Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

[No Way Jose]

I don't see where the risk is, it's not like you have to draft him in the first round or 2. You can easily get him in late 5th early 6th in most leagues. That sounds like value to me. Obviously he will regress back to the mean, but if he can put up at least wr 3 points there is no gamble. He can regress and still be wr1 or 2 for you. At his current ADP I think it's worth the gamble that he maintains his pace from last year since the worst that could happen is he produces wr3 numbers(which a 6th rd wr should).

 

[az_prof]

I am going out on a limb and claiming that last year was Lloyd's career year. This year? He has a new coach who loves to run the ball. More than likely, a new QB, who may or may not favor him as much as Orton. And you have Decker a year older and more mature.

I think he will be productive, but people who draft him hoping to get anywhere near last year's numbers will be disappointed. He's a tough player to project. Anyone who has a reasonable point of view has to know that last year is an outlier. But the question is: how much do we downgrade his career year? 10% 20% 30??? I am going with 25%.

1086 yards, 67 receptions,16 ypc, 7 Tds.

He's no spring chicken at 30 years of age. New HC. New QB. Decline closer to Norm. Good, but not a great WR who overperformed last season.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

It appears that Orton has the starting job locked down. That combined with Lammey's tweets in the Broncos thread raving about his performance thus far in camp leads me to believe that last year was no fluke and that he is severely undervalued at current ADP. He's a potential top 10 WR currently being drafted as a WR2. Sign me up!

 

[Sabertooth]

It appears that Orton has the starting job locked down. That combined with Lammey's tweets in the Broncos thread raving about his performance thus far in camp leads me to believe that last year was no fluke and that he is severely undervalued at current ADP. He's a potential top 10 WR currently being drafted as a WR2. Sign me up!

He's a potential #1 WR overall. Note also that he has the same offensive coordinator as last year. I'm going to lock him down in every league I can.

 

[SSOG]

The thing people lose sight of when looking at Brandon Lloyd's disappointing first seven seasons is that people didn't really question Lloyd's talent. They questioned his head, they questioned his maturity, they questioned whether he'd ever put it all together. And through seven seasons, it looked like he would not wind up putting it all together- that he'd just be another inconsistent, immature receiver who wasted his prodigious talent. Well, based on last year, it looks like we were premature. He certainly seems to have put it all together. Listening to his interviews, it seems that when he got cut from Chicago it really clicked with him that he was on his last chance and he needed to get serious. Listening to how his approach to the game changed, it really seems like he's now coming from a completely different place and taking his craft much more seriously. And the results on the field last year speak for themselves. Lloyd is as talented as we always thought he was, and now he's as dedicated as he should have been in the first place.

Also, Brandon Lloyd's career to this point is nearly unprecedented. NEARLY unprecedented, but not ENTIRELY unprecedented. I can think of another WR who bounced around the league for his first seven seasons, signing with Denver as his 3rd team in 3 years, and failed to crack the top 30 a single time during that span... only to suddenly explode into fantasy relevance. Ed McCaffrey ranked 110th, 31st, 72nd, 90th, 68th, 44th, and 33rd in his first 7 seasons before putting up an 11th place finish in 1998. McCaffrey followed that up with a 19th and 8th place finish in the next two years before breaking his leg in game 1 of 2001. And he put up those 19th and 8th place finishes after Elway retired, to boot.

Every player is obviously unique, and just because Ed McCaffrey wasn't a flash in the pan doesn't mean that Brandon Lloyd won't be a flash in the pan. I'm just pointing out that it's not like there's no precedent out there for a WR to bounce around without any success for years before finally exploding on the scene and remaining relevant.

75/1200/8

 

[gianmarco]

Welcome back, SSOG.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

The thing people lose sight of when looking at Brandon Lloyd's disappointing first seven seasons is that people didn't really question Lloyd's talent. They questioned his head, they questioned his maturity, they questioned whether he'd ever put it all together. And through seven seasons, it looked like he would not wind up putting it all together- that he'd just be another inconsistent, immature receiver who wasted his prodigious talent. Well, based on last year, it looks like we were premature. He certainly seems to have put it all together. Listening to his interviews, it seems that when he got cut from Chicago it really clicked with him that he was on his last chance and he needed to get serious. Listening to how his approach to the game changed, it really seems like he's now coming from a completely different place and taking his craft much more seriously. And the results on the field last year speak for themselves. Lloyd is as talented as we always thought he was, and now he's as dedicated as he should have been in the first place.Also, Brandon Lloyd's career to this point is nearly unprecedented. NEARLY unprecedented, but not ENTIRELY unprecedented. I can think of another WR who bounced around the league for his first seven seasons, signing with Denver as his 3rd team in 3 years, and failed to crack the top 30 a single time during that span... only to suddenly explode into fantasy relevance. Ed McCaffrey ranked 110th, 31st, 72nd, 90th, 68th, 44th, and 33rd in his first 7 seasons before putting up an 11th place finish in 1998. McCaffrey followed that up with a 19th and 8th place finish in the next two years before breaking his leg in game 1 of 2001. And he put up those 19th and 8th place finishes after Elway retired, to boot.Every player is obviously unique, and just because Ed McCaffrey wasn't a flash in the pan doesn't mean that Brandon Lloyd won't be a flash in the pan. I'm just pointing out that it's not like there's no precedent out there for a WR to bounce around without any success for years before finally exploding on the scene and remaining relevant.75/1200/8

Could not agree more.... http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=587939&st=0&p=13022417&fromsearch=1entry13022417

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It appears that Orton has the starting job locked down. That combined with Lammey's tweets in the Broncos thread raving about his performance thus far in camp leads me to believe that last year was no fluke and that he is severely undervalued at current ADP. He's a potential top 10 WR currently being drafted as a WR2. Sign me up!

