Based on what? They won 2 games last season. If Stafford stays healthy and starts 16 games he might lead the NFL in interceptions. They're lacking NFL talent in several areas and have no depth whatsoever. Not to mention the division they play in.
Of course, right now no one is predicting any team to finish 2-14 or 3-13, everything is rosey and optimistic. All the bottom dwellers have greatly improved themselves and surely won't be as bad as last season, right? The Lions have improved, the Browns have improved, the Rams have improved, the Chiefs have improved, the Raiders have improved, ect... same story, different year. Where are all those wins coming from?
The whole league isn't going to be 9-7 or 10-6, there will be some dominant teams who win 12-13 or more games. Subsequently, there will be a team this season who struggles to win three games, probably a couple to a few of them to be honest. Don't see any reason to believe the Lions won't again be one of the worst teams in the entire NFL. They're much likely to finish with 4 wins or less than they are to win more than 4 games.
Since I believe the over/under is 5 wins, there's somebody in Vegas who knows a lot more than you that would disagree.
Is that supposed to be a serious point?
The lines in Vegas simply reflect the general views of the betting public. That's what they're shaped and formed by.
Don't really get your point here. I could care less what the voting public thinks and how that's reflected in an over/under line.
The linesmaker doesn't take public perception into account, the bookmaker shifts lines to balance sides. At least that's what I remember being told, I'm not a big gambler. The point is you said they're much more likely to finish with 4 wins or less when in fact, they're more likely to finish with more.
Okay, I'm in this business and I want to take it easy on you but this is just wrong. You're right that the bookmaker wants to balance sides (for the most part) But he does it by measuring the public perception so you couldn't be more wrong there.
You say you're not a big gambler and that's obviously true. There are many websites and articles explaining the process of setting lines and they make for very interesting reading. Please spend a little downtime educating yourself so as not to destroy the credibility of your overall point, which may be a good one.
FTR as of today the line on Detroit is 5 wins, so that much was right. The public perception is that the Lions will finish with 5 wins so you can bet over 5 or under 5 and pay the juice each way.
ETA: Quote boxes are missing due to " went over the limit of quoted text".
				
			Of course, right now no one is predicting any team to finish 2-14 or 3-13, everything is rosey and optimistic. All the bottom dwellers have greatly improved themselves and surely won't be as bad as last season, right? The Lions have improved, the Browns have improved, the Rams have improved, the Chiefs have improved, the Raiders have improved, ect... same story, different year. Where are all those wins coming from?
The whole league isn't going to be 9-7 or 10-6, there will be some dominant teams who win 12-13 or more games. Subsequently, there will be a team this season who struggles to win three games, probably a couple to a few of them to be honest. Don't see any reason to believe the Lions won't again be one of the worst teams in the entire NFL. They're much likely to finish with 4 wins or less than they are to win more than 4 games.
Since I believe the over/under is 5 wins, there's somebody in Vegas who knows a lot more than you that would disagree.
Is that supposed to be a serious point?
The lines in Vegas simply reflect the general views of the betting public. That's what they're shaped and formed by.
Don't really get your point here. I could care less what the voting public thinks and how that's reflected in an over/under line.
The linesmaker doesn't take public perception into account, the bookmaker shifts lines to balance sides. At least that's what I remember being told, I'm not a big gambler. The point is you said they're much more likely to finish with 4 wins or less when in fact, they're more likely to finish with more.
Okay, I'm in this business and I want to take it easy on you but this is just wrong. You're right that the bookmaker wants to balance sides (for the most part) But he does it by measuring the public perception so you couldn't be more wrong there.
You say you're not a big gambler and that's obviously true. There are many websites and articles explaining the process of setting lines and they make for very interesting reading. Please spend a little downtime educating yourself so as not to destroy the credibility of your overall point, which may be a good one.
FTR as of today the line on Detroit is 5 wins, so that much was right. The public perception is that the Lions will finish with 5 wins so you can bet over 5 or under 5 and pay the juice each way.
ETA: Quote boxes are missing due to " went over the limit of quoted text".
			
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