2024 College Football Thread: Ohio State advances to play unbeaten hypothetical SEC team (6 Viewers)

[TripItUp]

I like

Texas
Oregon
Notre Dame today

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

ACC is 2-9 in bowl games. With a good chance to go 2-11. Embarrassing. Almost hope my Hokies slide to the Big 12.

They spent years suing their way into the ACC. Would the Big 12 even want them?

 

[Jayded]

Ok I promised a prediction for tonight's Sugar Bowl from an ND perspective... (see I said I'd do so @Joe Bryant )

The Irish have rebounded since NIU early this season. Marcus Freeman has really leaned into that loss as a catalyst all season : remember what happens when we get complacent. This team has continually responded positively to that message. Against inferior talent, Notre Dame has blown out opponents this year. Against comparable talent, we see a more level playing field and the defense needing to really step up and balance out the offense. This game will clearly be of the latter situation.

Why Notre Dame can win:

• ND's back seven is quite possibly the best group in the country, especially including former Nagurski winner Xavier Watts ; ND's LB/DB group vs. Stockton is the biggest mismatch of the day
• ND's OL has taken a step back with Rocco Spindler nursing an ankle injury but reports are he's started to practice and would be backed up by would-be starter Charles Jagusah (lost before 1st game to torn pec, but is apparently back)
• Riley Leonard has the 4th highest QBR in the country since week 3
• Against comparable pass defenses (Texas), Georgia QBs went collectively 42/70 (60%) for 151 yards, 0 TDs, 4 ints

Why Notre Dame can lose:

• Georgia staff at media day called their roster the "overall the healthiest it has been since preseason camp"
• Kirby Smart is 9-2 in postseason games at Georgia (not counting this 3 SECCG wins)
• Notre Dame lost Rylie Mills (DT) for the season against Indiana and he's the run stopper up the middle
• ND's depth at both OL and DL is greatly diminished with the DL especially injured and shallow ; if Georgia continues to run, the ND DL depth will be severely challenged by late game

X factors/questions

• Who steps up for Notre Dame as the primary passing weapon?
  • Look for names like Mitchell Evans and Jordan Faison to make waves today ; someone has to step up for ND as a go-to receiver if they are to win. If either or both step forward, it will mean really good things for ND ; they must stay balanced
• What is Georgia's run/pass ratio for today?
  • If they run a ton as I expect, does ND's shallow DL depth give way later in the game? If Georgia stays more balanced, watch for Leonard Moore, Christian Gray, and Xavier Watts to make plays and one of them needs a pick or two when the ball inevitably finds them
• Who wins the turnover battle?
  • In a game this close, I think both teams want to run the ball and thus offensive possessions will be fewer. Which team can capitalize each time they get the ball?
• How do Gabriel Rubio and Bryce Young (no relation, but son of NFL HOFer Bryant Young) handle increased snaps and responsibilities on the DL?
  • If Rubio and Young are game wreckers or hold serve, ND should likely win this game
• Who makes and misses kicking opportunities?
  • Mitch Jeter for Notre Dame has been dreadful this season at 8/15 (53.3%) vs Peyton Woodring for Georgia at 20/22 (90.9%)

Prediction

I'd feel confident picking Notre Dame if but for a few situations. Losing Rylie Mills after already losing Jordan Botelho, Boubar Traore, and Jason Onye leaves the DL depth especially thin. Lots will be on the shoulders of Howard Cross, Gabriel Rubio, and freshman Bryce Young. In a game this close, we also need to look at the kicking situation and Notre Dame's has been dreadful this year. Mitch Jeter was automatic until this year and has developed a bad case of the yips at the worst possible time.

The game stays close until the end, when it does come down to making every possession count. ND misses a critical FG when it's needed and the game ends with ND having to score a TD to win vs. needing a FG because of an earlier miss. Georgia wins 28-24. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[whoknew]

Feels like every bowl game has been amazing and every playoff game a dud. Don’t know what that means, if anything.

