All that glitters is not gold (1 Viewer)

[Portis 26]

We all tend to get a little over-excited about draft prospects at this time of year. Sometimes that excitement makes us a little dizzy and lose touch with reality.

We forget that about half of all top draft picks turn out to be busts.

You know it's going to happen. Some of the guys that we get so excited about are going to turn out to be duds.

We just don't know who yet.

So here is a cynical yet humorous and not entirely serious look at some of the 2007 draft prospects.

ADRIAN PETERSON

THE HYPE: The next Jim Brown or Eric Dickerson. An amazing package of size, strength and moves.

THE REALITY: The next Curtis Enis or William Green. Big guys who ran over people in college get hurt in the pros.

JAMARCUS RUSSELL

THE HYPE: The next Daunte Culpepper, the great former Viking QB

THE REALITY: The present Daunte Culpepper, the washed out current Miami QB

CALVIN JOHNSON

THE HYPE: The next Randy Moss or Terrell Owens

THE REALITY: The current Keyshawn Johnson, and not in a good way. Or even the former JJ Stokes. Just because a guy is big doesn't make him great

MARSHAWN LYNCH

THE HYPE: The next Shaun Alexander

THE REALITY: The next DeShaun Foster. Speedy won't cut it if you're injury prone

BRADY QUINN

THE HYPE: The next Joe Montana or Tom Brady

THE REALITY: The next Rick Mirer (this is so apt on so many levels I don't even know where to start)

DWAYNE JARRETT

THE HYPE: The next Terrell Owens

THE REALITY: The next Koren Robinson. Or David Terrell. Big doesn't always mean better.

MICHAEL BUSH

THE HYPE: The next Jerome Bettis

THE REALITY: The next TJ Duckett

 

[the turnip]

Intersting take on the players but you might want to compare Meshawn Johnsons 40 times with Calvin Johnsons. Night and day difference. Calvin is not only big he is fast. He is not a plodding, over the middle possession receiver. The only thing that ever went fast on Meshawn was his mouth. I'll always remember his interview from years ago, right after Vinnie went down for the year. No talk about the team, no talk about pulling together, no concern for his QB, just MY numbers are going to be hurt by this. Classic.

 

[djcolts]

BRADY QUINNTHE HYPE: The next Joe Montana or Tom BradyTHE REALITY: The next Rick Mirer (this is so apt on so many levels I don't even know where to start)

Quinn may be a bust, but to me his potential problems seem different than Mirer's. I saw the "Top 10 busts of all Time" show on NFN last night - and they explain why he struggled badly after his rookie year. 1) He never improved 2) He never got much of a grasp of the offense and 3) He couldn't throw to his left. I think Quinn can throw to his left, and has enough of a work ethic to learn whatever offense he's in. He may still be a bust for other reasons, but not in the same way Mirer was a bust.

 

[Fiddles]

sounds like you are throwing #### at a wall and seeing what sticks

you are saying all calvin johnson has going for him is his size?

 

[Buc Dude]

The Brady Quinn reality may be right on. How about:

JOE THOMAS

HYPE - The next John Ogden, an All Pro for the next 10 years.

REALITY - A serviceable lineman ala Robert Gallery.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I think the reality on Jarrett should be Mike Williams. Robinson was a burner.

 

[aposulli]

MICHAEL BUSH

THE HYPE: The next Jerome Bettis

THE REALITY: The next TJ Duckett

upside: The next Bo Jacksondownside: The next Brandon Jacobs

 

[fruity pebbles]

MICHAEL BUSH

THE HYPE: The next Jerome Bettis

THE REALITY: The next TJ Duckett

upside: The next Bo Jacksondownside: The next Brandon Jacobs

Bo ran a 4.6 forty?

 

[Ilov80s]

MICHAEL BUSH

THE HYPE: The next Jerome Bettis

THE REALITY: The next TJ Duckett

upside: The next Bo Jacksondownside: The next Brandon Jacobs

Bo ran a 4.6 forty?

Maybe with midget on his back.

 

[Fallerjw]

MICHAEL BUSH

THE HYPE: The next Jerome Bettis

THE REALITY: The next TJ Duckett

upside: The next Bo Jacksondownside: The next Brandon Jacobs

Bo ran a 4.6 forty?

Maybe with midget on his back.

I loved watching that guy. It was such a shame he got injured.

