A way to find value in drafts? (1 Viewer)

[After the Rain]

So much time is spent crunching numbers and looking into stats, etc. to find next year's good value picks. I can see that and intend on doing that each year. At the same time, I am always looking for new ways to find value. An area I have been thinking about is picking guys who I have heard have "heart" or "drive". Admittedly my knowledge of these things is very limited but it seems that when I do find out about a guy who is truly driven (Curtis Martin is a classic example) the following are often true:

1. They are more likely to play through injury

2. They are less likely to get suspended or in trouble with the law (character may be a part of heart or drive as I see it)

3. They will be in as good of good shape as possible and ready for the season physically

I think of guys like LT, Steve Smith, Gore, P Manning and in the past guys like Curtis Martin.

Admittedly, I have heard a lot of good things about Caddy and we know what happened this year so this is by no means foolproof. At the same time maybe this can be a place where we can find some value?.

I'm interested to hear others' thoughts about this in general. Also, I'd be interested in hearing about who you think are some guys who are truly driven and passionate about the game.

 

[code]

I think of guys like LT, Steve Smith, Gore, P Manning and in the past guys like Curtis Martin.

I don't know if you can take it as far as a subjective factor, but objectively you can approximate :durability: by analyzing average number of games played each season...As for your list I'd place LT, Manning and Martin near the top of either list, not Smith or Gore...Also notice that guys like LT and Manning are gonna cost you high draft picks so value or upside is capped...to really maximize this strategy you need some mid round guys who fit your classifications...at which point the analysis needs to include pportunity: as well, as many of these guys might not appear :durable: merely on games played but when given starting opportunities never miss a game...Of course durability: + pportunity x :fantasy ppg: = :fantasy point for the year: and you pretty quickly fall to back to stat analysis with a little modification factor for the number of games you expect the player to start (or conversely how likely he is to get injured)...

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm actually working on an article that ignores the actual players but instead focuses on ADP and yearend results to identify where value typically lies over the past few years. That way people can look to see what positions can reap rewards by waiting while others are far more imperative to invest early picks.

 

[SuperJohn96]

You need to look at guys like Wayne Chrebet, Ricky Proehl or Joe Jurevicius to make this worthwhile.

 

[After the Rain]

You need to look at guys like Wayne Chrebet, Ricky Proehl or Joe Jurevicius to make this worthwhile.

I have no problem with considering guys like that. IIRC, Chrebet provided good value many times and the other guys had their moments. I can't really recall a time where one of those guys would have underperformed their draft position.About LT, I think he would have provided tremendous value this year as compared to the other guys picked in the top 3. He also provided solid value to everyone who got him in an auction league (I would think). Another way to consider it is looking at trade value in a redraft. Let's say his trade value would have been about 280 fantasy points worth of value. If I make that trade before or early in the season, I get tremendous value.Again, I am not saying this is an objective measure, nor am I saying that the consideration of it will revolutionize the fantasy football world. It just seems that this might be an overlooked way of getting some unseens value in drafts (which is getting harder and harder to do).

 

[Family Matters]

Where I always start is with meeting my minimum requirement:

1. Talent

2. Motovation

3. Opportunity

A player has to have these 3 things in order to have a reasonable chance at producing fantasy numbers. Once you have identified that a player meets this criteria then you start looking at more subjective factors such as "heart".

If we're talking about a rookie then you have to rely on observations from his college days. They tend to carryover but not all athletes adapt to the pro game the same way.

If you are talking about existing players then I believe that past performance is a great indicator of future results. Take TO as an example. He has a past of great performance that can't be disputed. He also has a past of character issues that can't be disputed as well. And guess what? They both have followed him in a predictable pattern. While he the 3 qualifying attributes, his character issues cause me to avoid him. The reason is I know there's a good chance he'll miss games due these flaws. So I will let someone else have that risk. I'll take guys like Lee Evans and Driver.

 

[After the Rain]

Where I always start is with meeting my minimum requirement:1. Talent2. Motovation3. OpportunityA player has to have these 3 things in order to have a reasonable chance at producing fantasy numbers. Once you have identified that a player meets this criteria then you start looking at more subjective factors such as "heart".If we're talking about a rookie then you have to rely on observations from his college days. They tend to carryover but not all athletes adapt to the pro game the same way.If you are talking about existing players then I believe that past performance is a great indicator of future results. Take TO as an example. He has a past of great performance that can't be disputed. He also has a past of character issues that can't be disputed as well. And guess what? They both have followed him in a predictable pattern. While he the 3 qualifying attributes, his character issues cause me to avoid him. The reason is I know there's a good chance he'll miss games due these flaws. So I will let someone else have that risk. I'll take guys like Lee Evans and Driver.

Good stuff FM, thanks for the thoughts.