2023 College football thread - That's A Wrap (3 Viewers)

[Capella]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

 

[-OZ-]

BCS rankings
I think this would have been a little less controversial, and at least it's not based on TV ratings.

FWIW...what it'd look like if next year's rules were applied this year:

College Football Playoff: What a 12-team postseason would have looked like in 2023

The expanded playoff is just a year away, but it would have been nice to have this season.

sports.yahoo.com

Missouri is the one that would draw the most eyerolls. Why not SMU over them.

Yeah their ranking is a complete joke. It's also not like they are keeping an undefeated major conference champ out.

It’s going to be fun listening to complaints when 2/3 of the playoff teams are consistently from the SEC and B1G.

 

[-OZ-]

And FSU gets beat bad by UGA.

Conversely what if FSU beats UGA?

Honestly? Many will say Georgia didn’t care about the game. Others will say it proves FSU should have made the playoffs.

 

[-OZ-]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Drew Weatherford stating “For me, it’s not if we leave [the ACC], it’s how and when.”
That’s from August, it’s been a thing for a long time.

Interesting note: Next year, FSU, Notre Dame, Miami, and Clemson will be the only schools to have won multiple national championships since World War II to play outside of the SEC or Big Ten.

 

[tri-man 47]

What if Alabama, Texas, and FSU all win? FSU will be the only undefeated team. Who’s #1?

 

[-OZ-]

What if Alabama, Texas, and FSU all win? FSU will be the only undefeated team. Who’s #1?

Won’t matter until Texas plays Alabama.

 

[The Commish]

I wonder how many people will keep talking about how wrong it was if Alabama wins both games. And FSU gets beat bad by UGA.

I'd think many would. I don't really see what future results have to do with past decisions...MMQB at best

 

[Tom Servo]

What if Alabama, Texas, and FSU all win? FSU will be the only undefeated team. Who’s #1?

Central Florida...DUH!

 

[Capella]

And FSU gets beat bad by UGA.

Conversely what if FSU beats UGA?

Honestly? Many will say Georgia didn’t care about the game. Others will say it proves FSU should have made the playoffs.

Yup. No-win scenario for fsu. Great system.

 

[gump]

TOP 50 viewed game of the year

 

[gump]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

I don’t think anything changed on Sun vs last week on this topic…although I was told it was going to be a unique move, which I took to mean a multi-conference possibility. Not clear though.

 

[Peak]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

FSU and UNC to the B1G

 

[-OZ-]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

FSU and UNC to the B1G

Why UNC over Clemson?

Really though, it seems the NCAA should just divide the US at the Mason Dixon line, go west from Missouri. North vs south.
Of course that would mean USC and UCLA go SEC.

 

[Peak]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

FSU and UNC to the B1G

Why UNC over Clemson?

Really though, it seems the NCAA should just divide the US at the Mason Dixon line, go west from Missouri. North vs south.
Of course that would mean USC and UCLA go SEC.

FOX initially approved budgeting to add 2 ACC teams to the B1G. One of those is FSU. It was stated that FOX has approval from the B1G Presidents to also include UNC. B1G schools have to also be a major research university with large financial endowments. I think there is a short list of schools that would meet the B1G "standards" or "requirements" to join. One of which is UNC, which has already been approved by B1G Presidents and FOX. I'm not sure where Clemson falls on that list, but I haven't seen their name mentioned in the discussions.

 

[Beef Ravioli Part 2]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Any smoke of where they land? With the college football playoffs changing next year, I wonder if it’s a bad move for FSU to leave? It does nothing to help them this year. The hurdle of being the conference champ of a “lesser conference” shouldn’t be an issue to be in the top 12 teams next year. How much money is it going to cost them? Is it really worth it? It could have helped them this year but I wonder if it will moving forward?

 

[CletiusMaximus]

What if Alabama, Texas, and FSU all win? FSU will be the only undefeated team. Who’s #1?

My dream scenario. Make it so!

 

[-OZ-]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

FSU and UNC to the B1G

Why UNC over Clemson?

