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2019 Patrick Mahomes REDRAFT.....? (1 Viewer)

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
Interested to see the early take on where you see Mahomes going in REDRAFTS in 2019.

How early and will you be “that guy” to take him by what most people, especially the “wait on QB guy” would consider “way too early”? 

The gap between QB1 (Mahomes) and QB2 in your leagues was probably more significant than any other gap/tier at any position.  At what point is the “difference” he makes worth it to you in your league?

I realize the word “regression” will be the most popular fantasy word attached to Mahomes this off-season.  But how much regression are you really counting on or will he regress at all?

Obviously, your scoring systems may vary, starting lineups requirements etc. But for discussion sake here are a few leagues and where Mahomes finished compared to the field (mostly 12 team leagues):

IBL: (4 PPTD and PPR)
Mahomes: 445.5
Next QB: 377.02 (Ryan)
Next Positional: 387.5 (CMAC)

NO MERCY: (6 PPTD and NO PPR)
Mahomes: 568.00
Next QB:  472.00 (Ryan)
Next Positional: 313.00 (Gurley)

HOME LEAGUE 1 (6 PPTD and 0.5 PPR)
Mahomes: 561.50
Next QB: 469.60 (Ben)
Next Positional: 344.60 (Gurley)

Anarchy (6 PPTD and PPR)
Mahomes: 571.36
Next QB: 460.56
Next Positional: 364.00

So in most cases it looks to be about 100 point advantage give or take at the QB position which is just over a TD per week (6.25 give or take).  And about a 200 point advantage over other positions in 6 PPTD leagues which is just over 2 TD’s per week (12.5).  Factoring in the NFL rules, somewhat less chance of injury than positional players, etc. Where would you feel comfortable pulling the trigger or have you already decided to “let somebody else draft him”? 
 

 
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[icon]

Insoxicated
Volatility at top QB is high... I think someone will reach in mid 1st possibly early 1st in many leagues. 

If history repeats itself 100% he may well be worth it, however I will not be willing to pay that price because history says he won’t. 

In 12-16T 6ptTD leagues I MAY consider at the 1/2 turn but I don’t expect him to be there. I’d rather play as usual, taking what low QB1s fall to the 5th-8th round (league dependent). 

 
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Ghost Rider

Footballguy
History has shown that Mahomes' numbers will come back down to earth in 2019.  He could very well be the number 1 FF QB again, but he won't lap the field.  

I'd take him in the 3rd round if I was not fond of any WR, TE or RB at that spot, but I generally do not draft a quarterback in the 3rd round.  And I doubt I will get him in my auction league since someone will inevitably bid an arm and a leg for him.  

 

Elevencents

Footballguy
Zero chance I draft him. 

I already see him going round 1 in my draft. One year we had 3 QBs in the first 15 picks. 

 
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travdogg

Footballguy
Probably not even thinking about him until at least 40 picks in, at which he'll likely be long gone, because he'll probably go in round 1 in many drafts. Never take a QB high, when QB's always emerge.

In a way Mahomes(2018) himself is a good example of why not to reach and draft a guy like Mahomes(2019). 

 

Neil Beaufort Zod

Footballguy
I don't normally go early on QBs but I've tried to be more flexible about it. This past season I got Hopkins and took Watson earlier than I would normally to pair them up. Worked out great. 

Point being that Mahomes going early might mean some other QBs (Rodgers maybe) go a little later and I might get one of them. So I won't get Mahomes, but I might get a guy that drops a round because of Mahomes, if "early QB guy" goes for him.

 

Neil Beaufort Zod

Footballguy
travdogg said:
Probably not even thinking about him until at least 40 picks in, at which he'll likely be long gone, because he'll probably go in round 1 in many drafts. Never take a QB high, when QB's always emerge.

