Major
Footballguy
My concern is Rick Smith. Just hoping he manages to get our first round pick right again. His history is fairly miserable after that.
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2021 Houston Texans - (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter coolnerd
- Start date
Jayded
Footballguy
I'm still trying to wrap my head around exactly what Watson means for the offense and his fit with the team. I'm still excited by the potential but am curious on others' thoughts regarding their concerns with him.
Looking back on his college stats, his completion percentage remained relatively flat year over year, but his QBR went down (YPA down, interceptions up). In the 2016 season against five ranked opponents, his QBR hovered around 150 and he threw multiple interceptions in three of the five games. He was at his best in the 4th quarter with the pressure on and didn't churn a bunch of unrealistic stats against inferior competition, maintaining his completion percentage but throwing a lower percentage of picks.
When the lights shined the brightest it brought out both his best and worst qualities. His 4th quarters against quality competition were the best of any of the QBs in the draft, yet his first three quarters left some head scratchers in those same games. He gets up for those games but took a while to dial in and realize he needed to play within himself and let his teammates help make places without forcing things. By the 4th quarter he'd get that figured out.
My read on him boils down to this: He's the kind of QB who will benefit from playing early as opposed to some of the others in the draft. When he recognizes he doesn't have to make all of the heroic plays, he's wildly successful. When he thinks he has to be the hero, he forces things. As a rookie, my hope is that he'd recognize he HAS to dial it back and can't be the man on day 1 and that it'd actually help his progress to start him from a humble position to have to work up from. Once he's in that dialed in zone, he's killer. If he sits on the bench a few years and is suddenly burdened as "the man" I'd be afraid he'd adopt the hero mentality rather than ramping up to the locked in zone.
Looking back on his college stats, his completion percentage remained relatively flat year over year, but his QBR went down (YPA down, interceptions up). In the 2016 season against five ranked opponents, his QBR hovered around 150 and he threw multiple interceptions in three of the five games. He was at his best in the 4th quarter with the pressure on and didn't churn a bunch of unrealistic stats against inferior competition, maintaining his completion percentage but throwing a lower percentage of picks.
When the lights shined the brightest it brought out both his best and worst qualities. His 4th quarters against quality competition were the best of any of the QBs in the draft, yet his first three quarters left some head scratchers in those same games. He gets up for those games but took a while to dial in and realize he needed to play within himself and let his teammates help make places without forcing things. By the 4th quarter he'd get that figured out.
My read on him boils down to this: He's the kind of QB who will benefit from playing early as opposed to some of the others in the draft. When he recognizes he doesn't have to make all of the heroic plays, he's wildly successful. When he thinks he has to be the hero, he forces things. As a rookie, my hope is that he'd recognize he HAS to dial it back and can't be the man on day 1 and that it'd actually help his progress to start him from a humble position to have to work up from. Once he's in that dialed in zone, he's killer. If he sits on the bench a few years and is suddenly burdened as "the man" I'd be afraid he'd adopt the hero mentality rather than ramping up to the locked in zone.
GregR
Footballguy
I don't have anything against Watson specifically... but the things that I think should matter most for a QB (completion percentage/accuracy, speed of processing information, decision making, ability to feel the pass rush and move while still keeping his eyes downfield) have a couple of his weaker areas amongst them. While areas that I feel are often overblown (dramatic moments, how he did "in the clutch" or against big opponents, how his teammates respond to him, height, arm strength) have amongst them the areas that I most often hear as his biggest positives.
I think O'brien has his work cut out for him. There is a lot to like about Watson if he can develop, I don't mean for the previous paragraph to sound like I'm just dumping on the guy without any hope for him. But when you can't get a QB who checks off all the boxes, then I think the boxes you do check off with a given prospect you want to be the most important ones. I'm just afraid Watson's boxes that are checked are the ones that are nice to have but not the ones important to have, and not necessarily indicative of NFL success.
