry about a specific spot though.

You'll always need to worry about some spot though.  FF management is like holding back a bursting dike.  You plug a hole here and another leak bursts over there. 

But on that note, what I think I learned again this year is that my FF decisions (at least lineup wise) are best made swiftly and decisively.  I set my lineup on Tues and then recheck it once or twice the rest of the week.  No checking "experts" to doubt myself (although I do check out rankings every few weeks to see what they're saying) or mulling over 50-50s based on people's posts or trends or stats.  Not to say I'm flipping coins and putting no thought or research into it, but for me, I don't get much return on anything past the basic effort of watching as much of the games as I can and keeping an eye on the trends.  I do find myself reading FF stuff to pass the time commuting or pooping, but who doesn't?

 

[loser]

Not so sure about this. Waited on QB in one league, took Alex Smith, and struggled all year at the position. I think "waiting on QB" only works if you can correctly identify which QB will out-perform his draft slot.

But that's kind of the entire game of fantasy football, isn't it?

I think the key is to always try to grab guys that will out-perform where you're drafting them. Sometimes that might mean putting off QB (or another position), sometimes it won't. It's nice to not have to worry about a specific spot though.

 Just one example of this, our QB matchup in the finals pitted Prescott vs. Winston (although Cam was put on the shelf). It's most always a good decision to wait on QB imo.

 

[Elevencents]

Not so sure about this. Waited on QB in one league, took Alex Smith, and struggled all year at the position. I think "waiting on QB" only works if you can correctly identify which QB will out-perform his draft slot.

But that's kind of the entire game of fantasy football, isn't it?

I think the key is to always try to grab guys that will out-perform where you're drafting them. Sometimes that might mean putting off QB (or another position), sometimes it won't. It's nice to not have to worry about a specific spot though.

You chose to pick Alex Smith, who did not have a good year. That doesn’t really have anything to do with waiting on QB. I’m assuming there were still a handful of QB’s you could have chosen that would have been reliable starters all year. 

 

[cockroach]

It’s still a good idea to wait on QB. 40 points separated 4-10 in my league. I got Ben in the 9th I believe and he finished 2nd. 

Thanks. That one is interesting as mid year I was hearing a lot of "Waiting on a QB is no longer a good strategy" talk. I've been thinking about this one. 

Not so sure about this. Waited on QB in one league, took Alex Smith, and struggled all year at the position. I think "waiting on QB" only works if you can correctly identify which QB will out-perform his draft slot.

Yea, but who are these QBs people took early that were so great at midseason?   Rodgers and Brady were 10th and 11th through 7 weeks.  Fitz, Tubisky and Mahomes are some of the top guys that were way late.   And the gap between 2 and 11th was 4 pts.... or a random TD in a 7 week span. 

Mahomes is the only guy ahead of a huge pack of about 15 or 16 QBs that scored pretty similar.   And when the names at the back of that are Wilson, Brady, Wentz, Mayfield... it shows again that next year you can wait there and still find a guy in the 8th or later.

 

[leave a whisper]

with as much info there is about fantasy football (there is no off season) leagues need way deeper benches

owners who "stream" and work the wire multiple times weekly are annoying  --- reward "team builders" on draft day with 20-25+ man rosters

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Stock up on the backup rbs throughout the season

Most of my bench is rbs. Wrs and some other positions are much easier to snag off the wire when you need one.

 

[Joe Bryant]

with as much info there is about fantasy football (there is no off season) leagues need way deeper benches

owners who "stream" and work the wire multiple times weekly are annoying  --- reward "team builders" on draft day with 20-25+ man rosters

I think there's value in this.

It's why I hate stuff like first come first serve for FA pickups. That means the guy with the most time to spend online wins. It shouldn't be about who has the most free time. It should be about who can best predict what will happen. 

 

[cockroach]

I think there's value in this.

It's why I hate stuff like first come first serve for FA pickups. That means the guy with the most time to spend online wins. It shouldn't be about who has the most free time. It should be about who can best predict what will happen. 

That's exactly what those guys are doing, but on a shorter time frame.  On a spectrum of daily FF to draft and go bestball, where's the sweet spot with that? 

(Thinking more specifically to streamers in that comment, FCFS should be dead.)

