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Andre Ellington - RB - Clemson. (1 Viewer)

He's going off tonight mark it down. Anyone's chances of buying semi-low will be gone. U think they're running that turd Mendenhall into a brick wall? Ellington in space tonight fellas. 100+ total and a touch. - Da Gildz

 
His ability and growing touches don't matter, but being a sixth round pick 4 months ago does. Hes not goimg to average 7 yards a carry. Broken record.

I'm not starting him till I see more touches either but you're still adding little to the discussion

 
FantasyTrader said:
Time Kibitzer said:
Coeur de Lion said:
FantasyTrader said:
Coeur de Lion said:
...and for every Morris the are dozens of guys who flash and then wash out.
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I find this hard to believe. I don't have any numbers to back it up, but generally speaking there's what...1-2 guys a year that are not 3rd-4th round draft picks or better and become long-term RB1/2. So by definition, in order for your statement to be true there would have to be dozens of guys a year that "flash" and disappear. And we all know that's not the case. Obviously more often than not, late round or undrafted RB's that have a modicum of success don't have long term success. But I don't think it's anywhere near as rare as you proclaim it to be. I suppose it depends on your definition of flash. Technically, Goodson flashed for about 5 minutes.
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If Goodson flashed for "5 minutes" then Ellington has flashed for 40 seconds. That's the entire point -- 43 change of pace touches doesn't say much compared to the massive amounts of data provided by looking at hundreds of players with similar physical profiles and pedigree.
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They're not change of pace touches anymore when you're getting on the field in the first quarter and are on the field for ~50% of offensive snaps in the entire game.

And I'm just about as big of a stats guy as they come, but you're making a big mistake if you totally ignore what is happening on the field, it's important to actually watch the players to see how they look. If you watch Ellington play, I think it's pretty obvious that he's an electric player who's going to have a long NFL career barring injury. The Jamaal Charles comparisons aren't ideal because Ellington doesn't have the sprinters speed that Charles has so Ellington's unlikely to get as many 40+ yard rushes that Charles gets, but I think Ellington has the quickness and ability to change to direction quickly like Charles does. I don't know if Ellington will ever get the amount of touches that Charles gets, but if he does I think it's possible he can have Charles-lite production.
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CdL has no use for what's happening on the field. He's not a scout. He has mountains of data points that tell him you're being absurd.
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Yeah, I never said that. The eyeball test has a place, but in a game based 100% around probability and statistics it doesn't outweigh numbers IMO.

 
ryno1980 said:
His ability and growing touches don't matter, but being a sixth round pick 4 months ago does. Hes not goimg to average 7 yards a carry. Broken record.

I'm not starting him till I see more touches either but you're still adding little to the discussion
Click to expand...
You missed out on a great week last week.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
FantasyTrader said:
Coeur de Lion said:
FantasyTrader said:
Coeur de Lion said:
...and for every Morris the are dozens of guys who flash and then wash out.
Click to expand...
I find this hard to believe. I don't have any numbers to back it up, but generally speaking there's what...1-2 guys a year that are not 3rd-4th round draft picks or better and become long-term RB1/2. So by definition, in order for your statement to be true there would have to be dozens of guys a year that "flash" and disappear. And we all know that's not the case. Obviously more often than not, late round or undrafted RB's that have a modicum of success don't have long term success. But I don't think it's anywhere near as rare as you proclaim it to be. I suppose it depends on your definition of flash. Technically, Goodson flashed for about 5 minutes.
Click to expand...
If Goodson flashed for "5 minutes" then Ellington has flashed for 40 seconds. That's the entire point -- 43 change of pace touches doesn't say much compared to the massive amounts of data provided by looking at hundreds of players with similar physical profiles and pedigree.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. So, at what point is it okay to begin talking about what a guy is capable of and try projecting future value?
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It's obviously OK to talk about it right now. But in terms of expecting more than a part time role moving forward I'll need to see it first. Ellington's FF points-per-touch are unsustainable right now -- he IS going to regress as the season goes on, much less over the course of his career. If the touches don't increase, he's going to disappoint. He profiles like a 3rd down guy physically and based on his draft slot, so that's what I'm counting on until I see otherwise. In the meantime, if someone falls in love and is willing to pay for the unlikely high end upside, I'll sell. And be happy with getting that return from a rookie 3rd, 90% of which are total junk.
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Then it's too late. Dynasty leagues are all about predicting the future, once the future of a player is obvious then there's no value to be had. It's only in these moments of uncertainty where you get dynasty steals. Once he gets more than a part time role then his value skyrockets and whoever has him won't trade him away, especially in dynasty leagues.

 
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Da Gildz said:
Wasn't this kid a 2nd/3rd rd projection out of college? And his 40 time dropped him to the 6th? The dude can flat out ball. I don't care if he becomes Charles or not but to think this kid can't ascend to a fantasy stud is ridiculous. The skills are there. Mendenhall is atrocious. Only a matter of time....
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He fell because of injury concerns. Also because of poor pass protection.

