GregR
Footballguy
If Texas had played another cupcake instead of OSU, would they be in the playoffs? If USC, like several of its Big 10 colleagues, had played three cupcakes instead of including Notre Dame, would they be in the playoffs? Or at least not decisively out? Is the playoff structure even further incentivizing schools to avoid marquee out of conference matchups?
Solely from a view of "do what's best to make the playoffs", I think whether a team should schedule top teams or cupcakes depends entirely on the team's situation with the rest of their schedule and how they expect they'll do.
It is a rare loss that is going to count as better than a win over even a cupcake. #12 team taking #1 to triple overtime in a dramatic hard-fought loss might be worth more than a victory against winless U Mass, might even move them up a spot in the rankings. But outside of extreme cases like that, the loss usually hurts you worse.
But the win against a good opponent is also worth a lot more than the cupcake win.
So it comes down to how you feel about the rest of your schedule. With how you think you'll be end of season with the opponents you faced, if you think you're going to struggle to get in, then you probably want to gamble on playing a higher echelon team even if the loss will keep you out.
A good analogy is a PAT or going for two. The PAT is worth half as much, but it's more likely to succeed. So you go for 2 when you think you need that extra boost from the additional point that comes with success.
That is just based on draconian only care about making the playoffs though. I think one could make good arguments that rivalry games and high profile games are of a benefit to the schools involved and to the overall sport, in ways that definitely should be included in the decision.
One thing I was thinking about today in relation to this.
Ask the same question but instead of Texas and USC impact if they didn't schedule OSU and ND... ask yourself about where are Texas A&M and Miami if you replace ND with Bowling Green?
A&M might still make the playoffs with just being a 1 loss team, but is Miami completely out of the conversation?
