DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
this made me laugh. vet minimum. bring him in. if he's too disruptive/goofy/corny/etc, cut him.
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2025 Las Vegas Raiders thread - ☠ Everyone is 0-0 ☠ (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Hankmoody
- Start date
massraider
Footballguy
Broncos are paying him 39 mill this year. Whatever 24 salary he gets offsets the Broncos cost. So, if he signs for 2 mill for this year, Broncos pay 37 mill, new team pays 2 mill. The question is, not so much the 24 bargain (where he could cost as little as 2 million on his new team's cap), but if he is able to get a 2025 guarantee from anyone.
If someone is going to get him for 1 year/2 million, that may as well be us. There will be very few players next year able to make the kind of impact he can, that are making 2 mill. But if he's looking for a multi-year deal, with big 2025 guarantees, ehhh. In that case, I would hope he goes to someone drafting in front of us.
The Steelers. That's the team we need to NOT get a QB. I want Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson all going to teams picking in the top 13, lol. Steelers getting a decent QB is not best for us getting a QB.
interesting point about the '25 guaranteed money, i don't think anyone is going to give him an amount he's going to be happy with so my guess is he approaches '24 as a chance to earn a contract after.
massraider
Footballguy
Just speaking about it in the abstract, it's easy to say that.
Teams without a QB might be a little more open to a guy who played OK last year.
Raiders are in the playoffs last year with the 23 Russell Wilson
I'm actually thinking about it more from the Russ angle, purely speculating but seems like he'd be willing to be on himself and maybe partly pride and wouldn't settle for say $20M
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Maybe. They certainly would have started the season better.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
100%. I first floated the Russell Wilson idea a number of pages ago. Hell I would even take on his contract if DEN gave us a pick ala Brock Osweiler. Even moreso now that Jimmy Grapes has no guaranteed money now. $39M isn't a big number for a QB, it's just a hair more than Carr would have been. We'd probably be able to get Wilson to work on the 2025 guarantee if we get in front of it this way.
massraider
Footballguy
I am a little surprised that we haven't heard about potential landing spots for Wilson. Kinda makes me think his market might be pretty bad.
We clearly don't have the full picture of his issues, because two teams both walked away from a talented QB, without a better option. That does NOT happen.
I am content if the team lets a QB come to them, whoever it is. I just don't want to force anything. Browns, Broncos, Panthers, bunch of teams recently have been really aggressive about getting the QB, and it's going to mess them up for years.
We clearly don't have the full picture of his issues, because two teams both walked away from a talented QB, without a better option. That does NOT happen.
I am content if the team lets a QB come to them, whoever it is. I just don't want to force anything. Browns, Broncos, Panthers, bunch of teams recently have been really aggressive about getting the QB, and it's going to mess them up for years.
You make a valid point in your last paragraph. I feel like the Raiders want to make a big move in the draft. Bottom line, they do need to make a move period, as O’Connell is the only QB on the roster. But they have to be patient and as absolutely sure the guy they want is as close to can’t miss as possible.
I believe going up to the top 3 picks is just too rich. Someone might slide like Levis did last year. Or target JJ at 7 or 8 and not have to give up the whole farm, maybe half. I also like the idea of sticking at #13 and drafting trenches and coming back around later for a Penix, Nix or Rattler.
I still like the idea of trading for Fields too. AP would love to lead the league in rushing with Getsy, Fields, Jacobs and White. Just fits the identity AP is looking to establish coming off of last year. But again, they’re going to have to be patient. The longer they wait, the cheaper Fields will become as other teams begin to fill their QB spots. A 3rd would be ideal in my mind for him but if it takes a 2nd then I still hope they pull the trigger, just not for a 1st.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
This is where I’m at as well. Add the cornball dangeruss and just cut him if it’s not working out.
Yeah, I’m all for giving him a shot to beat out AOC (which isn’t a given) at a vet minimum. If he fails and can’t control his ego, it’s an easy cut.
Tau837
Footballguy
I read that Cousins' wife is from Atlanta, the two were married there, and her family still lives there. If that is all true, they have to be the favorite to sign him, particularly since they would immediately become the favorite to win their division and thus a likely immediate playoff team.
Tau837
Footballguy
You seem to be referring to the Jimmy Johnson chart, but that chart is outdated now. There are others published, like the Rich Hill, Fitzgerald-Spielberger, and Harvard Trade Value Charts. The Rich Hill chart is somewhat similar to the JJ chart, but the FS and Harvard charts are quite different, literally giving opposite values for which team gained value in past trades.
