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Andre Ellington - RB - Clemson. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Khy
Footballguy
Yeah, he's RB15 in my PPR Dynasty league, Rice is RB29. Even prior to this week I think he was like RB19? While averaging a measly 4.67 carries per game. If you can manage to be a top 20 RB with less than 5 carries per game during your rookie year? You are someone I'm scratching and clawing like hell to get in a dynasty league. Cause that tells me that there's a greater than 50% chance that you're going to start getting 10 or 15 carries a game. And on those 10-15 carries you may now be a RB10+ and if you even become a full lead back, well now you're Jamaal Charles.
The point here is, even with Ellington averaging 5 carries a game, he's been more valuable than Ray Rice this season as a rookie, on a team that doesn't feature the run and isn't a good defense. Not to even mention that Ellington shares the division with some of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. And is STILL out producing Rice. If I'm in a redraft and someone offers me Ray Rice for Ellington I'm not taking it more than likely. I'd rather keep the upside with Ellington than take on the downside burden of Rice.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
You seem like a smart reasonable dude. Too smart to really believe that the 2012 NFL Coach of the Year is actually a drooling idiot who doesn't know how to run his football team that is currently exceeding expectations at 4-4.
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I meant it in the literal sense of a starting RB in the NFL as per an official NFL depth chart in the upcoming seasons. If you've been forced to start him in your fantasy lineup this year, that is entirely trivial to this discussion.
If signs are pointing to him being more JC than Daryl Richardson then you are merely seeing what you want to see. He's on a cheap rookie contract playing for Arians who will get at least 2 more years to coach the Cards. Even if Ellington is the next Jamaal Charles (extremely unlikely) the head coach doesn't think so and has so far rather explicitly stated that he has no plans to make him a starting RB. If he's going to start Mendenhall over him this year, what do you think he'll do next year when they almost certainly sign someone at least as good as Mendenhall (if not Mendenhall himself again). So given what we know, I would say he's got less than a 5% chance of being a week 1 starter in 2014 or 2015.
In his defense, Arians really just lucked into that award. His team scored less points than their opponents and they managed to come out of it 11-5. I'm reluctant to believe that was all on Arians' shoulders. He did a decent job but caught a ton of nice breaks, primarily Andrew Luck being the comeback kid.
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WOAH...that was a lot. But a fun rant to read and I agreed with pretty much everything you said.
Miami should have kept featuring the run game until the pats showed the ability to stop it and THATS WHEN YOU DIAL UP SOME PASS PLAYS FOR TANNEHILL. That spells success.
A for Ellington and his size, I'm with you. You play the players that put you in the best position to win the game. Ellington is a big boy and he made his choice to pursue a career in the nfl. If he gets hurt because e is electric and the coaches don't want to take him off the field (and he first want to come off either) then that's football. It's a violent sport. Period.
The only situation that justifies limiting ellington a touches would be if they had another Rb that was equally effective and helped them team constantly move the chains while providing big plays here and there. If mendy wa that type of back, great. You've got yourself a little thunder and lightning which can be a REALLY effective way to batter your opponents.
But Arizona doesn't have that. Ellington on the field for the majority of the snaps is what gives then the best chance to win.
Their qb sucks and as a result their wrs suck. Their line sucks. Their defense isn't anything really special.
Play your studs.
ryno1980
Footballguy
This is absolutely ridiculous. The head coach Arians loves Ellington or he would not be on the field. Maybe Arians does think he has Charles-type potential and knows he should ease him into a larger workload. 5 percent chance of being a week 1 starter next year?
How about 50 percent chance he's part of a committee that gets him close to 50 percent of the RB touches.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Agree that Arians isn't a spectacular offensive mind like Mike Shanahan. But he is competent. He's not a moron, an idiot, or any of the other stuff being thrown around in here by Ellington owners. He's not Romeo Crennell who is surprised that Charles got only 6 touches after the game.
I certainly don't think he is a drooling idiot, but I think it is clear Ellington's touches should grow. Only getting 5 touches while averaging such a higher yard per touch is something that should be c[SIZE=10.5pt]riticized IMO[/SIZE]. Even with a small sample size. But I am complaining as a biased Ellington owner, not a Cards fan.
