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Here is where your logic is faulty. A top WR is going to produce whereas the top 5 running backs are a crap shot. If you got stuck taking Forte at 3 last year then your season was sunk. Its very few and far between that a top WR has a down year unless it was injury related. Although it happens to Rb's every year. I can guarantee you that on of the top 4 will not be in the final top 20 rankings of running backs. I doubt you can say that about the WR.
I would have taken AP and Steve Smith myself.
I don't agree.Give me AJ and Grant in any league over Turner and Jennings......especially in a PPR league.Deuce said:
Wow......I disagree.You might want to look at past history. Last two years.....averaged 108 catches, over 1500 yards. Both years over 100 catchesIn 3 of the last 4 years that AJ has played all 16 games....he has had 100+ receptions. Sure he isn't a big TD producer, but he did have 8 TDs in 9 games in 2007.....AJ is capable of scoring 12-14 TDs. With Daniels not 100%, it's possible that AJ could get more looks near the goalline. If everything goes well, AJ could have 120+ catches.......the guy is going to get 165+ targets. With his talent and that many targets....100+ receptions is almost a given.He's a lock for 100/1400/9, and I have him scoring 42 more points that Moss, my #2 WR on my board. My projections areAJ 108/1550/10Moss 82/1225/13Moss would need one of his insane TD years to match AJ, IMO. Could he do it? Absolutely. But I don't see Brady throwing more that 32 TDs this year, and Moss getting 15-16 of those is a lot to ask for. He scored 23 when Brady threw 50, which is 46% of Brady's TDs......since I think Brady will get about 29 TDs, 13 seems reasonble for Moss.AJ is worth the 5th overall pick and later.
COUNT YOUR LUCKY STARS sjaX fell that far... thats pretty rediculous.you had one of those days I guess
In our 16 team PPR, AJ and Grant combine for a projected 521 points, Turner and Jennings combine for 476. Not to mention, Jennings was gone before our second round pick and Steve Smith Car was the best avail WR, which Turner and Steve Smith combine for only 450 points.
Curious, would you reach for him at #3 if no one wants to move up in your draft?
This is your problem. You do realize that your projection for A. Johnson's TDs would be a career high and a mark he's never before reached. Your projection for Moss' TDs would be a feet he's matched or surpassed 6 times before. You are projecting the high end for one player and the average for another.
I probably would pick Ray Rice at #3 but if he was there at 4 I wouldnt have a problem taking him. I certainly wouldnt laugh at anyone who would take Johnson in the top5. He offers the least risk of anyone in the first round. You could make an argument against the top 5 running backs if you tried. The only thing you can say about AJ is that he has never caught more than 9 td's. I will take my chances on that.the spanker said:
RBBC makes the STUD RB more valuable, not less. Because so many guys score decently, the very few who score really high are more valuable.
Sure I do.Not sure why you have an issue with it.....I am projecting one more TD for AJ than his best......I think that HOU is going to score more TDs this year than in previous years, so I feel AJ is going to get more opportunities to score.
No. I would take CJ, ADP, Rice and MJD over AJ. These 4 RBs are heads and shoulders better than the rest. My projections show a good size dropoff to to Gore and SJackson, my #5 and #6 RBs on my board.I would take AJ over Gore, except in a smaller league when I can be certain that I can get a top 6 WR in round 2.the spanker said:
Thanks, is that your RB order? CJ, ADP, Rice then MJD in PPR?
CJ, ADP, MJD, Rice
OK just checking that's my order too
RE: 6 TD AVG PER PAST 7 SEASONS: AJ has increased his TD production every year over the past 6-7 years. As Schaub has been developing AJ's #'s have increased. Im sure if he had Schaub froim the beginning instead of Carr, Rosenfells.. in his prior years we wouldnt even be talking about this right now. Yes I agree they like to run the ball in the redzone as most teams would like to but their RB's have a tendancy to put the ball on the ground which takes away from his RZ opportunities. I really think that this year with Daniels not 100%, and Jacoby hopefully moving into the #2 spot, AJ will have more and better opportunities and while Id bet his yds drop, I think the finally breaks 10TD's which along with his receptions he'll be the #1WR at season end-again. Id prefer to use the last 3 years as a snap shot of his TD production; he's avg'd 8+..Where Johnson is being drafted is usually after Gore and even before. only ahead of SJax, Turner and a couple other WR'S possibly 1 QB. There's no way to justify passing on him for Moss, or any other WR. Calvin has yet to prove what AJ has done over the past few years. Per this thread asking about 6 spot then were talking about Gore being gone..noone avail here is a lock to justify this high of a pick oither than AJ. Im starting to wonder if this is a ploy for you at #7 to convince a leaguemate/FBG forum follower to let AJ fall to you..