More importantly, I think it is widely held that every NFL team has its own chart nowadays. Those mentioned above are just approximations, and we would expect every team to value draft capital differently.
massraider
Footballguy
It really looks like a consolation prize.
Wilson, and Fields look like they are going to have to wait and see what happens with Cousins/Mayfield, and maybe the draft.
Fowler was on ESPN, and he was saying he thought Wilson made sense to LV, but he also said, kind of out of the blue, that LV has been quiet in relation to the QB position, not much free agent chatter. Between that, and Pierce literally saying they didn't want another Band-Aid at QB, kind of puts me in the camp that they are focusing on getting one of the top 4 guys.
They looked into trading up last year. That was a different front office, but with a new GM/coach, it makes sense.
I dunno what kind of trade I would be happy with, but these mega deals involving 4-5 picks, no thanks. Maybe a 1 this year, and 1 next year, tops.
Agreed… AP has also stated that going with O’Connell would be “worst case scenario “. I think it’s a given they will do something. How big, is the big question right?
If they don’t get their QB in the draft, Russ on the cheap makes sense. Then they can put that money into a guy like Christian Watkins to bolster the DL.
I just think at this point landing Daniels is a pipe dream. It’s the double edged sword that got AP the full time job. He won too many games.
ICON211
Footballguy
We finally moved on from a QB that was taking up too high a percentage of the salary cap last year for what he brought to the table. If they bring in Russ for vet minimum for this year then fine. Bringing him in for $39M and with a 2025 guarantee would be a hard, hard, hard pass for me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It does seem like a very Raiders thing to do.
LawFitz
Footballguy
$0 guaranteed money for Russ is the only right answer for any set of options that includes his name. IF the Raiders don't get their starter in the draft, he's feasible as a one-year, prove-it competitor to AOC. That's it. He doesn't like it, eff him. Draft one of the developmental QBs in Rd 2-4, instead, and let that guy come in and compete. Joe Milton is being talked about only very little, but put on the tape and he looks a lot like a poor man's Tony Richardson. Hell, they should draft a developmental QB even if Russ is willing to sign a one-year prove-it deal. AOC provides insurance, with still very intriguiging upside in spades.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
The first minute as interim HC, AP benched Jimmy G for an unproven 4th round rookie QB. Russ is better than Jimmy G though and I wouldn’t be surprised if LV brought Russ in at a relatively cheap salary to compete with AOC and a rookie QB in 2024. Many teams are probably thinking the same thing though.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
It would be pretty humorous if things worked out so that 2024 Broncos vs Raiders squared off w/ Stidham v Wilson at QB. The Retread Bowl
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It would only be about the price - HOU gave CLE a 3rd round pick I think it was to take on Osweiler's contract. I'd do that. Salary cap money can only get you so far and we have to spend it on someone. We have plenty of space. Like I said it would require re-working that 2025 guarantee though.
massraider
Footballguy
I don't get what you are saying.
He's gonna be a free agent. No one is trading for him. Denver is paying almost all of the 39 mill this year. His only 2025 numbers are whatever he can negotiate once he's a free agent. If anything.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Rich Hill calls it the #70 to move up - a whopping two slots more.
Fitzgerald-Spielberger is a joke, it's more of a smoothed-out salary analysis than anything. According to that to go from #13 to #8 would take #229 - a 7th round pick. Yeah, no.
Harvard is just as bad - it says the difference equals the #198.
There are all just swags, until (which won't happen) a team shares its valuation method all we can do is use the best guess tools we have.
Not really
“I would say that, in general, the trades over the last several years for the most part have been, let’s call them within 5 to 10 percent, pretty equitable trades,” Belichick said. “So, for you to have a chart that’s different than the other 31 charts isn’t really that productive because now we’re just arguing about which chart – ‘My chart says this. Your chart says that.’ . . . I would say everybody probably uses about the same value chart. I’d say in our draft trade negotiations through the years, especially the last two or three years, there hasn’t been a lot of, ‘My chart says this. Your chart says that.’
Chadstroma
Footballguy
- Broncos set to take largest dead cap hit in NFL history. By releasing Wilson, the Broncos will have to absorb a dead cap hit of $85 million. The only upside here is that the Broncos can make Wilson a post-June 1 cut, which will allow them to spread the hit out over two seasons. If they do that -- and they're expected to -- the dead cap hit will be $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025. Those will be two of the four largest dead cap hits in NFL history.
