Andre Ellington - RB - Clemson. (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

Both of you guys, and many others, were in here making the exact same predictions of Ellington taking over every week last year. How'd that work out for you? And now you're taking worthless May coachspeak as gospel and weighing it over the actual actions of the same coaches from last season, when they very clearly felt Ellington was best used in a COP role. We can revisit this at mid season. Good luck with Ellington as your RB1 this year.

Where did we say we were drafting him as our RB1 again? Oh yea thats u putting words in peoples mouths again.

Again, im taking the organizations stance/perception on Ellington over you. I'm sorry. If they had serious doubts he could be the focal point of their running attack, they wouldnt insure him with 2 stiffs.

You have him projected as a top 10 RB, guy. If you don't get him on every single team as your RB1 after grabbing some stud WRs you're doing it wrong.And what was the organization's stance on Ellington last year, when they were feeding used up Mendenhall the ball?

What was the Chiefs' stance on Jamaal Charles when they were feeding a washed up Thomas Jones the ball, or the Eagles' stance on LeSean McCoy when they were feeding a washed up Brian Westbrook the ball, or the Titans stance on Chris Johnson when they were feeding an overweight LenDale White the ball?

I'm not even that high on Ellington, but some of the stuff you're posting in here is bordering on absurd.

If you think Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles are valid comps for Andre Ellington we're not going to have much to talk about. Ellington was a 6th round pick. He's tiny, slow, and not exceptional as an athlete, particularly for a player his size. He did look good on just over 150 touches last year in a change of pace role. We'll see what he does this year I suppose, but either way, in my experience it's hugely foolish to overreact to a 157 touch sample size.

Whether he's comparable to them is irrelevant (though he looked MUCH quicker/faster than his combine times on the field). You implied that the team sticking with an ineffective veteran as the main back during Ellington's rookie year was in some way damning to Ellington's future. The fact of the matter is that it is not at all uncommon, even among the most elite of fantasy running backs, for them to play 2nd fiddle to a far less effective veteran during their rookie year. That holds doubly true for guys that enter the league with the perception that they're "undersized".

 

[Steed]

Agreed but it is a sign that they believe he is their workhorse. They've been on honest with his usage in the past. And very few people would call him slow.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Both of you guys, and many others, were in here making the exact same predictions of Ellington taking over every week last year. How'd that work out for you? And now you're taking worthless May coachspeak as gospel and weighing it over the actual actions of the same coaches from last season, when they very clearly felt Ellington was best used in a COP role. We can revisit this at mid season. Good luck with Ellington as your RB1 this year.

Where did we say we were drafting him as our RB1 again? Oh yea thats u putting words in peoples mouths again.

Again, im taking the organizations stance/perception on Ellington over you. I'm sorry. If they had serious doubts he could be the focal point of their running attack, they wouldnt insure him with 2 stiffs.

You have him projected as a top 10 RB, guy. If you don't get him on every single team as your RB1 after grabbing some stud WRs you're doing it wrong.And what was the organization's stance on Ellington last year, when they were feeding used up Mendenhall the ball?

What was the Chiefs' stance on Jamaal Charles when they were feeding a washed up Thomas Jones the ball, or the Eagles' stance on LeSean McCoy when they were feeding a washed up Brian Westbrook the ball, or the Titans stance on Chris Johnson when they were feeding an overweight LenDale White the ball?

I'm not even that high on Ellington, but some of the stuff you're posting in here is bordering on absurd.

If you think Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles are valid comps for Andre Ellington we're not going to have much to talk about. Ellington was a 6th round pick. He's tiny, slow, and not exceptional as an athlete, particularly for a player his size. He did look good on just over 150 touches last year in a change of pace role. We'll see what he does this year I suppose, but either way, in my experience it's hugely foolish to overreact to a 157 touch sample size.

Whether he's comparable to them is irrelevant (though he looked MUCH quicker/faster than his combine times on the field). You implied that the team sticking with an ineffective veteran as the main back during Ellington's rookie year was in some way damning to Ellington's future. The fact of the matter is that it is not at all uncommon, even among the most elite of fantasy running backs, for them to play 2nd fiddle to a far less effective veteran during their rookie year. That holds doubly true for guys that enter the league with the perception that they're "undersized".

I was refuting the specific statement that the Cardinals plan to feature him fully due to the fact that Dwyer was all they added. I have zero idea what the Cards' plans are, and neither does anyone else, but the whole "hey, there's nobody else" argument is a very poor one in my experience, particularly in this case because there was nobody else on the same team just last year.

I think that Ellington is likely a longterm COP player based on a bunch of different data points that have been discussed to death in this thread. He could be more, sure, but that's different than paying for him as if he IS more, which continues to be the issue with him. I own the guy in a few dynasty leagues, and would happily draft him as a RB3 in PPR redrafts this year -- but projecting median production of 1500+ yards, 50 catches, and 10+ TDs seems like a HUGE reach to me.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Agreed but it is a sign that they believe he is their workhorse. They've been on honest with his usage in the past. And very few people would call him slow.

He's quick. But 4.61 is sloooooow for any RB, much less a 199 pounder.

 

[LittlePhatty]

No player in NFL history has been a 30 touch player. I think it's probably safe to dismiss that quote as meaningless coachspeak.

He probably meant to say "snaps" instead of "touches".

