Browns to consider trading up in the draft to get elite QB (1 Viewer)

[Gopher State]

Browns | Holmgren will consider QB in first round

Comment (0)

Mon, 15 Mar 2010 13:55:57 -0700

Mary Kay Cabot, of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, reports Cleveland Browns president Mike Holmgren said the team will consider taking a quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft. Holmgren said the team would consider trading up to get a quarterback.

 

[Cassius]

I imagine the Browns are considering a lot of things. Just like any team.

 

[CalBear]

Browns | Holmgren will consider QB in first round

Comment (0)

Mon, 15 Mar 2010 13:55:57 -0700

Mary Kay Cabot, of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, reports Cleveland Browns president Mike Holmgren said the team will consider taking a quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft. Holmgren said the team would consider trading up to get a quarterback.

Because drafting a first-round QB onto a terrible offense worked so well for them last time...Edit to add: The last two times.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Browns | Holmgren will consider QB in first round Comment (0) Mon, 15 Mar 2010 13:55:57 -0700Mary Kay Cabot, of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, reports Cleveland Browns president Mike Holmgren said the team will consider taking a quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft. Holmgren said the team would consider trading up to get a quarterback.

This confuses me. The headline says "in first round", but in the subtext underneath it, there's no mention of the first round. Just says "will consider taking" and "would consider trading up". That could mean moving up in the THIRD ROUND and grabbing a QB.

 

[daveR]

Browns | Holmgren will consider QB in first round

Comment (0)

Mon, 15 Mar 2010 13:55:57 -0700

Mary Kay Cabot, of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, reports Cleveland Browns president Mike Holmgren said the team will consider taking a quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft. Holmgren said the team would consider trading up to get a quarterback.

This confuses me. The headline says "in first round", but in the subtext underneath it, there's no mention of the first round. Just says "will consider taking" and "would consider trading up". That could mean moving up in the THIRD ROUND and grabbing a QB.

From what I heard Mary Kay say on the radio, the "trading up" part was her speculation. She said something along the lines of "The lightbulbs went on over my head. THAT'S why they traded Wimbley. The wanted more firepower in terms of draft picks so they could trade up." I don't think she said that Holmgren mentioned trading up.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

Instead of trading up they should have just lost more games. They have NO CLUE!

 

[Black]

Instead of trading up they should have just lost more games. They have NO CLUE!

Spoken like a true Lions fan. Heh heh.He is loading up for bear, tho. Not sure he has a full roster right now, so he'll have to use those 57 picks.

 

[Christo]

Browns | Holmgren will consider QB in first round

Comment (0)

Mon, 15 Mar 2010 13:55:57 -0700

Mary Kay Cabot, of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, reports Cleveland Browns president Mike Holmgren said the team will consider taking a quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft. Holmgren said the team would consider trading up to get a quarterback.

This confuses me. The headline says "in first round", but in the subtext underneath it, there's no mention of the first round. Just says "will consider taking" and "would consider trading up". That could mean moving up in the THIRD ROUND and grabbing a QB.

From what I heard Mary Kay say on the radio, the "trading up" part was her speculation. She said something along the lines of "The lightbulbs went on over my head. THAT'S why they traded Wimbley. The wanted more firepower in terms of draft picks so they could trade up." I don't think she said that Holmgren mentioned trading up.

Holmgren said the team would consider trading up to get a quarterback

Mary Kay needs to get her story straight.

 

[JetMaxx]

Browns | Holmgren will consider QB in first round

Comment (0)

Mon, 15 Mar 2010 13:55:57 -0700

Mary Kay Cabot, of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, reports Cleveland Browns president Mike Holmgren said the team will consider taking a quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft. Holmgren said the team would consider trading up to get a quarterback.

This confuses me. The headline says "in first round", but in the subtext underneath it, there's no mention of the first round. Just says "will consider taking" and "would consider trading up". That could mean moving up in the THIRD ROUND and grabbing a QB.

From what I heard Mary Kay say on the radio, the "trading up" part was her speculation. She said something along the lines of "The lightbulbs went on over my head. THAT'S why they traded Wimbley. The wanted more firepower in terms of draft picks so they could trade up." I don't think she said that Holmgren mentioned trading up.