I think the playoff games are bound to be duds until the final 4 teams are left. The difference in the #5 team and the #12 team is large. Then in the second week one team hasn't played in 3+ weeks. It's easy to come out flat like Boise State did. They were outmatched anyway, but definitely looked out of game mode. Then some conference champs simply aren't all that great to be top 4 seeds. I think they will fix it. ASU and BST should not have had byes IMO. Just rank them where the computer puts them. Then all the games become better.

ETA ... Saban is an excellent analyst.

Saban is a good analyst, no question. But he's also full of crap. When he got pissed at Shane Gillis for calling him out. Come on, man. Or when he said Ohio State fans need to get a life. Did he forget about Harvey Updyke? His ability to forget about the stuff that happened at Alabama and believe in an alternate reality is impressive.

 

[Jayded]

Short and sweet - Longhorns in this earlier matchup. Closer than folks think, ASU covers, but the loss of Tyson puts all emphasis on Skattebo and Texas has a legit run D.

I think it’s one too many injuries for ASU.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Feels like every bowl game has been amazing and every playoff game a dud. Don’t know what that means, if anything.

I think the playoff games are bound to be duds until the final 4 teams are left. The difference in the #5 team and the #12 team is large. Then in the second week one team hasn't played in 3+ weeks. It's easy to come out flat like Boise State did. They were outmatched anyway, but definitely looked out of game mode. Then some conference champs simply aren't all that great to be top 4 seeds. I think they will fix it. ASU and BST should not have had byes IMO. Just rank them where the computer puts them. Then all the games become better.

ETA ... Saban is an excellent analyst.

Saban is a good analyst, no question. But he's also full of crap. When he got pissed at Shane Gillis for calling him out. Come on, man. Or when he said Ohio State fans need to get a life. Did he forget about Harvey Updyke? His ability to forget about the stuff that happened at Alabama and believe in an alternate reality is impressive.

Well he's not wrong about OSU fans.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Lemme guess. Tessitore on the play by play.

Ooooffff

Thank god for Skycast

 

[identikit]

So that was easy

 

[GregR]

So, time to put in Arch?

 

[identikit]

Even easier

 

[dickey moe]

Now we've got a game!

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Blow out city already underway.

 

[Jayded]

Sugar Bowl to be postponed 1 day it appears :

x.com

x.com

 

[Brunell4MVP]

So in this game we have the Massey #5 TEX vs #13 ASU.

Last night we had the Massey #6 PSU vs # 27 Boise St. (I think BSU was #16 before the game)

And the difference shows.

 

[General Malaise]

What teams got rewarded for strength of schedule? Half the teams in the playoff didn't beat a ranked team. Only 1 one team with more losses that beat ranked teams got in, Clemson, and only because they won a P5 conference.

Heck, BYU was 10-2, beat a ranked team, had a stronger strength of schedule than SMU, a higher CFB power index ranking than SMU, even beat SMU head to head, and wasn't even talked about as a playoff team.

The real screwjob in all of this is this insane idea that conference championship games can help you if you win, but not hurt you if you lose. Like some kind of freebie game. It's never worked like that before and no one had a problem with it. Why people started down that crusade this year is beyond me. College football is not a standardized schedule like the NFL. Every conference handles things differently. Some have more conference games, some play a championship game, etc. The committee's job is to pick the teams based on the games they play, not standardize schedule by removing games but then count those exact same games for other teams. It's absurd. The committee will walk back that statement next year because it was so, so ridiculous.

What teams? Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and South Carolina.

Tell me with a straight face that a 3-loss ACC or Big XII team would even be considered for a top 12 slot. The only reason Bama and South Carolina were considered is SOS.

People have short memories on Texas too. Their SEC schedule has them avoiding everyone but Georgia, who beat them twice. Who is Texas’ biggest win? A&M or Michigan I guess? But they are in because they played an SEC schedule and only lost twice and yet no one is calling them and their favorable schedule out.