 

[Khy]

Both of you guys, and many others, were in here making the exact same predictions of Ellington taking over every week last year. How'd that work out for you? And now you're taking worthless May coachspeak as gospel and weighing it over the actual actions of the same coaches from last season, when they very clearly felt Ellington was best used in a COP role. We can revisit this at mid season. Good luck with Ellington as your RB1 this year.

Where did we say we were drafting him as our RB1 again? Oh yea thats u putting words in peoples mouths again.

Again, im taking the organizations stance/perception on Ellington over you. I'm sorry. If they had serious doubts he could be the focal point of their running attack, they wouldnt insure him with 2 stiffs.

You have him projected as a top 10 RB, guy. If you don't get him on every single team as your RB1 after grabbing some stud WRs you're doing it wrong.And what was the organization's stance on Ellington last year, when they were feeding used up Mendenhall the ball?

What was the Chiefs' stance on Jamaal Charles when they were feeding a washed up Thomas Jones the ball, or the Eagles' stance on LeSean McCoy when they were feeding a washed up Brian Westbrook the ball, or the Titans stance on Chris Johnson when they were feeding an overweight LenDale White the ball?

I'm not even that high on Ellington, but some of the stuff you're posting in here is bordering on absurd.

If you think Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles are valid comps for Andre Ellington we're not going to have much to talk about. Ellington was a 6th round pick. He's tiny, slow, and not exceptional as an athlete, particularly for a player his size. He did look good on just over 150 touches last year in a change of pace role. We'll see what he does this year I suppose, but either way, in my experience it's hugely foolish to overreact to a 157 touch sample size.

You're hilarious.

Tiny: He's 5' 9" 199lbs. Charles is 6' 0 199lbs. Okay, so he's bigger than Charles. Glad that'd out of the way.

Slow: He ran a 4.61 but pulled up with a hammy about 25 yards into his first 40. So you would be safe to assume at worst he's a 4.5 guy and probably closer to the 4.45 spectrum. Charles ran a 4.38 at the combine.

Athlete: Have you actually watched any of his game tape? College or pro. I have literally no clue where you're making this up from. He didn't run cones cause his hammy but him and Charles conveniently had the same broad jump at 122"

As for being foolish to judge a 6th round pick on his 157 touches his rookie year? I'm sure you said the same thing about a 4th round 2nd year player who looked amazing in limited time. He just so happened to be named Jamal Charles.

So sure, you can ignore the tape and numbers in front of you. And say it's to small a sample. But good luck. You'd miss out on most sit and wait type guys. Like Charles, McCoy, and maybe Ellington.

 

[Khy]

Agreed but it is a sign that they believe he is their workhorse. They've been on honest with his usage in the past. And very few people would call him slow.

He's quick. But 4.61 is sloooooow for any RB, much less a 199 pounder.

I posted it below, but I'll do it again. Cause people love to spew misinformation and half-facts. He ran a 4.61 but pulled up with a Hamstring about 25 yards into his first 40. At his pro day a few weeks later he ran a 4.5 and his hammy was still a little sore. In reality he's about a 4.45 guy. And if you watched him at all on the field at Clemson or Arizona you'd see that.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think that Ellington is likely a longterm COP player based on a bunch of different data points that have been discussed to death in this thread. He could be more, sure, but that's different than paying for him as if he IS more, which continues to be the issue with him. I own the guy in a few dynasty leagues, and would happily draft him as a RB3 in PPR redrafts this year -- but projecting median production of 1500+ yards, 50 catches, and 10+ TDs seems like a HUGE reach to me.

That's fair, and it takes us back to the old FF adage where if you wait to see how it works out then you've lost any chance to gain value.

Right now Ellington is priced somewhere between "clear COP back" and "clear lead back" because of the uncertainty. He could end up in the former area in which case his current price would be over-paying for him. He could also end up in the latter area in which case his current price is under-paying.

The trick is figuring out which area he fits into. You clearly feel that its the former which is fine, but you seem to be taking it as if that's locked into place. I agree with some of your reasons why he could end up in the former category but heavily disagree with some others. I think the main difference is that you feel that he's only used and/or been successful in space while I have been extremely impressed by his ability between the tackles. I also don't think his size is nearly the roadblock it once was in the NFL, as guys his size have taken the feature role and run with it as often as they've fallen flat on their face with it in recent years.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Both of you guys, and many others, were in here making the exact same predictions of Ellington taking over every week last year. How'd that work out for you? And now you're taking worthless May coachspeak as gospel and weighing it over the actual actions of the same coaches from last season, when they very clearly felt Ellington was best used in a COP role. We can revisit this at mid season. Good luck with Ellington as your RB1 this year.

Where did we say we were drafting him as our RB1 again? Oh yea thats u putting words in peoples mouths again.

Again, im taking the organizations stance/perception on Ellington over you. I'm sorry. If they had serious doubts he could be the focal point of their running attack, they wouldnt insure him with 2 stiffs.

You have him projected as a top 10 RB, guy. If you don't get him on every single team as your RB1 after grabbing some stud WRs you're doing it wrong.And what was the organization's stance on Ellington last year, when they were feeding used up Mendenhall the ball?

What was the Chiefs' stance on Jamaal Charles when they were feeding a washed up Thomas Jones the ball, or the Eagles' stance on LeSean McCoy when they were feeding a washed up Brian Westbrook the ball, or the Titans stance on Chris Johnson when they were feeding an overweight LenDale White the ball?

I'm not even that high on Ellington, but some of the stuff you're posting in here is bordering on absurd.