 
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Time Kibitzer said:
Coeur de Lion said:
FantasyTrader said:
Coeur de Lion said:
FantasyTrader said:
Coeur de Lion said:
...and for every Morris the are dozens of guys who flash and then wash out.
Click to expand...
I find this hard to believe. I don't have any numbers to back it up, but generally speaking there's what...1-2 guys a year that are not 3rd-4th round draft picks or better and become long-term RB1/2. So by definition, in order for your statement to be true there would have to be dozens of guys a year that "flash" and disappear. And we all know that's not the case. Obviously more often than not, late round or undrafted RB's that have a modicum of success don't have long term success. But I don't think it's anywhere near as rare as you proclaim it to be. I suppose it depends on your definition of flash. Technically, Goodson flashed for about 5 minutes.
Click to expand...
If Goodson flashed for "5 minutes" then Ellington has flashed for 40 seconds. That's the entire point -- 43 change of pace touches doesn't say much compared to the massive amounts of data provided by looking at hundreds of players with similar physical profiles and pedigree.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. So, at what point is it okay to begin talking about what a guy is capable of and try projecting future value?
Click to expand...
It's obviously OK to talk about it right now. But in terms of expecting more than a part time role moving forward I'll need to see it first. Ellington's FF points-per-touch are unsustainable right now -- he IS going to regress as the season goes on, much less over the course of his career. If the touches don't increase, he's going to disappoint. He profiles like a 3rd down guy physically and based on his draft slot, so that's what I'm counting on until I see otherwise. In the meantime, if someone falls in love and is willing to pay for the unlikely high end upside, I'll sell. And be happy with getting that return from a rookie 3rd, 90% of which are total junk.
Click to expand...
Then it's too late. Dynasty leagues are all about predicting the future, once the future of a player is obvious then there's no value to be had. It's only in these moments of uncertainty where you get dynasty steals. Once he gets more than a part time role then his value skyrockets and whoever has him won't trade him away, especially in dynasty leagues.
Click to expand...
Well, yeah. But then again I'm not the guy that overpaid for Mewelde Moore, either. Tons of small quick guys look dynamic on 43 touches. The number of them that develop into long term fantasy assets is much smaller.

 
For what it's worth,

I started this thread, am an Arizona Cardinals fan, and traded this guy for Donnie Avery a few weeks back. He's never going to be a 3 - down back. He's a great complimentary piece who has the capability to rattle off some big plays in 3WR sets.

 
Eminence said:
Insein said:
Too much nepotism for arians. He's going to stick with mendy till he gets hurt.
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I don't understand why you would want Ellington getting Mendenhall's carries. They're too completely different Running Backs.
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They are but Mendy is being run into the breach again and again without the change of pace that Ellington provides. 10 carries to 3 carries. No wonder they only have 20 yards rushing.

 
he is on pace for his lousy 8 touches... this sucks... I knew I shouldn't get all excited.. guys were saying 4 catches and 100 yards from scrimmage and a td.. PLease he would need 5 games for that Total bs.. Arians is an idiot.

 
That Seattle D is one of the best I have seen. Anyone thinking a rookie member of a RBBC would be betting 16 points tonight is just dumb.

 
T with T said:
looks like the ellington train is coming off the tracks................ :tfp:
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I thought it wasn't rocket science. :) FWIW, I started Ellington tonight and think the second half actually sets up pretty nice for him. Cards are gonna have to abandon Mendenhall into his guard's a$$ for a two yard loss on 1st down.

 
Guys. This is an undersized 6th Rounder! What the #### were you expecting? His value comes from his ability to catch passes and he's got pretty big hurdle in Rashard Mendenhall to overcome.

He might get some touches in the passing game, a few draws. But when Arizona is trying to establish the run, set-up playaction, etc. Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game? They're gonna somehow pound it with a 200lb Runningback?

C'mon fellas.

 
yea could be... Well I wasn't worried about sea chickens on the road... I think Car and 49ers d is just as good and stout so that's bs star trek slap dash.

 
Eminence said:
Guys. This is an undersized 6th Rounder! What the #### were you expecting? His value comes from his ability to catch passes and he's got pretty big hurdle in Rashard Mendenhall to overcome.

He might get some touches in the passing game, a few draws. But when Arizona is trying to establish the run, set-up playaction, etc. Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game? They're gonna somehow pound it with a 200lb Runningback?

C'mon fellas.
Click to expand...
200 lb rb is to small??? we already went over this crap before... He is doubling the production of Mendenhall...

 
FantasyTrader said:
T with T said:
looks like the ellington train is coming off the tracks................ :tfp:
Click to expand...
I thought it wasn't rocket science. :) FWIW, I started Ellington tonight and think the second half actually sets up pretty nice for him. Cards are gonna have to abandon Mendenhall into his guard's ### for a two yard loss on 1st down.
Click to expand...
Huh? The Cardinals are only down 7 points. I don't think they're gameplan changes much until their down at least 'two scores'.

