Every preseason preview for the team is going to talk about how they were unusually healthy last year and that we should expect regression on that front and thus in the win totals. There's truth to that (though Sabonis played half the year with a bad thumb). I think they'll get offsetting internal improvement, mainly through Murray but also Mitchell, and Duarte will be a two-way upgrade on Terrance Davis. Vezenkov also gives them more front court depth. So my entirely biased opinion is that the number is too low, but it's not so low that I'd be running out and putting the mortgage on it like I was last year.
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2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Message board poster furiously types out one more horrible post before thread closes (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Capella
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I'll take Suns under. 1 injury to "Big 3" and it's easy to see them as a .500 team. They've got zero room for error.
Payne's fine for a backup PG. Really think they got to find a starting one and not relying on Booker to be it. They've done fine in free agency getting a bunch of min complimentary pieces....PG is the spot theyve got to find an additional option.
Payne's fine for a backup PG. Really think they got to find a starting one and not relying on Booker to be it. They've done fine in free agency getting a bunch of min complimentary pieces....PG is the spot theyve got to find an additional option.
Kev4029
Footballguy
Last year's Pythagorean win totals added in parentheses.
I would go under on Nuggets and Suns - they are both thinner than last year and are aiming for playoff success rather than regular season.
Over on the Kings, sure they were healthy last year, but I think they good vibes continue.
Very light under on Warriors and Lakers. They're old and won't have the ability to push for 50 wins, I don't think.
Over on the Grizz, I think they'll weather the storm without Morant and otherwise should be slightly improved.
Over on the Mavs, they filled some of their late season holes, and they should have the Kyrie-Doncic thing figured out a little more.
Over on the Wolves - I think it's a fair line if they stay pat, but if they can trade KAT for better fitting pieces, they'll be better.
Light under on Rockets and Spurs - I'm skeptical of Wemby being good enough offensively this year, and I still think the Rockets kinda suck.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
I'm not twitter.
trader jake
Footballguy
Chet's stats looked good, but it had more to do with the Pacers switching on all screens and him getting guards in the paint most of the night. Love Chet'e game though, he doesn't back down from anything.
The similarities between Chet and Wemby are there, but Wemby is just a different dude. Betting against Wemby to win rookie of the year seems like a bet against his health. Better to go under the Spurs win total of that's the thought process.
The real challenge for the RoY award is Scoot. He's the closest prospect I've seen to Russell Westbrook coming out of college, and he'll have the ball in his hands a lot in Portland (assuming Lillard gets moved).
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Likely excuse.
Major
Footballguy
That does seem like a good bet although I may have to bet the farm on Houston. They're getting at least 35-40 this year. Their bench is deep and I figure Smith and Sengun will be taking big steps.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I don't know how anyone can be confident in the west. There are probably going to be 3 or 4 teams they surprise us and 3 or 4 that disappoint.
Everyone after the Nuggets in the west could legit miss the playoffs and everyone above the Rockets and including the Clippers could make the playoffs if things break right.
Major
Footballguy
You're not wrong. After looking over every team it's amazing how stacked the West is. I do think 32 wins is a low bar for a team that is vastly improved and been in tank mode the past few years. This year they have no incentives to lose with their pick likely going to OKC. Could also be overly optimistic homerism so take it with a grain of salt.
Moe.
Footballguy
I'm with ya, but when I say he looked incredible I don't mean he had a good statline. Some dude on the Thunder shot the ball 18 times, I don't think you can read too much into Summer League numbers. I do think Chet will have an efficient year on offense but he won't be expected to do a ton there really. If he is dribbling much at all in year 1 it's going to go poorly for him I think. If he ends up with a credible ROY case it'll be because the Thunder are a playoff team and he's the anchor on defense. If I were to focus on a stat from last night it'd be the 5 blocks for sure, I think that matters way more to the Thunder this year.