Wow, guy does nada his entire career, been with 2-3 other teams and he has a career year, now top10? I feel like I ahve at least 20 WRs maybe 30 that I would rather have before I would even look at him. We have seen so many WRs have career years...Yancy Thigpen, Rob Moore, Marcus Robertson...let's not lose perspective here. Steve Smith is eons better in the talent department and under Fox he did alright but to project out Lloyds for that type of production seems a bit much for me.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Patrick Jeffers, Michael Clayton, Drew Bennett, David Boston...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Germane Crowell

 

[Sabertooth]

Wow, guy does nada his entire career, been with 2-3 other teams and he has a career year, now top10? I feel like I ahve at least 20 WRs maybe 30 that I would rather have before I would even look at him. We have seen so many WRs have career years...Yancy Thigpen, Rob Moore, Marcus Robertson...let's not lose perspective here. Steve Smith is eons better in the talent department and under Fox he did alright but to project out Lloyds for that type of production seems a bit much for me.

He was number 1 last season in my PPR. So yeah, I'd say he has the potential. Your posts normally hold water, but not this one.

 

[chitlins3]

Germane Crowell

MOP - what do most of the guys you mentioned have in common, as in what happened to them the year after their career year?Not sure why you mentioned Moore with these guys either, he had a really good career outside his one career year, he's still in the top 50 all time in both receptions and yardage.

 

[Sabertooth]

Germane Crowell

MOP - what do most of the guys you mentioned have in common, as in what happened to them the year after their career year?Not sure why you mentioned Moore with these guys either, he had a really good career outside his one career year, he's still in the top 50 all time in both receptions and yardage.

I know

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Antonio Bryant

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I hear what you all are saying and I appreciate the props on other stuff I post Saber. There are so many WRs I just don't see why we want to make a shark move to go get a guy with a 1 year track record and an offensive challenged HC. Again, I'm sure the SP is right and I will just miss out on this gift in th 5th round.

'96 Michael Jackson 1200/14

 

[Sabertooth]

How many of the guys you posted were the #1 guy the year before? Muhsin Muhammed is the most obvious one.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How many of the guys you posted were the #1 guy the year before? Muhsin Muhammed is the most obvious one.

Let's look at it another way, last year they had an offensive scheme with JM and I think he was the OC in NE when Moss had his career year but I might have to look that up...hold on...yep he sure was. Gaffney is gone and whether you buy into him or not there really isn't much left at WR2/TE/RB1/RB2 to make defenses stay on ther toes. I would double cover Lloyd if need be as a DC and take my chances. I just don't see where Lloyd can produce the same as he did last year. Lot of very talented WRs had off years last year like Fitz and a top10 performance again for Lloyd seems lik a pipedream to me.

 

[baconisgood]

I partially agree with MOP. A lot of the guys he named ended up collapsing in production due to injuries but the fact that he only has 1 NFL season under his belt without getting injured means he is less safe than a guy who is healthy coming into training camp after 5 years of demonstrating he can handle 100+ targets a year. Sure its not a brutal as RB or TE but plenty of WRs go down with injuries.

On the other hand if he hangs out at WR#19 for much longer he will end up a couple of my teams. I don't think there is a guy after him (Holmes maybe) that I would rather have.

 

[Sabertooth]

I partially agree with MOP. A lot of the guys he named ended up collapsing in production due to injuries but the fact that he only has 1 NFL season under his belt without getting injured means he is less safe than a guy who is healthy coming into training camp after 5 years of demonstrating he can handle 100+ targets a year. Sure its not a brutal as RB or TE but plenty of WRs go down with injuries.

On the other hand if he hangs out at WR#19 for much longer he will end up a couple of my teams. I don't think there is a guy after him (Holmes maybe) that I would rather have.

This is the point. I'm not saying to pick him in the top 10.

 

[DaMenace18]

I partially agree with MOP. A lot of the guys he named ended up collapsing in production due to injuries but the fact that he only has 1 NFL season under his belt without getting injured means he is less safe than a guy who is healthy coming into training camp after 5 years of demonstrating he can handle 100+ targets a year. Sure its not a brutal as RB or TE but plenty of WRs go down with injuries.On the other hand if he hangs out at WR#19 for much longer he will end up a couple of my teams. I don't think there is a guy after him (Holmes maybe) that I would rather have.

Are you talking in terms of a ppr league?

 

[baconisgood]

I partially agree with MOP. A lot of the guys he named ended up collapsing in production due to injuries but the fact that he only has 1 NFL season under his belt without getting injured means he is less safe than a guy who is healthy coming into training camp after 5 years of demonstrating he can handle 100+ targets a year. Sure its not a brutal as RB or TE but plenty of WRs go down with injuries.On the other hand if he hangs out at WR#19 for much longer he will end up a couple of my teams. I don't think there is a guy after him (Holmes maybe) that I would rather have.

Are you talking in terms of a ppr league?

I was talking non-ppr

 

[rct]

He can't do it again, see Yancy Thigpen, Patrick Jeffers, Germaine Crowell, bla, bla, bla.

There are rules and there are exceptions to rules. Many here look at Lloyd and see a fluke flash-in-the-pan, but I see a player who late in his career finally lived up to his potential. This is one case where I think the conventional wisdom or the smart money will be proven to be wrong.

And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

 

[bolldpt]

I have him pegged at 14 or so in my rankings. What is interesting is his recent quotes about "the Tebow Thing". Doesnt sound very endearing to Tim. Word out of camp is Orton looks good and will keep Tim on the sidelines. There sure is alot of uncertainty with the whole situation. Depends how well you like the ride.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I partially agree with MOP. A lot of the guys he named ended up collapsing in production due to injuries but the fact that he only has 1 NFL season under his belt without getting injured means he is less safe than a guy who is healthy coming into training camp after 5 years of demonstrating he can handle 100+ targets a year. Sure its not a brutal as RB or TE but plenty of WRs go down with injuries.On the other hand if he hangs out at WR#19 for much longer he will end up a couple of my teams. I don't think there is a guy after him (Holmes maybe) that I would rather have.