 

[jwb]

Intersting take on the players but you might want to compare Meshawn Johnsons 40 times with Calvin Johnsons. Night and day difference. Calvin is not only big he is fast. He is not a plodding, over the middle possession receiver.

IIRC, Johnson was not thought of as a possession receiver when they drafted him. Indeed, that's what he turned out to be, but much more was expected of him coming out of college.

 

[aposulli]

MICHAEL BUSH

THE HYPE: The next Jerome Bettis

THE REALITY: The next TJ Duckett

upside: The next Bo Jacksondownside: The next Brandon Jacobs

Bo ran a 4.6 forty?

Maybe with midget on his back.

Or a broken leg?

 

[CalBear]

MARSHAWN LYNCHTHE HYPE: The next Shaun AlexanderTHE REALITY: The next DeShaun Foster. Speedy won't cut it if you're injury prone

I don't think Lynch looks anything at all like Alexander or Foster. And how do you figure he's injury-prone?

 

[aposulli]

Intersting take on the players but you might want to compare Meshawn Johnsons 40 times with Calvin Johnsons. Night and day difference. Calvin is not only big he is fast. He is not a plodding, over the middle possession receiver.

IIRC, Johnson was not thought of as a possession receiver when they drafted him. Indeed, that's what he turned out to be, but much more was expected of him coming out of college.

#1 pick

 

[Fallerjw]

Intersting take on the players but you might want to compare Meshawn Johnsons 40 times with Calvin Johnsons. Night and day difference. Calvin is not only big he is fast. He is not a plodding, over the middle possession receiver.

IIRC, Johnson was not thought of as a possession receiver when they drafted him. Indeed, that's what he turned out to be, but much more was expected of him coming out of college.

If he gets another 49 rec 300 yards and 5 TDs he'll rank as followsRec: 10 All timeYds: 21 All timeTDs: 30 All timeThose are pretty good numbers for a possession receiver.

 

[ImTheScientist]

sounds like you are throwing #### at a wall and seeing what sticksyou are saying all calvin johnson has going for him is his size?

 

[J-Rock]

Already 2 mentions of 40 times in this thread in terms of comparing players.

IIRC Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 and he turned out to be a pretty good WR. Don Bebe ran a 4.2 and averaged less than 400 yards per season.

IMO 40 times are drastically overrated.

For the record, Bo ran a 4.12.

 

[CalBear]

Intersting take on the players but you might want to compare Meshawn Johnsons 40 times with Calvin Johnsons. Night and day difference. Calvin is not only big he is fast. He is not a plodding, over the middle possession receiver.

IIRC, Johnson was not thought of as a possession receiver when they drafted him. Indeed, that's what he turned out to be, but much more was expected of him coming out of college.

If he gets another 49 rec 300 yards and 5 TDs he'll rank as followsRec: 10 All timeYds: 21 All timeTDs: 30 All timeThose are pretty good numbers for a possession receiver.

It could be argued that Keyshawn had a better career than Art Monk. Maybe not worth the #1 overall pick, especially with Marvin Harrison in the same draft, but he's had quite a successful career. If he weren't such a jerk, it might have been even more successful. Certainly he was a better pick than Kevin Hardy, Cedric Jones, Lawrence Phillips, Terry Glenn, Tim Biakabatuka, or Ricky Dudley, to look at some of the rest of the top 10 that year.

 

[CalBear]

Already 2 mentions of 40 times in this thread in terms of comparing players. IIRC Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 and he turned out to be a pretty good WR. Don Bebe ran a 4.2 and averaged less than 400 yards per season.IMO 40 times are drastically overrated.For the record, Bo ran a 4.12.

40 times are particularly meaningless when you just make them up. Rice didn't run a 4.7 and Bo didn't run a 4.12, not by anything approximating reasonable standards.

 

[J-Rock]

Already 2 mentions of 40 times in this thread in terms of comparing players.

IIRC Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 and he turned out to be a pretty good WR. Don Bebe ran a 4.2 and averaged less than 400 yards per season.

IMO 40 times are drastically overrated.

For the record, Bo ran a 4.12.

40 times are particularly meaningless when you just make them up. Rice didn't run a 4.7 and Bo didn't run a 4.12, not by anything approximating reasonable standards.

