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2021 NFL Free Agency Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
That's because there were a dozen HOFers that came out last year and another dozen on the way this year. And some folks here are saying next year's WR crop is just as good or better than this year.
If there is even a kernel of truth to the 2020-2022 quality, then there is not much reason to pay up in FA. Also, Golladay isn't that great. He is an older Corey Davis basically. I love Juju but apparently everyone else hates him, too. So who is the big prize in a down market? If the answer is nobody then that might explain a lot of this. It isn't Fuller or Samuel.
Maybe Bill doesn't give a hoot about the $ and just went after guys he thought worked in his system. IDK. Perhaps the issue is that the QB dominoes need to fall first before we see someone shell out for these couple of marginal WRs.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
That's not what I am seeing. Both OverTheCap and Spotrac have them eating $15.6M in dead cap money by cutting him.
Agreed. Rotoworld or NBC Sports Edge as it is called now, changed their blurb to include 15.6 dead.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think BB had a bad taste in his mouth from last year and TB12 winning another ring did not sit well with him. In the past, it's been said that NE has waited around too long and lost out on some players they were interested in (and there weren't comparable players available as free agents. So he basically said that won't happen again and he went on tilt and signed a boatload of guys. I think for some of the players they signed, they were bidding against themselves and / or the same player might have been available in a few weeks for less money.
I can see why they signed the top two tight ends, but I am a little surprised at what they paid for two mid tier WR ($37 million for 5 combined years of Agholor and Bourne . . . which is likely less than the numbers first reported). By trying to be teams to the punch, they likely misjudged the market some and overpaid some. (That and I think they could have gotten better WRs for that kind of money.)
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yes that seems to be the early take. But is that so bad? *If* you get your guys, and no I'm not saying I think Bourne and Agholor are as good as either Golladay or Juju but maybe Bill thinks so? If run blocking is a premise I always thought Juju was considered elite at that.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The same fine print always applies to anyone coming to NE. What and how they did elsewhere is completely irrelevant to how they will be used and what they will do in NE. Sure, it matters some in terms of what they get for a contract, but Wes Welker was mostly irrelevant in MIA, Randy Moss was on the downslope in OAK, no one had ever heard of Van Noy, etc. To be fair, they have paid some guys that didn't work out quite as planned (Adelius Thomas, several CB's, Amendola, Haynesworth off the top).
LawFitz
Footballguy
$15.6 dead, but they avoid paying him ~$14 MM this year, so net dead cap of ~$2 MM.
BUT, they could also spread the $15.6 dead across two years, if they designate this as a post-June 1 cut, which would mean ~$6 MM in freed cap this year, plus another ~$7 MM in freed cap next year.
Lastly, Mark Sanchez (FWIW, lol) is reporting that Hudson requested his release, and as a result voided $3.5 MM in guarantees for this year. If that part is also true, then it's ~$7.5 MM in freed cap this year and the same ~$8.5 MM in cap savings next year.
Still would rather keep all-pro Hudson than freed cap - look at how much Linsley got paid - but the Raiders don't do well with malcontents, so I can see how they'd grant his request and move on, in what has become nearly a complete rebuild of their Oline.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think you are laying it on a bit thick to say Moss was on the decline. He had an injury and off year with the Raiders and whoever their QB was then he got to play with Brady.
I mostly agree with everything else. They did trade a 3rd rounder for Welker IIRC.
Shawnky
Footballguy
I'm guessing they're the same type of contracts. Just like Jameis. Only his base is 5.5 compared to 10 for Fitz.fellow WFT fans, we should all feel VERY good about getting Fitzmagic at his price compared to what the Texans and Bears just spent getting Dalton and T. Taylor.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
They traded a 2nd and a 7th for Welker. Moss' previous 3 seasons before coming to NE he had 767, 1005, and 553 receiving yards. Teams were not knocking the doors down to take on Moss. Not many people saw his record breaking season coming. The point overall was that how Moss did the year before was mostly irrelevant.
I get the gist of your post is supposed to be that NE has a plan for these players to use them in a way they were not previously used but as this relates to offensive skill position players it's not encouraging to me you had to go back to 2007 for your examples.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The reason 2007 is a good baseline is their offense was awful in 2006 and they went out and made sweeping changes for 2007 and won every regular season game. I could find newer examples if you really need me to.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Per Schefter and friends . . .
