Car Market going forward (13 Viewers)

[guru_007]

Read somewhere the average new car sales price is now over 50k and the average loan term is 58 months.

Also, I heard that 20% of car loans now are over $1,000/month. And almost 20% of the car loans today are for 7 years (or more).

All of this got me thinking because I think I've heard that almost 2/3's of Americans can't come up with $2,000 without borrowing. So this means that there are a LOT of people going paycheck to paycheck and a lot of people carrying $1,000 car note for over 5 years. What' happens if they become unemployed or underemployed? And what about the millions of American's effected by the shut down?

I know people love living above their means, but even this gives me pause. Gas at $2.50/gallon is all good, but having to pay $1,000/month for this privilege?

I've always seen cars as a utility, not a luxury item.

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

Over the last couple of weeks, I have had to rent a couple of cars. Due to business travel, I am a Hertz President Circle member, which basically allows me to pick my own car (anything except the crazy high-end stuff they have) or request and usually receive upgrades, depending on where I am renting.

A couple of weeks ago, I was in Tallahassee visiting my son. The airport is pretty small, maybe 6 or so gates, so they don't give the option of picking your own car at the car rental counter. After collecting my bag from baggage claim, I was standing in line at the Hertz desk, as there were two or three people in front of me. Based on the conversations I was overhearing, there weren't any cars available as they were all being washed/cleaned after recently being returned, and the wait for a car was 20-30 minutes. While I don't tend to overflex my status in these situations, I was starting to get annoyed thinking that I, as a President's Circle member, would even consider waiting 20-30 minutes for that intermediate sedan that I had reserved. Don't they know who I am????

After 5-10 minutes, we got to the front of the line, and I handed the agent my DL and credit card. After tapping on the keyboard for a few seconds, she looked up at me, looked around at the growing line behind me, and mumbled something under her breath while looking back at me. Since I didn't understand what she said, I said, "I'm sorry, what?". And she said, a little louder this time, but still trying to stay discreet, "Do you want a Bronco?" After catching it that time, I was like, heck yeah! That's miles better than whatever piece of crap intermediate sedan was available (or not). I think the new Ford Broncos are the "Premium" line for the Hertz counter at the considerably small Tallahassee airport, so under normal circumstances, I wouldn't be automatically assigned that make/model. But thankfully due to my "status" and a helpful agent, I secured the upgrade. So for the next 3 days, we got to drive around in a brand new, Outer Banks Ford Bronco in Eruption Green (?!?). That was pretty awesome, and now I want one. LOL. And so does my wife.

That was until I took my trip to North Carolina last week for a few days of hiking. I flew into Asheville and had rented the least expensive available car, since it was just me. I think it was another intermediate sedan, so I was happy with whatever was available. I did get to the counter and asked the nice older lady, who was struggling with the new system that they just implemented, if they had any upgrades available. After punching at the keys for a short while and having to re-run my credit card multiple times through the reader, she said she only had two available vehicles: a Toyota Corolla (which was probably the intermediate sedan I originally reserved) and a pick-up truck. Needless to say, I chose the pickup. I was happy to see that it was a newish (~10k miles) 2025 Dodge Ram 1500 Laramie. I have never owned a pick-up truck, but damn, those 5 days of being able to drive one around, I certainly can understand the appeal. I fell in love with it and now want to buy one.

So if I had my druthers, I would shell out ~$110,000 for two new vehicles. But alas, that ain't gonna happen, and I'll just be happy tooling around town in my fully paid off 2000 Jeep Cherokee, 2007 Nissan Murano, or 2018 Audi Q5.

All that to say, I can't understand how people are able to afford new cars these days. When I bought my Audi back in 2017, I had just gotten a $10k bonus at work that I put as a down payment, and was still paying $700 a month for a car payment for a $50k vehicle. I can't imagine someone paying $65k or more for a pickup truck, no matter how nice they are, and I am more amazed when I see how many are driving around that part of North Carolina. Craziness.

