Sigmund Bloom lays out his moves to make before the NFL Draft. Enjoy. https://www.footballguys.com/article/2024-6-dynasty-moves-to-make-before-the-draft
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6 Dynasty Moves To Make TODAY (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Other moves you'd make today before the draft?
Opportunities to exploit?
Opportunities to exploit?
Blick
Footballguy
I like this a lot. All we are hearing is that the RB aren't good. That may be true, but there will be some with great opportunity. DAL, LA, NYG, CAR, ARI, LV, and CIN are all good landing spots.
The flip side of this is that if the RBs start to move up (as they should), good WRs will fall.
stuckinthemuck
Footballguy
Adding to Sigmund’s RB wisdom, in general I like adding proven veterans whose trade value will be further depressed when rookie fever strikes over the next few days.
A good RB landing in Dallas will go by 1.7 in most 1QB leagues...If it is Brooks, it could be sooner
Agreed. It's so easy to get caught up in the shiny new things.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Nothing flashy and I can see people disagreeing; but I'd be buying Sam Darnold in SF leagues. He's currently ranked QB36; IMO laughably low for the current starter of the Vikings. His career opportunities so far have been with the dumpster fire Jets and dumpster fire Panthers. Spent last year learning from an actually good coach and staff and functional organization. And is now in a solid situation with one of, if not the best, WR in the league and playing behind an above average o-line. The offense they run is QB friendly as well. As much as I think the Vikes will draft a rookie QB, I think they make the right decision and keep him off the field the majority of this year. There's less than a 1% chance they get Williams or Daniels, so whoever they get IMO needs time to get acclimated to the league and will benefit much more from the bench than being thrown into the fire. And if they are thrown into the fire, I think there's a good chance they won't be lighting it up. For the cost of a mid 3rd round pick, getting a starting QB on a good team is basically unheard of in a SF league. At that price I think it's well worth the risk.
I go the other way sir. I'd move to 1.5 so you can be in the catbirds seat if a clearer cut RB1 emerges, like drafted by Dallas in round two, or someone like a Brian Thomas type goes to the Bills.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
If Dallas drafts Trey Benson because they want someone that is full-go to start the season, and Brooks may not be, I'll let my league mates draft him and be happy about it. I agree that if Dallas drafts a RB in the 2nd round that RB will be a first round pick in dynasty, regardless of format.
socrates
Footballguy
I agree that Darnold is underrated at QB36, and the opportunity is there for QB1 production. At that price, I am absolutely buying. That said, we have seen who Darnold is, and it is hard to get too excited about him as anything more than a bridge player, as you acknowledge, and that bridge could collapse at any time.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I fully expect to start him on bye weeks and maybe more in my SF. He’s also my 2nd QB in our large 1 QB league.I’d Buy Will Levis everywhere if he’s valued as a 3rd or 4th round pick. (I’ll be starting him in my rebuild).
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Like picking up the ugliest woman at closing time, but she could turn out to be a great cook or have other great attributes.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I personally think Sigmond is wrong here and the Shark move is to wait to see where the shiny new things land. ADP on most of these guys will be lower after the draft than it is today.
socrates
Footballguy
I think this is a solid strategy, @JohnnyU . However, I wonder if today is the day to make that move. If someone is willing to pay a premium to move up, I certainly would not turn them away, but the value of a mid-first probably has not yet hit its high water mark. Rookie hype is not going away any time soon, and the value of those picks should increase over the coming weeks.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Absolutely, the time to do what I said is before the NFL draft. After the draft everything changes. Players land in horrible spots, thus reducing the player pool for the desired players to draft and players land in great spots that move them up from the 2nd to the 1st and now are no longer available to trade down for. The downside of this are players that become 1st round picks because of landing spots that you could get by standing pat with your later 1st round picks. I just think in general it's worth the gamble this year to trade down from 1-05 - 1.12 (1qb leagues) to the early 2nd or 1.08-1.12 (SF) to do the same because this draft is WR deep. Prior to the draft you may be able to get your RB of choice or a WR you like, by trading before the NFL draft.
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socrates
Footballguy
To your point, last year's Draft did exactly that. That was one of the most disappointing Drafts in recent memory. It could also go in the other direction. Like I say, I would not turn down good value, and there is obvious risk in trying to squeeze more value out of a pick, but I am probably holding for now. The value of a mid-first, even if draft destinations are disappointing, is not going down much, but it could increase significantly if the Draft plays out favorably.
