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I don't know your roster/starter requirements are, but out of your RBs, the one I feel most confident in for the year is Drake. I looked a a handful of my drafts (TFC, FPC & MFL10) and didn't see any where Drake dropped past round 4. I'd say you got really lucky there. Obviously your WRs are outstanding, but I'm just not sure about your RBs. Good luck!
Well you stole RBs and the rest of your league should feel shame that they gave you this draft. According to Draft Calculator (12 team PPR), here’s your RBs ADP...
That doesn’t change that they gave you amazing picks that much. For a 10 team PPR...
lol no you aren’t. You are right that I got crazy lucky. I’ll try going zero RB in another and post how it goes.
True and last year we saw passing more spread out. Spread offense means spread the passing attempts. There’s only a handful of WRs that are going to be the focus of their offense and be targeted like such. Does that make those few top WRs even more valuable than years past?
As best ball brethren, we know that zero RB is easier in best ball because we never have to pick a starter. The other thing is that a big week is more valuable because it is total points and not a head to head league. I just wanted to make sure that non-best ball people understand that bit of context to your post. Those RBs a lot stronger when in that consideration.
I'm pretty sure the opposite is true. With injuries and such at running back being what it is, having the aid of the waiver wire can help drastically. Moreso than with any other position.
14 rounds into a 12 team PPR now....those RBs were taken MUCH earlier then this. Ingram went 5.12, Drake at 4.8, Miller at 5.11.
Yeah perhaps so. I don't necessarily love this team. I just wanted to post an example of what is possible. As mentioned above, the lack of a waiver wire and trading certainly handicap a best ball team. Especially with only 20 roster spots. But I get what you're saying and it's definitely worth pointing out. I sort of assumed since I said MFL10 that people knew that meant best ball.
I agree & can't believe you got them when you did. It happens though & you took advantage. nice work.
This is it. I've always rolled my eyes at generalized drafting strategies. Every year there are a few key value plays*. I just craft my draft around those guys. Auction has made this even easier. If I feel confident about a few value guys, I basically craft my strategy around the premise of something like: I'll pay 4% for my WR2, 3% for my RB2, and 3% for my TE1 (just an example and each of those is a specific player with an AAV of around those percentages)... from there you can make some interesting draft options. If I happen to see multiple RB values one year then my draft will technically be a zero-RB approach, but it's merely a coincidence.
This strategy is the only strategy that works. In fact, every other strategy requires this in order to work.
The point is that people should be focusing on talent and situation rather than following some drafting formula.
Even the best experts aren’t very good at that. It is pretty clear to me that nobody knows which players will be good and which won’t in any given season.
I don't think it's that hard to figure out who will be good if you do research based on talent (the player and those around him), opportunity, change in offensive system, etc.
There are a lot of chance occurrences which makes it a probability game. To me, fantasy football is a little like blackjack. You've got the people who are counting cards, the people who are simply playing by the chart, and then the fools who play by their gut. The probabilities vary by house rules and number of decks, but for this example let's say the card counter has a 51% chance of winning, the chart player is at 48%, and the gut player is like 40%. In the long run the card counter is the only one that will make money, but in the course of a single hour it is very possible the guy hitting on 17 when the dealer is showing a 6 is actually winning and the guy counting cards is losing. Same thing happens with fantasy football in any given 16 game season. Nobody could predict Rodgers' injury or the total collapse of the Oakland offense. Before Ware's injury nobody could've predicted Hunt's 91% snap share. Nobody could've predicted Kamara's breakout with Ingram around. I know every player has a cult following, but these people who blindly predict breakouts are akin to a broken clock being right twice a day. If you search their history, I'm sure they've said the same thing about many flame outs. Just check the "bet your house" thread. Those players are the gut players in blackjack. They'll get lucky just enough times to think their gut feelings are actually some sort of crystal ball.Ilov80s said:
Could not like this enough. This forum is polluted with 'this guy is the next great thing' threads, so of course a couple of them are right but most of them are wrong.
That was the point. No matter what strategy you use if you don't pick the right players it really doesn't matter. The strategy can be sound but if you screw up the players you are taking it will look like the strategy doesn't work. The only thing that works is when you pick the right players regardless of the strategy you use.
I disagree with that. It’s more complicated than right players and wrong players. Also there are ways to improve the odds you draft those “right” players.
Sure....You can research and study. Be informed and watch tape. Lots of things to improve your knowledge so you make better choices but in the end you can't control injuries or other factors that cause players to underperform. You can make educated guesses and hope they perform as you expect them to. But in the end if you make wrong choices (for whatever the reason) you will most likely not be successful for that year even if your strategy was sound. Sure there are times when schedule luck might help you and your team wins because you play a weak schedule with underperforming players but by and large if you make the wrong choices on players you will not be successful.
I just want to point out that these two things are mutually exclusive. I watch games for fun, and to track how my teams are doing, but I have never broken down video or attempted to learn the finer points of route running or blocking schemes.
I didn't mean that- ofcourse being informed is good. Still, someone could just open up a draft app or download an FBG, Yahoo, Rotoworld or whatever cheatsheat the night of the draft without having done any research and still have a successful draft. Zero RB is an actual strategy. It can still fail ofcourse, but the entire premise of zero RB is that we are going to make lots of bad picks because we aren't good at predicting the outcomes of the season. For example, if a PPR league starts 2RB/3 WR/1TE /1 Flex and you start your draft WR/WR/WR/TE/WR/WR/WR. You have 2 extra WRs to help cover your team in case an earlier WR busts or gets hurt (which we know will happen). Plus it increases the odds that you draft a difference making WR since you have more of them on your team. So your WR core will be able to handle injries and busts better than most and potentially even during bye weeks you are able to field the best WR lineup in the league. It is also saying that every team is weak somewhere and I will choose to be weak at RB because the RB position is very volatile and as the year goes on other teams highly drafted RBs will bust or get hurt which allows me to try to scoop up their WW replacements. It is an aggressive and dangerous strategy, but it is an actual strategy unlike "draft the right players".
My only point was that whatever strategy you use you must pick the right players to be successful. I also said that using a strategy and picking the wrong players doesn't necessarily mean the strategy in itself was a bad strategy.
That's great. 
