Ahman Green's best days are behind him (1 Viewer)

[Righetti]

To start with I want to state that i just traded Ahman Green, so this thread may be seen as one that is biased, although the reason I just traded Ahman is because of the 10 or so reasons I stated below coupled with his 2004 production and what i was starting to see as some bad trends going into 2005 and beyond. Now I could very well be proven dead wrong at the end of next season, but sometimes it feels that you should make predictions based on what you yourself see happening in a certain situation, if there are a number of factors which change for the worse, you should acknowledge them and use it to make your decisions . In a dynasty league, my theory is to try to trade guys (for good value of course) before they really decline and I just see Ahman as going downhill even if it’s slight

I had Green as the backbone of my dynasty league for the last few years, having drafted him #2 overall in 2003. In the three years I was somewhat disappointed with his 2003 numbers, ecstatic with his 2004 numbers and sort of blah about his 2005 numbers (and this is only because I was able to pair him with Kevin Jones)

The reasons that Ahman scared me going forward are the following

1) Losses of the two starting guards on the offensive line

I am convinced that the Packers will rebuild that line and I'm sure they will have the ability to gel well..but this has been one of the best units in the NFL over the last 5 years, although they may be good they will undoubtedly have growing pains and when you are drafting a RB1 those growing pains can hurt production. Wholesale changes scare me, especially when two interior lineman leave during the same off-season, whenever you discuss a running back.

2) Injuries.. I know you can't predict them and Ahman has not had any major injuries but there are certain players who seem to play through pain better than other ones. The thing that annoyed me most is that Green always seemed to get dinged up, enough to make you think about what you can expect week in, week out. He has dressed for most games but seems to have a lot more 10 to 15 carry games than I was happy with.

3) his best may be behind him

he will be a full season removed from his 2004 season when he compiled 2250 total yards on the ground with 20 TD's, last year he regressed back to his own mean and I imagine he will stay there and I imagine his numbers will come down as his carries stay closer to 250 per season.

4) Age.. not that Ahman is old by any stretch but Ahman is going to be 28 going into this season with some decent mileage on his tires. He has had five straight seasons of 250 carries and has 1771 total carries, which is a good amount compared to other starting NFL RB’s. More career carries than Jamal, Tiki, Warrick Dunn, Priest, Shaun, Fred Taylor, Deuce and the like although to be fair less than Curtis (3298 carries) , Dillon (2210 carries) and Edge (1828 carries). In a dynasty league, my theory is to try to trade guys before they really decline and I just see Ahman as going downhill even if it’s slight.

5) fumbles.. in a -3 points for a fumble league his sweaty arms have given me enough stomach pains to last a life time.. but what i have always noticed in games he fumbles in, is that Sherman tends to give him the next series off. His fumbles very often also seem to happened in the most critical of situations, it happens when he is looking to make a big play but it often leads to the defense recovering and scoring off the turnover.

6) Najeh and Tony Fisher... Combined they offer possibly the best backup running backs in the league.. I am NOT ready to anoint them the second coming, but as pure backups they offer an excellent change of pace and in the few games that they have had to

carry the major load they generally come through. T.Fisher is an excellent third down receiving RB and Najeh with his 250 pound frame is starting to get more looks in the short distance situations. I am by no means trying to say this is RBBC, I just see Najeh and Fisher increasing the number of carries/receptions they have gotten.

7) receptions..

In every year, Ahman's catches have come down and his receiving yards have generally come down every year also (except when comparing 2000 to 2001)

2000: 73 for 559

2001: 62 for 594

2002: 57 for 393

2003: 50 for 367

2004: 40 for 275

with Tony Fisher playing most third and longs, there aren't enough opportunities for Ahman to be a real focal part of the offenses. What was once the reason you wanted Ahman on your team has became less and less interesting since he now ranks nowhere near the top in terms of receptions OR receiving yards.

8) Brett Favre for 2005..

The gunslingers last year has me thinking that the Packers will throw the ball a ton again this year and with Ahman not being an integral part of the passing game anymore, this scares me.. I just see Favre airing it out a ton this year, especially with a suspect defense, this is not good for a RB who cannot rely on catches.

9) Brett Favre beyond.

If Favre does retire after this year, the entire franchise will turn over and the Packers will probably have to turn ta 2nd year QB with virtually no experience (since Favre will almost certainly play virtually every snap this year). Rookie or 2nd year QB's kind of scare me.

10) Opposing Defenses.. the NFC North should be a bit better this year. They also play the Bucs, Panthers, Steelers, Falcons, Eagles and Ravens this year

11) the Packers defense.. is terrible and Packer games (especially b/c Favre is at the helm) tend to turn into shootouts more often than not.. this is NOT a good trend for a running back who is starting to be ignored in the passing game.

throw in the Abuse charges.. I just don't like seeing a guy like this get himself into a place where he is being a accused of spouse abuse.. I know its not anything he has been convicted of and I also know that many great RB's are ones that are coming off a shady past or off-season, but for Green this just doesn't feel good.. He is portrayed as kind of a batman dork.

now with all that said.. The Packers will still run the ball a ton, will still have Ahman Green get 250 to 300 carries and will still afford him the opportunity to get about 8 TD's, but those aren't ones that excite me for a guy who may be on the downside of his career. I just don't see him having a year like he did 2 years ago and have a bad feeling that his numbers are going to come down off the 2004 numbers as well.

I see him as the #12 to 15 RB next year (not that this is that bad) with some upside above that but generally think that he is NOT a RB1 you would be happy with this year unless you could pair him with a very good RB2.. Ahman/Tiki is of course a nice combo but unless you are guaranteed a good RB in the 2nd round, I'd stay clear of him. Especially in dynasty league situations where he would be the cornerstone of your franchise..

edited for poor spelling

 

[gman8343]

I think his days of a top 3 or 4 RB are behind him, but he can still easily be top 10 for a few more seasons.