In a way Mahomes(2018) himself is a good example of why not to reach and draft a guy like Mahomes(2019). 
I mostly agree, except the value in selecting an early QB isn't to get yourself the hot passer that year. It's to secure a high floor and allow yourself to forget about the position. There's value in that imo.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
[icon] said:
Remember Brady going first round after that record setting year? I do... 
He got injured in the first game and was out for the year....so thats not really fair....he still would have had Moss around etc....so who knows

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
travdogg said:
Probably not even thinking about him until at least 40 picks in, at which he'll likely be long gone, because he'll probably go in round 1 in many drafts. Never take a QB high, when QB's always emerge.

In a way Mahomes(2018) himself is a good example of why not to reach and draft a guy like Mahomes(2019). 
I have thought about the bolded , but I think Mahomes situation was a little unique.....and probably should have been capitalized on more than it was.....I'm not sure you can really come up with a similar situation heading into next year....

 
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fightingillini

Footballguy
All you have to see is the seasons after Manning and Brady had their career years.

Manning 2013 - 5477/55/10

Manning 2014 - 4727/39/15.....which is about 100 pt fantasy difference

Brady 2007 - 4806/50/8

Brady 2009 (got injured in 2008 in week 1) 4398/28/13.....about a 110 pt fantasy difference.

So Mahomes is almost certainly going to take a step back to where it's not wise to take him with a top 20 pick.  You're going to have to spend a 2nd round pick (maybe even a 1st round pick) to roster him.  Pass.

 

kutta

Footballguy
I agree on waiting - you win your league by finding the next Mahomes in the 8th round next year.

But, I have toyed with grabbing Mahomes and Kelce at the 1-2 turn if I have the chance. Assuring a top 3 guy, and quite possibly the top guy, at two positions is an interesting approach.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
All you have to see is the seasons after Manning and Brady had their career years.

Manning 2013 - 5477/55/10

Manning 2014 - 4727/39/15.....which is about 100 pt fantasy difference

Brady 2007 - 4806/50/8

Brady 2009 (got injured in 2008 in week 1) 4398/28/13.....about a 110 pt fantasy difference.

So Mahomes is almost certainly going to take a step back to where it's not wise to take him with a top 20 pick.  You're going to have to spend a 2nd round pick (maybe even a 1st round pick) to roster him.  Pass.
not trying to ruffle any feathers, but these are the kind of posts that I really struggle with....what happened to Manning and Brady has really nothing to do with what may or may not happen to Mahomes.....if there are valid reasons to anticipate regression, I can get on board with that....but the "because it is what happened before to other people" thing is not real good support IMO....if stuff like that is what other people are basing their fantasy decisions on, so be it I guess...but I'd rather hear something other than "its what happened to Brady and Manning"...just IMO...

 

rzrback77

IBL Representative
So wish that I had listened to your call a year ago and I also concur that Mahomes (teamed with Reed) is an unusual animal. Like many here, I am a wait on quarterback disciple. However, that being said what was mentioned by @kutta, drafting Mahomes and Kelce at the bottom of the first turn has an appeal that I might consider.

More than likely though, I expect that someone will reach a bit and he will not be available for me. There is absolutely no other quarterback that should be considered. If Mahomes is taken earlier than you deem responsible, do not select a quarterback until at least 12 and possibly as many as 15 have been taken. Lots of compression after #1.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
I agree on waiting - you win your league by finding the next Mahomes in the 8th round next year.

But, I have toyed with grabbing Mahomes and Kelce at the 1-2 turn if I have the chance. Assuring a top 3 guy, and quite possibly the top guy, at two positions is an interesting approach.
see thats the thing...I think if you step back and look at it, I'm not sure there is a "Mahomes in the 8th round next year"....these guys/situations don't come around that often.....if it happened every year, I probably wouldn't have started this thread....the kind of stuff he is doing has only been done by 2 other guys in the history of the game...and he did it in his first year as a starter...

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
not trying to ruffle any feathers, but these are the kind of posts that I really struggle with....what happened to Manning and Brady has really nothing to do with what may or may not happen to Mahomes.....if there are valid reasons to anticipate regression, I can get on board with that....but the "because it is what happened before to other people" thing is not real good support IMO....if stuff like that is what other people are basing their fantasy decisions on, so be it I guess...but I'd rather hear something other than "its what happened to Brady and Manning"...just IMO...
How is pointing out NFL history and the concept of regression to the mean not good support? Are you suggesting Mahomes will throw for 5,000+ yards and 50+ TDs every season? If you want proof that will not happen, I doubt anyone will be able to satisfy you.