Uh...but neither of those teams got in, and got left out for teams with soft schedules, so what did that get them? Nothing.

And Texas is absolutely an example of a team that played a trash schedule and got rewarded for it. And it's absolutely been pointed out in here. I've argued about it twice in here myself, as others have as well.

Texas had an easy schedule, beat no ranked teams, lost their last game, and got the 5th seed in the playoff

South Carolina beat two ranked teams, ended the season on a 6 game win streak and by beating a playoff team in their last game, and got left out of the playoffs.

How is that rewarding teams for playing a harder schedule, and factoring in when the losses/wins happened? South Carolina played a harder overall schedule (4 ranked teams versus 2), beat two ranked teams to Texas' zero, and finished the season out more strongly, yet finished like 9 spots behind Texas because they had one more loss.

Play an easy schedule, get fewer losses is 100% the optimal path the CFP.

There are 8 teams playing in the playoff this weekend and those 8 teams had a COMBINED three wins against ranked opponents this year.

Bama had more ranked wins than all those posers

Good showing by Bama today......

:crickets:

Crap, Milroe played in this and they still got worked? Did the rest of Bama opt out? Or was Bama just not that good all along?

Michugan’s 10 best players also opted out. This was a lot of young UM guys who were given a big chance to prove themselves. Obviously they did quite well.

Milroe should have opted out. Did himself no favors today.

Agree, Michigan D has his number. He can’t deal with exotic coverage schemes and disguised blitz packages.

Hes garbage. Not nfl. But make no mistake these michigan guys aint ****. This means nothing

Lol.....sit the rest of this out, Sparky. You showed the room who you are.

 

[General Malaise]

Sugar Bowl to be postponed 1 day it appears :

x.com

x.com

You sure about this?

 

[CletiusMaximus]

ACC is 2-9 in bowl games. With a good chance to go 2-11. Embarrassing. Almost hope my Hokies slide to the Big 12.

With one of the two wins being Louisville over the Huskies, who finished 11th in the Big Ten with a losing record. Washington lost on a failed potential game-winning two point conversion with 9 seconds left rather than going to OT with extra point. I don't know much about the Hokies but if Minnesota comes to play they will be a tough out. They beat USC and Illinois and really should have beat Penn St.

 

[SHIZNITTTT]

With some of these playoff games being lopsided I hope the talking sports heads don't jump on the bandwagon of "WE don't need 12 teams" in the playoffs. The talent level between some of these teams is crazy. We need a lower seed to get an upset quickly. I just want more playoff games regardless of the scores. win/win.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

ACC is 2-9 in bowl games. With a good chance to go 2-11. Embarrassing. Almost hope my Hokies slide to the Big 12.

With one of the two wins being Louisville over the Huskies, who finished 11th in the Big Ten with a losing record. Washington lost on a failed potential game-winning two point conversion with 9 seconds left rather than going to OT with extra point. I don't know much about the Hokies but if Minnesota comes to play they will be a tough out. They beat USC and Illinois and really should have beat Penn St.

No idea who is opting out for VT but they are bringing Bud Foster back to sit in the booth and call the defense.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Feels like every bowl game has been amazing and every playoff game a dud. Don’t know what that means, if anything.

It seems like something is off when two of the top four seeds/bye teams are double digit underdogs.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Feels like every bowl game has been amazing and every playoff game a dud. Don’t know what that means, if anything.

It seems like something is off when two of the top four seeds/bye teams are double digit underdogs.

It's called TV Contracts/Money. That stuff is either going to have to get fixed or the P2 should just break away.

 

[Jayded]

Sugar Bowl to be postponed 1 day it appears :

x.com

x.com

You sure about this?

Apparently. That’s a local reporter and guys I know down there are already reacting as such.

Word from them is “people are leaving in droves” so not terribly surprising if soon to be confirmed.

 

[Capella]

Feels like every bowl game has been amazing and every playoff game a dud. Don’t know what that means, if anything.

It seems like something is off when two of the top four seeds/bye teams are double digit underdogs.