I think O'brien has his work cut out for him. There is a lot to like about Watson if he can develop, I don't mean for the previous paragraph to sound like I'm just dumping on the guy without any hope for him. But when you can't get a QB who checks off all the boxes, then I think the boxes you do check off with a given prospect you want to be the most important ones. I'm just afraid Watson's boxes that are checked are the ones that are nice to have but not the ones important to have, and not necessarily indicative of NFL success.
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dhockster
Footballguy
Especially when Dak Prescott was still on the board when the Texans took Ervin.
GregR
Footballguy
Early betting lines for the season.
Week 1
Jaguars at Texans (-4.5)
Week 2
Texans at Bengals (-2)
Week 3
Texans at Patriots (-9)
Week 4
Titans at Texans (-3)
Week 5
Chiefs at Texans (-1)
Week 6
Browns at Texans (-9.5)
Week 7
BYE
Week 8
Texans at Seahawks (-7.5)
Week 9
Colts at Texans (-3)
Week 10
Texans (-3) at Rams
Week 11
Cardinals at Texans (-2.5)
Week 12
Texans at Ravens (-3)
Week 13
Texans at Titans (-2.5)
Week 14
49ers at Texans (-9)
Week 15
Texans (-1) at Jaguars
Week 16
Steelers (-1) at Texans
Week 1
Jaguars at Texans (-4.5)
Week 2
Texans at Bengals (-2)
Week 3
Texans at Patriots (-9)
Week 4
Titans at Texans (-3)
Week 5
Chiefs at Texans (-1)
Week 6
Browns at Texans (-9.5)
Week 7
BYE
Week 8
Texans at Seahawks (-7.5)
Week 9
Colts at Texans (-3)
Week 10
Texans (-3) at Rams
Week 11
Cardinals at Texans (-2.5)
Week 12
Texans at Ravens (-3)
Week 13
Texans at Titans (-2.5)
Week 14
49ers at Texans (-9)
Week 15
Texans (-1) at Jaguars
Week 16
Steelers (-1) at Texans
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
Rick has botched offseasons pretty badly, but to me this is the worst one yet. We blow a 2nd rounder to clear cap space (from Rick's botched contract last year) for Romo and then fail to get Romo so we freak out and trade TWO first round picks for a poor man's Jameis Winston. I really, really hope he pans out. I also really hope we don't overpay Hopkins with the cap money we bought with that 2nd round pick. He's a good, not great WR. Don't be fooled by those garbage time stats from 2015. If he gets a top 5 WR salary...
Hey, FF Ninja... I thoroughly enjoyed reading your assessment and I considered you as one of the best people with opinions with regards to FF dynasty. I agreed with your assessment on Hopkins' value and I am even more surprised how high he is ranked in 2017 PPR WR ranking. Top 10, no... Top 20, yes. Texans are run-first offense with great defense to sustain their lead. Hopkins had a career year in 2015 but closer look on his 2015 stats was sheer volume of targets in 1st half. Then it tailed downward in 2nd half when Texans defense picked up the slack and their rushing offense spiked upward.
So, having said this... what's your take on Hopkins this year with Texans now that their QB situation has "improved" a little bit with Savage and Watson?
My problem with Hopkins' 2015 stats has always largely been about the garbage time. I forget now, but I think his targets while "trailing big" (according to FBG splits, which I assume means 2 scores) was something like 35% of his total targets. Compare that to other guys deemed elite and they were in the 15% range IIRC. Hopkins will never approach 2015 numbers again. As for the QB improvement, I have little hope for Savage or Watson as a rookie (not jazzed about him long term, either). Sure, they'd have a hard time being worse than Oz, but sadly they will likely fall short of Fitzpatrick and Hoyer. With JJ back and Clowney hopefully playing to his potential, combined with the drafting of Foreman, I'm guessing the Texans won't be slinging it that much this year. Plus, they seem to have gotten the TE involved which was not the case back in 2015. So long story short, I'd expect WR2 numbers from Hopkins in all formats, although PPR is likely kinder to him since I'm not expecting his YPR to be above 14. I'm not a Fuller fan, so I feel like Hopkins doesn't have a lot of competition for targets even if the passing attempts go down. So if you own him in dynasty but can't move him, he won't kill you, but if you're drafting a startup this year, by all means, save those auction dollars for someone else!