 

[matttyl]

Read somewhere the average new car sales price is now over 50k and the average loan term is 58 months.

Also, I heard that 20% of car loans now are over $1,000/month. And almost 20% of the car loans today are for 7 years (or more).

All of this got me thinking because I think I've heard that almost 2/3's of Americans can't come up with $2,000 without borrowing. So this means that there are a LOT of people going paycheck to paycheck and a lot of people carrying $1,000 car note for over 5 years. What' happens if they become unemployed or underemployed? And what about the millions of American's effected by the shut down?

I know people love living above their means, but even this gives me pause. Gas at $2.50/gallon is all good, but having to pay $1,000/month for this privilege?

I've always seen cars as a utility, not a luxury item.

Gotta think folks who can’t come up with $2k aren’t buying new cars. The above stats are only looking at new car sales.

 

[pollardsvision]

Read somewhere the average new car sales price is now over 50k and the average loan term is 58 months.

Also, I heard that 20% of car loans now are over $1,000/month. And almost 20% of the car loans today are for 7 years (or more).

All of this got me thinking because I think I've heard that almost 2/3's of Americans can't come up with $2,000 without borrowing. So this means that there are a LOT of people going paycheck to paycheck and a lot of people carrying $1,000 car note for over 5 years. What' happens if they become unemployed or underemployed? And what about the millions of American's effected by the shut down?

I know people love living above their means, but even this gives me pause. Gas at $2.50/gallon is all good, but having to pay $1,000/month for this privilege?

I've always seen cars as a utility, not a luxury item.

Gotta think folks who can’t come up with $2k aren’t buying new cars. The above stats are only looking at new car sales.

I don't know the answer, but I'd suspect it's a lot more than you think.

Heck a lot of the reason people get new (or expensive used cars from dealers) is because they don't have any money. Zero down, push the financing out forever.

The best bet may be a $3000 car for a lot of people, but that usually requires actual cash (outside of some really sleazy dealers that screw people on financing cheap cars).

 

[Ted Stickles]

Read somewhere the average new car sales price is now over 50k and the average loan term is 58 months.

I don't know why the average vehicle price is that high, we are still trying to buy a 2025 Honda sport AWD, and it has an MSRP of 42k.

The sport model comes with fairly decent options as well. How is the average vehicle price higher than a 3 row AWD SUV. What are people buying.


Edit: this reminds me I need to email the local dealerships again. Been emailing almost monthly asking if they will do 10% off of MSRP. So far I have received 4 months of no's, but I may eventually get a yes.

$70,000 trucks.

$70k? I thought we were now in the 90-100 level.

This. My 2017 Volvo XC90 is starting to go...check engine light came on last week. Turn signal works sometimes. Memory seats have Alzheimer's. Transmission needs at a minimum a flush/reset.

I'd love to get a smaller SUV, but my wife is insisting 3-row with captain's chairs. I'm a car guy so I like something more interesting than a Honda Pilot...I wish I didn't, but I do...and I won't compromise for "my" car. Everything I've looked at is $80K+, with most of the options I actually like being even more. I did look at the Escalade IQ's that you linked to - man. Super nice. I don't think I can justify the cost, but they're really...really nice.

Why not stick with Volvo and get a used but "newer later year" XC90? I've seen some '19/'20/'21's for pretty reasonable prices and they seem to be falling.

I have a 2015.5 XC70 wagon and am looking for a used XC60/XC90/V90.

 

[ChiefD]

Read somewhere the average new car sales price is now over 50k and the average loan term is 58 months.

Also, I heard that 20% of car loans now are over $1,000/month. And almost 20% of the car loans today are for 7 years (or more).

All of this got me thinking because I think I've heard that almost 2/3's of Americans can't come up with $2,000 without borrowing. So this means that there are a LOT of people going paycheck to paycheck and a lot of people carrying $1,000 car note for over 5 years. What' happens if they become unemployed or underemployed? And what about the millions of American's effected by the shut down?