If you truly believed that Mahomes is going to lap the field by 100 points again, I imagine VBD will tell you he should go #1 overall. It's tough to imagine that but it's surely not impossible. He has to be the top QB that comes off the board in redraft of course, but if he comes back to the pack (and history and logic says he will) then he's probably not worth a first round pick.

In his favor is he's probably a very safe first round pick as barring injury it's highly unlikely he's a bust.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
I agree on waiting - you win your league by finding the next Mahomes in the 8th round next year.

But, I have toyed with grabbing Mahomes and Kelce at the 1-2 turn if I have the chance. Assuring a top 3 guy, and quite possibly the top guy, at two positions is an interesting approach.
I will say...I often agree with the QB/TE thing....there is something to be said for dominating the (2) positions (other than PK and DST) where you usually only start one player.....then rely on your drafting skills/savvy to fill in RB/WR.....

 

travdogg

Footballguy
I have thought about the bolded , but I think Mahomes situation was a little unique.....and probably should have been capitalized on more than it was.....I'm not sure you can really come up with a similar situation heading into next year....
Of course there isn't a perfect Mahomes scenario every year, but its almost unheard of for guys to follow up career years with another career year. 

Mahomes, while obviously the best, wasn't the only QB people waited on and got a stud performance from. Matt Ryan went super late, as did Goff, as did Luck in early drafts. The overall point is, and has always been outside of 2 QB leagues, that the supply so greatly dwarfs the demand, that taking a QB high is a fool's errand, unless they end up blowing away the competition. While Mahomes did that this year, history heavily suggests that he won't next year, or possibly ever again. 2018 might very well be the peak of Mahomes career fantasy wise, I mean, its 1 of the top-10 seasons of all-time. Only Peyton Manning makes that list more than once, and his seasons were 9 years(and 1 team) apart.

 
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kutta

Footballguy
see thats the thing...I think if you step back and look at it, I'm not sure there is a "Mahomes in the 8th round next year"....these guys/situations don't come around that often.....if it happened every year, I probably wouldn't have started this thread....the kind of stuff he is doing has only been done by 2 other guys in the history of the game...and he did it in his first year as a starter...
Agreed. But it does seem that you are usually better taking that QB swing later and hoping you get the right one.

But I also agree if you think he’ll come close to repeating what he did, he’s an easy first rounder.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
How is pointing out NFL history and the concept of regression to the mean not good support? Are you suggesting Mahomes will throw for 5,000+ yards and 50+ TDs every season? If you want proof that will not happen, I doubt anyone will be able to satisfy you.

If you truly believed that Mahomes is going to lap the field by 100 points again, I imagine VBD will tell you he should go #1 overall. It's tough to imagine that but it's surely not impossible. He has to be the top QB that comes off the board in redraft of course, but if he comes back to the pack (and history and logic says he will) then he's probably not worth a first round pick.

In his favor is he's probably a very safe first round pick as barring injury it's highly unlikely he's a bust.
fair enough....but not really asking for proof or to be satisfied....just discussion.....I guess if I had to answer my own question I would say something like....they will continue to have to play a first place schedule, teams now have a full year of film to study, he has lost Hunt at the beginning of the year which was a big part of what he does, so and so gave us a blueprint, etc....not that I necessarily agree with any of those things being a huge factor for regression, but they have a little more substance then "Manning and Brady not continuing their big years however many years ago"....there were their own circumstances that may have contributed to that.....you could make a case that the Chiefs are in and will actually try to continue put him in a position that would suggest he could maintain elite production that does give you a significant fantasy advantage over the field for the foreseeable future...

 
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DocHolliday

Footballguy
I will say...I often agree with the QB/TE thing....there is something to be said for dominating the (2) positions (other than PK and DST) where you usually only start one player.....then rely on your drafting skills/savvy to fill in RB/WR.....
Mahomes will go in the first round in my league.   I just can't do it.   TE early makes more sense to me.  