Houston turmOiler
Footballguy
Why the hell is Clark still around? That guy should've been the first cut of the offseason. Jeff Allen shouldn't have been far behind. Really hope the rookie Davenport is ready earlier than expected or Giacomini is healthy and takes the RT job. While we're at it maybe Nick Martin can slide over to RG and Mancz can stay at C. Clark and Allen are a pathetic right side of any OL.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I'm not even a huge Texans homer / fan but this is logical and sound suggestion. Rick Smith did Texans no such favor with last year's roster mismanagement upon signing Brock Osweiler for a contract with $37M guaranteed (and subsequently boot him off with 2018 2nd round pick as sweetener)... WITHOUT his coaching team's input / scouting.
GregR
Footballguy
An few interesting comments about Watson in this article. Though at this point it qualifies as preseason smoke. I'm hopeful about him, but not assuming he's going to be a franchise QB.
http://www.espn.com/blog/houston-texans/post/_/id/19892/the-case-for-uncommon-deshaun-watson-as-the-texans-starting-qb
http://www.espn.com/blog/houston-texans/post/_/id/19892/the-case-for-uncommon-deshaun-watson-as-the-texans-starting-qb
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GregR
Footballguy
So delayed post about the first preseason game. I didn't pay enough attention to Cunningham but it sounded like he had a good game from the PFF ratings.
Watson had me worried at first, with the inaccuracy on those vertical routes. Though as the game progressed, I really liked his quick decision making ability he showed on a lot of plays. He made some mistakes and maybe fled the pocket too soon sometimes, but he did well against the blitz. Think it was NFL.com that had a good article breaking down the plays he was blitzed on.
I don't want to read too much out of one game, but I've always worried that O'brien is looking for someone with Brady's fast decision-making to run his offense, and that he'll probably never find someone else like that. Not saying Watson is going to be Brady, but if he continues to show what he did and build on it, I could see him being the kind of QB who makes a defense pay for mistakes.
Watson had me worried at first, with the inaccuracy on those vertical routes. Though as the game progressed, I really liked his quick decision making ability he showed on a lot of plays. He made some mistakes and maybe fled the pocket too soon sometimes, but he did well against the blitz. Think it was NFL.com that had a good article breaking down the plays he was blitzed on.
I don't want to read too much out of one game, but I've always worried that O'brien is looking for someone with Brady's fast decision-making to run his offense, and that he'll probably never find someone else like that. Not saying Watson is going to be Brady, but if he continues to show what he did and build on it, I could see him being the kind of QB who makes a defense pay for mistakes.
Braxton Miller now with an ankle sprain, supposedly not serious but they did sign Bruce Ellington.
Watson took a nice first step but there's still a long way to go.
O'line looked poor with the same guys struggling as usual and the young guys looking exactly that, too inexperienced to really help much this year. Need Duane Brown back - just extend him at this point. He may be getting up there in age, but he's still playing at a high level. FA O'line market for next year doesn't look encouraging to me at the moment but that's still a long way away. Hopefully we can fill holes with that cap space next year and then spend most of our remaining picks on O'line.
Countdown until Hopkins extension? Smith usually gets extensions done around the 4th week of pre-season if I recall correctly?
Watson took a nice first step but there's still a long way to go.
O'line looked poor with the same guys struggling as usual and the young guys looking exactly that, too inexperienced to really help much this year. Need Duane Brown back - just extend him at this point. He may be getting up there in age, but he's still playing at a high level. FA O'line market for next year doesn't look encouraging to me at the moment but that's still a long way away. Hopefully we can fill holes with that cap space next year and then spend most of our remaining picks on O'line.