 

[Righetti]

Gman, I think his top 10 seasons may also be behind him.. I see more of the 12 to 16 finished in the next few years than I do 6 to 10.. not a big difference I suppose.THere are just a number of aspects of his situation which I don't like, in much the same way I'm not a big fan of Fred Taylor, I just don't like Ahman's future outlook as much as others.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I tend to agree that he won't be top 10 this year. I think people's expectations were skewed too high after 2003, and he didn't follow through.I have him at (assuming standard scoring):

Ahman Green	GBP	15 games	286 att	1,284 yds	8 tds	41 rec	285 rec yds	2 rec TD	216.2 fant points

His value is higher in a point per reception league.

 

[Fantasy Ninja]

One thing you are failing to take into account is that he is playing for a contract. This seems to motivate players through those nagging injuries and what not. Having Davenport on his has (also playing for a contract) isn't going to allow Green much time to take breathers. Also of note is that Tony Fisher is also playing for a contract so Green has no leeway as far as that is concerned.

 

[LHUCKS]

His '05 schedule is absolutely brutal. Green has me concerned as well.

 

[gman8343]

Another thing that is interesting is the level of talent at RB this year. There are so many good RBs that some of the elite are probably going to get shoved out of the top 10 even if they have solid years, and Green could be one of those.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think his days of a top 3 or 4 RB are behind him, but he can still easily be top 10 for a few more seasons.

If CuMar could lead the league in rushing last year, Green can still finish in the top-10, or top-5.Seriously - all that has to happen is they feed him the ball and he stays healthy, and he's a virtual lock to get you 1500+ rushing 4-500 rec and 10-12 TDs. If he stays healthy, that is.

I certainly don't see him suddenly becoming a 3.7 YPC guy from a near 5.0 YPC, like Ricky, but his 2005-2007 health - and not the OL or his prior injuries - is the key issue, IMO.

 

[Righetti]

I think his days of a top 3 or 4 RB are behind him, but he can still easily be top 10 for a few more seasons.

If CuMar could lead the league in rushing last year, Green can still finish in the top-10, or top-5.Seriously - all that has to happen is they feed him the ball and he stays healthy, and he's a virtual lock to get you 1500+ rushing 4-500 rec and 10-12 TDs. If he stays healthy, that is.

I certainly don't see him suddenly becoming a 3.7 YPC guy from a near 5.0 YPC, like Ricky, but his 2005-2007 health - and not the OL or his prior injuries - is the key issue, IMO.

Marc,Of course he can still be good and even great.. I am saying that his receiving yards have come down ever year, his TD's (except for 2003) have never been exceptional and his nagging injuries always bother me.

the thruth is that you are saying he is a virtual lock for 1500+, 4-500 rec and 10 to 12 TD's

he has only had 1500+ once in five years, he has not had 400-500 yards receiving in the past three years and he has been in single digit TD's in 2 out of his last 3 years.

I don't think he is a lock for any of those three criteria.. if anything he is a "lock" for 1250/300 and 9TD's..

Nothing about his situation in 2005 gives me reason to say he's going to improve on 2004.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I think his days of a top 3 or 4 RB are behind him, but he can still easily be top 10 for a few more seasons.

If CuMar could lead the league in rushing last year, Green can still finish in the top-10, or top-5.Seriously - all that has to happen is they feed him the ball and he stays healthy, and he's a virtual lock to get you 1500+ rushing 4-500 rec and 10-12 TDs. If he stays healthy, that is.

I certainly don't see him suddenly becoming a 3.7 YPC guy from a near 5.0 YPC, like Ricky, but his 2005-2007 health - and not the OL or his prior injuries - is the key issue, IMO.

Mainly agree, but until we see what kind of holes the new OL can make, that part is also a little iffy.

 

[H.K.]

I tend to agree that he won't be top 10 this year. I think people's expectations were skewed too high after 2003, and he didn't follow through.

I have him at (assuming standard scoring):

Ahman Green	GBP	15 games	286 att	1,284 yds	8 tds	41 rec	285 rec yds	2 rec TD	216.2 fant points

His value is higher in a point per reception league.

Your projection would put Green in the top 10 in standard scoring formats for the past four years (in fact your estimate would have him ranked as the #8 RB in standard scoring and PPR leagues in 2004)

 

[Winston Smith]

I think his days of a top 3 or 4 RB are behind him, but he can still easily be top 10 for a few more seasons.

If CuMar could lead the league in rushing last year, Green can still finish in the top-10, or top-5.Seriously - all that has to happen is they feed him the ball and he stays healthy, and he's a virtual lock to get you 1500+ rushing 4-500 rec and 10-12 TDs. If he stays healthy, that is.

I certainly don't see him suddenly becoming a 3.7 YPC guy from a near 5.0 YPC, like Ricky, but his 2005-2007 health - and not the OL or his prior injuries - is the key issue, IMO.

I think all of those numbers, particularly the rec. ones, are pretty high. He hasn't had 500 rec yards in several seasons.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I tend to agree that he won't be top 10 this year.  I think people's expectations were skewed too high after 2003, and he didn't follow through.

I have him at (assuming standard scoring):

Ahman Green GBP 15 games 286 att 1,284 yds 8 tds 41 rec 285 rec yds 2 rec TD 216.2 fant pointsHis value is higher in a point per reception league.