- Wilson is allowed to seek a job now. The Broncos could have kept Wilson from talking to other teams until he was actually cut, but according to ESPN.com, he's allowed to negotiate now, which means he'll be getting a one-week jump on free agency. The Broncos owe Wilson $39 million in cash for 2024, but that will be offset with whatever amount he makes from a new team, so he might be motivated to sign for a low price just to stick it to the Broncos (If you're wondering how offsets work: If Wilson signs a $2 million contract with another team, then the Broncos only owe him $37 million instead of $39 million, so whatever money the new team gives him, that's less money the Broncos have to pay him).
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I'm saying we COULD trade for him. Denver gives us #76 and Russ Wilson, we give them nothing. Like the Brock Osweiler trade:
Brock Osweiler trade smart move by Browns' front office | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF
Analyst John Kosko breaks down the move that will bring Brock Osweiler to Cleveland.
www.pff.com
Teams frequently let the new team talk to the player about re-working a contract before the trade is official. We call Russ up and say "hey, keep your 2024 money, but let's talk about 2025". He's not gonna get much on the open market, maybe we can reduce the 2025 guarantee to say $10M, with the rest guaranteeing if he's on the roster on March 2025.
DEN would be saving $39M in dead money if we do this since we pay 2024 and not them. What is that worth to Denver? Is it a 3rd? A 2nd like Osweiler was? If it's not a "good" pick then sure, we obviously don't do it, but if the price is right I wouldn't complain about it.
ZADO
Footballguy
Thats not what i read and heard , sounds like its his job to lose thru competition.
He was also clear that while the Silver and Black are looking to bring in another quarterback, Aidan O'Connell, who went 3-1 with a 8:0 touchdown-interception ratio to end his rookie season, should not be overlooked.
"I'm watching a gentleman that knows he has a lot to work on, and the first thing he did once the season was over is get his butt right back in the building," Pierce said. "It would be disrespectful for me to talk about anyone other than Aidan, but Aidan does know there's competition. ... That's one thing about this team, they're very competitive and they understand it's next-man up mentality."
Tau837
Footballguy
Fair enough. With the proliferation of NFL analytics and metrics in recent years, I think it is naive to believe that teams still rely on the trade value chart Jimmy Johnson came up with more than 30 years ago. But YMMV.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
I don’t want any more than a one year contract with a vet min guarantee. Do not give RW any more than that.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
They’ve got to do something at QB because AOC just doesn’t pass the eyeball test. Period. End of story.
One can spin stats and pick individual throws or games, but overall dude doesn’t have starting stud material
One can spin stats and pick individual throws or games, but overall dude doesn’t have starting stud material
Problem with AOC is he just doesn’t move the needle. We had 9 years of average to mediocre QB play DC under center. I think O’Connell did an admirable job last year considering the situation he was thrown into. But I personally see another average QB, they need more. The fan base needs more. They have to get more Silver & Black butts in the seats at Aligiant. Davis has to know this, as well as Telesco and AP. They’re going to have to take a risk and go big at QB. At the very least make a trade for Fields, he at least offers some juice at QB that AOC doesn’t. But I truly believe they are going to try to entice Chi, Was and/or NE to move off their spot with huge haul of picks for the opportunity to draft Daniels and possibly Williams. (Although the latter is highly unlikely).
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Im not against Fields but he’s worth no more than a second at best. His running ability is off the charts but his passing didn’t progress like I thought it would last season. It’s tough to truly evaluate him in the mess that is the Chicago Bears though. I don’t pretend to be a great evaluator of QBs though.
joey
Footballguy
I’d rather sit at the 13 and take one of McCarthy, Penix or even Nix and not give up anything beyond that.
Or trade our 2nd rounder plus something to move into the bottom of the 1st to grab one of those 3 if they drop.
I like both of the above options over Fields, Russell or selling the farm for a top 3 pick.
Or trade our 2nd rounder plus something to move into the bottom of the 1st to grab one of those 3 if they drop.
I like both of the above options over Fields, Russell or selling the farm for a top 3 pick.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Funny how AOC is pretty much the exact polar opposite of Fields as a QB. Both have major, diametrically opposed flaws, and yet, IMHO, are better than the cast-off level so many want to attribute to them. AOC looked plenty good for a stone-shoed rookie.
You know who else wore stone shoes?.
.. Brady, Manning, Rivers, to drop big names. Or Goff, Cousins to drop $40-50 MM small names. It is possible to excel without mobility in this league if you can read defenses and throw with touch, timing, accuracy, which is exactly what upside version of AOC does. So, while I'll glady tap brakes on comparing him to HOF and GOAT QBs, let's also tap brakes on throwing him completely into a dumpster.
You know who else wore stone shoes?.