Holmgren said the team would consider trading up to get a quarterback

Mary Kay needs to get her story straight.

Slow day for mascara sales?

 

[TheFanatic]

Browns | Holmgren will consider QB in first round Comment (0) Mon, 15 Mar 2010 13:55:57 -0700Mary Kay Cabot, of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, reports Cleveland Browns president Mike Holmgren said the team will consider taking a quarterback in the 2010 NFL Draft. Holmgren said the team would consider trading up to get a quarterback.

This confuses me. The headline says "in first round", but in the subtext underneath it, there's no mention of the first round. Just says "will consider taking" and "would consider trading up". That could mean moving up in the THIRD ROUND and grabbing a QB.

As in no story here. This just in, the Rams and the Colts both may consider trading up to get a QB. Sure it may be for very different reasons but it's true for both teams and just about any other...

 

[Jason Wood]

One of my partners (a Ravens fan) and I were talking about this very thing today. We both agreed that the only reason Holmgren's Wallace + Delhomme moves made any sense was if he planned on drafting a "franchise" QB this year. Otherwise he's swapping two 'guys' for two other 'guys.' But if you throw in a high franchise pick, then all of the sudden you have an intriguing situation where Delhomme likely keeps the seat warm and Wallace is ready to be the savvy and cooperative backup in 2011 and beyond once the youngster is ready.

 

[Steelfan7]

One of my partners (a Ravens fan) and I were talking about this very thing today. We both agreed that the only reason Holmgren's Wallace + Delhomme moves made any sense was if he planned on drafting a "franchise" QB this year. Otherwise he's swapping two 'guys' for two other 'guys.' But if you throw in a high franchise pick, then all of the sudden you have an intriguing situation where Delhomme likely keeps the seat warm and Wallace is ready to be the savvy and cooperative backup in 2011 and beyond once the youngster is ready.

I agree but I don't see any true franchise qbs in this draft. Some look like sheep in wolves clothing ala Russell, Quinn, Alex Smith, David Carr etc.....

 

[MAC_32]

One of my partners (a Ravens fan) and I were talking about this very thing today. We both agreed that the only reason Holmgren's Wallace + Delhomme moves made any sense was if he planned on drafting a "franchise" QB this year. Otherwise he's swapping two 'guys' for two other 'guys.' But if you throw in a high franchise pick, then all of the sudden you have an intriguing situation where Delhomme likely keeps the seat warm and Wallace is ready to be the savvy and cooperative backup in 2011 and beyond once the youngster is ready.

I agree but I don't see any true franchise qbs in this draft. Some look like sheep in wolves clothing ala Russell, Quinn, Alex Smith, David Carr etc.....

Said it since last offseason and the only thing to happen to possibly change my mind (durability concerns) since has been relieved a bit by noticeable changes (weight gain, especially upper body), Sam Bradford is the next great QB in the league.If all of these moves I don't like were a plan to move up and get Sam, I'll revoke every bad thing I've said. Wherever Sam goes he will be great, God willing I hope it's here.

 

[daveR]

One of my partners (a Ravens fan) and I were talking about this very thing today. We both agreed that the only reason Holmgren's Wallace + Delhomme moves made any sense was if he planned on drafting a "franchise" QB this year. Otherwise he's swapping two 'guys' for two other 'guys.' But if you throw in a high franchise pick, then all of the sudden you have an intriguing situation where Delhomme likely keeps the seat warm and Wallace is ready to be the savvy and cooperative backup in 2011 and beyond once the youngster is ready.

I agree but I don't see any true franchise qbs in this draft. Some look like sheep in wolves clothing ala Russell, Quinn, Alex Smith, David Carr etc.....

Said it since last offseason and the only thing to happen to possibly change my mind (durability concerns) since has been relieved a bit by noticeable changes (weight gain, especially upper body), Sam Bradford is the next great QB in the league.If all of these moves I don't like were a plan to move up and get Sam, I'll revoke every bad thing I've said. Wherever Sam goes he will be great, God willing I hope it's here.

I tend to agree, but I've been wrong before (see sig). Interesting to take a franchise QB in an uncapped year. You could actually FRONT-load the contract!