Really though, it seems the NCAA should just divide the US at the Mason Dixon line, go west from Missouri. North vs south.
Of course that would mean USC and UCLA go SEC.

FOX initially approved budgeting to add 2 ACC teams to the B1G. One of those is FSU. It was stated that FOX has approval from the B1G Presidents to also include UNC. B1G schools have to also be a major research university with large financial endowments. I think there is a short list of schools that would meet the B1G "standards" or "requirements" to join. One of which is UNC, which has already been approved by B1G Presidents and FOX. I'm not sure where Clemson falls on that list, but I haven't seen their name mentioned in the discussions.

Clemson is a “R1: Doctoral Universities – Very high research activity" in the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education.

Eta- I suppose they might not meet all criteria but it sure seems they would. Clemson might just prefer to join their rival in the SEC. Which could easily be their next step.

 

[Peak]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

FSU and UNC to the B1G

Why UNC over Clemson?

Really though, it seems the NCAA should just divide the US at the Mason Dixon line, go west from Missouri. North vs south.
Of course that would mean USC and UCLA go SEC.

FOX initially approved budgeting to add 2 ACC teams to the B1G. One of those is FSU. It was stated that FOX has approval from the B1G Presidents to also include UNC. B1G schools have to also be a major research university with large financial endowments. I think there is a short list of schools that would meet the B1G "standards" or "requirements" to join. One of which is UNC, which has already been approved by B1G Presidents and FOX. I'm not sure where Clemson falls on that list, but I haven't seen their name mentioned in the discussions.

Clemson is a “R1: Doctoral Universities – Very high research activity" in the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education.

I think the other parameter is being an AAU approved school. Miami is an AAU school, and was mentioined as another ACC school tied to B1G expansion. I don't believe Clemson is, but I don't think FSU is either. I think all of the B1G schools are AAU schools, except Nebraska which lost it's accreditation in the last couple of years.

I think Clemson would be a good add, but I see them fitting into the SEC more than the B1G. I just haven't heard/read anything on them joining. The latest rumors I've seen is FSU and UNC, with Miami being next in line if UNC says no. But B1G and FOX has approved bringing on FSU and UNC already. It's a big game of follow the money.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Thread title

 

[The Commish]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

 

[Peak]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

So he has to agree to stay through all of the pain and torture from the Sign Scandal and NCAA punishment? Ono telling him to live in the bed he made if he wants the money.

 

[General Malaise]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

So he has to agree to stay through all of the pain and torture from the Sign Scandal and NCAA punishment? Ono telling him to live in the bed he made if he wants the money.

He should just bolt for the Patriots. The NFL doesn't care when they cheat....

 

[Brunell4MVP]

The next step is how the ACC breaks apart.

It's pretty easy to take all the Florida, Georgia, Carolina, and Virginia schools and drop them into the SEC. UVA, Duke, WF and GT are gonna be like the Vandys of the SEC and have no shot at football, but will better the conference in many other ways. The are all super solid academically and for non-revenue sports. VT brings in the NoVA/DC market where like 40% of VT students are from. 6th biggest market in the US. They get all of NC and SC. FSU and Miami give them control of all of Florida. And it makes sense geographically. Then go to 2 larger SEC divisions.

The question is how to make it work given the ACC buyout clause.

B10 will take the leftovers if they want them and can get beyond the research u thing (BC, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, Stanford, UC-B, SMU). I assume some may get dropped.

 

[Beef Ravioli Part 2]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

 

[whoknew]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

Why do you think the offer will be pulled?

 

[Peak]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

Why do you think the offer will be pulled?

My thought is that it won't get pulled, but there is likely a clause in it that would allow the school to fire him with cause after the dust settles from the NCAA. I'd have to think there would be a show clause coming from NCAA as well. So does Harbaugh want to stick around for all of the fallout or take off for the NFL ala Pete Carroll?

I'm not sure he signs it. I also think the school releasing this in the news is to help keep the optics up for recruiting and portal candidates. It lets them know the school stands with him and that they want him to stick around. So the ball is in his court to decide his fate vs the school having to do it later.