Your projection would put Green in the top 10 in standard scoring formats for the past four years (in fact your estimate would have him ranked as the #8 RB in standard scoring and PPR leagues in 2004)

Last year was a down year for both avg attempts for lead backs, and avg yards for the top ten backs.I expect those numbers to trend back up as a whole, but leaving Green out of the top 10. I currently have him ranked #14. Additionally, in a league where 1yd (rush&rec)=.1 and a TD=6, Green finished at #14 last year, and my projected stats would have put him at #9. However, on a per game basis, he would have finished behind Priest, JJones, and Willis McGahee. So I consider his last year's ranking to be closer to 13th.

 

[Righetti]

even calling him a "near 5.0" guy is being a bit generousin every year other than 2003 his YPC have been 4.3 to 4.6, which is very very good but not 5.02000 4.52001 4.62002 4.32003 5.32004 4.5 he hasn't had 500 yards receiving since 2001 and has only had one 1500 yard rushing season.. can't call him a lock on either of those

 

[Winston Smith]

even calling him a "near 5.0" guy is being a bit generous

in every year other than 2003 his YPC have been 4.3 to 4.6, which is very very good but not 5.0

2000 4.5

2001 4.6

2002 4.3

2003 5.3

2004 4.5

he hasn't had 500 yards receiving since 2001 and has only had one 1500 yard rushing season.. can't call him a lock on either of those

 

[H.K.]

I tend to agree that he won't be top 10 this year.  I think people's expectations were skewed too high after 2003, and he didn't follow through.

I have him at (assuming standard scoring):

Ahman Green GBP 15 games 286 att 1,284 yds 8 tds 41 rec 285 rec yds 2 rec TD 216.2 fant pointsHis value is higher in a point per reception league.

Your projection would put Green in the top 10 in standard scoring formats for the past four years (in fact your estimate would have him ranked as the #8 RB in standard scoring and PPR leagues in 2004)

Last year was a down year for both avg attempts for lead backs, and avg yards for the top ten backs.I expect those numbers to trend back up as a whole, but leaving Green out of the top 10. I currently have him ranked #14. Additionally, in a league where 1yd (rush&rec)=.1 and a TD=6, Green finished at #14 last year, and my projected stats would have put him at #9. However, on a per game basis, he would have finished behind Priest, JJones, and Willis McGahee. So I consider his last year's ranking to be closer to 13th.

Makes sense, just wanted to point out your projection was Top 10. I figured you'd have other RB's higher than him, and a #13 ranking isn't unreasonable or unrealistic.

 

[Marc Levin]

even calling him a "near 5.0" guy is being a bit generous

in every year other than 2003 his YPC have been 4.3 to 4.6, which is very very good but not 5.0

2000 4.5

2001 4.6

2002 4.3

2003 5.3

2004 4.5

he hasn't had 500 yards receiving since 2001 and has only had one 1500 yard rushing season.. can't call him a lock on either of those

4.7 career average with over 5.0 two years ago. I was using hyperbole -in truth, he is a 4.7 YPC guy who I don't see suddenly dipping to sub-4.0 ala Ricky (was the point)On TDs - since he has been a starter, he averages 12 total TDs per year - he had 8 in 15 games last year, and 9 in 14 games two years ago. Thinking that a 16-game Green goes for double D TDs was not off the mark.

His reception numbers have fallen, it is true, and my "500 rec yards" was a little high, but a 16 game Green is a lock to go anywhere from 350-400 - unless your entire frame of reference is calling last year's low rec. yardage a trend as opposed to an anomoly in his career numbers.

On rushing numbers - in a 16-game season, would you not agree Green gets 300 or so carries? at 4.7 YPC that is 1410.

I may have been "slightly" high with my numbers, but I was NOT overly optimistic in projecting his numbers in a 16-game season. Like I said, if he plays 16 games, he is a top-10 if not top-5 back.

And he makes my top-10 RB list anyway b/c even if he misses the occasional game, the games he plays, he is a solid FF performer form the RB1 spot.

 

[Winston Smith]

even calling him a "near 5.0" guy is being a bit generous

in every year other than 2003 his YPC have been 4.3 to 4.6, which is very very good but not 5.0

2000  4.5

2001  4.6

2002  4.3

2003  5.3

2004  4.5

he hasn't had 500 yards receiving since 2001 and has only had one 1500 yard rushing season.. can't call him a lock on either of those

4.7 career average with over 5.0 two years ago. I was using hyperbole -in truth, he is a 4.7 YPC guy who I don't see suddenly dipping to sub-4.0 ala Ricky (was the point)On TDs - since he has been a starter, he averages 12 total TDs per year - he had 8 in 15 games last year, and 9 in 14 games two years ago. Thinking that a 16-game Green goes for double D TDs was not off the mark.

His reception numbers have fallen, it is true, and my "500 rec yards" was a little high, but a 16 game Green is a lock to go anywhere from 350-400 - unless your entire frame of reference is calling last year's low rec. yardage a trend as opposed to an anomoly in his career numbers.

On rushing numbers - in a 16-game season, would you not agree Green gets 300 or so carries? at 4.7 YPC that is 1410.

I may have been "slightly" high with my numbers, but I was NOT overly optimistic in projecting his numbers in a 16-game season. Like I said, if he plays 16 games, he is a top-10 if not top-5 back.

And he makes my top-10 RB list anyway b/c even if he misses the occasional game, the games he plays, he is a solid FF performer form the RB1 spot.

Good stuff, but do you not think the O-Line issues will affect him at all? I think you've got to figure they will.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think his days of a top 3 or 4 RB are behind him, but he can still easily be top 10 for a few more seasons.

If CuMar could lead the league in rushing last year, Green can still finish in the top-10, or top-5.Seriously - all that has to happen is they feed him the ball and he stays healthy, and he's a virtual lock to get you 1500+ rushing 4-500 rec and 10-12 TDs. If he stays healthy, that is.

