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Andrew Luck (1 Viewer)

Just short of 4k yards, 25 touchdowns with 22 picks. The Colts are going to be behind a lot, and they are going to let him learn through his struggles just like Manning did his rookie year.

 
My gut instinct is telling me that Luck will have a surprisingly good rookie campaign. I'm going on the high side for my projections and will say 3500 yards plus another 300 + in rushing yards with 25 passing td's and another 2 rushing.

 
A lot of those middle 20's TD predictions could have good odds of coming true given the state of their offense at the moment. Yes, as well they should be behind in games thus giving Luck more throwing opportunities and be thrown in the middle of the fire like was said about Manning. He should come out of this year a wiser and better QB but for him to succeed the Colts are going to have to surround him with decent weapons. Won't get the job done with what they have now.

 
'ponchsox said:
'pantherclub said:
If you have to resort to starting Luck this year then your season has completely come off the rails.
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Even in a 2 QB 16 team league?
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Every QB has value in a league that size. It all depends on league size and scoring. I've seen Luck projected as QB 13-22 by FBG staffers. Technically he could be starter in a 16 team start 1 QB. The offense is going to be very similar to what he used at Stanford so there is going to be a lot of familiarity. Personally, I think they will be playing from behind a lot and will see some garbage numbers that will push him around 12-14. I think he is a great QBBC play in redraft paired with a guy like Cutler. Just my :2cents:
 
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he seems like he gets it already so i would expect his int's to be low, but at the expense of conservative decisions. decent % but low ypa

maybe similar to matt ryans rookie year with more rushing yards so

3600, 17, 10 and 350, 4

4 rushing td's? they dont have a good redzone rb or wr so maybe he sneaks+bootlegs a few in. has the size and speed to do it.

 
'ponchsox said:
'Sweet Love said:
'Banemorth said:
4200 Yards29 TD's18 Picks
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So you expect him to have the best Rookie QB passing year ever...by a lot???
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Peyton's rookie season:3739 Yards26 TDs 28 INTsCam's rookie season (best in a long time by a rookie):4051 Yards21 TDs passing 14 rushing17 INTsI can see him coming close to Cam's passing numbers but 29 TDs would be epic.
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Luck is a very special talent. I understand my projection is going to be at the highest end of the spectrum but he has really solid veteran talent in Wayne and I really like Collie this year. Allen and Fleener should be great mismatches too. I am hearing great things about Vick Ballard this off-season and I don't think Brown/Carter are complete wastes. Overall it's a new and fresh offense that I think might catch a lot of teams off-guard. Luck is an amazing pocket passer and way more athletic than a lot of people give him credit for.
 
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'ponchsox said:
I can see him coming close to Cam's passing numbers but 29 TDs would be epic.
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Maybe not, in today's NFL. Defensive backs aren't allowed to play anymore. If they do, it's a PI flag.Realistically, I don't think their D will be good enough to get them the ball back or keep opposing offenses off the field. I'm all on board the Luck train in dynasty, but tempering expectations for now.
 
I know it's only the 1st preseason game against the Rams, but does anyone want to change their predictions?

 
I find it odd that not a single person in here has projected his attempts. That's the most important number in Luck's projection, IMO. The rest is just filler.

 
For anyone thinking it's crazy to project Luck's stats that high, all i can say is "why not?" He's the best prospect ever playing on a fast rack indoors with some weapons in a passer friendly league against some bad defenses. were not talking blaine gabbert here. i would say its better than a 50/50 chance he's a serviceable qb1, based on the fact he'll probably scramble for 3-6 tds.

 
Here are the projections from the FBG interactive magazine today:

Dodds 3,509 yards 19 TDs 17 INTs

Henry 3,860 yards 21 TDs 15 INTs

Tremblay 3,423 yards 14 TDs 17 INTs WTF?? Really???

Wood 3,425 yards 21 TDs 25 INTs

 
'ponchsox said:
Here are the projections from the FBG interactive magazine today:Dodds 3,509 yards 19 TDs 17 INTsHenry 3,860 yards 21 TDs 15 INTsTremblay 3,423 yards 14 TDs 17 INTs WTF?? Really???Wood 3,425 yards 21 TDs 25 INTs
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Projections are just a shot in the dark. They usually end up a minor adjustment from last year, a safe average of what other people do in a similar situation (ie in their first year given the surrounding cast), or a fudge factor that assumes that a guy will average the output with other people instead of making the claim he'll win the job outright or lose it entirely (e.g. RBBC).
 
'Chase Stuart said:
I find it odd that not a single person in here has projected his attempts. That's the most important number in Luck's projection, IMO. The rest is just filler.
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My original projection was;525 attempts, 299 completions, 3296 yds, 18 TDs and 16 Ints, with an average per attempt of 6.3 and a 57% completion rate.I rounded down to just 3300 and left out the other stuff I didn't think anyone cared about.I'm jumping further on the train after seeing Luck's debute however and adjusting up to;545 attempts, 321 completions, 3435 yds, 21 TDs, 15 Ints, with an average per attempt of 6.3 and a 59% completion rate.I think Indy will throw more than I originally expected. As a team they Passed 534 times last year. My projection assumes Luck gets about 98% of the snaps.
 