 

[Beef Ravioli Part 2]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

Why do you think the offer will be pulled?

I don’t necessarily think that it is going to be pulled but if the cheating accusations prove to be true and sanctions are placed against the team and/or the university, I would not be surprised if the offer is pulled.

 

[whoknew]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

Why do you think the offer will be pulled?

My thought is that it won't get pulled, but there is likely a clause in it that would allow the school to fire him with cause after the dust settles from the NCAA. I'd have to think there would be a show clause coming from NCAA as well. So does Harbaugh want to stick around for all of the fallout or take off for the NFL ala Pete Carroll?

I'm not sure he signs it. I also think the school releasing this in the news is to help keep the optics up for recruiting and portal candidates. It lets them know the school stands with him and that they want him to stick around. So the ball is in his court to decide his fate vs the school having to do it later.

Well I think there is about a 0-1% chance he gets a show cause. At the very, very most, he gets a 1 game suspension.

So I guess we just fundamentally disagree.

 

[whoknew]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

Why do you think the offer will be pulled?

I don’t necessarily think that it is going to be pulled but if the cheating accusations prove to be true and sanctions are placed against the team and/or the university, I would not be surprised if the offer is pulled.

Yea I doubt there is much more coming from the NCAA. But , as Peak wrote, if there is, I'm sure there is a way to void or terminate the contract.

 

[Beef Ravioli Part 2]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

Why do you think the offer will be pulled?

I don’t necessarily think that it is going to be pulled but if the cheating accusations prove to be true and sanctions are placed against the team and/or the university, I would not be surprised if the offer is pulled.

Yea I doubt there is much more coming from the NCAA. But , as Peak wrote, if there is, I'm sure there is a way to void or terminate the contract.

“Much more from the NCAA” Has the NCAA done anything yet?

 

[whoknew]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

Why do you think the offer will be pulled?

I don’t necessarily think that it is going to be pulled but if the cheating accusations prove to be true and sanctions are placed against the team and/or the university, I would not be surprised if the offer is pulled.

Yea I doubt there is much more coming from the NCAA. But , as Peak wrote, if there is, I'm sure there is a way to void or terminate the contract.

“Much more from the NCAA” Has the NCAA done anything yet?

No. But surely they will take into account time served.

 

[The Commish]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

I have no idea...don't really care. I don't think the university has a very high opinion of the NCAA either, so I'm not sure that would be a factor for the university. We already know the conference looked at the evidence and decided (under pressure) to suspend him for three game days. That kinda doesn't match all the nonsense that was spewed out there concerning "seriousness of offense" and/or "sportsmanship" when people were speculating what the punishment would be. Michigan lost all their footing for "irreparable harm" when they ran the ball down PSU's throat, so it's rather easy to see why they pulled their RO.

I'd probably lean towards him staying but if they win it all, likelihood of him leaving. I think there's a part of him who likes screwing with the NCAA.

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Good luck with beating the ACC Grant of Rights in court or agreeing to live with those terms to go elsewhere. Plus, they have to have a suitor conference unless they want to go back to being independent. What conference is ready to make room for them and add another share to their revenue splits?

 

[Tau837]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

FSU and UNC to the B1G

Why UNC over Clemson?

Really though, it seems the NCAA should just divide the US at the Mason Dixon line, go west from Missouri. North vs south.
Of course that would mean USC and UCLA go SEC.

FOX initially approved budgeting to add 2 ACC teams to the B1G. One of those is FSU. It was stated that FOX has approval from the B1G Presidents to also include UNC. B1G schools have to also be a major research university with large financial endowments. I think there is a short list of schools that would meet the B1G "standards" or "requirements" to join. One of which is UNC, which has already been approved by B1G Presidents and FOX. I'm not sure where Clemson falls on that list, but I haven't seen their name mentioned in the discussions.

Clemson is a “R1: Doctoral Universities – Very high research activity" in the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education.