"Rice's 1984 record-breaking season at Mississippi Valley caught the attention of many NFL scouts, but his speed (reportedly only 4.7 in the 40-yard dash) kept most wary, although there were apparently at least two exceptions: the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Rice scroll down to "Professional Career"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40_yard_dash#Best_times

Prove me wrong.

 

[CalBear]

Already 2 mentions of 40 times in this thread in terms of comparing players.

IIRC Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 and he turned out to be a pretty good WR. Don Bebe ran a 4.2 and averaged less than 400 yards per season.

IMO 40 times are drastically overrated.

For the record, Bo ran a 4.12.

40 times are particularly meaningless when you just make them up. Rice didn't run a 4.7 and Bo didn't run a 4.12, not by anything approximating reasonable standards.

"Rice's 1984 record-breaking season at Mississippi Valley caught the attention of many NFL scouts, but his speed (reportedly only 4.7 in the 40-yard dash) kept most wary, although there were apparently at least two exceptions: the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Rice scroll down to "Professional Career"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40_yard_dash#Best_times

Prove me wrong.

Gee, maybe I can "prove" you wrong by editing wikipedia myself. Or I can point out that the second article you list says Rice ran a "4.6 or 4.7".

 

[cstu]

BRADY QUINN

THE HYPE: The next Joe Montana or Tom Brady

THE REALITY: The next Rick Mirer (this is so apt on so many levels I don't even know where to start)

Other than they both went to ND, I don't see the comparison.

 

[ChrisCooleyFan]

M. Bush = E. Shelton

 

[LHUCKS]

I love this type of commentary...a little realism is nice.

That being said, some of these comparisons are ridiculous. For example, Lynch and Alexander are completely different backs.

 

[J-Rock]

Already 2 mentions of 40 times in this thread in terms of comparing players.

IIRC Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 and he turned out to be a pretty good WR. Don Bebe ran a 4.2 and averaged less than 400 yards per season.

IMO 40 times are drastically overrated.

For the record, Bo ran a 4.12.

40 times are particularly meaningless when you just make them up. Rice didn't run a 4.7 and Bo didn't run a 4.12, not by anything approximating reasonable standards.

"Rice's 1984 record-breaking season at Mississippi Valley caught the attention of many NFL scouts, but his speed (reportedly only 4.7 in the 40-yard dash) kept most wary, although there were apparently at least two exceptions: the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Rice scroll down to "Professional Career"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40_yard_dash#Best_times

Prove me wrong.

Gee, maybe I can "prove" you wrong by editing wikipedia myself. Or I can point out that the second article you list says Rice ran a "4.6 or 4.7".

I would say speculation or maybe .10 of a second qualifies as "approximating reasonable standards"Why in the world would I go out of my way to edit Wikipedia (wasn't aware this is even possible) to make a point like this. I am 100% open to being proven wrong on this. Bo's 40 time is not critical to my original point. If the number is wrong it's not my error it's what was published online.

I haven't seen anything anywhere that states Bo ran a 4.6. I've seen some say he once ran a 4.08, and the most common is a 4.1

I've done my research and reported my findings. You've done nothing but argue based on ??? ???

Let me know when you find some evidence to back your self up.

 

[CalBear]

Why in the world would I go out of my way to edit Wikipedia (wasn't aware this is even possible) to make a point like this. I am 100% open to being proven wrong on this. Bo's 40 time is not critical to my original point. If the number is wrong it's not my error it's what was published online. I haven't seen anything anywhere that states Bo ran a 4.6. I've seen some say he once ran a 4.08, and the most common is a 4.1 I've done my research and reported my findings. You've done nothing but argue based on ??? ???Let me know when you find some evidence to back your self up.

Urban legends do not qualify as "findings." Everyone repeats things like "Rice ran a 4.7" or "Bo ran a 4.12" because they sound good; they get into Wikipedia because someone heard it and put it in there, not because there's any verifiable fact behind them.The 50-meter dash world record is 5.56 (Donovan Bailey). If you assume that the speed at the end of the 50 meter is equivalent to the speed for the rest of the race (which it isn't--it's faster), that time equates to a 4.07 time in the 40-yard. The 50-yard record is 5.22; that equates to 4.17 in the 40-yard. The fastest 40-yard dash ever electronically recorded was Maurice Greene during his 9.82-second 100-meter dash; he ran it in 4.21 (not including reaction time). Bo Jackson was fast, but he wasn't the fastest sprinter on the planet. It is completely implausible that Bo Jackson ran a 4.12 under the same standards applied to track and field athletes, and it wasn't even under the same standards applied to NFL athletes at the combine today. But that doesn't stop people from repeating it and putting it in Wikipedia as if 4.12 is a meaningful number.

