Run It Up
Footballguy
Similar rosters to mine, bids all over the place lol.Hopefully he has a good week 2 so some people can move him - beginning to look like its gonna be impossible to get his implied value at this point.
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Alfred Morris, Redskins RB - Value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Run It Up
- Start date
I have Alfred Morris in a PPR league and have sent an offer of Bowe and Morris for B. Marshall. I could see holding on to him since he gets the Rams this week and another good performance should increase his trade value, but anyone who thinks they are getting 12 or more starts out of him this year are just wrong. The combination of Shannahan, his running style, and the number of carriers it takes for him to be productive are a recipe for disaster. I don't think you could get value for him straight up, but maybe as a two for one deal.
Eviloutsider
Footballguy
Just sent out four trades. Looking at the trade evaluator, each trade is a win/win for both teams overall...
Greene/Morris for Jamal Charles
Greene/Morris for S. Jackson
Morris/Richardson/Hardesty for CJ2K/Ringer
Greene/M. Bush/Morris for Sproles/Heyward Bey
Overall, I doubt any will be accepted but these are starting points. Each team that I am trading with needs an extra RB for byes/flex position.
Greene/Morris for Jamal Charles
Greene/Morris for S. Jackson
Morris/Richardson/Hardesty for CJ2K/Ringer
Greene/M. Bush/Morris for Sproles/Heyward Bey
Overall, I doubt any will be accepted but these are starting points. Each team that I am trading with needs an extra RB for byes/flex position.
cstu
Footballguy
The bolded ones are fair, the other two aren't.
Mr. Mojo
Footballguy
I wouldn't make the trade for S Jackson as he is an aging RB who could break down anytime.Not sure about the other ones.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I'm trying to get Wayne or Bowe. So far the only real offer out there is for Cobb though. If I can't get Wayne/Bowe i think i wait a week.
I would only take the third one, the rest are jokes. I don't like Morris at all. He showed nothing. People also need to stop calling Chris Johnson CJ2K. What a joke.
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I only like the charles trade for you. Assuming dynasty amd that this is trent richardson in your offer. Best of luck. Ill try shoppin him next week a bit. My offer will probly be him nicks and beanie for julio. I always look at next year when making trades and feel that mine will be me over paying a bit. But i do have nicks pegged 7th in my. .5ppr dynasty rankings.
Run It Up
Footballguy
They are all upgrades in my opinion, getting rid of the guaranteed disaster that is Greene and the potential disaster of Morris for producers.I'm saying if I was any of the other owners...giving up CJ2K/Ringer for Morris/Richardson/Hardesty is the only one that would interest me.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I think Morris owners are significantly over-estimating his trade value. The fact is that he still has very little name recognition and people that stayed away from that whole situation are still going to have the same view for the most part.
I think Morris owners are only going to get good value if they wait a few more weeks and he can keep putting up decent fantasy numbers. Either that or keep him and trade someone else.
By trying to immediately trade him, everyone just thinks you're trying to dump him before the RBBC kicks in. Nobody wants to give up much at all for a guy that most non-owners see as a guy who could be putting up 3 point performances as a role player a month from now.
If he had shown some electric plays, caught some passes, or shown that he can be a truly productive back, then people would be more interested. But that 3.4 and zero catches just sits there like a big turd in the room.
Here's a list of the RBs that averaged 3.7 or less ypc last year in the top 30 RBs:
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
That's it. And he was ranked 26th in my league. Nobody under 3.7 came even close. And maybe I'm wrong and that number goes up for Morris, but I didn't see anything out of him or the O-line to make me believe that it will rise substantially.
I think Morris owners are only going to get good value if they wait a few more weeks and he can keep putting up decent fantasy numbers. Either that or keep him and trade someone else.
By trying to immediately trade him, everyone just thinks you're trying to dump him before the RBBC kicks in. Nobody wants to give up much at all for a guy that most non-owners see as a guy who could be putting up 3 point performances as a role player a month from now.
If he had shown some electric plays, caught some passes, or shown that he can be a truly productive back, then people would be more interested. But that 3.4 and zero catches just sits there like a big turd in the room.
