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4 Reasons "zero RB theory" fails in reality - Agree or Disagree? (2 Viewers)

Perfectly said, and I concur. 

Reading many of the preseason articles on ZRB, they leaned far more heavily on the breakout RBs being key to success, as though anyone doing this was virtually guaranteed to get the next DJ or TH.  

So far from the "pro" side, yours is the most well reasoned argument. 

Did you employ this strategy? 
You want a mixture of high floor low ceiling guys like Shane Vereen, Shaun Draughn, Chris Thompson along with the possible breakout guys.   The reason the second group is talked about more is because the first group is boring.   We all know who those guys are.

Just as an aside,  You keep mentioning David Johnson.  Last year I ended up with him on a lot of my teams.  The reason was because watching the games I could see that he was a better RB than Chris Johnson and sooner or later he would get the job so I was preemptively stashing him.   That is part of the strategy as well.  You need to have confidence in your ability to spot talent.

 
You can take any strategy to extremes (and RB-RB-RB-RB-RB was meant to be a parody of the other extreme). I assume your OP was referencing Siegele's article.(http://rotoviz.com/2013/11/zero-rb-antifragility-and-the-myth-of-value-based-drafting/) Not that it is necessarily gospel but he spelled it out as

Also if he says Gio is the best Zero RB target for 2016 I think that means guys in late 5th (FFC has Gio at 5.11 in PPR) are fair game for the strategy, at least according to his interpretation.

Part of the strategy has to be if you have stud WR/TE you don't need to waste picks on WR/TE when all the Zero RB targets are still on the board.
Understood. But that brings up another potential flaw to ZRB: IMO that strategy also makes you more predictable. 

As was pointed out, Siegele's going to have 0 RBs on his roster for 4 (as least) rounds.

In competitive leagues I would expect the teams around him to have punished him by snaking the value pick RBs in the 5-6-7-8 rounds. 

I play in low dollar local leagues and we're that cutthroat, so yeah - seems like other owners did him some favors. 

If you draft in a manner that makes you picks predictable, you're seemingly setting yourself up for failure. but only if your league-mates are paying attention to the teams around them, which I concede doesn't always happen. 

 
Just as an aside,  You keep mentioning David Johnson.  Last year I ended up with him on a lot of my teams.  The reason was because watching the games I could see that he was a better RB than Chris Johnson and sooner or later he would get the job so I was preemptively stashing him.   That is part of the strategy as well.  You need to have confidence in your ability to spot talent.
Only because Johnson, Hightower and Freeman are the most cited examples in the ZRB articles I'd read. 

And while you're correct that you have to be able to spot talent, it was also damn lucky that the Ellington/Cjohnson owners didn't already have him as a handcuff (as happened in both my leagues last year)

and in this day & age of instant information & a million experts putting out a ton of content, you don't necessarily have to be Johnny on the spot with a reel reel watching game film every week - hell, I get more out of the daily FBG update email than anything and it just shows up in my daily inbox. 

And that's 1 of 100 resources available online. 

Not putting down or questioning your acumen in talent evaluation - just saying its a lot easier than it used to be to discover the diamonds in the rough. 

 
The way football is RT now I totally agree with you that getting a few of those key stud every down backs (especially in a standard scoring league like mine) is crucial BC they are rare.  

You want to be the one who gets sick production from that rare 3 down back while everyone else is floundering at the position.  Also the wr position this year goes as deep as Ron jeremy. 

This year was the first in about 3 years that I drafted a Rb in the first RD and I went in knowing I was going to go Rb heavy throughout the first 9-10 rounds!

i ended up with David johnson, jamaal Charles, hill, Blount, Crowell, and michael.  When Charles comes back online I will have the far and away best 3 starting RBS in the league and a huge statistical advantage over the rest of my league mates, most of which only have 3 start worthy RBS on their rosters and weak ones at that. 

My starting wrs are just fine too: cooks, floyd, djax and I rounded it off with upside in Kevin white me Eli Rogers. My Wrs will be slightly streaky but they have as much week to week upside as any other team. 

