Andre Ellington - RB - Clemson. (2 Viewers)

[FF Ninja]

He obviously didn't play well for the most part last year. I'm not sure how people could argue otherwise on that front.

Likewise, it's equally silly that the other side is just ignoring that he came into the season injured. He clearly didn't look the same last year, even from the 1st carry of the year so it wasn't like he was worn down from carrying the ball so much. He never had that same burst or the lateral quickness that he had his rookie year. It was clear that the foot REALLY bothered him.

That's kind of the way the FF community rolls though. When a guy plays at well below 100% and it hampers his play they just assume that he wasn't that good. Those guys often represent fantastic value. Wes Welker and Edgerrin James weren't just great value buys the year after they tore their ACL and were coming off a season on the IR. They were also great value buys TWO years after they tore their ACL and they were coming off a season where they underperformed while playing at only 60%.

Adam Harstad has written extensively on the value in buying players coming off an injury. That is not limited to players that had an injury that immediately put them on IR. If the foot is back to 100% this year then I think Ellington is a great buy, even if his workload is a bit less than it was last year. The question all offseason is whether he would get that chance again. David Johnson in the 3rd round isn't nothing, but it's certainly not the opportunity crusher that most Ellington owners feared this offseason.

I'm all about drafting players after injury. In fact, I love a good high ankle sprain because those guys always tank while playing with them and they are the easiest debilitating injury to recover from. Ellington was on my radar this year due to the likely injury discount, but the problem here is the addition of another, bigger back. It adds a completely new layer of unknown. People who are blindly pushing their chips in on Ellington are taking a huge risk. Ellington has been going around RB20 on footballcalc and that possibility that he gets supplanted by a rookie is not palatable for me for my RB2.

Do I recognize there is a possibility the rookie is a flop and Ellington maintains his lead role? For sure. Unlike blustery fellows like Sabertooth I don't have binary thinking. He seems 100% certain that Ellington is going to get 23 touches per game again.

Personally, I'd rather have a guy like Spiller for around the same redraft price. He won't get 23 touches per game, either, but he'll at least be put in a position to maximize his talents. Should the new competition in Arizona drastically drop Ellington's price then I'll have to rethink things. But currently at RB2 pricing, he's quite risky.

FWIW, I'm viewing this solely from a redraft standpoint. But something people in dynasty leagues might want to consider is that Ellington is just half a year younger than McCoy. He was an abnormally old rookie two years ago.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Here is the thing. First you are making excuses by claiming injury as to why he struggled.

I'm not a huge Ellington fan, but to be fair it seems people's memories are very short. There were serious questions as to whether Ellington would start the season on the PUP or even miss the entire year when he hurt his foot late in training camp. It was a serious injury whether one wants to admit it or not, and it would seem pretty logical that a serious foot injury would slow a RB like Ellington down. The rest of the RBs rostered by Arizona at the time were not legitimate options so the team had no choice but to push Ellington out there. As some one that doesn't see Johnson as a great prospect (I think he's soft), I'd still avoid this situation completely due to it's murkiness (unless either back came very cheaply which I doubt), but I don't think the injury angle is really an "excuse", it's a legitimate possible explanation.

 

[Hoosier16]

Here is the thing. First you are making excuses by claiming injury as to why he struggled.

I'm not a huge Ellington fan, but to be fair it seems people's memories are very short. There were serious questions as to whether Ellington would start the season on the PUP or even miss the entire year when he hurt his foot late in training camp. It was a serious injury whether one wants to admit it or not, and it would seem pretty logical that a serious foot injury would slow a RB like Ellington down. The rest of the RBs rostered by Arizona at the time were not legitimate options so the team had no choice but to push Ellington out there. As some one that doesn't see Johnson as a great prospect (I think he's soft), I'd still avoid this situation completely due to it's murkiness (unless either back came very cheaply which I doubt), but I don't think the injury angle is really an "excuse", it's a legitimate possible explanation.

What makes you think he's soft? He had 1007 touches in college.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Here is the thing. First you are making excuses by claiming injury as to why he struggled.

I'm not a huge Ellington fan, but to be fair it seems people's memories are very short. There were serious questions as to whether Ellington would start the season on the PUP or even miss the entire year when he hurt his foot late in training camp. It was a serious injury whether one wants to admit it or not, and it would seem pretty logical that a serious foot injury would slow a RB like Ellington down. The rest of the RBs rostered by Arizona at the time were not legitimate options so the team had no choice but to push Ellington out there. As some one that isn't a big fan of Johnson, I'd still avoid this situation completely due to it's murkiness (unless either back cam very cheaply which I doubt), but I don't think the injury angle is really an "excuse", it's a legitimate possible explanation.

OK, so he was injured. Let's use the best case for him and completely throw that season out. Because if you DON'T factor in the injury he looked awful. So let's just forget it. Now what do we have left? You have a 5'9" 200 pound back who looked really good in part time duty. He has ONE 100 yard game to his name (the game where he had an 80 yard TD). Drafted in the 6th round, with no college seasons where he had at least half of his teams carries.

So if you throw last season out, which is his best bet, he has had ZERO seasons in college or the pros where he carried a full time load. And now he has a higher drafted, bigger, faster back to contend with. And this guy HAS successfully carried the load for a team, with receiving being one of his best skill sets - the area that many are expecting Ellington to dominate to maintain fantasy relevance.

 

[Banger]

He obviously didn't play well for the most part last year. I'm not sure how people could argue otherwise on that front.

Likewise, it's equally silly that the other side is just ignoring that he came into the season injured. He clearly didn't look the same last year, even from the 1st carry of the year so it wasn't like he was worn down from carrying the ball so much. He never had that same burst or the lateral quickness that he had his rookie year. It was clear that the foot REALLY bothered him.

That's kind of the way the FF community rolls though. When a guy plays at well below 100% and it hampers his play they just assume that he wasn't that good. Those guys often represent fantastic value. Wes Welker and Edgerrin James weren't just great value buys the year after they tore their ACL and were coming off a season on the IR. They were also great value buys TWO years after they tore their ACL and they were coming off a season where they underperformed while playing at only 60%.

Adam Harstad has written extensively on the value in buying players coming off an injury. That is not limited to players that had an injury that immediately put them on IR. If the foot is back to 100% this year then I think Ellington is a great buy, even if his workload is a bit less than it was last year. The question all offseason is whether he would get that chance again. David Johnson in the 3rd round isn't nothing, but it's certainly not the opportunity crusher that most Ellington owners feared this offseason.

I'm all about drafting players after injury. In fact, I love a good high ankle sprain because those guys always tank while playing with them and they are the easiest debilitating injury to recover from. Ellington was on my radar this year due to the likely injury discount, but the problem here is the addition of another, bigger back. It adds a completely new layer of unknown. People who are blindly pushing their chips in on Ellington are taking a huge risk. Ellington has been going around RB20 on footballcalc and that possibility that he gets supplanted by a rookie is not palatable for me for my RB2.

Do I recognize there is a possibility the rookie is a flop and Ellington maintains his lead role? For sure. Unlike blustery fellows like Sabertooth I don't have binary thinking. He seems 100% certain that Ellington is going to get 23 touches per game again.

Personally, I'd rather have a guy like Spiller for around the same redraft price. He won't get 23 touches per game, either, but he'll at least be put in a position to maximize his talents. Should the new competition in Arizona drastically drop Ellington's price then I'll have to rethink things. But currently at RB2 pricing, he's quite risky.

FWIW, I'm viewing this solely from a redraft standpoint. But something people in dynasty leagues might want to consider is that Ellington is just half a year younger than McCoy. He was an abnormally old rookie two years ago.

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

He obviously didn't play well for the most part last year. I'm not sure how people could argue otherwise on that front.