I think the other parameter is being an AAU approved school. Miami is an AAU school, and was mentioined as another ACC school tied to B1G expansion. I don't believe Clemson is, but I don't think FSU is either. I think all of the B1G schools are AAU schools, except Nebraska which lost it's accreditation in the last couple of years.

I think Clemson would be a good add, but I see them fitting into the SEC more than the B1G. I just haven't heard/read anything on them joining. The latest rumors I've seen is FSU and UNC, with Miami being next in line if UNC says no. But B1G and FOX has approved bringing on FSU and UNC already. It's a big game of follow the money.

Agree on AAU. I don't think FSU or Clemson would be attractive to B1G because of that.

I don't see why exactly the SEC would want FSU or Clemson, either. They already own the region these universities are in for college football. Would they gain TV/media revenue by adding those universities? Why would the media companies renegotiate to higher payments in this climate?

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

 

[The Commish]

Michigan will be going for its 9th Rose Bowl win…which would tie for 1st all-time with OSU.

Alabama will be going for its 6th (not counting the BCS ‘09 win over Texas)….which would tie them for 4th all-time. The Rose is a big part of Bama history, including being a part of its fight song.

B-2 bomber will be doing the flyover. Doesn't have the panache of the P8 Poseidon spy plane that flew over the Michigan vs OSU game, but it will be pretty sweet.

 

[The Commish]

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

I suspect if either the SEC or the B1G wants FSU, money won't get in the way. FSU has relatively good research facilities as well. They can get their accreditation if they wanted, but I doubt the B1G would let that be a blocker either....they let Nebraska in without it.

 

[Tau837]

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

I suspect if either the SEC or the B1G wants FSU, money won't get in the way. FSU has relatively good research facilities as well. They can get their accreditation if they wanted, but I doubt the B1G would let that be a blocker either....they let Nebraska in without it.

I assume you are aware that the ACC Grant of Rights means the ACC has all media rights for all member universities through 2036, right?

So say FSU moves to the SEC. They start getting a SEC payout share. But the SEC cannot renegotiate their media deals for FSU for 13 years. Why would the SEC accept this? And if FSU isn't getting an SEC payout, and also not getting an ACC payout, why would FSU do this? The obvious answer is that it would require FSU to defeat the ACC GOR in court. And that's what it comes down to... can they?

Also, re: Nebraska, I thought Nebraska had AAU when B1G agreed to take them, but later lost it. Is that incorrect? I thought there was no precedent of B1G expanding with non-AAU universities.

 

[Peak]

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

I suspect if either the SEC or the B1G wants FSU, money won't get in the way. FSU has relatively good research facilities as well. They can get their accreditation if they wanted, but I doubt the B1G would let that be a blocker either....they let Nebraska in without it.

I assume you are aware that the ACC Grant of Rights means the ACC has all media rights for all member universities through 2036, right?

So say FSU moves to the SEC. They start getting a SEC payout share. But the SEC cannot renegotiate their media deals for FSU for 13 years. Why would the SEC accept this? And if FSU isn't getting an SEC payout, and also not getting an ACC payout, why would FSU do this? The obvious answer is that it would require FSU to defeat the ACC GOR in court. And that's what it comes down to... can they?

Also, re: Nebraska, I thought Nebraska had AAU when B1G agreed to take them, but later lost it. Is that incorrect? I thought there was no precedent of B1G expanding with non-AAU universities.

Someone smarter than me already started this conversation. He's been posting this info on X. Good follow for B1G info. He's already noted that with FOX having media rights with B1G, they have worked with the conference presidents to accept FSU and UNC into the B1G. With the idea of a two conference system starting to appear, the AAU clause may become a nice to have and not a hard requirement. As with Nebraska, I believe they lost their accreditation after joining the B1G.

The consensus is that Florida State needs leave the ACC. So, how can this work financially? That is one of the biggest questions and challenges involved in all of this.

This information has been reviewed by professionals.

