Buy or Sell-Dynasty RBs that likely were bought cheap (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

The off season is upon us and for many of the regular posters here at the SP it is without a doubt the most wonderful time of the year. I want to play buy or sell for a few different threads and positions over the next many weeks. I will also be working on Dynastyguys from time to time with Jeff Pasquino.

I wanted to start at RB for obvious reasons but essentially there are less and less bellcows in this league so we are forced to look at guys that have potential splits as possible RB1 types. Now Arian Foster and Peyton Hills were not sharing much time this year but that is the exception not the rule. I think it is obvious with certain players like Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and maybe Matt Forte...obviously you want to build around those type of guys and would only sell if you got a really good deal. But others may have come from nowhere and you have gold in your hands that you might want to cash in on now.

Arian Foster - personally I picked this guy up off waivers at the end of 2009 and ended up riding him all the way to the FIX Best Ball Championship this season. I do not think his success was a fluke and if Kubiak is actually able to hang on as head coach I would be inclined to keep him. But at the same time I got him for nothing and if you can turn around and trade him for a top notch WR like possible one of the Johnsons in a PPR format I think you gotta take a good long hard look at it. RBs come and go and the shelf life seems to be short. Steve Slaton, Shonn Greene, DeAngelo Williams...these are all guys that a year or two ago were worth quite a bit in dyansty and owners were hesitant to pull the trigger and now most of those owners are also rans in dynasty leagues and scratching their heads. The point is Foster is probably worth as much as he is ever going to be. So you either are making a choice to stick with him for the next 4-5 years or you are going to cash him in and try to grab one of the NFL rookies perhaps in the upcoming draft. I am pretty high on Ingram from Alabama but I don't want this to turn into an NFL Draft thread. I think Foster is worth at least the 1.01 and a high profile player, perhaps more.

Peyton Hillis - Great story but I think you want to move this guy. Coaching situation is uncertain, he fumbles, and Cleveland has not arrived yet. Some will argue to death that I have it in for the guy...not true. I just think if you own him that he has no where to go but down. He resembles Mike Alstott and over time he really slowed down in the NFL. Hillis did catch a lot of balls but a ridiculously weak WR corp has a lot to do with that. People did not want to hear me when I said SJax catching 90 balls a few years ago was a mirage and I imagine most owners are going to scream that Hillis will continue on this trajectory for years to come but I think if you can be objectionable which is extremly difficult for owners to be...you will see that Hillis could have a very short shelf life in the NFL and the time to trade is now. 60 receptions is too much to expect...that is higher than what LT produced on avg when he was king of the world. And most owners got this guy off the waiver wire so no one has much invested in this guy. It was like buying a $1 stock that is now trading for around $40-$50...cash in.

Ahmad Bradshaw - I drafted him in the 4th round of a rookie draft back in 2007 and he has steadily risen each year peaking this season with 1,500 total yds, 45 receptions and 8 touchdowns. Most owners that have kept him since drafting him 3-4 years ago feel pretty good for holding on to him. He has a few things working against him though. First of all he also tends to fumble too much for Tom Coughlin. Will Coughlin remain HC in NY? Will Bradshaw who should be coming to the end of his rookie contract remain with New York? If he were to go elsewhere would it help or hurt him? The offense in New York has a legit passing game and big time playmakers at WR so that helps the running game out. 2 Pro Bowl OL as well so he gets good blocking to rip off yards. Bradshaw is one of the guys that probably won't get you a ton in return. I think you could swing a mid 1st in the rookie draft but what would that get you? A 2nd tier rookie WR/Top pick at rookie QB? I have Bradshaw as my RB3/4 in my best ball league and I'm fine with that but I also understand that he could be someone else's RB1/2 on their team...so his value is probably better than I might indicate. He had a top10 year and how often will that happen?

So do you buy or sell these 3 RBs? I would be interested in the reasoning to your thoughts and I look to learn form the rest of you.

Cheers,

MOP

 

[thriftyrocker]

Date Hillis. Everyone has the same concerns on him. You aren't going to get value. I don't think you'll get top 15 RB for him. I'd rather buy Hardesty cheap and lock the situation (hopefully).

Marry Foster. He's for real and will survive Kubiak. I'd only move him if you're getting top 3 RB value - like trying to move him for an elite WR if you have a lot of depth.

Kill Bradshaw. I don't think he's a long term answer. He's probably overvalued at this point. I'd gladly move him for Rice or Best (adding a little to get it done). I'd consider moving him for Pierre or Moreno (getting a little extra in return).