Countdown until Hopkins extension? Smith usually gets extensions done around the 4th week of pre-season if I recall correctly?
GregR
Footballguy
The Houston Texans signed wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to a five-year, $81 million contract extension with $49 million guaranteed, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
After trading Osweiler in March, the Texans had almost $31 million in cap space, and they put some of it to use on Thursday. Houston also gave contract extensions to free safety Andre Hal, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and fullback Jay Prosch.
After trading Osweiler in March, the Texans had almost $31 million in cap space, and they put some of it to use on Thursday. Houston also gave contract extensions to free safety Andre Hal, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and fullback Jay Prosch.
GregR
Footballguy
That would be a $16.2m average over the 5 years. If you including what he's making in the remaining year on his rookie contract he averages $14.8m over the 6 years. He's making $10m more than Julio in their 5 year extensions, though that's mainly because the cap went up in the 2 years since Julio got his. Julio's yearly average is a higher percentage of the team cap than Hop will make. AJ and Dez are similarly higher percentages of the cap. Antonio Brown makes more (extension this year same as Hop).
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LOL, just knew when I saw this thread bumped and Ninja as the last commenter it was going to be a post about Hopkins new contract.
Despite how strong the defense looks, not optimistic for the season. While they intentionally shuffled up all the linemen throughout the game against New Orleans they still looked worse than I expected. Savage inept, Watson making rookie mistakes throwing it up for grabs when the pocket collapsed. The INT that did occur wasn't on him (bounced off the receiver's hands), but he should have had at least 1 more. Of course only scrub WR's playing and Miller for just a token series didn't help. Need our WR's and backup RB's to get healthy to help this poor offense.
Not sure what is going on with the Duane Brown situation, he appears poised and committed to holding out for the first 8 games, which seems dumb to me considering he will be 34 after next season when his contract ends. I guess he's trying to leverage the rest of the line being terrible in the hopes the Texans cave and give him an extension now.
Jags are a dumpster fire yet again, who knows what Luck's condition is, leaving Tennessee the only competition for the conference. Personally I think they are way overrated and the whole of the AFC South is going to be embarrassing yet again. Can't wait for some more 13 to 10 defensive battles this year!
Despite how strong the defense looks, not optimistic for the season. While they intentionally shuffled up all the linemen throughout the game against New Orleans they still looked worse than I expected. Savage inept, Watson making rookie mistakes throwing it up for grabs when the pocket collapsed. The INT that did occur wasn't on him (bounced off the receiver's hands), but he should have had at least 1 more. Of course only scrub WR's playing and Miller for just a token series didn't help. Need our WR's and backup RB's to get healthy to help this poor offense.
Not sure what is going on with the Duane Brown situation, he appears poised and committed to holding out for the first 8 games, which seems dumb to me considering he will be 34 after next season when his contract ends. I guess he's trying to leverage the rest of the line being terrible in the hopes the Texans cave and give him an extension now.
Jags are a dumpster fire yet again, who knows what Luck's condition is, leaving Tennessee the only competition for the conference. Personally I think they are way overrated and the whole of the AFC South is going to be embarrassing yet again. Can't wait for some more 13 to 10 defensive battles this year!
GregR
Footballguy
Getting away from the rush helps, and as big of a change is that Watson gets rid of the ball so much more quickly than Savage. There are a lot of plays he knows where to go with the ball at the snap and does so quickly, which Savage rarely seems to do.
If the OL was even average, Savage might have given the team a better chance to win even with his slow decision making. But if this O-line keeps making last year's Vikings unit look like All Pros, there's just no way I can see going with Savage. Watson is going to have a ton of variance, a bunch of give-aways on throws he should never attempt. But also more positive plays than Savage behind that bad of a line. I think they have to stick with Watson. I'd have liked to give Watson a few games holding a clipboard first to adjust, but unless the line improves drastically you can't stick with Savage if you're trying to win.