If you gys are targeting him WR 18-20 off the board, fine. I can understand, he just gives me the heebie jeebies and typically when I get lke this such as when TJ Housh went for 1,100/12TD a few years back and folks were liningup to grab him in dynasty and then the bottom started to fall out. He was 30 when he posted his career year. He had some other solid years but he was in a system with Palmer, Ocho, and Chris Henry...where is Denver right now?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He can't do it again, see Yancy Thigpen, Patrick Jeffers, Germaine Crowell, bla, bla, bla. There are rules and there are exceptions to rules. Many here look at Lloyd and see a fluke flash-in-the-pan, but I see a player who late in his career finally lived up to his potential. This is one case where I think the conventional wisdom or the smart money will be proven to be wrong.And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

Hi rude classless thug,Could you name a few WRs that didn't hit their stride until 30 and then went on to flourish? I'm not being funnny, I listed a lot of 1 year wonders over the last 10-20 years, would like to see where Lloyd can be compared to other WRs who have lived up to their potential at WR late in their career. I can't think of very many so I would like ot see what others are comparing him to.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Is anyone surprised I am posting this? Do I really sound crazy in trying to caution folks here? I am a bit conservative by nature but are people really amazed that folks would NOT be on the Lloyd bandwagon?

In dynasty a buddy of mine used Lloyd, 2011 1st, and a 2012 1st to get Julio Jones. I like that a lot better than Lloyd and whatever he would have drafted at the 1.10 and likely 1.10 or higher in 2012 based on his healthy team he already has.

Anyone that knows me should know that I put a lot of stock in track records and when a guy flounders for years and suddenly has a big season, my radar goes up as a possible landmine in redrafts the following season.

 

[rct]

He can't do it again, see Yancy Thigpen, Patrick Jeffers, Germaine Crowell, bla, bla, bla. There are rules and there are exceptions to rules. Many here look at Lloyd and see a fluke flash-in-the-pan, but I see a player who late in his career finally lived up to his potential. This is one case where I think the conventional wisdom or the smart money will be proven to be wrong.And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

Hi rude classless thug,Could you name a few WRs that didn't hit their stride until 30 and then went on to flourish? I'm not being funnny, I listed a lot of 1 year wonders over the last 10-20 years, would like to see where Lloyd can be compared to other WRs who have lived up to their potential at WR late in their career. I can't think of very many so I would like ot see what others are comparing him to.

IMO he is the exception to the rule and he stands out to me in that respect. This is an intuitive play for me, and because of that, in this situation I find past examples irrelevant. According to statistics and trends you are probably right, but I think he will prove the conventional wisdom wrong.

 

[baconisgood]

And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

The proper equation isn't 1st downs to receptions its first downs to targets.

 

[We Tigers]

Is anyone surprised I am posting this? Do I really sound crazy in trying to caution folks here? I am a bit conservative by nature but are people really amazed that folks would NOT be on the Lloyd bandwagon?In dynasty a buddy of mine used Lloyd, 2011 1st, and a 2012 1st to get Julio Jones. I like that a lot better than Lloyd and whatever he would have drafted at the 1.10 and likely 1.10 or higher in 2012 based on his healthy team he already has. Anyone that knows me should know that I put a lot of stock in track records and when a guy flounders for years and suddenly has a big season, my radar goes up as a possible landmine in redrafts the following season.

No, but it might seem like a mild overreaction since it seems most folks have already factored the oddity of his success into their evaluation. He's coming off WR19 now according to composite ADP, and that's not really an awful spot. If Orton stays, I can definitely see him having another good year. Not a 1400/11 year again, but a pretty good one. I'd still rather have Santonio Holmes at the same price myself.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

IMO he is the exception to the rule and he stands out to me in that respect. This is an intuitive play for me, and because of that, in this situation I find past examples irrelevant. According to statistics and trends you are probably right, but I think he will prove the conventional wisdom wrong.

We're talking a leap of faith here but I absolutely apprciate you beng candid and honest about it instead of trying to mak up stats. So you have a gut feeling that he is going to make 11 other owners in the league feel sorry they all passed on him in the 4th and 5th round as you collect your gold in the 6th. Having confidence in your own player analysis is great and sometimes we are all guilty of being influenced by the opinions of others. I still think Lloyd could be a sucker move for many though. The good thing though is we are talking about a WR and not someone in the 1st 3 rounds. If he whiffs a lot of owners should have other WRs on the roster to pick up the slack. It's not as bad as an RB1 playing like an RB3. This thread is going to get bumped a lot in season you can be sure of it.

 

[Sabertooth]

He can't do it again, see Yancy Thigpen, Patrick Jeffers, Germaine Crowell, bla, bla, bla. There are rules and there are exceptions to rules. Many here look at Lloyd and see a fluke flash-in-the-pan, but I see a player who late in his career finally lived up to his potential. This is one case where I think the conventional wisdom or the smart money will be proven to be wrong.And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

McDaniels is gone, but the OC Mike McCoy is still there. The system is unchanged and Orton is looking sharp.

 

[Sabertooth]

He can't do it again, see Yancy Thigpen, Patrick Jeffers, Germaine Crowell, bla, bla, bla. There are rules and there are exceptions to rules. Many here look at Lloyd and see a fluke flash-in-the-pan, but I see a player who late in his career finally lived up to his potential. This is one case where I think the conventional wisdom or the smart money will be proven to be wrong.And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

Hi rude classless thug,Could you name a few WRs that didn't hit their stride until 30 and then went on to flourish? I'm not being funnny, I listed a lot of 1 year wonders over the last 10-20 years, would like to see where Lloyd can be compared to other WRs who have lived up to their potential at WR late in their career. I can't think of very many so I would like ot see what others are comparing him to.

