Another #1 slot strategy (1 Viewer)

[wittyusername]

12 team re-draft, standard scoring plus PPR.

With the first pick I am thinking about going LT, then Stud WR (Owens, Holt, CJ), the Gates. I know its a little early for Gates and I would be risking depth in my RBs but it is real tempting to think about having 3 elite position players wrapped up. Trying to not follow FBG group think too much. Talk me out of this!!

 

[cstu]

LT and Gates are a great pair since you are guaranteed the vast majority of Chargers TD's. However, I don't see the point in forcing yourself into getting a WR at the turn (I don't think those guys will be there) and would take BPA.

 

[PsychoMan]

What about RB/RB/TE?

You would be lookin at:

LT & Edge/Portis/Benson etc

Gates

Then take 2 WR on the 4/5 turn. There should be a couple good ones left.

 

[mlball77]

In a start 3 WR league, I am not sold on this tactic. If its a start two, or some sort of a flex league, then it could very well be effective.

I think you can find RB depth like D. Foster or Fred Taylor to make a gamble like what you have detailed quite workable.

 

[wittyusername]

In a start 3 WR league, I am not sold on this tactic. If its a start two, or some sort of a flex league, then it could very well be effective. I think you can find RB depth like D. Foster or Fred Taylor to make a gamble like what you have detailed quite workable.

This league starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1PK, 1TD, plus 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE). In my mock drafts I have been ending up with LT, Ahman Green and Lamont Jordan.

 

[mlball77]

In a start 3 WR league, I am not sold on this tactic. If its a start two, or some sort of a flex league, then it could very well be effective. I think you can find RB depth like D. Foster or Fred Taylor to make a gamble like what you have detailed quite workable.

This league starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1PK, 1TD, plus 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE). In my mock drafts I have been ending up with LT, Ahman Green and Lamont Jordan.

Interesting. Who have you been landing at WR?In a start 3 league, I think you really need 4 fairly reliable WRs... its pretty important in my view.

 

[rotorooter]

too many RBBC to pass up a starting solid #2 RB

RB/RB/WR LT + (portis, brown, benson, james) + (boldin , hous, colston, moss)

RB/RB/QB LT + ( brady, brees, bulger) + (portis, brown, benson, james)

RB/WR/WR if there is a heavy run on RBs (wayn, roy williams, fitz) + (boldin , hous, colston, moss)

would be my top 3 choices.

I think you possibly get winslow or v. davis in the 4/5 round.

 

[wittyusername]

In a start 3 WR league, I am not sold on this tactic. If its a start two, or some sort of a flex league, then it could very well be effective. I think you can find RB depth like D. Foster or Fred Taylor to make a gamble like what you have detailed quite workable.

This league starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1PK, 1TD, plus 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE). In my mock drafts I have been ending up with LT, Ahman Green and Lamont Jordan.

Interesting. Who have you been landing at WR?In a start 3 league, I think you really need 4 fairly reliable WRs... its pretty important in my view.

My WRs end up looking like: TO, Hines Ward, T. Glenn, and G. Jennings.

 

[softball]

12 team re-draft, standard scoring plus PPR.With the first pick I am thinking about going LT, then Stud WR (Owens, Holt, CJ), the Gates. I know its a little early for Gates and I would be risking depth in my RBs but it is real tempting to think about having 3 elite position players wrapped up. Trying to not follow FBG group think too much. Talk me out of this!!

It does seem like a good option, and I had a few #1 selections in 2006 . So I looked at it many ways and came up with this:It's messy.If the draft goes against you during the next two rounds you could be forced into selecting a RB that is not valuable enough to take, but needs to be taken so you have two on your team. The Gates pick really "locks" your next few picks in, and if he's even a remote let down you'll suffer because the #2 RB and #2 WR on your team are weakend.

 

[SSOG]

In a start 3 WR league, I am not sold on this tactic. If its a start two, or some sort of a flex league, then it could very well be effective.