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
fair enough....but not really asking for proof or to be satisfied....just discussion.....I guess if I had to answer my own question I would say something like....they will continue to have to play a first place schedule, teams now have a full year of film to study, he has lost Hunt at the beginning of the year which was a big part of what he does, so and so gave us a blueprint, etc....not that I necessarily agree with any of those things being a huge factor for regression, but they have a little more substance then "Manning and Brady not continuing their big years however many years ago"....there were there own circumstances that may have contributed to that.....you could make a case that the Chiefs are in and will actually try to continue put him in a position that would suggest he could maintain elite production that does give you a significant fantasy advantage over the field for the foreseeable future...
Well his numbers did taper off a bit late in the season and in the playoffs.

He's a physical specimen and he's surrounded by some upper tier weapons so it's hard to imagine he's not going to put up nice stats year after year - but when two of the greatest QBs of all time fail to follow up on similar seasons that should tell you something - it should not be dismissed as irrelevant.

 

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
fair enough....but not really asking for proof or to be satisfied....just discussion.....I guess if I had to answer my own question I would say something like....they will continue to have to play a first place schedule, teams now have a full year of film to study, he has lost Hunt at the beginning of the year which was a big part of what he does, so and so gave us a blueprint, etc....not that I necessarily agree with any of those things being a huge factor for regression, but they have a little more substance then "Manning and Brady not continuing their big years however many years ago"....there were their own circumstances that may have contributed to that.....you could make a case that the Chiefs are in and will actually try to continue put him in a position that would suggest he could maintain elite production that does give you a significant fantasy advantage over the field for the foreseeable future...
We don't have to be able to predict the reason for his regression to predict that regression is likely based on all historical context.

Every single one of those other QBs who went in the 1st round of fantasy drafts coming off a crazy year had all the reasons in the world why their production should continue if not get better.  Yet in practice, they all got significantly worse.  That's just how regression works.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
We don't have to be able to predict the reason for his regression to predict that regression is likely based on all historical context.

Every single one of those other QBs who went in the 1st round of fantasy drafts coming off a crazy year had all the reasons in the world why their production should continue if not get better.  Yet in practice, they all got significantly worse.  That's just how regression works.
this just simply isn't true.....there are many changes from year to year on every team...

 

barackdhouse

Footballguy
Mahomes redefined the game and the position in his 1st year as a starter. We *do* expect him to get better still, right? In terms of development? Odds of FF regression are high, but what are the odds his 1st year will be his best? Better than zero but the chances are he will feast like this again at some point. Will it be next year? Not nearly as likely, but this is relatively unchartered territory. The Manning and Brady examples are not irrelevant but those were career years *during* the primes of their careers and after years of development. This guy has already rewritten the book. Maybe Marino is a better example. He never had a year as good as 1984 again. 1986 was close.

 

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
Mahomes redefined the game and the position in his 1st year as a starter. We *do* expect him to get better still, right? In terms of development? Odds of FF regression are high, but what are the odds his 1st year will be his best? Better than zero but the chances are he will feast like this again at some point. Will it be next year? Not nearly as likely, but this is relatively unchartered territory. The Manning and Brady examples are not irrelevant but those were career years *during* the primes of their careers and after years of development. This guy has already rewritten the book. Maybe Marino is a better example. He never had a year as good as 1984 again. 1986 was close.
Stafford was very early in his career as well.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
No less so than Mahomes going into this year.  Which is the whole point.
your blanket statement seems to indicate that no matter what changes the team had in personnel, coaching staff, schedule, etc. that they (Brady/Manning) should have kept it up or gotten better after their "crazy" year.....not all changes are positive or "all the reasons in the world their production should continue or get better"....their "regression" could have been due to a ton of different things....as well as their progression had it gone the other way and they actually did "get better" or improve on those numbers the following year....Priest Holmes was probably due for regression after his monster 2002 but he followed it up with another monster....blah blah blah...the point is it can go either way....but whatever does happen to Mahomes (either way good or bad) it will have nothing to do with what happened to Brady or Manning....but whatever...back to Mahomes...