@JohnnyU , I know you to be a shrewd negotiator and someone who has his finger on the pulse of dynasty value. I am curious what type of compensation folks are paying to move from 2.01 to 1.05? What type of compensation would you be seeking to move back?
Agree here. I want a chance at the true elite players.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
For sure. The highest hope is that he shows well enough through this opportunity to earn a shot as a starter somewhere else in the future. Of course he could be kept around Minn. as a backup to their rookie too. And def. agree, I'm not thinking he'll suddenly be a Burrow, or even a Purdy; just that he can be good enough to take advantage of what the Vikes have in place around him. It's really more buying the value and the situation than buying Darnold. If he can do the small/easy things right like protect the ball and avoid negative plays like sacks, I think he'll put up numbers just as a result of their scheme. I'm hoping he was coached up on some of that stuff in SF last year too.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
As we used to say in college, "lower your standards, up your numbers" lol.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
In a 14 team standard (so added value to running backs) I made a couple of moves to get back end of the 1st to 1.05.
I had picks 1.01, 1.03, 1.13, 1.14, 2.04, 2.05, 2.07.
I traded 1.13, 1.14 and Rashid Shaheed for picks 1.10 and 2.03.
I then moved 1.10, 2.07 and a third in 2025 for 1.05.
I basically wanted a shot at the RB1 and had enough pieces to make the move. I think I got good value, particularly with the move to 1.05, with these moves but that's what it cost in my league at least. The teams I traded with have made some other moves and seem to be of the mind that getting more picks is better than shooting their shot at the top of a tier.
miqws
Footballguy
I use dynasty rank variance as way to ID targets. The concept is variance = large difference of opinion where one can then extract value. Here are some example superflex players in the top 150 to look at with same position player above, nearest rookie pick, player below:
QB: Jordan Love (#20 overall, QB11) - pluses are weapons, improvement Minuses are some accuracy issues, was it just a hot streak? Murray - 1.02 - Love - Lawrence. I like Lawrence most
RB: De’Von Achane (#36 overall, RB07) - pluses are speed, scheme fit. Minuses are size, durability, low volume. Etienne - Achane - K. Williams - 1.05. I like the 1.05 most
WR: Tyreek Hill (#30 overall, WR11) - pluses are speed, scheme fit Minuses are age. Olave - 1.04 - Hill - London. Classic win now target, trade for rebuild
TE: George Kittle (#100 overall, TE09) - pluses are top level skill set, minuses are usage, aging. Kelce - Kittle - 1.12 - Njoku. One of my favorite players, give me Kittle!
QB: Jordan Love (#20 overall, QB11) - pluses are weapons, improvement Minuses are some accuracy issues, was it just a hot streak? Murray - 1.02 - Love - Lawrence. I like Lawrence most
RB: De’Von Achane (#36 overall, RB07) - pluses are speed, scheme fit. Minuses are size, durability, low volume. Etienne - Achane - K. Williams - 1.05. I like the 1.05 most
WR: Tyreek Hill (#30 overall, WR11) - pluses are speed, scheme fit Minuses are age. Olave - 1.04 - Hill - London. Classic win now target, trade for rebuild
TE: George Kittle (#100 overall, TE09) - pluses are top level skill set, minuses are usage, aging. Kelce - Kittle - 1.12 - Njoku. One of my favorite players, give me Kittle!
joey
Footballguy
I thought the same exact thing when I read this part of the article. I’d wait til after the draft to see which of the “middle aged” RBs has a rookie drafted behind him, which should depress the vet’s value, and then target that vet if I’m Win Now.
FWIW on #1, Warren is a RFA next year too and will be 27. I don't see him having a shelf life worth spending much on to acquire. Even if Pitt doesn't pick up Najee's 5th year option (which I disagree is too much and consider cheap at less than $7MM when Pitt has $100MM in projected space for next year), I see Pitt drafting a stud young guy next year when the RB class is considerably better. I am also leary of the Pitt RB's unless it's in Best Ball. I think people are going to have a heck of time predicting week to week who blows up just like how ridiculous the usage in ATL was under Smith.