Donald Driver. Ed McCaffrey has been mentioned. Rod Smith was 27 before he caught more than 16 receptions in a season. I don't have a lot of time right now but those are off the top of my head.

 

[SSOG]

I partially agree with MOP. A lot of the guys he named ended up collapsing in production due to injuries but the fact that he only has 1 NFL season under his belt without getting injured means he is less safe than a guy who is healthy coming into training camp after 5 years of demonstrating he can handle 100+ targets a year. Sure its not a brutal as RB or TE but plenty of WRs go down with injuries.On the other hand if he hangs out at WR#19 for much longer he will end up a couple of my teams. I don't think there is a guy after him (Holmes maybe) that I would rather have.

If you gys are targeting him WR 18-20 off the board, fine. I can understand, he just gives me the heebie jeebies and typically when I get lke this such as when TJ Housh went for 1,100/12TD a few years back and folks were liningup to grab him in dynasty and then the bottom started to fall out. He was 30 when he posted his career year. He had some other solid years but he was in a system with Palmer, Ocho, and Chris Henry...where is Denver right now?

Housh had finished 14th, 11th, and 7th in the three previous seasons when everyone was lining up to get him. It's comparing apples to dump trucks.Also, listing a bunch of 1-year wonders really isn't a very compelling argument. As a counter-argument, would you like me to list a bunch of "1-year wonders" (in other words, guys who had an unconventional pre-breakout career, were labeled as "1 year wonders", and then went on to prove everyone wrong)? I've already mentioned McCaffrey. I should probably also include Rod Smith (UDFA) in that list. How about Reggie Wayne? I remember a lot of talk about how he was a 1-year wonder who benefited from Manning's surreal 2004 season. Joe Horn was the ultimate "1 year wonder"- guy was a nobody in his first 4 seasons, then a perennial WR1 for the next 5 years. What about Steve Smith, the guy whose mantle you've mentioned Lloyd will be taking? Surely you remember all the talk back before 2004 and 2005 about how Smith's 2003 season was a fluke and how he was too short to amount to anything. How about Tim Brown? Or perhaps the best example yet, how about Drew Hill? He averaged 270 yards and 2 TDs in his first 5 seasons. Then he went for 1169/9 in year 6. One year wonder? Far from it- over the next six years, he averaged 1050/6.Do any of these guys prove Lloyd isn't a one-year wonder? Of course not, just like none of your guys prove he is. All they prove is that anecdotal evidence cuts both ways, and that while selective memory might make it seem like everyone who burst onto the scene unexpectedly wound up being a flash in the pan, the reality is quite the opposite.Edit: can't believe I forgot Jimmy Smith. He had less than 300 receiving yards through the first 4 years of his career, then went on to finish in the top 20 in career receptions and yards.Cris Carter is a lesser example, too. Finished 117th, 28th, 23rd, 65th, 17th, 20th in his first 6 years. Developed a reputation as a solid second-tier guy. Then finished 5th, 10th, 4th, 7th, 4th, 7th, 3rd over the next 7 years. Ellard had a career high of 811 receiving yards through his first 5 years... then broke out for 86/1414/10 for a #1 finish. He finished 6th the next year (despite missing two games), and 4th the year after.

 

[chitlins3]

He can't do it again, see Yancy Thigpen, Patrick Jeffers, Germaine Crowell, bla, bla, bla. There are rules and there are exceptions to rules. Many here look at Lloyd and see a fluke flash-in-the-pan, but I see a player who late in his career finally lived up to his potential. This is one case where I think the conventional wisdom or the smart money will be proven to be wrong.And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

Hi rude classless thug,Could you name a few WRs that didn't hit their stride until 30 and then went on to flourish? I'm not being funnny, I listed a lot of 1 year wonders over the last 10-20 years, would like to see where Lloyd can be compared to other WRs who have lived up to their potential at WR late in their career. I can't think of very many so I would like ot see what others are comparing him to.

Donald Driver. Ed McCaffrey has been mentioned. Rod Smith was 27 before he caught more than 16 receptions in a season. I don't have a lot of time right now but those are off the top of my head.

Lloyd was 29 when he broke out, not 30. Irving Fryar is the captain of the late career surge. Tony Martin did nothing until he went to San Diego when he was 29, he then had 6 good years in a row. Joe Horn did nothing until he went to the Saints at 28. Cris Carter did not have a 1,000 yard season until he was 28 and in his 7th year. Tim Brown broke out in his 6th season at 27. Jimmy Smith only had 22 career catches at 27, then had 10 1,000 yard seasons. Terrence Mathis broke out at 27. Henry Ellard's first 5 seasons he was a punt returner and meh WR, then starting at age 27, he finished WR1, WR6 and WR4, and had several other good years after that, including finishing WR8 at 33. Jake Reed never caught more than 6 balls in a season before he turned 27, then had 4 straight 1,100+ yard seasons. Drew Hill may be the guy Lloyd owners hope he turns into. Hill's first 5 years he did not finish higher than WR 56. However, starting at age 29, he finished 4th, 14th, 7th, 6th, 19th, 13th and 14th.Doh, SSOG beat me to a bunch of these. Nice job!

 

[finito]

Great post SSOG.

 

[rct]

And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

The proper equation isn't 1st downs to receptions its first downs to targets.

Yeah, yeah, I know that is the benchmark that most people use...but don't you think it just a little bit impressive that a player makes 72 first downs out of 77 catches? Only 5 of his catches did not result in a first down. Perhaps this stat is not that important, but I don't recall ever seeing any player with over 70 catches in which over 90% of them resulted in a first down.

 

[SSOG]

And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

The proper equation isn't 1st downs to receptions its first downs to targets.