If you think Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles are valid comps for Andre Ellington we're not going to have much to talk about. Ellington was a 6th round pick. He's tiny, slow, and not exceptional as an athlete, particularly for a player his size. He did look good on just over 150 touches last year in a change of pace role. We'll see what he does this year I suppose, but either way, in my experience it's hugely foolish to overreact to a 157 touch sample size.

You're hilarious. Tiny: He's 5' 9" 199lbs. Charles is 6' 0 199lbs. Okay, so he's bigger than Charles. Glad that'd out of the way.

Slow: He ran a 4.61 but pulled up with a hammy about 25 yards into his first 40. So you would be safe to assume at worst he's a 4.5 guy and probably closer to the 4.45 spectrum. Charles ran a 4.38 at the combine.

Athlete: Have you actually watched any of his game tape? College or pro. I have literally no clue where you're making this up from. He didn't run cones cause his hammy but him and Charles conveniently had the same broad jump at 122"

As for being foolish to judge a 6th round pick on his 157 touches his rookie year? I'm sure you said the same thing about a 4th round 2nd year player who looked amazing in limited time. He just so happened to be named Jamal Charles.

So sure, you can ignore the tape and numbers in front of you. And say it's to small a sample. But good luck. You'd miss out on most sit and wait type guys. Like Charles, McCoy, and maybe Ellington.

Glad you find me amusing. I feel the same way about your never ending stream of pure hyperbole and various band wagon jumping. To each his own.

1.) Jamaal Charles is tiny. He's a massive outlier. Betting on a continuous string over undersized RBs by using "well, Charles isn't too small" as justification is a huge bet against the odds.

2.) You're still wrong on his 40 time. He ran a hand timed 4.51 at his Pro day, and those times are notoriously fast. He's slow, sorry.

3.) He's not an elite athlete, sorry. Charles and Chris Johnson both are. McCoy isn't, or didn't test that way, anyway, but then again he still was drafted in the 2nd round despite royally crapping the bed at the combine.

4.) Charles was actually a high 3rd round pick. Stuff like this (and Ellington's 40 time) is easily found here and any discussion is typically more productive when neither party just makes stuff up.

5.) I drafted both Charles and McCoy as rookies, when the modest investment of a non-elite rookie pick made sense. Spending mid / late 1st round rookie picks on 2nd / 3rd round developmental RBs is a fine bet. And a very different one from blowing a 3rd round startup pick or a 3rd round redraft pick on a 6th round RB based on "OMG watch the guy play" and 157 touches and nothing else. Ellington was a great 3rd round rookie pick last year -- but he's a sucker bet 3rd round startup / redraft pick this year.

 

[Steed]

For us upside down drafters, assuming they have similar Adps. Who do we like more?

Ellington, Sankey, Stacy?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think that Ellington is likely a longterm COP player based on a bunch of different data points that have been discussed to death in this thread. He could be more, sure, but that's different than paying for him as if he IS more, which continues to be the issue with him. I own the guy in a few dynasty leagues, and would happily draft him as a RB3 in PPR redrafts this year -- but projecting median production of 1500+ yards, 50 catches, and 10+ TDs seems like a HUGE reach to me.

That's fair, and it takes us back to the old FF adage where if you wait to see how it works out then you've lost any chance to gain value.

Right now Ellington is priced somewhere between "clear COP back" and "clear lead back" because of the uncertainty. He could end up in the former area in which case his current price would be over-paying for him. He could also end up in the latter area in which case his current price is under-paying.

The trick is figuring out which area he fits into. You clearly feel that its the former which is fine, but you seem to be taking it as if that's locked into place. I agree with some of your reasons why he could end up in the former category but heavily disagree with some others. I think the main difference is that you feel that he's only used and/or been successful in space while I have been extremely impressed by his ability between the tackles. I also don't think his size is nearly the roadblock it once was in the NFL, as guys his size have taken the feature role and run with it as often as they've fallen flat on their face with it in recent years.

You're underestimating his price quite a bit. DLF has him at dynasty RB14 currently, MFL has him at RB17 for redraft. He was RB34 last year in PPG -- a HUGE role increase is already being priced in.

 

[Khy]

Both of you guys, and many others, were in here making the exact same predictions of Ellington taking over every week last year. How'd that work out for you? And now you're taking worthless May coachspeak as gospel and weighing it over the actual actions of the same coaches from last season, when they very clearly felt Ellington was best used in a COP role. We can revisit this at mid season. Good luck with Ellington as your RB1 this year.

Where did we say we were drafting him as our RB1 again? Oh yea thats u putting words in peoples mouths again.

Again, im taking the organizations stance/perception on Ellington over you. I'm sorry. If they had serious doubts he could be the focal point of their running attack, they wouldnt insure him with 2 stiffs.

You have him projected as a top 10 RB, guy. If you don't get him on every single team as your RB1 after grabbing some stud WRs you're doing it wrong.And what was the organization's stance on Ellington last year, when they were feeding used up Mendenhall the ball?

What was the Chiefs' stance on Jamaal Charles when they were feeding a washed up Thomas Jones the ball, or the Eagles' stance on LeSean McCoy when they were feeding a washed up Brian Westbrook the ball, or the Titans stance on Chris Johnson when they were feeding an overweight LenDale White the ball?

I'm not even that high on Ellington, but some of the stuff you're posting in here is bordering on absurd.

If you think Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles are valid comps for Andre Ellington we're not going to have much to talk about. Ellington was a 6th round pick. He's tiny, slow, and not exceptional as an athlete, particularly for a player his size. He did look good on just over 150 touches last year in a change of pace role. We'll see what he does this year I suppose, but either way, in my experience it's hugely foolish to overreact to a 157 touch sample size.

