Brand Lloyd (finally) signs with New England (1 Viewer)

[duaneok66]

good post. Amazing how every other pass that is not completed is considered a drop.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think you severely overestimate the number of passes Tom Brady can throw on the same play. There is little to no chance Lloyd is going to be one of the two most targeted players in NE. Welker and Gronkowski will both be options 1 and 1A. Now you add in another talent like Hernandez to go along with Lloyd as options 3 and 3A. I just have an extremely hard time envisioning Lloyd as anything other than a fantasy WR3 in that offense. Dreaming of Moss likely numbers is just that. Dreaming.

Do you know how many times one team has had three 1000 yard receivers? To the best of my knowledge, it's happened once in the history of the league. Manning/Harrison/Wayne/Stokley. It was 2004, and Manning threw for almost 4600 yards and 49TDs. Nobody else on that team eclipsed 500 yards receiving.

To be honest, fantasy wise, I think NE is a terrible landing spot for Lloyd.

Since nobody else is going to call you out on this, your recollection is extremely poor. 1000 yards by 3 receivers has happened 5 times. The Colts were not even the most recent...My link

Thanks for the link. I stand corrected.However, that doesn't make the picture for Lloyd any rosier going forward if he ends up in NE. The fourth leading receiver on each of those teams had less than 500 yards. Does anyone really think Lloyd is going to come in and make Hernandez a guy that totals less than 500 yards? Honestly, I think Hernandez has a better chance of making that happen to Lloyd than vice versa.

Also look at the 3rd guy in each of those situations.

Breaston: 1006/3

Emmanuel: 1039/5

Stokley: 1077/10

Sanders: 1138/4

Joiner: 1132/4

Most of those guys would finish between WR18-30 on a typical year. (outside of Stokley) Not bad, but not exactly leading your team to a title either.

I'll stand by my assertion that Lloyd will be no better than a WR3 or WR4 if he goes to NE. He just won't get enough targets to do much better.

We get it, you've made up your mind.

 

[Pat Patriot]

good post. Amazing how every other pass that is not completed is considered a drop.

I agree that not every incompletion is a drop but when an all-pro receiver gets hit in both palms simultaneously with the ball, he needs to make the catch.

 

[Jous]

good post. Amazing how every other pass that is not completed is considered a drop.

I agree that not every incompletion is a drop but when an all-pro receiver gets hit in both palms simultaneously with the ball, he needs to make the catch.

Disagree, It was a hell of an effort to get 2 hands on it in the first place, and it would have been an amazing catch had he pulled it in. Bad throw by Brady.In a case like that though, where blame could be shifted either direction based on how effective someone's argument is, it basically boils down to what lens you're viewing the play through. Most Pats fans will blame Welker more than Brady, because subconsciously you like Brady more than Welker, so he gets more benefit of the doubt. Pats haters on the other hand are much more likely to blame Brady, since they usually like Welker more, if given choice between the two.Personally, I'm not a Patriots fan, but Brady is one of my favorite QB's of all time... nonetheless, I have to say it's much more Brady's fault than Welker's.

 

[Sabertooth]

Lloyd's specialty is going after poorly thrown balls, fwiw. His body control is about as good as anybody in the league.

 

[duaneok66]

good post. Amazing how every other pass that is not completed is considered a drop.

I agree that not every incompletion is a drop but when an all-pro receiver gets hit in both palms simultaneously with the ball, he needs to make the catch.

Disagree, It was a hell of an effort to get 2 hands on it in the first place, and it would have been an amazing catch had he pulled it in. Bad throw by Brady.In a case like that though, where blame could be shifted either direction based on how effective someone's argument is, it basically boils down to what lens you're viewing the play through. Most Pats fans will blame Welker more than Brady, because subconsciously you like Brady more than Welker, so he gets more benefit of the doubt. Pats haters on the other hand are much more likely to blame Brady, since they usually like Welker more, if given choice between the two.Personally, I'm not a Patriots fan, but Brady is one of my favorite QB's of all time... nonetheless, I have to say it's much more Brady's fault than Welker's.

Politics aside, I just think it was a poorly thrown ball. Your original premise is correct - it was amazing that he touched the ball AT ALL. The unwritten premise that "if you get two hands on it, then you should catch it" it inherently flawed.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think you severely overestimate the number of passes Tom Brady can throw on the same play. There is little to no chance Lloyd is going to be one of the two most targeted players in NE. Welker and Gronkowski will both be options 1 and 1A. Now you add in another talent like Hernandez to go along with Lloyd as options 3 and 3A. I just have an extremely hard time envisioning Lloyd as anything other than a fantasy WR3 in that offense. Dreaming of Moss likely numbers is just that. Dreaming.

Do you know how many times one team has had three 1000 yard receivers? To the best of my knowledge, it's happened once in the history of the league. Manning/Harrison/Wayne/Stokley. It was 2004, and Manning threw for almost 4600 yards and 49TDs. Nobody else on that team eclipsed 500 yards receiving.

To be honest, fantasy wise, I think NE is a terrible landing spot for Lloyd.

Since nobody else is going to call you out on this, your recollection is extremely poor. 1000 yards by 3 receivers has happened 5 times. The Colts were not even the most recent...My link

Thanks for the link. I stand corrected.However, that doesn't make the picture for Lloyd any rosier going forward if he ends up in NE. The fourth leading receiver on each of those teams had less than 500 yards. Does anyone really think Lloyd is going to come in and make Hernandez a guy that totals less than 500 yards? Honestly, I think Hernandez has a better chance of making that happen to Lloyd than vice versa.

Also look at the 3rd guy in each of those situations.

Breaston: 1006/3

Emmanuel: 1039/5

Stokley: 1077/10

Sanders: 1138/4

Joiner: 1132/4

Most of those guys would finish between WR18-30 on a typical year. (outside of Stokley) Not bad, but not exactly leading your team to a title either.