I certainly don't see him suddenly becoming a 3.7 YPC guy from a near 5.0 YPC, like Ricky, but his 2005-2007 health - and not the OL or his prior injuries - is the key issue, IMO.

I think all of those numbers, particularly the rec. ones, are pretty high. He hasn't had 500 rec yards in several seasons.

Like I showed above, they are SLIGHTLY not PRETTY high in projecting a 16-game season for Green.Now, I am not going to predict a 16-game season, and like I said in my initiial post, it is Green's health, not the other issues, that are MUCH more significant in projecting him out of the top-10 EOY numbers.

Finally, regardless of whether or not he is top-10 EOY, I'll take him in the top-10 backs for the same reason I'd rather have had Green's 14 game, out of the top-10 EOY 2002 numbers than Ricky Williams' 16-game in the top-10 EOY 2003 numbers.

 

[MU Seminole]

I totally see where you're coming from. In a dynasty, you need to try to time it up like you have done, and there are a few factors working against Ahman this year.Maybe most importantly, what did you get in return, IYDM?

 

[Marc Levin]

even calling him a "near 5.0" guy is being a bit generous

in every year other than 2003 his YPC have been 4.3 to 4.6, which is very very good but not 5.0

2000  4.5

2001  4.6

2002  4.3

2003  5.3

2004  4.5

he hasn't had 500 yards receiving since 2001 and has only had one 1500 yard rushing season.. can't call him a lock on either of those

4.7 career average with over 5.0 two years ago. I was using hyperbole -in truth, he is a 4.7 YPC guy who I don't see suddenly dipping to sub-4.0 ala Ricky (was the point)On TDs - since he has been a starter, he averages 12 total TDs per year - he had 8 in 15 games last year, and 9 in 14 games two years ago. Thinking that a 16-game Green goes for double D TDs was not off the mark.

His reception numbers have fallen, it is true, and my "500 rec yards" was a little high, but a 16 game Green is a lock to go anywhere from 350-400 - unless your entire frame of reference is calling last year's low rec. yardage a trend as opposed to an anomoly in his career numbers.

On rushing numbers - in a 16-game season, would you not agree Green gets 300 or so carries? at 4.7 YPC that is 1410.

I may have been "slightly" high with my numbers, but I was NOT overly optimistic in projecting his numbers in a 16-game season. Like I said, if he plays 16 games, he is a top-10 if not top-5 back.

And he makes my top-10 RB list anyway b/c even if he misses the occasional game, the games he plays, he is a solid FF performer form the RB1 spot.

Good stuff, but do you not think the O-Line issues will affect him at all? I think you've got to figure they will.

Green's OL was a shambles in 2002, and he still put up good per game FF numbers.

 

[Marc Levin]

In a dynasty, you need to try to time it up like you have done,

Agree on him being not quite as good a dynasty as redraft prospect, but I tiunk he still has 3 or 4 years of productive football ahead of him, and one or two more top ten finishes.

 

[cstu]

Green is a guy who 1400 total yards and 8 TD's is a down year. His carries will likely never be above 300 again, but he should stay about 250 and easily end up with 1100 yards rushing and close to 10 TD's. Add in a conservative estimate of 300 receiving and he's a very solid pick who should end up around the #10 RB.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think his days of a top 3 or 4 RB are behind him, but he can still easily be top 10 for a few more seasons.

If CuMar could lead the league in rushing last year, Green can still finish in the top-10, or top-5.Seriously - all that has to happen is they feed him the ball and he stays healthy, and he's a virtual lock to get you 1500+ rushing 4-500 rec and 10-12 TDs. If he stays healthy, that is.

I certainly don't see him suddenly becoming a 3.7 YPC guy from a near 5.0 YPC, like Ricky, but his 2005-2007 health - and not the OL or his prior injuries - is the key issue, IMO.

Hey Marc,You're right of course, but CMart has proven, time and again, that he's an exception among the rules. The fact remains that most backs reach an apex in their career, and then have difficult if not impossible times approaching their career year in future seasons. Green's 2004 season was very much in line with his typical levels of production, it was in fact his 2003 season that appears to have been an outlier for many reasons.

 

[Marc Levin]

Green is a guy who 1400 total yards and 8 TD's is a down year. His carries will likely never be above 300 again, but he should stay about 250 and easily end up with 1100 yards rushing and close to 10 TD's. Add in a conservative estimate of 300 receiving and he's a very solid pick who should end up around the #10 RB.

And based on those numbers (250 carries and 1100 rushing) those 200 FF points you predict likely come in 14 games, or an average of 14.2 standard FF Points per game. If those numbers come in 16 games, yeah - Green is done.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think his days of a top 3 or 4 RB are behind him, but he can still easily be top 10 for a few more seasons.

If CuMar could lead the league in rushing last year, Green can still finish in the top-10, or top-5.Seriously - all that has to happen is they feed him the ball and he stays healthy, and he's a virtual lock to get you 1500+ rushing 4-500 rec and 10-12 TDs. If he stays healthy, that is.

I certainly don't see him suddenly becoming a 3.7 YPC guy from a near 5.0 YPC, like Ricky, but his 2005-2007 health - and not the OL or his prior injuries - is the key issue, IMO.

Hey Marc,You're right of course, but CMart has proven, time and again, that he's an exception among the rules. The fact remains that most backs reach an apex in their career, and then have difficult if not impossible times approaching their career year in future seasons. Green's 2004 season was very much in line with his typical levels of production, it was in fact his 2003 season that appears to have been an outlier for many reasons.

