BRANDON MARSHALL PROJECTIONS (1 Viewer)

[hab0010]

Would 90-100 rec. 1200-1400 yards & 9-11 td's be unrealistic ? I have him in a keeper league & im very high on him

 

[SSOG]

Would 90-100 rec. 1200-1400 yards & 9-11 td's be unrealistic ? I have him in a keeper league & im very high on him

Projections for what? Next year?If so, he had 102/1385/7 this year, so clearly 100/1400/10 is very realistically achievable (since he was essentially just 3 TDs short of it this year). I don't know if that's what I'd project him to (it's a little early in the offseason to be worrying about that yet, IMO), but I don't think anyone can tell you it's all that unrealistic.

 

[Portis 26]

It's always a mistake to presume that just because a player got certain stats this year he will have similar ones next year.

Marshall got fed the ball a lot this year because Javon Walker and to a lesser extent Brandon Stokley were out with injury.

If Walker is back healthy, or they bring someone else in to start, I don't know if Marshall can repeat those numbers. If anything, I would expect them to decline a bit.

 

[Banger]

I don't see those projections as unrealistic. I'd expect him to get fewer catch's, possibly a few more yards and a few more td's.

 

[thatguy]

Assuming Walker leaves, I expect something like 95, 1300, 11 (throw in ~100 rushing yards as well, Denver began to utilize him effectively on running plays the last few weeks to take advantage of his his break tackle ability). His TDs spiked toward the end of the year (5 TD's in his last 7 games) and I think that trend will continue as Denver works out its Red Zone struggles. If Walker stays and returns to pre-injury form, 80, 1150, 9 is probably more realistic.

 

[ArlingtonTerp]

1400/10 seems possible of course, but it's too high for a projection. His production per target was not very good. They are unlikely to force him the ball so much next year. If they do, it probably continues to reflect a bad offense, and I don't see a reason for more TDs per catch.

I also have Marshall in my league, and am high on him. However, we can only keep 6, and I may have to drop him. But if I actually projected him at something like 1400/10 it would be a no-brainer to keep him over Willie Parker in my league where you can play a single RB per week. I may actually drop Parker to keep him anyway.

 

[mozzy84]

cutler will be better next year and so will marshall, even if walker is there I would expect those numbers.

 

[FavreCo]

Would 90-100 rec. 1200-1400 yards & 9-11 td's be unrealistic ? I have him in a keeper league & im very high on him

You're high on Brandon Marshall? I dunno about that. He's really not very good.

Fixed.He will easily put up those numbers barring injury or mental meltdown in the offseason.

 

[EdwardCat]

It's always a mistake to presume that just because a player got certain stats this year he will have similar ones next year.Marshall got fed the ball a lot this year because Javon Walker and to a lesser extent Brandon Stokley were out with injury.If Walker is back healthy, or they bring someone else in to start, I don't know if Marshall can repeat those numbers. If anything, I would expect them to decline a bit.

True, if you look at the stats, Marshall was somewhat of an afterthought early in the season when playing across from Walker. In reality, if Marshall plays like he did while Walker was healthy, he will do just as well next year.

 

[Banger]

1400/10 seems possible of course, but it's too high for a projection. His production per target was not very good. They are unlikely to force him the ball so much next year. If they do, it probably continues to reflect a bad offense, and I don't see a reason for more TDs per catch. I also have Marshall in my league, and am high on him. However, we can only keep 6, and I may have to drop him. But if I actually projected him at something like 1400/10 it would be a no-brainer to keep him over Willie Parker in my league where you can play a single RB per week. I may actually drop Parker to keep him anyway.

His per target stats are being way overblown IMO. Don't forget that this guy is a 2nd year wr with a 2nd year QB and an offense that transitioned around him as the year went on. Here are the top wr's this year and their stats...player----ypt/ypr/catch%Fitzgerald - 8.43/14.09/.6S. Smith - 6.77/11.25/.6Housh - 6.76/10.2/.66Edwards - 8.42/16.11/.52TO - 9.6/16.72/.57Wayne - 9.68/14.51/.66Chad - 9/15.48/.58Colston - 8.4/12.26/.68Marshall - 7.8/13/.6 (1st half 7.51/13.53/.55 2nd half 8.04/12.56/.64)His catch % is right in line with the top wr's and increased nearly 10% between the 1st and 2nd half. His yards per target also increased by .5 ypt (to 8.04). I suspect this change was due to the way the team used and will continue to use Marshall by throwing the ball to him at the line and letting him do what he does best - make plays. While I think his targets may drop I don't think the receptions will drop by much at all because they will continue to get the ball into the hands of the best playmaker on the team. It's also worth mentioning that he scored 2 td's in the 1st half and 5 in the 2nd half of the season. These "metrics" are nice but I get points for yards and td's (and if you're in a PPR league - receptions) and at the end of the day he had more yards than 4 of the 8 guys on the list and his td production looks to be improving by his 1st half/2nd half splits. There's also room for continued improvement based on the anemic red zone production of the Denver offense as a whole.