.. Brady, Manning, Rivers, to drop big names. Or Goff, Cousins to drop $40-50 MM small names. It is possible to excel without mobility in this league if you can read defenses and throw with touch, timing, accuracy, which is exactly what upside version of AOC does. So, while I'll glady tap brakes on comparing him to HOF and GOAT QBs, let's also tap brakes on throwing him completely into a dumpster.
Tau837
Footballguy
LMAO at comparing AOC to Brady, Manning, Rivers, et al.
LawFitz
Footballguy
It's an eye test. Foot's on the brakes. AOC has similar strengths as other stone-shoed elite QBs. What he doesn't have is elite mental processing *speed*. Yet. He does have the processing ability and the arm. Speed may or may not come, but he showed flashes as a rookie, which is what I look for. Next two years will tell if there's actually any there there.
rockaction
Footballguy
Warren Sharp tweeted out some really interesting stats about Justin Fields the other day. His EPA/pass attempt is awful. I don't think he's the answer for anyone.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Dude. I worry he’s not gonna make it to the handoff spot if it’s anything outside the A gap.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Unrelated. But another stat. Wilson was sacked the most last year. the donkey had near the bottom stats in all things related to the pass game. I didn’t realize they were that bad. And Russ still played ok.
He’s still a chooch though.
ICON211
Footballguy
For $39M you can probably sign a really good DT and a good offensive lineman, or spend it elsewhere. Russ is going to be released anyway and can probably be signed for vet minimum. If I said you can have Russ and 2-3 other good players or Russ and a third round pick which would you take?
kaso
Footballguy
Initially read this as Warren Sapp.... and thought 'who cares?!'...
But the content on Fields is bang on, and worrisome.
Same, but different.. Fields athletic abilities may be hiding how poor of a QB he really is at this level. Meanwhile AOC's lack of athletic ability (in terms of scrambling/mobility - he is still a way better athlete than I will ever be) may be hiding how good of a QB he could be.
ZADO
Footballguy
I`m on board with Lawfitz on AOC . Nobody is comparing the players to AOC, just the style of play . People just seem to be oblivious to the fact AOC was thrown into the fire with almost zero work with the first team , then AP declares him the starter going forward , which is pretty interesting knowing how important it was to save the season and prove he belongs as a HC in this league. If he believes in AOC how can the fans even have a real opinion that makes sense ? Clearly the team and AP see something we dont every single day . I went on youtube and watched AOC highlights from last season, he makes some outstanding throws , and as he got more comfortable he even started scrambling a bit , especially in the last game of the season. He deserves a real shot . Im in a wait n see before i declare him a no talent statue .
Chadstroma
Footballguy
If you are talking what is sexy
Mobile QB > Pocket Passer
And it isn't close.
If you are talking what is effective, then it really is either or and I think largely is reliant on the system they are in.
As much as that QB running can add to an offense, it also opens up the QB to more injury risk since they lose all the protection they get in a pocket by rule and become another runner unless they slide.
A good line around a pocket passer that is accurate and can read defenses with good targets is deadly. Getsy "grew up" in offenses lead by Rodgers who isn't really a "mobile QB" though he certainly moved around in the pocket very well. Then as an OC he had Fields which you have to try to make your system work for him. What does that mean for us? I have no idea what Getsy really would like as his "ideal" QB or likely better expressed as what attributes he puts a premium on.
One thing that drives me up the wall about fan talk on draft and FA is the idea that "here are the best players at this position" and the assumption that it does not matter where that player goes into what system and with what teammates. They think their ranking is the same for all teams... plug and play. Most players simply are not like that. Someone will thrive in a system and struggle in another.
With that in mind, I really don't have a strong opinion on what we should do with the QB question. The only thing I can say with confidence is that we can't just roll back in with AOC, though I also don't rule him out as being able to continue to develop into an effective NFL starter. He showed enough to say that the rookie has a range of being that but also with some struggles that he may be a solid back up on the low end.
Mobile QB > Pocket Passer
And it isn't close.
If you are talking what is effective, then it really is either or and I think largely is reliant on the system they are in.
As much as that QB running can add to an offense, it also opens up the QB to more injury risk since they lose all the protection they get in a pocket by rule and become another runner unless they slide.
A good line around a pocket passer that is accurate and can read defenses with good targets is deadly. Getsy "grew up" in offenses lead by Rodgers who isn't really a "mobile QB" though he certainly moved around in the pocket very well. Then as an OC he had Fields which you have to try to make your system work for him. What does that mean for us? I have no idea what Getsy really would like as his "ideal" QB or likely better expressed as what attributes he puts a premium on.