 

[Steelfan7]

One of my partners (a Ravens fan) and I were talking about this very thing today. We both agreed that the only reason Holmgren's Wallace + Delhomme moves made any sense was if he planned on drafting a "franchise" QB this year. Otherwise he's swapping two 'guys' for two other 'guys.' But if you throw in a high franchise pick, then all of the sudden you have an intriguing situation where Delhomme likely keeps the seat warm and Wallace is ready to be the savvy and cooperative backup in 2011 and beyond once the youngster is ready.

I agree but I don't see any true franchise qbs in this draft. Some look like sheep in wolves clothing ala Russell, Quinn, Alex Smith, David Carr etc.....

Said it since last offseason and the only thing to happen to possibly change my mind (durability concerns) since has been relieved a bit by noticeable changes (weight gain, especially upper body), Sam Bradford is the next great QB in the league.If all of these moves I don't like were a plan to move up and get Sam, I'll revoke every bad thing I've said. Wherever Sam goes he will be great, God willing I hope it's here.

I'd be leery of a qb who has now hurt his shoulder twice in a very short college career. We also have no idea how Bradford handles defensive pressures. He's had the luxury of playing behind very good OL with little pressure. Jason White looked awesome playing with great Oklahoma teams as well. I'm not saying Bradford = Jason White, but just saying that he has not been battled tested.

 

[KCC]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

 

[Steelfan7]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

What I find interesting is hearing about Cleveland switching to Holmgren's WC offense when he is just a Personnel guy now. Has this been confirmed by the Browns or people just assuming. Serious question.

 

[kaa]

Mike Holmgren is the guy who develops franchise QBs. Since the Browns have brought him in to rebuild the franchise, it shouldn't shock anyone if the first pick he makes is a franchise QB. Of course to trade up in the first round will require two first round picks, minimum, and not the flotsam they've accumulated towards the end of the draft.

The question is, what makes more sense for the Cleveland Browns? Trading the 2010 first and second round picks, plus the 2011 first round pick, for Clausen or Bradford? Or maybe trading the 2010 first for Kevin Kolb?

 

[Donnybrook]

I guess Brett Ratliff will be looking for work soon.

 

[Jason Wood]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

Peyton Manning -- 1st roundPhilip Rivers -- 1st round

Eli Manning -- 1st round

Donovan McNabb -- 1st round

Joe Flacco -- 1st round

Aaron Rodgers -- 1st round

Ben Roethlisberger -- 1st round

Mark Sanchez -- 1st round

Carson Palmer -- 1st round

Matt Ryan -- 1st round

Matthew Stafford -- 1st round

Vince Young -- 1st round

Jay Cutler -- 1st round

I don't think a lot of NFL GMs would agree with you.

 

[daveR]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

What I find interesting is hearing about Cleveland switching to Holmgren's WC offense when he is just a Personnel guy now. Has this been confirmed by the Browns or people just assuming. Serious question.

Locally, we've been told that Holmgren will not impose his system on the team, but that Mangini/Dabol now have someone to bounce things off of. That being said, the media frquently adopts the WCO stance anyway. IMO, Holmgren has too much to do and would prefer to stay out of the coaching aspect.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I could see Holmgren picking Colt McCoy. Definitely won't need to spend a 1st rounder for that. Could trade up to get him......in the bottom of the 2nd if needed.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

It seems that this may not necessarily be the case, as Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez have immediately had success indivdiually and for their teams. Obviously this will not always be the case, but it's no longer a given that young QBs can not be trusted.

 

[KCC]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

Peyton Manning -- 1st roundPhilip Rivers -- 1st round

Eli Manning -- 1st round

Donovan McNabb -- 1st round

Joe Flacco -- 1st round

Aaron Rodgers -- 1st round

Ben Roethlisberger -- 1st round

Mark Sanchez -- 1st round

Carson Palmer -- 1st round

Matt Ryan -- 1st round

Matthew Stafford -- 1st round

Vince Young -- 1st round

Jay Cutler -- 1st round

I don't think a lot of NFL GMs would agree with you.

Geez, I wonder why Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch didn't make the list. It's almost as if you cherry-picked the data.

