This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
It's revisionist history at its finest.
Agreed. And this thread will go another 20 pages of the same people still going nuts and still not understanding why Taylor and Dwyer are getting more carries and TDs and calling for Arians to get fired despite him coaching AZ to the verge of the playoffs.
You're almost right. In the games he had double digit carries, he only averaged 6.1 ypc.
Have to agree here. Richardson's 2012 vs Ellington's 2013 aren't even in the same page. I think a better comparison would be Jamaal Charles 2009 season. Charles had 190 att for 1,120yds at 5.9ypc and 7 TDs. Ellington's 2012 season had 118 att for 652yds at 5.5ypc and 5 TDs.
So your opinion versus the actual ADP is what wins out? So if Eliington's ADP ends up around 6th or 7th round what happens?
Just wait until August. Lamar effing Miller was going as a high end RB2 just last year, and Ellington is three times the player that Miller is.
I think he finished 25th last year, was injured for a game and split carries with Mendy.
And guys like Ellington are exactly the kind of guys that see a big RISE in their ADP the closer we get to the start of the year. By August I expect that to settle closer to the 32 range than the 48 range, but either way it will be significantly higher than 79.
No, I've been calling Charles a HOF talent for years and have owned him in multiple dynasties since day one. I have been pleasantly surprised by his durability given his frame / workload though. There's a big difference between HOPING and EXPECTING, though, and it has nothing to do with being a "Debbie Downer." I still own Ellington in a few places (after selling high in most leagues). I'll be thrilled if he develops into more than a 150 - 200 touch FF RB3. I'm not expecting it though, and it's certainly foolish to pay prices for him that reflect an expected huge bump in workload.
34th in PPG in PPR, probably lower in standard I'd guess. And he'll be splitting with Dwyer / Taylor this year in all likelihood.
Gonna disagree. You let Taylor rip off some runs and look better in the pre-season than all you will see is the quote from the HC just last season that said Ellington was a change of pace back. His ADP will be all over the place and who knows where it will settle today IMO
I like the swing for the fences approach, I really do but IMHO it comes off as you're trying to sell yourself more than anything else.
How many dynamic fantasy rb's are there? geezus. Did you know Deangelo Williams was a top-20 rb last year with 1,100 total yds and 4 tds? I'm not saying draft the guy in the top 10 picks. But to take him in the 3rd round is foolish? When there are what maybe 8 elite options at the rb spot this year. You need to examine the depth of the fantasy rb position, its not that deep. I'll gladly take him in the 3rd where he can realistically reach 1st round production, and then do a self high-five.
I think most people think he is un-special (might be decent to good, just not special), but is the only game in town in AZ, with an improved O-line, and a coach that is talking about 25-30 touches for him. Not a lot of coaches are saying that about their backs.
First round FF production out of Andre Ellington is nowhere near realistic IMO, but YMMV.
I'm certainly not going to project Ellington for more than 200 total touches, personally. Mendenhall being gone means zero IMO; it's not like he was just so good they couldn't keep him off of the field. He flat out sucked, but they needed a non-Ellington RB to slam the ball up between the tackles 15 times / game. Ellington isn't suited for that, and that will be either Dwyer or Taylor this year. Ellington is a space player.
Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus and Rotoworld tweeted this out in mid-February:
I wish people would stop putting words in my mouth. I said his comp is Charles. Not he is the next Charles. Those are two completely different things. Comparing two players based on size and skill set vs saying "This guy is the next [insert GOAT here]" are two completely separate things.
Clay makes a good projection - allows upside, but factors risk.
What? He had 157 touches last season and he wasn't the starter. He didn't even exceed 10 touches until Week 5. After that he had one week under 10 touches. After week 5 he averaged 12.45 touches per game. And if you remove that random game in week 7 where he only saw the ball 5 times he averaged 13.2 a game. That's probably his floor this season. Which would put him at 211 touches. Couple that with his lead back status we're probably at a realistic 250 for low-mid projections.
I disagree with this. I can accept that maybe he can't handle the load of a full-time back and will get injured. We don't know the answer to that question yet. But I specifically disagree that he's not suited to run the ball up the middle.
Where did we say we were drafting him as our RB1 again? Oh yea thats u putting words in peoples mouths again.
it was obvious to those that watched him closely last year that he should've taken over last year and the coaching is saying this year what we were last year...that the offense s/b built around him and that he should be given more touches. You can discount it and you may be right but if they had reservations about him I would think they would've hedged their bet a bit more with some decent talent behind him. To me, the other RBs on the roster are trash so they will sink or swim with Ellington.
You have him projected as a top 10 RB, guy. If you don't get him on every single team as your RB1 after grabbing some stud WRs you're doing it wrong.
I'm not sure if you're referring to me, but I never said a single one of these things or anything like it.
What was the Chiefs' stance on Jamaal Charles when they were feeding a washed up Thomas Jones the ball, or the Eagles' stance on LeSean McCoy when they were feeding a washed up Brian Westbrook the ball, or the Titans stance on Chris Johnson when they were feeding an overweight LenDale White the ball?
Again, he was RB25 in ppr last season on 157 touches. Which means he was just shy of an RB2. If he was seeing the same touches his first 5 games as his final 10 he'd have easily been top 20 and been an every week RB2 on less touches than any other RB2. Now he's slated for at least another 5 touches a game and you're essentially telling us he won't even be an RB2. Add his averages from 2013 to 5 mute carries a game and he would've finished near RB1 value. Are you also over in the Keenan Allen and Gio Bernard threads spouting this same nonsense?
It was obvious last year that Ellington was, by far, the most dynamic player on the entire Cardinal's offense. I agree that Dwyer and Taylor are trash. But Mendenhall was if anything even stinkier trash last year. Looking great on < 8 carries / game =/= is well suited for a huge increase in touches. Now obviously, he could have a huge breakout year, but IMO it's far more likely that he's more along the lines of a 1000 - 1200 total yard / 5 - 6 TD guy somewhere on the Gio -- Sproles -- Vereen -- Woodhead spectrum. And it's still only May, the hype is already building, and people (including some fairly reputable professional FF writers) are calling for top 10 RB numbers. He's going to be HUGELY over rated and over drafted in August, I almost guarantee it.
They're stance was he's a 30 snap player, now it's that he's a 30 touch player. They wanted to pack on some muscle before they changed their view of him. Though the weight gain is cause for concern.
If you think Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles are valid comps for Andre Ellington we're not going to have much to talk about. Ellington was a 6th round pick. He's tiny, slow, and not exceptional as an athlete, particularly for a player his size. He did look good on just over 150 touches last year in a change of pace role. We'll see what he does this year I suppose, but either way, in my experience it's hugely foolish to overreact to a 157 touch sample size.
No player in NFL history has been a 30 touch player. I think it's probably safe to dismiss that quote as meaningless coachspeak.
