Best move after a "QB run" (1 Viewer)

[Max Power]

Not sure if this varies in a redraft vs dynasty. Or in a 2 QB league vs a 1 QB league.

What is the Pool's thought on grabbing a player after a run has happened??? Considering you NEED that position.

Not grabing a player might leave you with even less to chose from, but if you do take someone, you will be getting minimal value in that pick.

Obvisouly at this point, there is usually a good amount of value at another position.

What is the call here? Bite the bullet, or take the best available?

 

[mlball77]

IMO, it does vary league to league. In general however, I sort of ascribe to the tiering philosophy. If a run happens and you can get one of the last guys on that tier at QB, then feel free to select him if you feel this player is your best route. However, if the recent QB run now forces you to take a QB at a lesser tier, I think often you are better served taking a player at a different position. If this occurs, QB is typically a position where good value can be had later in most drafts (depending on league format, of course). Plus, if you are reasonably confident the league will be active and you can find trading partners without too much of an issues, you may well be able to trade for a better QB after the draft.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Not sure if this varies in a redraft vs dynasty. Or in a 2 QB league vs a 1 QB league.

There's many variables. Who else is available at any position and will or won't be with my next pick is the first thing I consider. That makes draft position key. If I'm on or near the corner in a 16 teamer, then I probably take my highest rated QB to avoid handcuffing Orton to Grossman later. If I'm in a middle slot of a 12 teamer, I'm patient at QB and a fan of waiting to fill the position and avoiding runs in general.

 

[Andy Herron]

IMO, it does vary league to league. In general however, I sort of ascribe to the tiering philosophy. If a run happens and you can get one of the last guys on that tier at QB, then feel free to select him if you feel this player is your best route. However, if the recent QB run now forces you to take a QB at a lesser tier, I think often you are better served taking a player at a different position. If this occurs, QB is typically a position where good value can be had later in most drafts (depending on league format, of course). Plus, if you are reasonably confident the league will be active and you can find trading partners without too much of an issues, you may well be able to trade for a better QB after the draft.

Yep. Pretty much what mlball77 said.I rarely, if ever, let myself get caught in a run because you're nearly certain to lose value. Also, grabbing the best available player at another position usually breaks the run anyway. You've got to keep value in mind, not so much position. You can grab a sleeper QB next time around or so, and still make a deal/trade later if necessary. Bottom line: Don't get sucked into runs. Nearly everybody else benefits when/if you do. Take the guy you "want" to take, not the guy you think you're supposed to take.

 

[FUBAR]

IMO, it does vary league to league. In general however, I sort of ascribe to the tiering philosophy. If a run happens and you can get one of the last guys on that tier at QB, then feel free to select him if you feel this player is your best route. However, if the recent QB run now forces you to take a QB at a lesser tier, I think often you are better served taking a player at a different position. If this occurs, QB is typically a position where good value can be had later in most drafts (depending on league format, of course). Plus, if you are reasonably confident the league will be active and you can find trading partners without too much of an issues, you may well be able to trade for a better QB after the draft.

Yep. Pretty much what mlball77 said.I rarely, if ever, let myself get caught in a run because you're nearly certain to lose value. Also, grabbing the best available player at another position usually breaks the run anyway. You've got to keep value in mind, not so much position. You can grab a sleeper QB next time around or so, and still make a deal/trade later if necessary. Bottom line: Don't get sucked into runs. Nearly everybody else benefits when/if you do. Take the guy you "want" to take, not the guy you think you're supposed to take.

It really depends on who's left and who's taken in the run.In a 12 team league, 1 QB:If this is the 4th round, Brady and Peyton are gone, and the run was Ben, Brees, Romo... then you're up I strongly consider taking Palmer. If this is the 6th, those guys are all gone, and the run is Hass, Eli, McNabb... and you're up, I probably wait. Too many rough equals there and it's unlikely the group I'd consider equal will all be taken. If this is a 2 QB league, the run should go faster than top RBs, and I usually want to get one. But again, I'm not going to reach for a guy way before he should be taken.Another factor is the quality of the league. I play in a couple work leagues where I know QBs will go high, and people will take 2 before shoring up their WRs, and I know I can get a couple under the radar players, so I take the QB, it's just for fun and camaraderie anyway.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I think the word "run" is a little overused/confusing.....really what is a run...?...is there such a thing.....if there is a run then it proabbly means "a group of guys at a particular position where some are being drafted where they shouldn't be valuewise"......