I went qb late and got stafford and Winston.  2 top 10 qbs and my hunch is one will finish top 5.  

I Waited until the 14th RD and got Dwayne Allen as my te who is poised for a top 8 or higher season if he stays healthy. 

I picked like 5 or 6 RBS in the first 10 rounds and guys were laughing at me. 

Now im the one laughing watching them start jeremy Kerley, robert Kelly, Shane vereen, and kamar Aiken in their flex spots while I start jeremy hill or Blount or Crowell.  

Week 2 hasn't even happened yet and one owner already came knocking for Crowell.  

I don't think it's appropriate to say that zero Rb never works.  3 years ago it worked well for me but the league was different then.  More solid RBS to choose from in later rounds. 

This year in particular to me screamed to go Rb heavy in the first several rounds while others scooped up Wrs and I'm very happy with the results.  

 
Perfectly said, and I concur. 

Reading many of the preseason articles on ZRB, they leaned far more heavily on the breakout RBs being key to success, as though anyone doing this was virtually guaranteed to get the next DJ or TH.  

So far from the "pro" side, yours is the most well reasoned argument. 

Did you employ this strategy? 
No I don't. I actually had a discussion with Biabreakable in one of the Anarchy league threads about how I was planning to go RB heavy this year. 

I have in the past but like most others I just kind of let the draft come to me. Draft plans are like chess strategies, it's usually better to wait until you see the opening moves. Then use the best plan that you see available. I don't want to derail the thread into general draft strategy talk though. 

 
No I don't. I actually had a discussion with Biabreakable in one of the Anarchy league threads about how I was planning to go RB heavy this year. 

I have in the past but like most others I just kind of let the draft come to me. Draft plans are like chess strategies, it's usually better to wait until you see the opening moves. Then use the best plan that you see available. I don't want to derail the thread into general draft strategy talk though. 
Love what you said and yes that is how I approach every draft. I always go in with a preferred street but ready to scrap that strategy of things don't go the way I planned early.  Gotta be flexible.  

 
Only because Johnson, Hightower and Freeman are the most cited examples in the ZRB articles I'd read. 

And while you're correct that you have to be able to spot talent, it was also damn lucky that the Ellington/Cjohnson owners didn't already have him as a handcuff (as happened in both my leagues last year)

and in this day & age of instant information & a million experts putting out a ton of content, you don't necessarily have to be Johnny on the spot with a reel reel watching game film every week - hell, I get more out of the daily FBG update email than anything and it just shows up in my daily inbox. 

And that's 1 of 100 resources available online. 

Not putting down or questioning your acumen in talent evaluation - just saying its a lot easier than it used to be to discover the diamonds in the rough. 
I would put it the other way,  it is a lot harder than it used to be to discover the diamonds in the rough.   You have to be better at it than all of the so called experts.   That's what I enjoy about FF - the challenge.    I hear a lot of people saying it is less fun than it used to be because of all the information out there.   For me, that's what makes it more fun.   It's more challenging.

 
Like any other strategy Zero RB only works if you pick the right players. If you were in FFPC and somehow managed to draft Dez, Keenan Allen, D.Thomas, you are probably feeling pretty hopeless right now regardless of the RBs you picked later. Conversely, if you lucked out with A.Brown, A.Cooper, B.Cooks, you are feeling pretty good.

Zero RB really only works in PPR scoring and only if you hit on every stud WR pick. At least one of your RBs usually ends up coming from the waiver wire.

 
I would put it the other way,  it is a lot harder than it used to be to discover the diamonds in the rough.   You have to be better at it than all of the so called experts.   That's what I enjoy about FF - the challenge.    I hear a lot of people saying it is less fun than it used to be because of all the information out there.   For me, that's what makes it more fun.   It's more challenging.
I am inclined to agree, and I see it more these days as different ways of interpreting the flood information that's out there.  I used to get mad about the amount of info that's spoon fed to managers. 

But even with those articles, you can still look at ADP, and watch preseason, and gather your own info among all the expert talk, and still identify bargains.  But you're spot on - it's far more challenging to identify those players, but I enjoy the challenge and it's more satisfying when you hit gold.  

