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2018 - What We Learned (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

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With the Season wrapped for many and almost done for everyone else, I'd love to hear from you about lessons learned this year.

I'm less interested in gloating about wins or commiserating about misses than I am identifying things we can apply going forward. 

Let's hear it. What did you learn?

 
That the Chiefs, as constituted now, will have top-flight skill players for years to come. 

To maybe not stream defenses next year and instead move up a little and pick that good one instead of waiting for matchups. Got burned by teams holding a lot of defenses by the end of the year. It would have been nice to have Baltimore.  

 
It’s still a good idea to wait on QB. 40 points separated 4-10 in my league. I got Ben in the 9th I believe and he finished 2nd. 
Thanks. That one is interesting as mid year I was hearing a lot of "Waiting on a QB is no longer a good strategy" talk. I've been thinking about this one. 

 
I think Gronk would be a good example. Any combo of age and injury history has to be accounted for when spending a pick on a highly rated player.
Should be interesting to see where he ends up going in mocks next year (if he plays). I’ve been blessed with Kelce since he came in the league so never had to do much TE evaluation. Especially when it was such a down year (worst year ever for TEs? If you can quantify that) at the position. Have to think Ertz and Kelce all alone at the top. 

 
Should be interesting to see where he ends up going in mocks next year (if he plays). I’ve been blessed with Kelce since he came in the league so never had to do much TE evaluation. Especially when it was such a down year (worst year ever for TEs? If you can quantify that) at the position. Have to think Ertz and Kelce all alone at the top. 
Kelce and Ertz seem like a clear top 2, but in my book Kittle is right there in the tier with them.

 
Thanks. That one is interesting as mid year I was hearing a lot of "Waiting on a QB is no longer a good strategy" talk. I've been thinking about this one. 
I have a feeling Maholmes is going to be gone verrrry early in a lot of drafts next year. Which I can’t really blame them but it won’t be me. 

 
I do like Kittle. I think Njoku could be top 5 if they get him more involved. 
Interesting...I agreed with you when he came out, but I really didn’t like the (lack of) ball skills he showed this year.  I’d be more inclined to put Howard there than Njoku, and for me they are down in the next tier with guys like Henry, with Engram atop that tier.

Love the TE conversation, but if it is getting too specific for Joe’s general topic thread it could do with its own topic...

 
My first year playing on FFPC and using FAAB. I have learned to be more careful with frivolous bidding. Last few weeks I had $0 and took a big fat zero from Gurley in the championship because I didn’t have 2 healthy RBs. 

 
Kelce and Ertz seem like a clear top 2, but in my book Kittle is right there in the tier with them.
He seems to be the guy there and he is really into the game. Plus he is someone you will pick up much cheaper than the big names. Good player for those who want to go cheaper at TE.

 
Interesting...I agreed with you when he came out, but I really didn’t like the (lack of) ball skills he showed this year.  I’d be more inclined to put Howard there than Njoku, and for me they are down in the next tier with guys like Henry, with Engram atop that tier.

Love the TE conversation, but if it is getting too specific for Joe’s general topic thread it could do with its own topic...
Living around Cleveland, but being an Eagles fan, I’ll admit I only really saw him on Redzone so my perception could very easily be inflated. 

 
That the Chiefs, as constituted now, will have top-flight skill players for years to come. 

To maybe not stream defenses next year and instead move up a little and pick that good one instead of waiting for matchups. Got burned by teams holding a lot of defenses by the end of the year. It would have been nice to have Baltimore.  
I don't know.  I used my 10th to grab Jax only to drop them by midseason. Bi picked up Baltimore to only have them give me negative points two out of three weeks.

 
My first year playing on FFPC and using FAAB. I have learned to be more careful with frivolous bidding. Last few weeks I had $0 and took a big fat zero from Gurley in the championship because I didn’t have 2 healthy RBs. 
Was just coming into post this. There was no reason to bid 20% of my budget on Keke Coutee and Keelan Cole. Thankfully I saved the rest and was able to pick up Samuels and Jackson at the end because everybody else was doing the same thing. 

I think, next year, I wait again unless something really special happens.  

 
If you are going to take a chance in an early round on a hold out (see Bell, Le'Veon) invest an earlier than normal pick on his handcuff (or at the very least a passable replacement level player at the same position).

Wait on QB, but once you pull the lever on QB1 invest in a QB2 before everyone else has their QB1 secured.  (leverage baby...at the very least and quite often your QB2 becomes your QB1 and you wonder what the hell you were thinking when you took QB1).