That's awesome. I'm 100% certain Sigmund would say the same. The best part of Fantasy Football is thinking through these things and coming up with how YOU feel about them.
Different opinions are what makes this game (and this forum) fun.
I find the Darnold love especially odd given his history but to each their own.
I think Steelers fans are coming around to what I've been saying- Warren and Najee are not studs. Talented and useful, sure, but neither is the alpha like so many prior Steelers backs. I'd sell both them, not just Najee as Bloom said. Will the Steelers add the back that trained with Henry? Got some other rookie back in mind? A veteran addition? I think their value is at their ceiling right now. Today the discussion is presented like is it A or B? Arthur has no personnel power but if it makes sense they'll surely add some position that suits the team. I don't care if it's a thumper or a scatback or a true stud- their values go down
I think Steelers fans are coming around to what I've been saying- Warren and Najee are not studs. Talented and useful, sure, but neither is the alpha like so many prior Steelers backs. I'd sell both them, not just Najee as Bloom said. Will the Steelers add the back that trained with Henry? Got some other rookie back in mind? A veteran addition? I think their value is at their ceiling right now. Today the discussion is presented like is it A or B? Arthur has no personnel power but if it makes sense they'll surely add some position that suits the team. I don't care if it's a thumper or a scatback or a true stud- their values go down
This type of discussion is fantastic too. So good to bounce values off a sharp group like this.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That's hard to be exact and is league dependent. It can change from owner to owner based on their roster construction as to whether they are in win now or rebuild, or simply how they value the 1.05 pick. Of course I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. Depending on the owner, sometimes they will offer more to move up, sometimes less, and sometimes not at all. But if you held a gun to my head and made me be more specific, I would think a future 1st, along with the early 2nd to move up to 1.05 is not unreasonable.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Keep an eye on Baltimore, too. They are most likely going to pick one later in the draft. You'll most likely have to sit on the guy for a year or two, but it may pay off.
Thanks. What tools do you use to calculate the variance?
I believe making any trades where you go after guys you believe in more than the "public value" is ideal to do this time of year. This is where you can get your biggest value but it does come with risk.
However, this risk is up to you on how big you view it to be. Those that are confident in their evaluation process/success can mine that gold this time of year. Those that aren't confident usually freeze because they don't want to make a mistake.
I also don't value draft picks as much as the next guy while still understanding the value they hold. I like to move picks for guys I have seen succeed in the NFL because I know they can. Rookies are still a crapshoot. This is where I find the most value realized. Take advantage of the shiny new toy syndrome for a 2nd/3rd year guy that is getting a bump in situation that you have seen have upside in the NFL. That is my best move recommendation to make pre draft.
However, this risk is up to you on how big you view it to be. Those that are confident in their evaluation process/success can mine that gold this time of year. Those that aren't confident usually freeze because they don't want to make a mistake.
I also don't value draft picks as much as the next guy while still understanding the value they hold. I like to move picks for guys I have seen succeed in the NFL because I know they can. Rookies are still a crapshoot. This is where I find the most value realized. Take advantage of the shiny new toy syndrome for a 2nd/3rd year guy that is getting a bump in situation that you have seen have upside in the NFL. That is my best move recommendation to make pre draft.
I just don't see how he is at any type of discount now or after the draft. I think he is a full price guy as any owner is likely not wanting to miss out on his potential this year. Only exception being a team in a total rebuild. But if that is the case that team can get a much better return after the season starts a contender needs a RB.
miqws
Footballguy
I gather rankings across the internet, main source is fantasy pros and Faust links. I use some FBG ranks, thx for beefing up this area at FBG but let me know if that is not cool.. I prefer rankers whom I read or listened to so I get a feel of their logic - at the end of the day the average captures group think and the variance captures a difference of opinion. Once set up the spreadsheet is relatively easy to update.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
I'm holding the 1.05 tightly because there's a solid chance its value leaps into tier 1 if things break right tonight.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I prefer not to rank players, but instead put them into groups of love, like, neutral, dislike. When this time of year rolls around I know in my mind who are in the groups I mentioned, making it easy for me to draft. I think getting granular with ranking players 1,2,3, etc. is not a good way to do it. Knowledge of players is more important than rankings IMO.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
ADP will only be lower on those guys after the draft if their teams draft a threat. He's saying to grab these guys because those teams are unlikely to invest in RB in a weakened draft. So unlike most years when people are running to get away from old RB's, there's little threat to these old RB's that a young guy comes in to depress the value. So if you find an owner that's not in tune with how weak the RB draft is and how unlikely CLE and HOU are to draft a threat, you could get a solid top 10 type return for far less price.