I'll stand by my assertion that Lloyd will be no better than a WR3 or WR4 if he goes to NE. He just won't get enough targets to do much better.

We get it, you've made up your mind.

Maybe you could enlighten me then with some of your own analysis. You've said he is talented and was the #1 WR in fantasy in 2010. That really is only marginally pertinent to how big of numbers he would put up in NE. I'll grant you he'll likely know the offense well, and that one couldn't ask for a better QB throwing the ball than Brady. What I fail to see is how he will get enough targets. Perhaps instead of a snarky comment, you could address that issue. I'll even provide some basics to work with:

There were 19 RB/WR/TE that had 1000 yards or more last year. 14 of them had more than 120 targets. Here are the other 5 with their targets and yards.

AJ Green 115 targets, 1057 yards

Vincent Jackson 114, 1106

Mike Wallace 113, 1193

Marques Colston 109, 1143

Jordy Nelson 95, 1263

Last two seasons for Brandon Lloyd:

2010: 153 targets 1448 yards.

2011: 150 targets 966 yards.

Last years targets for NE.

Welker 173

Gronk 124

Hernandez 113

Branch 90

Ocho 32

Woodhead 31

BJGE 13

Six others with less than 10.

One last thing. Tom Brady attempted 611 passes last season for 5235 yards. Both career highs. It's certainly possible he'll attempt that many passes again. If you look at Brady's last 4 full season's (including his 50TD 2007), his average attempts are 561 however. That is probably a much more reasonable projection.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think you severely overestimate the number of passes Tom Brady can throw on the same play. There is little to no chance Lloyd is going to be one of the two most targeted players in NE. Welker and Gronkowski will both be options 1 and 1A. Now you add in another talent like Hernandez to go along with Lloyd as options 3 and 3A. I just have an extremely hard time envisioning Lloyd as anything other than a fantasy WR3 in that offense. Dreaming of Moss likely numbers is just that. Dreaming.

Do you know how many times one team has had three 1000 yard receivers? To the best of my knowledge, it's happened once in the history of the league. Manning/Harrison/Wayne/Stokley. It was 2004, and Manning threw for almost 4600 yards and 49TDs. Nobody else on that team eclipsed 500 yards receiving.

To be honest, fantasy wise, I think NE is a terrible landing spot for Lloyd.

Since nobody else is going to call you out on this, your recollection is extremely poor. 1000 yards by 3 receivers has happened 5 times. The Colts were not even the most recent...My link

Thanks for the link. I stand corrected.However, that doesn't make the picture for Lloyd any rosier going forward if he ends up in NE. The fourth leading receiver on each of those teams had less than 500 yards. Does anyone really think Lloyd is going to come in and make Hernandez a guy that totals less than 500 yards? Honestly, I think Hernandez has a better chance of making that happen to Lloyd than vice versa.

Also look at the 3rd guy in each of those situations.

Breaston: 1006/3

Emmanuel: 1039/5

Stokley: 1077/10

Sanders: 1138/4

Joiner: 1132/4

Most of those guys would finish between WR18-30 on a typical year. (outside of Stokley) Not bad, but not exactly leading your team to a title either.

I'll stand by my assertion that Lloyd will be no better than a WR3 or WR4 if he goes to NE. He just won't get enough targets to do much better.

We get it, you've made up your mind.

Maybe you could enlighten me then with some of your own analysis. You've said he is talented and was the #1 WR in fantasy in 2010. That really is only marginally pertinent to how big of numbers he would put up in NE. I'll grant you he'll likely know the offense well, and that one couldn't ask for a better QB throwing the ball than Brady. What I fail to see is how he will get enough targets. Perhaps instead of a snarky comment, you could address that issue. I'll even provide some basics to work with:

There were 19 RB/WR/TE that had 1000 yards or more last year. 14 of them had more than 120 targets. Here are the other 5 with their targets and yards.

AJ Green 115 targets, 1057 yards

Vincent Jackson 114, 1106

Mike Wallace 113, 1193

Marques Colston 109, 1143

Jordy Nelson 95, 1263

Last two seasons for Brandon Lloyd:

2010: 153 targets 1448 yards.

2011: 150 targets 966 yards.

Last years targets for NE.

Welker 173

Gronk 124

Hernandez 113

Branch 90

Ocho 32

Woodhead 31

BJGE 13

Six others with less than 10.

One last thing. Tom Brady attempted 611 passes last season for 5235 yards. Both career highs. It's certainly possible he'll attempt that many passes again. If you look at Brady's last 4 full season's (including his 50TD 2007), his average attempts are 561 however. That is probably a much more reasonable projection.

We could sit here and project numbers all day long, and they don't really mean anything at all. Jason Wood made that point in his Mike McCarthy thread. We just don't know what will happen. What we do know is that Welker has gotten a ton of targets. Gronk has gotten a lot as well. What is interesting to me is that Branch got so many last season. I think Lloyd would get more than Branch based simply on the fact that he is a vastly better receiver than Branch at this stage in their careers. Do I want to pin a number on it? No.We were talking about upside before and I stand by my assertion that his upside is WR1 type of numbers. We don't know what injuries or opponents will do. Remember Lloyd got those numbers back in Denver when he was their top threat. On New England, he might be anywhere from the 1st to the 3rd best receivers. We haven't seen what he can do with a top QB yet since the lightbulb went on for him. To just assume that Welker and Gronkowski are going to get 300 targets between them is not something I am ready to do at all. We just don't know how that will shake out.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think you severely overestimate the number of passes Tom Brady can throw on the same play. There is little to no chance Lloyd is going to be one of the two most targeted players in NE. Welker and Gronkowski will both be options 1 and 1A. Now you add in another talent like Hernandez to go along with Lloyd as options 3 and 3A. I just have an extremely hard time envisioning Lloyd as anything other than a fantasy WR3 in that offense. Dreaming of Moss likely numbers is just that. Dreaming.

