8 Players Vegas is Secretly Telling Us NOT TO DRAFT (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

I found this entertaining. The part of the podcast that drew me in was that it's Vegas lines and not the podcaster opinion, but he does provide details to go with it. Also, he only listed 7 players, not 8.

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[Insein]

I found this entertaining. The part of the podcast that drew me in was that it's Vegas lines and not the podcaster opinion, but he does provide details to go with it. Also, he only listed 7 players, not 8.

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Nick at BDGE is a good follow. Makes videos like this that offer betting insight with fantasy insight that people might not be thinking about.

 

[Soulfly3]

not sure about a source that uses data/vegas lines to make a point, but doesn't know the difference between 7 and 8.

anyways, agree on mostly all of them except for travis and judkins (provided he isn't behind bars)

 

[JoeJoe88]

not sure about a source that uses data/vegas lines to make a point, but doesn't know the difference between 7 and 8.

anyways, agree on mostly all of them except for travis and judkins (provided he isn't behind bars)

He’s one of the best YT Fantasy guys, easily. Definitely top 3.

 

[pinkstapler]

not sure about a source that uses data/vegas lines to make a point, but doesn't know the difference between 7 and 8.

anyways, agree on mostly all of them except for travis and judkins (provided he isn't behind bars)

He’s one of the best YT Fantasy guys, easily. Definitely top 3.

And next to the much maligned KTC, Vegas lines are pretty much the best representation we get of consensus opinions/projections. Literally, they have very large sums of money riding on them accurately predicting things. And then they move to reflect changes in community opinion, which again, is backed by actual money on the line. Not just people spouting off wild predictions for clicks.

 

[a_troll00]

Very interesting podcast. I'm in full agreement there, never had any intention of touching any of them.

 

[Big Nate]

I found this entertaining. The part of the podcast that drew me in was that it's Vegas lines and not the podcaster opinion, but he does provide details to go with it. Also, he only listed 7 players, not 8.

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Nick at BDGE is a good follow. Makes videos like this that offer betting insight with fantasy insight that people might not be thinking about.

I used to watch Nick a lot when he was first starting off and it was great. Once his following grew his content and delivery changed and I stopped watching. His early stuff and insight and content was good but I was not a fan of his stuff last year. I'll take a look at this and see how he's coming along.

 

[menobrown]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

 

[Payne]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

I suppose so, but I thought he added good detail to add context for the reasoning.

 

[Gally]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

I suppose so, but I thought he added good detail to add context for the reasoning.

Plus he probably makes more money for longer videos for more ads.

 

[Deamon]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Garrett Wilson - NYJ, WR
Travis Hunter - JAC, WR
Quinshon Judkins - CLV, RB
Chris Godwin - TB, WR
Deebo Samuel - WAS, WR
Travis Kelce - KC, TE
Tyler Warren - IND, TE

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

 

[Chaka]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

I get that. That's why if he's talking about something I don't want to hear I fast forward some and listen. If that isn't anything I want to hear I fast forward some more. Having said that, I'm retired, so I've got nothing but time.

 

[menobrown]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm not much of a video watcher, not with news or FF. Can read and consume more info a lot faster.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm not much of a video watcher, not with news or FF. Can read and consume more info a lot faster.

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[Big Nate]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Here it is with my comments.

#1 Garret Wilson - I actually don't mind his value as it seems reasonable at WR15. Yes the J-E-T-S SUCK SUCK SUCK but hes back with his college QB and he just signed a new contract. Fields knows this is his chance to show he belongs and _should_ heavily involve his WR1 if he knows what's good for him. Maybe I can acquire Wilson if everyone is down on him and his value keeps dropping. The Jets don't have any other good WRs. Now I really want to buy this guy lol.

#2 Travis Hunter - same as above - if his value continues to drop I'm in. He was going too high before and BTJ is still going to be the #1 out of the gates. Hunter long term could be fantastic but it could be a slower start to the season, especially if he is playing a bit on D too. I do believe he will be a big offensive threat once he gets comfortable with the NFL, the offence and TLaw. It just might be a slower start than some are hoping for.

#3 Judkins - situation speaks for itself. Also in a possible committee. Long term talent shows out and I do believe he is more talented than Ford or Sampson but Judkins might start the season as RB3 on the team if he can get his crap sorted out. Long term - buy.

#4 Godwin - Vegas projecting some very low yardage. If Godwin is healthy he will outproduce 700 yards. He had 3 years of 1000+ yards (130+ targets each season) until last year when he went down. The reality is he is a top 10 talent at WR in this league. Super underrated right now IMO. Recency bias is stronger than ever and everyone wants the old guys to fade away and be instantly replaced with the brand new shiny rookie. Potential value if he's 100%.

