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Footballguy
NHL ratings are down by nearly the same margins, as well as the Preakness.NBA ratings down 70%, what does this say about the upcoming election? Is this the "real" pulse of the country and the election?
NHL ratings are down by nearly the same margins, as well as the Preakness.NBA ratings down 70%, what does this say about the upcoming election? Is this the "real" pulse of the country and the election?
Stupid woke horsesNHL ratings are down by nearly the same margins, as well as the Preakness.
What does this have to do with polling?PennStater77 said:Poor Joe don’t even remember Mitt Romney.
https://twitter.com/realjameswoods/status/1315709797212196864?s=21
or that is he is running for President
https://twitter.com/steveguest/status/1315736587586674688?s=21
This plus the Graham +6 poll tells me that Harrison is a long-shot at best. His fundraising is fantastic but unfortunately it won't unseat Graham this go-round.Morning Consult (B/C) released a ton of state polls today:
ARIZONA Biden +3 (49-46)
COLORADO Biden +14 (54-40)
FLORIDA Biden +5 (51-46)
GEORGIA Trump +2 (47-49)
MICHIGAN Biden +7 (51-44)
MINNESOTA Biden +6 (50-44)
NORTH CAROLINA Biden +4 (50-46)
OHIO Trump +3 (46-49)
PENNSYLVANIA Biden +8 (52-44)
SOUTH CAROLINA Trump +12 (42-54)
TEXAS Trump +2 (47-49)
WISCONSIN Biden +7 (51-44)
Nothing too spectacular. Like other state polls, these point to more of an ~8 point national lead for Biden rather than the >10 point lead he has in most national polling averages.
Florida numbers should be in early, and if it goes Biden, we might see a 2nd round TKO at president, and everyone spending rest of night focusing on the undercard (majority race).Morning Consult (B/C) released a ton of state polls today:
ARIZONA Biden +3 (49-46)
COLORADO Biden +14 (54-40)
FLORIDA Biden +5 (51-46)
GEORGIA Trump +2 (47-49)
MICHIGAN Biden +7 (51-44)
MINNESOTA Biden +6 (50-44)
NORTH CAROLINA Biden +4 (50-46)
OHIO Trump +3 (46-49)
PENNSYLVANIA Biden +8 (52-44)
SOUTH CAROLINA Trump +12 (42-54)
TEXAS Trump +2 (47-49)
WISCONSIN Biden +7 (51-44)
Nothing too spectacular. Like other state polls, these point to more of an ~8 point national lead for Biden rather than the >10 point lead he has in most national polling averages.
They’ll have to allow for some coverage of Trump handcuffing himself to his White House tanning bed.Florida numbers should be in early, and if it goes Biden, we might see a 2nd round TKO at president, and everyone spending rest of night focusing on the undercard (majority race).
Trump is on the record as saying Florida mail-ins are fair too.Florida numbers should be in early, and if it goes Biden, we might see a 2nd round TKO at president, and everyone spending rest of night focusing on the undercard (majority race).
As if that matters that he said something before and was expected to be held to itTrump is on the record as saying Florida mail-ins are fair too.
I'd much rather point to Florida as proof of a Biden victory than the vote counting cluster#### that PA, WI and MI will be. You may be right that it might not end up mattering to him but I think it will for other Republicans.As if that matters that he said something before and was expected to be held to it
Agreed. This is ok to talk about assuming the video is real but put it in the correct thread talking about Biden.What does this have to do with polling?
Well, Clinton's highest chances of winning down the stretch was 88.1% on 10/17/2016. That was between the 2nd and 3rd debates. By 11/4, she was down to 64.5%. I don't remember what caused that big a drop off in a little more than 2 weeks.538 has Trump's chance down to 13%. I'm struggling to contain my cautious optimism.
Comey: I was sure Clinton would win election when I reopened email inquiryWell, Clinton's highest chances of winning down the stretch was 88.1% on 10/17/2016. That was between the 2nd and 3rd debates. By 11/4, she was down to 64.5%. I don't remember what caused that big a drop off in a little more than 2 weeks.