You're hilarious. Tiny: He's 5' 9" 199lbs. Charles is 6' 0 199lbs. Okay, so he's bigger than Charles. Glad that'd out of the way.

Slow: He ran a 4.61 but pulled up with a hammy about 25 yards into his first 40. So you would be safe to assume at worst he's a 4.5 guy and probably closer to the 4.45 spectrum. Charles ran a 4.38 at the combine.

Athlete: Have you actually watched any of his game tape? College or pro. I have literally no clue where you're making this up from. He didn't run cones cause his hammy but him and Charles conveniently had the same broad jump at 122"

As for being foolish to judge a 6th round pick on his 157 touches his rookie year? I'm sure you said the same thing about a 4th round 2nd year player who looked amazing in limited time. He just so happened to be named Jamal Charles.

So sure, you can ignore the tape and numbers in front of you. And say it's to small a sample. But good luck. You'd miss out on most sit and wait type guys. Like Charles, McCoy, and maybe Ellington.

Glad you find me amusing. I feel the same way about your never ending stream of pure hyperbole and various band wagon jumping. To each his own.1.) Jamaal Charles is tiny. He's a massive outlier. Betting on a continuous string over undersized RBs by using "well, Charles isn't too small" as justification is a huge bet against the odds.

2.) You're still wrong on his 40 time. He ran a hand timed 4.51 at his Pro day, and those times are notoriously fast. He's slow, sorry.

3.) He's not an elite athlete, sorry. Charles and Chris Johnson both are. McCoy isn't, or didn't test that way, anyway, but then again he still was drafted in the 2nd round despite royally crapping the bed at the combine.

4.) Charles was actually a high 3rd round pick. Stuff like this (and Ellington's 40 time) is easily found here and any discussion is typically more productive when neither party just makes stuff up.

5.) I drafted both Charles and McCoy as rookies, when the modest investment of a non-elite rookie pick made sense. Spending mid / late 1st round rookie picks on 2nd / 3rd round developmental RBs is a fine bet. And a very different one from blowing a 3rd round startup pick or a 3rd round redraft pick on a 6th round RB based on "OMG watch the guy play" and 157 touches and nothing else. Ellington was a great 3rd round rookie pick last year -- but he's a sucker bet 3rd round startup / redraft pick this year.

He's not an outlier. I'm not sure how you get this...

Tiki Barber: 5'9 205lbs

Jamaal Charles: 6'0 200lbs

Ellington: 5' 9" 200lbs

Barry Sanders: 5'9" 208lbs

Ray Rice: 5' 9" 200lb (he packed on more weight later, but this was his rookie size)

I can keep going if you'd like, I'm sure there's a few more HoF level RBs I can quote at the same size.

As for the speed, if you're really going to sit here and tell me he's the same speed with a pulled hammy as he is in game time you're significantly more dense than I'm giving you credit for...

As for the draft, that's my bad. I knew it was 3rd or 4th but I posted from my phone and didn't take the time to look. Either way, doesn't "really" change my point much.

 

[Khy]

For us upside down drafters, assuming they have similar Adps. Who do we like more?

Ellington, Sankey, Stacy?

For me it's Ellington easy. Although, by August he's not likely to be at the same ADP as these guys. I'm guessing he'll be going in the 2/3 turn area, as others have said... similar to David Wilson last season.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think that Ellington is likely a longterm COP player based on a bunch of different data points that have been discussed to death in this thread. He could be more, sure, but that's different than paying for him as if he IS more, which continues to be the issue with him. I own the guy in a few dynasty leagues, and would happily draft him as a RB3 in PPR redrafts this year -- but projecting median production of 1500+ yards, 50 catches, and 10+ TDs seems like a HUGE reach to me.

That's fair, and it takes us back to the old FF adage where if you wait to see how it works out then you've lost any chance to gain value.

Right now Ellington is priced somewhere between "clear COP back" and "clear lead back" because of the uncertainty. He could end up in the former area in which case his current price would be over-paying for him. He could also end up in the latter area in which case his current price is under-paying.

The trick is figuring out which area he fits into. You clearly feel that its the former which is fine, but you seem to be taking it as if that's locked into place. I agree with some of your reasons why he could end up in the former category but heavily disagree with some others. I think the main difference is that you feel that he's only used and/or been successful in space while I have been extremely impressed by his ability between the tackles. I also don't think his size is nearly the roadblock it once was in the NFL, as guys his size have taken the feature role and run with it as often as they've fallen flat on their face with it in recent years.

You're underestimating his price quite a bit. DLF has him at dynasty RB14 currently, MFL has him at RB17 for redraft. He was RB34 last year in PPG -- a HUGE role increase is already being priced in.

It looks like DLF has him at RB22 behind guys like Vereen, Stacy, Mathews, Tate, and Hyde.

http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/rb-rankings/

I think that's pretty well in the middle of where he was last year as a COP guy and where he would likely finish if he were a runaway lead back.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think that Ellington is likely a longterm COP player based on a bunch of different data points that have been discussed to death in this thread. He could be more, sure, but that's different than paying for him as if he IS more, which continues to be the issue with him. I own the guy in a few dynasty leagues, and would happily draft him as a RB3 in PPR redrafts this year -- but projecting median production of 1500+ yards, 50 catches, and 10+ TDs seems like a HUGE reach to me.