The ACC bylaws are clear around the exit fee. That is an easy calculation to do. However, with the addition of SMU, Stanford, and California to the ACC, the payout value will change in coming academic year. But, with an announcment pending soon (more info coming in the coming days on this), the calculation would be based on the revenue numbers of the last tax submissions. That value is below $200M.

Make sure not to confuse a GOR buyout with the exit fee. They are not one and the same. Separate contracts.

I have to keep some information confidential as it can't be released in my tweet, but a loan from a source can be and likely will be used. Yes, it is true that money is there for Florida State to use on a buyout.

It is not unusual for the Big Ten to loan money to a new conference member. It is highly likely () that will be used here as well.

Depending on the value of a negotatiined exit fee, and the loan value given to Florida State, Florida State can make a move to the Big Ten work financially.

Static revenue would be in place from the media payouts. Revenue that is not static can fluctutate academic year to acdemic year but can be projectd. Those projections have been evaluated by network professionals.

With Florida State having approval for pro rata payouts as a Big Ten member, we can calucate what the new revenue that is avaialble PRIOR to becoming a Big Ten meber. The projections provided do not count Florida State as a Big Ten member since the data is based on 2024 Big Ten membership.

Many folks say Florida State will be out of the ACC and competeting in a new conference for the 2025 academic year. Thus, as a Big Ten member, over a 5 year period, there would be a minimum of $200M of new revenue available for Florida State. Thus, any loan value that would need to be repaid can result in a net positive revenue projection. Why? Over a 10 year period, there would be a minimum of $424M of new revenue for Florida State. The new revenue from the static portion of the new revenue would have a higher value with Florida State as a Big Ten member, so keep that in mind when reviewing the numbers.

The new revenue coming from the expansion of the college football playoff will lead to more new revenue as a Big Ten member as well, but until things are signed into a contract, those numbers are not going to be listed. Why? Negotations aren't going as good as people thought they would. The networks are not interested in a G5 vs big school playoff game. The value isn't there for them to pay big money.

The GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12. Thus, there is no value you can calculate to assess what the net gain move would be from a conference move. You can only calculate that from a exit fee.

 

[Capella]

Agree on AAU. I don't think FSU or Clemson would be attractive to B1G because of that.

Lol at academics. Buddy that ship sailed a long time ago, and iirc Nebraska isn’t in the AAU. Could be wrong about that.

Either way, Fox runs the Big 10. If they want these teams to expand reach they’ll be in.

 

[Phil Elliott]

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

I suspect if either the SEC or the B1G wants FSU, money won't get in the way. FSU has relatively good research facilities as well. They can get their accreditation if they wanted, but I doubt the B1G would let that be a blocker either....they let Nebraska in without it.

I assume you are aware that the ACC Grant of Rights means the ACC has all media rights for all member universities through 2036, right?

So say FSU moves to the SEC. They start getting a SEC payout share. But the SEC cannot renegotiate their media deals for FSU for 13 years. Why would the SEC accept this? And if FSU isn't getting an SEC payout, and also not getting an ACC payout, why would FSU do this? The obvious answer is that it would require FSU to defeat the ACC GOR in court. And that's what it comes down to... can they?

Also, re: Nebraska, I thought Nebraska had AAU when B1G agreed to take them, but later lost it. Is that incorrect? I thought there was no precedent of B1G expanding with non-AAU universities.

You're trying to apply logic?

 

[Tau837]

Double post.

 

[The Commish]

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

I suspect if either the SEC or the B1G wants FSU, money won't get in the way. FSU has relatively good research facilities as well. They can get their accreditation if they wanted, but I doubt the B1G would let that be a blocker either....they let Nebraska in without it.

I assume you are aware that the ACC Grant of Rights means the ACC has all media rights for all member universities through 2036, right?

So say FSU moves to the SEC. They start getting a SEC payout share. But the SEC cannot renegotiate their media deals for FSU for 13 years. Why would the SEC accept this? And if FSU isn't getting an SEC payout, and also not getting an ACC payout, why would FSU do this? The obvious answer is that it would require FSU to defeat the ACC GOR in court. And that's what it comes down to... can they?

