Aaron Rodgers draft at 24 revisited (1 Viewer)

[cr8f]

It doesn’t take Vince Lombardi to figure out 10 1/2 years after the fact that the San Francisco 49ers should have drafted Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith at No. 1 overall in the 2005 NFL draft.

But let’s be fair and judge the decision based on when the 49ers made it in real time. Looking back, as Rodgers and Smith prepare to match up Monday night for the third time in their careers, a majority of NFL teams appear to have rated Smith higher going into that draft.

So the great wonder isn’t why Rodgers didn’t go first overall, but why he lasted to No. 24. The 49ers, after all, liked him enough that reports the day after the draft said they would have considered trading Smith to another team that drafted Rodgers in the top 10, like the Eli Manning-Philip Rivers deal the previous year.

It’s easy to say that all 20 teams that picked after the 49ers and before the Packers – the Vikings and Cowboys had two picks each – were clueless now that Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league.

But even the Packers had lingering questions three years after drafting him, just as he was taking over as their starter in 2008. How else do you explain them drafting Brian Brohm in the second round that year? If they knew what they had in Rodgers, there’s no way they’d have spent that high a pick on a backup quarterback. They wanted a fallback, just in case.

So looking back at the quarterback status for all the teams that passed on Rodgers, there are only two viable conclusions. One, those teams at minimum were unconvinced Rodgers would be an upgrade over what they had; and two, most quarterbacks fail in the NFL.

The 20 teams had quarterbacks in various stages of their careers, and especially considering the immeasurable importance of the position, you can judge teams only by what they do. Each thought Rodgers too suspect to risk a first-round pick. And when you look back at some the players they liked as much or better, it’s yet another stark lesson in the crapshoot that is projecting quarterbacks in the NFL.

Still, the teams that have to be kicking themselves most are Miami, Cleveland and Tampa Bay; they had the second, third and fifth picks of the draft.

Whole story.

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/dougherty/2015/09/24/rodgers-draft-proves-gms-quandary/72738464/

 

[Dismattle]

(fwiw) I believe most Teams probably like at a minimum, two players @ the same value.. If they believe one is superior, its most likely when we see Teams trade to move up..

But w/ QBs especially, you have to consider the gambling aspect.. It wouldn't shock me to know quite a few Teams were nearly daring the Pack to draft a falling QB (Pack already carrying the greatest of all time QB)

It is almost as if the other Teams were conspiring to help keep the Packers competitive after being bottom dwellers for soooo long.. Farve wasn't getting any younger, and Fans wanting a SB ring may have exploded IF the pack made a gambling type early pick on a QB.. (Can you imagine the News going off on an early Wrong QB pick)

Yeah it was gambling, but I think most Fans knew or believed ARod was pretty good..

Basically Teams could select their (2nd fav) player, and if things played out as hoped/expected? Perhaps jump up in the draft and select ARod for a cheaper rate..

As mentioned, Teams must consider the added expense of drafting Rookie QB's.. The Pack drafted TWO!

At some point, it might be interesting to hear how some people like yourself feel GB will handle the reigns when its time for ARod.. Did they learn anything? Will some things change? (imo) Its almost dejaVu

ex. Would it be acceptable to bring in an older veteran to pal around from game to game w/ Arod (No real threat, but serviceable)

 

[ImTheScientist]

ARod was coached up and changed his mechanics from college. He had the talent, but had he gone to another team he wouldn't be the guy he was today. Props to GB and their staff for developing him.

 

[shady inc]

Favre as a mentor

 

[Joe Summer]

If he hadn't sat behind Favre he'd be another Joey Harrington.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

If he hadn't sat behind Favre he'd be another Joey Harrington.

Maybe. He was ready to start in 2007 though. He looked great against the Cowboys that year in a game that Favre got hurt.

Also, the questions surrounding Rodgers at the time they took Brohm were more health related. He had gotten hurt two seasons in a row before even becoming a starter.