 

[SSOG]

It's always a mistake to presume that just because a player got certain stats this year he will have similar ones next year.

Agreed, but at the same time, the question was whether that projection was entirely unrealistic, and since Marshall put up those numbers this year, I don't think it is. He's already demonstrated he's capable of it.

Would 90-100 rec. 1200-1400 yards & 9-11 td's be unrealistic ? I have him in a keeper league & im very high on him

You're high on Brandon Marshall? I dunno about that. He's really not very good.

Fixed.He will easily put up those numbers barring injury or mental meltdown in the offseason.

Easily? No. No one ever puts up 1400 yards "easily". Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, two of the best receivers to ever play the game, have only put up back-to-back 1350+ receiving yard seasons once each in their entire careers. Torry Holt has done it twice, Chad Johnson has done it twice, Marvin Harrison has done it three times. Jerry Rice, widely considered the greatest WR to ever play the game, only did it three times in his career. It's not an "easy" thing to do by any stretch of the imagination.

These "metrics" are nice but I get points for yards and td's (and if you're in a PPR league - receptions) and at the end of the day he had more yards than 4 of the 8 guys on the list and his td production looks to be improving by his 1st half/2nd half splits. There's also room for continued improvement based on the anemic red zone production of the Denver offense as a whole.

I agree that Denver's anemic red-zone offense has a lot of room for improvement and Marshall stands to potentially be the beneficiary (although I think that if Denver's red zone offense improves, it'll result in a bigger increase in rushing TDs than passing TDs). I would caution against using first half/second half splits, though- especially for as small of a sample size as TDs. As Doug Drinen once said... sometimes, splits happen. Remember how Reggie Bush's first half/second half splits last year were irrefutable evidence that a light had turned on and he finally got it? Or when Miami's 6-0 finish the year before proved that the team was coming together and was a potential Superbowl team?Edit: I also agree that Marshall's per-target production isn't "bad" in the slightest. It's been very solid.

 

[Rushmore]

It's always a mistake to presume that just because a player got certain stats this year he will have similar ones next year.

Agreed, but at the same time, the question was whether that projection was entirely unrealistic, and since Marshall put up those numbers this year, I don't think it is. He's already demonstrated he's capable of it.

Would 90-100 rec. 1200-1400 yards & 9-11 td's be unrealistic ? I have him in a keeper league & im very high on him

You're high on Brandon Marshall? I dunno about that. He's really not very good.

Fixed.He will easily put up those numbers barring injury or mental meltdown in the offseason.

Easily? No. No one ever puts up 1400 yards "easily". Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, two of the best receivers to ever play the game, have only put up back-to-back 1350+ receiving yard seasons once each in their entire careers. Torry Holt has done it twice, Chad Johnson has done it twice, Marvin Harrison has done it three times. Jerry Rice, widely considered the greatest WR to ever play the game, only did it three times in his career. It's not an "easy" thing to do by any stretch of the imagination.

These "metrics" are nice but I get points for yards and td's (and if you're in a PPR league - receptions) and at the end of the day he had more yards than 4 of the 8 guys on the list and his td production looks to be improving by his 1st half/2nd half splits. There's also room for continued improvement based on the anemic red zone production of the Denver offense as a whole.

I agree that Denver's anemic red-zone offense has a lot of room for improvement and Marshall stands to potentially be the beneficiary (although I think that if Denver's red zone offense improves, it'll result in a bigger increase in rushing TDs than passing TDs). I would caution against using first half/second half splits, though- especially for as small of a sample size as TDs. As Doug Drinen once said... sometimes, splits happen. Remember how Reggie Bush's first half/second half splits last year were irrefutable evidence that a light had turned on and he finally got it? Or when Miami's 6-0 finish the year before proved that the team was coming together and was a potential Superbowl team?Edit: I also agree that Marshall's per-target production isn't "bad" in the slightest. It's been very solid.

Glad to see this post. You seem to at least be warming up to him. I think the only concern with him for me is his maturity. If he can continue moving forward with that, his physical skills are already there. If he keeps his head straight he could be something very special imo.

 

[SSOG]

Glad to see this post. You seem to at least be warming up to him. I think the only concern with him for me is his maturity. If he can continue moving forward with that, his physical skills are already there. If he keeps his head straight he could be something very special imo.

I'm not really warming to him at all (okay, maybe I've moved him from 21st to 18th on my list of WRs at the moment), it's just that people have misunderstood a lot of the points I make regarding him. When I mention Marshall's per-play numbers, it's not because his are bad, it's because they're simply good while the guys I'm comparing him to are SPECTACULAR.I do agree that he's definitely on the right career arc to be a really special player, though. My arguments have always been that people are overrating his current contributions, not that he'll never live up to the hype. I've said in multiple places that I'd take him over Terrell Owens (a consensus top-10 dynasty WR) in a dynasty league.