6 pts TD passing (1 Viewer)

[Sweet Love]

I have been thinking about this quite a bit. Without going into much about my league detail, I am in a Keep 3 where I have 3 of the top 6 players overall (this is what got me thinking about this in the first place). With my first pick (really a 4th round pick when you consider the 3 kept players per team), I have been contemplating going with a QB. Typically, this is very out of character for me as I like to grab two QBs in the 9-14 range and ride the hot hand. Since it is 6pts per passing TD, I have been questioning this strategy, but when I look at the numbers last year, I am left wondering why should I stray??

In 2009, the top QB had 34 passing TDs (Brees) and the #12 QB had 26 TDs (four-way tie). NOTE: I am not including rushing TDs or yards in evaluating these performances as I am really looking at the impact of 6 pts/passing TD. This is a 48 point variation from 1 to 12 on this stat along, or basically 3.4 points over a typical 14 week fantasy regular season.

Now, in 2008 (again not a record breaking passing year either), the top QB also had 34 TDs, but the #12 QB on had 19 passing TDs (Penny), for a differential of 15 TDs or 6.4 points/game over a 14 week fantasy season (nearly double the differential).

Where I am going with this is was last year an abberation and I am likely to be burned if I wait on a QB again, or is this level of parity a trend (maybe good passers are catching up to the great ones?)?

For what it is worth, I managed to take Roth (QB#12 in passing TDs) and Schaub (#5 in passing TDs) and was quite successful. I would love to do something like that again, but if it were 2008 and Schuab got injured, I would be practically out of the race with a #12 QB at the helm.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I think the difference between 4pt. and 6pt. TDs isn't as big as it appears to be on the surface. In a 12 team league I think you can still be competitive with a later round QB even with 6pt. passing TDs.

I believe that league size is a bigger factor. 12 teams = you're OK. In a 14 team league there's a little more pressure to draft a QB earlier. In a 16 team league a stub QB can make a bigger difference and this is where I would grab one early, because you just know some arsehole in your league will take Rivers as their QB1 and then immediately back him up with Matt Ryan or Eli as their QB2 (snagging that mid-round guy you were targeting as your QB1 right from under your nose).

The other factor I've noticed that widens the gap between QBs would be if your league counted negative points for sacks. This isn't common though, and I don't use it because it's often not the QB's fault. I played in a league a few years ago that had -2 for a QB getting sacked. It made guys like Kitna unstartable no matter what yardage he threw for and it gave Peyton Manning an even bigger edge over every other QB than he already had.

 

[shredhead]

I'd take the QB in the 1st. You said you have 3 of the top 6 players. From the way you worded it, I am going to assume you have AJ and 2 of the big 5 RBs (otherwise you probably would have worded it differently) So, you have 2 top 5 backs, 1 top 5 receiver, why would you not want to get a top 5 QB to round out the trifecta. All of this obviously depends on who is being kept and who is available with your first pick. If Cutler or Kolb is the best QB left because of keeprs, then you gotta look at WR and RB instead, but if somone like Romo is there at your first pick, I think you have to pull the trigger. <-- All of this is going on my original assumption of AJ and 2 of the big 5 RB's being on your roster.

 

[Sweet Love]

I'd take the QB in the 1st. You said you have 3 of the top 6 players. From the way you worded it, I am going to assume you have AJ and 2 of the big 5 RBs (otherwise you probably would have worded it differently) So, you have 2 top 5 backs, 1 top 5 receiver, why would you not want to get a top 5 QB to round out the trifecta. All of this obviously depends on who is being kept and who is available with your first pick. If Cutler or Kolb is the best QB left because of keeprs, then you gotta look at WR and RB instead, but if somone like Romo is there at your first pick, I think you have to pull the trigger. <-- All of this is going on my original assumption of AJ and 2 of the big 5 RB's being on your roster.

Shred,That is a very accurate guess...I did not mean to make this a "Who do I keep/draft thread", as the whole idea of 6TDs per passing TD and whether it is as valid as it used to be, has me intrigued.

 

[shredhead]

I'd take the QB in the 1st. You said you have 3 of the top 6 players. From the way you worded it, I am going to assume you have AJ and 2 of the big 5 RBs (otherwise you probably would have worded it differently) So, you have 2 top 5 backs, 1 top 5 receiver, why would you not want to get a top 5 QB to round out the trifecta. All of this obviously depends on who is being kept and who is available with your first pick. If Cutler or Kolb is the best QB left because of keeprs, then you gotta look at WR and RB instead, but if somone like Romo is there at your first pick, I think you have to pull the trigger. <-- All of this is going on my original assumption of AJ and 2 of the big 5 RB's being on your roster.