 

[Joe Bryant]

That's exactly what those guys are doing, but on a shorter time frame.  On a spectrum of daily FF to draft and go bestball, where's the sweet spot with that? 

(Thinking more specifically to streamers in that comment, FCFS should be dead.)

For sure, 

I'm saying things like Free Agent allocation should be a thing where it has a deadline to submit bids or waivers and it's done so everyone has a shot. Not on a system where the first guy to claim a player gets him. That rewards the guy who has the most time to sit online. And penalizes the guy with other time commitments. Not many do that anymore but it used to be more common. 

 

[leftcoastheel]

Some of this has been stated but...

1. Elite RB1s are officially irreplaceable.

2. As a corollary to 1, handcuffs are critical again.  Grab the big RB1, then grab his handcuff, then grab is handcuff's handcuff.  I did this with K. Hunt and wound up cycling through Ware and then in the playoffs/'ship with a strong Williams performance.  Same with Fornette/Yeldon.  Bell/Conner/Samuels.  Gordon/Ekeler/Jackson.  Elliot/Smith.  Johnson/Edmonds.  It sucks if you have shallow rosters, but I believe the circumstance is real.  There are teams who prefer committees and teams who have workhorses.  Grab the workhorse and grab the backup.  I also believe RB success is clearly tied to the overall offensive performance and offensive philosophy of the team moreso than underlying talent of the RB (I think this was clearly demonstrated this year in PIT and LAC and KC, not to open a whole 'nother debate), but under this assumption, quality handcuffs are very valuable.

3. Grab other guys' handcuffs and stash them if they're not taking them.  Conner was a big asset in the FFPC this year.  Flex the handcuff when your opponent's lead back F's up or gets injured.

4. There is so much passing in the league now that pass catching backs are critical - and that you can get good WRs in the middle rounds... and even off the wire!!!

5. Injury risk is real.  Avoid guys coming off injuries, especially in the early rounds even if they are great backs.  These guys can derail your team (see Fornette and Cook).

6. I am used to taking QBs in the later rounds, but I think I will move up a few rounds next year.  Getting stuck with Stafford/Keenum puts you at a brutal disadvantage, because you waited too long on QBs due to grabbing later round lottery pick guys.  

7. Already noted, but KEEP FAAB DOLLARS THROUGH THE END OF THE SEASON.  Ugh... screwed me bad on two FFPC teams.

8. NE has become a much more balanced team, but there will be a ton of target gaps in New England next year, and if they get a talented WR or TE, could be great value on draft day.

I have a lot more reflection to do on the season, but those are some of my thoughts on trends/high level strategy for now.

 

[zftcg]

Not so sure about this. Waited on QB in one league, took Alex Smith, and struggled all year at the position. I think "waiting on QB" only works if you can correctly identify which QB will out-perform his draft slot.

You misunderstand the late-round QB strategy. There is always a risk of missing on a pick, as Brady/Rodgers owners learned this season. The idea behind waiting on QB is that if you do miss, you didn't give up a lot of draft capital and can more easily move on from the guy and stream the position. I actually made a conscious decision this year (even started a thread about it in August) to not only wait on QBs, but to lay off the high-profile, but low-end, QB1s like Stafford, Rivers and Ben. Not because I didn't think they'd do well (two of those three did) but because I knew that if they didn't pan out, it would be much harder psychologically to move on from them. (As it turned out, I hit on both of my QB picks: Luck and Mahomes, so this never came into play).

If you do have to stream, it can be psychologically taxing to try to identify the right candidates every week, but on average you should be able to generate low-end QB1 production without spending as much draft capital.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

The thing with DB's is they are like kickers.  They are so close in scoring and you never know which ones will be in the top 10.  Every year at least half of the top 10 DB's come out of nowhere so you can always find scoring on the waiver wire.  I would still rather use my draft capital on LB/DL than on DB's.

I do agree that there were a lot of viable LB's this year especially with guys like Jones and Mosely having down years. 

Using DB's over LB's will be heavily dependent upon on your scoring system.  I don't think that is a FF wide comment. 