Does the 65 game minimum apply to ROY as well? I had assumed it would, but now that I am actually looking into it I'm not so sure. I hope Wembenyama stays healthy, but the thinking is the Spurs won't play him 65 times regardless. I do think the year of being in the program is huge for Chet, but obviously the oddsmakers know all that crap. I don't know anything about Scoot, but his odds are right around +400 as well, so what you say makes a lot of sense.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
There’s at least some chance that the spurs will manage Wembys minutes very carefully. He still might have enough impact to win ROY, but I don’t think he has to get hurt to not put up the gaudy stats
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I think the minimum applies to ROY, which kind of sucks, IMO
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
This lull is boring. Any real trade rumors?
identikit
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
i would suspect he just needed to take a break (a real break) and just focus on being ready for next season.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Sabrina Ionescu in the WNBA 3-pt contest. My god. She missed 2 shots. We need a WNBA thread. Hell, SHE needs a thread.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Yeah that was crazy. And one of her misses was the very first one, so she made 25 of the next 26 shots (including 19 in a row).
Bummer they’re doing this at 2pm on a Friday.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
It's awesome. I'm kinda surprised nobody has made all of them though. We know many of them can in practice. Heck Gilbert Arenas made 95/100 against Nick Young to win $100k in practice. Also made 73/100 one handed in practice to win $20k from Stevenson. And there are far far better shooters in the NBA than Arenas.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Like Ja Morant?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Best ever in the NBA contest was Craig Hodges with 21/25.
The format and time constraint (let alone additional pressure) make the 3 point contests more difficult than shooting in rhythm with someone feeding you passes in practice.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Some really impressive women's bball players of late.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
I think Detroit did a great job hiring Monty Williams. ...watching SL ball. Shoot me.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
So it seems we’re not too far away from NBA expansion, with Vegas and Seattle as the front runners.
So it got me thinking, how exactly would an expansion draft work in today’s NBA? In the previous times of expansion, there wasn’t nearly as much player movement and more longer contracts than what we have today.
Let’s say there is an expansion draft in a couple years and a team like the Lakers post-LeBron only has something like five players under contract and a bunch of either RFAs or UFAs with Bird Rights? Who gets protected and who is available for the expansion draft.
Also, timing could be tricky. Do you do an expansion draft after free agency so teams can sort out the FA decisions noted above? If it’s after that the expansion teams potentially miss out on the top FAs and also miss out on the rookie draft. If you do the expansion draft before, what do you do with all the players not yet under contract?
Lastly, does Detroit protect all five centers on their roster from the expansion draft or just four?
Anyway, I think of weird things some times but it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
So it got me thinking, how exactly would an expansion draft work in today’s NBA? In the previous times of expansion, there wasn’t nearly as much player movement and more longer contracts than what we have today.
Let’s say there is an expansion draft in a couple years and a team like the Lakers post-LeBron only has something like five players under contract and a bunch of either RFAs or UFAs with Bird Rights? Who gets protected and who is available for the expansion draft.
Also, timing could be tricky. Do you do an expansion draft after free agency so teams can sort out the FA decisions noted above? If it’s after that the expansion teams potentially miss out on the top FAs and also miss out on the rookie draft. If you do the expansion draft before, what do you do with all the players not yet under contract?
Lastly, does Detroit protect all five centers on their roster from the expansion draft or just four?
Anyway, I think of weird things some times but it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
When the Wolves (and Magic) joined the league in 1989 each team was allowed to protect 8 players. The early picks for each team were vets (Rick mahorn, Ty Corbin, Reggie Theus) while the later rounds were younger guys (David Rivers, Scott Skiles, Brad Lohaus). Basically it was really, really, really terrible. Skiles was the best player in the draft and it wasn't particlularly close (Theus had the best career, but was old and only played 1 year for the Magic, then one more year, then retired). The second best was probably Tyrone Corbin.
10 of othe 23 picks never played for their expansion team, most notably Rick Mahorn who the wolves took at #2 and "refused to report to the team" and was traded for a 1st rounder that became Gerald Glass. Only two players selected played more than 3 seaosns for the Magic, while only Corbin played more than 1 season for the Wolves (2.5 seaons).
It would definiltey be more interesting now with the contracts the way they are. Teams could throw out negative value contracts and hope they got drafted
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If the rules are still the same, the way it was 20 years ago for Charlotte, teams could protect up to 8 players, and if they did not have many players under contract, they still had to designate at least only player as an eligible player to the incoming team(s).
The expansion draft was conducted prior to the regular NBA draft.
The expansion draft was conducted prior to the regular NBA draft.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
1995 Grizzlies/Raptors draft also had each team protect 8 players. The first two picks were 6-year vet BJ Armstong and 4-year Greg Anthony and then either garbage or old dudes (12th year Byron Scott was an interesting pick).
