550 Comments Regarding Value Plays (1 Viewer)

[David Dodds]

We all know that a fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff + 18 prominent message board contributors to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should outperform their draft position.

Additionally we did the reverse to obtain overvalued players.

If you have a spare 10 hours, take a look:

18 Staff + 18 from the Boards Commenting on Value

But as cool as these articles are by themselves, these comments also appear in the outlook section of the Player Pages.

Muhsin Muhammad's Player Page

Folks, we are just getting started here as we integrate everything through the player pages. I will post all of this on the front page soon. I justed wanted to share with the board first since they played a huge part in making this a great article.

Special thanks to the following Message Board Members who contributed to this feature:

Bagger, Barry Jive and the Uptown Five, BassNBrew, Bloom, BostonFred, Couch Potato, diesel7982, EBF, Family Matters, Fullback Fro, GregR, Iwannabeacowboybaby, joffer, Jurb26, LHUCKS, SammyJankis, Tick, and Unlucky

 

[Jason Wood]

The integration into the Player Page Outlook is SICK

 

[LHUCKS]

 

[David Dodds]

I just gave Doug Drinen the green light. He is making all the comments go LIVE to the player pages any minute now.

 

[Doug Drinen]

The integration into the Player Page Outlook is SICK

Michael Vick's player page looks a bit comical now.

 

[LHUCKS]

The integration into the Player Page Outlook is SICK

Michael Vick's player page looks a bit comical now.

:staffVickrankingsrapidlydeclining:

 

[joffer]

biggest surprise to me is the idea that Steve Smith is OVERvalued at WR13.

 

[Couch Potato]

EBF thinks Roethlisberger is undervalued? Gee, what a surprise.

 

[David Dodds]

Next week, we will be asking these same 36 people to look for deep sleepers (players that are being drafted with an ADP of 150 or greater). This will provide even more quotes plus should help people when drafting in the later rounds.Hope everyone likes this stuff. We are excited to finally start connecting everything through the players.

 

[LHUCKS]

Most of the players I wrote up were amongst the top vote getters:QB Overvalued: #1 and #2 QB Undervalued: #4 and #6 RB Overvalued: #1 and #3RB Undervalued: #2 and #5WR Overvalued: #1 and #3WR Undervalued: #1 and #12TE Overvalued: #6TE Undervalued: #5 and #6

 

[BassNBrew]

The integration into the Player Page Outlook is SICK

Michael Vick's player page looks a bit comical now.

:staffVickrankingsrapidlydeclining:

I must be the only one who didn't see him as being overvalued.

 

[David Dodds]

That's what is good about having a lot of people do this exercise. The very top vote getters likely have wrong ADPs. Players like Muhammad that have 3 as undervalued and 5 as overvalued are probably about right (in regards to ADP).But when 3/4 of the entries say Vick is overvalued and no one thinks he is undervalued, then that is telling you something.It will be interesting to watch and see how many of these players move throughout the preseason.We will do this again in early August for our subscribers (closer to people's drafts).

 

[LHUCKS]

It was difficult for me to find much to criticize in the TE ADPs. It was like shooting fish in a barrel for the other positions though.Deep Sleepers will be a walk in the park as well. Hopefully we'll be using recent ADPs or guys like Samie Parker or Toefield are going to be on everybody's short list.Also, a lot of writeups on both sides of the Wiggins debate.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The integration into the Player Page Outlook is SICK

Michael Vick's player page looks a bit comical now.

:staffVickrankingsrapidlydeclining:

I must be the only one who didn't see him as being overvalued.

I don't think he's particularly overvalued, either. Gotta love the rushing yards, and the passing can only improve. I won't end up with him on any of my teams, because if I can't get Manning or Culpepper, I won't take any QB in the top 6 or 7 rounds. But if somebody made be take a QB just after Manning/Culpepper/McNabb were gone, I'd take Vick.My favorite page is DeShaun Foster's. It's sort of like Vick's, except one lone crazy staffer went against the grain and marked him undervalued.

 

[dirtyhalos]

Very impressed, keep up the good work guys.......now off to read every player page.......lol........see you next week

 

[Couch Potato]

Next week, we will be asking these same 36 people to look for deep sleepers (players that are being drafted with an ADP of 150 or greater). This will provide even more quotes plus should help people when drafting in the later rounds.