Right now, Ellingon has 30% of the RB touches for AZ this year (8 a game). Obviously that is skewed by week 8, but I fail to see why he shouldn't be getting 30% to 40% the load each week. I understand he isn't going to be carrying to control the clock or convert short yardage. But he seems too explosive not to make sure he says involved.
I'm also of the opinion most of the comments that annoy people from Arians are just coach speak. The Cards probably have every intention of getting him more touches. Seahawks game aside, that trend is clear.
Nope. If Mendenhall is his only real competition now and he's not getting close to 50% of the touches then why do you think that will change next year? Arians sees him as a CoP back and that's why everyone here is flipping out. Hell, even with Mendenhall injured, he barely got more touches than Stepfan Taylor!
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Arians is also on record saying if Ellington puts on 10 pounds he'll be Arian Foster. If Arians is so much smarter than us, then I'm sure as heck going to sit on a guy that is already putting up strong RB2 numbers but could be a top 3 RB next year if he puts on a little weight.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
My guess is that's about to change. Actually Arians doesn't view him as a COP back, recent quotes have Arians acknowledging they need to get Ellington more involved moving forward. I think many people in this thread are saying similar things, but it's getting twisted based on the wording of the now seemingly DAILY quote from Arains about what his thoughts are on Ellington's workload.
Truth be told, this is what happens when a coach F***S up talent evaluation. Arians now knows Ellington needs more touches and he's going to get him more touches. BUT...the trick is for him to carefully transition it so he's not acknowledging, "Hey everybody, the truth is I'm a mouth-breather and painted myself into a corner with Mendenhall as my lead back". The transition will happen, it'll just happen slower than Ellington owners would like.
zamboni
Footballguy
I'm guessing Ellington is going to be hitting the weight room extra hard in the offseason.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
...and promptly getting injured. Problem is, look at the guy. He's already a freaking tree trunk for his size.
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Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Averaging over 10 yards a carry on 15 carries is a lot more than benefiting from Mendenhall going down. Those 154 rushing yards are well over half of what Mendenhall has put up in 7 games. And I think it's a bit premature to say he hasn't stolen the starter gig. He's certainly proven he deserves it over Mendenhall anyway.
As for the bolded, how bout the post where you said: "when Arizona is trying to establish the run, set-up playaction, etc. Why would you expect Ellington to be in the game?". So you're saying a RB who gets his carries when his team is not trying to 'establish the run' is not a COP back?
Khy
Footballguy
I agree, I think it's about to change. Here's a few things to remember about the "Arians is a moron" argument that's being spewed around by most people.
There actually isn't a real quote from Arians saying that he feels Ellington can't be a 3 down back in the NFL at his size. At least not to the public, those original quotes came from Rotoworld and a beat writers twitter. In fact the only real quote we have from Arians about Ellington is him saying "Andre is a guy who we feel can handle the load." and "We're going to continue taking it careful with Ellington".
My Take: They fully envision Ellington as the 3 down start of the future for the Cardinals. And honestly? It's probably very hard for Arians to hold back his enthusiasm of how amazing this 6th round RB pick has turned out this early. However, what they don't want to do is run him into the ground during his rookie season in which it's going to be very difficult for them to make the playoffs. Arians isn't stupid, he can see what Ellington brings to this team. When Ellington sees more touches this team simply plays better. He likely won't be the 'starter' the rest of the season unless Mendenhall missing another week or two. If Mendenhall does indeed miss that much time, I doubt Arians would be able to reliably put him back in the starting position if Ellington proceeds to perform like this... this isn't Bryce Brown vs LeSean McCoy we're talking about here. This is more like Russell Wilson and Matt Flynn.
*yawn*You don't get it. It's not about his talent. He wouldn't have had half the statline he had had Mendenhall been in the game.
Look at the very first post in this thread and tell me I think Ellington is a COP back.
Edit: I did the legwork for you, read the post below this one.