Do you know how many times one team has had three 1000 yard receivers? To the best of my knowledge, it's happened once in the history of the league. Manning/Harrison/Wayne/Stokley. It was 2004, and Manning threw for almost 4600 yards and 49TDs. Nobody else on that team eclipsed 500 yards receiving.

To be honest, fantasy wise, I think NE is a terrible landing spot for Lloyd.

Since nobody else is going to call you out on this, your recollection is extremely poor. 1000 yards by 3 receivers has happened 5 times. The Colts were not even the most recent...My link

Thanks for the link. I stand corrected.However, that doesn't make the picture for Lloyd any rosier going forward if he ends up in NE. The fourth leading receiver on each of those teams had less than 500 yards. Does anyone really think Lloyd is going to come in and make Hernandez a guy that totals less than 500 yards? Honestly, I think Hernandez has a better chance of making that happen to Lloyd than vice versa.

Also look at the 3rd guy in each of those situations.

Breaston: 1006/3

Emmanuel: 1039/5

Stokley: 1077/10

Sanders: 1138/4

Joiner: 1132/4

Most of those guys would finish between WR18-30 on a typical year. (outside of Stokley) Not bad, but not exactly leading your team to a title either.

I'll stand by my assertion that Lloyd will be no better than a WR3 or WR4 if he goes to NE. He just won't get enough targets to do much better.

We get it, you've made up your mind.

Maybe you could enlighten me then with some of your own analysis. You've said he is talented and was the #1 WR in fantasy in 2010. That really is only marginally pertinent to how big of numbers he would put up in NE. I'll grant you he'll likely know the offense well, and that one couldn't ask for a better QB throwing the ball than Brady. What I fail to see is how he will get enough targets. Perhaps instead of a snarky comment, you could address that issue. I'll even provide some basics to work with:

There were 19 RB/WR/TE that had 1000 yards or more last year. 14 of them had more than 120 targets. Here are the other 5 with their targets and yards.

AJ Green 115 targets, 1057 yards

Vincent Jackson 114, 1106

Mike Wallace 113, 1193

Marques Colston 109, 1143

Jordy Nelson 95, 1263

Last two seasons for Brandon Lloyd:

2010: 153 targets 1448 yards.

2011: 150 targets 966 yards.

Last years targets for NE.

Welker 173

Gronk 124

Hernandez 113

Branch 90

Ocho 32

Woodhead 31

BJGE 13

Six others with less than 10.

One last thing. Tom Brady attempted 611 passes last season for 5235 yards. Both career highs. It's certainly possible he'll attempt that many passes again. If you look at Brady's last 4 full season's (including his 50TD 2007), his average attempts are 561 however. That is probably a much more reasonable projection.

We could sit here and project numbers all day long, and they don't really mean anything at all. Jason Wood made that point in his Mike McCarthy thread. We just don't know what will happen. What we do know is that Welker has gotten a ton of targets. Gronk has gotten a lot as well. What is interesting to me is that Branch got so many last season. I think Lloyd would get more than Branch based simply on the fact that he is a vastly better receiver than Branch at this stage in their careers. Do I want to pin a number on it? No.We were talking about upside before and I stand by my assertion that his upside is WR1 type of numbers. We don't know what injuries or opponents will do. Remember Lloyd got those numbers back in Denver when he was their top threat. On New England, he might be anywhere from the 1st to the 3rd best receivers. We haven't seen what he can do with a top QB yet since the lightbulb went on for him. To just assume that Welker and Gronkowski are going to get 300 targets between them is not something I am ready to do at all. We just don't know how that will shake out.

I agree that assuming Welker and Gronk will combine for 300 targets isn't a sound strategy. I think Welker in particular is very likely to lose a decent percentage of his targets next season. There's also no question that injuries could play a big factor. If any one of those four guys got hurt for an extended period, it would obviously help the others' numbers.

The reason I don't like Lloyd's chances in NE barring injury, is the other top 3 pass catchers are exceptional players. Welker has averaged150 targets/season since arriving in NE. He's been to 4 straight pro bowls. Gronkowski is coming off the best season ever posted by a TE. He's arguably the best red zone weapon in the league.

Hernandez was just listed as one of the top 5 choices in Jeter23's poll. He's obviously very gifted as well. Adding Lloyd will very likely hurt all of the pass catchers numbers, as there is only one ball.

Now if Lloyd were to go to a place like Chicago, where he's got a strong armed QB, and a realistic shot at 150 targets? That looks like a recipe for a WR1 to me. If I were a Lloyd owner, a situation like that is what I would be rooting for.

 

[CalBear]

He would have made that catch Welker dropped in the 4th.

90% of the time Welker would have made that catch Welker dropped in the 4th.Edit:

90% of the time Welker would have made that catch Welker dropped after Tom Brady misplaced his throw in the 4th.

Actually, Welker makes that catch 100 times out of 100, apparently.

But only 122 times out of 123.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think you severely overestimate the number of passes Tom Brady can throw on the same play. There is little to no chance Lloyd is going to be one of the two most targeted players in NE. Welker and Gronkowski will both be options 1 and 1A. Now you add in another talent like Hernandez to go along with Lloyd as options 3 and 3A. I just have an extremely hard time envisioning Lloyd as anything other than a fantasy WR3 in that offense. Dreaming of Moss likely numbers is just that. Dreaming.

Do you know how many times one team has had three 1000 yard receivers? To the best of my knowledge, it's happened once in the history of the league. Manning/Harrison/Wayne/Stokley. It was 2004, and Manning threw for almost 4600 yards and 49TDs. Nobody else on that team eclipsed 500 yards receiving.