#5 Deebo - yeah I'm not feeling this one either. Now at WR39 you aren't paying a lot so hard to really bust if he's as WR4 as that is his value. Dart throw upside if he gets mixed in at RB too which would help his value. WSH likely spread the ball around and he might be a flex player at best. This one is meh as its not really that big of a surprise.

#6 Travis Kelce - TE6 with only 4.5 TDs. Andrews, Njoku, Engram and Kraft the 4 behind him. I'd still probably roll with Kelce as I still believe he could finish in the top 5 at TE. I do like both Andrews and Njoku but they both have question marks (Likely and no QB? respectively). Again recency bias and people hating on old guys. I don't usually take TEs early in redraft leagues so if Kelce is there mid rounds he's worth it for upside.

#7 Tyler Warren - I say no to all rookie TEs unless they are some elite unicorn like Bowers. Generally why draft a rookie TE when they can take years to come around. I'd rather just draft someone like Njoku or Engram who have done it before. Sure rookie drafts in dynasty take your shots but don't expect TE1 numbers year one.

Anyways.... nothing shocking here but good discussion points I guess.

 

[Lansdowne]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm not much of a video watcher, not with news or FF. Can read and consume more info a lot faster.

Best thing would've been to provide the list of the players and then offer to watch the video if you want further context as to why they were listed. I'm not particularly interested in sitting through the video as I can already surmise good reasons to why those players would be faded.

 

[menobrown]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm not much of a video watcher, not with news or FF. Can read and consume more info a lot faster.

Best thing would've been to provide the list of the players and then offer to watch the video if you want further context as to why they were listed. I'm not particularly interested in sitting through the video as I can already surmise good reasons to why those players would be faded.

Yes, was thinking same thing, that's the ideal set up.

 

[Jail]

The video is tabbed by “chapters “ for each player in the discussion. Just click “more info” on the video comments and the full list is right there. You can jump to any particular player you might want to watch. Or just see the list

 

[JohnnyU]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm not much of a video watcher, not with news or FF. Can read and consume more info a lot faster.

Best thing would've been to provide the list of the players and then offer to watch the video if you want further context as to why they were listed. I'm not particularly interested in sitting through the video as I can already surmise good reasons to why those players would be faded.

fast forward is cool thing. How much time does it really take from one's day to do that? Sometimes you guys are too critical.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Those same people shouldn't put much stock in a video that says here's 8 players that Vegas doesn't like with no reasoning why. The video has the reasoning.

 

[menobrown]

The video is tabbed by “chapters “ for each player in the discussion. Just click “more info” on the video comments and the full list is right there. You can jump to any particular player you might want to watch. Or just see the list

Before I could even get to that point to check I had to go through a two step log-in verification process and twice agree to watch a video it suggested some people may not suitable.

Just a list please, lol.

 

[JohnnyU]

The video is tabbed by “chapters “ for each player in the discussion. Just click “more info” on the video comments and the full list is right there. You can jump to any particular player you might want to watch. Or just see the list

Before I could even get to that point to check I had to go through a two step log-in verification process and twice agree to watch a video it suggested some people may not suitable.

Just a list please, lol.

Sometimes I post a list with the video and I see that is helpful. Sometimes I don't. I'll go and burn my arm now with one of my cigars.

 

[Lansdowne]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm not much of a video watcher, not with news or FF. Can read and consume more info a lot faster.

Best thing would've been to provide the list of the players and then offer to watch the video if you want further context as to why they were listed. I'm not particularly interested in sitting through the video as I can already surmise good reasons to why those players would be faded.

fast forward is cool thing. How much time does it really take from one's day to do that? Sometimes you guys are too critical.

Fully aware of that function, just not worth the effort to me to fast forward through 24 minutes to see if there are any tidbits I want to listen to. Then again I've always preferred reading articles over listening to podcasts.

 

[JohnnyU]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm not much of a video watcher, not with news or FF. Can read and consume more info a lot faster.

Best thing would've been to provide the list of the players and then offer to watch the video if you want further context as to why they were listed. I'm not particularly interested in sitting through the video as I can already surmise good reasons to why those players would be faded.

fast forward is cool thing. How much time does it really take from one's day to do that? Sometimes you guys are too critical.

Fully aware of that function, just not worth the effort to me to fast forward through 24 minutes to see if there are any tidbits I want to listen to. Then again I've always preferred reading articles over listening to podcasts.

That's your prerogative. Everyone has their thing and I can respect yours. Ever since retirement I'm not in a hurry for anything.

 

[TheWinz]

How about getting back to the 7 players and stop bellyaching about having to watch a video or not?

 

[JohnnyU]

How about getting back to the 7 players and stop bellyaching about having to watch a video or not?

I would say right on!! But I really didn’t give a I’m used to it here.

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

How about getting back to the 7 players and stop bellyaching about having to watch a video or not?

7?? I was told there were 8!