I agree that 2003 was an anomoly, but I disagree that 2004 was a "typical" year - I believe 2004 looked alot like 2002 - but neither of those years looked similar to 2001 or 2002.The only consistent arc I see in Green's career is that there is a strong likelhood, as the full time starter, he's going to miss a couple games per year and that 2003 was an anomoly in that he played uninjured and with no OL problems for 16 games.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am still awaiting confirmation...

However in one dynasty league I have been offered Ahman Green and Aaron Brooks for Clinton Portis. This was at the same time as the legal issues of spousal abuse surounding Ahman Green emerged.

I let the offer sit on the table for awhile and read some things about Green Bay losing thier Gaurds, the decline in catches and potential negative impact of the legal issues might have on Green this season.

I also thought about how Green was traded out of the Shadow of Ricky Watters and Shawn Alexander. His fumbing issues and his propensity to miss time with niggling injuries.

Then the offer was pulled from the table to be replaced with Aaron Brooks and Ahman Green for Duece McCallister.

Now I am looking at giving up a Rb who is only one year younger (which does matter to me because this is dynasty) than Ahman Green is.

One thing kept popping into my head. Ahman Green is in a contract year.

Will Ahman Green be resigned with the Slack after this year?? And would he be as good of a Rb if he moves to another team?? My feeling about that is I consider him a more risky prospect if Green Bay should let him go to another team. Which they might do.

However if Favre retires after this season I see the Slack definitly bringing Green back in 2006 because they would want some consistency in thier offense to check the loss of Favre.

So what I see is Ahman Green being set to play for more than likely his last pay day. And also he may be motivated by this possibly being Favres last year. I do not see thier defense being close to good enough for them to make a run at another championship. However the offense will be playing to do just that.

I think Ahman Green is about to have a excellent year.

I pulled the trigger on this deal without knowing the results of the legal issues which could be a serious fly in the ointment. However we have repeatedly seen how the law has a different standard for pro athletes than it does the average citizen.

Net result is I see 2 buy low opportunites here for a Rb in Duece McCallister who may outperform Ahman Green long term but I do not consider him a lock to outperform Green this year as New Orleans Oline has some issues as well.

To be honest I am actualy quite amazed that these 2 proven and high performing players in Ahman Green and Aaron Brooks have enough of a shadow of a doubt surrounding them that an owner chose to jump ship with both for what I do not see as being even return. I do prefer Duece and Portis long term to Green but not enough to pass this opportunity up.

Said owner has yet to confirm the deal. But considering that he offered it with no prompting from me whatsoever I believe that is a foregone conclushion.

 

[mlball77]

some interesting stuff in here.

 

[Righetti]

i think that when you are making your projections for the next year you have to take into consideration everything that happens around the team going forward. another major factor is the fumbles and the tendancy for those fumbles to come in what are usually big spots in the game which lead to Sherman pulling him for a series or two afterwards..He seems to have more negatives than the guys who will be drafted around him.. can he put up a top 3 season again..of course, do I think its reasonable to expect him to put up numbers like those other guys..not at all..I am putting Ahman Green down for the #14 RB in my projections..not bad but not RB1 material in most leagues (and in many leagues you will have to use a late 1st round pick to get him..)Ahman Green will, in my opinion, put up numbers about 5 spots below his ADP. He will be drafted 7 to 10 and put up 13 to 15 type numbersas I stated early on..I just traded Ahman Green for all the above factors, going forward I like to get more upside than AG will give me..

 

[John 14:6]

I tend to agree that he won't be top 10 this year. I think people's expectations were skewed too high after 2003, and he didn't follow through.

I traded him, Holt, and Boston in a TD only league that year to get Priest. I was so ticked. But the WRs I kept were Harrison and Chad Johnson and I drafted Larry Johnson a lot earlier last year than I would have otherwise. Now I'm all

 

[Marc Levin]

I am putting Ahman Green down for the #14 RB in my projections

Curious to see your projections actually, as that would give me a much better idea on if you see injuries or performance tripping him up.

 

[Righetti]

I was looking at Ahman Green to finish behind LT2, Shaun, Priest, Deuce, Edge, KJ, Jamal, Tiki, Dillon, Portis, McGahee, Rudi and Julius. Putting him at about 13 right there with Domanic Davis, Warrick Dunn, C-Mart and Benson. as i said in previous posts I see him hover around the 12 to 16 range.projected at 260 carries 1165 yards, 305 receiving yards and 8 total TD's and 7 fumbles... in 14 games played. Putting him on an average of 14 pointgs per game played and 12.3 points for total games and about number 13 ranked RB at the end of the year.. now let me be totally honest here, when guys tell me that there RB ranks as a top 10 per game, that just doesn't fly as a guy you are going to have to draft in the first round of most leagues... at the end of the season you may say.. well when he played he was pretty good..that is not good enough for me.all the factors will play into his numbers being downI expect him to miss a game or twoexpect to see his ypc drop a bit with the lineman changesexpect him to hover in the 8 TD range with Najeh vulturing a number of themexpect his receiving yards to stay down..in the 300 range with Tony Fisher coming aroundexpect him to have a couple of big games and a whole bunch of so-so gamesexpect to have the Packers to play in a bunch of shoot-out games thus not giving him the "ground" attack a chance to get established througout the gamefor all these reasons I see him at the lower end of the first round runnng backs and because I believe his best days are behind him, I don't like him at all in a dynasty league...in redrafts I believe you HAVE to go RB-RB if you draft Green in the first round and hope to tie him with Warrick Dunn to get real production out of him

 

[goonsquad]

Righetti- You mentioned a couple of times that you recently traded Green in your dynasty league. Just out of curiosity, what did you get for him?Thanks.

 

[Righetti]

I haven't mentioned it because I didn't want to change the feel of this thread but I traded him for a package which basically made it up for Julus Jones (who i see putting up Ahman numbers this year and has more upside going forward) although it was done about 2 days before the A-Train signing which would have had me hold out for a bit more..