In short, since everyone's got the tea leaves, it's all how you read them. 

 
Also even before the season started, it was clear that having a top 3 pick was a huge advantage for zero RB strategy or any strategy for that matter. You could draft Brown, Julio, or OBJ and then scoop up two more stud WR on the turn. And you would still find two decent RBs on the 4/5 turn. However, if you drafted pick #12, the strategy was very challenging to implement (if you drafted in a league of experts) as the WR value dried up quickly before the 3/4 turn. Fitz was about all that was left at that point if you were lucky. I kept getting the #12 pick in FFPC and it sucked drafting from that spot this year.

 
Also even before the season started, it was clear that having a top 3 pick was a huge advantage for zero RB strategy or any strategy for that matter. You could draft Brown, Julio, or OBJ and then scoop up two more stud WR on the turn. And you would still find two decent RBs on the 4/5 turn. However, if you drafted pick #12, the strategy was very challenging to implement (if you drafted in a league of experts) as the WR value dried up quickly before the 3/4 turn. Fitz was about all that was left at that point if you were lucky. I kept getting the #12 pick in FFPC and it sucked drafting from that spot this year.
Draft position is an excellent point - I hadn't even considered that impact on ZRB.

Had I drawn pick #12, at the turn I was considering WR-WR, but more for the advantage of having 2 solid RBs make it back at 3.12/4.01. But more realistically I would have gone WR/RB since at the time of that draft Elliott was still falling to the end of the round

 
Also even before the season started, it was clear that having a top 3 pick was a huge advantage for zero RB strategy or any strategy for that matter. You could draft Brown, Julio, or OBJ and then scoop up two more stud WR on the turn. And you would still find two decent RBs on the 4/5 turn. However, if you drafted pick #12, the strategy was very challenging to implement (if you drafted in a league of experts) as the WR value dried up quickly before the 3/4 turn. Fitz was about all that was left at that point if you were lucky. I kept getting the #12 pick in FFPC and it sucked drafting from that spot this year.
I drafted the 3spot and STILL took David Johnson over Julio and didn't even look back. I'm in a standard league so that evens the playing field.   I'll always take a stud 3 down back over any wr not named Antonio brown. 

 
Draft position is an excellent point - I hadn't even considered that impact on ZRB.

Had I drawn pick #12, at the turn I was considering WR-WR, but more for the advantage of having 2 solid RBs make it back at 3.12/4.01. But more realistically I would have gone WR/RB since at the time of that draft Elliott was still falling to the end of the round
Yes I went WR/RB every time at #12. Usually Allen Robinson + RB. If AR wasn't there, it was RB/RB.

 
I'm sure my take is overly simplistic but as I see it, loading up on WRs is great but you can only start so many of them. I find "interchangeable" WRs more plentiful than RBs. At 12 I went RB/WR and straddled the two positions wherever possible...

 
Doesn't it all kind of depend on identifying (AND ACQUIRING, very important) mid-rounders that will bust out at one or two positions and counter-balancing them with so-called studs at other positions in the early rounds?

Or, you could overthink it.

 
I think its also important to take into consideration that "draft strategies" are only as good as the situations theyre applied in, regardless of said strategy and whether or not that is how  you prefer to approach it.

If the other owners are drafting with the same strategy as you intend to, its going to likely make your approach less optimal, and you should consider another approach.

There is no magic draft formula imo.

I like this thread because it reminds me quite a bit about my feelings toward ADP data, and how I feel like its generally flawed but people use it as a guide as opposed to analyzing a situation on their own.

 
I think its also important to take into consideration that "draft strategies" are only as good as the situations theyre applied in, regardless of said strategy and whether or not that is how  you prefer to approach it.

If the other owners are drafting with the same strategy as you intend to, its going to likely make your approach less optimal, and you should consider another approach.

There is no magic draft formula imo.

