So last year, Joe T and a bunch of other guys said Evans was over-rated when he was being drafted somewhere around WR 25. He ended up easily a top-10 guy. This year, despite no real reason to project a dropoff (if anything, the other direction makes some sense as he and Lossman build chemistry and there are some improvements to the line), he is usually getting drafted outside of the top 10 (WR) and people STILL call him over-rated, ostensibly because of his "inconsistency".People seem to hate "inconsistent" WRs. They say "Man, I can't afford those ups and downs. The big weeks are great, but too many big disappointments kill a season."OK, so who are these "consistent" receivers?Bottom line? Such an animal is a lot like the unicorn - really nice in theory, but imaginary.Note The following stats are based on a league report from a league with "standard" scoring (.1 pt/yard, 6 pt TDs, no PPR) no PPR. Only "unusual scoring" is a deduction for lost fumbles.I looked at the big complaint about "inconsistent" receivers - total bust weeks. Somewhat arbitrarily, I chose 5 pts or less as a "bust" week. Generally, you want more than that from your starting receivers. If you don't like the cutoff, pick your own - you'll find similar results. So who had them, and who didn't?The top scoring WR from last year (these rankings are all PPG) was "Mr Consistency" Marvin Harrison. He had three weeks where he scored less than 5. He had a 3.8, 2.1, and a .8 (lower than any game by Evans). All in the middle of the season.Steve Smith was #2. While he only had one game below the 5 pt threshold it was a negative point day in our league because of a fumble. He also missed two games because of injury and had several games that just cleared the arbitrary 5 point cutoff. All in all, FAIRLY consistent last year, but certainly not PERFECTLY consistent and he is one of the top picks every year.Owens was #3. 3 games below 5 points. Pretty consistent down the stretch, but still 3 games.Darrell Jackson had 2 of his 13 games played under 5. Not horrible, but I certainly wouldn't label him consistent with his injury history.Housh missed two games and had 3 under 5 points, including most leagues' superbowl week. Ouch.Driver is known as an underrated and fairly consistent WR. 4 games under 5.Chad Johnson, a nearly universal top 3 dynasty WR pick, had 4 games under 5 INCLUDING week 15 last year.The HORRIBLY inconsistent Evans, had 4 games under 5 last year. Only one in the second half of the season (a borderline 4.5 in week 13).Torry "Big Game" Holt, also had 4 games under 5 pts and two more under 6 (including week 15). Hmmmm. I thought for sure Holt would be one of the "consistent" receivers.Javon Walker had 3 under 5 and several squeakers.Colston had 4 games under 5. Not bad for a rookie, but even in a remarkable season, he wasn't very "consistent".Everybody loves Roy Williams, but he had 5 stinkers last year, including THREE IN A ROW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PLAYOFFS. Yikes.Burress had 4 stinkers.Larry Fitzgerald was the one guy you MIGHT be able to call consistent last year with a straight face. He did miss three games, but when he played, he only had one stinker and one close call. But, he is rated the #1 dynasty WR for a reason. I'd also note that in 2005, his best year, he had 3 stinkers (pretty much like everybody else).Ward, another noted model of consistency, had 4 stinkers in 14 games.Horn had 4 in 10.Galloway had 5, including 2 games with zero points.Coles had SEVEN games under 5 and you don't nearly as many guys complain about his inconsistency than Evans'.Boldin, another guy generally considered consistent (at least before 2006) had 4 stinkers and quite a few close calls.Andre Johnson was also in the 4 stinker club - 4 of his last 5 games in fact. THAT didn't help in the playoffs.So there you have the top 21 PPG last year (evans plus 20 more). Where are the consistent receivers? The vast majority of the really good receivers in the game had 4 or more really bad games.The point is, FORGET "consistency". It's a myth. Some guys get the rep, some don't, but they ALL have their ups and downs. Even if a guy does have a year where it just happens he doesn't end up with a couple of really low games, even THAT can't be projected to following years.I'm not saying that some guys aren't a LITTLE more reliable than others. I'm saying that factor is WAY overblown and isn't "consistently" (pun intended) applied when evaluating talented receivers. Aside from Evans, I made the same case in preseason 2005 when people called Santana Moss "inconsistent". I said forget consistency, the guy is talented and has opportunity, go get him on the cheap. He turned out to be THE most consistent (week to week) receiver in the game that year. Go figure.
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