Also, re: Nebraska, I thought Nebraska had AAU when B1G agreed to take them, but later lost it. Is that incorrect? I thought there was no precedent of B1G expanding with non-AAU universities.

Yes...fully aware. What you say is true. If the ACC chooses to go this route and not negotiate, they'll be cutting their nose off to spite their face. I guess anything's possible, but it's going to be smart for them to negotiate an exit. I suspect Fox/ABC/ESPN would much prefer that similar to what they did with Texas/OU on the networks. They all want to make money.

 

[The Commish]

Agree on AAU. I don't think FSU or Clemson would be attractive to B1G because of that.

Lol at academics. Buddy that ship sailed a long time ago, and iirc Nebraska isn’t in the AAU. Could be wrong about that.

Either way, Fox runs the Big 10. If they want these teams to expand reach they’ll be in.

I'll be honest. I'm STILL trying to figure out why Nebraska was brought into the B1G. I didn't think they had a snowball's chance in hell even at the discounts they were willing to grant.

 

[Tau837]

This post

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

I suspect if either the SEC or the B1G wants FSU, money won't get in the way. FSU has relatively good research facilities as well. They can get their accreditation if they wanted, but I doubt the B1G would let that be a blocker either....they let Nebraska in without it.

I assume you are aware that the ACC Grant of Rights means the ACC has all media rights for all member universities through 2036, right?

So say FSU moves to the SEC. They start getting a SEC payout share. But the SEC cannot renegotiate their media deals for FSU for 13 years. Why would the SEC accept this? And if FSU isn't getting an SEC payout, and also not getting an ACC payout, why would FSU do this? The obvious answer is that it would require FSU to defeat the ACC GOR in court. And that's what it comes down to... can they?

Also, re: Nebraska, I thought Nebraska had AAU when B1G agreed to take them, but later lost it. Is that incorrect? I thought there was no precedent of B1G expanding with non-AAU universities.

Someone smarter than me already started this conversation. He's been posting this info on X. Good follow for B1G info. He's already noted that with FOX having media rights with B1G, they have worked with the conference presidents to accept FSU and UNC into the B1G. With the idea of a two conference system starting to appear, the AAU clause may become a nice to have and not a hard requirement. As with Nebraska, I believe they lost their accreditation after joining the B1G.

The consensus is that Florida State needs leave the ACC. So, how can this work financially? That is one of the biggest questions and challenges involved in all of this.

This information has been reviewed by professionals.

The ACC bylaws are clear around the exit fee. That is an easy calculation to do. However, with the addition of SMU, Stanford, and California to the ACC, the payout value will change in coming academic year. But, with an announcment pending soon (more info coming in the coming days on this), the calculation would be based on the revenue numbers of the last tax submissions. That value is below $200M.

Make sure not to confuse a GOR buyout with the exit fee. They are not one and the same. Separate contracts.

I have to keep some information confidential as it can't be released in my tweet, but a loan from a source can be and likely will be used. Yes, it is true that money is there for Florida State to use on a buyout.

It is not unusual for the Big Ten to loan money to a new conference member. It is highly likely () that will be used here as well.

Depending on the value of a negotatiined exit fee, and the loan value given to Florida State, Florida State can make a move to the Big Ten work financially.

Static revenue would be in place from the media payouts. Revenue that is not static can fluctutate academic year to acdemic year but can be projectd. Those projections have been evaluated by network professionals.

With Florida State having approval for pro rata payouts as a Big Ten member, we can calucate what the new revenue that is avaialble PRIOR to becoming a Big Ten meber. The projections provided do not count Florida State as a Big Ten member since the data is based on 2024 Big Ten membership.

Many folks say Florida State will be out of the ACC and competeting in a new conference for the 2025 academic year. Thus, as a Big Ten member, over a 5 year period, there would be a minimum of $200M of new revenue available for Florida State. Thus, any loan value that would need to be repaid can result in a net positive revenue projection. Why? Over a 10 year period, there would be a minimum of $424M of new revenue for Florida State. The new revenue from the static portion of the new revenue would have a higher value with Florida State as a Big Ten member, so keep that in mind when reviewing the numbers.