One thing that drives me up the wall about fan talk on draft and FA is the idea that "here are the best players at this position" and the assumption that it does not matter where that player goes into what system and with what teammates. They think their ranking is the same for all teams... plug and play. Most players simply are not like that. Someone will thrive in a system and struggle in another.
With that in mind, I really don't have a strong opinion on what we should do with the QB question. The only thing I can say with confidence is that we can't just roll back in with AOC, though I also don't rule him out as being able to continue to develop into an effective NFL starter. He showed enough to say that the rookie has a range of being that but also with some struggles that he may be a solid back up on the low end.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I"m almost there on AOC too. Problem is he went 5-4 as the starter and this is QB no man's land. Won't get you into the playoffs, but it's prohibitively expensive (as we see now from going 5-4) to move into the elite QB territory. So we have to get lucky/expensive in the draft or Free Agency or trade if we want to upgrade. Yes AOC had no prep and was impressive given that, but DC's also had no film on him either and much less chance to gameplan for him. How many flash QB's have we seen that can't sustain when DC's catch up to them?
I'm very comfortable with AOC as worst-case/emergency option but hope we don't start the season with that enacted.
I'm very comfortable with AOC as worst-case/emergency option but hope we don't start the season with that enacted.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Good point, and this is the math I think needs done - what pick exactly can we squeeze from them? Can we pay part of the salary but not all? My point is I'm not 100% against it if it were to go down.
I don't want to come across as AOC basher, I appreciate the work he put in last season, but he just isn't good enough to get the Raiders where they need to go at this point in his career. He was never meant to be a starter last season. AP wasn't even remotely thought of as HC material at this time last year, but here we are. AP is the full time HC, great for him, but they have hired help for him (Marv Lewis, Philbin, kept PG etc). Now they (they being Davis & Telesco) have to get AP the players to be successful. Aiden is a great kid, hard worker, humble, decent arm, all that good stuff, but is he capable of leading the Raiders to the AFC West title? Or a wildcard berth? Maybe he is, WTHDIK? I personally think he's not good enough to do that at this point in his career. In my mind, hes a solid backup who the Raiders can trust to keep them in games. How many QBs started a game last year? Over 60.... They will need O'Connell's services trust me. But as a sure fire starter right now? IMO, no way,
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
I’m in the same boat. Nice guy. Did well. Tough situation. Showed flashes. Didn’t look overly impressive.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
No way he is a sure fire starter.
Could he be? Yes, I think there is reason to believe that could happen but it sure as heck doesn't mean he will. I saw enough from the rookie that was never supposed to see the field to hold out hope for him on that. And that doesn't mean we don't look elsewhere... it would be dumb to not look to bring in others.
kaso
Footballguy
How to you throw that list together and not mention the moustache?
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Name a team that AOC would start for immediately. That answers the question. The raiders need a qb.
rockaction
Footballguy
May I weigh in as a sort of neutral observer who watched Raiders games to see Davante Adams play? AOC isn't the guy, IMO. I don't even think he possesses great arm strength, which has been something you guys are talking about. I don't see him zipping the ball in there, really, and he's so immobile that he needs a bit of a gun to accomplish things. I saw a lot of guys open last year that weren't getting the ball. But that's my non-scout, television angle assessment of it. So take that for what it's worth.
Now, he's young and you can improve arm strength and his knowledge of defenses will only get better, but some of those games? Woof. That MN game was especially bad, and MN didn't have that great of a defense overall. That was borderline embarrassing—almost as if AOC just got outclassed by a defense. He looked awful.
I admit I'm biased in that I'd like to see a gunslinger that falls in love with Adams before they ship Davante off to the metaphorical glue factory, so that's something to consider. But my honest assessment is that AOC is not the guy, at least yet. That said, who is really available? I'm not sold of Fields. I mean, Cousins would be nice, but that's a ton of money that you'd tie up in him. Wilson is something I don't see happening. So who, then? That's your million dollar question.
Good luck.
Now, he's young and you can improve arm strength and his knowledge of defenses will only get better, but some of those games? Woof. That MN game was especially bad, and MN didn't have that great of a defense overall. That was borderline embarrassing—almost as if AOC just got outclassed by a defense. He looked awful.
I admit I'm biased in that I'd like to see a gunslinger that falls in love with Adams before they ship Davante off to the metaphorical glue factory, so that's something to consider. But my honest assessment is that AOC is not the guy, at least yet. That said, who is really available? I'm not sold of Fields. I mean, Cousins would be nice, but that's a ton of money that you'd tie up in him. Wilson is something I don't see happening. So who, then? That's your million dollar question.
Good luck.
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