That's fair, and it takes us back to the old FF adage where if you wait to see how it works out then you've lost any chance to gain value.

Right now Ellington is priced somewhere between "clear COP back" and "clear lead back" because of the uncertainty. He could end up in the former area in which case his current price would be over-paying for him. He could also end up in the latter area in which case his current price is under-paying.

The trick is figuring out which area he fits into. You clearly feel that its the former which is fine, but you seem to be taking it as if that's locked into place. I agree with some of your reasons why he could end up in the former category but heavily disagree with some others. I think the main difference is that you feel that he's only used and/or been successful in space while I have been extremely impressed by his ability between the tackles. I also don't think his size is nearly the roadblock it once was in the NFL, as guys his size have taken the feature role and run with it as often as they've fallen flat on their face with it in recent years.

You're underestimating his price quite a bit. DLF has him at dynasty RB14 currently, MFL has him at RB17 for redraft. He was RB34 last year in PPG -- a HUGE role increase is already being priced in.

It looks like DLF has him at RB22 behind guys like Vereen, Stacy, Mathews, Tate, and Hyde.

http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/rb-rankings/

I think that's pretty well in the middle of where he was last year as a COP guy and where he would likely finish if he were a runaway lead back.

Those are the staff rankings. IMO ADP represents a more accurate measure of his true market value (while obviously being imperfect as well).

 

[Insein]

I fear a David Wilson style thread for him this summer. 500 new posts a day going back and forth aboit nothing.

I have a choice to keep him or Vereen. Im leaning Ellington.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I fear a David Wilson style thread for him this summer. 500 new posts a day going back and forth aboit nothing.

I have a choice to keep him or Vereen. Im leaning Ellington.

 

[cloppbeast]

I fear a David Wilson style thread for him this summer. 500 new posts a day going back and forth aboit nothing.

I have a choice to keep him or Vereen. Im leaning Ellington.

Go Ellington. At least he has some very enticing upside, with his coach promising to give him buttloads of carries. Arians tends to feed one running back.

The running back carousel in New England doesn't help Vereen.

 

[Eminence]

Thread starter here,

In PPR he's a must draft. In standard scoring, I wouldn't waste my time

The Head Coach loves him, has vouched he'll get the majority of carries, and passes the eyeball test.

What more do you want?

 

[ldizzle]

I thought Ellington would get the Daryl Richardson treatment. According to ya'll he's getting David Wilson hype instead.

It seems odd though, considering Ellington's (lack of) draft pedigree.

I don't see anyone advocating RB1 status with elite upside for Ellington like we did for Wilson. Discussing his being available in the third and slipping to the 4th isn't close to Wilson's projected ADP prior to his injury.

What was Wilson's ADP last year in re-draft?

That wasn't my position. My position was that there was promotion for Wilson being a RB1. Dp you disagree with that?

This convo has gone awry.

I brought up Wilson and Richardson solely for the purposes for determining ADP. Just with regards to comparing fantasy perception of the masses.

At first I compared Ellington's situation with Richardson's last season. Because I would think public perception would be similar. They both are late round running backs with an opportunity to start. And both came off a productive rookie season on a small sample size. Richardson was gotten in the 7th round of re-draft leagues last year.

Everybody told me I was crazy. They said Ellington is a re-draft 2nd/3rd. That's when I brought up David Wilson, because of his re-draft ADP last season - 2nd/3rd.

i agree with this. The hype is going to push him into dwilson territory of last year. Dwilson was the no questions starter going into last year and is an explosive back. Its too bad things turned out the way they did. I do see somewhat of a similarity to their situations except we dont know if he will be a 20-30 touch back like arians is spewing. I dont think the situation is like richardsons however

 

[Insein]

I fear a David Wilson style thread for him this summer. 500 new posts a day going back and forth aboit nothing.

I have a choice to keep him or Vereen. Im leaning Ellington.

I still don't get the Vereen love. I owned him all last year. He's so specialized. It's like a Dexter McCluster with a few more catches.

 

[PatsWillWin]

#lamarmiller

 

[Eminence]

#lamarmiller

So much wrong with this post. Ellington is more talented and half his line isn't going to disappear during the season.

If you play PPR, this guy will be decent.

 

[cloppbeast]

I still don't get the Vereen love. I owned him all last year. He's so specialized. It's like a Dexter McCluster with a few more catches.

Depending on the match-up, Vereen could get 2 carries with 2 receptions, or 15 carries with 9 receptions. The Patriots will for sure mix it up, especially with their running backs. If you own him, I hope you like thrill rides because it will be a roller coaster.

Ellington on the other hand, if you buy what Arians sells, has opportunities catching and rushing. If he pans out, Ellington offers much more reliability than Vereen.

Ellington has risk for the whole season, where Vereen has risk from week to week.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

#lamarmiller

So much wrong with this post. Ellington is more talented and half his line isn't going to disappear during the season.

If you play PPR, this guy will be decent.

Ellington is not an elite talent. I would venture to guess their talent level is closer then we think. I think many of you are going to be upset by this end result.

 

[Eminence]

#lamarmiller

So much wrong with this post. Ellington is more talented and half his line isn't going to disappear during the season.If you play PPR, this guy will be decent.

Ellington is not an elite talent. I would venture to guess their talent level is closer then we think. I think many of you are going to be upset by this end result.

He doesn't have to be elite, he just needs volume. His forte is catching passes, if he catches 60+ passes; everything else he does will be gravy.

I don't think he's a feature back but the rest of the backs in AZ are fairly underwhelming (Dwyer is decent).