Here's a list of the RBs that averaged 3.7 or less ypc last year in the top 30 RBs:
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
That's it. And he was ranked 26th in my league. Nobody under 3.7 came even close. And maybe I'm wrong and that number goes up for Morris, but I didn't see anything out of him or the O-line to make me believe that it will rise substantially.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I think folks should be buying Morris. Not selling him. As long as he continues to look decent and stays healthy, Shanahan's history points to Morris receiving a heavy load. And lots of touches are by far the most important thing when it comes to putting up fantasy points.
Khy
Footballguy
ninerfanatic492000
Footballguy
statline may have not been super impressive but his play was pretty good. if his play wasn't adequate shanny would have pulled him since he knows what he has and what he's seen in royster/helu. no reason not to pull him if he didn't like what he seen
jfc can we stop citing one game samples of ypc as anything predictive. its going on all over this board.
cstu
Footballguy
In redraft or in dynasty where he can put you over the top this year, yes, but it's still a shaky long-term forecast. As I mentioned earlier I believe his upside is limited to RB2 numbers due to his lack of receiving. Then again, I've compared him to Arian Foster who had a less impressive debut (13 for 34)
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
So should we also discard his 28 carries as anything predictive?
chinawildman
Footballguy
Morris's value is almost similar to that of a RB whose days as a starter are numbered, and the incumbent starter is due back any time. If he can keep it going a few more weeks, his value is sure to rise. But then again, his owners may start to feel more confident in him as well and we will have all forgotten the days of Shanahanigans.
His scouting reports seem to indicate that he is a capable receiver and above average blocker which bodes well for his long term prospects. Though he wasn't a target in the passing game most rookie RBs do not play a large part in that role right from the get go.
His scouting reports seem to indicate that he is a capable receiver and above average blocker which bodes well for his long term prospects. Though he wasn't a target in the passing game most rookie RBs do not play a large part in that role right from the get go.
Run It Up
Footballguy
I dont think anyone here is over-valuing Morris.
Not a whole lot of information available, but what information that is available suggests his implied value is much higher than most are suggesting his current value is.
Obviously the same people that avoided the situtation are gonna inherently be skeptical. Anyone that knows shanahan is gonna wait a few weeks. People that need RBs still cant afford to wait.
Not a whole lot of information available, but what information that is available suggests his implied value is much higher than most are suggesting his current value is.
Obviously the same people that avoided the situtation are gonna inherently be skeptical. Anyone that knows shanahan is gonna wait a few weeks. People that need RBs still cant afford to wait.
chinawildman
Footballguy
I'll play devil's advocate here and say that at one point in the early 4th quarter, Morris had rushed 20 times for 90 yds for a 4.5 ypc. The rest of his 8 carries went for less than 8 yds total as the skins tried to milk the clock to preserve the win and the saints sold out to stop the run.Around the end of the 3rd and early 4th, Morris got room to run, he showed surprising quickness and ability to outrun defenders to the edge as well as making guys in the 2nd level miss. He clearly runs much better when NOT in shotgun formation as evidenced in the 3rd quarter when the skins switched to zone blocking on edge runs. Though he wasn't a part of the passing gameplan, he looked good when asked to block and by all accounts in scouting reports i've read, is a good receiver. Couple that with RG3's emergence, I think Morris's value has plenty of room to grow.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Morris's value is going to increase, not decrease.
pyite76
Footballguy
This is what I think as well. Picked up Morris off waivers as an UDFA after our rookie draft in a 12 team non PPR dynasty.After week 1 he is still my #4 RB (Start 3) behind, MJD, Gore, and CJohnson, but I have a feeling Morris will be taking CJohnsons spot in the lineup soon.Caveat: I was offered a mid range 2nd rounder for 2013 in trade. I thought about countering with the 2nd rounder + Juron Criner, but I decided to wait another week. This means that Morris will pull a hammy in the 1st quarter and Helu will take the job. We'll see what happens.'Apple Jack said:
Norcalhoya
Footballguy
0.5 ppr two keeper league.
Proposed McFadden and Morris for McCoy. He is going to accept. Fair?
Proposed McFadden and Morris for McCoy. He is going to accept. Fair?