 

[JohnnyU]

How about getting back to the 7 players and stop bellyaching about having to watch a video or not?

7?? I was told there were 8!

Title of the video only. It was mentioned in the op there were only 7, but my guess is, that is already known. :sigh:

 

[Lansdowne]

How about getting back to the 7 players and stop bellyaching about having to watch a video or not?

No thanks, I like complaining.

My two cents:

Garrett Wilson - I think people fading him for having Fields throwing to him are overthinking it. He's still the unquestioned top target earner on his team with a QB who he has chemistry with dating back to college. I don't see him ever taking that next step into fantasy WR1 (top 12) territory, but he should continue being a strong fantasy WR2.

Travis Hunter - I'm a believer in his talent, but the situation can't be ignored. I think him being a fantasy WR1 depends on him fully committing to WR and growing from that. As long as he splits work at CB he will have his ceiling capped. Well that and also having a bonafide stud WR1 in Brian Thomas Jr. as his teammate. Hunter is best suited for best ball and IDP leagues, and should still have redraft/weekly value but he'll be of the high variance variety.

Quinshon Judkins - Obviously we'll need to see what comes of his legal matter but I typically don't like to deal with boneheads. I'd rather get his rookie teammate Dylan Sampson at a cheaper cost, just as long as that doesn't get wildly overpriced.

Chris Godwin - He may actually be a good value, though may start off the season a bit slow coming off his injury. I'm of the mind that the Bucs wouldn't have brought him back and at the money they did if they didn't think he'd be able to play close to the level he showed last year.

Deebo Samuel - I think he's washed personally, he's an easy fade. That's not even counting how out of shape he looked in clips earlier this summer. Thinking the physical toll of being a WR/RB hybrid type has caught up.

Travis Kelce - Also pretty much washed, though still a top 12 fantasy TE. He can probably repeat last year's numbers at the very least.

Tyler Warren - IND, TE - Not sure I agree with this. He should be a decent target earner on this offense, even with Michael Pittman and Josh Downs in tow. It will help if Daniel Jones is the starter, since he's bad but he's not Anthony Richardson bad.

 

[ericttspikes]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Garrett Wilson - NYJ, WR
Travis Hunter - JAC, WR
Quinshon Judkins - CLV, RB
Chris Godwin - TB, WR
Deebo Samuel - WAS, WR
Travis Kelce - KC, TE
Tyler Warren - IND, TE

Love that he's on the list. When stuff like this circulates I think it does depress ADP a bit, which helps people with a different take. Love Garrett Wilson this year at 14. Not sure why he's comparing him to AJ Brown or Ladd McConkey? Not seen Wilson go ahead them in any draft so far. I get the gist from what he's saying is that Justin Fields sucks and the Jets suck. 2023 Justin Fields, on a terrible Bears team with Luke Getsy as O-coordinator, made DJ Moore look ok; 96/1364/8. Bears starters in 2003; Moore/Mooney/Kmet. Jets Starters 2025; Wilson/Reynolds?/Mason. Fields is gonna funnel Wilson the ball IMO. I'm fully glass half full, flag planted on Wilson this year.

I'll also take the over on Fields 14 PTDs.

 

[Jail]

The video is tabbed by “chapters “ for each player in the discussion. Just click “more info” on the video comments and the full list is right there. You can jump to any particular player you might want to watch. Or just see the list

Before I could even get to that point to check I had to go through a two step log-in verification process and twice agree to watch a video it suggested some people may not suitable.

Just a list please, lol.

Fair enough. I’m always logged in, so it’s just a click for me. The way I see it is that if someone is putting their thoughts out there for free and we’re going to discuss it…the least we can do is give the guy a quick click/view.

But to each their own.

 

[Scoresman]

RE: Garrett Wilson

I'm also not targeting him in drafts at WR13 ADP. Yes, he has talent and opportunity, but it's more of situational ceiling issue for me. He'll probably need a near 30% target share and crazy efficiency to exceed his ADP in a Jets run-heavy offense led by Fields.

People point to DJ Moore as a receiver who stood out with Fields but that just proves the point. Moore needed outlier TD Rate and Yards per Target to do this and Wilson has never had numbers in his career that match this. It's possible he could repeat Moore's numbers, but very unlikely.

 

[Chaka]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm not much of a video watcher, not with news or FF. Can read and consume more info a lot faster.

Best thing would've been to provide the list of the players and then offer to watch the video if you want further context as to why they were listed. I'm not particularly interested in sitting through the video as I can already surmise good reasons to why those players would be faded.

fast forward is cool thing. How much time does it really take from one's day to do that? Sometimes you guys are too critical.

It's not intended to be critical. I can watch baking videos all day long, it's my thing. But FF videos, I mostly find tedious. Another bozo offering an opinion about something inherently unknowable (i.e. we're all guessing in the dark). "Hey, Mr. Bozo YouTuber, post a list and if I find any of the names interesting I may watch some of your video."