I think you adjust to a run or any situation like this just as you would anything else in the draft......you decide what is best for your team and if you can wait or not......which is what you do with every pick, run or no run.....there is no set strategy to deal with runs....it depends on your league and how your guys draft.....I have seen some guys purposely take a QB #2 way early just to mess with guys they knew had passed on a run thinking they could wait......

 

[Andy Herron]

I think the word "run" is a little overused/confusing.....really what is a run...?...is there such a thing.....if there is a run then it proabbly means "a group of guys at a particular position where some are being drafted where they shouldn't be valuewise"......

I think you adjust to a run or any situation like this just as you would anything else in the draft......you decide what is best for your team and if you can wait or not......which is what you do with every pick, run or no run.....there is no set strategy to deal with runs....it depends on your league and how your guys draft.....I have seen some guys purposely take a QB #2 way early just to mess with guys they knew had passed on a run thinking they could wait......

That's true too. Knowing your competition is always beneficial.

 

[SuperJohn96]

I think the word "run" is a little overused/confusing.....really what is a run...?...is there such a thing.....if there is a run then it proabbly means "a group of guys at a particular position where some are being drafted where they shouldn't be valuewise"......

I think you adjust to a run or any situation like this just as you would anything else in the draft......you decide what is best for your team and if you can wait or not......which is what you do with every pick, run or no run.....there is no set strategy to deal with runs....it depends on your league and how your guys draft.....I have seen some guys purposely take a QB #2 way early just to mess with guys they knew had passed on a run thinking they could wait......

That's true too. Knowing your competition is always beneficial.

OMG, I got completely screwed by my buddy a few years ago with this move.Two things are known about me, I like to draft QBs late, and I like to trade a lot.

So that year (and I forget the players involved) but my buddy drafted right before me, 11 QBs were gone and I had QB #12 and then a big dropoff to my tier starting at QB#13.

So of course he drafts QB #12 as his QB#2, I wait on my QB and wait a bit, and then there is a run of like 6 more QBs, and I think I ended up with QB #18-20.

And then nobody with a decent QB#2 would trade with me and I had solid guys on the bench but was getting pumelled at the QB position all year.

I've since learned to mix it up a bit so I'm not too predictable drafting as my team usually has a bullseye on it.

 

[Verbal Kint]

I got caught at the end of a QB run in my league last year. 12 of the 14 guys had a QB, and there were still a handful of servicable QBs out there, so I told myself "Don't get sucked into a run" and drafted what I thought was better value at RB. In the next 26 picks, I think 7 guys drafted their backup QB, leaving me with Rex Grossman as my QB.

Edit: FWIW, I use Draft Dominator in all my drafts, which is how I knew that all but me and one other guy had their starting QB, and that I could find better value elsewhere. What it won't tell you is whether your league mates will go on a backup QB run early in the draft for no apparent reason.

Lesson to be learned: know your teammates drafting styles. Not everyone drafts the way you do.

 

[T Bell]

Others have pretty much said this, but as long as these criteria all apply, then you should pick a player at the position that's being gobbled up on a "run":

1) you don't have a starter at that position, and the players being drafted are starting caliber;

2) the players remaining on the board when your pick is up are dramatically less valuable (i.e., "a lower tier") using VBD than the ones who were just selected;

3) by waiting to draft a player at this position beyond this next pick of yours, you are certain to end up with an unacceptably inferior player; and

4) there are no players on the board at another position at which you need a starter and whose VBD value is greater than the players available at that given position.