My recollection is that Nate Silver adjusted his model a week or two before the election in 2016 because he felt he was not properly accounting for the potential variance due to the large number of undecideds. That moved it down from the 80's to about 70%. That's why I think it's apples to oranges comparing it to the same date in 2016. Two different models.Well, Clinton's highest chances of winning down the stretch was 88.1% on 10/17/2016. That was between the 2nd and 3rd debates. By 11/4, she was down to 64.5%. I don't remember what caused that big a drop off in a little more than 2 weeks.
On 10/17/2016, 538 had the electoral votes projected at 346 to 192 in favor of Clinton. As of today, they have things projected at 346 to 192 in favor of Biden. Biden right now is listed as having an 86% chance to win. On this day in 2016, Clinton was given a 86% to win. That has to be a pretty ominous coincidence.
This. I've been listening to all the 538 podcasts. He consistently reiterates that you can't compare the two models because of refinements. The major difference is the 20% of votes in 2016 that were being tracked as undecided or independents. Those folks in the end broke heavily for Trump. That population is much smaller this time around and have broken more evenly or for Biden. So even if Republicans have more registrations this time around it doesn't make up for the solidification of the 20%.My recollection is that Nate Silver adjusted his model a week or two before the election in 2016 because he felt he was not properly accounting for the potential variance due to the large number of undecideds. That moved it down from the 80's to about 70%. That's why I think it's apples to oranges comparing it to the same date in 2016. Two different models.
My concern is that 538 is not accounting for voter suppression tactics in swing states (Florida, Pennsylvania, even Texas), nor is it accounting for issues involving heavy use of absentee ballots (higher likelihood of ballot rejection, higher likelihood of USPS failure, etc.).This. I've been listening to all the 538 podcasts. He consistently reiterates that you can't compare the two models because of refinements. The major difference is the 20% of votes in 2016 that were being tracked as undecided or independents. Those folks in the end broke heavily for Trump. That population is much smaller this time around and have broken more evenly or for Biden. So even if Republicans have more registrations this time around it doesn't make up for the solidification of the 20%.My recollection is that Nate Silver adjusted his model a week or two before the election in 2016 because he felt he was not properly accounting for the potential variance due to the large number of undecideds. That moved it down from the 80's to about 70%. That's why I think it's apples to oranges comparing it to the same date in 2016. Two different models.
Something I would think everyone agrees with.
Paging @ctsu
@Football Jones and I have a $50 bet with even money with him picking Trump. He might want in on this action.
I know, GB. I saw +160 this morning. Be interesting to see where it settles.Sorry if not clear. Just saying there are ways for Trump fans to make money betting thru legit legitimate sports books.
It could be one of those things where one hopes to lose but is happy to pay the ransom.I know, GB. I saw +160 this morning. Be interesting to see where it settles.
The Senate control odds are even more surprising than the Presidential odds to me.
Most of the sites are relatively similar . . .The Senate control odds are even more surprising than the Presidential odds to me.
It's a lot tougher (in my case impossible) to follow the various senate races well enough to have a solid overview of where things stand nationally, so I hadn't been paying attention. I had just been assuming the Democrats couldn't make enough inroads without also losing some seats to flip things. Seeing the lean, and the consensus about it is surprising for me.Most of the sites are relatively similar . . .
Election Betting Odds sit - Dems 61% to control the Senate, 87% to control the House.
538 - Dems 69% to control the Senate, 95% to control the House.
RealClear - Dems favored to hold 51 Senate seats, Dems ahead 214-186 with 34 toss ups in the House.
Legit Legitimate here with Truss Trustworthy, attorneys at lawl.Sorry if not clear. Just saying there are ways for Trump fans to make money betting thru legit legitimate sports books.
Cook Political Report will give you a good idea at a glance. Democrats will probably lose Alabama but look good elsewhere (maybe MI will be a problem but I don’t think so). Meanwhile, Republicans have a ton of contested races including beingl behind in Arizona and Colorado.It's a lot tougher (in my case impossible) to follow the various senate races well enough to have a solid overview of where things stand nationally, so I hadn't been paying attention. I had just been assuming the Democrats couldn't make enough inroads without also losing some seats to flip things. Seeing the lean, and the consensus about it is surprising for me.