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Just looking at the wolves if they did 8 players again they would probably offer up:
Troy Brown Jr
Luka Garza
Nathan Knight
Shake Milton
Wendell Moore
Jaylen Nowell
Austin Rivers
Matt Ryan
Assuming all the others team have about the same, that's rough.
Troy Brown Jr
Luka Garza
Nathan Knight
Shake Milton
Wendell Moore
Jaylen Nowell
Austin Rivers
Matt Ryan
Assuming all the others team have about the same, that's rough.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Interesting, so could the Lakers have protected Reaves from the expansion draft even though he was a RFA if the rules were the same?
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Yeah, I loved following these drafts. Loved the players the Heat took in their expansion draft too.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Never mind. I just looked up the expansion draft for the Heat. It was horrible. But they did a bunch of “trades” to agree not to take certain players and got a bunch of draft picks that they used to draft the guys that I liked. The Hornets did well though getting Curry, Bogues, Ricky Green, and someone they traded for Tripuca.
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
The Bulls were granted a 10 million disability exemption for Lonzo Ball (he is presumed to miss the entire 23-24 season). It is technically 10 million, but since the Bulls are 8 million under the cap, and Jerry Reinsdorf is pathologically averse to paying the luxury tax, that means the exemption is worth only 8 million.
Bulls fans are clamoring for Christian Wood, who seems to have miscalculated his worth on the FA market. But the exemption is only valid for one year, and the question is whether Wood is willing to accept a one year deal. Maybe he would as a sort of "prove it" contract, and re-establish himself next year for a big payday.
Bulls fans are clamoring for Christian Wood, who seems to have miscalculated his worth on the FA market. But the exemption is only valid for one year, and the question is whether Wood is willing to accept a one year deal. Maybe he would as a sort of "prove it" contract, and re-establish himself next year for a big payday.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
LOL
Pre-draft trades
Prior to the day of the draft, the following trades were made and resulted in exchanges of future draft picks between the teams, along with a particular agreement in the expansion draft.- A The Miami Heat agreed not to select Bill Wennington, Uwe Blab or Steve Alford from the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for a 1988 first-round pick.[32][33] Because the Mavericks had already protected eight of their twelve players in their roster, the only available player for selection was Arvid Kramer.
- B The Miami Heat agreed not to select Kareem Abdul-Jabbar from the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for a 1992 second-round pick.[33][34]
- C The Miami Heat agreed not to select Dennis Johnson from the Boston Celtics in exchange for a 1988 second-round pick.[33][35]
- D The Miami Heat agreed not to select Danny Young from the Seattle SuperSonics in exchange for a 1988 second-round pick.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
I don’t think they’ll use it unless they are surprisingly good this year and want to add a player at the trade deadline.
I don’t blame ownership for not going into the tax with a mediocre team. One player on a one-year $10 million contract won’t make much of a difference.
identikit
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
If we have expansion soon, I think they should change the protections to 6 or 7 players per team. They should also give the expansion teams extra picks at the end of each round.
To answer the Pistons questions, yes they would protect all the big man and probably try to trade for another one, after the new team drafted one.
Can't believe Weaver is building a team like it is 1986.
To answer the Pistons questions, yes they would protect all the big man and probably try to trade for another one, after the new team drafted one.
Can't believe Weaver is building a team like it is 1986.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
They should just dump the expansion draft altogether. Give the teams extra cap space and multiple extra draft picks for a couple years. Learn from the mistakes of the past.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
It’s perfectly conceivable for Vegas to sign a super team without an expansion draft.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Which team would move to the East? Memphis?
Capella
Footballguy
And New Orleans
trader jake
Footballguy
Minnesota?
the moops
Footballguy
I hope they eliminate divisions and just go with conferences.
Move MEM and MIN to the east. Or MEM and NOP.
Yep. The Kings had to leave Gerald Wallace available in the Hornets/Bobcats expansion draft available because they had so many free agents that year. I’m still bitter.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Divisions are definitely dumb
They only need to move one city to the east, not two
Minneapolis is west of both Memphis and NOLA.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I’m watching a replay of the detroit summer league game.
At least there was a great exchange between Jefferson and schiffren discussing dumbbell handle “girth” and being unable to hold it together and the sideline reporter having to jump in and save them.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Entertaining myself with the Reign of Error podcast today about the worst owner in American sports.
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