Should have never went past 6 teams. That would have been perfect. No going back now.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

The problem with upsets is this isn't some game buried within a larger season. The better team is prepared, and usually better coached with more resources to scout the opponent. And unlike meaningless bowl games, playoff teams have all their players. At the college level it's not so much about the stars on each team as it is the talent depth. The backups on the TEX OL would all be starting at ASU. The CB backups for TEX would likely be the #1 CB on ASU. Same when looking at PSU vs BSU.

Tonights games should be better. OSU, ORE, UGA and ND are all around the same talent level and depth. I'd argue the underdogs ND and OSU have more talent this year than the teams they are playing.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Touchdown Tommy Mellott is the 2024 Walter Camp FCS Player of the Year

 

[Desert_Power]

OSU, ORE, UGA and ND are all around the same talent level and depth. I'd argue the underdogs ND and OSU have more talent this year than the teams they are playing.

Per 247's talent ranker, UGA is 2, OSU is 3, Oregon is 7, and ND is 9. Pretty close.

 

[Joe Bryant]

OSU, ORE, UGA and ND are all around the same talent level and depth. I'd argue the underdogs ND and OSU have more talent this year than the teams they are playing.

Per 247's talent ranker, UGA is 2, OSU is 3, Oregon is 7, and ND is 9. Pretty close.

Thanks. Do you have the link for that?

 

[need2know]

Another blowout

 

[belljr]

Yeah the culture at Oregon since Lanning really makes me proud to be a Duck, for sure.

You type very well for having webbed feet....

 

[Desert_Power]

OSU, ORE, UGA and ND are all around the same talent level and depth. I'd argue the underdogs ND and OSU have more talent this year than the teams they are playing.

Per 247's talent ranker, UGA is 2, OSU is 3, Oregon is 7, and ND is 9. Pretty close.

Thanks. Do you have the link for that?

2024 College Football Team Talent Composite

In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.

247sports.com

Not the gospel, just interesting to check out from time to time.

 

[Jayded]

Sugar Bowl to be postponed 1 day it appears :

x.com

x.com

You sure about this?

Apparently. That’s a local reporter and guys I know down there are already reacting as such.

Word from them is “people are leaving in droves” so not terribly surprising if soon to be confirmed.

CBS confirming : https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...ushes-georgia-vs-notre-dame-game-to-thursday/

 

[Brunell4MVP]

ACC is 2-9 in bowl games. With a good chance to go 2-11. Embarrassing. Almost hope my Hokies slide to the Big 12.

They spent years suing their way into the ACC. Would the Big 12 even want them?

Well the ACC wasn't half falling apart at the time. B12 contacted them a couple of times already about coming over if the ACC folded. ACC less likely to fold now than 2 years ago, but VT would be a great school for them to expand further east (and into the DC market where >40% of VT alums live)

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Sugar Bowl to be postponed 1 day it appears :

x.com

x.com

You sure about this?

Apparently. That’s a local reporter and guys I know down there are already reacting as such.

Word from them is “people are leaving in droves” so not terribly surprising if soon to be confirmed.

CBS confirming : https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...ushes-georgia-vs-notre-dame-game-to-thursday/

Just confirmed on CNN

Yea they can’t play this game today. They have no clue what’s out there right now. Good responsible decision.

Give the blowouts a break for a day.

 

[NutterButter]

With some of these playoff games being lopsided I hope the talking sports heads don't jump on the bandwagon of "WE don't need 12 teams" in the playoffs. The talent level between some of these teams is crazy. We need a lower seed to get an upset quickly. I just want more playoff games regardless of the scores. win/win.

I agree. It's no loss to me having these games. I wasn't watching them as bowls especially with all the players sitting out.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

With some of these playoff games being lopsided I hope the talking sports heads don't jump on the bandwagon of "WE don't need 12 teams" in the playoffs. The talent level between some of these teams is crazy. We need a lower seed to get an upset quickly. I just want more playoff games regardless of the scores. win/win.