Likewise, it's equally silly that the other side is just ignoring that he came into the season injured. He clearly didn't look the same last year, even from the 1st carry of the year so it wasn't like he was worn down from carrying the ball so much. He never had that same burst or the lateral quickness that he had his rookie year. It was clear that the foot REALLY bothered him.

That's kind of the way the FF community rolls though. When a guy plays at well below 100% and it hampers his play they just assume that he wasn't that good. Those guys often represent fantastic value. Wes Welker and Edgerrin James weren't just great value buys the year after they tore their ACL and were coming off a season on the IR. They were also great value buys TWO years after they tore their ACL and they were coming off a season where they underperformed while playing at only 60%.

Adam Harstad has written extensively on the value in buying players coming off an injury. That is not limited to players that had an injury that immediately put them on IR. If the foot is back to 100% this year then I think Ellington is a great buy, even if his workload is a bit less than it was last year. The question all offseason is whether he would get that chance again. David Johnson in the 3rd round isn't nothing, but it's certainly not the opportunity crusher that most Ellington owners feared this offseason.

I'm all about drafting players after injury. In fact, I love a good high ankle sprain because those guys always tank while playing with them and they are the easiest debilitating injury to recover from. Ellington was on my radar this year due to the likely injury discount, but the problem here is the addition of another, bigger back. It adds a completely new layer of unknown. People who are blindly pushing their chips in on Ellington are taking a huge risk. Ellington has been going around RB20 on footballcalc and that possibility that he gets supplanted by a rookie is not palatable for me for my RB2.

Do I recognize there is a possibility the rookie is a flop and Ellington maintains his lead role? For sure. Unlike blustery fellows like Sabertooth I don't have binary thinking. He seems 100% certain that Ellington is going to get 23 touches per game again.

Personally, I'd rather have a guy like Spiller for around the same redraft price. He won't get 23 touches per game, either, but he'll at least be put in a position to maximize his talents. Should the new competition in Arizona drastically drop Ellington's price then I'll have to rethink things. But currently at RB2 pricing, he's quite risky.

FWIW, I'm viewing this solely from a redraft standpoint. But something people in dynasty leagues might want to consider is that Ellington is just half a year younger than McCoy. He was an abnormally old rookie two years ago.

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

Spiller has a ton of risk too IMO. But he does have a 1200 rushing yard season under his belt. Ellington's high was 660 last year. I don't hold out much hope for either of them to be fantasy relevant except as backups.

Ellington is not any more established or proven than the 3rd rounder. He had a surprisingly excellent rookie season in part time duty as a 6th rounder. That's all.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Here is the thing. First you are making excuses by claiming injury as to why he struggled.

I'm not a huge Ellington fan, but to be fair it seems people's memories are very short. There were serious questions as to whether Ellington would start the season on the PUP or even miss the entire year when he hurt his foot late in training camp. It was a serious injury whether one wants to admit it or not, and it would seem pretty logical that a serious foot injury would slow a RB like Ellington down. The rest of the RBs rostered by Arizona at the time were not legitimate options so the team had no choice but to push Ellington out there. As some one that doesn't see Johnson as a great prospect (I think he's soft), I'd still avoid this situation completely due to it's murkiness (unless either back came very cheaply which I doubt), but I don't think the injury angle is really an "excuse", it's a legitimate possible explanation.

What makes you think he's soft? He had 1007 touches in college.

Admittedly there's only two game cut ups out there so it's a small sample size, but I don't think he attacks defenders and looks to avoid contact (despite his size). At times he actually looks like he pulled back to brace for the hit instead of falling forward and gaining those extra yards or two. It may not be a huge deal, but it's just my opinion on him based on the info that I have. He's in a good landing spot at least and he does fit the Arians offense.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

It's not like Ellington had some long standing role with the team. Don't forget that he's just one year removed from being stuck behind the plodding Mendenhall. Arians can't be trusted to give Ellington his role back.

As for Spiller, the answer is quite simple: Sean Payton. Spiller has shown elite ability in the NFL and has come off two seasons of both injury and misuse, so his value is very depleted. But Sean Payton paid him to come to New Orleans despite being short on cash. Payton has found ways to make Pierre Thomas and Sproles into fantasy relevant players. We don't need to know Spiller's exact role to know that Payton can find a way to make him worth his current redraft price, possibly a lot more. We both know Robinson and Ingram are not threats to Spiller's role in the passing game which is where Spiller will at least justify his ADP. Any extra rushes he gets will just boost his value beyond his ADP. Spiller + turf + Payton is going to be gold, Jerry. Gold!

 

[Sabertooth]

He obviously didn't play well for the most part last year. I'm not sure how people could argue otherwise on that front.

Likewise, it's equally silly that the other side is just ignoring that he came into the season injured. He clearly didn't look the same last year, even from the 1st carry of the year so it wasn't like he was worn down from carrying the ball so much. He never had that same burst or the lateral quickness that he had his rookie year. It was clear that the foot REALLY bothered him.

That's kind of the way the FF community rolls though. When a guy plays at well below 100% and it hampers his play they just assume that he wasn't that good. Those guys often represent fantastic value. Wes Welker and Edgerrin James weren't just great value buys the year after they tore their ACL and were coming off a season on the IR. They were also great value buys TWO years after they tore their ACL and they were coming off a season where they underperformed while playing at only 60%.

Adam Harstad has written extensively on the value in buying players coming off an injury. That is not limited to players that had an injury that immediately put them on IR. If the foot is back to 100% this year then I think Ellington is a great buy, even if his workload is a bit less than it was last year. The question all offseason is whether he would get that chance again. David Johnson in the 3rd round isn't nothing, but it's certainly not the opportunity crusher that most Ellington owners feared this offseason.

I'm all about drafting players after injury. In fact, I love a good high ankle sprain because those guys always tank while playing with them and they are the easiest debilitating injury to recover from. Ellington was on my radar this year due to the likely injury discount, but the problem here is the addition of another, bigger back. It adds a completely new layer of unknown. People who are blindly pushing their chips in on Ellington are taking a huge risk. Ellington has been going around RB20 on footballcalc and that possibility that he gets supplanted by a rookie is not palatable for me for my RB2.

Do I recognize there is a possibility the rookie is a flop and Ellington maintains his lead role? For sure. Unlike blustery fellows like Sabertooth I don't have binary thinking. He seems 100% certain that Ellington is going to get 23 touches per game again.

Personally, I'd rather have a guy like Spiller for around the same redraft price. He won't get 23 touches per game, either, but he'll at least be put in a position to maximize his talents. Should the new competition in Arizona drastically drop Ellington's price then I'll have to rethink things. But currently at RB2 pricing, he's quite risky.

FWIW, I'm viewing this solely from a redraft standpoint. But something people in dynasty leagues might want to consider is that Ellington is just half a year younger than McCoy. He was an abnormally old rookie two years ago.

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

Spiller has a ton of risk too IMO. But he does have a 1200 rushing yard season under his belt. Ellington's high was 660 last year. I don't hold out much hope for either of them to be fantasy relevant except as backups.

Ellington is not any more established or proven than the 3rd rounder. He had a surprisingly excellent rookie season in part time duty as a 6th rounder. That's all.

How can you discount a player who, while hurt, scored more PPG in fantasy than every single rookie last year? How do you throw out a season where he scored in the top 20 despite playing hurt for every single snap?

 

[Slapdash]

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

It's not like Ellington had some long standing role with the team. Don't forget that he's just one year removed from being stuck behind the plodding Mendenhall. Arians can't be trusted to give Ellington his role back.

As for Spiller, the answer is quite simple: Sean Payton. Spiller has shown elite ability in the NFL and has come off two seasons of both injury and misuse, so his value is very depleted. But Sean Payton paid him to come to New Orleans despite being short on cash. Payton has found ways to make Pierre Thomas and Sproles into fantasy relevant players. We don't need to know Spiller's exact role to know that Payton can find a way to make him worth his current redraft price, possibly a lot more. We both know Robinson and Ingram are not threats to Spiller's role in the passing game which is where Spiller will at least justify his ADP. Any extra rushes he gets will just boost his value beyond his ADP. Spiller + turf + Payton is going to be gold, Jerry. Gold!