In IDP leagues, LB used to be a position of scarcity to get an absolute stud, now it seems there is not a heck of a lot of difference between LB 3 and LB 20.  So don't spend a high pick on an LB when you can easily fill out your LB from the waiver wire.

Also in IDP leagues - everyone assumes LB puts up better numbers than DB...but this year I noticed I was starting DBs in my flex way more often than LBs...so grab those SS/FS when everyone else is taking LB3 or LB4.

It is a passing league - so people are all enamored with zero RB theory - screw that just target great pass catching RBs who are also RB1 (see McCaffery. Christian). 

 
I've never been a fan of handcuffing my best players. Usually it seemed to be a waste of a spot. But this year, picking up backups (in this case, Anderson and Williams) won me a championship. I would say handcuffing any player still isn't always necessary, but take a look at the system in which they're playing. Certain teams like the Steelers, Chiefs, and Rams, really are willing to give their RBs the carries and the targets they need to thrive. Nothing against the individual players--they still have to perform. But sometimes the system can give them an extra boost. 

Conversely, sometimes coaches just aren't willing to utilize specific players. It helps to take that into account. For example, I kept Drake thinking he'd be a breakout star this year. But no matter the situation, Gase just wasn't willing to lean on him. Those factors need to be considered, beyond just the players' talent level.

 
I've noticed this year that having the right depth in 12 team or greater dynasty leagues, with 24 to 26 player rosters, was very important come playoff time.  A lot of injuries to studs.  This isn't always the case, but seemed to be more important than usual this year.

 
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Poor decisions with early picks really hurt your team.  Not talking injuries, although injury risk is something to be considered.  Talking about taking players with know suspension / holdout  type issues.  Two years running I have taken Zeke (suspension) and Bell (holdout).  

Need to take less risk early in my draft.

 
Not to wait on spending your BBID bucks if you see homerun talent after week 1. I spent my entire year's BBID on Lindsay after week 1, and was happy to pickup whatever scraps were left on the wire for the rest of the year as I now have a very valuable asset in my dynasty league that helped me reach the post season in almost every league. 

 
Zero RB is officially dead.  Long live the RB’s again.  An elite RB is the foundation to a stong team again.  

The elite TE advantage is real.  

And as always more people need to play in auction leagues. The fun and strategy are unmatched.

 
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Not to wait on spending your BBID bucks if you see homerun talent after week 1. I spent my entire year's BBID on Lindsay after week 1, and was happy to pickup whatever scraps were left on the wire for the rest of the year as I now have a very valuable asset in my dynasty league that helped me reach the post season in almost every league. 
I agree to a point.  Spend up to 90% of your FAAB as early as you need to get an ascendant talent....but ALWAYS reserve 10% for Week 14 and beyond.  Why 10% because it SUCKS to hit the playoffs and see someone get 3 valuable players for 3% combined and you are stuck with no ability to at least price enforce.

 
Often enough, the best NFL defenses are not the best fantasy defenses. 
I agree but what generally works for me every year is finding a team with a top DVOA and figuring the turnovers will follow. They often do. I usually wait until Week 8 or 9 to truly select a defense. I don't think most fantasy guys use team DVOA to their advantage.  

 
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I agree but what generally works for me every year is finding a team with a top DVOA and figuring the turnovers will follow. They often do. I usually wait until Week 8 or 9 to truly select a defense. I don't think most fantasy guys use team DVOA to their advantage.  
what is top "DVOA"?

thanx

 
DVOA is a statistical measure developed by Football Outsiders that takes the data of every down played in pro football since a certain date and then compares it to the data historically. I think it's based on success rate and yardage for defense as they consider fumbles recovered as a function of luck. Here -- I'll go to their site and see if they don't explain it better than I am right now.  

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa

 
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Zero RB is officially dead.  Long live the RB’s again.  An elite RB is the foundation to a stong team again.  

The elite TE advantage is real.  

And as always more people need to play in auction leagues. The fun and strategy are unmatched.
Not sure I agree with the first one. I think it depends on your league's format. I only like to play in PPR leagues, and in those, an elite, pass-catching RB is absolutely the foundation for a winning team. But if guys like Gurley, Barkley, Kamara, McCaffrey, etc. aren't available, I would rather have an elite receiver than a RB who might be great on the ground, but is still one dimensional.

Your last point I definitely agree with. Auction is the way to go and it isn't even close.