 

[WhoDat]

Bo Jackson is the only player besides OJ Simpson to have a perfect predraft grade. It is noted and marked in Next Man Up and The Draft: A Year Inside the NFL's Search for Talent . Split hairs over his 40 time all day long but he is only one of two players to score an 8.

As far as M. Bush, he couldn't carry Jackson's pads from practice. I really hope that Bush recovers from his injury and I wish him well in the NFL but he and Jackson are in two completely different worlds in terms of talent.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

MICHAEL BUSH

THE HYPE: The next Jerome Bettis

THE REALITY: The next TJ Duckett

upside: The next Bo Jacksondownside: The next Brandon Jacobs

You're high on Bush?

 

[J-Rock]

Why in the world would I go out of my way to edit Wikipedia (wasn't aware this is even possible) to make a point like this. I am 100% open to being proven wrong on this. Bo's 40 time is not critical to my original point. If the number is wrong it's not my error it's what was published online. I haven't seen anything anywhere that states Bo ran a 4.6. I've seen some say he once ran a 4.08, and the most common is a 4.1 I've done my research and reported my findings. You've done nothing but argue based on ??? :X ???Let me know when you find some evidence to back your self up.

Urban legends do not qualify as "findings." Everyone repeats things like "Rice ran a 4.7" or "Bo ran a 4.12" because they sound good; they get into Wikipedia because someone heard it and put it in there, not because there's any verifiable fact behind them.The 50-meter dash world record is 5.56 (Donovan Bailey). If you assume that the speed at the end of the 50 meter is equivalent to the speed for the rest of the race (which it isn't--it's faster), that time equates to a 4.07 time in the 40-yard. The 50-yard record is 5.22; that equates to 4.17 in the 40-yard. The fastest 40-yard dash ever electronically recorded was Maurice Greene during his 9.82-second 100-meter dash; he ran it in 4.21 (not including reaction time). Bo Jackson was fast, but he wasn't the fastest sprinter on the planet. It is completely implausible that Bo Jackson ran a 4.12 under the same standards applied to track and field athletes, and it wasn't even under the same standards applied to NFL athletes at the combine today. But that doesn't stop people from repeating it and putting it in Wikipedia as if 4.12 is a meaningful number.

 

[Portis 26]

BRADY QUINN

THE HYPE: The next Joe Montana or Tom Brady

THE REALITY: The next Rick Mirer (this is so apt on so many levels I don't even know where to start)

Other than they both went to ND, I don't see the comparison.

Both were over-hyped in college based on their success at ND: Mirer flopped in the NFL because he didn't have the right smarts or a big enough arm and neither does Quinn.

 

[Sleeper 43]

sounds like you are throwing #### at a wall and seeing what sticksyou are saying all calvin johnson has going for him is his size?

I was thinking pretty much the same thing .

 

[Portis 26]

sounds like you are throwing #### at a wall and seeing what sticksyou are saying all calvin johnson has going for him is his size?

I was thinking pretty much the same thing .

As I said, this is a "cynical yet humorous and not entirely serious look at some of the 2007 draft prospects"... of course Calvin Johnson is a great player. Is he necessarily as good as the hype says? That's the question.

 

[EBF]

Top prospects are rarely as good as the hype, but I'll be surprised if either Peterson or Johnson busts. They were monster producers in college, they pass the eyeball test, and they put on a show at the combine.

Lynch and Jarrett are a notch below the aforementioned duo, but they're still solid prospects.

I'm not as optimistic about the others.

 

[Portis 26]

Top prospects are rarely as good as the hype, but I'll be surprised if either Peterson or Johnson busts. They were monster producers in college, they pass the eyeball test, and they put on a show at the combine. Lynch and Jarrett are a notch below the aforementioned duo, but they're still solid prospects. I'm not as optimistic about the others.