Is this the same Spiller who could not beat out old ### Fred Jackson in the passing game?

 

[ldizzle]

Is anyone not concerned that Ellington has had some sort of injury every year going all the way back to college? I feel like he is injury prone.

 

[Slapdash]

Is anyone not concerned that Ellington has had some sort of injury every year going all the way back to college? I feel like he is injury prone.

Absolutely. However, I just checked the current FBGs dynasty rankings. He is sandwiched between Spiller and J Stewart, both of which also have extensive injury history.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

It's not like Ellington had some long standing role with the team. Don't forget that he's just one year removed from being stuck behind the plodding Mendenhall. Arians can't be trusted to give Ellington his role back.

As for Spiller, the answer is quite simple: Sean Payton. Spiller has shown elite ability in the NFL and has come off two seasons of both injury and misuse, so his value is very depleted. But Sean Payton paid him to come to New Orleans despite being short on cash. Payton has found ways to make Pierre Thomas and Sproles into fantasy relevant players. We don't need to know Spiller's exact role to know that Payton can find a way to make him worth his current redraft price, possibly a lot more. We both know Robinson and Ingram are not threats to Spiller's role in the passing game which is where Spiller will at least justify his ADP. Any extra rushes he gets will just boost his value beyond his ADP. Spiller + turf + Payton is going to be gold, Jerry. Gold!

Is this the same Spiller who could not beat out old ### Fred Jackson in the passing game?

Bashing Fred Jackson is a pretty common theme among the anti-Spiller crew on here, and it's pretty hugely misguided. Fred Jackson, old or not, has been really, really good. Good enough to show Marshawn Lynch the door in Buffalo. Good enough to average over 1000 YFS and 40 catches a year for the last 8 years as an undrafted arena league and NFL Europe import competing with much higher profile players. Jackson has been a huge asset to the Bills in all phases of RB play. His 2011 was particularly epic, averaging 140 YFS and 1 TD / game through 10 games prior to getting hurt -- those are totally legitimate NFL MVP type numbers, and he did that on a bad 6 win team. His continuing production into his 30s is pretty astonishing and unprecedented. He is a damn good RB, and "LOL Spiller couldn't beat out Fred Jackson" is really, really weak.

 

[Sabertooth]

Is anyone not concerned that Ellington has had some sort of injury every year going all the way back to college? I feel like he is injury prone.

I tend to go with the philosophy that you can't predict injury. I get burned sometimes, but strike gold other times. Fred Taylor taught me that lesson. I think there was an article a while back that didn't find much correlation between past and future injuries.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

ESPN Cardinals reporter Josh Weinfuss says third-round RB David Johnson has a good shot at red-zone work.

Johnson doesn't play as big as his 6'1/224 frame would suggest, but he's still a better option in short yardage than featherweight Andre Ellington. Johnson is also far more talented than Stepfan Taylor and Kerwynn Williams. So even though Ellington is fully expected to retain his starting gig and remain a focal point of the offense, Johnson will have value as a backup to an injury-prone player and a candidate for both inside running and goal-line work.

Related: Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor

Source: ESPN.com
May 5 - 8:52 AM

 

[Slapdash]

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

It's not like Ellington had some long standing role with the team. Don't forget that he's just one year removed from being stuck behind the plodding Mendenhall. Arians can't be trusted to give Ellington his role back.

As for Spiller, the answer is quite simple: Sean Payton. Spiller has shown elite ability in the NFL and has come off two seasons of both injury and misuse, so his value is very depleted. But Sean Payton paid him to come to New Orleans despite being short on cash. Payton has found ways to make Pierre Thomas and Sproles into fantasy relevant players. We don't need to know Spiller's exact role to know that Payton can find a way to make him worth his current redraft price, possibly a lot more. We both know Robinson and Ingram are not threats to Spiller's role in the passing game which is where Spiller will at least justify his ADP. Any extra rushes he gets will just boost his value beyond his ADP. Spiller + turf + Payton is going to be gold, Jerry. Gold!

Is this the same Spiller who could not beat out old ### Fred Jackson in the passing game?

Bashing Fred Jackson is a pretty common theme among the anti-Spiller crew on here, and it's pretty hugely misguided. Fred Jackson, old or not, has been really, really good. Good enough to show Marshawn Lynch the door in Buffalo. Good enough to average over 1000 YFS and 40 catches a year for the last 8 years as an undrafted arena league and NFL Europe import competing with much higher profile players. Jackson has been a huge asset to the Bills in all phases of RB play. His 2011 was particularly epic, averaging 140 YFS and 1 TD / game through 10 games prior to getting hurt -- those are totally legitimate NFL MVP type numbers, and he did that on a bad 6 win team. His continuing production into his 30s is pretty astonishing and unprecedented. He is a damn good RB, and "LOL Spiller couldn't beat out Fred Jackson" is really, really weak.

My point wasn't to bash Spiller or Jackson, but to suggest Spiller's role in NO is anything but clear. We have little evidence to suggest Spiller is a special talent in the passing game that his role is beyond question.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

He obviously didn't play well for the most part last year. I'm not sure how people could argue otherwise on that front.

Likewise, it's equally silly that the other side is just ignoring that he came into the season injured. He clearly didn't look the same last year, even from the 1st carry of the year so it wasn't like he was worn down from carrying the ball so much. He never had that same burst or the lateral quickness that he had his rookie year. It was clear that the foot REALLY bothered him.

That's kind of the way the FF community rolls though. When a guy plays at well below 100% and it hampers his play they just assume that he wasn't that good. Those guys often represent fantastic value. Wes Welker and Edgerrin James weren't just great value buys the year after they tore their ACL and were coming off a season on the IR. They were also great value buys TWO years after they tore their ACL and they were coming off a season where they underperformed while playing at only 60%.

Adam Harstad has written extensively on the value in buying players coming off an injury. That is not limited to players that had an injury that immediately put them on IR. If the foot is back to 100% this year then I think Ellington is a great buy, even if his workload is a bit less than it was last year. The question all offseason is whether he would get that chance again. David Johnson in the 3rd round isn't nothing, but it's certainly not the opportunity crusher that most Ellington owners feared this offseason.

I'm all about drafting players after injury. In fact, I love a good high ankle sprain because those guys always tank while playing with them and they are the easiest debilitating injury to recover from. Ellington was on my radar this year due to the likely injury discount, but the problem here is the addition of another, bigger back. It adds a completely new layer of unknown. People who are blindly pushing their chips in on Ellington are taking a huge risk. Ellington has been going around RB20 on footballcalc and that possibility that he gets supplanted by a rookie is not palatable for me for my RB2.

Do I recognize there is a possibility the rookie is a flop and Ellington maintains his lead role? For sure. Unlike blustery fellows like Sabertooth I don't have binary thinking. He seems 100% certain that Ellington is going to get 23 touches per game again.

Personally, I'd rather have a guy like Spiller for around the same redraft price. He won't get 23 touches per game, either, but he'll at least be put in a position to maximize his talents. Should the new competition in Arizona drastically drop Ellington's price then I'll have to rethink things. But currently at RB2 pricing, he's quite risky.

FWIW, I'm viewing this solely from a redraft standpoint. But something people in dynasty leagues might want to consider is that Ellington is just half a year younger than McCoy. He was an abnormally old rookie two years ago.

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

Spiller has a ton of risk too IMO. But he does have a 1200 rushing yard season under his belt. Ellington's high was 660 last year. I don't hold out much hope for either of them to be fantasy relevant except as backups.

Ellington is not any more established or proven than the 3rd rounder. He had a surprisingly excellent rookie season in part time duty as a 6th rounder. That's all.