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I haven't mentioned it because I didn't want to change the feel of this thread but I traded him for a package which basically made it up for Julus Jones (who i see putting up Ahman numbers this year and has more upside going forward) although it was done about 2 days before the A-Train signing which would have had me hold out for a bit more..

So, you got Jones for Green? If it's a keeper league, it slightly favors you, but I don't see much upside for you this year.

 

[Family Matters]

In reading this thread I see what are valid concerns for Green. I do not think they are valid. Righetti mentioned his reasons for trading Green. Sounds like what he did was trade ahead of the downturn of his performance. I think this year he provides excellent value. Getting someone of his caliber in the 2nd round is good value. Others have mentioned he could still put up top 5 numbers, though unlikely, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.Last year he played nicked up most of the year forcing GB to rely more on the passing game and Fisher. If he's healthy this year expect to see 300+ carries and 40-50 catches. At his career avg of 4.7 ypc that would allow him to produce over 1400 yards rushing and 300+ yards receiving for 1700+. Add in 14 TD's and you have a pretty good year for a 2nd rounder.The line is a big question mark. In fact they had some line issues last year. I think they'll be ok there. Many of Green's successful runs are on the sweep. The main blockers are still there for that play. The Center will be back after missing most of the year and the replacement lineman seem to be a good fit in their system.The defense will be suspect again. That could mean more passing playing catch up or it could mean that BG will feel the need to protect their D by running the ball more and easting up time on the clock. A healthy Green will enable then to a better job of that this year.So I'm thrilled to get Green in SSL2 at 1.13. He provides good value with top 5 upside. In an offense that loves to run and does so very well.

 

[Righetti]

I like Julius and had him as a borderline top 10 guy going into the trade.. With A-Train I bump him down a few spots, the fact that we are a dynasty league changes my view of this trade b/c I love his upside in the next 5 years.enough about my own situation..I know some people are saying that IF ahman green stays healthy he may get to top 5 numbers.. I am saying thata) i doubt he'll stay healthyb) I don't like the fact that Sherman proves that he does not want to include Green in the passing gamec) the Green Bay defense will not give you very consistent productiond) the offensive line makes me nervouse) Najeh is the kind of powerful back who I can see taking both 4th quarter carries (especially with Ahman's history of small injuries) and goal line carries (just because of Najeh's size)of course I can eat lots of crow next January..but I doubt it.. He will be good and if I can get him at the 14th pick in a redraft I would take him... the point is that I don't think you will get him with that pick..you're going to have to pay 1.08 to get him (from the drafts I have seen)..which is WAY to early for him, considering the risk..in Dynasty Leagues his best years are behind him

 

[Righetti]

I just wanted to add that when I put my top 15 RB's up before they were not put in order of projected finish.. I have adjusted that since..

 

[Family Matters]

I like Julius and had him as a borderline top 10 guy going into the trade.. With A-Train I bump him down a few spots, the fact that we are a dynasty league changes my view of this trade b/c I love his upside in the next 5 years.

enough about my own situation..

I know some people are saying that IF ahman green stays healthy he may get to top 5 numbers.. I am saying that

a) i doubt he'll stay healthy

b) I don't like the fact that Sherman proves that he does not want to include Green in the passing game

c) the Green Bay defense will not give you very consistent production

d) the offensive line makes me nervous

e) Najeh is the kind of powerful back who I can see taking both 4th quarter carries (especially with Ahman's history of small injuries) and goal line carries (just because of Najeh's size)

of course I can eat lots of crow next January..but I doubt it.. He will be good and if I can get him at the 14th pick in a redraft I would take him... the point is that I don't think you will get him with that pick..you're going to have to pay 1.08 to get him (from the drafts I have seen)..which is WAY to early for him, considering the risk..

in Dynasty Leagues his best years are behind him

How do you predict injuries? I know several do but I've never understood how anyone can do that. It's just pure guesswork. A total crapshoot. Do you have some other tell you can share? I'm not trying to be funny I just don't see how ot can be done.

 

[Biabreakable]

in Dynasty Leagues his best years are behind him

I understand your concerns about Ahman Greens situation moving forward into the 2005 season. However I do not understand how you can say that his best years in dynasty are behind him. He is 28 years old. I see him still having 2 possibly 4 productive years remaining. Particularly if he resigns with Green Bay. I allready commented about my specualations on that. If Green falters this year then Green Bay might let him go in free agency. That is possible but I think unlikely.So the way I see it Green in a contract year and I expect him to be very motivated which could lead to one of his better years in 2005. With another one to 3 years of productivity ahead making him still valuable in the long term. In my opinion it is a year early to trade him away.

 

[Tau837]

If he's healthy this year expect to see 300+ carries and 40-50 catches. At his career avg of 4.7 ypc that would allow him to produce over 1400 yards rushing and 300+ yards receiving for 1700+. Add in 14 TD's and you have a pretty good year for a 2nd rounder.

14 TDs is high. He has reached 14 TDs one time in his career. Since he became GB's feature back, he has had 13, 11, 9, 20, and 8 total TDs. That 20 looks great, but I seriously doubt he's going to reach 14 TDs. I think projecting 8 is very safe and 10 is likely.

 

[Tau837]

One thing you are failing to take into account is that he is playing for a contract. This seems to motivate players through those nagging injuries and what not.

Can you provide some evidence of this? It is a commonly held notion around here that appears to be nothing more than a myth. Last year I challenged several of these posts to see if anyone could actually provide some proof that there is something to this, but no one could do so.