To be honest, fantasy wise, I think NE is a terrible landing spot for Lloyd.

Since nobody else is going to call you out on this, your recollection is extremely poor. 1000 yards by 3 receivers has happened 5 times. The Colts were not even the most recent...My link

Thanks for the link. I stand corrected.However, that doesn't make the picture for Lloyd any rosier going forward if he ends up in NE. The fourth leading receiver on each of those teams had less than 500 yards. Does anyone really think Lloyd is going to come in and make Hernandez a guy that totals less than 500 yards? Honestly, I think Hernandez has a better chance of making that happen to Lloyd than vice versa.

Also look at the 3rd guy in each of those situations.

Breaston: 1006/3

Emmanuel: 1039/5

Stokley: 1077/10

Sanders: 1138/4

Joiner: 1132/4

Most of those guys would finish between WR18-30 on a typical year. (outside of Stokley) Not bad, but not exactly leading your team to a title either.

I'll stand by my assertion that Lloyd will be no better than a WR3 or WR4 if he goes to NE. He just won't get enough targets to do much better.

We get it, you've made up your mind.

Maybe you could enlighten me then with some of your own analysis. You've said he is talented and was the #1 WR in fantasy in 2010. That really is only marginally pertinent to how big of numbers he would put up in NE. I'll grant you he'll likely know the offense well, and that one couldn't ask for a better QB throwing the ball than Brady. What I fail to see is how he will get enough targets. Perhaps instead of a snarky comment, you could address that issue. I'll even provide some basics to work with:

There were 19 RB/WR/TE that had 1000 yards or more last year. 14 of them had more than 120 targets. Here are the other 5 with their targets and yards.

AJ Green 115 targets, 1057 yards

Vincent Jackson 114, 1106

Mike Wallace 113, 1193

Marques Colston 109, 1143

Jordy Nelson 95, 1263

Last two seasons for Brandon Lloyd:

2010: 153 targets 1448 yards.

2011: 150 targets 966 yards.

Last years targets for NE.

Welker 173

Gronk 124

Hernandez 113

Branch 90

Ocho 32

Woodhead 31

BJGE 13

Six others with less than 10.

One last thing. Tom Brady attempted 611 passes last season for 5235 yards. Both career highs. It's certainly possible he'll attempt that many passes again. If you look at Brady's last 4 full season's (including his 50TD 2007), his average attempts are 561 however. That is probably a much more reasonable projection.

We could sit here and project numbers all day long, and they don't really mean anything at all. Jason Wood made that point in his Mike McCarthy thread. We just don't know what will happen. What we do know is that Welker has gotten a ton of targets. Gronk has gotten a lot as well. What is interesting to me is that Branch got so many last season. I think Lloyd would get more than Branch based simply on the fact that he is a vastly better receiver than Branch at this stage in their careers. Do I want to pin a number on it? No.We were talking about upside before and I stand by my assertion that his upside is WR1 type of numbers. We don't know what injuries or opponents will do. Remember Lloyd got those numbers back in Denver when he was their top threat. On New England, he might be anywhere from the 1st to the 3rd best receivers. We haven't seen what he can do with a top QB yet since the lightbulb went on for him. To just assume that Welker and Gronkowski are going to get 300 targets between them is not something I am ready to do at all. We just don't know how that will shake out.

I agree that assuming Welker and Gronk will combine for 300 targets isn't a sound strategy. I think Welker in particular is very likely to lose a decent percentage of his targets next season. There's also no question that injuries could play a big factor. If any one of those four guys got hurt for an extended period, it would obviously help the others' numbers.

The reason I don't like Lloyd's chances in NE barring injury, is the other top 3 pass catchers are exceptional players. Welker has averaged150 targets/season since arriving in NE. He's been to 4 straight pro bowls. Gronkowski is coming off the best season ever posted by a TE. He's arguably the best red zone weapon in the league.

Hernandez was just listed as one of the top 5 choices in Jeter23's poll. He's obviously very gifted as well. Adding Lloyd will very likely hurt all of the pass catchers numbers, as there is only one ball.

Now if Lloyd were to go to a place like Chicago, where he's got a strong armed QB, and a realistic shot at 150 targets? That looks like a recipe for a WR1 to me. If I were a Lloyd owner, a situation like that is what I would be rooting for.

I don't think we are far from disagreement. I probably tend to revere Lloyd's skills more than you do.

 

[E_Smith]

I think you severely overestimate the number of passes Tom Brady can throw on the same play. There is little to no chance Lloyd is going to be one of the two most targeted players in NE. Welker and Gronkowski will both be options 1 and 1A. Now you add in another talent like Hernandez to go along with Lloyd as options 3 and 3A. I just have an extremely hard time envisioning Lloyd as anything other than a fantasy WR3 in that offense. Dreaming of Moss likely numbers is just that. Dreaming.

Do you know how many times one team has had three 1000 yard receivers? To the best of my knowledge, it's happened once in the history of the league. Manning/Harrison/Wayne/Stokley. It was 2004, and Manning threw for almost 4600 yards and 49TDs. Nobody else on that team eclipsed 500 yards receiving.

To be honest, fantasy wise, I think NE is a terrible landing spot for Lloyd.

Since nobody else is going to call you out on this, your recollection is extremely poor. 1000 yards by 3 receivers has happened 5 times. The Colts were not even the most recent...My link

Thanks for the link. I stand corrected.However, that doesn't make the picture for Lloyd any rosier going forward if he ends up in NE. The fourth leading receiver on each of those teams had less than 500 yards. Does anyone really think Lloyd is going to come in and make Hernandez a guy that totals less than 500 yards? Honestly, I think Hernandez has a better chance of making that happen to Lloyd than vice versa.

Also look at the 3rd guy in each of those situations.