Jaguars are giving former Lions' WR Marvin Jones a two-year, $14.5 million deal, including $9.2 million fully guaranteed, per source.
Former Colts' QB Jacoby Brissett has reached agreement on a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins, per source.
Titans signing former Saints’ CB Janoris Jenkins, per his agent
Jaguars are giving former Lions' WR Marvin Jones a two-year, $14.5 million deal, including $9.2 million fully guaranteed, per source.
Former Colts' QB Jacoby Brissett has reached agreement on a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins, per source.
Titans signing former Saints’ CB Janoris Jenkins, per his agent
zamboni
Footballguy
Looks like Trevor has some decent receiving options with Chark, Shenault, Cole and now Jones. And not too long ago, Westbrook was a thing.
Chark and Shenault dodged a bullet IMO. Jags could have made a much bigger splash at WR. Some short-term impact in 2021 with Marvin bring the possession guy, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marvin cut this time next year.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Speaking of Mariota, anybody heard anything?
Nothing yet, one Raider beat writer wrote yesterday the plan is to try and hold onto him as long as possible and when dust settles pursue team shut out of QB market as trade partner or use lack of open QB spots as leverage to get Mariotta to take a pay cut. Another beat writer said today the market is shrinking for him since WFT and Chicago acquired stopgaps, Houston as well should Watson bail.
But none of the Raiders beat writers I check in on are reporting anything is in the works or imminent.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah he might have missed his window if he had one.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That's weird
Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
Former Chargers' QB Tyrod Taylor reached agreement on a one-year deal worth up to $12.5 million with the Houston Texans, sources tell ESPN.
4:06 PM · Mar 16, 2021
jtd13
Footballguy
Eesh. Wasn't it the escalators in his contract that turned everyone off? I feel like best for everyone would have been his agent making it known he'd re do his deal upon a trade.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm a salty hater, so you could say I think you're right because of that, but I think as pure football moves they were questionable, especially at those prices. Agholor -- and I watched nearly every game of his last year -- was better than people think, though. It's just hard to imagine seeing Hoodie pay for a guy on a prove-it year who somewhat proved it, but has a history of being subpar.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
All of the players Hoodie signed are ascending, including Agholor. He paid top-dollar for all of them, but I suspect if looked at closely, the contracts provide wiggle in a year or two for all but a couple of them. They have major cap space now and they are reloading in a way that for most teams would be a recipe for underperformance, but would it shock you to see more than half of these players outperform these 'top-dollar' deals in NE? If that's the ~hit rate, and they can exit the contracts in a year or two for any laggards, then this will have been a tremendous offseason for a deeply depleted team. Big Belly has time and again made contrarian moves and come up aces. Touchdown Tommy obviously notwithstanding. We'll see, but I'm not about to write off the Hooded one at all based on this free agency splurge. He's earned the doubt benefit.
rockaction
Footballguy
Algholor has been a negative DYAR guy for five out the six years he's been in the league. When Aaron Schatz questions the signing, it brings a little to bear.
The Hoodie has not had boffo drafts nor has he evaluated players very well lately, and by lately, I mean at least the past five years. The reason they're so bereft on offense is because of numerous terrible draft picks on that side of the ball. The entire draft philosophy doesn't seem to be working for them. If anything, this should be Hoodie's last crack at controlling player personnel, not one that deserves benefits of the doubt.
LawFitz
Footballguy
If this FA class flops, then yeah, it's time to truly question Hoodie & Co. Their six championships and two-decade track record of consistent championship competitiveness trumps your five-year run of unimpressive drafts IMO. Last season, Covid dropouts and the hubristic lack of faith in TB12 did them in. Don't forget how dominant their D was just one year prior - for the umpteenth time in the Hoodie era.
As for Football Outsiders, their system is interesting, and I won't speak to whether or not it's valuable - certainly seems highly subjective in construction. What was Agholor's DYAR last year in a part-time role with the Raiders? Was it the one year in the black? How'd he rank across the league last year in that stat? These aren't gotcha questions - I truly don't know and am curious.
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree with the part about Hoodie, especially his ability to construct a defense. He deserves a lot of leeway for that.
As far as Football Outsiders, Agholor was 10th overall in DYAR last year among full-time guys. Full-time guys are guys with a minimum of fifty passes thrown their way. He's finished negatively every other year. So last year is a bit of an outlier for him, but that may be because he is indeed ascending. As far as their individual evaluation system goes, I don't put a ton of stock in it, to answer your question. It's just that when the proprietor of that site says something negative in a Tweet -- and he usually doesn't speak too negatively -- I take notice.
On a different note, I do trust FO's DVOA statistic for overall team evaluation, both offense and defense. That's where I've found FO really helpful in fantasy. You can always pick a very solid redraft defense (if you're more of a points-based D/ST league like mine usually are) mid to late-year by looking at their rankings (this is if your league plays with D/ST and not IDP).
I find the twitter/dynasty community’s reaction to the Fitz signing fascinating.fellow WFT fans, we should all feel VERY good about getting Fitzmagic at his price compared to what the Texans and Bears just spent getting Dalton and T. Taylor.
Here is a guy who is universally LOVED. No one has a bad word to say about him. He’s a meme, a myth, a legend etc. I get it - he has the beard, the IDGAF attitude on the field and off, he seems like a great dude. That’s all great.
He likes to sling the ball around and that can be great for fantasy. It has been very good from time to time for certain WRs. But ultimately isn’t he a pretty average QB on the verge of retirement? He’ll likely put up some decent stats and have a few shocking duds that make you wonder why a team is paying him to start. He’s always been good enough to stay in the league and compete well if starting, but not good enough for any team to commit to him for more than a year or two (is this his 9th team?!). That’s what he is.
Yet the reaction to this is universally positive: great signing, stock to the moon for McLaurin etc. This is both from a fantasy perspective (which is more understandable) and real NFL. People reacting like they just signed prime Brady.
I’m not saying that it’s a bad signing, it’s not. But as a QB, is he really any better than/different to Dalton, Gardner Minshew or Foles, or [insert average QB here]? If those guys signed with the WFT, the fans would riot (see Bears) and it definitely wouldn’t be stock up for anyone. Is it just that he’s FUN and we want to have fun? I’m just interested in the perception/idea of Fitz and how he’s come to be so universally adored, when most journeyman QBs either get a shoulder shrug from fans or outright hostility.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Oh, that he's easy and compelling to root for is a big, big part of it. But it's also because Fitz flashes greatness at times and can get so hot you swear he's a nuclear plant. He makes huge plays and puts his tail on the line. The rest of the guys you just listed besides Minshew (who had trouble throwing the ball last year) are checkdown artists, inaccurate passers, and spiritual con men masquerading as starters. (Like how that got ugly quick? Spiritual con men?)
Oh, and a lot of the writers celebrating the move are probably thinking fantasy, because that's all everybody wants to hear about anymore and it colors their football analysis at times. They're trying to be good guys and affable when they relate to the average fan and the fantasy impact of things while also being objective about pure football, but don't think for a moment they don't feel the fantasy angle creeping into their coverage of things. It's that big.
Oh, and a lot of the writers celebrating the move are probably thinking fantasy, because that's all everybody wants to hear about anymore and it colors their football analysis at times. They're trying to be good guys and affable when they relate to the average fan and the fantasy impact of things while also being objective about pure football, but don't think for a moment they don't feel the fantasy angle creeping into their coverage of things. It's that big.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
I'd have to go back and look (I won't), but my perpetual impression of Fitzmagic is that he's a prince early in the season when the weather is good, and always turns into a pumpkin when the weather turns and it truly counts. G/L, Deadskins.
NightStalkers
Footballguy
The thing you are missing is that all last year WFT had pumpkins at QB period. Smith for all his guts is completely immobile. Haskins was a complete mess. Would it be great to get Watson? Sure. But is Texans going to deal with teams likely to have top picks or a team that is on the rise? Especially if they got Watson... Fitz is not mahomes but he is better than anyone from last year and they have no long term committment and have plenty of cap space in the coming years.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Jamaal Williams agrees on 2 year deal from Detroit