 

[Eminence]

Cooper is going to rip open huge holes for him, btw.

 

[Khy]

#lamarmiller

So much wrong with this post. Ellington is more talented and half his line isn't going to disappear during the season.

If you play PPR, this guy will be decent.

Ellington is not an elite talent. I would venture to guess their talent level is closer then we think. I think many of you are going to be upset by this end result.

I think we might differ on Lamar Millers talent level too. I've never seen him as much more than just a fast guy personally. Think CJ2K if you put knee braces on him so he could only run straight and couldn't cut. That's how I see Lamar Miller when he runs. Good vision, good speed but couldn't dodge a grandmother in a runaway wheelchair.

 

[Eminence]

Don't get me wrong, I don't want him as my RB2. But as my RB3, plenty of potential value.

 

[fatness]

You're underestimating his price quite a bit. DLF has him at dynasty RB14 currently, MFL has him at RB17 for redraft. He was RB34 last year in PPG -- a HUGE role increase is already being priced in.

He was RB24 in my PPR league last year. For this year RB14-17 seems quite realistic for him.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Andre Ellington - RB - Cardinals

Andre Ellington did not have more than 15 carries in a game during his rookie year.

Coach Bruce Arians' recent assertion that he expects Ellington to handle "25-30 touches per game" was obvious hyperbole, but it's at least worth examining. Ellington didn't top 17 touches in a single game as a rookie, averaging 13.6 per week. Perhaps Ellington will climb to 17 touches a game in 2014 -- it'd be a win if he stayed healthy on that kind of workload -- but he's highly unlikely to compete for the league lead in touches. The Cardinals need to find a complement. Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor are next up on the depth chart.

Source: azcardinals.com

May 28 - 11:02 PM

 

[GroveDiesel]

I don't know how someone can call a player slow and a change of pace back in the same post. Weird.

He seemed like he had a lot of burst to me last year. The guy was up to top speed in an instant once he had the ball in his hands.

 

[Da Gildz]

Right? Slow and unathletic he says. Meanwhile he's breaking defenders ankles on his cuts. Was he slow on that 80-yd td run? Geez. This combine talk is ridiculous. Any measurables/combine talk vanishes once the player produces on the field. It's about PRODUCTION. We've seen crazy athletic/fast guys who stink and ones who didnt score that high in the combine and be great players. Just please enough of the draft/combine references. It's foolish.

 

[Da Gildz]

Someone tell me Arian Fosters measurables at the combine. Fast! Wait, no one cares about how fast his 40 time is now? Or his long jump? Really?

 

[Bronco Billy]

I fear a David Wilson style thread for him this summer. 500 new posts a day going back and forth aboit nothing.

I have a choice to keep him or Vereen. Im leaning Ellington.

I think we're well on our way. 100+ pages of the same posts repeated again and again could be within reach.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Someone tell me Arian Fosters measurables at the combine. Fast! Wait, no one cares about how fast his 40 time is now? Or his long jump? Really?

You're right in that after more than 1100 successful NFL carries Arian Foster's combine numbers and initial (lack of) draft position should play no part in assessing him as a player. Ellington has 118 career carries, though, so those things are still a pretty important part of the overall picture on him. Trusting the eyeball test on a tiny sample size is a great way to end up with a roster full of Jerious Norwood and Chris Perry. YMMV.

 

[Khy]

Someone tell me Arian Fosters measurables at the combine. Fast! Wait, no one cares about how fast his 40 time is now? Or his long jump? Really?

You're right in that after more than 1100 successful NFL carries Arian Foster's combine numbers and initial (lack of) draft position should play no part in assessing him as a player. Ellington has 118 career carries, though, so those things are still a pretty important part of the overall picture on him. Trusting the eyeball test on a tiny sample size is a great way to end up with a roster full of Jerious Norwood and Chris Perry. YMMV.

I think the point is... stating that someone is "too slow" or "too small" to be a feature back in this league is simply arrogant. You can't use hindsight as an excuse for said arrogance. There are 10s of 100s of examples of players who were the same size or smaller than Ellington and that were the same speed or faster than him that had amazing careers and in a lot of cases HoF careers in this league. HIndsight is always going to be 20/20, saying "Yeah but Foster has 1100 successful carries to Ellington's 118" is just being ridiculous. Sure, now at 1100 carries we know Foster is going to be the real deal. That isn't the point of fantasy and especially not of dynasty. The point there is to predict them before their breakout. Once they breakout, you've either missed the train or you're over paying.

If you don't like Ellington because of some obnoxious 'unproven' slate that you've placed him on, that's fine. But to sit here and argue "too slow" - "too small" - "not agile enough" to death when you're clearly wrong and the numbers, tape and histroy show that he's not any of those things is just ridiculous. The whole point of discussing players during dynasty season is to make educated guesses at how well they can perform in the NFL. Right now? Ellington looks primed for a big day.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Give me one example of a RB that was drafted 187th or later, weighs < 200 lbs, and runs a 4.6 or slower that went on to have an "amazing or HOF career." It's not that Ellington is too small. Or too slow. Or that 6th round picks can't succeed. It's that all three combine to make sustained success HUGELY unlikely for him. And yet here we are in May with multiple people throwing out top 10 RB projections based on May coachspeak and "ZOMG he's a beast just watch him!!!$!@!$!!"