True - my point of reference was just from straight up tackle numbers - points given for PD/FF/Sack/Int/TD vary so much.  I guess I got used to grabbing top tier LBs who were over 100 tackles every year and this year the only real "stud" LB was Darius Leonard.  There were other very good LBs - but in that same scoring level were a bunch of DBs and even a few DLs.  That said I am super high on Roquan Smith and Jaylon Smith of the younger guys at LB.  The old guard is fading a bit, hell even Mr Reliable Bobby Wagner had an off year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The elite TE advantage is real.  

This im taking kelce ertz or kittle next year

 

[DropKick]

Yeah, the feedback I've gotten in this thread has caused me to rethink my rethinking of the situation. My big mistake this year was owning Josh Gordon on the two teams I ran. That and just a bad Week 15 cost me. But I won the championship in the other, so I'm happy. 

But thanks for the feedback, guys.  

I'll give you a little more feed back.  Rather than carry a single D and use a roster spot on a RB flyer, I decided two quality defenses would allow me to play the best match-up and get an edge at the position.  Targeted the Bears after the Mack trade and picked up the discarded Vikings who had struggled.  Vikings righted the ship and the combo was a major strength.

ETA: Defensive scoring is significant in this league and the attention paid to D/ST is surprisingly light

 

[zftcg]

This im taking kelce ertz or kittle next year

See, this is exactly what makes me think the price on them will be too high next year.

I also suspect this year's total dumpster fire at TE will prove to be an outlier, and we'll see significant regression next year. My strategy for TE has always been to target a mid-range guy and hope he blows up. Worked last year with Ertz, and this year with Kittle (though not in the league where I got Burton).

Next year, I could definitely see myself going for the likes of Howard or Njoku.

 

[DropKick]

Lots of talk about ancient Gronk, who has a lengthy injury history.  Gronk is only a few months older than Kelce.  Worry about Kelce keeping it up?

I worry about EVERYONE keeping it up.  Finding balance in roster construction is key in dynasty leagues.  You need immediate depth to account for byes but you need long term potential too.  I have Hunter Henry and Dallas Goedert behind Kelce today.    Feel good about the position in the long run although I felt "at risk" during the season given Hunter's injury and Goedert's role.

 

[rockaction]

I'll give you a little more feed back.  Rather than carry a single D and use a roster spot on a RB flyer, I decided two quality defenses would allow me to play the best match-up and get an edge at the position.  Targeted the Bears after the Mack trade and picked up the discarded Vikings who had struggled.  Vikings righted the ship and the combo was a major strength.

ETA: Defensive scoring is significant in this league and the attention paid to D/ST is surprisingly light

I'm the most active owner in our league by far, so I don't like to carry two defenses because I'm always trying to hit on an end-of-the-bench guy, which I have at times. But it's definitely something to consider and I know a lot of people like to do just that.  

 

[Spike]

A simple one - take WRs and TEs who have top-10 QBs. 

Yes, there are exceptions but not many. 

 

[DropKick]

I'm the most active owner in our league by far, so I don't like to carry two defenses because I'm always trying to hit on an end-of-the-bench guy, which I have at times. But it's definitely something to consider and I know a lot of people like to do just that.  

Typically, me to a "T".

Last season (17) I was getting crushed by the Jaguars of the league and felt it best to be highly competitive at every position.  Could have been content with the Bears but the schedule held some challenges (Rams, Packers, etc.)  Just felt that the second "D" would see my line-up more than the flyer.

For the record, one flyer I considered mid season was Rams RB John Kelly.   Felt there was a good chance that Gurley could sit if the Rams had things sewn up.  In the end, I wasn't far off but it wasn't Kelly who get the opportunity.  The point is that flyer is usually a long shot.

 

[miqws]

I think there's value in this.

It's why I hate stuff like first come first serve for FA pickups. That means the guy with the most time to spend online wins. It shouldn't be about who has the most free time. It should be about who can best predict what will happen. 

One of my leagues is first come first serve.  It has taught me to pick up players more preemptively.  Great early call by one of the FBG staffers on Gus Edwards.

 

[Doug B]

You can’t predict catastrophic injuries but you know everyone gets dinged up.  If Derrick Henry gets a tweaked shoulder is he playing next week?  If they can make it happen.  Same with guys like Michael Thomas, Hopkins, Ertz, TY Hilton, Kenny Golladay, Drew Brees.  Spencer Ware as a Starter? Nah, if he’s dinged up we’ll let Williams carry it.  