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I think it's fair but I would rather be receiving McFadden/Morris. I think McFadden will outperform McCoy by himself if he remains healthy. If Andy Reid won't run the ball against Cleveland, I don't think he has intentions of running it against anyone. Also, I think the loss of Peters will hurt McCoy when they face stronger defenses. In Oakland, everything goes through McFadden. Although he'll probably get hurt at some point.
Run It Up
Footballguy
I think its fair if not leaning in favor of the Mccoy owner.But hes getting heaped in risk. So I guess that makes it even more fair.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Also, during that 20 for 90 stretch he had a 17 yard run called back. I don't recall if the hold sprung him or not, but if not, that would've put him at 21 for 107 or about 5.1 YPC.5.1 YPC and 2 TDs is a fantastic first day as an NFL RB. More importantly, as others have already stated, he just looked the part. Stout and strong with decent burst.'chinawildman said:
Norcalhoya
Footballguy
Having watched a large part of the game. The raiders looked terrible against a mediocre team. That O-line looked terrible. I think mcfadden will get plenty of touches (both on the ground and in the air), just not the yards and the scores. McCoy got 20 carries against the browns, that's plenty.
starks2000
Footballguy
I traded him away for Decker. I wish you well, Alfred, wish you well.
boonesfarm4me
Footballguy
So what happens next week when Royster or Helu get the start and do extremely well? I would venture to say Morris' value will decrease correct? If anyone thinks that this is not possible, of course it is. The main reason owners are trying to sell Morris is because it can happen. No one should be buying a Skins' RB before week 2 or 3.. I'm actually surprised owners would wanting to buy. Probably Morris owners trying to dump him before week 2. I may be wrong and Morris could have a great season, just looking at the big picture here. I'm not knocking any of the players, they all seem to do well when given the chance. It's the Coach, plain and simple for me. I do not own any of them and never will. Sell, Sell, Sell!!'Apple Jack said:
cstu
Footballguy
Shanahan has shown in the past that they he sticks with RB's until they get hurt or perform extremely poorly. Morris did neither so he will be the starter. Instead of relying on blather for information, look at what Shanahan has actually done, he's not really that complicated. My main concern with Morris is that the schedule gets more difficult after the Rams, but not about whether he'll keep the starting job.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Obviously its not concrete, but almost immediately after the game Morris was praised for his performance and was named the week 2 starter.
I posted in another thread that people should be buying Morris.
Shanahan has a history of working rookies in slowly, very slowly. The exceptions with the Redskins have been Trent Williams, Ryan Kerrigan, and RGIII. They are all ultra talented and expected to start on day one. And the fourth exception is now Alfred Morris.
Morris did not have great stats in the first half. It would have been easy to justify putting in Royster or Helu to see if they had a hotter hand. Also, there were a number of mis-timed running plays, where a fake hand off hit Morris' leg and caused a fumble, one where they missed the hand off completely, and another where on a fake, Morris and RGIII got their feet tangled and RGIII went to the ground. Yet Shanahan stuck with Morris through it all.
Terrell Davis did not get this much work his first game. Clinton Portis did not get this much work his first game. Mike Shanahan sees something in Alfred Morris and loves it. Barring injury, Morris will be the starter.
Shanahan has a history of working rookies in slowly, very slowly. The exceptions with the Redskins have been Trent Williams, Ryan Kerrigan, and RGIII. They are all ultra talented and expected to start on day one. And the fourth exception is now Alfred Morris.
Morris did not have great stats in the first half. It would have been easy to justify putting in Royster or Helu to see if they had a hotter hand. Also, there were a number of mis-timed running plays, where a fake hand off hit Morris' leg and caused a fumble, one where they missed the hand off completely, and another where on a fake, Morris and RGIII got their feet tangled and RGIII went to the ground. Yet Shanahan stuck with Morris through it all.
Terrell Davis did not get this much work his first game. Clinton Portis did not get this much work his first game. Mike Shanahan sees something in Alfred Morris and loves it. Barring injury, Morris will be the starter.
Seasick Sailor
Footballguy
It Is exactly this mentality that should lead all Morris owners to hold on to him. There are those who will always believe the above regardless of the facts that show otherwise. Barring injuries Morris is much more likely to run the table as their starter than not. I'm just glad I got a solid RB2 for a song. His real value is that he allows you to sell your previous RB2 or Flex player to fill other holes.
just_want_2_win
Footballguy
I'm in a league where I've seen owners bid a large chuck of their waiver budget on players like Brandon Jackson (was that a year or two ago?).