Hope everyone likes this stuff. We are excited to finally start connecting everything through the players.

I'm really looking forward to doing this one. I wasn't able to contribute to the over/under as much as I wanted to for reasons I won't get into here, but I'm already starting my sleeper list.Picking sleeps is fun. If you hit some you look like you know stuff. If you don't, well, that's why they were sleepers, right?

Psst... I hear there's a retired RB coming back to Miami. Get Csonka before I do!

 

[LHUCKS]

Very impressed, keep up the good work guys.......now off to read every player page.......lol........see you next week

You don't have to...you can see all the value writeups on one page with Dodds' initial link...links are at the top.David you may want to make the links a bit more obvious...they're somewhat hidden IMHO.

 

[Chase Stuart]

That's what is good about having a lot of people do this exercise. The very top vote getters likely have wrong ADPs. Players like Muhammad that have 3 as undervalued and 5 as overvalued are probably about right (in regards to ADP).

But when 3/4 of the entries say Vick is overvalued and no one thinks he is undervalued, then that is telling you something.

It will be interesting to watch and see how many of these players move throughout the preseason.

We will do this again in early August for our subscribers (closer to people's drafts).

Undervalued players with more than 10 voteslummer - 14 votes

J.J Arrington - 12

Kevin Jones - 11

Kennison - 15

Driver - 13

Rod Smith - 13

Overvalued players with more than 10 votes:

Vick - 24 votes

Foster - 11 votes (1 undervalued too)

Andre Johnson - 10 votes

 

[BassNBrew]

Very impressed, keep up the good work guys.......now off to read every player page.......lol........see you next week

You don't have to...you can see all the value writeups on one page with Dodds' initial link...links are at the top.David you may want to make the links a bit more obvious...they're somewhat hidden IMHO.

Ditto LHUCKS comment on finding the link. I'm missing this one and the o-line article. Wondering how many other articles I'm missing?

 

[Chris Smith]

Overvalued players with more than 10 votes:

Vick - 24 votes

Foster - 11 votes (1 undervalued too)

Andre Johnson - 10 votes

I am on a really small island it appears when it comes to Vick. I have already laid my thoughts out on why he has a good chance every year to be a top five quarterback and I would rather take him than most. Just his running yardage alone make him a top five pick with just a small improvement in his passing yardage. For a guy that already had a top five finish in his young career, he just does not get much respect from us 'experts'Vick stands out to me as the high risk/high reward kind of player that can help you dominate your league. I'll take a chance on him when the opportunity presents itself this year....

To those of you who contributed to the Value Picks article, great job. It is easily one of the more impressive articles ever put out and the linkage back to the player pages is wonderful!

Now back to the read I won't be getting any sleep tonight LOL

 

[BassNBrew]

"Unlucky" - Carolina was forced to pass a lot more last year due to injuries to all of their RBs. The defense also had a down year, forcing more late game passing. With the loss of Muhammad, the drafting of Shelton, and the return of Foster and Davis, Carolina figures to get back to running the ball much more. This will reduce Delhomme’s opportunities. He’s currently the #23 QB on my board.

Unless he get's injured...when hell freezes over.

 

[Bri]

Unlucky's not on the staff anymore?

 

[Bri]

biggest surprise to me is the idea that Steve Smith is OVERvalued at WR13.

why?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Unlucky's not on the staff anymore?

anymore?he was the captain of the Message Board team in last year's Survivor 1 league(s).

 

[Kleck.]

Who the hell is taking Jerry Porter that early to bump his ADP up to #18? Yikes.

 

[Bri]

Unlucky's not on the staff anymore?

anymore?he was the captain of the Message Board team in last year's Survivor 1 league(s).

OH I thought he was doing leagues for you guys or somesuch venture and became a staff member. My mistake

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Based simply on where Vick is being drafted, it's almost impossible for anyone to consider him as undervalued. After the big 3 QBs are gone, he seems to be the guy with the most upside because of his rushing ability, and I think that pushes him up to the #4/#5 QB area. But, this article was about picking the players who are most likely to underperform. I don't think many people would be surprised if Vick finished a year as the #1 ranked fantasy QB...but, it also wouldn't be a shock if he finished outside of the top-10. Thus, he's an easy choice here and is a high risk/high reward type of player. Most of the other top-10 QBs look pretty safe to finish in the same general area of where they are being drafted without falling too far.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Unlucky's not on the staff anymore?

anymore?he was the captain of the Message Board team in last year's Survivor 1 league(s).