Falcons WR Julio Jones is another great example. Not only is he vital to Atlanta's passing game, Jones is very willing to play through pain.

 

[Henry Ford]

Falcons WR Julio Jones is another great example. Not only is he vital to Atlanta's passing game, Jones is very willing to play through pain.

And has to.  Offense doesn't work without him.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

See, this is exactly what makes me think the price on them will be too high next year.

I also suspect this year's total dumpster fire at TE will prove to be an outlier, and we'll see significant regression next year. My strategy for TE has always been to target a mid-range guy and hope he blows up. Worked last year with Ertz, and this year with Kittle (though not in the league where I got Burton).

Next year, I could definitely see myself going for the likes of Howard or Njoku.

Kelce and ertz are worth 3rd round picks....kittle....juat behind them next year

 

[Black]

Fade injury and suspension players (or holdouts...): Leveon, Ingram.

Even in redraft, don’t worry about a player’s situation too much if you believe in the talent (Chubb behind Hyde, D.Pettis...).  More often than not, they’ll get their chance.  Roster good players on the end of your bench instead of a known RB3/WR3.

Delay drafting QB.  There’s always a QB to stream...I won my league with Fitzpatrick then Lamar Jackson.

Most unreal trends will end up self-correcting: either the NFL teams will course correct and counter, or the excessive usage will result in injury.  So enjoy the ride if you have a surging player, but prepare for the inevitable.

Depth wins.  Always cull the end of your roster adding upside players.

in redraft, build for the playoff weeks.  Watch matchups (once you get a few weeks in) and plan for injuries.

DST is the easiest position to stream or luck into this year’s big thing.  Get ready to cut bait on your drafted DST after you’ve seen which DEF is putting up points after a couple of weeks.  Or DST stream against the offensive doormats or rookie QBs.

Avoid the suck.  I really miss that article, but still try to heed the advice: do your best to anticipate offenses that will surge, and those that will slump.  Pick players that are the primary players on good offenses.  You’ll misjudge a few, but if the bulk of your team is on good offenses, you’re going to have more success.  Touchdowns win you games.

 

[renesauz]

You chose to pick Alex Smith, who did not have a good year. That doesn’t really have anything to do with waiting on QB. I’m assuming there were still a handful of QB’s you could have chosen that would have been reliable starters all year. 

You're kind of missing the point. There are such players AT ALL POSITIONS (though admittedly fewer at RB). There are WR's drafted in the 10th+ that were starter caliber.  Streaming QBs is no easier or more fun then streaming WR's or TE's. Whenever you wait at a position, you take the chance of being stuck with a dud and having to stream or trade for help. Depending on the league, it's often EASIER to do so at another position (especially WR)

 

[zftcg]

You're kind of missing the point. There are such players AT ALL POSITIONS (though admittedly fewer at RB). There are WR's drafted in the 10th+ that were starter caliber.  Streaming QBs is no easier or more fun then streaming WR's or TE's. Whenever you wait at a position, you take the chance of being stuck with a dud and having to stream or trade for help. Depending on the league, it's often EASIER to do so at another position (especially WR)

Streaming QBs is significantly easier. In an average league, 12 QBs are started each week vs. 30 RBs and 30 WRs (assume start two of each plus a RB/WR flex). That means each team needs to find approximately one starter per NFL team for RB/WR, but for QBs they can pick and choose their starter from less than half of the total number of NFL teams.

What's more, the nature of the QB position is that whoever is starting pretty much has a guaranteed floor of production, whereas the floor of a marginal WR is basically zero. (That's also the reason that, even though the same supply and demand laws apply to TEs, streaming one is much harder than QB.)

Finally, there's a chicken-egg issue. Because RBs and WRs are more valuable, people are more likely to stockpile them, which only increases scarcity. The typical fantasy roster will have 4-5 RBs/WRs, and around 1.5 QBs. If there's a potentially useful RB/WR, someone will scoop them up. But useful QBs are far more likely to be on the WW and available for streaming in a given week. Very few people were holding Lamar Jackson before he got the starting job, but tons of people drafted Nick Chubb and held on until the Hyde trade made him valuable.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

following up zftcg thought process (which I agree with) - for me it is worth taking my QB2 early enough so that I have essentially two QB1 and don't have to scrounge when it comes to stream time...most teams in my league don't even bother with a QB2 - and just scrounge to fill during the one bye week (assuming no injury to their #1).  Last two years that is how I landed Roethlisberger - got him after everyone had their QB1 somehow - and in both years he started more often than my #1 - and both years I won championships due to him.  Had I not used that strategy I guarantee I would have not won EITHER of the last two championships.  Something to think about.