Breaston: 1006/3

Emmanuel: 1039/5

Stokley: 1077/10

Sanders: 1138/4

Joiner: 1132/4

Most of those guys would finish between WR18-30 on a typical year. (outside of Stokley) Not bad, but not exactly leading your team to a title either.

I'll stand by my assertion that Lloyd will be no better than a WR3 or WR4 if he goes to NE. He just won't get enough targets to do much better.

We get it, you've made up your mind.

Maybe you could enlighten me then with some of your own analysis. You've said he is talented and was the #1 WR in fantasy in 2010. That really is only marginally pertinent to how big of numbers he would put up in NE. I'll grant you he'll likely know the offense well, and that one couldn't ask for a better QB throwing the ball than Brady. What I fail to see is how he will get enough targets. Perhaps instead of a snarky comment, you could address that issue. I'll even provide some basics to work with:

There were 19 RB/WR/TE that had 1000 yards or more last year. 14 of them had more than 120 targets. Here are the other 5 with their targets and yards.

AJ Green 115 targets, 1057 yards

Vincent Jackson 114, 1106

Mike Wallace 113, 1193

Marques Colston 109, 1143

Jordy Nelson 95, 1263

Last two seasons for Brandon Lloyd:

2010: 153 targets 1448 yards.

2011: 150 targets 966 yards.

Last years targets for NE.

Welker 173

Gronk 124

Hernandez 113

Branch 90

Ocho 32

Woodhead 31

BJGE 13

Six others with less than 10.

One last thing. Tom Brady attempted 611 passes last season for 5235 yards. Both career highs. It's certainly possible he'll attempt that many passes again. If you look at Brady's last 4 full season's (including his 50TD 2007), his average attempts are 561 however. That is probably a much more reasonable projection.

We could sit here and project numbers all day long, and they don't really mean anything at all. Jason Wood made that point in his Mike McCarthy thread. We just don't know what will happen. What we do know is that Welker has gotten a ton of targets. Gronk has gotten a lot as well. What is interesting to me is that Branch got so many last season. I think Lloyd would get more than Branch based simply on the fact that he is a vastly better receiver than Branch at this stage in their careers. Do I want to pin a number on it? No.We were talking about upside before and I stand by my assertion that his upside is WR1 type of numbers. We don't know what injuries or opponents will do. Remember Lloyd got those numbers back in Denver when he was their top threat. On New England, he might be anywhere from the 1st to the 3rd best receivers. We haven't seen what he can do with a top QB yet since the lightbulb went on for him. To just assume that Welker and Gronkowski are going to get 300 targets between them is not something I am ready to do at all. We just don't know how that will shake out.

I agree that assuming Welker and Gronk will combine for 300 targets isn't a sound strategy. I think Welker in particular is very likely to lose a decent percentage of his targets next season. There's also no question that injuries could play a big factor. If any one of those four guys got hurt for an extended period, it would obviously help the others' numbers.

The reason I don't like Lloyd's chances in NE barring injury, is the other top 3 pass catchers are exceptional players. Welker has averaged150 targets/season since arriving in NE. He's been to 4 straight pro bowls. Gronkowski is coming off the best season ever posted by a TE. He's arguably the best red zone weapon in the league.

Hernandez was just listed as one of the top 5 choices in Jeter23's poll. He's obviously very gifted as well. Adding Lloyd will very likely hurt all of the pass catchers numbers, as there is only one ball.

Now if Lloyd were to go to a place like Chicago, where he's got a strong armed QB, and a realistic shot at 150 targets? That looks like a recipe for a WR1 to me. If I were a Lloyd owner, a situation like that is what I would be rooting for.

Obviously true. No chance IMO that Lloyd gets 150 targets in that offense.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think you severely overestimate the number of passes Tom Brady can throw on the same play. There is little to no chance Lloyd is going to be one of the two most targeted players in NE. Welker and Gronkowski will both be options 1 and 1A. Now you add in another talent like Hernandez to go along with Lloyd as options 3 and 3A. I just have an extremely hard time envisioning Lloyd as anything other than a fantasy WR3 in that offense. Dreaming of Moss likely numbers is just that. Dreaming.

Do you know how many times one team has had three 1000 yard receivers? To the best of my knowledge, it's happened once in the history of the league. Manning/Harrison/Wayne/Stokley. It was 2004, and Manning threw for almost 4600 yards and 49TDs. Nobody else on that team eclipsed 500 yards receiving.

To be honest, fantasy wise, I think NE is a terrible landing spot for Lloyd.

Since nobody else is going to call you out on this, your recollection is extremely poor. 1000 yards by 3 receivers has happened 5 times. The Colts were not even the most recent...My link

Thanks for the link. I stand corrected.However, that doesn't make the picture for Lloyd any rosier going forward if he ends up in NE. The fourth leading receiver on each of those teams had less than 500 yards. Does anyone really think Lloyd is going to come in and make Hernandez a guy that totals less than 500 yards? Honestly, I think Hernandez has a better chance of making that happen to Lloyd than vice versa.

Also look at the 3rd guy in each of those situations.

Breaston: 1006/3

Emmanuel: 1039/5

Stokley: 1077/10

Sanders: 1138/4

Joiner: 1132/4

Most of those guys would finish between WR18-30 on a typical year. (outside of Stokley) Not bad, but not exactly leading your team to a title either.

I'll stand by my assertion that Lloyd will be no better than a WR3 or WR4 if he goes to NE. He just won't get enough targets to do much better.

We get it, you've made up your mind.

Maybe you could enlighten me then with some of your own analysis. You've said he is talented and was the #1 WR in fantasy in 2010. That really is only marginally pertinent to how big of numbers he would put up in NE. I'll grant you he'll likely know the offense well, and that one couldn't ask for a better QB throwing the ball than Brady. What I fail to see is how he will get enough targets. Perhaps instead of a snarky comment, you could address that issue. I'll even provide some basics to work with:

There were 19 RB/WR/TE that had 1000 yards or more last year. 14 of them had more than 120 targets. Here are the other 5 with their targets and yards.