 

[KCC]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

It seems that this may not necessarily be the case, as Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez have immediately had success indivdiually and for their teams. Obviously this will not always be the case, but it's no longer a given that young QBs can not be trusted.

Flacco and Sanchez played for teams with phenomenal defenses. Ryan had a terrific running game. Those are not representative of typical winning percentages of first year QBs.

 

[css2373]

One of my partners (a Ravens fan) and I were talking about this very thing today. We both agreed that the only reason Holmgren's Wallace + Delhomme moves made any sense was if he planned on drafting a "franchise" QB this year. Otherwise he's swapping two 'guys' for two other 'guys.' But if you throw in a high franchise pick, then all of the sudden you have an intriguing situation where Delhomme likely keeps the seat warm and Wallace is ready to be the savvy and cooperative backup in 2011 and beyond once the youngster is ready.

I agree but I don't see any true franchise qbs in this draft. Some look like sheep in wolves clothing ala Russell, Quinn, Alex Smith, David Carr etc.....

Said it since last offseason and the only thing to happen to possibly change my mind (durability concerns) since has been relieved a bit by noticeable changes (weight gain, especially upper body), Sam Bradford is the next great QB in the league.If all of these moves I don't like were a plan to move up and get Sam, I'll revoke every bad thing I've said. Wherever Sam goes he will be great, God willing I hope it's here.

I'd be leery of a qb who has now hurt his shoulder twice in a very short college career. We also have no idea how Bradford handles defensive pressures. He's had the luxury of playing behind very good OL with little pressure. Jason White looked awesome playing with great Oklahoma teams as well. I'm not saying Bradford = Jason White, but just saying that he has not been battled tested.

He faced alot of pressure in the Nat'l Champ game against Florida and if not for some faulty play-calling may have come out on top. In the BYU game, he got BEAT UP and I think he was not ready to go against Texas.I am not a fan of Bradford, but I really like his ability to make quick decisions and place the ball accurately. If his shoulder checks out and he has not lost any zip...I say he will be good.

 

[xenith]

Does anyone else get a bit suspicious when Sam "Slim" Bradford suddenly shows up with an extra 15# of upper body muscle mass before the combine? Just sayin...

Back on topic, for whomever said it will take 2 1st rounders, may not at all be the case. If they are moving from #7 to #4-5, that 7th pick plus a 2nd rounder would do just fine, maybe even less.

 

[Christo]

Does anyone else get a bit suspicious when Sam "Slim" Bradford suddenly shows up with an extra 15# of upper body muscle mass before the combine? Just sayin...

Suddenly? How long did it take him to put it on?

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

Does anyone else get a bit suspicious when Sam "Slim" Bradford suddenly shows up with an extra 15# of upper body muscle mass before the combine? Just sayin...

Suddenly? How long did it take him to put it on?

Well his surgery was on October 28th and after 4 months of rehab he reportedly weighed in about 12lbs heavier at the end of February. Seems pretty normal to me.

 

[xenith]

Does anyone else get a bit suspicious when Sam "Slim" Bradford suddenly shows up with an extra 15# of upper body muscle mass before the combine? Just sayin...

Suddenly? How long did it take him to put it on?

Well his surgery was on October 28th and after 4 months of rehab he reportedly weighed in about 12lbs heavier at the end of February. Seems pretty normal to me.

Hey I readily admit I'm probably just bein a bit paranoid. My Q is really why didn't this upper body growth occur during his stellar collegiate career at a national powerhouse program, rather than afterwards, when preparing for the next step with serious durability concerns to answer.

 

[Johnny Ice]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

Peyton Manning -- 1st roundPhilip Rivers -- 1st round

Eli Manning -- 1st round

Donovan McNabb -- 1st round

Joe Flacco -- 1st round

Aaron Rodgers -- 1st round

Ben Roethlisberger -- 1st round

Mark Sanchez -- 1st round

Carson Palmer -- 1st round

Matt Ryan -- 1st round

Matthew Stafford -- 1st round

Vince Young -- 1st round

Jay Cutler -- 1st round

I don't think a lot of NFL GMs would agree with you.