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'mastergg said:
For anyone thinking it's crazy to project Luck's stats that high, all i can say is "why not?" He's the best prospect ever playing on a fast rack indoors with some weapons in a passer friendly league against some bad defenses. were not talking blaine gabbert here. i would say its better than a 50/50 chance he's a serviceable qb1, based on the fact he'll probably scramble for 3-6 tds.
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Why not? Because he plays for worst team in the league that's absolutely devoid of weapons on offense. Thats why.
 
'jurb26 said:
'Chase Stuart said:
I find it odd that not a single person in here has projected his attempts. That's the most important number in Luck's projection, IMO. The rest is just filler.
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My original projection was;525 attempts, 299 completions, 3296 yds, 18 TDs and 16 Ints, with an average per attempt of 6.3 and a 57% completion rate.I rounded down to just 3300 and left out the other stuff I didn't think anyone cared about.I'm jumping further on the train after seeing Luck's debute however and adjusting up to;545 attempts, 321 completions, 3435 yds, 21 TDs, 15 Ints, with an average per attempt of 6.3 and a 59% completion rate.I think Indy will throw more than I originally expected. As a team they Passed 534 times last year. My projection assumes Luck gets about 98% of the snaps.
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I'm not in favor of adjusting projections based on pre-season games.As for the attempts question, I'm not sure where I fall on this. Obviously we don't expect Indy to be very good, and they could end up like Washington or Tampa last year with 590 attempts. Pagano seems more run-heavy than prior Indy coaches, but I don't know if he will be able to implement that in 2012. I could see the Colts with anywhere from 520 to 620 attempts, and I can't get much of a handle on it. I think 545 is a solid projection, though, and is one that I'm willing to work with.Yards per attempt? I think we'll see him at 6.8. Wayne/Collie/Fleener is a fine set of targets, and the average last year was 7.2. I don't expect the league to trend down or for Luck to be more than slightly below average.At 545 attempts, 3700 yards is the expectation. TDs/INTs are fluky, but I think 20 TDs with 3 rushing TDs is a good guess there. And maybe 16 INTs.
 
I think the #1 factor will be how the OL performs in pass protection; I have no insight on them, so I won't try to act like I know.

Let's they the OL and running game is middle of the road.

512 Attempts

318 Completions

3700 Yards

24 TDs

15 Ints

40 Attempts

175 Yards

1 TD

 
I'm in the camp that says we might see the greatest rookie passing season of all time. Luck is the closest thing to a guarantee that I can remember in my 20 years of playing FF and I expect his ypa to be no worse than average.

Here's my predictions for what should be an historic rookie season:

580 attempts

4200 yards

28 passing TDs

4 rushing TDs

19 ints

R.O.Y

 
'Hang 10 said:
'mastergg said:
For anyone thinking it's crazy to project Luck's stats that high, all i can say is "why not?" He's the best prospect ever playing on a fast rack indoors with some weapons in a passer friendly league against some bad defenses. were not talking blaine gabbert here. i would say its better than a 50/50 chance he's a serviceable qb1, based on the fact he'll probably scramble for 3-6 tds.
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Why not? Because he plays for worst team in the league that's absolutely devoid of weapons on offense. Thats why.
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Solid young TEs and Reggie Wayne. Donald Brown looked good in limited action. 4k yards is his floor IMO.
 
'ens189 said:
'Hang 10 said:
'mastergg said:
For anyone thinking it's crazy to project Luck's stats that high, all i can say is "why not?" He's the best prospect ever playing on a fast rack indoors with some weapons in a passer friendly league against some bad defenses. were not talking blaine gabbert here. i would say its better than a 50/50 chance he's a serviceable qb1, based on the fact he'll probably scramble for 3-6 tds.
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Why not? Because he plays for worst team in the league that's absolutely devoid of weapons on offense. Thats why.
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Solid young TEs and Reggie Wayne. Donald Brown looked good in limited action. 4k yards is his floor IMO.
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Not to mention Austin Collie who was putting up monster stats with Peyton Manning a couple seasons ago before suffering a couple of concussions.My projection after today's performance:4100 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 21 interceptions, 4 rushing touchdowns, 250 rushing yards
 
Can. Not. Wait. to see him on the road against Pittsburgh's defense tonight (8:00, NBC).

Now we'll see what's up. I hope LeBeau unleashes the hounds. :popcorn:

 
3750

26 TD

22Int

3 RTD

I see him as very nice QB 2, especially after 2nd half, once he gets used to speed of game and chemistry with receivers. So, even though projecting full yr, value proposition is 2nd half, where TD/int % is more 3-1, as opposed to 1-1 or worse in 1st half.

 
Luck should not creep up on anyone this year. He is not your ordinary rookie QB. He already should be considered a high end QB2 with QB1 upside.