I agree. It's no loss to me having these games. I wasn't watching them as bowls especially with all the players sitting out.

Well then we might as well go 64 deep so the networks have more content.

 

[Chadstroma]

Bama lost to Michigan.

Can we officially say that no team that has 3 losses should ever make the playoffs? Yes, strength of schedule matters but record matters more.

 

[TLEF316]

Lol. How do you fall for a fake there

 

[NutterButter]

With some of these playoff games being lopsided I hope the talking sports heads don't jump on the bandwagon of "WE don't need 12 teams" in the playoffs. The talent level between some of these teams is crazy. We need a lower seed to get an upset quickly. I just want more playoff games regardless of the scores. win/win.

I agree. It's no loss to me having these games. I wasn't watching them as bowls especially with all the players sitting out.

Well then we might as well go 64 deep so the networks have more content.

Sure. I probably wouldn't watch those just like I don't watch most of the 1st round of the bball tournament. But I find these close enough in the rankings to generate some excitement for me. I mean it's no loss I see if there's more games. It's just less bowls I ain't watching anyways bc there's nothing at stake.

 

[McBokonon]

just like I don't watch most of the 1st round of the bball tournament

The 1st round is the best part. This doesn’t compute at all.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I don’t understand why the Big 12 gets an auto bid they’re basically on the same level as the WAC

 

[TLEF316]

Not a big college football fan but I absolutely think the expansion was the right move.

Money aside, it gives the small schools a seat at the table (even if they're gonna get whooped most of the time) and gets rid of the FSU scenario from last year (even though I didn't think they were a top 4 team without Travis, leaving out an undefeated power 5 champ was rough)

In most years, there will probably only be 5 or 6 teams worthy of playing for a title, but at least now it will be proven on the field. You don't have to watch the bad games. I know I won't. Once the semis roll around, ill get more interested

 

[heckmanm]

I don’t understand why the Big 12 gets an auto bid they’re basically on the same level as the WAC

They don’t specifically, but the 4 highest ranked conference champs do. They were the 4th. ACC would have had the spot if it was SMU (or Miami had they not had some dumb losses)

 

[Desert_Power]

Texas hasn't really impressed me, was hoping ASU would give them more of a game.

 

[NutterButter]

just like I don't watch most of the 1st round of the bball tournament

The 1st round is the best part. This doesn’t compute at all.

maybe they'd be similar excitement if there were 32 do or die football games over 2 days. I mean most would be blowouts just like most bball games are but there would be some exciting ones. I don't know who watches those playin games

 

[bagger]

No idea why they are even lining up for a FG. Does 17-3 or 17-6 matter at half?

 

[Brunell4MVP]

How does a team incapable making a FG go 11-2? They are now 10 of 19 on the year.

 

[heckmanm]

Just a thought that NIL and the portal will mean skill position talent is going to be more widely distributed, leading to more schools putting up impressive records. But the size and speed on OL/DL is still concentrated with the traditional powerhouses. Unless that shifts, we will keep seeing mostly blowouts thru the quarterfinals

 

[culdeus]

Let's keep adding more teams. Make the kids earn that NIL blowing out two **** teams to start.

 

[Capella]

No idea why they are even lining up for a FG. Does 17-3 or 17-6 matter at half?

Boise did the same thing. These severely undermanned teams who think they are on the same level as their opponent so they should be kicking is insane. You are a two touchdown dog, you have to play and game plan that way.

 

[TLEF316]

No idea why they are even lining up for a FG. Does 17-3 or 17-6 matter at half?

Boise did the same thing. These severely undermanned teams who think they are on the same level as their opponent so they should be kicking is insane. You are a two touchdown dog, you have to play and game plan that way.

Thought the same thing last night. These guys should be coaching like Dan Campbell. 4th and one on their own 35? Boise state should have just given it to jeanty and live with the consequences. If you can't get 1 yard with your generational tail back, you're not winning anyway.