AJ Green 115 targets, 1057 yards

Vincent Jackson 114, 1106

Mike Wallace 113, 1193

Marques Colston 109, 1143

Jordy Nelson 95, 1263

Last two seasons for Brandon Lloyd:

2010: 153 targets 1448 yards.

2011: 150 targets 966 yards.

Last years targets for NE.

Welker 173

Gronk 124

Hernandez 113

Branch 90

Ocho 32

Woodhead 31

BJGE 13

Six others with less than 10.

One last thing. Tom Brady attempted 611 passes last season for 5235 yards. Both career highs. It's certainly possible he'll attempt that many passes again. If you look at Brady's last 4 full season's (including his 50TD 2007), his average attempts are 561 however. That is probably a much more reasonable projection.

We could sit here and project numbers all day long, and they don't really mean anything at all. Jason Wood made that point in his Mike McCarthy thread. We just don't know what will happen. What we do know is that Welker has gotten a ton of targets. Gronk has gotten a lot as well. What is interesting to me is that Branch got so many last season. I think Lloyd would get more than Branch based simply on the fact that he is a vastly better receiver than Branch at this stage in their careers. Do I want to pin a number on it? No.We were talking about upside before and I stand by my assertion that his upside is WR1 type of numbers. We don't know what injuries or opponents will do. Remember Lloyd got those numbers back in Denver when he was their top threat. On New England, he might be anywhere from the 1st to the 3rd best receivers. We haven't seen what he can do with a top QB yet since the lightbulb went on for him. To just assume that Welker and Gronkowski are going to get 300 targets between them is not something I am ready to do at all. We just don't know how that will shake out.

I agree that assuming Welker and Gronk will combine for 300 targets isn't a sound strategy. I think Welker in particular is very likely to lose a decent percentage of his targets next season. There's also no question that injuries could play a big factor. If any one of those four guys got hurt for an extended period, it would obviously help the others' numbers.

The reason I don't like Lloyd's chances in NE barring injury, is the other top 3 pass catchers are exceptional players. Welker has averaged150 targets/season since arriving in NE. He's been to 4 straight pro bowls. Gronkowski is coming off the best season ever posted by a TE. He's arguably the best red zone weapon in the league.

Hernandez was just listed as one of the top 5 choices in Jeter23's poll. He's obviously very gifted as well. Adding Lloyd will very likely hurt all of the pass catchers numbers, as there is only one ball.

Now if Lloyd were to go to a place like Chicago, where he's got a strong armed QB, and a realistic shot at 150 targets? That looks like a recipe for a WR1 to me. If I were a Lloyd owner, a situation like that is what I would be rooting for.

Obviously true. No chance IMO that Lloyd gets 150 targets in that offense.

We'll just have to see where he lands. We are talking like this is a done deal.

 

[David Yudkin]

We'll just have to see where he lands. We are talking like this is a done deal.

From what I can tell, this is all but a done deal.That being said, the more weapons that are utilizedon any team, the more they will all have to share the wealth. The question becomes . . . if there are more weapons does that mean each person will do a little better if there is more room to operate.If I were to guess, Lloyd will not put up the same numbers he did in Denver for the simply reason that he will not be the #1 guy by any stretch. The Broncos TEs had less than 30 receptions combined and there was not anyone else hitting 120 catches on the season.It cuts both ways, as another receiving threat will likely change how Gronk and Hernandez are utilized . . . and the routes Welker ran last year. Welker should still see his 100 catches, but he may not run the same somewhat deeper routes if Lloyd is around. We also don't know who else the Pats will have at WR, as that could also be a factor.Smart money would not have Gronk repeating last year's numbers to begin with, and adding Lloyd would be another reason to expect Gronk's insane totals to dip.Bottom line, the Pats are not going to end up having four guys with 1,000 receiving yards in a season, so the sum of the parts has to add up to a reasonable number.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Bottom line, the Pats are not going to end up having four guys with 1,000 receiving yards in a season, so the sum of the parts has to add up to a reasonable number.

The hard part is determining what reasonable means in todays NFL, where several QB's put up close to 5000+ yards in 2011. Is 4800 and 35 now a reasonable projection and not just an outlier?

 

[David Yudkin]

Bottom line, the Pats are not going to end up having four guys with 1,000 receiving yards in a season, so the sum of the parts has to add up to a reasonable number.

The hard part is determining what reasonable means in todays NFL, where several QB's put up close to 5000+ yards in 2011. Is 4800 and 35 now a reasonable projection and not just an outlier?

For the Pats, 4800/35 is reasonable. 6000/55 is likely not. We went through this last year, as people went nuts on their projections that could never have happened in a reasonably universe.

 

[Run It Up]

Im praying, that this never happens.

Im praying that NE will do everything it can to get VJax or Wallace.

Aside from obviously Branch and Ocho, I dont think bringing in a vet hurts anyone but Hernandez.

 

[Casting Couch]

Here are most of the QBs Lloyd has been receiving passes from over the years.

SF Tim Rattay

Washington Brunell Campbell

Chicago Orton

Denver Orton

STL Bradford

 

[Bad_Mo]

How much of a deep threat is Lloyd anyway? Pretty weak 40 time at his combine (4.63) but is he a guy that has gotten faster as he has aged?

I read an article from a Denver board which indicated that he actually was leading Wallace, D. Jackson, Knox, etc. in "air yards"...those are some pretty fast guys.

 

[Punch]

40 times are overrated. He has wheels but his main attributes are flypaper hands and elite body control.

 

[Run It Up]

40 times are overrated. He has wheels but his main attributes are flypaper hands and elite body control.