 

[Doug B]

Depth wins.  Always cull the end of your roster adding upside players.

In redraft, build for the playoff weeks.  Watch matchups (once you get a few weeks in) and plan for injuries.

These two are subtle and often overlooked, but are both excellent pieces of advice.

Both concepts go hand-in hand with one another, IMHO. Almost never will the team you draft be the exact same team, man for man, as the team with which you go deep into the fantasy playoffs. A lot of fantasy owners -- even experienced ones -- will let a good team go on autopilot and never really turn over the bottom of their roster, instead feeling that chasing the same three or four annual bust-outs that everyone bids on is sufficient roster management.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Just thought of another - don't know why it took me 25+ years to figure it out...draft best available regardless of bye week and manage bye week when it occurs (after all it is only 1/16th of your season (if you make it to championship) or at worst 1/13th of your season if you don't make playoffs).

So this year I got my starters totally ignoring bye weeks - and oddly wound up with a team that had serious bye week issues in Week 12 (Rams and Chiefs) and Week 7 (Pit/GB/Sea).

In the previous 24 years I would overthink bye weeks and might drop 10 spots down my draft list for a player due to bye week considerations.  I swear to you management of this years team was SO much easier because for the most part it was set and forget with minimal week to week tweaking.  It helps that we have a 14 man starting lineup and 10 man bench to facilitate the ability to do this - but I wound up with a much better team by NOT worrying about bye week implications.

 

[Doug B]

Just thought of another - don't know why it took me 25+ years to figure it out...draft best available regardless of bye week and manage bye week when it occurs ...

So this year I got my starters totally ignoring bye weeks - and oddly wound up with a team that had serious bye week issues in Week 12 (Rams and Chiefs) and Week 7 (Pit/GB/Sea).

Yes indeed. And this kind of thing ALSO ties into Black's post above about embracing roster churn. 9 times out of 10,  by the time that 'killer bye week' comes, your roster is changed enough from draft day that it's much less of a problem than it looked like circa Labor Day.

Or else ... your team really does end up structured so that the bye hits chiefly come only on one or two weeks. That's a good thing as well -- your team is essentially full strength 11 of 13 regular-season weeks. Teams that try too hard to balance bye-week hits can end up limping through 5 or 6 weeks straight with an important starter missing each week.

 

[Elevencents]

You're kind of missing the point. There are such players AT ALL POSITIONS (though admittedly fewer at RB). There are WR's drafted in the 10th+ that were starter caliber.  Streaming QBs is no easier or more fun then streaming WR's or TE's. Whenever you wait at a position, you take the chance of being stuck with a dud and having to stream or trade for help. Depending on the league, it's often EASIER to do so at another position (especially WR)

Apparently I am because I’m not seeing an argument for taking a QB early. That’s ok. 

 

[Da Guru]

Not to base ones projections on what someone has done but on what they may do.

(Not counting injuries)     But I always think to myself how different the draft would be after only the first week of play.

 

[dkp993]

Zero RB is officially dead.  Long live the RB’s again.  An elite RB is the foundation to a stong team again.  

The elite TE advantage is real.  

And as always more people need to play in auction leagues. The fun and strategy are unmatched.

The other thing I learned is super flex/2 QB league are the way to go.  It brings the QB back into play and forces you to think about the position like you did 10 yrs ago.  

 

[zftcg]

following up zftcg thought process (which I agree with) - for me it is worth taking my QB2 early enough so that I have essentially two QB1 and don't have to scrounge when it comes to stream time...most teams in my league don't even bother with a QB2 - and just scrounge to fill during the one bye week (assuming no injury to their #1).  Last two years that is how I landed Roethlisberger - got him after everyone had their QB1 somehow - and in both years he started more often than my #1 - and both years I won championships due to him.  Had I not used that strategy I guarantee I would have not won EITHER of the last two championships.  Something to think about.