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Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
The whole point of my original post was that you ostensibly changed your tune about Ellington after his 3 carries for 3 yards game, saying stuff like "what were you expecting from an undersized 6th rounder?", as if his lack of size and/or draft status is a proper indication of his expected outcomes.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
No no, Arians said he would be Arian Foster if he put on 10 pounds. Bruce Arians is an NFL coach, therefore he knows what he is talking about and Ellington would be much more durable 10 pounds heavier and be the next Arian Foster.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
seems he is smart enough to realized that the recipient of a rather meaningless award is unsurprisingly capable of making idiotic decisions.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
He's right Em, you should have stuck to your guns. Your tune had definitely changed last week. Can't go back now and quote yourself from April.
T with T
Footballguy
I traded Lamar Miller for Ellington in one of my ppr 12 team dynasty.... Hype for that Im glad he took the bait.
Khy
Footballguy
... Not really, I talk up just as many players as I put down on these forums. It seems to me the general circle jerk consensus on these forums is "Nobody is worth anything until they're worth something". Which is a pretty awful way to always suck at FFB. If you're not ahead of the game you're behind the game. You and several others on these boards seem to have this idea that making educated guesses and assuming rational coaching for a players future outlook is "overly optimistic" where I see it as simply making educated guesses for talent and situation.
I liked Ellington's talent prior to the draft then he slipped and went to the Cardinals and I hated the situation. I still tried to acquire him in my dynasty leagues because I like to believe talent wins out more often than opportunity.
Now we're seeing talent + opportunity and oh, look at that Ellington was the #1 fantasy RB for the Week. In his first start. As a Rookie. On a team with a terrible run blocking offensive line. On only 15 carries. Against one of the worst RB FFB match ups in the NFL.
You're probably right, I must be over reacting. Whenever we see talent like this shine with opportunity we should ignore it and assume that it was a fluke.
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Actually, the circle jerk mentality is found in just about each individual player thread and it is most rabid inside the rookie threads. Rather than freaking out about every rookie that has impressive "per touch" statistics on a limited basis, I tend to play the odds and buy low on proven talents that fall out of favor (see Lynch) while selling high on guys like Ellington. You may miss out on one Jamaal Charles but at least you sold high on twenty Daryl Richardsons. This is an odds game, but everyone likes to think they've got the next JC and you are no different.
The best way to always suck at FFB is to think you are going to consistently beat the odds. So each case should be evaluated individually. If the best you can get for Ellington is BJGE, then you might as well sit on your lottery ticket. If someone offers you Ray Rice, you snap that up. If you could find a frustrated Mathews owner, that would be a win, too. Find someone who has proven talent and at least a couple seasons left and trade away that flavor of the week. Trust probability over your own eyeball test because just about everyone sees what they want to see.
Also, Atlanta is not one of the worst RB matchups. Ellington appears to be a nice CoP back, but remember: LenDale White once had an 80 yard TD. Donald Brown looked good on limited touches in 2010. Jerome Harrison almost rushed for 300 yards in his first NFL start. Don't get too excited.
T with T
Footballguy
has D richardson ever had an 80 yard td even? U should be able to tell Ellington is far more talented then Drichardson, come on you must be joking?
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Khy
Footballguy
Marshawn Lynch is a terrible example of your point. A situation like Lynch's comes around once every 1-2 seasons if you're lucky. Lynch had proven 100% to be a starting caliber RB. And Buffalo just gave up on him then he was moved to Seattle. A monkey could have told you Lynch was a good pickup at that point. Point out a few more situations like that, I'd be interested in seeing your proof. Because in my experience for every Lynch Situation, there are probably about 40 Jamaal Charles situations. A young guy, who shows promise in limited touches and then goes on to become an every week fantasy starter for at least a season. Not always in his rookie year, but sometimes. Hell, I can name 40 from probably the past two seasons alone.
AJ Green, Julio Jones, Alfred Morris, RG3, Andrew Luck, Victor Cruz, Cam Newton, Antonio Brown, Andy Dalton, Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson, Stevan Ridley, CJ Spiller, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Percy Harvin, Eric Decker, DeMaryius Thomas, hell... Dez Bryant.