Yeah, yeah, I know that is the benchmark that most people use...but don't you think it just a little bit impressive that a player makes 72 first downs out of 77 catches? Only 5 of his catches did not result in a first down. Perhaps this stat is not that important, but I don't recall ever seeing any player with over 70 catches in which over 90% of them resulted in a first down.

A lot of it is just usage. Brandon Lloyd is a fast receiver with a huge YPC who doesn't get used often on screens. Find other receivers who match that description, and you'll see similar stats. Maybe not quite 90+%- you're right that that's crazy high- but still high.For instance, since 2002, if you combine all of Plaxico Burress's, Santonio Holmes's, and Mike Wallace's stats for the Steelers, they have 399 first downs on 507 catches, good for 78.7%. That's because the role Pittsburgh has given those WRs hasn't called for them to be running many routes short of the sticks. Devery Henderson has also had some good seasons for FD%, although he hasn't had enough total catches to qualify (for example, one year he caught 28 first downs on 32 catches). Doug Gabriel was 63 on 76 for his career with the Raiders.This isn't to say that Lloyd wasn't incredible last season. It's just to say that his FD% number had far more to do with his usage than with his incredibleness. Lots of deep passes. Very, very few screens.

 

[DAMAC3]

I took Lloyd at 7.01 (25th WR overall) in a PPR Dynasty startup. I was pleased. He is my 4th WR (Andre, Tampa Mike, Stevie J) . WR's taken before him include Collie, Crabtree, Colston, and Marshall. I think all of those WR's have just as much risk associated with them. I doubt he will put up 1400 yards and double digit touchdowns, but the WR 25 in this league scoring system last year would have been 77-782-4 (Davone Bess). I am confident that he will outperform those numbers and his draft position.

Lloyd will be a low-end WR 1 to mid WR 2 for a high WR 3 price in most cases. Everyone thinks Orton is going to QB for Denver for the year now, so I imagine Lloyd will move up to where he should be drafted (avg WR 2). Those who drafted him at a good value will probably be satisfied.

 

[rct]

And for those who like factoids, one does jump out at me from last season. He had 77 catches, of those 72 were for first downs. Talk about a clutch player - everyone knew Orton was going to go to him to move the chains and still he did it 72 out of 77 times. His numbers will be down from not being in a McDaniels offense, but Orton will still be throwing him the ball, so he should do fine.

The proper equation isn't 1st downs to receptions its first downs to targets.

Yeah, yeah, I know that is the benchmark that most people use...but don't you think it just a little bit impressive that a player makes 72 first downs out of 77 catches? Only 5 of his catches did not result in a first down. Perhaps this stat is not that important, but I don't recall ever seeing any player with over 70 catches in which over 90% of them resulted in a first down.

A lot of it is just usage. Brandon Lloyd is a fast receiver with a huge YPC who doesn't get used often on screens. Find other receivers who match that description, and you'll see similar stats. Maybe not quite 90+%- you're right that that's crazy high- but still high.For instance, since 2002, if you combine all of Plaxico Burress's, Santonio Holmes's, and Mike Wallace's stats for the Steelers, they have 399 first downs on 507 catches, good for 78.7%. That's because the role Pittsburgh has given those WRs hasn't called for them to be running many routes short of the sticks. Devery Henderson has also had some good seasons for FD%, although he hasn't had enough total catches to qualify (for example, one year he caught 28 first downs on 32 catches). Doug Gabriel was 63 on 76 for his career with the Raiders.This isn't to say that Lloyd wasn't incredible last season. It's just to say that his FD% number had far more to do with his usage than with his incredibleness. Lots of deep passes. Very, very few screens.

I won't dispute that it involves usage, but the Steelers players you pointed completed just 78.7% between them, while Lloyd is over 90%. I seriously doubt that there are many other players (whatever their usage) who over the years have ever had over 70 catches, of which over 90% were for first downs.

 

[BespokeJort]

I took Lloyd at 7.01 (25th WR overall) in a PPR Dynasty startup. I was pleased. He is my 4th WR (Andre, Tampa Mike, Stevie J) . WR's taken before him include Collie, Crabtree, Colston, and Marshall. I think all of those WR's have just as much risk associated with them. I doubt he will put up 1400 yards and double digit touchdowns, but the WR 25 in this league scoring system last year would have been 77-782-4 (Davone Bess). I am confident that he will outperform those numbers and his draft position. Lloyd will be a low-end WR 1 to mid WR 2 for a high WR 3 price in most cases. Everyone thinks Orton is going to QB for Denver for the year now, so I imagine Lloyd will move up to where he should be drafted (avg WR 2). Those who drafted him at a good value will probably be satisfied.

Got him at 7.13 in a .5 ppr dynasty startup...after all the above listed guys and Emmanuel Sanders, Garcon, Mike Thomas, Jordy Nelson, Boldin, Meachem, and Earl friggin Bennett (a nice sleeper for various reasons but FFS)this guy is falling crazy far. The offense might regress, but it seems like he's put it together and his talent isn't going anywhere, so he's not gonna all of a sudden be worthless...I would be astounded if he didn't outscore at least 5 of those 7 guys

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I partially agree with MOP. A lot of the guys he named ended up collapsing in production due to injuries but the fact that he only has 1 NFL season under his belt without getting injured means he is less safe than a guy who is healthy coming into training camp after 5 years of demonstrating he can handle 100+ targets a year. Sure its not a brutal as RB or TE but plenty of WRs go down with injuries.On the other hand if he hangs out at WR#19 for much longer he will end up a couple of my teams. I don't think there is a guy after him (Holmes maybe) that I would rather have.

If you gys are targeting him WR 18-20 off the board, fine. I can understand, he just gives me the heebie jeebies and typically when I get lke this such as when TJ Housh went for 1,100/12TD a few years back and folks were liningup to grab him in dynasty and then the bottom started to fall out. He was 30 when he posted his career year. He had some other solid years but he was in a system with Palmer, Ocho, and Chris Henry...where is Denver right now?