 

[Khy]

Give me one example of a RB that was drafted 187th or later, weighs < 200 lbs, and runs a 4.6 or slower that went on to have an "amazing or HOF career." It's not that Ellington is too small. Or too slow. Or that 6th round picks can't succeed. It's that all three combine to make sustained success HUGELY unlikely for him. And yet here we are in May with multiple people throwing out top 10 RB projections based on May coachspeak and "ZOMG he's a beast just watch him!!!$!@!$!!"

Larry Brown - Drafted 191st overall - 5' 11" 195 lbs - Not HoF by any means but he led the league in rushing in 1970 and was pretty close in 72. He was a top 10 RB for a solid 3-4 years. **Can't find his 40 time**

Wilbert Montgomery - Drafted 154th overall - 5' 10" 196 lbs - Again not a HoF but once again, was one of the top backs in the NFL for 3-4 years. Was a two time all-pro. **Can't find his 40 time**

Terrell Davis - Drafted 196th overall - 5' 11" 206 lbs - 4.7 40 time - 3 time all pro, 3 time pro bowler. Likely future HoFer. Was arguably the best RB in the NFL from 95-98 when he broke the 2000 yard mark in a season. **I couldn't find his official 40 time but the time above is quoted from his own book, so I'll assume it's legit**

There is 3, do we really need to keep doing this?

 

[Banger]

Give me one example of a RB that was drafted 187th or later, weighs < 200 lbs, and runs a 4.6 or slower that went on to have an "amazing or HOF career." It's not that Ellington is too small. Or too slow. Or that 6th round picks can't succeed. It's that all three combine to make sustained success HUGELY unlikely for him. And yet here we are in May with multiple people throwing out top 10 RB projections based on May coachspeak and "ZOMG he's a beast just watch him!!!$!@!$!!"

CDL...you clearly are a knowledgable poster and I absolutely respect your opinion but I think guys like you sometimes get too caught up in measurables, comparisons, cone times, BMI, draft position and such. I think all of those things have a place and varying degrees of weight in player assessment but as a player plays in the NFL and you have evidence on the field against real NFL players the value of those things should diminish. That evidence includes not only how a player plays on the field but how the team "feels" about that player and the role they are giving them in the offense.

You mention Perry and Norwood but their coaches never said they were building the offense around them nor did they ever look to dramatically increase their touch count. They were viewed by their staffs as COP backs despite the various threads on the site stating that they should be the focal point of the offense. That isn't the case with Ellington...last year they kept the training wheels on him in his rookie year but from the sounds of it they are going to ramp up his role this year.

There are exceptions to every rule and if you are always looking for things that fit within a certain box you'll often miss out on outliers. I'm sure you'll disagree with me but wanted to post it nonetheless.

Personally, I don't see Ellington as a HOF candidate, nor the best RB in the league but I do see a good situation for a versatile RB.

 

[Da Gildz]

Give me one example of a RB that was drafted 187th or later, weighs < 200 lbs, and runs a 4.6 or slower that went on to have an "amazing or HOF career." It's not that Ellington is too small. Or too slow. Or that 6th round picks can't succeed. It's that all three combine to make sustained success HUGELY unlikely for him. And yet here we are in May with multiple people throwing out top 10 RB projections based on May coachspeak and "ZOMG he's a beast just watch him!!!$!@!$!!"

Larry Brown - Drafted 191st overall - 5' 11" 195 lbs - Not HoF by any means but he led the league in rushing in 1970 and was pretty close in 72. He was a top 10 RB for a solid 3-4 years. **Can't find his 40 time**

Wilbert Montgomery - Drafted 154th overall - 5' 10" 196 lbs - Again not a HoF but once again, was one of the top backs in the NFL for 3-4 years. Was a two time all-pro. **Can't find his 40 time**

Terrell Davis - Drafted 196th overall - 5' 11" 206 lbs - 4.7 40 time - 3 time all pro, 3 time pro bowler. Likely future HoFer. Was arguably the best RB in the NFL from 95-98 when he broke the 2000 yard mark in a season. **I couldn't find his official 40 time but the time above is quoted from his own book, so I'll assume it's legit**

There is 3, do we really need to keep doing this?

Owned.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Give me one example of a RB that was drafted 187th or later, weighs < 200 lbs, and runs a 4.6 or slower that went on to have an "amazing or HOF career."

OK, so now Ellington has to have an "amazing HOF career" or we are all wrong about him and you are right. Got it.

This thread is getting ridiculous.

 

[Da Gildz]

Exactly who brought up this HOF nonsense. I'll sign for a 2013 Zac Stacy. Geez

 

[Coeur de Lion]

There is 3, do we really need to keep doing this?

No, there are zero as none of them match the three criteria. And even so you had to stretch all the way back into the 70s, when size / strength / speed were not even remotely comparable to today, to find two of them. And no, we don't need to keep doing this. Obviously your colossal David Wilson (and Ellington himself) fail(s) last year taught you absolutely nothing about blindly taking huge leaps of faith comparing complete unknowns to established HOF level players. Good luck with Ellington this year, we can revisit in October or so.

 

[Khy]

Exactly who brought up this HOF nonsense. I'll sign for a 2013 Zac Stacy. Geez

I mentioned a few guys who were the exact same size as Ellington with similar speed and agility that ended up with HoF careers to bust the whole "He's too small and too slow" bs. Then he started asking for HoF talents that went in the 6th round, ran a 4.6 or less and was the same size as Ellington. I never said Ellington would be a HoF. But you know, the last 4 pages of this thread have been CDL putting words into everyone's mouths to prove his point.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Give me one example of a RB that was drafted 187th or later, weighs < 200 lbs, and runs a 4.6 or slower that went on to have an "amazing or HOF career."