Every last one of these guys was nothing close to a 'proven' talent. And honestly? If you traded away most of these guys in dynasty while they were still 'guys' you'd be jumping off buildings right now. And that's just naming names in the past couple of years and far from all of those names. I'd like you to show me more Marshawn Lynch type situations like this.. you know proven talents who then go on to fall completely out of favor and then come back to form. They rarely if every happen.
Till this past game in Week 8, Atlanta was giving up an average of 99.7 ypg and had only allowed 2 rushing TDs on the season. Prior to Week 8 the Falcons hadn't let a single RB eclipse 70 rushing yards in a game. I'd be interested in finding a worse matchup than a team that coming into the week capped RB ceilings at 70 yards and 0.28 TDs per game.
Anything that does not supply Ellington owners with the confirmation bias they are looking for is going to be met with disdain and ridicule. You guys are clearly looking for circle jerk material. Logic and reason are just a wet blanket on this party. Keep hanging onto your $1 lottery ticket or trade it for $10 now. Probability says it'll be worth $0 in 2 years.
I'd honestly be interested in hearing the deals you guys are turning down for your scat back.
I'd honestly be interested in hearing the deals you guys are turning down for your scat back.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I'll take my points wherever I can get them, especially with so many busts and injuries at RB this season. I was happy to land Ellington in my keeper league and I can see him being a decent FF back next year too. I don't know many leagues that give extra points to a player if they are designated as a "starter" over a "change of pace" guy, so . There are guys with cop roles that put up consistent points, especially on teams with a mediocre starter like Mendenhall. See Sproles, Woodhead, Vereen.
I was high on Kendall Hunter before his injury, and I see Ellington as a similar guy with a weaker player than Gore ahead of him on the chart. I mentioned Jahvid Best earlier as another comparison. He was another explosive talent that could put up points with fewer touches.
At least they are on a bye this week and Arians doesn't have to worry about him getting hit. Don't walk across the street by yourself Andre!
I was high on Kendall Hunter before his injury, and I see Ellington as a similar guy with a weaker player than Gore ahead of him on the chart. I mentioned Jahvid Best earlier as another comparison. He was another explosive talent that could put up points with fewer touches.
At least they are on a bye this week and Arians doesn't have to worry about him getting hit. Don't walk across the street by yourself Andre!
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
That's the definition of a lottery ticket. It's cheap, and it will probably miss.
It's easy to take the side of a player NOT panning out, because most of them don't. The odds are definitely in your favor.
I'm holding on to Ellington because I don't see too many other lottery tickets laying on the ground at the moment.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
That's a very reasonable viewpoint that I doubt too many people would argue with. It's not common among the herd of Ellington owners, however.
Area51Inhabitant
Footballguy
The lottery ticket is not a good analogy. Given what most of us spent on him which was likely a waiver pickup, he's already cashed in that dollar and twenty fold on top of that. The question going forward beyond 2013 is will his role continue to grow into that of a feature back or will he spend his career as a cop play with occasional upside. Either way, there is nothing wrong with hanging onto him to find out since it cost so little to get him in the first place. Frankly, I prefer taking occasional shots at young less proven guys who are less defined that getting that sure thing who's slowly depreciating every season. To answer an earlier question, the best way to win at ff is to get max value out of your picks. Having a few educated guesses of young undefined players and getting a reasonable percentage of which turn into ff viable players is an excellent way to do just that.
It seems easy, yet the people here think you must be either insane or jealous to think he doesn't have a good chance at being a starter next year.
And you don't hang onto a lottery ticket because you don't see any other lottery tickets. You look for a buy low opp. Try to get a talented player that has fallen out of favor (like Mathews before week 7). Even Knowshon redeemed himself as a 1st round pick this year. Might be time to buy Jonathan Stewart. I heard Ray Rice was offered to an Ellington owner. Ray Rice isn't a lottery ticket. He's better than a lottery ticket. He's proven and his contract says he'll be the starter for the Ravens in 2014.
There is the flawed logic. Ignore sunk cost, be it high or low, and focus on opportunity cost. If you have Ray Rice offered to you then you must evaluate Ellington vs. Rice, not Ellington vs. $4 waiver claim.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
I can see both sides of the keep vs. trade argument. I am very concerned that Arians will limit his value over a few seasons and the leagues in which I own him are 3 year max keepers. I'll trade him (or anyone, really) if the price is right. In a 0.5 ppr that price was Julius Thomas 2 days ago because I have what appears to be very good RB depth and lost Finley. Andre & Thomas were both round 14 selections so they have the same keeper value @ +2 rounds per year to keep.
