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Should we be selling .......Christian Watson.......Seriously (1 Viewer)

T

The Dude

Footballguy
This is stemming from some data I shared in the Jordan Love thread.

Love is ranked QB4 in my leagues scoring

but he's:

averaging 14.5 completions
averaging 198 yards passing
got 6 TD passes - the whole team only has 7 (1 rushing)
averaging 1 TD pass per 5 completions; Mahomes threw a TD per 10 completions last year, as did Allen
got a 56% completion rate, Mahomes was 67% and Allen 63% last year
got the 2nd worst completion rate compared to expected in the league behind Fields (I have also seen it stated Love has the 3rd worst)

Also

He's averaging 1.37 fantasy pts per completion (not sure of the system PFN used)

2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes: 0.86
2021 MVP Aaron Rodgers: 0.85
2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers: 0.98

Regression is coming in a bad way.

But do you feel there is enough here to support a top 15 WR going forward? Completions and yardage are not good and the TD ratio likely can't be maintained.
It would take a lot of yardage to offset the likely reduction in TD rate

So should we be trading Watson asap while he's an unknown for 2023?
 
Two games.

Is that a meaningful enough sample size for anything?

Why can't his other statistics regress to their expected rates given his touchdown rate?

Isn't that just as possible?

This seems either really prescient or really silly. FBG was saying to go buy Watson because of Love's performance.
 
It's possible the real GB WR1 might help Love improve on these numbers
The way the OP described it the Wide Receiver has nothing to do with improving the QB's abilities.

I wonder what Hill and Waddle do for Tua?
 
rockaction said:
Two games.

Is that a meaningful enough sample size for anything?

Why can't his other statistics regress to their expected rates given his touchdown rate?

Isn't that just as possible?

This seems either really prescient or really silly. FBG was saying to go buy Watson because of Love's performance.
Click to expand...

could be but people are raving about his current performance. Whether some measures rise while touchdown rate lowers, are you suggesting he can keep a goat type mvp fantasy production?
 
Ministry of Pain said:
It's possible the real GB WR1 might help Love improve on these numbers
The way the OP described it the Wide Receiver has nothing to do with improving the QB's abilities.

I wonder what Hill and Waddle do for Tua?
Click to expand...

I think that’s the question I am asking. Can Love support a wr1? looks Like your point is watson will earn it by making love much better. maybe
 
You have the wrong name in the thread title. Jordan Love, yeah sell high, he isn't going to keep up that pace. What are you going to get for Christian Watson? In one of my leagues I have Swift, Brian Robinson, Etienne, Montgomery and Kamara. I might trade Montgomery straight up for him, but only because he is injured and going to miss a few weeks.
 
menobrown said:
I doubt many people who bought Watson did so because of Love just as I doubt many would be selling based on what Love has done in his two games.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the reply. Whoever bought Watson had an expected level of performance from Love - and I think it may be worse than expected which would lead to an option to sell Watson.
 
Last year, Watson was also on a great pace for the amount of time he was on the field. He scored 9 TD's in what amounted to about 9 full games played.
 
rockaction said:
Two games.

Is that a meaningful enough sample size for anything?

Why can't his other statistics regress to their expected rates given his touchdown rate?

Isn't that just as possible?

This seems either really prescient or really silly. FBG was saying to go buy Watson because of Love's performance.
Click to expand...
Two games is not meaningful but there are exceptions.

in his case it looks like hes got an injury. so its tough to blame a guy for not performing under the circumstances. if it looks like he will be hurt for a while, that may affect your decision to keep him (or not keep him as the case may be).

i would recommend you hold onto him at least for now. if the injury looks to be more long term, then I'd look into other options
 
Will Jordan Love continue to throw 3 TDs a game? Obviously, the answer is no that would be 51 on the season, and I would bet against even Mahomes doing that.

Will Jordan Love also only complete 247 passes this season? Also no. Only Justin Fields had fewer last year among starters. Rodgers had 350 last year.

I think its very important to note that Watson is the team's best WR (I'd argue by a wide margin) and they've also been without Aaron Jones for 5 quarters. Those are the offenses 2 best weapons, both for big plays, and chain moving.

I think its somewhat encouraging, and perhaps a feather in LaFleur's cap, that Love has been as productive as he has, despite not really playing all that well, and missing his best guys. There have been a lot of plays where guys are just wildly open, I don't see that stopping when the weapons are better players. While the passing TDs are unsustainable (the 6-1 pass/run ratio, and the 3 passing per game) its also possible that better players being on the field (and more experience) leads to more plays/attempts/yards/etc.

I kinda think both Watson and Aaron Jones, but especially Watson, are more in the buy-low category. On the other hand, I don't think Love needs to continue to be a top-3 or even top-12 QB for all these things to be true.
 