OK, so now Ellington has to have an "amazing HOF career" or we are all wrong about him and you are right. Got it.This thread is getting ridiculous.

Of course he doesn't. You should read the thread -- my comment was a direct response to another posters claim that plenty of guys with profiles similar to Ellington having amazing HOF careers, which is absurd.

 

[Khy]

There is 3, do we really need to keep doing this?

No, there are zero as none of them match the three criteria. And even so you had to stretch all the way back into the 70s, when size / strength / speed were not even remotely comparable to today, to find two of them. And no, we don't need to keep doing this. Obviously your colossal David Wilson (and Ellington himself) fail(s) last year taught you absolutely nothing about blindly taking huge leaps of faith comparing complete unknowns to established HOF level players. Good luck with Ellington this year, we can revisit in October or so.

Lol what? How are their zero? Terrell Davis was drafted LATER than Ellington, had almost the exact same BMI as Ellington and was slower than Ellington? So how does he not qualify?

Also I'm sorry I didn't know that history only went back to a certain fixed point in time.

 

[Khy]

Give me one example of a RB that was drafted 187th or later, weighs < 200 lbs, and runs a 4.6 or slower that went on to have an "amazing or HOF career."

OK, so now Ellington has to have an "amazing HOF career" or we are all wrong about him and you are right. Got it.This thread is getting ridiculous.

Of course he doesn't. You should read the thread -- my comment was a direct response to another posters claim that plenty of guys with profiles similar to Ellington having amazing HOF careers, which is absurd.

No, it's not. Stating that a HoF player has similar measurables to Ellington is NOT EQUAL to saying that Ellington will be a HoF player. My god.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Trusting the eyeball test on a tiny sample size is a great way to end up with a roster full of Jerious Norwood and Chris Perry. YMMV.

Cool. This cherry picking with other players is fun.

Tiki Barber 5'-10" 200lbs. Yr 2000 early ADP RB46. Pick 13.01

2000 213 carries 70 catches 1725 total yds 9 TDs

Clinton Portis 5'-11" 205lbs Yr2002 early ADP RB27. Pick 7.05

2002 273 carries 33 catches 1872 total yds 17 TDs

Brian Westbrook 5'-8" 200lbs Yr2006 early ADP RB13. Pick 2.07

2006 240 carries 77 catches 1916 total yds 11 TDs

Maurice Jones-Drew 5'-8" 205lbs Yr2006 early ADP RB58. Pick 13.10

2006 166 carries 46 catches 1377 total yds 15 TDs

Chris Johnson 5'-11" 195lbs Yr2008 early ADP RB34. Pick 7.12

2008 251 carries 43 catches 1488 total yds 10 TDs

Ray Rice 5'-9" 195lbs Yr2009 early ADP RB26. Pick 6.03

2009 254 carries 78 catches 2041 total yds 8 TDs

Jamaal Charles 6'-1" 200lbs Yr2009 early ADP RB50. Pick 13.09

2009 190 carries 40 catches 1417 total yds 8 TDs

Ahmad Bradshaw 5'-11" 195lbs Yr2010 early ADP RB28. Pick 6.06

2010 276 carries 47 catches 1549 total yds 8 TDs

Darren Sproles 5'-6" 181lbs Yr2011 early ADP RB50. Pick 13.06

2011 87 carries 86 catches 1313 total yds 9 TDs

 

[Khy]

Trusting the eyeball test on a tiny sample size is a great way to end up with a roster full of Jerious Norwood and Chris Perry. YMMV.

Cool. This cherry picking with other players is fun.

Tiki Barber 5'-10" 200lbs. Yr 2000 early ADP RB46. Pick 13.01

2000 213 carries 70 catches 1725 total yds 9 TDs

Clinton Portis 5'-11" 205lbs Yr2002 early ADP RB27. Pick 7.05

2002 273 carries 33 catches 1872 total yds 17 TDs

Brian Westbrook 5'-8" 200lbs Yr2006 early ADP RB13. Pick 2.07

2006 240 carries 77 catches 1916 total yds 11 TDs

Maurice Jones-Drew 5'-8" 205lbs Yr2006 early ADP RB58. Pick 13.10

2006 166 carries 46 catches 1377 total yds 15 TDs

Chris Johnson 5'-11" 195lbs Yr2008 early ADP RB34. Pick 7.12

2008 251 carries 43 catches 1488 total yds 10 TDs

Ray Rice 5'-9" 195lbs Yr2009 early ADP RB26. Pick 6.03

2009 254 carries 78 catches 2041 total yds 8 TDs

Jamaal Charles 6'-1" 200lbs Yr2009 early ADP RB50. Pick 13.09

2009 190 carries 40 catches 1417 total yds 8 TDs

Ahmad Bradshaw 5'-11" 195lbs Yr2010 early ADP RB28. Pick 6.06

2010 276 carries 47 catches 1549 total yds 8 TDs

Darren Sproles 5'-6" 181lbs Yr2011 early ADP RB50. Pick 13.06

2011 87 carries 86 catches 1313 total yds 9 TDs

None of those count, none of them are the exact same. Your comparison player must be 5' 9" 199 lbs and run exactly a 4.61 40 AND be drafted at pick 187 or later to be applicable to the discussion. All of these guys (and the ones I mentioned) only apply to 3/4 of those attributes. SORRY CDL wins.