Geez, I wonder why Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch didn't make the list. It's almost as if you cherry-picked the data.

I'm pretty sure the point is, an overwhelming majority of the most successful QBs come from the first round. If you don't get one in the 1st you have even less of a chance of them working out. I get your point as well because if they bust you're in serious trouble, but scared money doesn't make money.

 

[Donnybrook]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

Peyton Manning -- 1st roundPhilip Rivers -- 1st round

Eli Manning -- 1st round

Donovan McNabb -- 1st round

Joe Flacco -- 1st round

Aaron Rodgers -- 1st round

Ben Roethlisberger -- 1st round

Mark Sanchez -- 1st round

Carson Palmer -- 1st round

Matt Ryan -- 1st round

Matthew Stafford -- 1st round

Vince Young -- 1st round

Jay Cutler -- 1st round

I don't think a lot of NFL GMs would agree with you.

Geez, I wonder why Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch didn't make the list. It's almost as if you cherry-picked the data.

I'm pretty sure the point is, an overwhelming majority of the most successful QBs come from the first round. If you don't get one in the 1st you have even less of a chance of them working out. I get your point as well because if they bust you're in serious trouble, but scared money doesn't make money.

You have to admit that the data is skewed in favour of 1st round picks because they are given every oppertunity to succeed and low round picks are not. First round picks like David Carr, Joey Herrington, Rick Mirer and many others got to play for multiple years until their respective teams decided that they were not going to improve. Meanwhile, players like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo have to wait several years for their oppertunity and then they are usually on a shorter leash.

 

[CalBear]

I'm pretty sure the point is, an overwhelming majority of the most successful QBs come from the first round. If you don't get one in the 1st you have even less of a chance of them working out. I get your point as well because if they bust you're in serious trouble, but scared money doesn't make money.

You have to admit that the data is skewed in favour of 1st round picks because they are given every oppertunity to succeed and low round picks are not. First round picks like David Carr, Joey Herrington, Rick Mirer and many others got to play for multiple years until their respective teams decided that they were not going to improve. Meanwhile, players like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo have to wait several years for their oppertunity and then they are usually on a shorter leash.

An overwhelming majority of major QB busts come from the first round, as well. And a lot of the successful first-round QBs do not become successful for the team which drafted them. Here's a look at the top 12 from 2009:

1: Aaron Rodgers (1st round pick)

2: Drew Brees (acquired via free agency)

3: Brett Favre (acquired via free agency)

4: Peyton Manning (1st round pick)

5: Matt Schaub (acquired via trade)

6: Tony Romo (acquired as free agent)

7: Phillip Rivers (1st round pick/trade)

8: Tom Brady (6th round pick)

9: Ben Roethlisberger (1st round pick)

10: Eli Manning (1st round pick/trade)

11: Donovan McNabb (1st round pick)

12: Jay Cutler (acquired via trade)

So even if you count Rivers and Manning as first round picks playing for the team that drafted them, only half of the top QBs are success stories based on a team's first round pick.

Conversely, 9 of the top 12 WRs were first or second round draft picks for the team they're still playing for, and 7 of the top 12 RBs (including all of the top 4)--9 of the top 12 RBs if you include the third round.

So it looks at least as likely to acquire a top QB via trade or free agency as it is via a first-round pick, and your chances look better with a WR or RB. (Not to mention positions like LT, where it seems the top players are mostly first round picks playing for the team which originally drafted them).

 

[Christo]

Does anyone else get a bit suspicious when Sam "Slim" Bradford suddenly shows up with an extra 15# of upper body muscle mass before the combine? Just sayin...

Suddenly? How long did it take him to put it on?

Well his surgery was on October 28th and after 4 months of rehab he reportedly weighed in about 12lbs heavier at the end of February. Seems pretty normal to me.

Hey I readily admit I'm probably just bein a bit paranoid. My Q is really why didn't this upper body growth occur during his stellar collegiate career at a national powerhouse program, rather than afterwards, when preparing for the next step with serious durability concerns to answer.

Because it was part of his surgery rehab? The guy's pretty slim. He could certainly stand to put on the weight.