miqws
Footballguy
Agreed on knowledge of players being more important. However, the transaction is quantitative at the back end, ex. asset 1 + asset 2 = asset 3. So at some point a value is derived during a transaction. Largest flaw with rankings IMO is that it implies linearity throughout. I use rankings to know where the general public is and use that knowledge.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with that, but I have player profiles, pundits opinions, recent articles, and of course my opinion of all that wrapped in my head at this time of the year. I don't need rankings, whether my own, or others, to make an informed decision on my rookie drafts. I understand and respect those that need this, but I don't.
1-4 were pretty valuable all offseason. Ever since Rice got in trouble and Diggs got traded the picks outside the top 4 got much more expensive. Lately we’ve had folks hyping/hoping for a RB to Dallas or a few other spots that has the mid round pick holders salivating too.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
In start 1qb leagues I agree the 1-4 were always valuable with MHjr, Nabers, Odunze, and Bowers. In SF, the 1.05 has always been valuable, but in 1qb leagues I believe it is a sell unless Dallas drafts Brooks. If Dallas drafts Benson I believe it is a sell high for sure. If Dallas doesn't draft Brooks, the 1.5 is a sell no matter what in a 1 qb league.
Thanks. Do you have links for those?
miqws
Footballguy
Not exact links, but easy to find. Short description as well.
1. Fantasypros - Erickson, Fitz, Wheeler to name a few.
2. Keeptradecut - based on public polling
3. Fantasycalc - based on trades. Probably tilts a bit due to varying
4. Theathletic - first article free. I clear website data as a habit, which resets such that first article is free. Jake Ciely
5. ESPN - Mike Clay. Have to convert to SF*
6. Dynasty trade calculator - again have to convert to SF*
7. Thescore - Justin Boone’s dynasty trade chart
8. Rotoheat - several rankers, beware the pop up ads are on steroids on this site
9. Pro football network via fantasypros
10. Draftsharks - data with each player but a whole lot of scrollings
*see https://dynastyprocess.com/values/ for a way to convert. I used Excel solve and my own exponential equations to get best fit
1. Fantasypros - Erickson, Fitz, Wheeler to name a few.
2. Keeptradecut - based on public polling
3. Fantasycalc - based on trades. Probably tilts a bit due to varying
4. Theathletic - first article free. I clear website data as a habit, which resets such that first article is free. Jake Ciely
5. ESPN - Mike Clay. Have to convert to SF*
6. Dynasty trade calculator - again have to convert to SF*
7. Thescore - Justin Boone’s dynasty trade chart
8. Rotoheat - several rankers, beware the pop up ads are on steroids on this site
9. Pro football network via fantasypros
10. Draftsharks - data with each player but a whole lot of scrollings
*see https://dynastyprocess.com/values/ for a way to convert. I used Excel solve and my own exponential equations to get best fit
Pretty sure he means all of the links that Faust puts up in all of the player threads on this board.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
1.05 feeling pretty good.
joey
Footballguy
Traded 1.5 in FFPC (1 QB, TE-P) for Waddle right before roster cut downs last month.
Still have the 1.5 in another league but it’s non-TE-mandatory, so it’s kind of depressed by 1pick since Bowers is not likely to go in the top 4.
jabarony
Footballguy
Along the same lines, late 1st in SF is looking pretty nice. As of yesterday, I would have thought 1.10 + 1.11 for 1.01 was a pipe dream. Now with that potentially being Nix + Penix, it's not crazy. And If the trade were 1.10 & 1.11 for 1.02 (Nix/Penix for Daniels I assume), I think I'd prefer the 2x 1sts.
And yes I have the 2 late 1sts if you couldn't tell
jabarony
Footballguy
As much as I like the 1.5 value increase, still give me Waddle. Today didn't impact your outcome. It definitely helped your trade partner.
You may still be good in your non-TEP if DAL or LAC take a RB in the 2nd.
