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See Kevin Barlow Bust thread above.
True. It's not like he wasn't given the opportunity in Denver. He couldn't beat out the back up in a run friendly team with a great line and now he's going to make good behind a suspect run blocking line? I wouldn't get too excited about it.Tatum Bell could not succeed in Denver how in the world do you think he is going to succeed in Detriot?Also KJ might be back and they have T.J. Duckett.
Yes it is out of the question.Oh, and he not only failed to win the starting job, but he failed to win it 3 yrs in a row. He was given every opportunity. Now, he definitely has some value, but don't get carried away.
The dude averaged almost 5 yards per carry. Ignore him at your own risk but he will be a RB2 this year and score between RB17 to RB 22.
WOW just WOW. He scores 2 TDs for Denver last year and you think he is going to get 4 times that for Detriot.And almost 400 more yards rushing. Hmmm. Lets compare the two teams1. Denvers OL is far better that Detriot.2. Denver is a run oriented offense which has been known to make backup fullbacks into NFL leaders in rushing. Detriot hasn't lead the league since BS retired.
He said 1400 TOTAL yards. In that offense it may be something like 900 rushing and 500 receiving. That is a little too high, IMO, but definitely more reasonable than 1400 rushing.I agree on the TD's, though. No way T-Bell gets 8 TD's with Duckett around for goalline and the great WR's they have. I'm predicting that he'll get plenty of yards, but few TD's.
I think people should be careful regarding the Lions RBs. There is nothing here that suggests KJ misses the entire season, and if he doesn't, Bell will not have a whole lot of value.
Yeah I was wondering when/how KJ got written off. What's the latest on him anyway? Frankly he might be the value play, esp in deeper rosters.If - I say if - Bell starts all or almost all the season, he'll definitely get 1000 and a handfulla TDs. Teams will be so worried about the pass happy Martz he should have some nice holes to run through, even w/that so-so OL (I disagree that it's so pathetic). And those who think Bell was so useless last year in DEN might want to have another look.
The Lions, and the beat writers think it's 50-50 that he starts the year on the regular season PUP. I haven't seen anything that suggest he will not play this year. They have said all along his recovery is well ahead of schedule. Todays news is the most encouraging thing I have heard thus far. My personal opinion is it's closer to 90-10 of him beginning on PUP because they may want to err on the side of caution. But this is nothing but speculation right now. Nobody knows. The 90-10 is just my opinion, so note the disclaimer there. I also believe (my opinion only) that he plays this year and is effective. I think it will be during the last couple of weeks until we really know.I think KJ is a great value in dynasty leagues, as some have written him off already.
This sounds eerily familiar to what people said about Edge in Zona with Coach Green and Bolden and Fitz.The bottom line is that the OL is bad and KJ might not miss any regular season (and even if he does is might be RBBC with TJD). Tatum Bell hasn't proven himself at all and had a golden opportunity to do so in Denver. Name one part of the situation in Detriot that will be better for him than it was in Denver.But hey if you like the guys best of luck.
If there's still no indication on whether or not KJ is going to play, how can you rank one or the other higher? If the situation was clear (i.e. KJ is definitely playing or definitely not playing), then I'm sure you'd see a move up for the one positively impacted. But, as this still has yet to be sorted out and it's ugly at best right now, both have to be lower. To rank one higher without this information would be a disservice.
The offensive line is much better and deeper than last year. They have gotten solid reviews from the local beat writers.
The reason I haven't ranked them higher is because we don't know what is up with Kevin Jones. When he plays makes a big difference. I can't justify ranking either higher until we know what will happen with Jones.
Oh come on. Do you know whether or not Portis will play in the first game of the season? A bus could hit his knee tomorrow. You never know FOR SURE whether or not someone will play. Thats why you rank them based on your best guess...its called a projection for a reason. Not ranking people because you're not 100% certain of something would be a disservice
If there's a 50/50 chance of KJ playing, then bump him down on the list but you can still project him to have a better or worse season than Bell.