How can you discount a player who, while hurt, scored more PPG in fantasy than every single rookie last year? How do you throw out a season where he scored in the top 20 despite playing hurt for every single snap?

Because you can't have it both ways. I threw it out because he looked HORRIBLE. He got fantasy stats because of volume alone, not because of anything impressive on the field. He was the least effective RB in the league, except maybe Richardson.

So if that's all injury, fine, throw it out we will pretend it didn't happen. But if you keep it, keep it and own it.

To some degree, I don't care about last year's fantasy stats. I care about what I think this year's fantasy stats are going to look like. And that depends more on how well a player really did than how padded his stats got in arbitrary fantasy scoring system like PPR. He was a great example of why PPR is awful in the first place.

Ellington also had quite a few drops last year (and the year before), among the most for RBs. So it's not like he was really lighting it up catching the ball aside from the high targets. He had 6 drops. Forte had 4 on twice as many targets. Bell had three on 50% more targets. Lacy had one drop. Murray had 1 drop on the same targets. I hope his toe didn't cause those drops. He wasn't a big pass-catcher in college - it was the scheme last year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

My point wasn't to bash Spiller or Jackson, but to suggest Spiller's role in NO is anything but clear. We have little evidence to suggest Spiller is a special talent in the passing game that his role is beyond question.

There is certainly room for reasonable disagreement on Spiller himself. I personally see a pretty special talent who has been held back due to situation and injuries. His status as a top-10 NFL pick, his career efficiency metrics, and his numbers in 2012 when he actually was given a chance to be the main guy seem to support this -- but as I said, there is room for a different interpretation given the way his career has played out this far.

I do disagree with you on the amount of uncertainty on his role in NO though. The Saints throw to their RBs an absolute ton. Sproles, Thomas, and Graham are all gone now, and someone is going to get a pile of short - intermediate targets. The Saints, despite a very rough cap situation, went out and gave Spiller more money than they gave Ingram. Spiller doesn't need to be a special talent to crush his ADP in PPR FF this year -- he probably just needs to be "better than Ingram and Robinson in the passing game only," which is kind of hard to argue IMO. If he also proves to be the best runner on the roster, then look out -- but that's just gravy if it plays out that way.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I personally see a pretty special talent who has been held back due to situation and injuries.

I see a guy who absolutely could not beat out Fred Jackson. A 31-33 year old Fred Jackson.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I personally see a pretty special talent who has been held back due to situation and injuries.

I see a guy who absolutely could not beat out Fred Jackson. A 31-33 year old Fred Jackson.

A.) Scroll up a bit LOL

B.) He doesn't need to worry about Freddy anymore -- just Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, and neither of them are even close to as good as Jackson.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I personally see a pretty special talent who has been held back due to situation and injuries.

I see a guy who absolutely could not beat out Fred Jackson. A 31-33 year old Fred Jackson.

A.) Scroll up a bit LOL

B.) He doesn't need to worry about Freddy anymore -- just Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, and neither of them are even close to as good as Jackson.

He isn't getting past Ingram. He will be the "other" option.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I personally see a pretty special talent who has been held back due to situation and injuries.

I see a guy who absolutely could not beat out Fred Jackson. A 31-33 year old Fred Jackson.

A.) Scroll up a bit LOLB.) He doesn't need to worry about Freddy anymore -- just Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, and neither of them are even close to as good as Jackson.

He isn't getting past Ingram. He will be the "other" option.

Based on what, exactly? Because from where I'm sitting, Spiller's career is far more impressive based on virtually every metric one could look at. It's not even close, despite the fact that Ingram has been in a vastly superior offense the entire time.If you want to say that Ingram might get more carries than Spiller -- fine, that's possible. But Spiller is far and away a better receiver, and those passing game touches are where the FF points are in the NO offense.

ETA: New Orleans evidently thinks Spiller is better too based on the $ each guy got.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Ill just say this... wrong thread.

Apologies to the readers of the Ellington thread for getting hooked into this.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Ill just say this... wrong thread.

Apologies to the readers of the Ellington thread for getting hooked into this.

True. Given the lack of meaningful non-rookie discussion here though, I doubt too many people really mind.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

It's not like Ellington had some long standing role with the team. Don't forget that he's just one year removed from being stuck behind the plodding Mendenhall. Arians can't be trusted to give Ellington his role back.

As for Spiller, the answer is quite simple: Sean Payton. Spiller has shown elite ability in the NFL and has come off two seasons of both injury and misuse, so his value is very depleted. But Sean Payton paid him to come to New Orleans despite being short on cash. Payton has found ways to make Pierre Thomas and Sproles into fantasy relevant players. We don't need to know Spiller's exact role to know that Payton can find a way to make him worth his current redraft price, possibly a lot more. We both know Robinson and Ingram are not threats to Spiller's role in the passing game which is where Spiller will at least justify his ADP. Any extra rushes he gets will just boost his value beyond his ADP. Spiller + turf + Payton is going to be gold, Jerry. Gold!

Is this the same Spiller who could not beat out old ### Fred Jackson in the passing game?

*sigh*

Don't be lazy. This is one of the laziest, dumbest arguments against Spiller. So dumb that I can explain it away in two words: pass blocking.

Spiller was not as good as Fred Jackson at pass blocking. Very few are. This was something Marrone valued. Spiller is actually a very, very good receiver. Probably one of the best in the NFL at his position. I've seen him high point the ball, adjust to the ball, catch with his hands. He's got it all when it comes to catching the ball. But he's not as good as Fred at pass blocking.

But if you bother to do research, you'd find that Sean Payton rarely uses his RBs to pass block, but he uses the hell out of them to catch the ball (if you didn't click the link, Sproles ranked 46th out of 46 qualifying players for % of snaps kept in to block at 4.3% - less than HALF the % of the 45th ranked player). I guess it kind of makes sense that he brought Spiller in? One could be lazy and smart and just assume that Payton brought Spiller in for a reason, like he did Sproles, but being lazy and assuming Spiller is not actually good in the passing game due to Fred Jackson getting more time than him under failed coach Doug Marrone is a viable alternative, I guess.

I mean, maybe Sean Payton is paying Spiller simply to be an injury backup for the oft-injured Ingram? Seems like a Sean Payton move. They are basically the same RB. With Robinson they've got three clones. And with the departure of Thomas and Cadet we can only assume the Saints are going to abandon passing to the RBs. They've averaged 199 targets to RBs in the last 4 years, but that'll probably come to a grinding halt. /s

And as CDL said, Fred Jackson was an excellent football player. Despite this, when Chan Gailey unleashed Spiller's potential, he easily made Fred Jackon an afterthought in 2012, averaging 6 ypc over 200+ carries and over 10 ypr on 43 receptions. You think Sean Payton is more like Marrone or Gailey? Smart money is on Gailey. Dumb money says, "but... but... he couldn't beat out Fred Jackson."

Sorry for the diversion from Ellington. I only brought up Spiller as a suggested alternative pick at the same position at the same approximate draft spot. To me they are similar players in similar situations. They will both earn their money in the passing game and have larger backs likely taking early down and goal line work. The difference is that Spiller is much more physically gifted than Ellington and Sean Payton throws much more to his RBs than Bruce Arians.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Sorry for the diversion from Ellington. I only brought up Spiller as a suggested alternative pick at the same position at the same approximate draft spot. To me they are similar players in similar situations. They will both earn their money in the passing game and have larger backs likely taking early down and goal line work. The difference is that Spiller is much more physically gifted than Ellington and Sean Payton throws much more to his RBs than Bruce Arians.

The difference is that Ellington won't have another back (with legit NFL useage and qualifications) in front of him on early downs as it currently sits.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Sorry for the diversion from Ellington. I only brought up Spiller as a suggested alternative pick at the same position at the same approximate draft spot. To me they are similar players in similar situations. They will both earn their money in the passing game and have larger backs likely taking early down and goal line work. The difference is that Spiller is much more physically gifted than Ellington and Sean Payton throws much more to his RBs than Bruce Arians.