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
So wish that I had listened to your call a year ago and I also concur that Mahomes (teamed with Reed) is an unusual animal. Like many here, I am a wait on quarterback disciple. However, that being said what was mentioned by @kutta, drafting Mahomes and Kelce at the bottom of the first turn has an appeal that I might consider.

More than likely though, I expect that someone will reach a bit and he will not be available for me. There is absolutely no other quarterback that should be considered. If Mahomes is taken earlier than you deem responsible, do not select a quarterback until at least 12 and possibly as many as 15 have been taken. Lots of compression after #1.
he was definitely a "bargain/steal" last year and may have given the greatest ROI in fantasy history....I'm trying to think of another player, maybe Warner, who gave as much ROI...and I agree that QB2 on is a crowd....it just feels like Mahomes will be able to maintain a weekly floor and separation from the pack that justifies a pick anywhere in the second round.....it goes from a 6 or 7 round advantage last year to maybe only a one round advantage this year, but if the separation is enough it is still tremendous value....he may be the closet thing to VBD proof that there is...

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
your blanket statement seems to indicate that no matter what changes the team had in personnel, coaching staff, schedule, etc. that they (Brady/Manning) should have kept it up or gotten better after their "crazy" year.....not all changes are positive or "all the reasons in the world their production should continue or get better"....their "regression" could have been due to a ton of different things....as well as their progression had it gone the other way and they actually did "get better" or improve on those numbers the following year....Priest Holmes was probably due for regression after his monster 2002 but he followed it up with another monster....blah blah blah...the point is it can go either way....but whatever does happen to Mahomes (either way good or bad) it will have nothing to do with what happened to Brady or Manning....but whatever...back to Mahomes...
Mahomes had a NFL record type year.  NFL records are always outliers.

Nobody is stating that Mahomes isn't capable of another 5000/50 year.  The pieces will be in place.  But to think that 5000/50 is his BASELINE is just absurd.  And yes, history has shown that.  For the most part, everything went right for Mahomes this year.  People don't realize all the variables that take place to produce QB numbers.  What happens if KC significantly improves their defense and they don't have to rely on shootouts to win?   Game scripts matter a lot.   How about if Hill or Kelce or a key OL gets injured?   I am not predicting that will happen, but you have to realize how hard it is to average 300/3 every week.   There is a lot of things that Mahomes can't control that influence his numbers.  But his talent alone will keep his number high to where he will likely be QB1.

The right projection is to regress him a bit.....say to 4700 yds passing and 38-40 TDs.  Still QB1, but IMO he isn't worth a late 1st or early 2nd round pick, when I have a good shot at 4700 and 30-32 TDs from a Big Ben or Rivers and draft them in round 6-7.

That said, I would draft Mahomes in Round 3 all day every day.  He just won't be there at that time.

 

wlwiles

Footballguy
All my leagues are 6 pt passing TDs.  Guaranteed Mahomes goes in the first round in every one of them, so maybe 5% chance I'll draft him anywhere.  The only one I'll consider it in is my lone 10-team league if I'm at the back end of the first. I feel reasonably confident in that league (just knowing those owners and how to operate in that league) that I could start Mahomes/Kelce at 1/2 and make up the difference at WR/RB the rest of the draft and using the wire.

 

Cowboysfan8

Footballguy
My 3 redraft league champion winner QBs this season -

Rivers

Cam/Mayfield  6 pt td

Wilson/Trubisky

 
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Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
...but whatever does happen to Mahomes (either way good or bad) it will have nothing to do with what happened to Brady or Manning....but whatever...back to Mahomes...
I’m not sure what you don’t understand but no one thinks Mahomes will be affected by what happened with Brady and Manning. The only reason anyone has brought them up is to show seasons like that are outliers and not sustainable from season to season. 

It’s obvious Mahomes is capable of a 5,000 yard 50 TD season - but it’s hard to imagine they will be happening every season. 

Teams will figure him out a little, the KC defense may play a little better, key players may miss some time, a Chief RB may break off a few more TD runs....there are many reasons why Mahomes may not hit 50 TDs.