Maybe, but the argument against it is that drafting a QB2 represents a huge opportunity cost when you could take a flier on a RB/WR and still get a good QB on the WW during the season.

But if you play in a deeper league and/or teams in your league tend to load up on QB, then it may be smart to incorporate 2QBs into your streaming strategy (also, it allows you to plan ahead and pick up a streaming candidate a week before you need him).

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Maybe, but the argument against it is that drafting a QB2 represents a huge opportunity cost when you could take a flier on a RB/WR and still get a good QB on the WW during the season.

But if you play in a deeper league and/or teams in your league tend to load up on QB, then it may be smart to incorporate 2QBs into your streaming strategy (also, it allows you to plan ahead and pick up a streaming candidate a week before you need him).

To that end - when I say take QB2 earlier than normal - I am not saying take it before value has been depleted from RB/WR.  I AM suggesting taking it before you are taking fliers on speculative picks.

 

[Judge Smails]

That the Chiefs, as constituted now, will have top-flight skill players for years to come. 

To maybe not stream defenses next year and instead move up a little and pick that good one instead of waiting for matchups. Got burned by teams holding a lot of defenses by the end of the year. It would have been nice to have Baltimore.  

I was thinking exactly the opposite about defenses. So many defense disappointments. Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, etc

 

[zftcg]

I was thinking exactly the opposite about defenses. So many defense disappointments. Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, etc

Agree that you should never reach for defenses, but didn't the Rams finish as the DST2 for the year?

FWIW, my strategy is to identify a defense that might make the leap and target them at most a round early (ie, if I usually take D in Round 13 and K in 14, I'll take my target D in Round 12). Worked like a charm with the Bears this year.

 

[NYRAGE]

One of my biggest take aways from the last few years in IDP leagues is that everyone can find offensive commentary easily and many have the same information so offense scoring is fairly similar across the board in my leagues.  Everyone is "good" at drafting offense.  

What separates the good teams is the ability to research and find IDP information to be able to wait on no-name players that have similar production as the name players that tend to go 4-5 rounds earlier.  it allows you to stockpile offensive dart throws to increase your chances of finding the breakout while still being at the top of the IDP side because you know more details than your league mates.  Spend most of your draft prep on the defensive side and it is a huge advantage come draft day. 

I'm in a long-time IDP league where about 3 of us have been so far ahead of the curve on the IDP side. In past days, I used to load up on good LBs. It then got to a point where I could draft late round IDP sleepers. Then I could just not even worry about the draft and pick up IDPs from the waiver wire and get almost 10 guaranteed points based on matchups alone.

It got a lot harder this year. It seems that most of the teams in my league finally caught up. Plus I guess teams are running less, so LBs are getting less points.  Now I'm happy with 8 points as opposed to 10 in the past. Looks like there is a shift to using more DBs now. Either way, with most teams catching up, I'm going to have to work harder on IDPs going forward. 

 

[Mt. Man]

1) That studs are largely studs. For RBs: Gurley, Zeke, Kamara, Barkley, Gordon and even Hunt & David Johnson finished in the top 10 as expected. Same for WRs Brown, Hopkins, Julio, M. Thomas, Adams and Evans. Beckham would've been there too if he'd played any the last month, and AJ Green might have too. There's always room for surprises, failures and injuries. But by and large, people had it right this year compared to the usual minefield.   

2) That QBs are deep. You could've earned a lot of $ saying that Mahomes, Big Ben, Ryan and even Luck would be top 5. And some people did! The gap is thin between #4 and #10, and even down to about #15 there', and that's not counting possible risers like Mayfield and Lamar Jackson (or even Wentz). I have to agree with the thought trying to get two here is valuable, to a point.

3) TEs are Kelce, Ertz, and a mess. Okay, if you want throw Kittle (who I doubt was in your* top 10) & Ebron (probably outside your* top 15) . Hell, I started a guy (J. Cook) I got off waivers most of the year. Maybe hope with Howard if healthy? Otherwise there's a dearth of talent here waiting for more big stars. 

*By 'your' I really mean people in general. You in particular surely had this correct in comparison. That goes without saying >.>