I dont think Brandon Lloyd and elite should be in the same sentence.

 

[The Comedian]

40 times are overrated. He has wheels but his main attributes are flypaper hands and elite body control.

I dont think Brandon Lloyd and elite should be in the same sentence.

With respect to his body control, it should be.I'm wary of this guy - he's a headcase. Just because he's behaved well the past couple of years doesn't change that.

 

[Black&Gold]

40 times are overrated. He has wheels but his main attributes are flypaper hands and elite body control.

I dont think Brandon Lloyd and elite should be in the same sentence.

With respect to his body control, it should be.I'm wary of this guy - he's a headcase. Just because he's behaved well the past couple of years doesn't change that.

As long as he's with McDaniels, I think he'll be fine. He feels very secure with him as his coach calling the shots. Anywhere else, all bets are off.

 

[David Yudkin]

As long as he's with McDaniels, I think he'll be fine. He feels very secure with him as his coach calling the shots. Anywhere else, all bets are off.

I think this works the other way as well. Lloyd has proven to have been successful working with McDaniels. Many people are suggesting that the Pats should be chasing Wallace / V-Jax / Colston, et al. But the Pats have already shown that it is difficult for receivers to grasp their system, making Lloyd a better option than the other guys.

 

[Casting Couch]

Free agent Brandon Lloyd has reportedly assured Patriots players his contract demands in New England will be "reasonable."

The players have in turn relayed that message to management. The Patriots are expected to target Lloyd "quickly," and the Boston Herald believes he's the most likely free agent to sign with the team on Tuesday. The Patriots appear to be the clear favorites to land Lloyd.

Source: Boston Herald

Mar 13 - 12:31 PM

 

[Boston]

As long as he's with McDaniels, I think he'll be fine. He feels very secure with him as his coach calling the shots. Anywhere else, all bets are off.

I think this works the other way as well. Lloyd has proven to have been successful working with McDaniels. Many people are suggesting that the Pats should be chasing Wallace / V-Jax / Colston, et al. But the Pats have already shown that it is difficult for receivers to grasp their system, making Lloyd a better option than the other guys.

Absolutely...the Pats can not affort to bring in a big ticket WR only to find out he doesn't understand what he's doing...they're far better off bringing in a Lloyd (and maybe another low-priced veteran like Cotchery or Parrish) at a reasonable price than using the rest of their cap space on the defensive-side of the ball...

 

[Boston]

Free agent Brandon Lloyd has reportedly assured Patriots players his contract demands in New England will be "reasonable."The players have in turn relayed that message to management. The Patriots are expected to target Lloyd "quickly," and the Boston Herald believes he's the most likely free agent to sign with the team on Tuesday. The Patriots appear to be the clear favorites to land Lloyd.Source: Boston HeraldMar 13 - 12:31 PM

I'm getting very nervous this won't happen because BB never does what you expect him to do...if Lloyd does sign it will be the easist transaction to predict since BB took over...

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Free agent Brandon Lloyd has reportedly assured Patriots players his contract demands in New England will be "reasonable."The players have in turn relayed that message to management. The Patriots are expected to target Lloyd "quickly," and the Boston Herald believes he's the most likely free agent to sign with the team on Tuesday. The Patriots appear to be the clear favorites to land Lloyd.Source: Boston HeraldMar 13 - 12:31 PM

I'm getting very nervous this won't happen because BB never does what you expect him to do...if Lloyd does sign it will be the easist transaction to predict since BB took over...

uh-ohhhh....ESPN's Adam Schefter reports free agent Brandon Lloyd will visit the 49ers.Lloyd received surprisingly little public interest Tuesday, sparking speculation that it was viewed as a foregone conclusion around the league that he would sign with the Patriots. Instead, he'll visit with a team still in need of upgrading and replenishing its receiver corps following the signing of Randy Moss and loss of Josh Morgan.

 

[Boston]

Free agent Brandon Lloyd has reportedly assured Patriots players his contract demands in New England will be "reasonable."The players have in turn relayed that message to management. The Patriots are expected to target Lloyd "quickly," and the Boston Herald believes he's the most likely free agent to sign with the team on Tuesday. The Patriots appear to be the clear favorites to land Lloyd.Source: Boston HeraldMar 13 - 12:31 PM

I'm getting very nervous this won't happen because BB never does what you expect him to do...if Lloyd does sign it will be the easist transaction to predict since BB took over...

uh-ohhhh....ESPN's Adam Schefter reports free agent Brandon Lloyd will visit the 49ers.Lloyd received surprisingly little public interest Tuesday, sparking speculation that it was viewed as a foregone conclusion around the league that he would sign with the Patriots. Instead, he'll visit with a team still in need of upgrading and replenishing its receiver corps following the signing of Randy Moss and loss of Josh Morgan.

Never fun being a Pats fan at the beginning of free agency because you just have no clue (good or bad) what they are doing...

 

[ShadowMaster]

He would have made that catch Welker dropped in the 4th.

Like this?

If I had the time, I could link a dozen catches that Lloyd has made that only a few guys in the league are capable of. Here's one;

15 yards for LowDef - that hurt my eyes!

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Boston Globe: Pats close to locking up WR Lloyd

A league source tells the Boston Globe free agent Brandon Lloyd is "close" to signing with the Patriots.

Lloyd has done his best to increase his leverage since the start of free agency Tuesday, but has made little secret of his desire to end up in New England. He wouldn't be quite the vertical home run threat the Pats appeared in dire need of at times last season, but would perfectly complement Wes Welker's dominant slot game with one of the league's better outside-the-numbers skillsets.

 

[The Comedian]

Adam Schefter ‏ @AdamSchefterAnd there's a second wideout added: Patriots have reached agreement with free-agent wide receiver Brandon Lloyd.