It’s possible he’ll actually improve as a QB but still put up lesser number simply because it’s not all that easy to throw for 50 TDs.

I don’t even think it’s a terrible idea to take him in Round 1 because as I said he’s pretty safe and fairly busy proof outside of injury - but safe doesn’t always win leagues and if he’s “just” a top QB but not a record setting QB his production may not make up the difference for your RBs and WRs that all get bumped back a round.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
My 3 redraft league champion winner QBs this season -

Rivers

Cam/Mayfield  6 pt td

Wilson/Trubisky
First reaction lol is the Mahomes owner in those leagues who probably got him in the 8th plus round must really suck at FF cause he should have been LOADED elsewhere IF his plan was Mahomes all along that late..lol..and still wouldn’t be surprised if Mahomes was on the second place team in those leagues...obviously in most leagues in comes down to the talent you have in weeks 14-16....but every Mahomes owner should have made the playoffs......

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
I’m not sure what you don’t understand but no one thinks Mahomes will be affected by what happened with Brady and Manning. The only reason anyone has brought them up is to show seasons like that are outliers and not sustainable from season to season. 

It’s obvious Mahomes is capable of a 5,000 yard 50 TD season - but it’s hard to imagine they will be happening every season. 

Teams will figure him out a little, the KC defense may play a little better, key players may miss some time, a Chief RB may break off a few more TD runs....there are many reasons why Mahomes may not hit 50 TDs.

It’s possible he’ll actually improve as a QB but still put up lesser number simply because it’s not all that easy to throw for 50 TDs.

I don’t even think it’s a terrible idea to take him in Round 1 because as I said he’s pretty safe and fairly busy proof outside of injury - but safe doesn’t always win leagues and if he’s “just” a top QB but not a record setting QB his production may not make up the difference for your RBs and WRs that all get bumped back a round.
After your first paragraph was what I said I was hoping to hear..some things with substance.....its not about not understanding....thats good stuff...

5000/50 isn’t going to happen every year.....but it feels like if anybody has a chance to come close to “sustaining it”.....he’s your guy

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
First reaction lol is the Mahomes owner in those leagues who probably got him in the 8th plus round must really suck at FF cause he should have been LOADED elsewhere IF his plan was Mahomes all along that late..lol..and still wouldn’t be surprised if Mahomes was on the second place team in those leagues...obviously in most leagues in comes down to the talent you have in weeks 14-16....but every Mahomes owner should have made the playoffs......
Counting my cheap online leagues I did, the Mahomes owner won the league in 2 of 11, and got 2nd place in 1.  It is not as simple as "Get the best player at a great value and you should win your league."  

 

barackdhouse

Footballguy
I think this discussion will be even more interesting a year from now. Not in a "I told you so" way, but because he will either regress, making him cheaper to acquire for 2020, and therefore even more tempting (to many, and assuming his regression isn't dramatically bad) - or he will repeat his success, making his 2020 draft hype beyond the stratosphere. If he gets either 50 TDs or 5000 yards again there will be people saying they'd take him before Barkley. Right now I don't know what I'm thinking for 2019 redraft. I just moved Julio for him straight up in one PPR dynasty league. I do usually wait on QB, but I will be among those tempted at the 1/2 turn this year. Certainly middle of the 2nd will be in play for me. He is a transcendent talent with the best floor and ceiling of the position. One of my big redrafts is a 6pts for QB league. I imagine he will go 1.01-1.04.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
Exactly 
Obviously kind of referencing a fairly high level of competition with discussions here on this message board......Im sure there are millions of fantasy leagues where the Mahomes owners finished in last place....