 

[gotexansgo]

Date Hillis. Everyone has the same concerns on him. You aren't going to get value. I don't think you'll get top 15 RB for him. I'd rather buy Hardesty cheap and lock the situation (hopefully).Marry Foster. He's for real and will survive Kubiak. I'd only move him if you're getting top 3 RB value - like trying to move him for an elite WR if you have a lot of depth.Kill Bradshaw. I don't think he's a long term answer. He's probably overvalued at this point. I'd gladly move him for Rice or Best (adding a little to get it done). I'd consider moving him for Pierre or Moreno (getting a little extra in return).

 

[NCPanthersFan]

Dynasty Slant

My big problem with guys like Hillis and Foster is that I am going to lose a ton of value when they both are considered "holdouts" due to the fact that I got them for pennies off the waiver wire. Now I am looking at having two pay 2 guys top 5 money in addition to the RB's I am already paying big dollars for.

Houston's track record of every other year with a decent RB scares the heck out of me.

 

[duaneok66]

I think that Bradshaw is a UFA. He might not be re-signed . . .

 

[Concept Coop]

All three are legit, but that is relative.

Bradshaw: I worry about a coaching change, fumbles, and Brandon Jacobs. But, when he has the ball in his hands, there is not much to question. The time to sell was a month or so ago. He is a Hold.

Foster: Elite. Worth "selling the farm for".

Hillis: Hold? I don't know. I personally won't be targeting him, as I am not sold. But you can't ignore what he has done. I do worry about fumbles and I do worry about Hardesty, or whomever else Cle brings in.

 

[Football Jones]

You hold Hillis. You're very likely not going to get near what he's worth. He might be the best all-around RB in the NFL.

Forget draft slot, that he used to be a FB, & all that. Peyton Hillis is the real deal, IMO. And he did what he did this season without much help. I think that's what some people are forgetting.

That said, the future looks even brighter for Hillis. I believe McCoy is going to be a very good QB & when they get some more help at WR, look out. They've got a good OL. All the pieces are just about there.

Hardesty being the backup won't hurt Hillis' value at all. Hardesty isn't better at the GL, he isn't a better receiver, & he isn't a better blocker, which are key factors in a RB being a true feature back. Those are things Hillis excels at. Like I said, he might be the best all-around RB in the NFL (running/receiving/blocking).

 

[Concept Coop]

You hold Hillis. You're very likely not going to get near what he's worth. He might be the best all-around RB in the NFL.

Forget draft slot, that he used to be a FB, & all that. Peyton Hillis is the real deal, IMO. And he did what he did this season without much help. I think that's what some people are forgetting.

That said, the future looks even brighter for Hillis. I believe McCoy is going to be a very good QB & when they get some more help at WR, look out. They've got a good OL. All the pieces are just about there.

Hardesty being the backup won't hurt Hillis' value at all. Hardesty isn't better at the GL, he isn't a better receiver, & he isn't a better blocker, which are key factors in a RB being a true feature back. Those are things Hillis excels at. Like I said, he might be the best all-around RB in the NFL (running/receiving/blocking).

Best all-around back in the NFL? Adrian Peterson says hello.Without much help? Just becuase the 5 guys blocking for him wear Browns Jerseys, doesn't mean they aren't good - he had a lot of help. Just like they helped Jerome Harrison last season, and whoever starts after Hillis too.

 

[Ariakis]

Foster - I'd put him in the top 4-6 especially with Kubiak coming back and their QB/WR talent. If their defense and OL improves he could be even better as he had few leads to protect although his reception yardage helped too. I started the fantasy gold thread last year so maybe I'm biased. Tate could be back which may be a concern. I'd take him over any non RB. I'd take CJ2K, AP, MJD over him. I'd probably take Foster over Gore or Charles and anyone else.

Another question for Foster dynasty owners: Do you dump DWard to clear roster space for another flier or hold him for now?

Bradshaw - I think he's a solid RB2/3 with upside. Even if Jacobs leaves I think the writing is on the wall they make sure they have another RB to platoon. He probably isn't the next Slaton but I do see warning signs that he won't have a long shelf life.

Hillis - Best play here is to acquire Hardesty or trade Hillis to the Hardesty owner. Now you can sell them or keep them as a pair. His division will always limit his upside facing some top defenses more frequently than most but I think this is a team on the rise. It's also one that seems to support pretty decent RB stats. At worst you've probably got two flex level players next year and if one gets hurt an RB2 with upside.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Date Hillis. Everyone has the same concerns on him. You aren't going to get value. I don't think you'll get top 15 RB for him. I'd rather buy Hardesty cheap and lock the situation (hopefully).Marry Foster. He's for real and will survive Kubiak. I'd only move him if you're getting top 3 RB value - like trying to move him for an elite WR if you have a lot of depth.Kill Bradshaw. I don't think he's a long term answer. He's probably overvalued at this point. I'd gladly move him for Rice or Best (adding a little to get it done). I'd consider moving him for Pierre or Moreno (getting a little extra in return).