This makes no sense at all. The fewer WRs you start, the less valuable each individual WR is. LT/WR/Gates makes *FAR* more sense in a 3WR league than it does in a 2WR league. If you don't believe me, look at the ADP of QBs in start 2 leagues vs. start 1 leagues.With that said, I'd much rather go Tomlinson/BPA/Gates. If there's a Maurice Jones-Drew still available, for instance, there's no reason to pass on him just because you decided before you even saw who was drafted that you wanted a WR in the 2nd.

 

[SSOG]

If the draft goes against you during the next two rounds you could be forced into selecting a RB that is not valuable enough to take, but needs to be taken so you have two on your team. The Gates pick really "locks" your next few picks in, and if he's even a remote let down you'll suffer because the #2 RB and #2 WR on your team are weakend.

This is the biggest logical fallacy I've seen on the boards, and it's also one of the most oft-repeated. It makes no sense whatsoever. Drafting Gates will not weaken any position except for one (whichever position you would have drafted had you not drafted Gates). For instance, compare the two following drafts:RB/RB/Gates/WR/WR/QB/WRtoRB/RB/WR/WR/WR/QB/GatesIn this instance, drafting Gates in the third only affected ONE position. The rest of your team is exactly the same except for one WR. The question now becomes whether Gates + the WR you get in the 7th would outscore the WR you could get in the 3rd and the TE you could get in the 7th. It's as simple as that.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

What about going LT/Carson/Gates? I've seen some serious runs on QB recently, and plenty of times the 1 spot doesn't see Brady, Brees, Bulger, or even McNabb at 4.12. If that's the case, that means some value at RB/WR is dropping. What if you could start with LT/Gates/Carson/AP/Driver (or similar WR)? I guess it depends on which position you prefer this year's sleepers.

 

[djjosee]

Last year I did Alexander / Moss / Gates at the # 1 slot I know, you can't predict cetain issues (injry / hatred towards team) but all I know is that I was still in the hunt due to trading and free agency and if the others would of panned out I would of KILLED! That being said ... I would definately do it again (depending who's available at the time of your pick). Good luck.

 

[mlball77]

In a start 3 WR league, I am not sold on this tactic. If its a start two, or some sort of a flex league, then it could very well be effective.

This makes no sense at all. The fewer WRs you start, the less valuable each individual WR is. LT/WR/Gates makes *FAR* more sense in a 3WR league than it does in a 2WR league. If you don't believe me, look at the ADP of QBs in start 2 leagues vs. start 1 leagues.With that said, I'd much rather go Tomlinson/BPA/Gates. If there's a Maurice Jones-Drew still available, for instance, there's no reason to pass on him just because you decided before you even saw who was drafted that you wanted a WR in the 2nd.

I don't think I was clear with my logic. And CLEARLY WRs have more value in a start 3 league.I was thinking that if he takes LT, WR, Gates to start it off, then he may only have one WR with his first five picks because he will have to take a RB at the RD 4-5 turn and may consider another, or possibly a QB (which I probably wouldn't recommend). And in a start 3 WR league, only taking one WR in the first five rounds would likely be a mistake, imho. Even if that one WR is a stud.But if he goes 2 RB, 1 TE and 2 WR in the first five... and picks up another WR at the RD 6-7 turn (or finds great value later), it could potentially work out nice. Again, guys like Foster and Taylor can be added for RB depth later (or Jordan as the poster said he has been landing in mocks).

 

[The Reytheist]

This is the biggest logical fallacy I've seen on the boards, and it's also one of the most oft-repeated. It makes no sense whatsoever. Drafting Gates will not weaken any position except for one (whichever position you would have drafted had you not drafted Gates). For instance, compare the two following drafts:

RB/RB/Gates/WR/WR/QB/WR

to

RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/QB/Gates

In this instance, drafting Gates in the third only affected ONE position. The rest of your team is exactly the same except for one WR. The question now becomes whether Gates + the WR you get in the 7th would outscore the WR you could get in the 3rd and the TE you could get in the 7th. It's as simple as that.

I dug into some projections to compare numbers. For an easy reference, I used Clayton Gray's Catch Performace cheatsheet (to account for your PPR) for your starting roster from the 159 cheatsheets section. http://www.footballguys.com/cs_c1e.htm to be precise.Considering the two scenarios posted above, we see that TEs aside from Gates do not have the value to put them in the first five rounds. He is the 36th best value, last pick in the third round.