I'd be looking to buy actually. He's a physical freak who's going to continue his great play once healthy. I think there's a good chance he misses this week and plays Thursday though.
 
Well I dont know. This is a really complicated case. There are a lot of ins and outs and what have yous. A lot of strands to keep in my head man. You know. A lot of strands in old dooders head.

Seriously
 
N Zone said:
No. Also, Jordan Love is good and those touchdown passes aren't just lucky. Watch the game and stop just analyzing the stats. Stats matter too though of course. Completion percentage is not as important as Yards per Attempt and Love is at 7.6 which is good.

Jordan Love is FIRST in Quarterback Rating at 118.8 through two games https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/passing/2023/REG/all/passingpasserrating/DESC
Click to expand...

Love's TD rate right now is roughly twice Rodgers career rate. I will stick to stats 90% of the time.
 
The Dude said:
N Zone said:
No. Also, Jordan Love is good and those touchdown passes aren't just lucky. Watch the game and stop just analyzing the stats. Stats matter too though of course. Completion percentage is not as important as Yards per Attempt and Love is at 7.6 which is good.

Jordan Love is FIRST in Quarterback Rating at 118.8 through two games https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/passing/2023/REG/all/passingpasserrating/DESC
Click to expand...

Love's TD rate right now is roughly twice Rodgers career rate. I will stick to stats 90% of the time.
Click to expand...
Ok. You’re right. We all agree. Feel better?

If J Love has to operate all year without his best RB, best WR, and two of his top OLs, then yes — this pace of TDs is nowhere near sustainable.
 
not sure why you'd sell watson right now, there's nothing to go off of yet. have to wait for the return game where he goes nuts and then trade him.
I like what I see from Love so far, in an offense missing its biggest playmaker. do the TDs stay relatively static ( 2+ per game) but the completions just shift to watson, or does watson add to the passing yardage and overall stats for Love? tough call on all of this. I think today gives a good indication of Love going forward, saints d is pretty good. Packers are -1. we'll see !
 
It stinks that he got injured just before the start of the season but it happens. Selling him for pennies on the dollar doesn’t really appeal to me unless it’s absolutely necessary.

I’m actually encouraged by Love as he’s been better than I expected. Watson will be fine…he just needs to get healthy and play. The opportunity and talent is there.
 
Banger said:
It stinks that he got injured just before the start of the season but it happens. Selling him for pennies on the dollar doesn’t really appeal to me unless it’s absolutely necessary.

I’m actually encouraged by Love as he’s been better than I expected. Watson will be fine…he just needs to get healthy and play. The opportunity and talent is there.
Click to expand...
This.

And I hate all things Packers. It would be nice if they didnt have good QB for a change. Thats pretty annoying to me as a Vikings fan how blessed they have been for decades at the position.

But this is correct.
 
What I'm not seeing in this thread at all is anyone talking about the other wrs on the roster. People are catching those Love td passes.
 
Weebs210 said:
I'd be looking to buy actually. He's a physical freak who's going to continue his great play once healthy. I think there's a good chance he misses this week and plays Thursday though.
Click to expand...
I'd like to buy but he's owned by a GB homer and I'm not willing to pay 110 cents on the dollar for him
 
Biabreakable said:
Banger said:
It stinks that he got injured just before the start of the season but it happens. Selling him for pennies on the dollar doesn’t really appeal to me unless it’s absolutely necessary.

I’m actually encouraged by Love as he’s been better than I expected. Watson will be fine…he just needs to get healthy and play. The opportunity and talent is there.
Click to expand...
This.

And I hate all things Packers. It would be nice if they didnt have good QB for a change. Thats pretty annoying to me as a Vikings fan how blessed they have been for decades at the position.

But this is correct.
Click to expand...
Who was their last "bad" full time QB? Even Majkowski (sp?) was decent. Randy Wright in 86 maybe?
 
wgoldsph said:
What I'm not seeing in this thread at all is anyone talking about the other wrs on the roster. People are catching those Love td passes.
Click to expand...
I think it’s because Watson>>>all the other wrs. They are filling the gap until he gets back. I was actually a bit hopeful about Doubs and stated him last year because of his camp but he doesn’t seem like he’s gonna be a guy that sticks around too long
 
Statorama said:
Biabreakable said:
Banger said:
It stinks that he got injured just before the start of the season but it happens. Selling him for pennies on the dollar doesn’t really appeal to me unless it’s absolutely necessary.

I’m actually encouraged by Love as he’s been better than I expected. Watson will be fine…he just needs to get healthy and play. The opportunity and talent is there.
Click to expand...
This.

And I hate all things Packers. It would be nice if they didnt have good QB for a change. Thats pretty annoying to me as a Vikings fan how blessed they have been for decades at the position.