 

[Donnybrook]

I imagine Ocho or Branch will get cut later on.

 

[The Comedian]

Gotta be Ocho.

 

[Workhorse]

3 years, 12 million.

Sweet for the Pats.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Ocho is done, maybe re-signs with Cinny for a cheap deal.

 

[HAM]

Branch will be odd man out. Truth.

Love the Lloyd signing as a pats fan.

 

[The Captain]

Bump Brady.

 

[Sabertooth]

Boston Globe: Pats close to locking up WR LloydA league source tells the Boston Globe free agent Brandon Lloyd is "close" to signing with the Patriots.Lloyd has done his best to increase his leverage since the start of free agency Tuesday, but has made little secret of his desire to end up in New England. He wouldn't be quite the vertical home run threat the Pats appeared in dire need of at times last season, but would perfectly complement Wes Welker's dominant slot game with one of the league's better outside-the-numbers skillsets.

Looks like it's officialhttp://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/eye-on-football/17871705/report-patriots-reach-agreement-with-brandon-lloyd

 

[Sabertooth]

Lots of good discussion in the other thread.

 

[GroveDiesel]

And that's what winning does for you. That deal makes the deals for Laurent Robinson, Pierre Garçon, etc. look downright silly. Nobody else could have gotten that deal from Lloyd. But he wanted to play with Brady, McDaniels and the Pats.

Everyone makes a big deal about how the Pats always sit back and wait in free agency. Part of that is because some of those free agents go to New England instead of New England having to go to them.

 

[DesmondBishop]

I would easily take Lloyd over, L Robinson, E Royal or R Meachem, all of whom signed bigger contracts, I think that is a great sign for Pats. He is willing to take less to play there, I think he has a very good year, my very early prediction is, 70/1150/10, I think he does that with 100-115 targets.

He finally gets a great QB that has pin point accuracy, it will only help his numbers. Someone was talking early about his speed or lack of, 2 years ago he led the entire NFL in yards and was up there in YPC (Almost 19) and was first in spectacular catches.

Here is a great highlight reel of catches from Lloyd:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnvyQuLPKDM

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Awesome landing spot for Lloyd, great for Brady, all else is just speculation.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I would easily take Lloyd over, L Robinson, E Royal or R Meachem, all of whom signed bigger contracts, I think that is a great sign for Pats. He is willing to take less to play there, I think he has a very good year, my very early prediction is, 70/1150/10, I think he does that with 100-115 targets.

He finally gets a great QB that has pin point accuracy, it will only help his numbers. Someone was talking early about his speed or lack of, 2 years ago he led the entire NFL in yards and was up there in YPC (Almost 19) and was first in spectacular catches.

Here is a great highlight reel of catches from Lloyd:

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=VnvyQuLPKDM

Have never seen you in here b4 buddy but I agree whole heartedly with your post. New England was weak a couple hers ago and they managed a trip to the SB while they are rebuilding...just an awesome talent to add a tremendous organization in terms of leadership. Yeah, I'm all in on Brandon Lloyd, he's gonna flourish the next couple years.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Another good Lloyd highlight: lloyd

 

[thatguy]

I think this is a great signing for the Pats, but as a Lloyd fantasy owner I am tempering my expectations. There are so many mouths to feed in New England and only so many balls to go around. With Welker in town for at least another year, I think realistically we can expect 65-70, 900-1000, 4-7 from Lloyd. Solid numbers, and very important from the pats perspective, but not spectacular from a fantasy perspective--even on the high end (70-1000-7) you're looking at a mid to low level WR2. I could be wrong. He could become the focal point of that offense, but I wouldn't bank on it.

 

[cobalt_27]

I think this is a great signing for the Pats, but as a Lloyd fantasy owner I am tempering my expectations. There are so many mouths to feed in New England and only so many balls to go around. With Welker in town for at least another year, I think realistically we can expect 65-70, 900-1000, 4-7 from Lloyd. Solid numbers, and very important from the pats perspective, but not spectacular from a fantasy perspective--even on the high end (70-1000-7) you're looking at a mid to low level WR2. I could be wrong. He could become the focal point of that offense, but I wouldn't bank on it.

I'm a Lloyd owner, and I want to be super excited about this, but I'm not. On paper, it looks great at first. But, unless they go away from what works and devise a whole new system, I just see a slightly more efficient Branch here. 65/1000/6 tops. I'd sell.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So was Ocho cut?

 

[Ron_Mexico]

As a Patriots fan, the money and the talent is a WIN WIN.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think this is a great signing for the Pats, but as a Lloyd fantasy owner I am tempering my expectations. There are so many mouths to feed in New England and only so many balls to go around. With Welker in town for at least another year, I think realistically we can expect 65-70, 900-1000, 4-7 from Lloyd. Solid numbers, and very important from the pats perspective, but not spectacular from a fantasy perspective--even on the high end (70-1000-7) you're looking at a mid to low level WR2. I could be wrong. He could become the focal point of that offense, but I wouldn't bank on it.

I'm a Lloyd owner, and I want to be super excited about this, but I'm not. On paper, it looks great at first. But, unless they go away from what works and devise a whole new system, I just see a slightly more efficient Branch here. 65/1000/6 tops. I'd sell.

I agree it might be a good time to sell...it also might be good time to hang on an enjoy the ride. I could not have been the only person that saw some of those amazing receptions this guy has mad the last couple of years. Wait a minute...isnt McDaniels the former Denver head coach now back with NE? I think the guy has a pretty good idea how to use him and Brady might fall in love all over again with a new receiver. I can buy 60/850/5-6I can also buy 90/1,300/10 TDI liken Lloyd a bit to Irving Fryar who some might remember and also was a late bloomer until he hooked up with a guy named Dan Marino. This is potential TNT in a bottle let's be honest. Time is running out on guys like Brady and the time to go all in is now.