The difference is that Ellington won't have another back (with legit NFL useage and qualifications) in front of him on early downs as it currently sits.

Neither will Tre Mason or Brandon Oliver, as it currently sits.Now obviously that comparison is laughably weak, but none of this is that simple. Ellington was awful last year, for whatever reasons, and the team invested fairly significantly in the RB position in the draft. I'm not a big fan of Johnson as a prospect, but I'm not willing to ignore the fact that the Cardinals actually DID use a fairly high pick on him, nor the fact that Ellington performed much better in a limited role as a rookie than he did in a featured role last year. As I said earlier, I'm OK with Ellington as a "just hit par" RB2 -- but we'll have to wait and see what happens to his ADP come summer -- last year it skyrocketed ridiculously. I have a feeling that the herd of redraft casuals are going to combine his 2014 workload and his 2013 efficiency and end up with "he's healthy now ZOMG stud!!!!!" and he ends up being drafted at or above his upside, just like last year. And that'll be a sucker bet, just like last year.

ETA: I'd also question whether Mark Ingram is significantly stiffer competition than a random incoming 3rd round rookie RB, but that's a conversation for another thread.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Neither will Tre Mason or Brandon Oliver, as it currently sits.

Late 3rd isn't "significantly". Its "marginally," at best. And they have no talent behind Andre. They had to add somebody.

/slowlybacksawayfromthecrazy

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Neither will Tre Mason or Brandon Oliver, as it currently sits.

Late 3rd isn't "significantly". Its "marginally," at best. And they have no talent behind Andre. They had to add somebody.

/slowlybacksawayfromthecrazy

You're typically better than that.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Notable RBs (since we are talking significant) drafted at #86 or later that aren't unknown commodities = sans recent rookies or current rookies...

Joseph Randle?

Zac Stacy?

Latavius Murray

Andre Ellington

Lamar Miller

Alfred Morris

Justin Forsett

Brandon Jacobs

Marion Barber

Darren Sproles

Michael Turner

That's 10 years of RB drafting (2004-2013).

That's 10 guys. Or just 1 per year.

Odds? There are like 15 (+/-) or so RBs drafted that late or later every year. 0.067% chance.

And just looking at that late 3rd (#86) through the end of the 4th (#128 +comp picks)... you have 3 out of 36 RB draft choices that found themselves on that list. 0.083%

Apologies if I missed a name or two. And now maybe you could add few from the drafted list to barely help those odds... but c'mon.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I hope that was a better effort to your liking CdL.

I also removed Zac Stacy and updated the %s.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

i don't like David Johnson. I won't be owning him anywhere. I don't think he's likely to emerge as a starter, or carry significant FF value. It's hugely likely that Ellington is better than Johnson in both NFL and FF terms.

But that's just a sidebar to my main point, which centers on Ellington himself, the role that he seems most suited for, and the design of Bruce Arians' offense. I think that Johnson can be pretty bad and still siphon enough touches away from Ellington to make him a risky bet at his current ADP, much less if he climbs up the board again like he did last year. Ellington is a damn good space player, but he's not a good fit for a pile of traditional inside power running touches. I expect him to roughly split the difference between 2013 and 2014 in terms of both per game workload and per touch efficiency, landing somewhere in the RB2 spectrum. And I think that's fairly reasonable.

 

[Slapdash]

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

It's not like Ellington had some long standing role with the team. Don't forget that he's just one year removed from being stuck behind the plodding Mendenhall. Arians can't be trusted to give Ellington his role back.

As for Spiller, the answer is quite simple: Sean Payton. Spiller has shown elite ability in the NFL and has come off two seasons of both injury and misuse, so his value is very depleted. But Sean Payton paid him to come to New Orleans despite being short on cash. Payton has found ways to make Pierre Thomas and Sproles into fantasy relevant players. We don't need to know Spiller's exact role to know that Payton can find a way to make him worth his current redraft price, possibly a lot more. We both know Robinson and Ingram are not threats to Spiller's role in the passing game which is where Spiller will at least justify his ADP. Any extra rushes he gets will just boost his value beyond his ADP. Spiller + turf + Payton is going to be gold, Jerry. Gold!

Is this the same Spiller who could not beat out old ### Fred Jackson in the passing game?

*sigh*

Don't be lazy. This is one of the laziest, dumbest arguments against Spiller. So dumb that I can explain it away in two words: pass blocking.

Spiller was not as good as Fred Jackson at pass blocking. Very few are. This was something Marrone valued. Spiller is actually a very, very good receiver. Probably one of the best in the NFL at his position. I've seen him high point the ball, adjust to the ball, catch with his hands. He's got it all when it comes to catching the ball. But he's not as good as Fred at pass blocking.

But if you bother to do research, you'd find that Sean Payton rarely uses his RBs to pass block, but he uses the hell out of them to catch the ball (if you didn't click the link, Sproles ranked 46th out of 46 qualifying players for % of snaps kept in to block at 4.3% - less than HALF the % of the 45th ranked player). I guess it kind of makes sense that he brought Spiller in? One could be lazy and smart and just assume that Payton brought Spiller in for a reason, like he did Sproles, but being lazy and assuming Spiller is not actually good in the passing game due to Fred Jackson getting more time than him under failed coach Doug Marrone is a viable alternative, I guess.

I mean, maybe Sean Payton is paying Spiller simply to be an injury backup for the oft-injured Ingram? Seems like a Sean Payton move. They are basically the same RB. With Robinson they've got three clones. And with the departure of Thomas and Cadet we can only assume the Saints are going to abandon passing to the RBs. They've averaged 199 targets to RBs in the last 4 years, but that'll probably come to a grinding halt. /s

And as CDL said, Fred Jackson was an excellent football player. Despite this, when Chan Gailey unleashed Spiller's potential, he easily made Fred Jackon an afterthought in 2012, averaging 6 ypc over 200+ carries and over 10 ypr on 43 receptions. You think Sean Payton is more like Marrone or Gailey? Smart money is on Gailey. Dumb money says, "but... but... he couldn't beat out Fred Jackson."

Sorry for the diversion from Ellington. I only brought up Spiller as a suggested alternative pick at the same position at the same approximate draft spot. To me they are similar players in similar situations. They will both earn their money in the passing game and have larger backs likely taking early down and goal line work. The difference is that Spiller is much more physically gifted than Ellington and Sean Payton throws much more to his RBs than Bruce Arians.

Again, I'm not the Spiller hater you are making me out to be. The Fred Jackson stuff and pass pro concerns are things that work for Spiller. Splitting time with a back that was more productive over less games than Fred Jackson works against him. As does his lackluster performances with the chances he was given.

Your average targets to running backs point is also misleading. Their targets to running backs fell 24% last year as Lombardi left to go to Detroit. The Saints only beat three playoff teams last year and they did it by leaning on Ingram. Just not bullish enough on the NO offense this year to think both will put up ~ top 20 numbers.

 

[Slapdash]

i don't like David Johnson. I won't be owning him anywhere. I don't think he's likely to emerge as a starter, or carry significant FF value. It's hugely likely that Ellington is better than Johnson in both NFL and FF terms.

But that's just a sidebar to my main point, which centers on Ellington himself, the role that he seems most suited for, and the design of Bruce Arians' offense. I think that Johnson can be pretty bad and still siphon enough touches away from Ellington to make him a risky bet at his current ADP, much less if he climbs up the board again like he did last year. Ellington is a damn good space player, but he's not a good fit for a pile of traditional inside power running touches. I expect him to roughly split the difference between 2013 and 2014 in terms of both per game workload and per touch efficiency, landing somewhere in the RB2 spectrum. And I think that's fairly reasonable.