There were more than a few whispers from within the organization that Rodgers was already better than Favre in 2007. After Favre's performance in the NFC title game that year, the switch was really a no brainer for them.

 

[cstu]

ARod was coached up and changed his mechanics from college. He had the talent, but had he gone to another team he wouldn't be the guy he was today. Props to GB and their staff for developing him.

Watch his last college game and tell me he looked like a future top 10 all-time QB.

 

[ImTheScientist]

ARod was coached up and changed his mechanics from college. He had the talent, but had he gone to another team he wouldn't be the guy he was today. Props to GB and their staff for developing him.

Watch his last college game and tell me he looked like a future top 10 all-time QB.

His throwing motion there makes me want to vomit.

 

[buck naked]

Wow. excellent posts guys. How interesting.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Fast forward to "Brett Hundley draft at 147 revisited."

 

[ImTheScientist]

Fast forward to "Brett Hundley draft at 147 revisited."

um...no.

More like fast forward to Hundley is traded for a pick to some team and then sucks.

 

[The Claymaker]

Obviously things worked out for Rodgers, and thank coaching and time behind Brett for part of what he is today. But many guys have similar opportunities and it doesn't work out for whatever reason, I think a big part of that reason is Rodgers wants to be great and he worked his butt off to be great. He absolutely has some god given talent that can't be taught, but you also have to work at it to become a completely dominate player like he is today.

 

[Sabertooth]

Vikings and Cowboys passed on him twice.

Brett didn't really mentor him I don't think. I remember a couple things about being at the first game the Rodgers ever played in as a Packer. He was on the sidelines trying to pump up the crowd even though there was very little chance he'd play. He was into it though. Doing what he could. It just seemed like something a natural born leader would do. He did get in, 1-1. 0 yards.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Rodgers was fortunate he ended up with the Packers. If a team like Cleveland or Tampa Bay had drafted him, he would be on his second or third team by now or out of the league.

There were also some really bad first round picks that year. Troy Williamson at #7. Mike Williams at #10. In hindsight, Minny or Detroit should drafted Rodgers instead but they probably would have screwed him up.

 

[apalmer]

You sound like he's the first QB to not be drafted top 5 and become a star. Dan Marino was the the 27th player drafted (when there were only 28 picks in the round) and had 4 QBs (including Todd Blackledge and Tony Eason) drafted before him. Brady was a 6th rounder. It happens.

 

[Biabreakable]

From what I remember the 49ers valued both QB pretty close, but they felt that Smith was the more athletically gifted QB.

At the time rookie QB were getting a lot of money, so teams were not so keen on tying up that kind of resources on a 1st round QB unless they felt certain he would be the man. With the new CBA teams are not concerned about the money aspect of it as much.

As far as the Vikings passing on him, well they had Culpepper coming off of co-MVP with Peyton Manning the previous season and they also had an older Brad Johnson in reserve. That in no way excuses them for drafting Troy Williamson, but at the time they really did not need a QB. Of course Culpepper was injured the next season and never played very well again after that.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You sound like he's the first QB to not be drafted top 5 and become a star. Dan Marino was the the 27th player drafted (when there were only 28 picks in the round) and had 4 QBs (including Todd Blackledge and Tony Eason) drafted before him. Brady was a 6th rounder. It happens.

Drew Brees a 2nd rounder as well.

 

[Soulfly3]

Really makes me wish Mariota could be sitting behind Brady, or Manning or Brees right now.

Still think he'll be real good... But that couldve made him WOW

 

[moondog]

Favre as a mentor

Never happened.

Just one of countless reports at that time -

"

Favre's departure from Green Bay was very contentious. Rodgers had to replace a legend, who had taken his last team to the threshold of the Super Bowl, and from all media reports, Favre wasn't exactly a generous mentor in Green Bay to Rodgers during their time together. "

 

[duaneok66]

ARod was coached up and changed his mechanics from college. He had the talent, but had he gone to another team he wouldn't be the guy he was today. Props to GB and their staff for developing him.

seriously, best post ever by Scientist.