 
Thanks. Can you elaborate there? Good examples you see of this? Best way to way to predict who these will be?
Best way to predict who they are is by knowing injury history and depth chart.  If they’re any kind of reliable fantasy scorer and there’s no one at all behind them on the depth chart or if they get sent out even when they’re hurt with someone behind them on the depth chart, they can anchor a position. 

You can’t predict catastrophic injuries but you know everyone gets dinged up.  If Derrick Henry gets a tweaked shoulder is he playing next week?  If they can make it happen.  Same with guys like Michael Thomas, Hopkins, Ertz, TY Hilton, Kenny Golladay, Drew Brees.  Spencer Ware as a Starter? Nah, if he’s dinged up we’ll let Williams carry it.  

In fact, you pick up the guy behind the guy this doesn’t apply to, you get tremendous value for a couple games a season. Latavius Murray, whoever is backing up Crowell at any given time, Mariota’s backup, Williams, etc.  

 
Things I learned this year:

  • (Gronk) When Hoodie tries to trade a player, it is for a reason.
  • (CMC, Tyreek) Finding value means identifying bad narratives.  
  • (D Williams, CJA, Conor/Samuels, J Williams) Unfortunately, RBs dont matter :(
 
That the Chiefs, as constituted now, will have top-flight skill players for years to come. 

To maybe not stream defenses next year and instead move up a little and pick that good one instead of waiting for matchups. Got burned by teams holding a lot of defenses by the end of the year. It would have been nice to have Baltimore.  
Unless you drafted Jacksonville. Even if you get a good defense, you're still going to have bad match-ups that will require the occasional streamer. However, sometimes you'll get a game like the Rams vs KC where both defenses give up tons of points, but still unexpectedly had good weeks. More often than not, they won't.

You really need to study the schedule before you draft and try to find two defenses that are compatible if everyone is going to hold multiple defenses throughout the season. Yet as Jax proved, last year's great defense may not mean anything this year. 

 
Unless you drafted Jacksonville. Even if you get a good defense, you're still going to have bad match-ups that will require the occasional streamer. However, sometimes you'll get a game like the Rams vs KC where both defenses give up tons of points, but still unexpectedly had good weeks. More often than not, they won't.

You really need to study the schedule before you draft and try to find two defenses that are compatible if everyone is going to hold multiple defenses throughout the season. Yet as Jax proved, last year's great defense may not mean anything this year. 
Yeah, the feedback I've gotten in this thread has caused me to rethink my rethinking of the situation. My big mistake this year was owning Josh Gordon on the two teams I ran. That and just a bad Week 15 cost me. But I won the championship in the other, so I'm happy. 

But thanks for the feedback, guys.  

 
Unless you drafted Jacksonville. Even if you get a good defense, you're still going to have bad match-ups that will require the occasional streamer. However, sometimes you'll get a game like the Rams vs KC where both defenses give up tons of points, but still unexpectedly had good weeks. More often than not, they won't.

You really need to study the schedule before you draft and try to find two defenses that are compatible if everyone is going to hold multiple defenses throughout the season. Yet as Jax proved, last year's great defense may not mean anything this year. 
I wish team defenses, kickers and ppr would die, in that order.

I think we learned that the top wrs are fading away and not many young guys are stepping up.

I’d say not many things are a shock but the small rbs are getting more relevant. A 3 down stud is great but guys like Cohen can be found late and be a lot of help. 

 
I played in 9 bestballs at ffpc and won 4. A big key was finding situations with backup RBs who could go big.  Le’veon Bell’s situation, for one - I made sure to grab Conner when it was all just rumor and threats.  But also guys like Elijah McGuire and Tarik Cohen... both had explosive potentials but Cohen was (allegedly) blocked and McGuire was out for half the season.  Also guys like Ingram and Aaron Jones who were somewhat devalued by suspension.  Getting several of these players later in the draft allowed me to bulk up at other positions, and while they weren’t necessarily consistent, in the BB format, they proved very valuable.

 
Was just coming into post this. There was no reason to bid 20% of my budget on Keke Coutee and Keelan Cole. Thankfully I saved the rest and was able to pick up Samuels and Jackson at the end because everybody else was doing the same thing. 