Ultimately, they're all assets and, as the saying goes, everybody has a price.
Ultimately, they're all assets and, as the saying goes, everybody has a price.
Banger
Footballguy
are we talking about dynasty or redraft here? In redraft Ellington has been better and his situation looks at least as good going forward. Rice has had the starting role and I don't see any potential upside to his situation...yes he may score a goal line TD or so but he's running at Mendy type ypcs so I'd have little to no interest in giving up Ellington for him. Dynasty is a different question.
Khy
Footballguy
I for one am not one of those people who think you must be 'insane' or 'jealous' to think he doesn't have a good chance at being a starter next year. I've in fact never said that... I do think you're close minded though. This kid was a 3rd round talent, who fell in the draft due to a bad combine where he was injured and posted awful numbers. Then he slipped to the 6th round and fell right into Arizona's hands. Most talent evaluators had him listed at one of their Top 3 RBs usually behind Gio and Lacy.
Lacy is also a good point as well, a lot of people felt that Lacy was the #1 RB in the draft. Almost everyone's mock drafts had him going to GB in the 1st round. Instead he fell to the bottom of the 2nd round. And Giovani Bernard, Le'Veon Bell and Montee Ball were all taken above him. Right now, Lacy is having a better season then all of them. He's about 10 points behind Gio in PPR and that's with him missing a week and having his bye. Neither of which Gio is doing.
Here's another issue though, you keep talking about trying to buy low on a talented player. Coming into this season... in what possible world would you have said Knowshon was 100% more talented than Ellington and a good buy low target? Nobody in their right mind saw this coming from Knowshon. He was by all intents a large first round bust who was on the verge of being cut the past two seasons. Now all of a sudden he's the #2 fantasy FB? If you have told anyone that Knowshon would even be a serviceable RB2 in the preseason they'd have laughed so hard at you they probably would have died.
You're correct, Ray Rice isn't a lottery ticket. But he also isn't better than a lottery ticket. Trading for Ray Rice right now would be like buying Apple Stock. Apple Stock is eventually going to start to decrease, you wouldn't go buy it now. Now isn't the time to buy. You missed out on the time to buy Apple Stock 5-6 years ago. Right around the same time when you missed out on trading for Ray Rice.
Ok, using lottery tickets and the stock market in the same analogy isn't working. Ray Rice is actually a lot like AAPL, I agree. You're not going to hit $700 on a $90 stock, but you could take Rice for Ellington and get some value from him if you believe AAPL is going to hit $600. I don't really like AAPL but I wouldn't be surprised if it hit $600 in the next 12 months. Just like I don't really want Ray Rice that much, but I could easily see him putting up solid RB2 numbers next year.
Ellington is a penny stock. His chances of being profitable in the next 12 months are not good. In fact, you just might ride that one down to zero. Maybe you bought it at $0.02 and it's now at $0.10 so your gains have been great. I suggest taking those gains, turning them into Ray Rice and moving along happily.
The conjecture about Ellington being a 3rd round talent or being in the top 3 don't do much for me. The case of Lacy slipping also doesn't make Ellington a more likely player to be a starter next year. His coach will almost certainly pursue a 3 down back in the offseason. I doubt he even gets the courtesy of starting a few games next year like Daryl Richardson did.
Ellington is a penny stock. His chances of being profitable in the next 12 months are not good. In fact, you just might ride that one down to zero. Maybe you bought it at $0.02 and it's now at $0.10 so your gains have been great. I suggest taking those gains, turning them into Ray Rice and moving along happily.
The conjecture about Ellington being a 3rd round talent or being in the top 3 don't do much for me. The case of Lacy slipping also doesn't make Ellington a more likely player to be a starter next year. His coach will almost certainly pursue a 3 down back in the offseason. I doubt he even gets the courtesy of starting a few games next year like Daryl Richardson did.