I like this thread because it reminds me quite a bit about my feelings toward ADP data, and how I feel like its generally flawed but people use it as a guide as opposed to analyzing a situation on their own.
I guess in a way, I don't really have a "strategy" per say when I draft. I have an idea of players I want to grab, but I mainly let the draft come to me. Sounds cliché, I know, but that's usually what I do. In one of my leagues, TEs were flying off the board quicker than I anticipated. Instead of giving in and chasing a TE for the sake of taking one, I kept waiting and waiting and ended up with Martellus Bennett. Yes, TE is a weak spot, but I feel like my WR, RB, and QB spots are stronger because I waited.

And I agree with ADP. It's a nice tool, but I've noticed most in my leagues don't pay a ton of attention to it.

 
And I agree with ADP. It's a nice tool, but I've noticed most in my leagues don't pay a ton of attention to it.
Not to get too far off of topic, but IMO that gives you an advantage. If you're more familiar with the ADP data coming from 100s or even 1000s of drafts, it gives you a leg up on anyone who isn't. Similar to the pre-draft rankings of any given site.  Even if you wildly disagree with the rankings, you'll want to have them on hand, because more times than not, several members of your league will be printing them and using them as a draft sheet. By studying that, and identifying potential reaches, bargains & busts (in your opinion, of course) you'll have an advantage over others in your league who go by them as gospel.  

I look at those like I would a knife and a fork - my own research is the cow. It's up to me to cook a good steak, and those are the tools I use to slice & dice it into nice bite sized pieces. Of course, sometimes I suck at this, but at least I have good process. 

;)  

 
The whole "zero RB" concept is an outdated term, just like the "three down back". I could care less if my RB is a "three down back". If he's on a team that throws to RBs (KC/Det) on 1st and 2nd down, who cares if they play on third downs? FF is in large part built on statistics and probabilities, and as such people like to make sweeping generalizations like "3rd year WR" that are eventually revealed as outdated and no longer relevant.

All "zero RB" means to me is that you are willing to forgo the premium to secure a "3 down back" (pffft). The whole premise behind the strategy is that stud WRs are much more difficult to find via FA or WW whereas RBs are basically plug and play as long as the offense is right. (Deangelo williams, spencer ware, etc...)

 
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I like how you waited until after week 1 so you could cherry-pick your top 3 RBs...leaving Gurley out because he looked bad in week 1.

Even despite the above...great read.

 
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The whole "zero RB" concept is an outdated term, just like the "three down back". I could care less if my RB is a "three down back". If he's on a team that throws to RBs (KC/Det) on 1st and 2nd down, who cares if they play on third downs? FF is in large part built on statistics and probabilities, and as such people like to make sweeping generalizations like "3rd year WR" that are eventually revealed as outdated and no longer relevant.

All "zero RB" means to me is that you are willing to forgo the premium to secure a "3 down back" (pffft). The whole premise behind the strategy is that stud WRs are much more difficult to find via FA or WW whereas RBs are basically plug and play as long as the offense is right. (Deangelo williams, spencer ware, etc...)
I think you're oversimplifying a bit.  I agree with your premise about a "3-down back" in the context you're stating, however I do not believe that is the generally understood definition of the term. 

The true "3-down back" or more accurately described "workhorse back" is more typically defined as what used to be called a "feature back" - e.g. the offense "featured" the running back position, to the point that the offense moved through the RB. The order of the day was ball control + defense, and the running back was the premium position on the field, thus the premium position sought after in FFB communities. 

Due to the evolution of the NFL towards a passing game (which rules changes have had a lot to do with) and the evolution of the OC's who game-plan more towards a short and intermediate passing game, using dump-offs and screens (like the DET offense you describe) the landscape of FFB has changed as well. Where in the past you'd have as many as 20 "feature backs" in the NFL, with better (LT2, Terrell Davis, Sean Alexander, Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson, Jamaal Lewis, etc, etc, etc ) and worse (Fragile Fred Taylor, etc) options, nowdays you have maybe 3-4 teams that truly "feature" a RB. 

That, in my opinion, makes these true rare feature backs far more valuable than any RBBC back. Picking the right one can still provide you with a tremendous advantage at the RB position when playing against a team that's light on RBs. 