FBGs current redraft rankings have him at 25. Sounds like you think that is a fair price.

 

[Touchdown There]

I like Ellington in redraft a lot this year, dynasty, not so much. If he is injured again he may never get another shot. I do believe that if he stays healthy he will get the bulk of the carries and be very valuable in PPR.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

It's not like Ellington had some long standing role with the team. Don't forget that he's just one year removed from being stuck behind the plodding Mendenhall. Arians can't be trusted to give Ellington his role back.

As for Spiller, the answer is quite simple: Sean Payton. Spiller has shown elite ability in the NFL and has come off two seasons of both injury and misuse, so his value is very depleted. But Sean Payton paid him to come to New Orleans despite being short on cash. Payton has found ways to make Pierre Thomas and Sproles into fantasy relevant players. We don't need to know Spiller's exact role to know that Payton can find a way to make him worth his current redraft price, possibly a lot more. We both know Robinson and Ingram are not threats to Spiller's role in the passing game which is where Spiller will at least justify his ADP. Any extra rushes he gets will just boost his value beyond his ADP. Spiller + turf + Payton is going to be gold, Jerry. Gold!

Is this the same Spiller who could not beat out old ### Fred Jackson in the passing game?

*sigh*

Don't be lazy. This is one of the laziest, dumbest arguments against Spiller. So dumb that I can explain it away in two words: pass blocking.

Spiller was not as good as Fred Jackson at pass blocking. Very few are. This was something Marrone valued. Spiller is actually a very, very good receiver. Probably one of the best in the NFL at his position. I've seen him high point the ball, adjust to the ball, catch with his hands. He's got it all when it comes to catching the ball. But he's not as good as Fred at pass blocking.

But if you bother to do research, you'd find that Sean Payton rarely uses his RBs to pass block, but he uses the hell out of them to catch the ball (if you didn't click the link, Sproles ranked 46th out of 46 qualifying players for % of snaps kept in to block at 4.3% - less than HALF the % of the 45th ranked player). I guess it kind of makes sense that he brought Spiller in? One could be lazy and smart and just assume that Payton brought Spiller in for a reason, like he did Sproles, but being lazy and assuming Spiller is not actually good in the passing game due to Fred Jackson getting more time than him under failed coach Doug Marrone is a viable alternative, I guess.

I mean, maybe Sean Payton is paying Spiller simply to be an injury backup for the oft-injured Ingram? Seems like a Sean Payton move. They are basically the same RB. With Robinson they've got three clones. And with the departure of Thomas and Cadet we can only assume the Saints are going to abandon passing to the RBs. They've averaged 199 targets to RBs in the last 4 years, but that'll probably come to a grinding halt. /s

And as CDL said, Fred Jackson was an excellent football player. Despite this, when Chan Gailey unleashed Spiller's potential, he easily made Fred Jackon an afterthought in 2012, averaging 6 ypc over 200+ carries and over 10 ypr on 43 receptions. You think Sean Payton is more like Marrone or Gailey? Smart money is on Gailey. Dumb money says, "but... but... he couldn't beat out Fred Jackson."

Sorry for the diversion from Ellington. I only brought up Spiller as a suggested alternative pick at the same position at the same approximate draft spot. To me they are similar players in similar situations. They will both earn their money in the passing game and have larger backs likely taking early down and goal line work. The difference is that Spiller is much more physically gifted than Ellington and Sean Payton throws much more to his RBs than Bruce Arians.

Again, I'm not the Spiller hater you are making me out to be. The Fred Jackson stuff and pass pro concerns are things that work for Spiller. Splitting time with a back that was more productive over less games than Fred Jackson works against him. As does his lackluster performances with the chances he was given.

Your average targets to running backs point is also misleading. Their targets to running backs fell 24% last year as Lombardi left to go to Detroit. The Saints only beat three playoff teams last year and they did it by leaning on Ingram. Just not bullish enough on the NO offense this year to think both will put up ~ top 20 numbers.

It wasn't just directed at you. Another guy jumped in with the exact same argument. Low hanging fruit very popular here.

Did the targets drop (to a still high 164) due to Lombardi's departure or due to Sproles' departure? Can't say for sure it was Lombardi. Regardless, I'd speculate 164 is way more than Arians has ever thrown to his RBs.

You think the Saints win a lot of games next year? If they are losing then Spiller will probably be in the game catching passes and running against nickel and dime defenses.

Spiller did well in Gailey's offense and even put up 4.6 ypc in his first year under Maronne's offense despite a high ankle sprain*. If you want to freak out about his 3.9 ypc on just 77 carries last year and call his career lackluster because of it, that's your prerogative. Seems short sighted to me, though.

*People are talking about giving Ellington a pass on his terrible YPC last year due to his injury, but we're going to hold Spiller's 4.6 ypc against him despite also dealing with injury? Aside from last year's very small sample size, Spiller has not been "lackluster" when given a chance. He's only had 3 seasons with over 100 carries and the injured 4.6 ypc is his worst mark to date.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

i don't like David Johnson. I won't be owning him anywhere. I don't think he's likely to emerge as a starter, or carry significant FF value. It's hugely likely that Ellington is better than Johnson in both NFL and FF terms.

But that's just a sidebar to my main point, which centers on Ellington himself, the role that he seems most suited for, and the design of Bruce Arians' offense. I think that Johnson can be pretty bad and still siphon enough touches away from Ellington to make him a risky bet at his current ADP, much less if he climbs up the board again like he did last year. Ellington is a damn good space player, but he's not a good fit for a pile of traditional inside power running touches. I expect him to roughly split the difference between 2013 and 2014 in terms of both per game workload and per touch efficiency, landing somewhere in the RB2 spectrum. And I think that's fairly reasonable.

FBGs current redraft rankings have him at 25. Sounds like you think that is a fair price.

I'd buy him at RB25 in PPR -- but I don't think that'll be possible come late summer. Remember last year?

 

[Slapdash]

i don't like David Johnson. I won't be owning him anywhere. I don't think he's likely to emerge as a starter, or carry significant FF value. It's hugely likely that Ellington is better than Johnson in both NFL and FF terms.

But that's just a sidebar to my main point, which centers on Ellington himself, the role that he seems most suited for, and the design of Bruce Arians' offense. I think that Johnson can be pretty bad and still siphon enough touches away from Ellington to make him a risky bet at his current ADP, much less if he climbs up the board again like he did last year. Ellington is a damn good space player, but he's not a good fit for a pile of traditional inside power running touches. I expect him to roughly split the difference between 2013 and 2014 in terms of both per game workload and per touch efficiency, landing somewhere in the RB2 spectrum. And I think that's fairly reasonable.

FBGs current redraft rankings have him at 25. Sounds like you think that is a fair price.

I'd buy him at RB25 in PPR -- but I don't think that'll be possible come late summer. Remember last year?

I guess it all depends on what assumptions you make I guess. Last year people were taking his 2013 efficiency and projecting it over a lot more carries and came back with really high upside. Even playing through injuries, he was on a path to top ten before he went out a few games. It is fair to assume he gets less carries, but I would also think that YPC gets closer to 4.

A lot of this comes down to how many games he plays and the split between the 2 backs. If it looks like Andre is going to get a big workload, the price will go higher.

I don't think 16 touches per game is out of this world for 2015 at the moment...but we'll see what happens in camp.

 

[Slapdash]

I don't disagree that there is some degree of risk with Ellington vs. the rookie but I wouldn't charaterize it as a significant threat. Just curious that you think that Spiller is a safer option. They have Robinson and Ingram and I don't know that anyone knows what Spillers role will be. He may have some upside but he may get watered down in that Saints backfield and end up with 13 touches/game. Robinson and Ingram are certainly more established and proven than the 7th RB off the board at the end of the 3rd round.