I could see Savage going somewhere else next year, holding a clipboard and staying healthy, and maybe in a couple of years speed his game clock and potentially turn into a passable starting QB. Not saying I'd bet on it, but I don't think it's unfathomable his career could go that route. He has the other tools, arm strength and accuracy. Just too slow pulling the trigger.
If the OL was even average, Savage might have given the team a better chance to win even with his slow decision making. But if this O-line keeps making last year's Vikings unit look like All Pros, there's just no way I can see going with Savage. Watson is going to have a ton of variance, a bunch of give-aways on throws he should never attempt. But also more positive plays than Savage behind that bad of a line. I think they have to stick with Watson. I'd have liked to give Watson a few games holding a clipboard first to adjust, but unless the line improves drastically you can't stick with Savage if you're trying to win.
I could see Savage going somewhere else next year, holding a clipboard and staying healthy, and maybe in a couple of years speed his game clock and potentially turn into a passable starting QB. Not saying I'd bet on it, but I don't think it's unfathomable his career could go that route. He has the other tools, arm strength and accuracy. Just too slow pulling the trigger.
dhockster
Footballguy
Reposting because I am even more frustrated with O'Brien. Absolutely atrocious offense. Offensive line is just horrible. I can't say it is all O'Brien's fault because Rick Smith has given him that line. And decided to take a firm stand on their best Olineman Duane Brown. Both of those guys need to be fired.
Polish Hammer
made of glass
So anyone that had Savage rostered as a 3rd QB can safely drop him? 
O'line was my major concern that i posted about multiple times, looks like it is indeed a total ####storm. Worst Oline performance since the Carr days. First time we've lost to the Jags in three seasons. Bob and Smith will finally be gone this year.
Do they pick Weeden back up? I cant even see Savage as a capable backup with that line. I just hope we don't ruin Watson like we did Carr. All that cap space money is going to FA linemen next season, no doubt.
Do they pick Weeden back up? I cant even see Savage as a capable backup with that line. I just hope we don't ruin Watson like we did Carr. All that cap space money is going to FA linemen next season, no doubt.
I dropped him in preseason in a couple of dynasty leagues at cutdown time, total waste of space.So anyone that had Savage rostered as a 3rd QB can safely drop him?
GregR
Footballguy
Yes, I was a bit concerned about the OL, but I just didn't think they'd be that bad. Getting Brown back would help a lot, seemed like a lot of the impactful sacks came off that side. Though the entire pocket was collapsing continually.
I can't wonder if Eric Winston or Khalif Barnes or someone like that out on the street couldn't do better than what we have right now. Assuming no one signed them.
Well. Expectations for the season have been thoroughly reset. Not that they were championship aspirations before, but still.
Watson will make the OL look much better simply because he can run away from their missed blocks. Watson may even help out Miller because he is a threat to run, which Savage is not.
When your OL sucks as bad as this one, the NYG and Seattle, you need a guy that can escape the rush. Gomer in NYG is gonna get beat up.
When your OL sucks as bad as this one, the NYG and Seattle, you need a guy that can escape the rush. Gomer in NYG is gonna get beat up.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Some talk here about the state of the Texans' O-line, but what about their D?
So we all knew Fournette was going to be good in this league, but he and the rest of the Jags offense made a consensus Top 5 D look like a sieve. Is this Week 1 jitters/rust or sign of more things to come?
I usually prefer drafting a Top 5 D (where pieces are largely still there year to year) rather than platooning as in a league with shallow benches, would rather reserve the scarce bench spot for skill position depth or lottery tickets. There is normally thrash year to year on who are the Top Ds, and there's the Any Given Sunday effect, but Ds like SEA, DEN, HOU, and KC have returned consi?tent dividends for a few years now so looked to secure one of them at the right price at the draft, then set them and forget them.
This year, that D was HOU for me, but after this shellacking, it makes me think that it's possible HOU may not be reliable, and platooning or streaming may be better.
Texan backers -- is this a one-week anomaly, or are you worried about the D's ability to step up and shine from a fantasy perspective.