 

[bonesman]

I'm pretty sure the point is, an overwhelming majority of the most successful QBs come from the first round. If you don't get one in the 1st you have even less of a chance of them working out. I get your point as well because if they bust you're in serious trouble, but scared money doesn't make money.

You have to admit that the data is skewed in favour of 1st round picks because they are given every oppertunity to succeed and low round picks are not. First round picks like David Carr, Joey Herrington, Rick Mirer and many others got to play for multiple years until their respective teams decided that they were not going to improve. Meanwhile, players like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo have to wait several years for their oppertunity and then they are usually on a shorter leash.

An overwhelming majority of major QB busts come from the first round, as well.

Obviously... I've never really heard of a 6th round bust. Busts occur because of expectations... and more is expected of 1st rounders... eh?

 

[KCC]

I'm pretty sure the point is, an overwhelming majority of the most successful QBs come from the first round. If you don't get one in the 1st you have even less of a chance of them working out. I get your point as well because if they bust you're in serious trouble, but scared money doesn't make money.

You have to admit that the data is skewed in favour of 1st round picks because they are given every oppertunity to succeed and low round picks are not. First round picks like David Carr, Joey Herrington, Rick Mirer and many others got to play for multiple years until their respective teams decided that they were not going to improve. Meanwhile, players like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo have to wait several years for their oppertunity and then they are usually on a shorter leash.

An overwhelming majority of major QB busts come from the first round, as well. And a lot of the successful first-round QBs do not become successful for the team which drafted them. Here's a look at the top 12 from 2009:

1: Aaron Rodgers (1st round pick)

2: Drew Brees (acquired via free agency)

3: Brett Favre (acquired via free agency)

4: Peyton Manning (1st round pick)

5: Matt Schaub (acquired via trade)

6: Tony Romo (acquired as free agent)

7: Phillip Rivers (1st round pick/trade)

8: Tom Brady (6th round pick)

9: Ben Roethlisberger (1st round pick)

10: Eli Manning (1st round pick/trade)

11: Donovan McNabb (1st round pick)

12: Jay Cutler (acquired via trade)

So even if you count Rivers and Manning as first round picks playing for the team that drafted them, only half of the top QBs are success stories based on a team's first round pick.

Conversely, 9 of the top 12 WRs were first or second round draft picks for the team they're still playing for, and 7 of the top 12 RBs (including all of the top 4)--9 of the top 12 RBs if you include the third round.

So it looks at least as likely to acquire a top QB via trade or free agency as it is via a first-round pick, and your chances look better with a WR or RB. (Not to mention positions like LT, where it seems the top players are mostly first round picks playing for the team which originally drafted them).

Exactly. And, as I mentioned earlier in this thread, even the first round picks that do eventually develop into good starting QBs either ride the pine for a year (while still costing the team salary cap space) or set their team back while learning the aspects of the pro game as a starter for their first season.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm pretty sure the point is, an overwhelming majority of the most successful QBs come from the first round. If you don't get one in the 1st you have even less of a chance of them working out. I get your point as well because if they bust you're in serious trouble, but scared money doesn't make money.

You have to admit that the data is skewed in favour of 1st round picks because they are given every oppertunity to succeed and low round picks are not. First round picks like David Carr, Joey Herrington, Rick Mirer and many others got to play for multiple years until their respective teams decided that they were not going to improve. Meanwhile, players like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo have to wait several years for their oppertunity and then they are usually on a shorter leash.

An overwhelming majority of major QB busts come from the first round, as well.

Obviously... I've never really heard of a 6th round bust. Busts occur because of expectations... and more is expected of 1st rounders... eh?

Exactly.And chronicling the fate of the majority of other positions yields similar results; which is to say success rates are only so good. Being successful in football only comes with a confluence of so many variables, that even the most diligent "talent evaluation" is going to yield a lot of perceived "whiffs" in retrospect. QB is no exception.

 

[Cassius]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

Peyton Manning -- 1st roundPhilip Rivers -- 1st round

Eli Manning -- 1st round

Donovan McNabb -- 1st round

Joe Flacco -- 1st round

Aaron Rodgers -- 1st round

Ben Roethlisberger -- 1st round

Mark Sanchez -- 1st round

Carson Palmer -- 1st round

Matt Ryan -- 1st round

Matthew Stafford -- 1st round

Vince Young -- 1st round

Jay Cutler -- 1st round

I don't think a lot of NFL GMs would agree with you.