It's not like Ellington had some long standing role with the team. Don't forget that he's just one year removed from being stuck behind the plodding Mendenhall. Arians can't be trusted to give Ellington his role back.

As for Spiller, the answer is quite simple: Sean Payton. Spiller has shown elite ability in the NFL and has come off two seasons of both injury and misuse, so his value is very depleted. But Sean Payton paid him to come to New Orleans despite being short on cash. Payton has found ways to make Pierre Thomas and Sproles into fantasy relevant players. We don't need to know Spiller's exact role to know that Payton can find a way to make him worth his current redraft price, possibly a lot more. We both know Robinson and Ingram are not threats to Spiller's role in the passing game which is where Spiller will at least justify his ADP. Any extra rushes he gets will just boost his value beyond his ADP. Spiller + turf + Payton is going to be gold, Jerry. Gold!

Is this the same Spiller who could not beat out old ### Fred Jackson in the passing game?

*sigh*

Don't be lazy. This is one of the laziest, dumbest arguments against Spiller. So dumb that I can explain it away in two words: pass blocking.

Spiller was not as good as Fred Jackson at pass blocking. Very few are. This was something Marrone valued. Spiller is actually a very, very good receiver. Probably one of the best in the NFL at his position. I've seen him high point the ball, adjust to the ball, catch with his hands. He's got it all when it comes to catching the ball. But he's not as good as Fred at pass blocking.

But if you bother to do research, you'd find that Sean Payton rarely uses his RBs to pass block, but he uses the hell out of them to catch the ball (if you didn't click the link, Sproles ranked 46th out of 46 qualifying players for % of snaps kept in to block at 4.3% - less than HALF the % of the 45th ranked player). I guess it kind of makes sense that he brought Spiller in? One could be lazy and smart and just assume that Payton brought Spiller in for a reason, like he did Sproles, but being lazy and assuming Spiller is not actually good in the passing game due to Fred Jackson getting more time than him under failed coach Doug Marrone is a viable alternative, I guess.

I mean, maybe Sean Payton is paying Spiller simply to be an injury backup for the oft-injured Ingram? Seems like a Sean Payton move. They are basically the same RB. With Robinson they've got three clones. And with the departure of Thomas and Cadet we can only assume the Saints are going to abandon passing to the RBs. They've averaged 199 targets to RBs in the last 4 years, but that'll probably come to a grinding halt. /s

And as CDL said, Fred Jackson was an excellent football player. Despite this, when Chan Gailey unleashed Spiller's potential, he easily made Fred Jackon an afterthought in 2012, averaging 6 ypc over 200+ carries and over 10 ypr on 43 receptions. You think Sean Payton is more like Marrone or Gailey? Smart money is on Gailey. Dumb money says, "but... but... he couldn't beat out Fred Jackson."

Sorry for the diversion from Ellington. I only brought up Spiller as a suggested alternative pick at the same position at the same approximate draft spot. To me they are similar players in similar situations. They will both earn their money in the passing game and have larger backs likely taking early down and goal line work. The difference is that Spiller is much more physically gifted than Ellington and Sean Payton throws much more to his RBs than Bruce Arians.

Again, I'm not the Spiller hater you are making me out to be. The Fred Jackson stuff and pass pro concerns are things that work for Spiller. Splitting time with a back that was more productive over less games than Fred Jackson works against him. As does his lackluster performances with the chances he was given.

Your average targets to running backs point is also misleading. Their targets to running backs fell 24% last year as Lombardi left to go to Detroit. The Saints only beat three playoff teams last year and they did it by leaning on Ingram. Just not bullish enough on the NO offense this year to think both will put up ~ top 20 numbers.

It wasn't just directed at you. Another guy jumped in with the exact same argument. Low hanging fruit very popular here.

Did the targets drop (to a still high 164) due to Lombardi's departure or due to Sproles' departure? Can't say for sure it was Lombardi. Regardless, I'd speculate 164 is way more than Arians has ever thrown to his RBs.

You think the Saints win a lot of games next year? If they are losing then Spiller will probably be in the game catching passes and running against nickel and dime defenses.

Spiller did well in Gailey's offense and even put up 4.6 ypc in his first year under Maronne's offense despite a high ankle sprain*. If you want to freak out about his 3.9 ypc on just 77 carries last year and call his career lackluster because of it, that's your prerogative. Seems short sighted to me, though.

*People are talking about giving Ellington a pass on his terrible YPC last year due to his injury, but we're going to hold Spiller's 4.6 ypc against him despite also dealing with injury? Aside from last year's very small sample size, Spiller has not been "lackluster" when given a chance. He's only had 3 seasons with over 100 carries and the injured 4.6 ypc is his worst mark to date.

Is it really super relevant how much Arians throws to RBs though? Nobody is expecting Andre to be primarily a receiving back like they are for Spiller.

 

[Sabertooth]

If Johnson is among the 90th percentile of third round backs, he MIGHT significantly hurt Ellington.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

If Johnson is among the 90th percentile of third round backs, he MIGHT significantly hurt Ellington.

What percentile of RBs was Mendenhall in 2013?

 

[Slapdash]

If Johnson is among the 90th percentile of third round backs, he MIGHT significantly hurt Ellington.

What percentile of RBs was Mendenhall in 2013?

Veteran loyalty was a big factor there though.

The real question is how much better Johnson plays compared to Taylor last year. I think it is a safe bet he does a good deal better, probably with a little more of the catch share.

I'll lay my early projections out there as: 12 carries and 4 catches per game. Carries per game is where most of the drop happens.

 

[Sabertooth]

If Johnson is among the 90th percentile of third round backs, he MIGHT significantly hurt Ellington.

What percentile of RBs was Mendenhall in 2013?

Whatever dude. All I am saying is we don't even know if Johnson can compete at this level. Most third rounders never do anything. If he can compete, then Ellington owners might have a problem. But that's a big if.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

If Johnson is among the 90th percentile of third round backs, he MIGHT significantly hurt Ellington.

What percentile of RBs was Mendenhall in 2013?

Whatever dude. All I am saying is we don't even know if Johnson can compete at this level. Most third rounders never do anything. If he can compete, then Ellington owners might have a problem. But that's a big if.

We don't know if Ellington can be an effective feature back either. His track record on that front is less than Johnson's. I can't understand how a rookie's question marks are any different than a 3rd year guy who has never carried the load for an NFL season and looked good doing it.

He has one good part time year and one bad full time year. He split carries in college. This is not a rookie vs an established vet with a history of success as a lead back. This is a 3rd round rookie vs a 6th round 3rd year guy with no history of success as a lead back.

 

[Sabertooth]

You are right.

 

[JayJay328]

Here is the thing. First you are making excuses by claiming injury as to why he struggled.

I'm not a huge Ellington fan, but to be fair it seems people's memories are very short. There were serious questions as to whether Ellington would start the season on the PUP or even miss the entire year when he hurt his foot late in training camp. It was a serious injury whether one wants to admit it or not, and it would seem pretty logical that a serious foot injury would slow a RB like Ellington down. The rest of the RBs rostered by Arizona at the time were not legitimate options so the team had no choice but to push Ellington out there. As some one that doesn't see Johnson as a great prospect (I think he's soft), I'd still avoid this situation completely due to it's murkiness (unless either back came very cheaply which I doubt), but I don't think the injury angle is really an "excuse", it's a legitimate possible explanation.

What makes you think he's soft? He had 1007 touches in college.

Admittedly there's only two game cut ups out there so it's a small sample size, but I don't think he attacks defenders and looks to avoid contact (despite his size). At times he actually looks like he pulled back to brace for the hit instead of falling forward and gaining those extra yards or two. It may not be a huge deal, but it's just my opinion on him based on the info that I have. He's in a good landing spot at least and he does fit the Arians offense.