The new revenue coming from the expansion of the college football playoff will lead to more new revenue as a Big Ten member as well, but until things are signed into a contract, those numbers are not going to be listed. Why? Negotations aren't going as good as people thought they would. The networks are not interested in a G5 vs big school playoff game. The value isn't there for them to pay big money.

The GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12. Thus, there is no value you can calculate to assess what the net gain move would be from a conference move. You can only calculate that from a exit fee.

IMO this post is not convincing about the ACC GOR and how that affects this situation.

 

[ChiefD]

Michigan will be going for its 9th Rose Bowl win…which would tie for 1st all-time with OSU.

Alabama will be going for its 6th (not counting the BCS ‘09 win over Texas)….which would tie them for 4th all-time. The Rose is a big part of Bama history, including being a part of its fight song.

B-2 bomber will be doing the flyover. Doesn't have the panache of the P8 Poseidon spy plane that flew over the Michigan vs OSU game, but it will be pretty sweet.

Those B-2 bombers fly over my house all the time. One day I was on a run and THREE of them flew over in formation. Incredible.

 

[Peak]

This post

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

I suspect if either the SEC or the B1G wants FSU, money won't get in the way. FSU has relatively good research facilities as well. They can get their accreditation if they wanted, but I doubt the B1G would let that be a blocker either....they let Nebraska in without it.

I assume you are aware that the ACC Grant of Rights means the ACC has all media rights for all member universities through 2036, right?

So say FSU moves to the SEC. They start getting a SEC payout share. But the SEC cannot renegotiate their media deals for FSU for 13 years. Why would the SEC accept this? And if FSU isn't getting an SEC payout, and also not getting an ACC payout, why would FSU do this? The obvious answer is that it would require FSU to defeat the ACC GOR in court. And that's what it comes down to... can they?

Also, re: Nebraska, I thought Nebraska had AAU when B1G agreed to take them, but later lost it. Is that incorrect? I thought there was no precedent of B1G expanding with non-AAU universities.

Someone smarter than me already started this conversation. He's been posting this info on X. Good follow for B1G info. He's already noted that with FOX having media rights with B1G, they have worked with the conference presidents to accept FSU and UNC into the B1G. With the idea of a two conference system starting to appear, the AAU clause may become a nice to have and not a hard requirement. As with Nebraska, I believe they lost their accreditation after joining the B1G.

The consensus is that Florida State needs leave the ACC. So, how can this work financially? That is one of the biggest questions and challenges involved in all of this.

This information has been reviewed by professionals.

The ACC bylaws are clear around the exit fee. That is an easy calculation to do. However, with the addition of SMU, Stanford, and California to the ACC, the payout value will change in coming academic year. But, with an announcment pending soon (more info coming in the coming days on this), the calculation would be based on the revenue numbers of the last tax submissions. That value is below $200M.

Make sure not to confuse a GOR buyout with the exit fee. They are not one and the same. Separate contracts.

I have to keep some information confidential as it can't be released in my tweet, but a loan from a source can be and likely will be used. Yes, it is true that money is there for Florida State to use on a buyout.

It is not unusual for the Big Ten to loan money to a new conference member. It is highly likely () that will be used here as well.

Depending on the value of a negotatiined exit fee, and the loan value given to Florida State, Florida State can make a move to the Big Ten work financially.

Static revenue would be in place from the media payouts. Revenue that is not static can fluctutate academic year to acdemic year but can be projectd. Those projections have been evaluated by network professionals.

With Florida State having approval for pro rata payouts as a Big Ten member, we can calucate what the new revenue that is avaialble PRIOR to becoming a Big Ten meber. The projections provided do not count Florida State as a Big Ten member since the data is based on 2024 Big Ten membership.