You're not getting it. Unless both are taking up the same ranking spot, one is higher than the other. But neither is going to be high because there is just no indication as to who is going to play. Same reason that LenDale White and Chris Brown are also low on the list as well as Brandon Jackson and Morency. I'm not sure how else to explain that. If word came out that any of those guys were the starter, then you'd see an appropriate move up the rankings, similarly to what you saw with Norwood (albeit prematurely). Comparing any of these guys to Portis who could get hit by a bus shows you're not really understanding what was said. See Anthony's post above.Oh come on. Do you know whether or not Portis will play in the first game of the season? A bus could hit his knee tomorrow. You never know FOR SURE whether or not someone will play. Thats why you rank them based on your best guess...its called a projection for a reason. Not ranking people because you're not 100% certain of something would be a disserviceIf there's a 50/50 chance of KJ playing, then bump him down on the list but you can still project him to have a better or worse season than Bell.
Say WHAT?Thats why you rank them based on your best guess...its called a projection for a reason. Not ranking people because you're not 100% certain of something would be a disservice
Crippler the ranking itself indicates that the situation is not clear. You would need a different set of rankings for each possible scenario (FOR EVERY PLAYER) to give you want you want. remember drafting it about taking risks.Say WHAT?Thats why you rank them based on your best guess...its called a projection for a reason. Not ranking people because you're not 100% certain of something would be a disservice
I think it's more like- the OL is fair- KJ is likely to miss at least part of the season- true he didn't dazzle last year, but 1000 yds when you're splitting time isn't so terrible, even in DENI'm not saying draft him in anything but very late rounds - but given a choice between him and guys like Duckett or Dayne or some other schlep backups (OK Dayne is a bit extreme), he's well worth considering.
If one or the other is getting most of the carries, you're right. But if they end up splitting carries almost down the middle, thats 2 wasted picks, which scares me too much to draft both. I think you have to take a gamble on one or the other and hope for the best.
The problem is there is no way to know if any 1 back will get 1/2 the carries. Thus it is similar to the TEN RB situation in that people are predicting total yds and TDs for the team and making assumptions that 1 back will get most of it. I'll say this clearly...divide by 3 whatever you think the team will produce on the ground and let that be your floor. If you are comfortable drafting one of these types of RBs with that floor then do it, but you will see the ADP for that floor is overvalued unless you are drafting the 3rd guy(Duckett, Henry-TEN). Much better value on teams with far less questions. IMO of course.
I think that's a good point, routilla. I think the Lions running game will be ok to pretty good. But I have a hard time getting real excited about Jones or Bell individually.J
FYI, minor thing...last I heard, Mulitelo is playing left guard. The line last year was bad to begin with, and was ravaged by injury. Between the two guard spots and right tackle, the Lions had twelve players who started more than one game. They have 3rd stringers playing, including THREE 3rd stringers playing the last few games. The run blocking was bad, the pass blocking was bad. There was no continuity and no chemistry. When people say the run game was bad, the reason was not Kevin Jones, it was the line. 3.9 YPC behind that line would be 4.4 behind an average line.
Thanks for the correction, and great job on the Lions camp thread. The reason I can make a competent post about the Detroit OL is because of all the info in there.
This brings up an interesting dilema regarding strategy. Let's just say that it plays out the way you suggested and Bell is FF gold for 8-12 games. What then? Do you enjoy the benefits of having him early only to lose him and that advantage during your playoffs? Or do look for better options that will help during the FF playoffs?For me, I'm more concerned about weeks 12-16. Having the scoring then will be far more important to having a chance to win the championship. Of course getting there first is a good idea. But if I can't win it all then why bother? At least that's how I feel.
Mike Martz have been raving about Tater.
Some will joke that it's a ploy to motivate KJ. But there's a real good chance that's exactly what Martz wants. If the Bell fits......
In a redraft the Shark move is to avoid both these guys. Just because a coach raves in preseason doesn't mean that much so I wouldn't get too excited about that.
KJ will not play this year. Or if he does it will be late.