I generally get all the information I need from bozos I actually like in here.

 

[Chaka]

Why not just tell us the 7-8 players instead of making us watch a video?

Was going to ask the same thing.

The video provides good context and understanding.

I don't think it's a big ask. Not everyone has the time, or patience for a 24 minute magic football video at 10:00 am on a Wednesday.

Those same people shouldn't put much stock in a video that says here's 8 players that Vegas doesn't like with no reasoning why. The video has the reasoning.

Meh. I pay JB and his bozos to watch videos for me.

 

[Scoresman]

Also, not bothered by this format. He puts the list of players in the video description and also used the chapter feature so you can skip to the part you're interested in. Not all content creators do this.

 

[pinkstapler]

@JohnnyU can you just PM all the board members the details of this video, that way we don't have to even scroll through this thread to find them.

 

[Big Nate]

@JohnnyU can you just PM all the board members the details of this video, that way we don't have to even scroll through this thread to find them.

I provided my own insight and it is the best sight for sure.... HA

 

[Ilov80s]

I found this entertaining. The part of the podcast that drew me in was that it's Vegas lines and not the podcaster opinion, but he does provide details to go with it. Also, he only listed 7 players, not 8.

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100% agree on all those guys. None of them are on my redraft radar. Judkins was my closest (for non-ppr) but after this recent incident, I am out....or at least until we get more clarity and a much adjusted ADP.

 

[MrSoup]

BDGE is awful imo. After the season is over, go back and look at the teams he drafted or the players he targeted. This dude does not know ball.

 

[JohnnyU]

BDGE is awful imo. After the season is over, go back and look at the teams he drafted or the players he targeted. This dude does not know ball.

When he first aired I remember the shirt tucking in thing. I thought it was a nice touch. I agree with a lot you said, but he put a lot of thought into this one.

 

[Ilov80s]

BDGE is awful imo. After the season is over, go back and look at the teams he drafted or the players he targeted. This dude does not know ball.

He is not my brand of guy- a little too bro/manosphere for me but I do like his approach to this list.

 

[TripItUp]

I actually agree with all of these except for Hunter who has been comped by some of the top film guys to OBJ.

Wilson is a maybe, he is going too early in fantasy drafts for my taste but he could meet expectations so I'm closer to neutral on him.

 

[Insein]

I found this entertaining. The part of the podcast that drew me in was that it's Vegas lines and not the podcaster opinion, but he does provide details to go with it. Also, he only listed 7 players, not 8.

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Nick at BDGE is a good follow. Makes videos like this that offer betting insight with fantasy insight that people might not be thinking about.

I used to watch Nick a lot when he was first starting off and it was great. Once his following grew his content and delivery changed and I stopped watching. His early stuff and insight and content was good but I was not a fan of his stuff last year. I'll take a look at this and see how he's coming along.

Been watching for 3 years now and he's changed his format a few times. The biggest problem I see him have is balancing redraft vs dynasty content. He made a second channel for dynasty a year or 2 ago but he still lets both creep in because he makes a lot of videos.

 

[massraider]

How about getting back to the 7 players and stop bellyaching about having to watch a video or not?

I mean, for real.

That was depressing

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Garrett Wilson - NYJ, WR

I didn’t care for his reasoning on this one. He never once mentioned Fields making DJM into a top FF receiver, which is actually a thing that happened.

I know he’s doing a bit where he’s taking Vegas O/Us to imply a predictable model & outcome, but the rationale fell a little short of anything conclusive.

Deebo

this reasoning fell way short for me as well. WAS has said they want to get the ball in his hands on screens, quick hitters underneath, and in the flat, but all dude talked about was his usage in SF. Spoiler alert - he’s no longer in SF, and WAS has said they want to get him the ball a lot.

And at his ADP anything over ~13 PPG is probably a great success.

I’ve followed that guy for a while. Entertaining content that doesn’t always hit the mark. Makes for good discussion though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The biggest problem I see him have is balancing redraft vs dynasty content. He made a second channel for dynasty a year or 2 ago but he still lets both creep in because he makes a lot of videos.

Yep - totally agree. I’ve noticed this on several videos. Spot on.

 

[Riffraff]

Chalk me up as another non-video watching FF guy. Not watching long fluff videos for a tidbit that I have to find. I consume FF audio info during workouts or driving, rarely sit down and watch FF content - rather 'watch' better entertainment.
Same with the hour long FF podcasts with 15 minutes of substantial info. I'm the weirdo that has it playing at 1.7 speed - and yes, my brain can comprehend it. (I'll slow that back down for comedy podcasts.)

Give me the FF article to see if they can put it into meaningful words instead of full of filler. And important for me: easy to come back to if it's good stuff.