Soft? Seriously? You and I have VERY different definitions of soft. Soft is guys like CJ Spiller who sit games due to a thigh bruise. Soft is guys who miss games with minor ailments as far as NFL RBs go. Not players who play with torn ligaments. You want to talk about his running style? Cool, he is a shifty back, not a bruiser or pound you looking for contact type of runner. That doesn't make him soft.

As for all this discussion on Johnson, listen to the coach. He is not a liar or unreliable as some may suggest when it comes to how players will be used. He said preseason last year that Ellington would be a "bellcow back", and he was. The year before he was mostly forth coming in the same way. This year he has already stated Ellington will be used in the same role. I'd expect if Johnson is capable he will have a role but I'll bet Ellington will lead this team in RB touches by quite a bit, say 60 - 65%. In todays NFL that's significant. RB2 (13-18 range) with upside.

 

[Eminence]

I think David Johnson will be the starter by the end of the season. He's got size and talent. Ellington is a phenomenal talent but you want a guy who can muscle it up the guy.

Not that that's Johnson's game per say but he can do it much better than Ellington.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Toe/ankle surgeries @ Clem.

Concussion in 2013 camp. Missed game w/knee inj. Battled late-season thigh inj

Andre Ellington's injury is to his peroneus longus. It's a muscle that helps flex the ankle and Ellington has a little tear in it,

Andre Ellington has been diagnosed with sore ribs, and avoided structural damage.
Ellington briefly departed Sunday's win over the Raiders, but played through the injury

Andre Ellington has been diagnosed with a hip pointer.

Bruce Arians said Andre Ellington was "95 percent recovered" from his foot injury.
Ellington is also in the final stages of his recovery from sports-hernia surgery

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

Here is the thing. First you are making excuses by claiming injury as to why he struggled.

I'm not a huge Ellington fan, but to be fair it seems people's memories are very short. There were serious questions as to whether Ellington would start the season on the PUP or even miss the entire year when he hurt his foot late in training camp. It was a serious injury whether one wants to admit it or not, and it would seem pretty logical that a serious foot injury would slow a RB like Ellington down. The rest of the RBs rostered by Arizona at the time were not legitimate options so the team had no choice but to push Ellington out there. As some one that doesn't see Johnson as a great prospect (I think he's soft), I'd still avoid this situation completely due to it's murkiness (unless either back came very cheaply which I doubt), but I don't think the injury angle is really an "excuse", it's a legitimate possible explanation.

What makes you think he's soft? He had 1007 touches in college.

Admittedly there's only two game cut ups out there so it's a small sample size, but I don't think he attacks defenders and looks to avoid contact (despite his size). At times he actually looks like he pulled back to brace for the hit instead of falling forward and gaining those extra yards or two. It may not be a huge deal, but it's just my opinion on him based on the info that I have. He's in a good landing spot at least and he does fit the Arians offense.

Soft? Seriously? You and I have VERY different definitions of soft. Soft is guys like CJ Spiller who sit games due to a thigh bruise. Soft is guys who miss games with minor ailments as far as NFL RBs go. Not players who play with torn ligaments. You want to talk about his running style? Cool, he is a shifty back, not a bruiser or pound you looking for contact type of runner. That doesn't make him soft.

As for all this discussion on Johnson, listen to the coach. He is not a liar or unreliable as some may suggest when it comes to how players will be used. He said preseason last year that Ellington would be a "bellcow back", and he was. The year before he was mostly forth coming in the same way. This year he has already stated Ellington will be used in the same role. I'd expect if Johnson is capable he will have a role but I'll bet Ellington will lead this team in RB touches by quite a bit, say 60 - 65%. In todays NFL that's significant. RB2 (13-18 range) with upside.

I'm assuming you are referring to the interview where the coach and GM were talking about Johnson post draft, but referred to Ellington briefly. If you consider that, in the context of the entire interview, as a ringing endorsement for Ellington, I would beg to differ. Watch the whole interview. Don't just cherry pick the things you want to hear.

I'm not saying that Ellington is garbage or anything, but from a dynasty perspective you just can't hook your wagon to a RB who is the lightest guy on the field with an extensive history of injuries and expect long-term production.

As much as I hate Rotoworld since they cherry pick things they want to hear when the want to hear them, they agreed with me at the end of March. I'm sure they have changed their mind by now because this will undermine their rankings, but this is what they said on March 25:

Coach Bruce Arians said the Cardinals would "like to have a bigger back."
The Cardinals asked Andre Ellington to be their workhorse last season, a role his 199-pound frame was ill-equipped to handle. His yards per carry dropped off a cliff with a heavier workload, which strongly suggests Ellington is more suited for a change of pace role.

 

[JayJay328]

Here is the thing. First you are making excuses by claiming injury as to why he struggled.

I'm not a huge Ellington fan, but to be fair it seems people's memories are very short. There were serious questions as to whether Ellington would start the season on the PUP or even miss the entire year when he hurt his foot late in training camp. It was a serious injury whether one wants to admit it or not, and it would seem pretty logical that a serious foot injury would slow a RB like Ellington down. The rest of the RBs rostered by Arizona at the time were not legitimate options so the team had no choice but to push Ellington out there. As some one that doesn't see Johnson as a great prospect (I think he's soft), I'd still avoid this situation completely due to it's murkiness (unless either back came very cheaply which I doubt), but I don't think the injury angle is really an "excuse", it's a legitimate possible explanation.

What makes you think he's soft? He had 1007 touches in college.

Admittedly there's only two game cut ups out there so it's a small sample size, but I don't think he attacks defenders and looks to avoid contact (despite his size). At times he actually looks like he pulled back to brace for the hit instead of falling forward and gaining those extra yards or two. It may not be a huge deal, but it's just my opinion on him based on the info that I have. He's in a good landing spot at least and he does fit the Arians offense.

Soft? Seriously? You and I have VERY different definitions of soft. Soft is guys like CJ Spiller who sit games due to a thigh bruise. Soft is guys who miss games with minor ailments as far as NFL RBs go. Not players who play with torn ligaments. You want to talk about his running style? Cool, he is a shifty back, not a bruiser or pound you looking for contact type of runner. That doesn't make him soft.

As for all this discussion on Johnson, listen to the coach. He is not a liar or unreliable as some may suggest when it comes to how players will be used. He said preseason last year that Ellington would be a "bellcow back", and he was. The year before he was mostly forth coming in the same way. This year he has already stated Ellington will be used in the same role. I'd expect if Johnson is capable he will have a role but I'll bet Ellington will lead this team in RB touches by quite a bit, say 60 - 65%. In todays NFL that's significant. RB2 (13-18 range) with upside.

I'm assuming you are referring to the interview where the coach and GM were talking about Johnson post draft, but referred to Ellington briefly. If you consider that, in the context of the entire interview, as a ringing endorsement for Ellington, I would beg to differ. Watch the whole interview. Don't just cherry pick the things you want to hear.

I'm not saying that Ellington is garbage or anything, but from a dynasty perspective you just can't hook your wagon to a RB who is the lightest guy on the field with an extensive history of injuries and expect long-term production.

As much as I hate Rotoworld since they cherry pick things they want to hear when the want to hear them, they agreed with me at the end of March. I'm sure they have changed their mind by now because this will undermine their rankings, but this is what they said on March 25:

Coach Bruce Arians said the Cardinals would "like to have a bigger back."
The Cardinals asked Andre Ellington to be their workhorse last season, a role his 199-pound frame was ill-equipped to handle. His yards per carry dropped off a cliff with a heavier workload, which strongly suggests Ellington is more suited for a change of pace role.

I'm referring to anything Arians has said about Ellington in the off season. Johnson will have a role most likely but the Cards were going to add a RB because teams need multiple players at that position no matter who the starter is. Ellington will have to either lose the job or Johnson will have to steal it by outperforming him. None of which makes Ellington "soft". Injury prone? Maybe, but I stopped placing that label on guys after Fred Taylor. Injuries happen and there is no way to predict them.