Geez, I wonder why Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch didn't make the list. It's almost as if you cherry-picked the data.

Are you serious?

 

[Routilla]

This is all based on the premise that there is an elite QB in the draft. I just don't see any.

 

[KCC]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

Peyton Manning -- 1st roundPhilip Rivers -- 1st round

Eli Manning -- 1st round

Donovan McNabb -- 1st round

Joe Flacco -- 1st round

Aaron Rodgers -- 1st round

Ben Roethlisberger -- 1st round

Mark Sanchez -- 1st round

Carson Palmer -- 1st round

Matt Ryan -- 1st round

Matthew Stafford -- 1st round

Vince Young -- 1st round

Jay Cutler -- 1st round

I don't think a lot of NFL GMs would agree with you.

Geez, I wonder why Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch didn't make the list. It's almost as if you cherry-picked the data.

Are you serious?

Yes. I'm not sure why that would confuse you. Here's some other first round QBs. Woodrow cherry picked just the studs. I can name some more busts, but for the sake of balance I'll also go so far as to also include the mediocre starters. (The picks listed coincide with the time frame of Woodrow's stud draft list):JaMarcus Russell

Brady Quinn

Matt Leinart

Alex D. Smith

J.P. Losman

Byron Leftwich

Kyle Boller

Rex Grossman

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Akili Smith

 

[Bobcat10]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

What I find interesting is hearing about Cleveland switching to Holmgren's WC offense when he is just a Personnel guy now. Has this been confirmed by the Browns or people just assuming. Serious question.

Locally, we've been told that Holmgren will not impose his system on the team, but that Mangini/Dabol now have someone to bounce things off of. That being said, the media frquently adopts the WCO stance anyway. IMO, Holmgren has too much to do and would prefer to stay out of the coaching aspect.

While some of what you say is true, Haskell and Wallace were brought in for very specific reasons. I've heard Haskell and Daboll are meeting very frequently. This smells like a Holmgren/Haskell take over at some point...but I'm getting ahead of myself probably.

 

[daveR]

I absolutely hate it when a team goes QB in the first round. That almost always means they are either willing to use a first round pick on a player that won't see action their first year on the team, or the player will get thrown to the wolves and the entire team will struggle for wins while they slowly learn the ropes. I especially hate it even more when a team trades away additional draft picks to end up in either of those two positions I just described. Having said that, this is now a Holmgren team and this move should not surprise anyone. His system won't work (or at least won't work well) if he doesn't have a QB that fits well within the system.

What I find interesting is hearing about Cleveland switching to Holmgren's WC offense when he is just a Personnel guy now. Has this been confirmed by the Browns or people just assuming. Serious question.

Locally, we've been told that Holmgren will not impose his system on the team, but that Mangini/Dabol now have someone to bounce things off of. That being said, the media frquently adopts the WCO stance anyway. IMO, Holmgren has too much to do and would prefer to stay out of the coaching aspect.

While some of what you say is true, Haskell and Wallace were brought in for very specific reasons. I've heard Haskell and Daboll are meeting very frequently. This smells like a Holmgren/Haskell take over at some point...but I'm getting ahead of myself probably.

Could be. I don't know anything more than you do. While a takeover could eventually happen, bringing structure to the organization appears to be Holmgren's primary task. Right now, he's content to to that and let Mangini do his thing. I can also argue that Wallace is a no-brainer regardless. He's better than what we had (~0) and cost nearly nothing. Haskell, on the other hand, has nothing to do with the textbook offense at all. Although I suspect I'm in the minority, I like the way things look right now, and I hope it's legit. Holmgren is THE MAN (czar / architech / whatever), Haskell is the GM, Mangini is the coach.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'm pretty sure the point is, an overwhelming majority of the most successful QBs come from the first round. If you don't get one in the 1st you have even less of a chance of them working out. I get your point as well because if they bust you're in serious trouble, but scared money doesn't make money.