However, I was able to get Morris this morning for a mere $9 ($100 waiver budget for the season). I think the other owners were turned off of him by the fact 1) he plays under Shanny, 2) did what he did vs. the Saints, who sport a defense that isn't terribly stout and came off a very tumultuous offseason, and 3) is in a RBBC.
At any rate I'm happy I got him so cheap. I did a throw away bid thinking I wouldn't even get him (there were 4 teams I thought would bid high for him).
I'm curious when other owners got him -- in the draft? Waivers/free agency prior to Week 1? Or did they just get him off waivers or in a trade after his big game vs. N.O.?
However, I was able to get Morris this morning for a mere $9 ($100 waiver budget for the season). I think the other owners were turned off of him by the fact 1) he plays under Shanny, 2) did what he did vs. the Saints, who sport a defense that isn't terribly stout and came off a very tumultuous offseason, and 3) is in a RBBC.
At any rate I'm happy I got him so cheap. I did a throw away bid thinking I wouldn't even get him (there were 4 teams I thought would bid high for him).
I'm curious when other owners got him -- in the draft? Waivers/free agency prior to Week 1? Or did they just get him off waivers or in a trade after his big game vs. N.O.?
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Instinctive
Footballguy
Amazed that people still undervalue RBs because of the mystical Shannahan narrative. If you pay attention each year, you find that you constantly get solid RB production that is undervalued by the market.
I'd be a buyer if I hadn't already had him on my teams and starting.
I'd be a buyer if I hadn't already had him on my teams and starting.
Wat? Helu and Royster getting two carries a piece is RBBC?
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Wow, $9? Our weekly bidding ends in a couple hrs (we use blind bidding only, no waiver wire). Even w/ the Shanny factor, it'll tale probably 3x that much to win a bid in my league.
Eviloutsider
Footballguy
During his bust out preseason game for me.
just_want_2_win
Footballguy
It's not...but I think Week 1's being perceived by many as an aberration and their thinking is that in reality there is an RBBC in DC. I'll admit heading into the season that I wouldn't touch a Redskin RB because of this line of thinking. I've been acquainted with Shanny RB madness myself as far back as the days of Rueben Droughns and as recently as with Ryan Torain. I wouldn't have been too upset to have not gotten Morris because of his lackluster YPC average but definitely am pleased that I unexpectedly got him cheap. And this is in a competitive 12-team league; I think each of the teams in it has a shot at this point.
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kutta
Footballguy
Me too. I drafted him in three leagues.
foxco
Footballguy
Problem is you have to use up 3 roster spots for Washington RBs, and even then it may not be enough.
Instinctive
Footballguy
What madness? He picks a starter, the guy starts until injury or major underperformance. In fact, I'd say that just anecdotally, it's really only injury. I rode Torain for or 3 separate stretches in his career where we was a top 15 weekly play until injury each time. By all means - keep spreading the "Shanny RB" myths and misinformation, but you should take advantage of that and grab his guy(s), because they ALWAYS seem to produce, whoever it is. And it isn't unclear who starts - just like this week. They said Morris would, he did, and he got 28 of 32 RB carries. Seems pretty cut and dried, even back to the year of Selvin Young (injury) Ryan Torain (injury) and Peyton Hillis (injury) - each of whom started and got the ball consistently until injury.You guys are crazy to perpetuate this RB myth, but at least take advantage of the fact that the myth is out there.
In a deep league it doesn't matter, and in a shallow league, the prevalent thinking means all you have to do is be quickest/smartest on the WW/FA pool each week. Fo rinstance, I drafted Royster super late, someone else picked Helu in the mid rounds, and I grabbed Morris leading up to week 1 and started him. Royster is in the FA pool, and I think Helu got dropped as well - 12 teams and 16 roster spots...for years now I just play the wire for whomever pops up and play that guy til he gets hurt.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
The problem is that you rarely know which RB is going to give "solid RB production" until 3-4 games into the season.How many times as Shanahan's Week 1 starter been the team's top rusher for the year??