OH I thought he was doing leagues for you guys or somesuch venture and became a staff member. My mistake

I remember talk of a merger there, but I don't think it ever worked out.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Who the hell is taking Jerry Porter that early to bump his ADP up to #18? Yikes.

that was the ADP that stood out to me the most as well.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Based simply on where Vick is being drafted, it's almost impossible for anyone to consider him as undervalued. After the big 3 QBs are gone, he seems to be the guy with the most upside because of his rushing ability, and I think that pushes him up to the #4/#5 QB area. But, this article was about picking the players who are most likely to underperform. I don't think many people would be surprised if Vick finished a year as the #1 ranked fantasy QB...but, it also wouldn't be a shock if he finished outside of the top-10. Thus, he's an easy choice here and is a high risk/high reward type of player. Most of the other top-10 QBs look pretty safe to finish in the same general area of where they are being drafted without falling too far.

 

[Waverider]

First of all, great work everyone. Even greater would be to run this survey again around or just after preseason, when most people are drafting, with the new ADP values. How many of the people who are doing mock drafts in May and June consume FBG content (they don't even have to be subscribers yet)? I'd guess a good percentage. So they read the Value Plays articles, and slowly but surely, values start to adjust. Take Vick for example. Here's his line since a week ago (5/26): 46. Michael Vick QB ATL 4.12.00 1.07 7.01 34Here's his line from the beginning of the year:43. Michael Vick QB ATL 4.07.98 1.07 8.00 123Not a big change, to be sure, but that includes the most recent drafts which show Vick's ADP skewing lower (unfortunately I don't see a way to get his ADP from the preceding 89 drafts). Has Vick's situation changed? Not really (ok, there's Price's retinal thingy...). Has there been more and more discussion in the collective FF conscious about how overvalued Vick is? Maybe. Would 24 experts surveyed still think Vick overvalued if his ADP slipped a round or even two later by the time his value is hashed out in articles and message boards all summer long? Alas, it's a sad symptom of the spreading of the FBG gospels. You wanna talk value though? How about this content for the measly subscription fee I'm paying.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Great stuff guys!! And great choices of the Board Members involved. I'm not sure you need anymore staff, but I count 10 guys there that should be at the top of the list if you do.

 

[LHUCKS]

Who the hell is taking Jerry Porter that early to bump his ADP up to #18?  Yikes.

that was the ADP that stood out to me the most as well.

I actually overlooked that one...way too high.

 

[Waverider]

That's what is good about having a lot of people do this exercise. The very top vote getters likely have wrong ADPs. Players like Muhammad that have 3 as undervalued and 5 as overvalued are probably about right (in regards to ADP).

But when 3/4 of the entries say Vick is overvalued and no one thinks he is undervalued, then that is telling you something.

It will be interesting to watch and see how many of these players move throughout the preseason.

We will do this again in early August for our subscribers (closer to people's drafts).

Oops. Duh. Maybe I should read through all the posts next time!

 

[Chase Stuart]

Who the hell is taking Jerry Porter that early to bump his ADP up to #18? Yikes.

that was the ADP that stood out to me the most as well.

Andre Johnson at #7 is right up there.I wonder who the 36 people think is better:

Donald Driver - ADP WR29, 13 undervalued votes, 0 overvalued votes

Jerry Porter - ADP WR18, 1 undervalued vote, 9 overvalued votes

Of the 18 staff rankings from the past week, eleven had Driver higher while seven had Porter higher.

 

[Mike Anderson]

First of all, great work everyone. Even greater would be to run this survey again around or just after preseason, when most people are drafting, with the new ADP values.

How many of the people who are doing mock drafts in May and June consume FBG content (they don't even have to be subscribers yet)? I'd guess a good percentage. So they read the Value Plays articles, and slowly but surely, values start to adjust.

Take Vick for example. Here's his line since a week ago (5/26):

46. Michael Vick QB ATL 4.12.00 1.07 7.01 34

Here's his line from the beginning of the year:

43. Michael Vick QB ATL 4.07.98 1.07 8.00 123

Not a big change, to be sure, but that includes the most recent drafts which show Vick's ADP skewing lower (unfortunately I don't see a way to get his ADP from the preceding 89 drafts). Has Vick's situation changed? Not really (ok, there's Price's retinal thingy...). Has there been more and more discussion in the collective FF conscious about how overvalued Vick is? Maybe.