Some players DEVELOP in the NFL due to good coaching.

That's why most of these retro discussions have little merit.

 

[FUBAR]

If he hadn't sat behind Favre he'd be another Joey Harrington.

Maybe, but I think it's more the coaching than sitting behind someone.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The point about Brohm is a really good one.

 

[The Duff Man]

Poor planning at QB is one of the contributing factors to so many of these picks flaming out. Few teams are willing to spend a first round pick and let them ride the pine for three years.

But they should realize that MOST QBs coming into the league would benefit from this. They arent all going to be Rodgers, but giving time to develop is better than throwing the kid to the wolves, having them flame out and watching your pick go down the drain.

EJ Manuel on the Bills is a prime example right now. All reports are that he is doing well under Roman, but he was close to being cut after being ruined by Marrone.

 

[Meatwad Reloaded]

Rodgers had a pre draft grade of 99. Very few players ever get that, ever. The reason he fell is pretty simple. It was one of those years, where a good number of teams felt they had their guy and were not willing to invest a first rounder combined with a ton of busts that had occurred in the years prior. Boller, Carr, Harrington, Couch, McNown, Smith, and Leaf were all pretty fresh in the minds of many GMs at that point and they simply did not see a point in taking the risk.

 

[cstu]

Rodgers had a pre draft grade of 99. Very few players ever get that, ever. The reason he fell is pretty simple. It was one of those years, where a good number of teams felt they had their guy and were not willing to invest a first rounder combined with a ton of busts that had occurred in the years prior. Boller, Carr, Harrington, Couch, McNown, Smith, and Leaf were all pretty fresh in the minds of many GMs at that point and they simply did not see a point in taking the risk.

By who? Link?

Here's what people said about him before the draft:

What NFL scouts told the Journal Sentinel's Bob McGinn before the draft about quarterback Aaron Rodgers:

Marc Ross, Buffalo: "He's a little short. The thing you worry about is those (Jeff) Tedford guys. They don't do anything for a couple years and then they have a good year or two. Who of his quarterbacks has done what they're supposed to do? None of them. Is he just working magic with great college quarterbacks or just manufacturing guys?"

AFC scout: "I like him. He's a very talented guy. A lot of quarterbacks that were system people have not done very well. That puts up a red flag. Not that he is one of them. He could be an exception. But I can't get it out of my craw."

Rich Snead, Tennessee: "I like him. I just don't know if he's maxed out. He's more accurate than (Kyle) Boller but probably not as athletic. He's a better player than Akili Smith. He's more athletic than (Trent) Dilfer was. He's a little more mobile than Joey Harrington. He had to go to a JC because no one would recruit him because they said he was too small. He's been busting his (expletive) his whole life to get to this point. I just don't know how much more he has to give."

NFC scout: "(Alex) Smith is the better athlete."

AFC scout: "I think he has some upside although there are some things that are just ordinary about him."

Jerry Angelo, Chicago: "I'd give Rodgers the edge (over Smith) just because he was easier to evaluate. And there's a little more arm. But the edge is negligible."

NFC scout: "I think he has a good chance of being a bust. Just like every other Tedford-coached quarterback. Thing I struggle with him is he gets sacked a lot. He doesn't have great ability to change the release of the football. He's mechanically very rigid. Brett Favre can change his release point and find different windows. There will be more growing pains with Alex Smith but in the end he has a much better chance to be much better."

NFC scout: "The guys that Tedford has had, what have they developed into? They're too well-schooled. So mechanical. So robotic. I don't know if they become good pro players. I think Rodgers is in that same mold."

AFC scout: "I don't like him. He's a clone of Harrington and Boller. They all throw the same way. What have those guys done? Nothing. If you take him in the second round, fine. Heady guy. They do a marvelous job of coaching quarterbacks there. I don't think he's as good as the top quarterbacks coming out last year."