The problem with going with a run is that you run the risk of buying high, in other words overpaying for a player just because of the position he plays and not because he really justfies the draft position with the value he'll provide you.

Scarcity, which is really what we're talking about here, is a consideration, but shouldn't be an overriding one IMHO. Usually when your leaguemates are running on one position, there are guys at other positions who are ripe for the picking. Also, the herd mentality is such that others may want to make the "buy high" mistake, and you can trade down for excellent trade value.

Runs on positions, like all discernible draft day trends, are opportunities for you if you're cagey enough to see them.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

2 words...Draft Dominator

 

[T Bell]

2 words...Draft Dominator

It's definitely a great program. You may not agree with how it ranks, but it's unparalleled at organizing draft day data and making it understandable.

 

[CareerCreature]

The draft is can be a crucial decision in how the season goes.

 

[massraider]

.....I have seen some guys purposely take a QB #2 way early just to mess with guys they knew had passed on a run thinking they could wait......

I am good for doing that, although not just to screw someone else over, but at that point, it becomes a value play.Just like there are always good reasons for drafting a TE relatively early, and everyone has been told you can wait on a QB, I like having the best backup QB in the league, because there is a darn good chance he's going to see the field.I got burned by this once, where I was back to back on a serpentine draft, and got clever, taking depth at other positions, and figured I'd go back-to-back, and run a QBBC. By the time it got back to me, 4 more QBs had gone, as backups, and I was in big trouble.

 

[TheHosers]

I got caught at the end of a QB run in my league last year. 12 of the 14 guys had a QB, and there were still a handful of servicable QBs out there, so I told myself "Don't get sucked into a run" and drafted what I thought was better value at RB. In the next 26 picks, I think 7 guys drafted their backup QB, leaving me with Rex Grossman as my QB.

Edit: FWIW, I use Draft Dominator in all my drafts, which is how I knew that all but me and one other guy had their starting QB, and that I could find better value elsewhere. What it won't tell you is whether your league mates will go on a backup QB run early in the draft for no apparent reason.

Lesson to be learned: know your teammates drafting styles. Not everyone drafts the way you do.

One thing though that really helps avoid a situation like that is using your league's past draft results and creating a User ADP list based on your specific league drafting. I started this last year with the DD using the 3 previous years data. It really helps breakdown where guys are drafting the top QB's, backup QB's, TE's, etc.Of course there will be odd stuff happen in every draft but for the most part it was definitely an added bonus to be able to know when to wait an extra round on a TE or grab a top QB or backup QB a round early based specifically on how my league mates draft.

 

[gregjcross]

I got caught at the end of a QB run in my league last year. 12 of the 14 guys had a QB, and there were still a handful of servicable QBs out there, so I told myself "Don't get sucked into a run" and drafted what I thought was better value at RB. In the next 26 picks, I think 7 guys drafted their backup QB, leaving me with Rex Grossman as my QB.

Edit: FWIW, I use Draft Dominator in all my drafts, which is how I knew that all but me and one other guy had their starting QB, and that I could find better value elsewhere. What it won't tell you is whether your league mates will go on a backup QB run early in the draft for no apparent reason.

Lesson to be learned: know your teammates drafting styles. Not everyone drafts the way you do.

One thing though that really helps avoid a situation like that is using your league's past draft results and creating a User ADP list based on your specific league drafting. I started this last year with the DD using the 3 previous years data. It really helps breakdown where guys are drafting the top QB's, backup QB's, TE's, etc.Of course there will be odd stuff happen in every draft but for the most part it was definitely an added bonus to be able to know when to wait an extra round on a TE or grab a top QB or backup QB a round early based specifically on how my league mates draft.

I guess the FANEX owners missed this post, dont they draft like 90% RBs in the first three rounds

 

[renesauz]

It's a calculated risk either way, and a very difficult question to answer.