So we all knew Fournette was going to be good in this league, but he and the rest of the Jags offense made a consensus Top 5 D look like a sieve. Is this Week 1 jitters/rust or sign of more things to come?
I usually prefer drafting a Top 5 D (where pieces are largely still there year to year) rather than platooning as in a league with shallow benches, would rather reserve the scarce bench spot for skill position depth or lottery tickets. There is normally thrash year to year on who are the Top Ds, and there's the Any Given Sunday effect, but Ds like SEA, DEN, HOU, and KC have returned consi?tent dividends for a few years now so looked to secure one of them at the right price at the draft, then set them and forget them.
This year, that D was HOU for me, but after this shellacking, it makes me think that it's possible HOU may not be reliable, and platooning or streaming may be better.
Texan backers -- is this a one-week anomaly, or are you worried about the D's ability to step up and shine from a fantasy perspective.
What will it take to get rid of Rick Smith? I'm to the point where I hate him. I hate that we traded away next year's 1st for Watson instead of waiting to take Kizer. I hate that we traded away next year's 2nd with Oz just to make cap room we didn't need. I hate that we drafted Foreman in the 3rd (overrated). I don't feel like Lamar Miller was a good fit for this offense. Our OL sucks. I hate that we overpaid for Hopkins - should've let him be mediocre for another year and either get him cheaper or let someone else overpay for him. I think Rick Smith has set us back to the point where I feel like our nearest realistic shot at being relevant is 2020. I mean, look at our drafts under Rick. He's awful.
Major
Footballguy
Yep. My hate for Rick Smith runs deep. I've just given up and assume he's untouchable.
Other than penalties and getting tired out from beimg constantly on the field, Defense looked fine. Jax offense scored 2 TD's, one after being gifted a short field on a Savage turnover (and being helped by 2 defensive penalties on DJ Reader) another was a good long drive but they were bailed out on 3rd and 3 with a 20 yard DPI call.
However I wouldn't touch them in fantasy until the offense shows some ability to be at least semi-competant.
BOB needs to be gone; he's not this QB guru and switching out QBs again, this time before a whole game?! So TC and preseason, Savage gets all the reps, and now Watson has to be ready in 3 days for the Thursday game? WR's are awful outside of Hopkins. Braxton looks like a bust and Fuller will not come back until later in the season. You have all 3 TE's in the concussion protocol too.
OL is so bad and they have nothing to fix it. I doubt they pay Brown what he wants and even if Brown comes back, it might be too late.
Defense: Vrabel is the DC now and his debut as the DC was not good. Xua had the same number of tackles as Watt and Clowney; that's our OL.
Rick Smith sucks and I am praying him and BOB are shown the door soon.
OL is so bad and they have nothing to fix it. I doubt they pay Brown what he wants and even if Brown comes back, it might be too late.
Defense: Vrabel is the DC now and his debut as the DC was not good. Xua had the same number of tackles as Watt and Clowney; that's our OL.
Rick Smith sucks and I am praying him and BOB are shown the door soon.
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dhockster
Footballguy
Annnnnddd.... Cushing busted for PED's - suspended 10 games. Guess he got tired of being injured all the time and decided to go back to his old ways to come back. I'm sorry I ever defended him. Writing was on the wall with the Cunningham pick this year, but he's almost certainly gone next year now which will save $8.5M.
Whoever takes over after Bob and Rick Smith won't have any picks but will have plenty of cap space to work with.
Edit: And crap, just saw Fiedorwicz was placed on IR too, another great extension Smith!
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dhockster
Footballguy
Yeah, I never quite understood why the Texans felt the need to sign him to such a big contract. At his best, he was a very good linebacker, but I don't think he was a game changer. Besides being an awful drafter, Rick Smith has also been pretty bad at managing the cap. The Texans always seem to be hamstrung in what they can do because of the cap. They just never seem to allocate their resources very well.Buckna said:
