How do we align the findings on this thread, with the results across this season ? Do the initial findings show us potential buy low situations going into the off season, or do the results conversely show where the initial findings failed ? Or is it neither really, the findings are accurate but you cant account for the individual situations that all these players find themselves in ? Appreciate the work, just wondering if we can exploit it in any way - what percentage of players that succeeded AND also fell under the + system here, broke out after a quiet first season ?
The caveats section should include my personal thoughts on this, and I didn't add it this year. I wanted the list to stand alone apart from what I believe it offers for predictive ability. That said, I freely admit that there are many ways to win as a receiver in the NFL. Players who can positively be identified as superior route runners offer one additional toolset in that arsenal. But it's OBVIOUSLY not the only one and probably not the most important one for most players.
When everyone is on the rooftop shouting that so and so is a Surefire Can't Miss Blockbuster A1 Talent at receiver, listen to them. They are saying it for a reason. Whether or not this particular player is good at route running is irrelevant (I have learned!).
The advantage I've taken from this list is once you get past those first couple of guys, you need a way to choose between WRs who are still considered 1st round rookie picks. -Something- has to help sort them out and this is my tool for that. I was pretty high on Olave this year and took him as high as 1.04. Time will tell on that one.
Here's the current list of top 10 rookie WRs by dynasty value at KTC.
1 - Garrett Wilson
2 - Chris Olave
3 - Drake London
4 - Jameson Williams
5 - Christian Watson
6 - George Pickens
7 - Treylon Burks
8 - Jahan Dotson
9 - Wan'Dale Robinson
10 - Romeo Doubs
I certainly would not have recommended anyone take David Bell with a high rookie pick even though my system showed him as potentially very good. You still have to merge this information with ADP and the smell test.