Housh had finished 14th, 11th, and 7th in the three previous seasons when everyone was lining up to get him. It's comparing apples to dump trucks.Also, listing a bunch of 1-year wonders really isn't a very compelling argument. As a counter-argument, would you like me to list a bunch of "1-year wonders" (in other words, guys who had an unconventional pre-breakout career, were labeled as "1 year wonders", and then went on to prove everyone wrong)? I've already mentioned McCaffrey. I should probably also include Rod Smith (UDFA) in that list. How about Reggie Wayne? I remember a lot of talk about how he was a 1-year wonder who benefited from Manning's surreal 2004 season. Joe Horn was the ultimate "1 year wonder"- guy was a nobody in his first 4 seasons, then a perennial WR1 for the next 5 years. What about Steve Smith, the guy whose mantle you've mentioned Lloyd will be taking? Surely you remember all the talk back before 2004 and 2005 about how Smith's 2003 season was a fluke and how he was too short to amount to anything. How about Tim Brown? Or perhaps the best example yet, how about Drew Hill? He averaged 270 yards and 2 TDs in his first 5 seasons. Then he went for 1169/9 in year 6. One year wonder? Far from it- over the next six years, he averaged 1050/6.Do any of these guys prove Lloyd isn't a one-year wonder? Of course not, just like none of your guys prove he is. All they prove is that anecdotal evidence cuts both ways, and that while selective memory might make it seem like everyone who burst onto the scene unexpectedly wound up being a flash in the pan, the reality is quite the opposite.Edit: can't believe I forgot Jimmy Smith. He had less than 300 receiving yards through the first 4 years of his career, then went on to finish in the top 20 in career receptions and yards.Cris Carter is a lesser example, too. Finished 117th, 28th, 23rd, 65th, 17th, 20th in his first 6 years. Developed a reputation as a solid second-tier guy. Then finished 5th, 10th, 4th, 7th, 4th, 7th, 3rd over the next 7 years. Ellard had a career high of 811 receiving yards through his first 5 years... then broke out for 86/1414/10 for a #1 finish. He finished 6th the next year (despite missing two games), and 4th the year after.

... wow I have never seen someone comeback with something this dominant before lol... touche ssog ...touche

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Housh had finished 14th, 11th, and 7th in the three previous seasons when everyone was lining up to get him. It's comparing apples to dump trucks.Also, listing a bunch of 1-year wonders really isn't a very compelling argument. As a counter-argument, would you like me to list a bunch of "1-year wonders" (in other words, guys who had an unconventional pre-breakout career, were labeled as "1 year wonders", and then went on to prove everyone wrong)? I've already mentioned McCaffrey. I should probably also include Rod Smith (UDFA) in that list. How about Reggie Wayne? I remember a lot of talk about how he was a 1-year wonder who benefited from Manning's surreal 2004 season. Joe Horn was the ultimate "1 year wonder"- guy was a nobody in his first 4 seasons, then a perennial WR1 for the next 5 years. What about Steve Smith, the guy whose mantle you've mentioned Lloyd will be taking? Surely you remember all the talk back before 2004 and 2005 about how Smith's 2003 season was a fluke and how he was too short to amount to anything. How about Tim Brown? Or perhaps the best example yet, how about Drew Hill? He averaged 270 yards and 2 TDs in his first 5 seasons. Then he went for 1169/9 in year 6. One year wonder? Far from it- over the next six years, he averaged 1050/6.Do any of these guys prove Lloyd isn't a one-year wonder? Of course not, just like none of your guys prove he is. All they prove is that anecdotal evidence cuts both ways, and that while selective memory might make it seem like everyone who burst onto the scene unexpectedly wound up being a flash in the pan, the reality is quite the opposite.Edit: can't believe I forgot Jimmy Smith. He had less than 300 receiving yards through the first 4 years of his career, then went on to finish in the top 20 in career receptions and yards.Cris Carter is a lesser example, too. Finished 117th, 28th, 23rd, 65th, 17th, 20th in his first 6 years. Developed a reputation as a solid second-tier guy. Then finished 5th, 10th, 4th, 7th, 4th, 7th, 3rd over the next 7 years. Ellard had a career high of 811 receiving yards through his first 5 years... then broke out for 86/1414/10 for a #1 finish. He finished 6th the next year (despite missing two games), and 4th the year after.

I'm might rusty SSOG, take it easy on an old man. let me answer back the post. 1. Housh had a high water mark of about 2 years, the rest he might have been in the top20 but he was nowhere near as impactful as the way you are framing it but hey it is what it is. 2. Reggie Wayne??? No way, he was on everyone's radar and I never once heard the term 1 year wonder used. Joe Horn??? He flashed explosion on his way out the door with KC and then signed with NO, the rest was a pretty nice run for a few years in new orleans...not sure what I am missing. Steve Smith??? I find it incredible you keep bringing up guys that easily passed the eyeball test with most folks but OK. I don't feel Lloyd stacks up with any of these 3 WRs but if you want to put Lloyd in the same breath with Wayne, Horn, and Steve Smith then I don't really think there is much to discuss. Different stratosperes as far as I'm concerned and even Housh I was pretty vocal about him not being all that and a bag of chips...once he sigend for WR1 money in Seattle it was over. And for the record there are a lot more WR 1 year wonders than guys who turn the switch at 29/30 in their career. Furthermore I was perfectly accepting of other posters who basically feel they have a "gut feeling"...no problem with that but SSOG you are comparing Lloyd to Wayne, Horn, and St.Smith...I just can't agree with that and if that means you have a dominant post over me then so be it. I look forward to how this plays out over the season. I hope since so many folks are going to pick Lloyd that I'm wrong and you guys all take the trophy with him. Good Luck!