Not saying you are wrong, but I heard Curtis Enis and David Terrell described in almost exactly the same terms as "can't miss" prospects... so you never know.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Why in the world would I go out of my way to edit Wikipedia (wasn't aware this is even possible) to make a point like this. I am 100% open to being proven wrong on this. Bo's 40 time is not critical to my original point. If the number is wrong it's not my error it's what was published online. I haven't seen anything anywhere that states Bo ran a 4.6. I've seen some say he once ran a 4.08, and the most common is a 4.1 I've done my research and reported my findings. You've done nothing but argue based on ??? ???Let me know when you find some evidence to back your self up.

Urban legends do not qualify as "findings." Everyone repeats things like "Rice ran a 4.7" or "Bo ran a 4.12" because they sound good; they get into Wikipedia because someone heard it and put it in there, not because there's any verifiable fact behind them.The 50-meter dash world record is 5.56 (Donovan Bailey). If you assume that the speed at the end of the 50 meter is equivalent to the speed for the rest of the race (which it isn't--it's faster), that time equates to a 4.07 time in the 40-yard. The 50-yard record is 5.22; that equates to 4.17 in the 40-yard. The fastest 40-yard dash ever electronically recorded was Maurice Greene during his 9.82-second 100-meter dash; he ran it in 4.21 (not including reaction time). Bo Jackson was fast, but he wasn't the fastest sprinter on the planet. It is completely implausible that Bo Jackson ran a 4.12 under the same standards applied to track and field athletes, and it wasn't even under the same standards applied to NFL athletes at the combine today. But that doesn't stop people from repeating it and putting it in Wikipedia as if 4.12 is a meaningful number.

why is it implausible that Bo Jackson was one of the fastest men in the world? I'm not saying he was, but I fail to see why its implausible. Theres a lot more money in football and baseball than running track so its very possible that the world's fastest man would choose those 2 over the latter.

 

[Assani Fisher]

sounds like you are throwing #### at a wall and seeing what sticksyou are saying all calvin johnson has going for him is his size?

I was thinking pretty much the same thing .

No offense OP, but I thought this was a really good idea but you didn't execute it well. Just reading the thread title, I was excited to read an in depth and honest look at the faults of the top rookies.

 

[EBF]

Top prospects are rarely as good as the hype, but I'll be surprised if either Peterson or Johnson busts. They were monster producers in college, they pass the eyeball test, and they put on a show at the combine. Lynch and Jarrett are a notch below the aforementioned duo, but they're still solid prospects. I'm not as optimistic about the others.

Not saying you are wrong, but I heard Curtis Enis and David Terrell described in almost exactly the same terms as "can't miss" prospects... so you never know.

Terrell had hype, but he wasn't really a bulletproof prospect. He was a solid college player who played for a high profile program and got overdrafted. It happens. Peterson and Johnson are rare because they pass almost every metric:High draft picks? Check.Combine? Check.Highlights? Check.College production? Check.Character? Check. There's no such thing as a sure thing, but these two are very close. Johnson is the best looking WR to enter the draft in at least 2-3 years. Peterson is the second best RB of the past five years behind only Reggie Bush. I feel like this is a rare year with two truly top shelf prospects at the top of the draft. Every year I go out on a limb for 1-2 players and say they won't fail unless they get injured. I feel that way about these two. They might not become the Moss/Dickerson superstars that they're touted to become, but they'll be good NFL starters.

 

[Penguin]

Top prospects are rarely as good as the hype, but I'll be surprised if either Peterson or Johnson busts. They were monster producers in college, they pass the eyeball test, and they put on a show at the combine. Lynch and Jarrett are a notch below the aforementioned duo, but they're still solid prospects. I'm not as optimistic about the others.

Not saying you are wrong, but I heard Curtis Enis and David Terrell described in almost exactly the same terms as "can't miss" prospects... so you never know.

Terrell had hype, but he wasn't really a bulletproof prospect. He was a solid college player who played for a high profile program and got overdrafted. It happens. Peterson and Johnson are rare because they pass almost every metric:High draft picks? Check.Combine? Check.Highlights? Check.College production? Check.Character? Check. There's no such thing as a sure thing, but these two are very close. Johnson is the best looking WR to enter the draft in at least 2-3 years. Peterson is the second best RB of the past five years behind only Reggie Bush. I feel like this is a rare year with two truly top shelf prospects at the top of the draft. Every year I go out on a limb for 1-2 players and say they won't fail unless they get injured. I feel that way about these two. They might not become the Moss/Dickerson superstars that they're touted to become, but they'll be good NFL starters.

I agree 100% with EBF's assessment of Peterson & Calvin Johnson