But this is correct.
Click to expand...
Who was their last "bad" full time QB? Even Majkowski (sp?) was decent. Randy Wright in 86 maybe?
Click to expand...
Yeah its been forever since they had a bad QB. They were a bad team when I first started paying attention to football way back then. Even Majick was alright although that was short lived. They have had excellent QB play since they traded for Favre. Thats why it is so annoying to me as a Vikings fan. Most teams have at least a few years of poor QB play over such a long time frame, but not the Packers, aside from maybe a year or two where Rodgers was injured.

Meanwhile the Vikings have had a long string of journeymen free agent QBs most of who were past their prime when the Vikings acquired them, interspersed with some rookie QB busts or guys who got injured like Bridewater and Culpepper. There is no comparison. Cousins for all his flaws has been one of the better QB the Vikings have had over the same long time frame.

Its still only 2 games. I can hope maybe Love will just end up being average compared to Favre and Rodgers, but he is off to a good start.

I will begrudgingly say the Packers have managed this right, getting a QB before their star was washed up, developing that QB for a few years behind the starter before turning it over to the new QB. I dont know if there is any NFL team in the entire league that has managed to have such continuity with the quality of their QB play as the Packers have.
 
The Dude said:
Ministry of Pain said:
It's possible the real GB WR1 might help Love improve on these numbers
The way the OP described it the Wide Receiver has nothing to do with improving the QB's abilities.

I wonder what Hill and Waddle do for Tua?
Click to expand...

I think that’s the question I am asking. Can Love support a wr1? looks Like your point is watson will earn it by making love much better. maybe
Click to expand...
Does he have to be a wr 1 to have value? Was he even drafted as a w1... anywhere? I know I drafted him hoping he would be a wr 2 as my 3rd wr.
 
The Dude said:
This is stemming from some data I shared in the Jordan Love thread.

Love is ranked QB4 in my leagues scoring

but he's:

averaging 14.5 completions
averaging 198 yards passing
got 6 TD passes - the whole team only has 7 (1 rushing)
averaging 1 TD pass per 5 completions; Mahomes threw a TD per 10 completions last year, as did Allen
got a 56% completion rate, Mahomes was 67% and Allen 63% last year
got the 2nd worst completion rate compared to expected in the league behind Fields (I have also seen it stated Love has the 3rd worst)

Also

He's averaging 1.37 fantasy pts per completion (not sure of the system PFN used)

2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes: 0.86
2021 MVP Aaron Rodgers: 0.85
2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers: 0.98

Regression is coming in a bad way.

But do you feel there is enough here to support a top 15 WR going forward? Completions and yardage are not good and the TD ratio likely can't be maintained.
It would take a lot of yardage to offset the likely reduction in TD rate

So should we be trading Watson asap while he's an unknown for 2023?
Click to expand...
Let's restart this conversation, am I to understand that Love basically had NOTHING before the 4th Q?

22 of 44 is pathetic in the modern NFL
And yet the Packers won the game so I bet he doesn't get a lot of heat this week vs if they lost the game and fell to 1-2
 
Ministry of Pain said:
The Dude said:
This is stemming from some data I shared in the Jordan Love thread.

Love is ranked QB4 in my leagues scoring

but he's:

averaging 14.5 completions
averaging 198 yards passing
got 6 TD passes - the whole team only has 7 (1 rushing)
averaging 1 TD pass per 5 completions; Mahomes threw a TD per 10 completions last year, as did Allen
got a 56% completion rate, Mahomes was 67% and Allen 63% last year
got the 2nd worst completion rate compared to expected in the league behind Fields (I have also seen it stated Love has the 3rd worst)

Also

He's averaging 1.37 fantasy pts per completion (not sure of the system PFN used)

2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes: 0.86
2021 MVP Aaron Rodgers: 0.85
2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers: 0.98

Regression is coming in a bad way.

But do you feel there is enough here to support a top 15 WR going forward? Completions and yardage are not good and the TD ratio likely can't be maintained.
It would take a lot of yardage to offset the likely reduction in TD rate

So should we be trading Watson asap while he's an unknown for 2023?
Click to expand...
Let's restart this conversation, am I to understand that Love basically had NOTHING before the 4th Q?

22 of 44 is pathetic in the modern NFL
And yet the Packers won the game so I bet he doesn't get a lot of heat this week vs if they lost the game and fell to 1-2
Click to expand...
I own Love everywhere and I am looking to sell him. He is a really average (at best) NFL QB. His stats are so inflated right now that it’s not funny. I have a Packer homer in one of my leagues that has a Love jersey. I will be dangling him.
 
The current offense is as bad as it will ever be for Watson. Between the abhorrent play calling, turnstile offensive line, and maybe the worst QB in the NFL, it can only go up for Watson. Gotta think the Packers bring in a new QB and offensive coordinator next season. I would be selling in redraft and buying in dynasty.
 
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