Your example of Ware & DeAnkelo Williams is off-base - neither were plucked off waivers this year, both were mid-round draft picks in every mock and league I drafted in, with both going a full round ahead of ADP in both of my $ leagues because their roles were known well before the season started.  Better examples may be Theo Riddick (who I drafted in the 10th round as my RB4) and Coleman, who went in the 12th.

That said, it's still not a great example, since both those players were drafted in most every league - and with more and more fantasy managers targeting their own handcuffs as well as the backups on just about every team, and with more and more people buying in to the "ZRB" strategy, I would suggest that the FFB landscape has changed to the point that it's getting much much harder to just pluck up a "plug and play" RB during the season. 

Looking at the FA list and rosters in both of my $ leagues, every RB worth rostering is rostered. Every backup is rostered. And several speculative RBs are also rostered. If anyone goes down with injury, there will be no one to pick up in either of those leagues. 

So while I respect your opinions, I disagree with your poo poo-ing the feature back - in my humble opinion, it remains the single most valuable position. David Johnson owners have a huge advantage in any format this year, but especially in PPR. I was pretty psyched to get him 1.04 in one league and super pissed when in my other league I landed 1.03 and it went DJohnson -> A.Brown -> me.  Julio Jones is a nice fall-back, but in my opinion the dropoff from those two was significant. I almost took Lamar Miller there, and in hindsight wish that I had. 

 
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I like how you waited until after week 1 so you could cherry-pick your top 3 RBs...leaving Gurley out because he looked bad in week 1.

Even despite the above...great read.
What an odd response. And not at all true. I personally had Gurley as a "DND" this year based on the Rams and their QB. 

There was no deliberate waiting, nor did I "cherry pick" anything.

I posted when I did because that's when I was inspired to post about it, and I posted about the top 3 feature backs because that's who I've had ranked as my top 3 feature backs for months. 

No need to be insulting, regardless. 

 
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3-4 teams have a feature back? 

If you use 200 carries as the mark of a feature back, 15 backs hit hat last year compared to 24 in 2005.

Its obviously changed but not to the extreme being argued.

The difference now is I almost always want to take 3 WRs out of my first four picks so that I can flex a WR. Get one top notch RB then gamble that you can find that high end RB2 on the wire or with a late draft pick.

I won a league last year taking Gronk, Julio, Mike Evans, and Allen Robinson first four picks with Gurley in the 6th, and Cam really late. 

As some of you have said, just have to hit on the RB bargains in those middle rounds.

 
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3-4 teams have a feature back? 

If you use 200 carries as the mark of a feature back, 15 backs hit hat last year compared to 24 in 2005.

Its obviously changed but not to the extreme being argued.

The difference now is I almost always want to take 3 WRs out of my first four picks so that I can flex a WR. Get one top notch RB then gamble that you can find that high end RB2 on the wire or with a late draft pick.
In the true "20+ carries + receptions + GL"

i guess it's closer to 10 if you count Lacy, Forte, Foster, Ingram and a few others....

tough to say after 1 week. Sorry, I meant more in relation to the preseason draft rankings for 1st round RBs as the context, but I concede there are more than 3.

hell, Gurley is technically a feature back - just in a terrible situation. 

 
Good thread.

I don't really think there's an answer.  As Bloom says, every drafting method works, if you draft the right guys.

I like 0-RB in PPR.  In theory, because you can always get RBs that help off the waiver wire.  Also because pass-catching backs you can get in mid rounds tend to be more stable than WRs you get in those rounds.  The difference in points that Riddick or Woodhead score, compared to a Martin or Lacy, week by week, isn't that different.  

 Mentioning the WSIS question, I don't worry about that because I feel like if I go RB early, I have the same question about my mid round WRs.  Six of one, half dozen of the other.

The bigger question is, to my mind, what's the answer when everyone is going 0-RB?  

Good reads in here.

 
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Gurley will be fine. 
I think they need a quarterback  change for that to happen… And perhaps a loosening of the definition of "fine"

 If I were a Gurley owner, I'd be very pleased with RB2 numbers for this year. 

