How do the Lions win the division?
Regardless of anything that happens next Sunday, the Lions win the division by winning at Green Bay in the final game of the regular season. They would also win the division Sunday with a win at Chicago combined with a Packers loss at Tampa Bay (based on the fourth division tiebreaker, best conference record).
How do the Lions earn a first-round bye and host a playoff game?
They must win the division and have a record equal to or better than the NFC East winner. So, the Lions can either win their final two games -- or lose at Chicago, win at Green Bay and have the Cowboys lose at least once.
How do the Lions earn the No. 1 seed?
The Lions must win at Chicago and at Green Bay, and Arizona must lose its final two games (vs. Seattle and at San Francisco), and Seattle must lose its final game (vs. St. Louis).
How do the Lions miss the playoffs?
The only way the Lions miss the playoffs is if they lose their final two games, and the Eagles win their final two games, and the Cowboys win at least one more.
Who will they play if they're a wild card?
If the Lions are a wild card, they most likely will be the No. 6 seed and travel to face the NFC East winner (which right now would be Dallas). If they finish with the No. 5 seed, they would play at the NFC South winner (which right now would be Carolina, though New Orleans and Atlanta are in contention as well). If Dallas finishes 12-4, Detroit could play in Green Bay or Seattle.
How do they get the No. 5 seed?
If the Lions make the playoffs as an 11-5 wild-card team, they must have Seattle lose its final two games. Otherwise, the Lions are a No. 6 seed.
Can an 11-5 team really miss the playoffs?
Yes. If Philadelphia wins its final two games, Dallas doesn't lose its final two games, and neither Detroit, Green Bay nor Seattle lose their final two games, Philadelphia or Dallas is 11-5 and out.
But Detroit, of course, would be in.
Just win, baby. One more time.
NFC playoff standings:
x-1. Arizona (11-3)
2. Detroit (10-4)
3. Dallas (10-4)
4. Carolina (5-8-1)
5. Seattle (10-4)
6. Green Bay (10-4)
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7. Philadelphia (9-5)
x -- Clinched playoff spot