AFC scout: "I don't think he's in the class of the quarterbacks that came out last year. Strong arm. Pretty good athlete. Still has some holes in his game."

Bill Polian, Indianapolis: "I see a guy who has good arm strength. I see some athletic ability. I see a guy who was pretty good with a good team. I see a guy who's in a pretty efficient offense. Am I certain that he's going to come in and lead my team to the Promised Land? I can't say that. I'm not even sure I can say that about Alex Smith."

AFC scout: "He's a system quarterback. 3-, 5-, 7-step guy. Can't create on his own. Panics under pressure. Gets flustered easy. I don't think there's a quarterback in the draft worthy of a first-round pick. I'm dead serious. None of them are worth it."

NFC scout: "He fit right into the Cal system. He probably executed that as well as anybody. He doesn't have as strong an arm as Boller but can make the same reads and play the scheme as well as Boller did.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

The salary structure at the time was such that coaches felt compelled to play their first round QBs right away. The Packers, without a megalomaniac owner who wanted a return on his investment right away and with a strong starter already, were in a unique position of letting their first rounder sit and develop.

Now that first round QBs don't get such outrageous first contracts, more teams should be following this model, but most haven't,

 

[cstu]

The salary structure at the time was such that coaches felt compelled to play their first round QBs right away. The Packers, without a megalomaniac owner who wanted a return on his investment right away and with a strong starter already, were in a unique position of letting their first rounder sit and develop.

Now that first round QBs don't get such outrageous first contracts, more teams should be following this model, but most haven't,

I'm not buying that since the Steelers the previous year drafted Roethlisberger at #11 and he signed a 6 year/$22M deal.

The Titans had a 32 year old injury prone McNair, who was locked out of the building in 2006 before being traded for a 4th to the Ravens. Instead of Rodgers they took troubled CB Pacman Jones at #6 and then drafted Vince Young at #3 in 2006.

The Cardinals signed 34 year old Kurt Warner to a one year/$4M deal in 2005, not exactly a show of long-term faith on their part. Instead of Rodgers they took Antrel Rolle and then drafted Matt Leinart at #10 in 2006.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Fast forward to "Brett Hundley draft at 147 revisited."

um...no.

More like fast forward to Hundley is traded for a pick to some team and then sucks.

2020, an ice cold Ted Thompson ships the aging Rodgers out for a bushel of picks.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

is there any scenario or location or system where Al Smith could have landed that things might have been different?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Rodgers had a pre draft grade of 99. Very few players ever get that, ever. The reason he fell is pretty simple. It was one of those years, where a good number of teams felt they had their guy and were not willing to invest a first rounder combined with a ton of busts that had occurred in the years prior. Boller, Carr, Harrington, Couch, McNown, Smith, and Leaf were all pretty fresh in the minds of many GMs at that point and they simply did not see a point in taking the risk.

By who? Link?

Welcome to the made up world of Meatwads.

 

[ImTheScientist]

ARod was coached up and changed his mechanics from college. He had the talent, but had he gone to another team he wouldn't be the guy he was today. Props to GB and their staff for developing him.

seriously, best post ever by Scientist.

Some players DEVELOP in the NFL due to good coaching.

That's why most of these retro discussions have little merit.

That post is about to break the likes record. Just need 4 more likes.

 

[CalBear]

is there any scenario or location or system where Al Smith could have landed that things might have been different?

No. Smith is relentlessly mediocre and would have been that anywhere he went (as he now has been for six different coaches and two different teams).

To this thread: Anyone who is paid by an NFL team to scout players, and decides not to draft one because "he's from [school]" or "he was coached by [coach], and the other guy like that busted" should be fired immediately.

That said, I didn't think Rodgers was a sure-fire NFL star coming out of Cal, though I did think he was clearly better than Alex Smith.