Would 24 experts surveyed still think Vick overvalued if his ADP slipped a round or even two later by the time his value is hashed out in articles and message boards all summer long? Alas, it's a sad symptom of the spreading of the FBG gospels.

You wanna talk value though? How about this content for the measly subscription fee I'm paying.

From his Post above:

We will do this again in early August for our subscribers (closer to people's drafts).

 

[David Dodds]

We limited things to 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 2 TEs. I think if we would have asked for more WRs, everyone would have had Porter on their list too.We definitely will do this again as subscriber content (and will compare to recent ADPs). A lot will happen in the next weeks with injuries, holdouts, camp reports, etc that will also tweak things.Our big goal here was to show you how we plan on integrating everything to the player pages.These things will all be linked to the player pages during the season:- Game Recaps- Players in the News- Injury info- Waiver wire- Upgrades / Downgrades- Beyond the Basline Value Plays- Redzone, Target and Goal line stats- Weekly stats- Weekly projections- Game logs

 

[bagger.]

i just looked at mike vick's player page threw up, laughed, then threw up again. at 24 writers think vick is overrated."sharks" are snapping their ankles trying to undraft him.

 

[Couch Potato]

I find interesting some of the comparable comments made concerning players, providing food for thought beyond the obvious stats, even if you disagree with the conclusions. I'll note here that we had not seen each other's comments until posted to the MB tonight.

An example:

QB Drew Brees, San Diego Chargers

David Yudkin - Few teams in recent memory had the turnaround the Chargers had in 2004. However, their success may have been aided by a last place schedule. This year, the Bolts will face much stiffer competition. Brees averaged 178 passing yards against playoff teams vs. 228 against non-playoff foes. Against playoff teams, he had five TD passes and five INT in five games. Compare that to 22 TD passes and just two INTs in ten games against non-playoff teams. For the fantasy gurus, that’s 11.9 fantasy ppg vs. playoff teams and 20 ppg vs non-playoff teams. With a #11 ranking last year, even a slight drop-off in production will cause Brees to fall more than two spots.

"Couch Potato" - I am probably a minority of one here, but sell last year's amazing turnaround season to someone else. It was a fabulous year for the Chargers and for Brees, but I think it was an aberration and I'm not buying it this year. This is the same QB who, in his previous 27 games over two years, had 28/31 TDs to INTs (27/7 last year), 6.1 yards/attempt (7.9 last year), 59% completion pct (65% last year). He has no true #1 receiver, teams now have had an opportunity to game plan for Antonio Gates, and the AFC defenses of Hou, Ten, Jax, and Cle (eight TDs, zero INTs against them) will be replaced by those of NE, Pit, Buf, and Mia. Their brutal non-division schedule also includes Ind, NYJ, and Phi, and I expect to see about a 4-7 record when Philip Rivers takes over and finishes out the season. SD went 1-4 last year against playoff teams, 11-0 against the rest. Brees will not be on any of my rosters this season.

 

[bagger.]

I don't think many people would be surprised if Vick finished a year as the #1 ranked fantasy QB...

i will never post here again if he is the #1 fantasy qb in 2005.take that to the bank.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I don't think many people would be surprised if Vick finished a year as the #1 ranked fantasy QB...

i will never post here again if he is the #1 fantasy qb in 2005.take that to the bank.

I'm not saying 2005...just in general. The guy has the ability to run for 1000 yards and a bunch of TDs and that would give him a huge edge over Manning in FBG scoring before passing even entered into the equation.

 

[bagger.]

I don't think many people would be surprised if Vick finished a year as the #1 ranked fantasy QB...

i will never post here again if he is the #1 fantasy qb in 2005.take that to the bank.

I'm not saying 2005...just in general. The guy has the ability to run for 1000 yards and a bunch of TDs and that would give him a huge edge over Manning in FBG scoring before passing even entered into the equation.

"a bunch of TDs?"

he ran for 900+ yards last year and 3 TDs...that is on the EXTREME high end of what he can do on the ground.

bottom line he has never thrown for over 3k yards or over 16 TDs in his career...and he is the 4th QB taken???

favre throws for double the TDs and close to double the yards and is taken 3 rounds later than vick.

vick is all sizzle and no substance.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I don't think many people would be surprised if Vick finished a year as the #1 ranked fantasy QB...

i will never post here again if he is the #1 fantasy qb in 2005.take that to the bank.