Its pretty ugly.  Not saying they can't improve, but it looks like an uphill battle right now.  I don't think the 49ers are as good as the Rams made them look  on Monday night. And I'm a 49ers fan. 

 
What an odd response. And not at all true. I personally had Gurley as a "DND" this year based on the Rams and their QB. 

There was no deliberate waiting, nor did I "cherry pick" anything.

I posted when I did because that's when I was inspired to post about it, and I posted about the top 3 feature backs because that's who I've had ranked as my top 3 feature backs for months. 

Have you considered actually contributing something to the topic? Might be refreshing. 
:lmao:

 
If you didn't go Zero-RB, then IMO you needed a plan at WR.  Because you knew several guys WERE going Zero-WR, and could make a bet that three of the top four picks were thinking about that strategy, because starting your team Odell-Cooper-Cooks, or Julio-Marshall-Hilton was a nice start.  

So you better have had some targets at their ADP at WR.  Maybe Sharpe, or Diggs.  But you needed to be armed with getting mid round WRs you liked a lot to outperform their ADP.  

 
If you didn't go Zero-RB, then IMO you needed a plan at WR.  Because you knew several guys WERE going Zero-WR, and could make a bet that three of the top four picks were thinking about that strategy, because starting your team Odell-Cooper-Cooks, or Julio-Marshall-Hilton was a nice start.  

So you better have had some targets at their ADP at WR.  Maybe Sharpe, or Diggs.  But you needed to be armed with getting mid round WRs you liked a lot to outperform their ADP.  
Or you could take a balanced approach.

top of the draft (picks 1-4) you could end up with a DJohnson/M.Evans or a ABrown/Ingram or JJones/McCoy 1-2 punch and still do very well.

Guys like Cobb and Moncrief, Maclin, JMatthews, Baldwin all available in the 3-4 round range, allowing you to invest early in a RB and still get 2 very effective WRs.

in mocking I attempted zero RB, RB-heavy and balanced and my best teams had the balanced approach, so that was what I went with this year.

Next year may be different. It's so dynamic year to year. 

 
I think you're oversimplifying a bit.  I agree with your premise about a "3-down back" in the context you're stating, however I do not believe that is the generally understood definition of the term. 

The true "3-down back" or more accurately described "workhorse back" is more typically defined as what used to be called a "feature back" - e.g. the offense "featured" the running back position, to the point that the offense moved through the RB. The order of the day was ball control + defense, and the running back was the premium position on the field, thus the premium position sought after in FFB communities. 

Due to the evolution of the NFL towards a passing game (which rules changes have had a lot to do with) and the evolution of the OC's who game-plan more towards a short and intermediate passing game, using dump-offs and screens (like the DET offense you describe) the landscape of FFB has changed as well. Where in the past you'd have as many as 20 "feature backs" in the NFL, with better (LT2, Terrell Davis, Sean Alexander, Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson, Jamaal Lewis, etc, etc, etc ) and worse (Fragile Fred Taylor, etc) options, nowdays you have maybe 3-4 teams that truly "feature" a RB. 

That, in my opinion, makes these true rare feature backs far more valuable than any RBBC back. Picking the right one can still provide you with a tremendous advantage at the RB position when playing against a team that's light on RBs. 

Your example of Ware & DeAnkelo Williams is off-base - neither were plucked off waivers this year, both were mid-round draft picks in every mock and league I drafted in, with both going a full round ahead of ADP in both of my $ leagues because their roles were known well before the season started.  Better examples may be Theo Riddick (who I drafted in the 10th round as my RB4) and Coleman, who went in the 12th.

That said, it's still not a great example, since both those players were drafted in most every league - and with more and more fantasy managers targeting their own handcuffs as well as the backups on just about every team, and with more and more people buying in to the "ZRB" strategy, I would suggest that the FFB landscape has changed to the point that it's getting much much harder to just pluck up a "plug and play" RB during the season. 

Looking at the FA list and rosters in both of my $ leagues, every RB worth rostering is rostered. Every backup is rostered. And several speculative RBs are also rostered. If anyone goes down with injury, there will be no one to pick up in either of those leagues. 