Many folks say Florida State will be out of the ACC and competeting in a new conference for the 2025 academic year. Thus, as a Big Ten member, over a 5 year period, there would be a minimum of $200M of new revenue available for Florida State. Thus, any loan value that would need to be repaid can result in a net positive revenue projection. Why? Over a 10 year period, there would be a minimum of $424M of new revenue for Florida State. The new revenue from the static portion of the new revenue would have a higher value with Florida State as a Big Ten member, so keep that in mind when reviewing the numbers.

The new revenue coming from the expansion of the college football playoff will lead to more new revenue as a Big Ten member as well, but until things are signed into a contract, those numbers are not going to be listed. Why? Negotations aren't going as good as people thought they would. The networks are not interested in a G5 vs big school playoff game. The value isn't there for them to pay big money.

The GOR value will end up being a network based resolution and games can be moved around to make everyone whole - just as FOX and ESPN did with the exit of OU and UT from the Big 12. Thus, there is no value you can calculate to assess what the net gain move would be from a conference move. You can only calculate that from a exit fee.

IMO this post is not convincing about the ACC GOR and how that affects this situation.

Well no. He even said as much. But he did say he was going to follow up with more info about that. So stay tuned I guess.

 

[WDIK2]

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

I suspect if either the SEC or the B1G wants FSU, money won't get in the way. FSU has relatively good research facilities as well. They can get their accreditation if they wanted, but I doubt the B1G would let that be a blocker either....they let Nebraska in without it.

Nebraska was AAU when they signed to join the B1G. Just to clarify.

ETA: I see Just Win Baby and Peak mentioned that.

 

[Capella]

And how are those schools going to deal with the ACC grant of rights? Are they confident they can beat it in court, or do they just have enough money that they don't care?

I suspect if either the SEC or the B1G wants FSU, money won't get in the way. FSU has relatively good research facilities as well. They can get their accreditation if they wanted, but I doubt the B1G would let that be a blocker either....they let Nebraska in without it.

Nebraska was AAU when they signed to join the B1G. Just to clarify.

ETA: I see Just Win Baby and Peak mentioned that.

Right, but them not being in it now is probably the only crack in the door they need, if they even need one.

Also, fsu isn’t a commuter school. They have a plan to be in the AAU come 2028, whether they reach it or not who knows. I don’t know or care about any of that crap, I got mine.

 

[Da Guru]

Appears the contract extension for Harbaugh is in the 10-11M a year range for 5 years, but he has to commit to not interviewing for NFL jobs after the end of this season.

As a UM guy, what is your confidence level that he actually signs an extension?

As an outsider, I think it’s very very unlikely that he signs an extension. Whether that is his choice or the offer gets pulled I don’t know, but I will be surprised if it happens.

I know for a fact the #1 reason Harbaugh would like to go back to the NFL is the non-stop recruiting, the kissing *** of 16-17 year old kids and their parents only to lose half of them before they get to school, then after 1 season they can transfer or they can transfer mid-season now. Harbaugh is all about "team" keeping the team together for a goal. Those days are over in college football.

If you think it is bad now in 2 years we won`t recognize the college football game of even 5 years ago.

 

[jplvr]

A lot of smoke on Twitter today about FSU pulling the lever and leaving the ACC. Local reporters with a lot of eyes emojis etc. As always I doubt anything happens but it’s out there.

Unfortunately, there are only 2 conferences now. Way back machine here, but Bear Bryant once proposed a 64 team NCAA thing with 4 sets of 16 teams. I wish we would’ve ended up with something like that organically. Unfortunately we became ruled by tv contracts, and even if we get a similar number of teams with 4 possible divisions, it would’ve been nice to see something that won’t be the region less Frankenstein thing we are going to end up seeing. Both of the conferences left, if it does end up being that, will be carrying too much dead weight.

We now have a football minor league with teams who don’t belong because of collegiate alliances. I hate it. I’ll stick around long enough to see who replaces Saban, but I doubt I’m going to be watching nearly as much 7-10 years from now.

We are in the chaos phase following the destruction of the NCAA civilization. Maybe something good will rise up after it is all destroyed.