Had a chance to look at the Past Performances and Draw below:
Gate 1: War of Will
Gate 2: Tax
Gate 3: By My Standards
Gate 4: Gray Magician
Gate 5: Improbable
Gate 6: Vekoma
Gate 7: Maximum Security
Gate 8: Tacitus
Gate 9: Plus Que Parfait
Gate 10: Cutting Humor
Gate 11: Haikal
Gate 12: Omaha Beach
Gate 13: Code of Honor
Gate 14: Win Win Win
Gate 15: Master Fencer
Gate 16: Game Winner
Gate 17: Roadster
Gate 18: Long Range Toddy
Gate 19: Spinoff
Gate 20: Country House
Here's how I'm looking at it now. Eliminated horses - all of the inside 6, including Improbable. So War of Will, Tax, By My Standards, Gray Magician, Velkoma and Improbable. Drawing inside of Maximus Security and Omaha Beach will hurt all of them, and they weren't good enough anyway. Then eliminate Plus Que Parfait, Cutting Humor, Haikal, Code of Honor, Win Win Win, Master Fencer, Long Range Toddy, Spinoff and Country House. So I've eliminated 15 of the 20 horses.
5 horses will decide this:
7 - Maximus Security - won't get an easy trip with Omaha Beach breathing down his neck every step of the way but if he breaks well and settles who knows. Went from 16K maiden claimer to airing in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Nobody's been close to him and he's had back to back Beyers over 100.
12 - Omaha Beach - gets the best draw and should track Maximus Security the whole way. If that one folds will inherit the lead. Hard to see him being out of the exacta.
16 - Game Winner - Don't like the fact that he labored and had to be asked in mid stretch but he was coming back on just 3 weeks rest. Should get a good trip laying 3rd or 4th and then come outside Omaha Beach. Question of him moving forward off those 2 preps or not. I think he's a grinder and not brilliant but has been right there in every race. Rumor is that the SA track was deep and tiring after it was redone so it might be giving him a conditioning edge
17- Roadster - honestly don't love his draw. He's going to have to find a way to tuck in and save ground. Hard to do from the 17 hole. I like him less after the post position draw. Got the worst of it for his style. But if he somehow gets a trip he finishes and is good enough to win this.
8 - Tacitus - I know, I said never bet the Wood Winner. But I have to give him a shot after seeing the post position draw. He wasn't the typical win up front Wood winner, and he had trouble to boot. At least he was drawing away at the end in his 2 starts, including at TB Downs. Beyers are in the range. For his style I love the 8 hole as long as he drops back and doesn't get squeezed when Improbable and Maximus Security go at it from the inner half and Omaha Beach and Game Winner try to shoot out to get position and not be wide. All of those horses in between are at risk of getting squeezed/slammed. Knock is he's been facing weaker fields so don't know if he's good enough to pass the top 4.
Usually love when I can eliminate 3/4 of the field but not a ton of value here. These are the horses who dominated the major final preps. Might do a Superfecta box with these 5. The only 2 closers I give a shot to are Roadster and Tacitus. If the top 3 go too fast along with Improbable (and they may hook up early enough) then one of the 2 closers can be in the exacta. Omaha Beach's race to lose after the draw. Game Winner figures close. Maximus Security has his work cut out trying to fend off those 2 early and then Roadster/Tacitus late. Neither Omaha Beach nor Game Winner are drawing away from each other so when that happens it gives the closers a punchers chance. If they settle then the high cruising speed top 3 will be controlling it.
Chalky I know but I can't see it any other way....