 

[SSOG]

I won't dispute that it involves usage, but the Steelers players you pointed completed just 78.7% between them, while Lloyd is over 90%. I seriously doubt that there are many other players (whatever their usage) who over the years have ever had over 70 catches, of which over 90% were for first downs.

The Steelers players I mentioned also included 3 different players over 8 different player-seasons. The sample size is substantially larger. Give Lloyd 500 catches and see if he stays above 90%.Anyway, I think you're missing the point I was making. I'm not denying that Lloyd's 90+% is an aberration, an outlier many standard deviations above the mean. I'm merely trying to demonstrate that a player's FD% is a function almost entirely of that player's usage (as opposed to a function of that player's talent). Pittsburgh had three different receivers come through (Plaxico, Santonio, and Wallace), and their FD% remained essentially identical the entire time, because while the receiver was different, the role was the same. If you ran a regression, you'd find essentially 0 correlation between the talent or skills of Pittsburgh's "deep receiver" and the percentage of catches that produced a first down. Insofar as Lloyd's FD% was an aberration, it was an aberration in the manner in which Lloyd was used, not the magnitude to which he excelled. So no, I don't think it's "impressive" that Lloyd had a 90+% FD%, given that any competent deep threat could have achieved a similar figure had they been subject to similarly aberrational usage patterns. I think it's interesting, sure, but not particularly impressive.Which is not to say that there is not a lot to be impressed about with respect to Brandon Lloyd.

 

[LHUCKS]

The developments at QB are positive for Lloyd so I'm revising my projections.

85 receptions

1180 yards

7 TDs

 

[SSOG]

I'm might rusty SSOG, take it easy on an old man. let me answer back the post.

1. Housh had a high water mark of about 2 years, the rest he might have been in the top20 but he was nowhere near as impactful as the way you are framing it but hey it is what it is.

2. Reggie Wayne??? No way, he was on everyone's radar and I never once heard the term 1 year wonder used. Joe Horn??? He flashed explosion on his way out the door with KC and then signed with NO, the rest was a pretty nice run for a few years in new orleans...not sure what I am missing. Steve Smith??? I find it incredible you keep bringing up guys that easily passed the eyeball test with most folks but OK. I don't feel Lloyd stacks up with any of these 3 WRs but if you want to put Lloyd in the same breath with Wayne, Horn, and Steve Smith then I don't really think there is much to discuss. Different stratosperes as far as I'm concerned and even Housh I was pretty vocal about him not being all that and a bag of chips...once he sigend for WR1 money in Seattle it was over.

And for the record there are a lot more WR 1 year wonders than guys who turn the switch at 29/30 in their career. Furthermore I was perfectly accepting of other posters who basically feel they have a "gut feeling"...no problem with that but SSOG you are comparing Lloyd to Wayne, Horn, and St.Smith...I just can't agree with that and if that means you have a dominant post over me then so be it. I look forward to how this plays out over the season. I hope since so many folks are going to pick Lloyd that I'm wrong and you guys all take the trophy with him. Good Luck!

I can't promise to take it easy, MoP, because I wasn't trying to take it hard in the first place. Guys like me have learned long ago that we have to take it however we can get it . Anyway, to respond...Houshmandzadeh: I don't know how I'm "framing" Housh as more impactful than he was. I'm merely relaying his fantasy finishes, taken directly from PFR. In 2005, at age 28, he finished as WR14. In 2006, at age 29, he finished as WR11. In 2007, at age 30, he finished as WR7. If you want to make the claim that Houshmandzadeh was considered a 1-year wonder, then he would have had to have been considered such after his 2005 season. If that's the claim you make, he's a terrible example of a "1 year wonder falling back to earth", since he followed up that campaign with two even better campaigns first.

Wayne: It's possible I'm misremembering, or I'm extrapolating an argument I heard over a much larger population than actually believed it. Either way, he probably didn't belong on the list as a young former 1st rounder. I'll retract the example.

Horn: You claim he "flashed explosion on his way out the door"? He went for 35/586/6 and finished as WR49, but because he flashed explosion, he wasn't a 1-year wonder? Well, hell, by that analysis, Lloyd's been "flashing explosion" his entire career, so he's not a 1-year wonder, either. Prior to last year, Lloyd had already posted two seasons better than Horn's best KC year. He flashed so much explosion in San Fran that Washington gave up two picks to get him. I saw a highlight reel of his on Youtube when he went to Chicago that labeled him "The savior of the bears" (no, seriously, it's still up on Youtube). You don't get called that unless you've flashed explosion. Therefore, by your "flashed explosion validates big seasons and means someone's not a one-year-wonder" criteria, Lloyd shouldn't be regarded as a 1-year wonder, either.

Smiff: The archives have long since been purged, but I very clearly and distinctly remember posting a scathing screed railing against how ludicrously low Smiff's draft position was heading into 2005. I made the argument that either Carolina was capable of supporting elite production from a fantasy receiver (in which case Smiff needed to be ranked substantially higher), or else Moose Muhammad was such a transcendent talent that he was able to produce mind-blowing numbers in a less-than-ideal situation (in which case he needed to be ranked substantially higher). Smith was being drafted in 2005 significantly below what his age and 2003 production should have dictated because there was substantial concern over his diminutive stature. In fact, Smiff and Santana Moss in 2005 were as integral to destigmatizing short receivers as MJD and Chris Johnson have been to destigmatizing smaller RBs.