I think, next year, I wait again unless something really special happens.  
I think I bid around 40% on Coutee 😞

 
I played in 9 bestballs at ffpc and won 4. A big key was finding situations with backup RBs who could go big.  Le’veon Bell’s situation, for one - I made sure to grab Conner when it was all just rumor and threats.  But also guys like Elijah McGuire and Tarik Cohen... both had explosive potentials but Cohen was (allegedly) blocked and McGuire was out for half the season.  Also guys like Ingram and Aaron Jones who were somewhat devalued by suspension.  Getting several of these players later in the draft allowed me to bulk up at other positions, and while they weren’t necessarily consistent, in the BB format, they proved very valuable.
Congrats on your year, but I'm giving you a like for your avatar. Duck Dodgers and the 24 1/2 Century!

 
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In IDP leagues, LB used to be a position of scarcity to get an absolute stud, now it seems there is not a heck of a lot of difference between LB 3 and LB 20.  So don't spend a high pick on an LB when you can easily fill out your LB from the waiver wire.

Also in IDP leagues - everyone assumes LB puts up better numbers than DB...but this year I noticed I was starting DBs in my flex way more often than LBs...so grab those SS/FS when everyone else is taking LB3 or LB4.
To piggyback on this - don’t waste a lot of effort into finding a DL. There are several that are consistent year to year and if you wanna grab one of them, great (I have been targeting Cameron Jordan, JPP and Chandler Jones the last few years). You can just plug them in all year and be done with it. At the same time, you can find a worthy starter around week 3 or 4 that wasn’t drafted if you wanna just pick up your starter and backup late and they don’t happen to work out. 

 
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Poor decisions with early picks really hurt your team.  Not talking injuries, although injury risk is something to be considered.  Talking about taking players with know suspension / holdout  type issues.  Two years running I have taken Zeke (suspension) and Bell (holdout).  

Need to take less risk early in my draft.
This is one thing I’ve noticed too. I’ve been burned so many times on my 1st round pick (I would say less than half, maybe even 33%, have come remotely close to 1st round performance) that I would say my pick nowadays are 90% floor and 10% ceiling. Save the risks for the rounds you can afford to swing and miss. Hell, even if you wanna swing away in the second. Just make sure you have that bellcow in the 1st. 

 
I think we learned that the top wrs are fading away and not many young guys are stepping up.
Not sure where your perceived cut off is between those who are fading away and the young guys, but with the likes of Hill, Adams, AB, Juju, Diggs, Evans, OBJ, Boyd, Golladay - I think the talent is still there. 

 
I think we learned that the top wrs are fading away and not many young guys are stepping up.
Really?

Top 10 WRs (Age)

Hill (24)
Brown (30)
Adams (26)
Hopkins (26)

Julio (29)
Thielen (28)
Thomas (25)
Evans (25)
Woods (26)
Juju (22)
Lockett (26)
Odell (26)


9 of 12 at 26 or under, with easily another 5 years of peak production ahead of them.  Only one 30 year old, and he's been the best in the game over the past few years.

Looks to me like the young guys are taking the baton and running with it, and the old guys are fading because they've already been passed by.

(BTW, 7 of the next 8 are also 26 or under...) 

 
Couple things for me.

1) React faster and don't ignore early season success. It's easy to ignore players such as Tyler Boyd and Phillip Lindsay and I did for the most part. Having a pre-conceived bias heading into the season that has you create a narrative on why that player will not be successful. 

2) I spent up on Ertz almost everywhere this year and where I did it paid big time. Getting either Ertz or Kelce is such a big advantage and should be drafted much higher next season. 

3) This is nothing new for me, but paying up for running backs continues to be the right strategy. While Zero RB can still work, you have to get lucky. The theory that you're the only one searching for running backs off the waiver wire is a flawed concept that might work in an extremely casual office league, but if you're playing with people that know what they are doing everyone is looking for running backs every week.

4) Don't overvalue top-end quarterbacks. I went out of the way to draft Aaron Rodgers in a number of leagues. I still think there is value in taking the elite quarterback, but at the right cost. For example, someone is going to likely take Mahomes far too early next year.

 
You really have to understand a new coach's philosophy and you can't assume a top flight player will be used the same way as the last regime.

See David Johnson.

So be careful with teams that are changing head coaches and/or offensive coordinators.

Regarding.......

4) Don't overvalue top-end quarterbacks. I went out of the way to draft Aaron Rodgers in a number of leagues. I still think there is value in taking the elite quarterback, but at the right cost. For example, someone is going to likely take Mahomes far too early next year.
Agree 100%.........just remember what Peyton Manning and Tom Brady did after their historic seasons.  Pass on Mahomes in Round 2 next year.

 

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