I'm not saying 2005...just in general. The guy has the ability to run for 1000 yards and a bunch of TDs and that would give him a huge edge over Manning in FBG scoring before passing even entered into the equation.

"a bunch of TDs?"

he ran for 900+ yards last year and 3 TDs...that is on the EXTREME high end of what he can do on the ground.

bottom line he has never thrown for over 3k yards or over 16 TDs in his career...and he is the 4th QB taken???

favre throws for double the TDs and close to double the yards and is taken 3 rounds later than vick.

vick is all sizzle and no substance.

he ran for 8 TDs in 2002 and finished as the #3 fantasy QB.

 

[bagger.]

the worst part is...vick isn't even the most overvalued player there is...rhymes with wedgie pain. :X

 

[bagger.]

I don't think many people would be surprised if Vick finished a year as the #1 ranked fantasy QB...

i will never post here again if he is the #1 fantasy qb in 2005.take that to the bank.

I'm not saying 2005...just in general. The guy has the ability to run for 1000 yards and a bunch of TDs and that would give him a huge edge over Manning in FBG scoring before passing even entered into the equation.

"a bunch of TDs?"

he ran for 900+ yards last year and 3 TDs...that is on the EXTREME high end of what he can do on the ground.

bottom line he has never thrown for over 3k yards or over 16 TDs in his career...and he is the 4th QB taken???

favre throws for double the TDs and close to double the yards and is taken 3 rounds later than vick.

vick is all sizzle and no substance.

he ran for 8 TDs in 2002.

i know...and 700+ yardsrunning for 1k yards AND 8 TDs is a pipe dream.

he has only been a top 10 QB once.

and he's drafted as #4 year in year out.

if i owned this site, anyone who drafted him in the fifth round or sooner i would IP.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

while unlikely, it's still within the realm of possibility, and that is the reason he gets drafted so highly.

 

[bagger.]

while unlikely, it's still within the realm of possibility, and that is the reason he gets drafted so highly.

if the staff of this site is advocating drafting players who have been unable to replicate top 10 QB performance throughout their career at an inflated price while other proven QBs are available 3 rounds later because it is in the "realm of possibility" standards have changed.

monkeys coming out of my butt are in the realm of possibility. they'll be dancing on the 50 yard line when vick is the #1 qb in fantasy football.

 

[joffer]

while unlikely, it's still within the realm of possibility, and that is the reason he gets drafted so highly.

if the staff of this site is advocating drafting players who have been unable to replicate top 10 QB performance throughout their career at an inflated price while other proven QBs are available 3 rounds later because it is in the "realm of possibility" standards have changed.

monkeys coming out of my butt are in the realm of possibility. they'll be dancing on the 50 yard line when vick is the #1 qb in fantasy football.

you talk like he's been in the league for 10 years, one top 3 finish out of two full seasons isn't the worst % in the world.Edit: and he has NOT been drafted top 4 "year in and year out"

 

[David Dodds]

What exactly are we arguing about? 24 people said he was overrated. Isn't that what you are saying too Bagger? Although some people did not say it, no one said he was a steal at his current ADP. And with 24 votes saying he is overvalued, I would expect his ADP to drop a good round until he does something cool in the preseason and the hype starts up again...LOL

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

while unlikely, it's still within the realm of possibility, and that is the reason he gets drafted so highly.

if the staff of this site is advocating drafting players who have been unable to replicate top 10 QB performance throughout their career at an inflated price while other proven QBs are available 3 rounds later because it is in the "realm of possibility" standards have changed.

monkeys coming out of my butt are in the realm of possibility. they'll be dancing on the 50 yard line when vick is the #1 qb in fantasy football.

what are you talking about? I am not advocating anything. Just explaining his ADP and why people get tempted into drafting him where they do.he's played 2 full seasons in his career, and finished #3 in one of them. he's a young QB who is (allegedly) improving. obviously, almost everybody here thinks he's overvalued as the #4 QB, myself included. I just don't see many other great options at the #4 spot either. I think the dropoff after the top-3 is huge this year and if I miss out on one of them, I'm most likely going QBBC with guys in the Leftwich range.