So while I respect your opinions, I disagree with your poo poo-ing the feature back - in my humble opinion, it remains the single most valuable position. David Johnson owners have a huge advantage in any format this year, but especially in PPR. I was pretty psyched to get him 1.04 in one league and super pissed when in my other league I landed 1.03 and it went DJohnson -> A.Brown -> me.  Julio Jones is a nice fall-back, but in my opinion the dropoff from those two was significant. I almost took Lamar Miller there, and in hindsight wish that I had. 
Did anybody draft Ware or Riddick last season? What about Rawls or McFadden? You're talking about guys that were the replacements LAST season. And surely there will undrafted replacement RBs that will do the same this season. I play in a 16 team league, so the cupboard is pretty bare every year in week one... and yet still there are undiscovered backup RBs that rise to prominence every year as adequate replacements (sometimes better than the incumbents they replace). 

There's a reason handcuffs exist for RBs but are irrelevant for WRs. Because very seldom do backup WRs come from anonymity to post WR1 type numbers, and yet it happens every year for RBs.

 
Did anybody draft Ware or Riddick last season? What about Rawls or McFadden? You're talking about guys that were the replacements LAST season. And surely there will undrafted replacement RBs that will do the same this season. I play in a 16 team league, so the cupboard is pretty bare every year in week one... and yet still there are undiscovered backup RBs that rise to prominence every year as adequate replacements (sometimes better than the incumbents they replace). 

There's a reason handcuffs exist for RBs but are irrelevant for WRs. Because very seldom do backup WRs come from anonymity to post WR1 type numbers, and yet it happens every year for RBs.
I agree, but I'm talking about both last year and this year. 

And in both my leagues, the Jamaal Charles owners handcuffed with Ware, and West was on a roster or two as a speculative add when Charles went down.

My point is that it seems like year after year more marginal RBs are being rostered - so who's really going to be there this year? 

I guess it can relate to this topic, but not really since ZRB drafters stack up on those guys.

that's why I started a separate topic about this. With more and more rosters dotted with marginal backs, will there really be any surprisingly elite RBs out of nowhere?  Seems much harder now than in the past....

 
I agree, but I'm talking about both last year and this year. 

And in both my leagues, the Jamaal Charles owners handcuffed with Ware, and West was on a roster or two as a speculative add when Charles went down.

My point is that it seems like year after year more marginal RBs are being rostered - so who's really going to be there this year? 

I guess it can relate to this topic, but not really since ZRB drafters stack up on those guys.

that's why I started a separate topic about this. With more and more rosters dotted with marginal backs, will there really be any surprisingly elite RBs out of nowhere?  Seems much harder now than in the past....
That answer is somewhere in one of the threads in the Shark Pool. Just have to read up and be ready to pounce on the right guy. 

 
I agree, but I'm talking about both last year and this year. 

And in both my leagues, the Jamaal Charles owners handcuffed with Ware, and West was on a roster or two as a speculative add when Charles went down.

My point is that it seems like year after year more marginal RBs are being rostered - so who's really going to be there this year? 

I guess it can relate to this topic, but not really since ZRB drafters stack up on those guys.

that's why I started a separate topic about this. With more and more rosters dotted with marginal backs, will there really be any surprisingly elite RBs out of nowhere?  Seems much harder now than in the past....
With more RB situations being murky, it makes sense that more "marginal" RBs are going to be rostered. But injuries, bye weeks, starter mediocrity, and "playing for next year" are constants every year that don't rear their ugly heads until the season progresses. It's still very early... 

 
With more RB situations being murky, it makes sense that more "marginal" RBs are going to be rostered. But injuries, bye weeks, starter mediocrity, and "playing for next year" are constants every year that don't rear their ugly heads until the season progresses. It's still very early... 
A fair point. I'm just not sure who's lurking - I guess there are practice squad guys - and players like Lynch & Spiller  Who could conceivably change the landscape   If they found themselves in a prominent role. 