You have to admit that the data is skewed in favour of 1st round picks because they are given every oppertunity to succeed and low round picks are not. First round picks like David Carr, Joey Herrington, Rick Mirer and many others got to play for multiple years until their respective teams decided that they were not going to improve. Meanwhile, players like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo have to wait several years for their oppertunity and then they are usually on a shorter leash.

An overwhelming majority of major QB busts come from the first round, as well. And a lot of the successful first-round QBs do not become successful for the team which drafted them. Here's a look at the top 12 from 2009:

1: Aaron Rodgers (1st round pick)

2: Drew Brees (acquired via free agency) 2nd round pick

3: Brett Favre (acquired via free agency) 2nd round pick

4: Peyton Manning (1st round pick)

5: Matt Schaub (acquired via trade) - traded for 2 2nd rounders

6: Tony Romo (acquired as free agent)

7: Phillip Rivers (1st round pick/trade)

8: Tom Brady (6th round pick)

9: Ben Roethlisberger (1st round pick)

10: Eli Manning (1st round pick/trade)

11: Donovan McNabb (1st round pick)

12: Jay Cutler (acquired via trade) - 1st round pick

So even if you count Rivers and Manning as first round picks playing for the team that drafted them, only half of the top QBs are success stories based on a team's first round pick.

Conversely, 9 of the top 12 WRs were first or second round draft picks for the team they're still playing for, and 7 of the top 12 RBs (including all of the top 4)--9 of the top 12 RBs if you include the third round.

So it looks at least as likely to acquire a top QB via trade or free agency as it is via a first-round pick, and your chances look better with a WR or RB. (Not to mention positions like LT, where it seems the top players are mostly first round picks playing for the team which originally drafted them).

The best way to get an elite QB is to draft one early period. Bradys and Romos of the world are rare.

 

[Devine Intervention]

anyone see them trading up into the late first if Tebow is still there??? A couple seasons behind Delhome, he just might be what Cleveland needs.

 

[Donnybrook]

anyone see them trading up into the late first if Tebow is still there??? A couple seasons behind Delhome, he just might be what Cleveland needs.

Tebow reminds me too much of Brady Quinn. A physical speciman but not a natural passer (as Mayock would say). I think they should go in another direction.

 

[CalBear]

The best way to get an elite QB is to draft one early period. Bradys and Romos of the world are rare.

Actually, it looks like you're just as likely to get an elite QB in free agency or via trade. You're not expecting to get Tom Brady in the 6th round, you're expecting to get Drew Brees or Brett Favre on the free agent market to add to a team that's already decent. Adding Tim Couch or Brady Quinn to a bad team is likely dooming yourself to another wasted high round QB pick a few years down the road.

 

[Catbird]

The problem is that you have to have one (QB) and he has to be good. If you wait around claiming free agents, hoping one will turn out to be Brett Favre, you will probably NEVER get an adequate QB, and that means NEVER having a consistent winning team. Of course taking a QB in the first is a huge risk. YOu spend several years hoping he'll be the future even if he is Jamarcus and it become clear fairly quickly that he doesn't have what it takes. I'll agree its more risky than guys at any other postion because its so hard to tell if they'll make it. But the chances of taking a QB in the later rounds or as a free agent and having him turn into a solid starter are infinitesimal compared to the already bad odds for guys picked in the first. After all, first round guys are those with the evident skills you need. If you can throw it hard enough and accurately, you will get picked in the first. Many of those still won't make it as NFL QBs. But if you don't get picked in the first, that means you can't even throw it hard and accurrately. And what are you odds of making it from there? It happens - we can name the guys - but I'll bet not 1 in 30 QBs drafted after the first becomes anyone you would want to be your QB. How many years do you wait for a QB to appear at a draft success rate of 1 in 30? If you need a QB - since you can't win without one - you just have to spend the pick and take the risk.

 

[kaa]

I think I'd trade for Kolb if I'm Holmgren.

 

[Steelfan7]

I think I'd trade for Kolb if I'm Holmgren.

Rumors are that Philly is looking for 2 1st rd picks for Kolb.

 

[a_rackowski]

I dont believe that Holmgren or Heckert have a 1st round QB draft choice in their careers. Unless someone slips I doubt that changes.