 
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T with T said:
Eminence said:
Guys. This is an undersized 6th Rounder! What the #### were you expecting? His value comes from his ability to catch passes and he's got pretty big hurdle in Rashard Mendenhall to overcome.

He might get some touches in the passing game, a few draws. But when Arizona is trying to establish the run, set-up playaction, etc. Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game? They're gonna somehow pound it with a 200lb Runningback?

C'mon fellas.
Click to expand...
200 lb rb is to small??? we already went over this crap before... He is doubling the production of Mendenhall...
Click to expand...
Please quote where I said the phrase, "too small".

 
Eminence said:
Guys. This is an undersized 6th Rounder! What the #### were you expecting? His value comes from his ability to catch passes and he's got pretty big hurdle in Rashard Mendenhall to overcome.

He might get some touches in the passing game, a few draws. But when Arizona is trying to establish the run, set-up playaction, etc. Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game? They're gonna somehow pound it with a 200lb Runningback?

C'mon fellas.
Click to expand...
No place for logic in this thread -- chug some Kool Aid or GTFO.

 
Eminence said:
FantasyTrader said:
T with T said:
looks like the ellington train is coming off the tracks................ :tfp:
Click to expand...
I thought it wasn't rocket science. :) FWIW, I started Ellington tonight and think the second half actually sets up pretty nice for him. Cards are gonna have to abandon Mendenhall into his guard's ### for a two yard loss on 1st down.
Click to expand...
Huh? The Cardinals are only down 7 points. I don't think they're gameplan changes much until their down at least 'two scores'.
Click to expand...
I was speaking more to the fact of Mendenhall's complete and utter futility between the tackles on first down.

 
Eminence said:
Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game? They're gonna somehow pound it with a 200lb Runningback?
Click to expand...
I think the point is they shouldn't be "pounding it" at all. It's not working. They need to be using Ellington in the short passing game as an extension of the running game.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Eminence said:
Guys. This is an undersized 6th Rounder! What the #### were you expecting? His value comes from his ability to catch passes and he's got pretty big hurdle in Rashard Mendenhall to overcome.

He might get some touches in the passing game, a few draws. But when Arizona is trying to establish the run, set-up playaction, etc. Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game? They're gonna somehow pound it with a 200lb Runningback?

C'mon fellas.
Click to expand...
No place for logic in this thread -- chug some Kool Aid or GTFO.
Click to expand...
OH YEAH!!!!!!!!

 
Arians is incompetent why would they get Ellington is space with short passes... just have palmer drop back get sacked, run mendy for 1 yard and then punt... wash and repeat.

 
Kool-Aid Larry said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Eminence said:
Guys. This is an undersized 6th Rounder! What the #### were you expecting? His value comes from his ability to catch passes and he's got pretty big hurdle in Rashard Mendenhall to overcome.

He might get some touches in the passing game, a few draws. But when Arizona is trying to establish the run, set-up playaction, etc. Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game? They're gonna somehow pound it with a 200lb Runningback?

C'mon fellas.
Click to expand...
No place for logic in this thread -- chug some Kool Aid or GTFO.
Click to expand...
OH YEAH!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...
:lmao: Awesome

 
I wanted Ellington real bad but perhaps it's better that Zac Stacy fell to me this week. Ellington is only a PPR flex unless/until Mendenhall gets hurt.

 
Slapdash said:
Chicago Hooligan said:
I wanted Ellington real bad but perhaps it's better that Zac Stacy fell to me this week. Ellington is only a PPR flex unless/until Mendenhall gets hurt.
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I've been able to pick up both in my keep 5 league....pretty excited for the future.
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you think Stacy and Ellington are worthwhile keepers? I don't think they are even close right now unless they show us something more. I assume 12 team league so 60 keepers, don't think either is there right now

 
T with T said:
Arians is incompetent why would they get Ellington is space with short passes... just have palmer drop back get sacked, run mendy for 1 yard and then punt... wash and repeat.
Click to expand...
Lol, yeah darn Arians for drafting this cat in the 6th Round! Where every other coach passed on him at least 5 times previously.

 
hines said:
Slapdash said:
Chicago Hooligan said:
I wanted Ellington real bad but perhaps it's better that Zac Stacy fell to me this week. Ellington is only a PPR flex unless/until Mendenhall gets hurt.
Click to expand...
I've been able to pick up both in my keep 5 league....pretty excited for the future.
Click to expand...
you think Stacy and Ellington are worthwhile keepers? I don't think they are even close right now unless they show us something more. I assume 12 team league so 60 keepers, don't think either is there right now
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You may be right, but it is always roster dependent.

The team I have them on is 1-5 and pretty bad right now in a RB heavy league. I have had MJD, Roddy White, and Jennings for years and they on their last legs. Colston too. Not much established to speak to on the rest of the roster either outside of Reggie.

I think both Stacy and Ellington have shown good talent so far. Stacy already seems to have the Rams job and I think Ellington is talented enough to get the Arizona one by next year. Young starting RBs would be worth keeping going into next year.

 
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