 

[Marc Levin]

He will be good and if I can get him at the 14th pick in a redraft I would take him

I've seen you post this a few times, and then I recall this:

LT2, Shaun, Priest, Deuce, Edge, KJ, Jamal, Tiki, Dillon, Portis, McGahee, Rudi and Julius. Putting him at about 13 right there with Domanic Davis, Warrick Dunn, C-Mart and Benson

Curious - If you get Green at 1.14 or 2.02 - as the 14th selection - you evidently do not value ANY position other than RBs for round 1?As for the list above, as strong a case can be made for Green in the top-10 asa can be made for these guys NOT in the top-10:Kevin Jones, Portis, Rudi, and Julius. As for JLew, this wil be a sticking point all preseason for me - I continue to not understand the love for this guy as a RB1. He gets you absolutely nothing through the air, so you need at least 1700 rush yards and at least 12 TDs to get him to 242 FF points - which would be around the 8th RB each year. I don't think it is unrealistic to predict that, but to bust on Green when he puts up those type of FF numbers on a per game basis, and then bank on JLew as a solid pick with his need to hit insanely high numbers, seems kind of off to me.

 

[Jason Wood]

Last year he played nicked up most of the year forcing GB to rely more on the passing game and Fisher. If he's healthy this year expect to see 300+ carries and 40-50 catches. At his career avg of 4.7 ypc that would allow him to produce over 1400 yards rushing and 300+ yards receiving for 1700+. Add in 14 TD's and you have a pretty good year for a 2nd rounder.

Hey Family Matters, I understand what you're saying and thought it would make sense to take a look at each of your contentions to see if they were presumptious or not.

300+ Carries if healthy

Ahman has been the Packers starter for five seasons, in those seasons his carries, per season were:

2000 -- 263

2001 -- 304
2002 -- 286
2003 -- 355
2004 -- 259
Avg. -- 293.4In only one of his five seasons (2003), did he have significantly more than 300 carries, and 2001 marked the only other season he surpassed that mark. If you adjust for games missed, Green has averaged 19.05 carries per game over his Packers career...which implies a 16-game total of 305 carries. Green has a fairly representative body of work that suggests 300 carries is his most likely full-season output, to assume any more would be betting on uncharacteristic behavior (as he exhibited in 2003).

Add to that his injuries and the state of the Packers defense, and I see very little liklihood that Ahman will get more than 300 carries in 2005.

40-50 receptions...

In this instance, I think your estimate is appropriate, although to project much beyond those numbers appears unlikely. The trend is NOT your friend as Green has see his reception totals drop every season in Green Bay:

2000 -- 73
2001 -- 62
2002 -- 57
2003 -- 50
2004 -- 40Finally, you suggest we should "add in 14 TDs," but again, does that make a lot of sense historically?

Here are Ahman Green's full season TD totals as a Packer:

2000 -- 13
2001 -- 11
2002 -- 9
2003 -- 20
2004 -- 8
Avg. -- 12.2At first glance, your projection of 14 TDs seems high, but not too high considering his career average of 12.2 TDs per season. But again, Green's total touches have varied widely over his career. Let's look at Green's TD-per-Touch on an annual basis:

2000 -- 13 TDs in 336 touches = 1 TD : 25.8 touches
2001 -- 11 TDs in 366 touches = 1 TD : 33.3 touches
2002 -- 9 TDs in 343 touches = 1 TD : 38.1 touches
2003 -- 20 TDs in 405 touches = 1 TD : 20.3 touches
2004 -- 8 TDs in 299 touches = 1 TD : 37.4 touches
Avg. -- 61 TDs in 1749 touches = 1 TD : 28.7 touchesAs you can see, TD production is the least predictable from year to year, but it stands to reason that Ahman is more likely to find himself near the midpoint of his career production than push toward the upper or lower bands.

So taking into account the "most likely" scenarios discussed, we're looking at:

295 carries
4.6 YPC (he's had 4.6 or lower in 4 of five seasons)
1,357 yards
45 receptions (midpoint of 40-50)
345 receiving yards (45 x 7.7 career YPR)
12 touchdowns (340 touches / 28.7 career TD/touch ratio, rounded up)
243 fantasy points243 fantasy points would put him solidly among the top 10 fantasy runners, so it would seem that if, in fact, you can land him in the 2nd round AND (and big AND), he remains healthy for the full 16-game slate, Green could have decent value this year.

 

[Righetti]

He will be good and if I can get him at the 14th pick in a redraft I would take him

I've seen you post this a few times, and then I recall this:

LT2, Shaun, Priest, Deuce, Edge, KJ, Jamal, Tiki, Dillon, Portis, McGahee, Rudi and Julius. Putting him at about 13 right there with Domanic Davis, Warrick Dunn, C-Mart and Benson

Curious - If you get Green at 1.14 or 2.02 - as the 14th selection - you evidently do not value ANY position other than RBs for round 1?As for the list above, as strong a case can be made for Green in the top-10 asa can be made for these guys NOT in the top-10:Kevin Jones, Portis, Rudi, and Julius.

Marc, the reference was to somebody saying that he would be happy to get Ahman with the 14th pick...my point was from the beginning that you will most likely have to draft him with an earlier pick than that. I stand corrected, I would NOT take Green with the 14th pick, but I would probably take him as the 14th running back in a redraft….The only way I would take him with 1.14 is if the first 13 picks were all running backs, in which case I would have to consider it.In my opinion, he should be about the 17-20th player taken off the board (behind the 13 to 15 RB's that I posted plus Manning, Culpepper, Moss, CJ and TO).The point is that people say stuff like..I'd be happy if finished in the 12 to 15 spot if I drafted him there.. I agree, I just think that some people will take him earlier than that.in regards to other players I have above Ahman Green, you are right, they don't have the history to backup the pick like Green does..but I just like their situations better, I think KJ is going to have a top season, I'm not a big Rudi fan but his production last year kept me interested, I've always loved Portis and think that he will have a very solid 2nd year in the Redskin campaign and I see Julius finishing about even with Green this year.... all those picks can be fairly criticized though

 

[Righetti]

[How do you predict injuries? I know several do but I've never understood how anyone can do that. It's just pure guesswork. A total crapshoot. Do you have some other tell you can share? I'm not trying to be funny I just don't see how ot can be done.