Anyway, the point that I'm making isn't that Brandon Lloyd is as talented as Steve Smith (who I think is one of the top 5 receivers of the last decade). I'm saying that Brandon Lloyd 2011 is as comparable to Steve Smith circa 2004-2005 as he is to David Boston circa 2002. Obviously we know the outcome of Steve Smith circa 2004-2005 and the outcome of David Boston circa 2002, so the most likely outcome for Brandon Lloyd is that it turns out he's better than David Boston and worse than Steve Smith. I'm just saying that selective memory means you're only comparing Brandon Lloyd to guys who were perceived as 1-year wonders FOR WHOM THAT PERCEPTION WOUND UP BEING TRUE, while completely ignoring all those guys who were perceived as 1-year wonders for whom that perception wound up being unequivocally false. This naturally creates a biased and non-representative set of comps for Brandon Lloyd which dramatically overstates his likelihood of busting. Against that biased set of comps, sure, it looks like Lloyd is a bad bet this year. Include guys like Horn, Smiff, Ellard, Drew Hill, and Ed McCaffrey on his list of comps, though, and his outlook looks a lot rosier.

Oh, and by the way, as much as you object to some of the comps I have thrown out (justifiably so, in some cases, such as with Reggie Wayne), it's not like your comps are all that and a bag of chips, either. David Boston had an unreal season in year 3, at age 23. Michael Clayton's breakout season came as a rookie. Germane Crowell's came in year 2. None of them is remotely comparable to Lloyd, because nobody on the planet thought those guys were 1-year wonders- they thought they were young up-and-comers. If anyone who has a big season is a potential comp for Lloyd, then I'm adding Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin to my list of comps. Patrick Jeffers was injured by a cheap shot in the preseason after his breakout year and never played a healthy down in the NFL again- how is that comp even remotely relevant to Brandon Lloyd? Has someone secretly wrecked Lloyd's knee without telling us? Really, you're just playing a game of "throw out a list of 1-year wonders, then say that Brandon Lloyd belongs on that list without providing any tangible connection or commonality other than that both Lloyd and the 1-year wonders had a big year". And it's no more valid a counterfactual than if I played a game of "throw out a list of uberstuds and claim that Lloyd belongs on that list without providing any tangible connection or commonality other than that both Lloyd and the uberstuds had a big year".

The simple fact is that there are not many comps for Brandon Lloyd. Very few WRs bounce around the NFL for years, get written off completely, and then break out in their late 20s. Throwing out a few dishonest, biased, terrible comparisons of guys who we know were 1-hit wonders now that we have the benefit of hindsight does not have any bearing whatsoever on a discussion of Brandon Lloyd. If you want to play the anecdotal evidence game, then that's fine, but you have to find a list of guys who were comparable in year N+1 (with N being their breakout year) to Brandon Lloyd in his year N+1.

In fact, I'd love to play the anecdotal evidence game, here. I think it'd be very enlightening. You say "And for the record there are a lot more WR 1 year wonders than guys who turn the switch at 29/30 in their career.". I'm going to take you up on that challenge. Let's try to come up with a list of every WR who had an out-of-nowhere breakout year after he was older and had been around for a while. First, we're going to have to define "older" and "breakout", though. I would propose the following definitions:

Older: 27 and up

Breakout: A top-12 finish by a player who had no previous top-30 finishes to his name

How many names can you come up with that meet both of those two criteria? I can start you off with four, right off the bat: Ed McCaffrey, Joe Horn, Jimmy Smith, and Drew Hill. How many can you add?

 

[5Rings]

Welcome back, SSOG.

SSOG is The Man for Bronco info. Going to go check the Moreno thread now

 

[todd2006]

SSOG is my hero of the day. I feel smarter having read his posts. It was wonderful.

(Lloyd owner)

 

[Grahamburn]

All I need is Cecil's drolling over Lloyd's training camp performance in the Bronco thread and that post from SSOG. Convinced.

 

[kutta]

IMO he is the exception to the rule and he stands out to me in that respect. This is an intuitive play for me, and because of that, in this situation I find past examples irrelevant. According to statistics and trends you are probably right, but I think he will prove the conventional wisdom wrong.

We're talking a leap of faith here but I absolutely apprciate you beng candid and honest about it instead of trying to mak up stats. So you have a gut feeling that he is going to make 11 other owners in the league feel sorry they all passed on him in the 4th and 5th round as you collect your gold in the 6th. Having confidence in your own player analysis is great and sometimes we are all guilty of being influenced by the opinions of others. I still think Lloyd could be a sucker move for many though. The good thing though is we are talking about a WR and not someone in the 1st 3 rounds. If he whiffs a lot of owners should have other WRs on the roster to pick up the slack. It's not as bad as an RB1 playing like an RB3. This thread is going to get bumped a lot in season you can be sure of it.

MOP, you seem to spell out the point everyone is making in your last paragraph, though you still call it a sucker move. You are able to draft the #1 WR from the previous year in the 6th or 7th round, and that's a sucker move? Even if he doesn't pan out, you will either be very strong in other areas (waiting until the 6th/7th round to draft your WR2) or you will have other WRs that will be your starters anyway (drafting 2 or more WRs in rounds 1-5). So either way you look at it, the risk is small and the payoff is potentially very big. That's a good bet in my book.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I find it incredible you keep bringing up guys that easily passed the eyeball test with most folks but OK. I don't feel Lloyd stacks up with any of these 3 WRs but if you want to put Lloyd in the same breath with Wayne, Horn, and Steve Smith then I don't really think there is much to discuss. Different stratosperes as far as I'm concerned and even Housh I was pretty vocal about him not being all that and a bag of chips...once he sigend for WR1 money in Seattle it was over.

While what you say is true about more potential "1 year wonders" fitting that mold than breaking it, this part about the eyeball test is not a good one.The only thing that Lloyd did well for his career prior to last year was the eyeball test. The guy looked like a stud WR in the waiting, and constantly appeared on highlight reels, but just never could put it all together.

It's not pre-breakout Lloyd that doesn't belong in the same conversation as pre-breakout Horn. It's the other way around. Lloyd was much more impressive in his bad days than Horn was in his.