Shred,That is a very accurate guess...I did not mean to make this a "Who do I keep/draft thread", as the whole idea of 6TDs per passing TD and whether it is as valid as it used to be, has me intrigued.

Sorry, I didn't mean to make it a "Who do I keep/draft thread" either. I actually agree partly with LittlePhatty. On paper it shouldn't make that big of a difference going from 4 to 6 pts per TD in relative value at the position, but in my one league that does have 6 pt TDs, the real world results have bee different. Every year it seems the champion in that league has a top 5 QB. I have won the league 2 different times, and both times are when I had a top 5 QB. I've tried waiting on a QB without very good results. However, I have had good results waiting on a QB in my 4 pt TD leagues. Coincidence??? Yeah maybe, but I plan on going QB early in the 6pt league due to my past experiences.

 

[Exit 1]

I'm in a 1 keeper, 10 team league that gives 6 points for all TD's and I'm thinking of taking Rodgers with the #2 overall pick (really #12 when you consider the 10 keepers). I'm keeping Adrian Peterson.

My thinking is that 3 QB's are being kept (Brady, Brees, and Manning). That leaves about 4 great QB's left, imo (Rodgers, Romo, Rivers, and Schaub). After those 7, you're rolling with guys like Cutler, Manning, Palmer, etc. Uggh. Anyway, I don't think any of these will come back to me so I'm not going to take chances and just take the #1 QB right there.

 

[GDogg]

I have been thinking about this quite a bit. Without going into much about my league detail, I am in a Keep 3 where I have 3 of the top 6 players overall (this is what got me thinking about this in the first place). With my first pick (really a 4th round pick when you consider the 3 kept players per team), I have been contemplating going with a QB. Typically, this is very out of character for me as I like to grab two QBs in the 9-14 range and ride the hot hand. Since it is 6pts per passing TD, I have been questioning this strategy, but when I look at the numbers last year, I am left wondering why should I stray??

In 2009, the top QB had 34 passing TDs (Brees) and the #12 QB had 26 TDs (four-way tie). NOTE: I am not including rushing TDs or yards in evaluating these performances as I am really looking at the impact of 6 pts/passing TD. This is a 48 point variation from 1 to 12 on this stat along, or basically 3.4 points over a typical 14 week fantasy regular season.

Now, in 2008 (again not a record breaking passing year either), the top QB also had 34 TDs, but the #12 QB on had 19 passing TDs (Penny), for a differential of 15 TDs or 6.4 points/game over a 14 week fantasy season (nearly double the differential).

Where I am going with this is was last year an abberation and I am likely to be burned if I wait on a QB again, or is this level of parity a trend (maybe good passers are catching up to the great ones?)?

For what it is worth, I managed to take Roth (QB#12 in passing TDs) and Schaub (#5 in passing TDs) and was quite successful. I would love to do something like that again, but if it were 2008 and Schuab got injured, I would be practically out of the race with a #12 QB at the helm.

True, but you are considering a change in strategy based on 4 pts or 6 pts per passing TD, right? So, to get a better comparison, you need to look at the difference in total points between 4 pts and 6 pts/TD. While the overall difference is 48 points (since QB1 threw 8 more TDs than QB12), the difference due to scoring is only 16 points or 1.1 pt/week (with 6 pts/TD, QB1 was getting 48 total points more while with 4 pts/TD, QB1 is getting 32 total points more from TDs...48-32=16).So, it shouldn't change your strategy all that much. But, if it is true that you have 3 of the top 5 players, then I'd go QB if a stud QB is on the board with your pick.

 

[Abraham]

I believe that league size is a bigger factor. 12 teams = you're OK. In a 14 team league there's a little more pressure to draft a QB earlier. In a 16 team league a stub QB can make a bigger difference and this is where I would grab one early, because you just know some arsehole in your league will take Rivers as their QB1 and then immediately back him up with Matt Ryan or Eli as their QB2 (snagging that mid-round guy you were targeting as your QB1 right from under your nose).

This. Im in a 20 team keep 10 league and acquiring a QB through trade is impossible. The rookie/FA draft this season will feature Brian Brohm and Charlie Whitehurst as top 10 picks as every other starte or potental starter is rostered. I just gave up Mike Simms Walker for Tarvaris Jackson a week ago after Chad Johnson and my 1st rounder was turned down by both the Garrard owner and Campbell owner.League size makes all the difference regarding QBs.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Im in a 20 team keep 10 league and acquiring a QB through trade is impossible.

Question: do you have to start a QB? If so, that's brutal. I don't think I'd play in a 20 team league where you must start a QB. More power to you!