I am NOT predicting a major injury.. I would never do that, and I know you are being funny with your statementt asking if I have this information as if i'm Marty McFly or something, but as I'm sure you realize this is not something that I've ever said (in this post or others)I am saying that his track record shows that he gets dinged up, shows up on the injury report quite often and misses on average about a game per year... there is enough history there to tell me that Ahman Green typically misses some time.

I am NOT saying that he will have a major knee injury, but I believe the real possibility exists that he misses all or parts of 1 or 2 games due to a nagging injury

 

[Righetti]

Wood Although I agree that history is one of the best predictors for future fantasy production and if Ahman numbers will average out what they have always done than you are correct..but my post is intended to say that there are about 10 factors working against Ahman going into 2005 which would make me think his numbers will dip (and continue to dip going into 2006,2007 etc.)the one thing is we are looking at the average year and not the median year of Ahman Green, I definitely think that the 2003 numbers he has skew the average numbers pretty substantially.you are predicting him to finish at about the 8th spot (based on last year's draft) would you draft him as the 8th running back?? I absolutely would notwhere is he being taken in Mock Drafts?

 

[Jason Wood]

Wood

Although I agree that history is one of the best predictors for future fantasy production and if Ahman numbers will average out what they have always done than you are correct..but my post is intended to say that there are about 10 factors working against Ahman going into 2005 which would make me think his numbers will dip (and continue to dip going into 2006,2007 etc.)

the one thing is we are looking at the average year and not the median year of Ahman Green, I definitely think that the 2003 numbers he has skew the average numbers pretty substantially.

you are predicting him to finish at about the 8th spot (based on last year's draft) would you draft him as the 8th running back?? I absolutely would not

where is he being taken in Mock Drafts?

Hey Righetti,I currently ranked him 10th among RBs and see limited upside beyond that ranking. On one hand, I agree that his 2003 numbers were anomalistic (particularly his carries and YPC). On the other hand, he's shown the ability to put up those kinds of numbers making the reality of another 1500+ yard season more tangible than many other backs who've never hit that mark.

Basically Green slots as one of those RBs who, were I picking late in the 1st round, I would almost hope someone grabs him in front of me so I can avoid making the tough decision of taking him in lockstep with his projected year end totals.

 

[Righetti]

Wood.. Just went over your ranking and its not far off from what I think (except you have Deuce and Priest falling out of the top 10, where as I have both of them in the top 10). I guess you are figuring that either Priest does not stay healthy or LJ will take major carries away, which is fair and also that Deuce’s situation doesn’t improve much, I see more upside in both situations than that but again I think both players bumping down this year is fair. I also have Julius and Rudi above him (though not by much), so we have those three guys (Rudi, Julius and Ahman) all packed into the same basic range. FBG's staff members have him (on average) as the top 10 back but having a range of #7 to #18 (three guys take him at 7 and two take him as low as 18), I haven't looked but that seems like one of the largest differences from top to bottom of any of the Running Backs. So it can be assumed that in certain leagues if you want him you will have to take him as your 10th running back (since 11 out of 16 gave him on their cheat-sheets as a top 10 back). This is too early for me to touch him. Ahman is intriguing because he is only one year removed from one of the better RB seasons we'll ever see. Personally I see that he has a number of factors going against him this year, enough for me to trade him, especially because it is a dynasty league.Just to give the Median numbers for Ahman based on his 5 starting years in Green Bay, the only number that really gets skewed is the rushing yards, for the rest they are pretty close.286 carries1240 yards 57 receptions 393 yards receiving11 total TD’sas compared to his mean numbers293 carries1369 yards56 receptions437 yards receiving12.8 total TD’s

 

[Z-Dog]

I think his days of a top 3 or 4 RB are behind him, but he can still easily be top 10 for a few more seasons.

If CuMar could lead the league in rushing last year, Green can still finish in the top-10, or top-5.Seriously - all that has to happen is they feed him the ball and he stays healthy, and he's a virtual lock to get you 1500+ rushing 4-500 rec and 10-12 TDs. If he stays healthy, that is.

I certainly don't see him suddenly becoming a 3.7 YPC guy from a near 5.0 YPC, like Ricky, but his 2005-2007 health - and not the OL or his prior injuries - is the key issue, IMO.

Hey Marc,You're right of course, but CMart has proven, time and again, that he's an exception among the rules. The fact remains that most backs reach an apex in their career, and then have difficult if not impossible times approaching their career year in future seasons. Green's 2004 season was very much in line with his typical levels of production, it was in fact his 2003 season that appears to have been an outlier for many reasons.

Martin is exceptional in a number of ways, most notably that his best yardage season came in his 10th year in the league. But it's not unusual for backs to fluctuate in performance from year to year, and to drop in and out of the top 10. Jamal Lewis, Edge, Ricky Williams, Fred Taylor, and Tiki Barber all come to mind as players who had success, then fell off b/c of injuries or O-line or other issues, and managed to come back and get into the top-10. Ahman Green is a top candidate for joining this list. Though there are some o-line concerns, I think they are overrated. He's healthy, he plays in a healthy offense, and he's playing for a contract. Plus, he'll come cheap, so I'm on the bandwagon.