Drafting Gates in the 3rd, you should end up with something like...

3.1 Gates - 232 points

7.1 Jerry Porter/Derrick Mason/Brandon Jones - 152 points

though you may be further down the list for WRs.

Drafting a WR round 3, you get...

3.1 Javon Walker - 243 points

7.1 Tony Gonzalez 179 / Jason Witten - 160 points

assuming three TE run in the sixth before you pick.

IMHO Drafting Gates from the 1 spot in a 12 league team doesn't optimize your value. Not likely he'd drop to 4.12 either.

 

[Sketch]

It would be pretty hard for me to pass up on Edgerrin if he's available at 2.12/3.01. Looking at the Chargers SoS, he's probably one of the best complementary players available. From there, you can get Gates to account for most the Chargers' work or somebody like Carson to complement your RB pair.

 

[wittyusername]

This is the biggest logical fallacy I've seen on the boards, and it's also one of the most oft-repeated. It makes no sense whatsoever. Drafting Gates will not weaken any position except for one (whichever position you would have drafted had you not drafted Gates). For instance, compare the two following drafts:

RB/RB/Gates/WR/WR/QB/WR

to

RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/QB/Gates

In this instance, drafting Gates in the third only affected ONE position. The rest of your team is exactly the same except for one WR. The question now becomes whether Gates + the WR you get in the 7th would outscore the WR you could get in the 3rd and the TE you could get in the 7th. It's as simple as that.

I dug into some projections to compare numbers. For an easy reference, I used Clayton Gray's Catch Performace cheatsheet (to account for your PPR) for your starting roster from the 159 cheatsheets section. http://www.footballguys.com/cs_c1e.htm to be precise.Considering the two scenarios posted above, we see that TEs aside from Gates do not have the value to put them in the first five rounds. He is the 36th best value, last pick in the third round.

Drafting Gates in the 3rd, you should end up with something like...

3.1 Gates - 232 points

7.1 Jerry Porter/Derrick Mason/Brandon Jones - 152 points

though you may be further down the list for WRs.

Drafting a WR round 3, you get...

3.1 Javon Walker - 243 points

7.1 Tony Gonzalez 179 / Jason Witten - 160 points

assuming three TE run in the sixth before you pick.

IMHO Drafting Gates from the 1 spot in a 12 league team doesn't optimize your value. Not likely he'd drop to 4.12 either.

Gates is definately going in the 3rd - that why I would have to use my 3.1 on the turn to snag him. After about 20 mocks so far using this strategy I am still undecided. Going LT/BPA/Gates or LT/BPA/BPA seems to give fairly balanced results - but this is placing a lot of stock into Gates (that he performs as projected and/or avoids injusry). Going LT/BPA/BPA would probably spread the risk a little better (at the expense of hitting the home run?).

 

[TheNext0]

I considered this as well, but I feel like the value of the RBs and WRs available at that pick might be too great to pull the trigger.

I think someone summed it up perfectly in another thread by saying "If the top 5 WRs are gone, then take Gates". I tend to agree, as Holt, Harrison, CJ, Owens and S Smith are consistent enough and talented enough to be taken ahead of Gates. After that, the drop off at WR shouldn't be as steep from Round 3 to 4. If I could get two of Evans, Driver, Ward, or Burress in 4 and 5, I'd be very confident heading into the season.

I should say that my experience is with 10 team leagues, so the availability of certain players in a 12 teamer isn't taken into consideration here.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Maybe I'm crazy, but how about going LT/BPA/BPA?

 

[K9 Hokie]

Maybe I'm crazy, but how about going LT/BPA/BPA?

Well, I guess the question is, in this 12 team redraft with PPR, if the top 6 WRs are gone along with Peyton and 16 RBs, is Gates the BPA at 3.01?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I think I like this strategy.

LT or SJax at in the first round.

TO or Harrison in the second round.

Gates in the third round.

McNabb or Bulger in the fourth round.

Stud Power! If these core players play up to their ability and you surround them with decent talent you dominate.