That's all good if you've got a top 4 pick in the draft. Otherwise, no back is a sure thing.
ok so after those 4 are gone then what? Again this is a thread re: 6 spot in a PPR.. You have to build a team so the teams with the top 4 RBs usually pair them with a middle RB and a couple of 2nd tier WR's (Jennings, Boldin, Ocho, Welker, Desean) all pretty good but all 70-85 reception guys, and all projected to score approx 8TD's*Its a great year to consider WR/WR and then in the 3rd if Brady Romo are there grab 1 and follow RB/RB in 4-5.. Id love AJ, Marshall, Brady, and 2 of the following: Best, Ronnie, Addai, Spiller. **I know Ill have a ton of people saying these guys will be gone but I guarantee you most leagues have as many as 5-6 "sharks" but more likely 3-5 so these guys will fall in a majority of your drafts* Already 2 drafts down and have seen this to be true: avoid the WR/TE/QB runs in rounds 4-5 and stock up on these RB's it's possible to land 3.
everyone thinks their team is the best because we place higher value on those we draft..
Yikes. Using his whole career to justify say 6-7 TDs? Come on, you know that HOU's situation is much different now than it was 7 years ago. You're comparing apples to oranges. HOU is likely going to light up the scoreboard this year. If Schaub throws for 30-32 TDs this year (which is definitely possible), don't you think AJ will get at least 10 of those?
I think you're cherry picking the 10 yardline and in. Look at the redzone. AJ got 25 tagets. He scored 7 of the 21 HOU TD passes within the 20 yardline. Which means that he scored 5 of the 8 TD passes between the 10 and the 20. AJ is a factor in the redzone. If you look at the 5 yardline and in, AJ got 3 targets and Owen Daniels/Jon Dressen combined had 4. So you're going to say that 1 target makes HOU prefer the TEs in that area? HOU does tend to spread the ball around inside the 10.....I will give you that. But in comparing peers, only Randy Moss clearly gets the lion's share of targets inside the 10, and he may be the best goalline WR in NFL history. For Wayne, he got 15 targets, but IND threw the ball 47 times inside the 10, so Wayne got about 32% of those targets, vs 24% of HOU's inside 10 targets for Johnson. So Wayne got more targets generally because IND had more opportunities. HOU offense is only getting better, so I can envision that HOU will pass more inside the 10 because HOU will be there more often.......or being more efficient once they get inside the redzone. Therefore, I can see AJ getting the double digit targets inside the 10.Also look at the final production of those targets inside the 10.....Moss had 13 and scored 5 TDs, Wayne had 15 and scored 5 TDs....so it's a 3 TD difference. But extend to the redzone. AJ had 25 targets and 7 TDs, Wayne had 21 targets and 7 TDs, and Moss had 23 targets and 8 TDs........wow, each had similar stats. So you're clearly cherry picking here. First 1/2 of the year - AJ had 80 targets, 2nd half he had 91.....not a huge difference when Daniels left. Also note that HOU played the NYJ and Revis in Week 1 and OAK in Week 4 which limited AJ's targets (he had 7 and 8 in those games), and he left with an injury against SF in week 7. So I disagree that Daniels had that much of an impact. AJ gets his targets.
You can make an argument that any player's success is tied to their QB. What would Moss do if Brady went down? We saw that.....he was a bust. What about Ray Rice's value if Joe Flacco went down? Takes a hit as well. RBs value is tied to their OL health, as well as the health of other skill positions. You think Frank Gore will have similar stats if Vernon Davis went down? Probably.Would you take a QB with the 6th overall pick in a start 1QB league? IMO, that's a mistake.Bottom line is AJ is worth a first round pick.
Not my rating...3 other guys use the DD and all their programs said it...now let's get off derailing the thread in attempts to be a smart###The biggest reason to take Johnson is that he gets a hell of a lot of targets...which mean a lot of catches. PPR, he's easily the best. Non-ppr, still the best, but slightly less so IMO. In either one, I think Moss has higher upside. If you want to shoot for the moon, take Moss...if you want a surer thing, I would take Andre, who also has upside even beyond his draft position if he scores some TDs.
Great post. I should have provided the link to that paragraph...it's not my writing. I would do so. I like your arguments though. Very well said.
When Brady went down, didn't Moss go for close to 1100 yards and 10+ TDs? I thought he finished as a top 10 WR even without Brady...Do you consider that to be a bust? Anytime I draft a guy and he ends up top 10, it's tough to call him a bust. Disappointing a bit perhaps, but bust?And Ray Rice's value goes up if Flacco goes down. A QB with a lesser arm and/or less pocket presence both lead to more checkdown passes than Flacco would otherwise throw (esp now that he has Boldin). Flacco going down means more rushes and more checkdowns, both great for RR.
We're playing semantics here......Moss in 2008 was a 1st round pick. Sure, he was disappointing. From what I remember, he was projected for 90-1450-16, and he ended up 69-1008-11. In a PPR league, that's about 100 points less than projected. Sure he finished WR10, but if you're off a projection by 100 points.....that's a bust. Call it what you want.....Moss didn't come remotely close to his projected numbers.Regarding Rice.....I guess that can be true. But if your top QB went down, I would assume a defense wouldn't respect the vertical pass as much and focus more on Rice. Sure they may run more, but the YPC would probably drop a lot since you would see 8 in the box constantly. I can't see the offense being as efficient without Flacco, so Rice's TDs would go down. So receptions might increase but YPC, YPR and TDs go down......more likely Rice's value takes a hit, but not to the point where he isn't a fantasy starter.
Thanks.....glad it wasn't you writing it......FFToday's argument was extremely weak IMO.