 Those seem like longshots though.  More likely, and existing back up or handcuff will be promoted to a starting role. But it seems like all of those guys are roster to these days as compared to years past. 

 Do you agree that it is much more difficult now than it was in the past to find those guys? 

( relevant to this topic in that that is partly  A byproduct of ZRB drafting.)

 
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 Do you agree that it is much more difficult now than it was in the past to find those guys? 
If by "find" you mean stashing a guy, yes it is more difficult because more "backup" RBs are being rostered due to their use in a committee as well as the usefulness of "pass catching" RBs compared to their grinder/starter peers. 

But "finding" a guy is not that simple... If it were, then CJ Spiller would've gotten all the touches last season when Ingram went down, and Tim Hightower wouldn't even be a thing right now. Practice squad guys get called up to replace what we believe to be the obvious handcuffs every year. For every David Cobb, there's a Shaun Draughn.

 
1 it blindly goes after position and ignores actual value....
While I agree with this, playing devil's advocate I think the proponents of ZRB would argue that they're doing the opposite based on the preconceived notion that top TEs, WRs and possibly QBs are worth more. 

 
Bringing back an old threat here. Zero RB obviously has gone way out of style with the re-emergence of the RB and a huge dip in WR performance last year. Is it a fad or the new normal? Also is this the year to strike back with zero RB?

Here is an example in a 12 team PPR from the 4th slot:

1.  AB 

2. AJ Green

3. Baldwin

4. Golden Tate

5. Jimmy Graham

6. Drake

7. Mark Ingram

8. Lamar Miller

9. Ronald Jones 

10. Tarik Cohen

The rest is just whatever, taking favorite flyers and preferred late round QBs. Is this a good draft? An abysmal draft? Can this be a winning strategy this year? 

 
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Bringing back an old threat here. Zero RB obviously has gone way out of style with the re-emergence of the RB and a huge dip in WR performance last year. Is it a fad or the new normal? Also is this the year to strike back with zero RB?

Here is an example in a 12 team PPR from the 4th slot:

1.  AB 

2. AJ Green

3. Baldwin

4. Golden Tate

5. Jimmy Graham

6. Drake

7. Mark Ingram

8. Lamar Miller

9. Ronald Jones 

10. Tarik Cohen

The rest is just whatever, taking favorite flyers and preferred late round QBs. Is this a good draft? An abysmal draft? Can this be a winning strategy this year? 
I'd be curious what RBs would theoretically be on board in 4/5 (not doing redraft this year so unfamiliar) but I think going WR/RB combo in 4/5 and punting on TE, that's not a bad team at all. Missing a QB but ....

 
I'd be curious what RBs would theoretically be on board in 4/5 (not doing redraft this year so unfamiliar) but I think going WR/RB combo in 4/5 and punting on TE, that's not a bad team at all. Missing a QB but ....
If I remember correctly, the guys in the 4th were Penny, Ajayi, Derrick Henry, Guice. As for QB, in redraft, you can get guys like Ben, Rivers, Mahomes in the 11th round. 

 
profootballfocus.com just ran a story about this very subject..and I agree with you OP, I think Zero RB is a dead option..

there are a ton of WR's out there, but not a lot of RBs.and TE's are seemingly SCARCE this year. I would be more interested in stud RB 1st and 2nd round, best TE  available 3rd round, then WR's 4th and 5th round..who do you get at that point, Marvin Jones? you're picking WRs in the 40s ( 40th pick of the draft) there's a TON of talent out there at that time..

according to ADP provided by fantasyfootballcalculator.com , here are some of the WR's left in a PPR league, 

A. Robinson 4.05

D. Thomas 4.07

JJ Smith-Schuster 4.07

Amari Cooper 4.09

Alson Jeffrey 5.01

J. Landry 5.09

M. Jones 5.08

Brandin Cooks 5.05

Golden Tate 5.02

Diggs is on the cusp at 3.11.

point is there are a lot of serviceable WRs in the 4s/5s but not a lot of RBs, outside of Drake at 4.07 and Collins at 4.06 you have NOTHING worthwhile in the 4s/5s for RBs.

 

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