There are so many average fantasy QB's in the league like Cassel, Skelton/Kobb, Smith, Dalton, Ponder Palmer etc. I don't know how anyone wouldn't salivate at the upside of a guy like Luck. There will be many fantasy guys that reap the benefits Luck will offer in terms of value even though he is a rookie QB. After you glance through the QB 1 guys (top 10 to 12 QB's) I don't know how he is not at the top of the next tier.

People keep on saying that there are no weapons on Indy offense. I am a firm believer that the good QB's make the weapons much more than the other way around. In saying that, every qb would love to have a Calvin Johnson, Fitz, or Andre to throw to, but let's not act as though Luck will be throwing to arena league guys. Wayne, Collie, Fleener, Allen, are a good starting point for any rookie QB.

Last year the great Dan Orlovsky started the last 5 games in Indy throwing to many of the same weapons Luck will have. He was able to put up some good numbers in 3 of those 5 games. He had a 353 yard 2 td game in wk 13, a 244 yard 1 td game in wk 15, and a 264 yard 1 td game in wk 16. The other two games were duds, but remember Orlovsky is a back up level NFL qb.

Luck is going to make some mistakes, but he has been calling his own plays, running audibles and lining his guys up for quite some time. He is a smart dude. He has an architectural design major degree from Stanford!!! I don't know if many understand how hard it is to get a degree from Stanford, let alone being a high profile football player which takes up a huge chunk of time. The guy can read a defence, he can run a no huddle offense, he will have a firm grasp of his playbook, and he will be able to read what other teams are throwing at him. It's not as if teams will find many flaws in his game and exploit those flaws like you might be able to do with other young QB's.

Last year the QB who finished at the bottom of the QB 1's in total points in 12th spot in my main dynasty start 2 qb league was Ryan Fitzpatrick. His stats were as follows....

-353 of 569 for 62%

-3832 passing yards

-24 TDs to 23 ints

-56 rush attemps for 208 yards

I think Luck is as good as anyone to put stats up that will allow him to finish awfully close to that QB 1 tier with a good chance of sneaking into the top 10. If a QB like Dalton can throw for 3,400 yards with 20 td's and 13 ints as a rookie I don't see how Luck is not a safe bet to better that season by a good margin.

Passing numbers were up as a whole last year. This is a different NFL than 11 years ago when Manning as a rookie was still able to throw for 4,131 yards with 26 td's to 23 ints.

This is not an ordinary NFL rookie QB. This is the read deal entering a very passer friendly NFL league. The staff projections seem low for a QB that is as close to the real deal hot shot rookie QB to enter the NFL ever.

I am guessing that Luck will finish in the 3,700 yard to 4,100 yard range with 25-29 tds passing the ball with 16-19 ints.

 
'Hang 10 said:
'mastergg said:
For anyone thinking it's crazy to project Luck's stats that high, all i can say is "why not?" He's the best prospect ever playing on a fast rack indoors with some weapons in a passer friendly league against some bad defenses. were not talking blaine gabbert here. i would say its better than a 50/50 chance he's a serviceable qb1, based on the fact he'll probably scramble for 3-6 tds.
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Why not? Because he plays for worst team in the league that's absolutely devoid of weapons on offense. Thats why.
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Worst team in the league? doubtful. Looks like a team that wins 6-8 games to me. There's 2 teams within that division that are likely worse.
 
'Raider Nation said:
Can. Not. Wait. to see him on the road against Pittsburgh's defense tonight (8:00, NBC).

Now we'll see what's up. I hope LeBeau unleashes the hounds. :popcorn:
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You and me both!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
'Raider Nation said:
Can. Not. Wait. to see him on the road against Pittsburgh's defense tonight (8:00, NBC).

Now we'll see what's up. I hope LeBeau unleashes the hounds. :popcorn:
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As a Colts fan, I agree. There's no better way to prepare for the season, than real game blitz packages. I think it does the Colts and Luck a favor.
 
"Wayne, Collie, Fleener, Allen, are a good starting point for any rookie QB."

Wayne is old, Collie is one concussion away from retirement. And the rookie TEs are unproven. QBs with good rookie campaigns usually have a good o-line and either good WRs or RBs. The Colts have none of those. Without Garcon, there is no deep threat. It's a lot to ask Luck to be like Brady. Maybe the bad defense will give Luck garbage-time FF points, but I'm not sold.

 
'EBF said:
'SoBeDad said:
QBs with good rookie campaigns usually have a good o-line and either good WRs or RBs. The Colts have none of those.
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Yea, but Andrew Luck isn't your typical rookie QB.
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Neither were Marino, Manning, Newton and Dalton, but they had Duper, Clayton, Faulk, Harrison, Smith, Williams, and AJ Green. And some great o-linemen such as Stephenson and Jordan Gross. Maybe Luck will make Hilton look like Marvin Harrison and the TEs look like Gronk & Hernandez but I'm not buying yet.
 
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