That's FANTASY production. Not NFL production.
I understand believing Ellington is a superior talent. I don't, but I can respect that stance. But it kills me when folks say he couldn't be pushed out by 3rd round draft pick when he was a 6th round draft pick. Either draft position matters, or it doesn't, can't have it both ways. And you can't really fall back on a long storied NFL career that trumps Ellington's draft position. All excuses aside, he had one really good season of part-time performance, and zero really good seasons of bell-cow performance.
In short: Your draft position matters until it doesn't.
I don't think he CAN'T be pushed aside by a 3rd rounder but it's unlikely. It's unlikely that most 3rd rounders even stay in the league. The third round picks in the last 10 drafts are:
Charles Sims
Tre Mason
Terrance West
Jerrick McKinnon
Dri Archer
Knile Davis
Ronnie Hillman
Bernard Pierce
Demarco Murray
Stevan Ridley
Alex Green
Shonn Green
Glen Coffee
Kevin Smith
Jacob Hester
Jamaal Charles
Steve Slaton
Lorenzo Booker
Tony Hunt
Garrett Wolf
Brian Calhoun
Jerious Norwood.
That's two hits out of 22 players. Maybe another two or three so-so players (Mason, Ridley, McKinnon) Still though, it's basically a crap shoot to be much of anything in the NFL at all if you were a third rounder. Chances are David Johnson isn't going to amount to much. If he does, great he could be gold. Now, I understand that Andre Ellington is a 6th round pick. But we know he can play. So calling him just a 6th round pick falls short. He's already proven it on the field (while hurt mind you). The converse is Trent Richardson, we know he's not worthy of being a Top 5 rookie pick.
We all know later round picks don't have great odds for amazing featured back production. But the 6th round odds are a lot worse than the 3rd round odds, and yet he we are with Ellington. And just looking at these third round guys more or less illustrates my point. Two of the guys were the best back by far last year and the best back by far the year before. Then we have the LATE 2nd rounders who rounded out the best backs in the league last year. Others look great for brief periods or in part-time duty, then fall by the wayside or just continue to play their role.
Bernard Pierce looked great part time in his rookie year. Really fell off in his 2nd.
Slaton was also fantastic his rookie year, producing more then Ellington has to date. Could't keep it up full time.
Norwood looked FANTASTIC in part time duty, but wasn't meant to be a starter.
West and McKinnon have had their moments, and the book isn't closed on them.
Mason is another perfect example. Looked great one year, then replaced by a bigger back.
It happens over and over. There are very few true bell cows coming from ANY draft slot, that's why they are so valuable.
Ellington isn't built like a bell-cow, doesn't play like a bell-cow, and has now struggled mightily in his first bell-cow role shot. Since then the team has publicly stated they needed a bigger, faster back, and has now DRAFTED a bigger faster back, I don't think he's going to get another shot to be a featured back.
I'm not saying Johnson is going to take ALL the carries or even get the vast majority, but Ellington won't either, and Johnson now has the better chance to get enough carries to be a fantasy starter. He's a great receiving back and certainly isn't going to be pulled for Ellington on short-yardage. So there isn't really anything for Ellington to "make up the difference" with either.
My best guess is that Ellington and Johnson will split duty fairly evenly early in the year, and if Johnson turns out to be any good, he will gradually take away more and more opportunities from Ellington as the year progresses.
He isn't getting 23 touches per game. Simple as that. Believe what you want to. There will always be material like this for those of you looking to feed your confirmation bias, but as a total outsider, I realize that Ellington's bell cow days are likely* over.