 
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Niles Standish

Footballguy
I think this discussion will be even more interesting a year from now. Not in a "I told you so" way, but because he will either regress, making him cheaper to acquire for 2020, and therefore even more tempting (to many, and assuming his regression isn't dramatically bad) - or he will repeat his success, making his 2020 draft hype beyond the stratosphere. If he gets either 50 TDs or 5000 yards again there will be people saying they'd take him before Barkley. Right now I don't know what I'm thinking for 2019 redraft. I just moved Julio for him straight up in one PPR dynasty league. I do usually wait on QB, but I will be among those tempted at the 1/2 turn this year. Certainly middle of the 2nd will be in play for me. He is a transcendent talent with the best floor and ceiling of the position. One of my big redrafts is a 6pts for QB league. I imagine he will go 1.01-1.04.
I might be missing something because I don't really play FF anymore.  But someone really traded a 23 year old QB who just threw for 50 TDs and has a shot to be a top 5 QB for the next 15 years for a 30 year old WR?  Seems crazy to me.

 

barackdhouse

Footballguy
I might be missing something because I don't really play FF anymore.  But someone really traded a 23 year old QB who just threw for 50 TDs and has a shot to be a top 5 QB for the next 15 years for a 30 year old WR?  Seems crazy to me.
In that particular league, we are disbanding after the 2020 season, which has a cumulative jackpot built up after 6 years. Assuming Julio plays in 2020, I don't get any *extra* value for Mahomes age. I can't reap any benefits past 2020. I should have mentioned that, it makes a big difference in that trade, I was just making an offhand remark about it.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I think this discussion will be even more interesting a year from now. Not in a "I told you so" way, but because he will either regress, making him cheaper to acquire for 2020, and therefore even more tempting (to many, and assuming his regression isn't dramatically bad) - or he will repeat his success, making his 2020 draft hype beyond the stratosphere. If he gets either 50 TDs or 5000 yards again there will be people saying they'd take him before Barkley. Right now I don't know what I'm thinking for 2019 redraft. I just moved Julio for him straight up in one PPR dynasty league. I do usually wait on QB, but I will be among those tempted at the 1/2 turn this year. Certainly middle of the 2nd will be in play for me. He is a transcendent talent with the best floor and ceiling of the position. One of my big redrafts is a 6pts for QB league. I imagine he will go 1.01-1.04.
I suspect he will go in the 1st round next year in our local league where we can start 2 quarterbacks, probably mid-first round. 

In our local auction, I will be throwing him up for bid immediately just to see how much he goes for right off the bat. 

 
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barackdhouse

Footballguy
I suspect he will go in the 1st round next year in our local league where we can start 2 quarterbacks, probably mid-first round. 

In our local auction, I will be throwing him up for bid immediately just to see how much he goes for right off the bat. 
Yeah my big auction is 6 pts for QB TDs and he will go for a ton. I think the most we ever paid was maybe 44/200. Manning? I forget but I think there will be a war for Mahomes. Nominating early is great. 

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
I think this discussion will be even more interesting a year from now. Not in a "I told you so" way, but because he will either regress, making him cheaper to acquire for 2020, and therefore even more tempting (to many, and assuming his regression isn't dramatically bad) - or he will repeat his success, making his 2020 draft hype beyond the stratosphere. If he gets either 50 TDs or 5000 yards again there will be people saying they'd take him before Barkley. Right now I don't know what I'm thinking for 2019 redraft. I just moved Julio for him straight up in one PPR dynasty league. I do usually wait on QB, but I will be among those tempted at the 1/2 turn this year. Certainly middle of the 2nd will be in play for me. He is a transcendent talent with the best floor and ceiling of the position. One of my big redrafts is a 6pts for QB league. I imagine he will go 1.01-1.04.
I remember similar comments to your first one heading into last year.  Lots of I wanna "wait and see".  Now it will be lots of I wanna "wait and see....if its sustainable".  Not sure there is a FF player on the planet that thinks he will continue to repeat those numbers consistently.  But I think your other highlighted comment above sums it up almost perfectly.  

 

Niles Standish

Footballguy
In that particular league, we are disbanding after the 2020 season, which has a cumulative jackpot built up after 6 years. Assuming Julio plays in 2020, I don't get any *extra* value for Mahomes age. I can't reap any benefits past 2020. I should have mentioned that, it makes a big difference in that trade, I was just making an offhand remark about it.
Makes sense now.  Thanks for the color.

 

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