@rockaction shared a good line last night.
I've long been interested in this from a predictive angle. For anything, not just politics. Actually I'm more interested in the non political part of it.
I know it's popular for many people to use "Sharp Money" takes and see how the betting markets are predicting an outcome. I've never really been sure how one determines in the overall betting which bets are "Sharp Money" and which bets are "Not Sharp Money".
And I know last night the odds were all over the place. It makes me think Walker's point is more right. These folks aren't predictive geniuses. They're just following the herd. But I also know smart people who put a lot of faith in the betting markets.
What do you think?
As Jesse Walker of Reason magazine said tonight, "betting markets are just groupthink with cocaine jitters."
I've long been interested in this from a predictive angle. For anything, not just politics. Actually I'm more interested in the non political part of it.
I know it's popular for many people to use "Sharp Money" takes and see how the betting markets are predicting an outcome. I've never really been sure how one determines in the overall betting which bets are "Sharp Money" and which bets are "Not Sharp Money".
And I know last night the odds were all over the place. It makes me think Walker's point is more right. These folks aren't predictive geniuses. They're just following the herd. But I also know smart people who put a lot of faith in the betting markets.
What do you think?
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