1. YOU GO QB

-In this scenario, it feels like you're buying high since you don't believe QB is the best value. BUT...if everyone else is/has done the same thing, you really aren't risking anything. The same RB/WR value you felt would be there this pick (had the run not happened) will be there on your next pick. If you didn't plan on QB this pick anyway, then chances are good you're getting a QB similar to expectation as well. (IE: You just have the rounds reversed, so following the trend is not likely to cost you anything on your team as opposed to what you had originally planned). Going QB is the SAFE play.

2. YOU GO VALUE ELSEWHERE

- In this scenario, you gamble that the best QB's available now will still be available later. Because of the run, you notice that there are WR/RB's available that you did not expect to be available...steals. The risk you run is that if the QB run continues, or a QB2 run starts, any advantage you gain with this pick could be shattered by your lack at QB. This is a high risk/high reward strategy that could win a championship.....or lose it.

In the end, the decision has to be made on a case by case basis depending on a variety of factors, and there is no right answer. Those factors include, but are not limited to:

a: Draft position (how long until your next pick)

b: Your tiers (how many are left in your current Rb, WR, And QB tiers if you suscribe to the tiering method)

c: How much risk is already built into your team (The more chances you take, the more likely you are of failing in the end)

d: Opponents tendencies, if you know them

 

[The Man with the Plan]

QB's one of the easiest positions to fill in fantasy football. If a group of people want to overdraft for good but not great quarterbacks while I get good players at other positions then be my guest. I think this fear of being without a quality qb is overblown. There are always good options at available all throughout the draft every season.

Even in the worst case scenario where you don't have a QB that you like you could always pick somebody up from the waiver wire and play matchups. Hell you might even find someone better than the guys that were drafted. Honestly I just don't see a QB run as that big of a deal.

 

[mbuehner]

I've had (and seen) great success with the late draft shotgun approach. You will almost certainly have your choice of 20+ starting QBs when everyone else is scrambling for part time running backs and teams #2 & 3 WRs. I like to go back to back in the midlate rounds before the backup QBs start going and then grab a dark horse at the end of the draft. A lot of leagues allow you to assign players as tie breakers, and QBs are great for that even if you dont want them as your starter, so rostering 3 QBs isnt a hardship necessarilly. Plus you'll know pretty quick if you have a dud.

You can end your season by screwing up your RBs, QBs you can recover. If your team is stacked, QB is one of the most tradeable commodities into the season. Even if you didnt hit on the second tier QB that broke out, chances are he's cooling his heels on another owners bench. Probably an owner desperate for something you've got.

That being said- in one of my leagues i'm two years running runner up because my QBs took a dump in the championship (Romo and then Kitna). It might not be a bad idea to trade up for a 'sure thing' late in the season even if you are feeling pretty good about your overachieving QB. Or maybe im just snakebit.

A quick, self-indulgent P.S. to that story: two years ago i benched Bulger and started Romo, costing me a championship. Last year i stuck with Kitna and left Garrard on the bench, costing me a championship. The lesson here? Sometimes you should always dance with who brung ya, and sometimes never. Lifes a #####.

 

[I Am Rick James]

Lesson to be learned: know your teammates drafting styles. Not everyone drafts the way you do.

One thing though that really helps avoid a situation like that is using your league's past draft results and creating a User ADP list based on your specific league drafting. I started this last year with the DD using the 3 previous years data. It really helps breakdown where guys are drafting the top QB's, backup QB's, TE's, etc.

Of course there will be odd stuff happen in every draft but for the most part it was definitely an added bonus to be able to know when to wait an extra round on a TE or grab a top QB or backup QB a round early based specifically on how my league mates draft.

I couldn't agree more, even if you are surrounded by guppies, your league draft tendencies MUST be taken into consideration or you won't be able to draft a balanced team.

 

[bjabrad]

skip the QB and go with best player available and start your own run on another position which will tie up others to spend their picks on the new run and then you can go back and pick up your QB when the value is appropriate. Never reach at QB, especially at QB (since there are so many hovering at the same point level). Don't panic and make it worse by locking in low value. The early QB pickers will be satisfied after they've gotten their QB pick and when you start the new run on another position they'll have no choice but to follow since they are weak in that position after picking up their QB.