I fully expect Trump to get an Election Day bump similar to what he got in 2016. Maybe it won't be enough to win Michigan or Wisconsin, but I think he wins Florida easily and I think Pennsylvania is very much in play.My concern is that 538 is not accounting for voter suppression tactics in swing states (Florida, Pennsylvania, even Texas), nor is it accounting for issues involving heavy use of absentee ballots (higher likelihood of ballot rejection, higher likelihood of USPS failure, etc.).This. I've been listening to all the 538 podcasts. He consistently reiterates that you can't compare the two models because of refinements. The major difference is the 20% of votes in 2016 that were being tracked as undecided or independents. Those folks in the end broke heavily for Trump. That population is much smaller this time around and have broken more evenly or for Biden. So even if Republicans have more registrations this time around it doesn't make up for the solidification of the 20%.
I also don't think that any of the pollsters are accounting for the high level of enthusiasm of Trump's base.
I also think the polling margin of error is going to extremely favor Trump in all those potential tipping point states, but even if that's 3-4% (ie max) Biden still pulls this out. Still terrified, but for an odd reason feel more comfortable about Dems pulling this out in 2020 than what I saw/felt in 2016.I fully expect Trump to get an Election Day bump similar to what he got in 2016. Maybe it won't be enough to win Michigan or Wisconsin, but I think he wins Florida easily and I think Pennsylvania is very much in play.
I honestly never know what to think with these polls but why do you think the bolded?I fully expect Trump to get an Election Day bump similar to what he got in 2016. Maybe it won't be enough to win Michigan or Wisconsin, but I think he wins Florida easily and I think Pennsylvania is very much in play.
1. incumbents tend to get a bump. (Because voters decide that they'd rather stick with the devil they know)I honestly never know what to think with these polls but why do you think the bolded?I fully expect Trump to get an Election Day bump similar to what he got in 2016. Maybe it won't be enough to win Michigan or Wisconsin, but I think he wins Florida easily and I think Pennsylvania is very much in play.
I’m not sure this helps him.4. Trump's seemingly quick recovery from COVID will allow him to campaign hard and heavy in swing states.
1. I think most undecided voters this year will not vote. The undecideds I have heard basically are lifelong Republicans who want Trump out.1. incumbents tend to get a bump. (Because voters decide that they'd rather stick with the devil they know)
2. Republicans tend to get a bump. (Close races tend to go to Republicans these days.)
3. Donald Trump tends to get a bump. I still don't think the pollsters have accounted for all of the shy Trump voters.
4. Trump's seemingly quick recovery from COVID will allow him to campaign hard and heavy in swing states.
I think a lot of #1 will become ‘shy Biden voters’. Vote for Biden because they want to make sure Trump doesn’t get another 4 years but will never admit they did it.1. I think most undecided voters this year will not vote. The undecideds I have heard basically are lifelong Republicans who want Trump out.
2. I am not sure there is evidence for this.
3. I do not believe there are shy Trump voters.
4. As a general rule, across Trump's time in office, his approval goes down the more visible he is.
I do think people are "shy" or scared to acknowledge they are going to vote for Trump.1. incumbents tend to get a bump. (Because voters decide that they'd rather stick with the devil they know)
2. Republicans tend to get a bump. (Close races tend to go to Republicans these days.)
3. Donald Trump tends to get a bump. I still don't think the pollsters have accounted for all of the shy Trump voters.
4. Trump's seemingly quick recovery from COVID will allow him to campaign hard and heavy in swing states.
Saw similar reports from Austin and also continued high numbers of new/early voters in Florida.Reports of huge amounts of early voting in Texas: Tweet link
Wow. Polls still haven’t closed because of long lines in Harris County (#Houston), but with 128,000 voters and counting we have surpassed the entire state of Georgia’s first-day turnout yesterday. Our old record was 68k. Just remarkable.
high turnout is terrible for the GOPReports of huge amounts of early voting in Texas: Tweet link
Wow. Polls still haven’t closed because of long lines in Harris County (#Houston), but with 128,000 voters and counting we have surpassed the entire state of Georgia’s first-day turnout yesterday. Our old record was 68k. Just remarkable.
Speaking of which: Nate Silverhigh turnout is terrible for the GOP