I know people love living above their means, but even this gives me pause. Gas at $2.50/gallon is all good, but having to pay $1,000/month for this privilege?

I've always seen cars as a utility, not a luxury item.

Gotta think folks who can’t come up with $2k aren’t buying new cars. The above stats are only looking at new car sales.

I don't know the answer, but I'd suspect it's a lot more than you think.

Heck a lot of the reason people get new (or expensive used cars from dealers) is because they don't have any money. Zero down, push the financing out forever.

The best bet may be a $3000 car for a lot of people, but that usually requires actual cash (outside of some really sleazy dealers that screw people on financing cheap cars).

The only problem is - there are no $3000 cars anymore. Unless you want one with 225,000 miles on it, smells like a drunks breath the morning after a bender, and is dented like a demolition derby car.

As a dad who has shopped for cars for my kids that are at least decent, you are spending 10k. It's a frustrating time right now in a lot of areas, but cars are just insane.

 

[pollardsvision]

Read somewhere the average new car sales price is now over 50k and the average loan term is 58 months.

I don't know why the average vehicle price is that high, we are still trying to buy a 2025 Honda sport AWD, and it has an MSRP of 42k.

The sport model comes with fairly decent options as well. How is the average vehicle price higher than a 3 row AWD SUV. What are people buying.


Edit: this reminds me I need to email the local dealerships again. Been emailing almost monthly asking if they will do 10% off of MSRP. So far I have received 4 months of no's, but I may eventually get a yes.

$70,000 trucks.

A friend of ours owes 59K on his 3.5 year old truck. Madness

It can't happen, but I wish there was some way, that before buying a car, people would have sit before a council of old men to justify it, and give the old men a chance to explain all the reasons this will go sideways.

Maybe we could use that council to find other ways besides personal vehicles to get around. Car companies force bigger cars with more technology in them to pad their margins because most people have no other choice.

Preaching to the choir.

Though, I do think it's hard to say exactly where the blame lies between car markers, consumers, and stupid government regulations on the march towards expensive tech-laden vehicles. It's some combination of all 3, but I don't know where the percentages lie.

If it were up to me, we'd still have plentiful econoboxes with manual transmissions and hand crank windows (I'm holding on to 2 of them for dear life).

Car markers aren't innocent in this, for sure, but Americans have made it quite clear that they only want cheap, low-tech cars when times are tough. Otherwise, if we're not in a recession or gas price spike, we want big, expensive, and tech out the wazoo.

 

[pollardsvision]

Read somewhere the average new car sales price is now over 50k and the average loan term is 58 months.

Also, I heard that 20% of car loans now are over $1,000/month. And almost 20% of the car loans today are for 7 years (or more).

All of this got me thinking because I think I've heard that almost 2/3's of Americans can't come up with $2,000 without borrowing. So this means that there are a LOT of people going paycheck to paycheck and a lot of people carrying $1,000 car note for over 5 years. What' happens if they become unemployed or underemployed? And what about the millions of American's effected by the shut down?

I know people love living above their means, but even this gives me pause. Gas at $2.50/gallon is all good, but having to pay $1,000/month for this privilege?

I've always seen cars as a utility, not a luxury item.

Gotta think folks who can’t come up with $2k aren’t buying new cars. The above stats are only looking at new car sales.

I don't know the answer, but I'd suspect it's a lot more than you think.

Heck a lot of the reason people get new (or expensive used cars from dealers) is because they don't have any money. Zero down, push the financing out forever.

The best bet may be a $3000 car for a lot of people, but that usually requires actual cash (outside of some really sleazy dealers that screw people on financing cheap cars).

The only problem is - there are no $3000 cars anymore. Unless you want one with 225,000 miles on it, smells like a drunks breath the morning after a bender, and is dented like a demolition derby car.

As a dad who has shopped for cars for my kids that are at least decent, you are spending 10k. It's a frustrating time right now in a lot of areas, but cars are just insane.

I swear they are still there (this is my wheel house).

Yeah, gonna generally be 200K miles or more, and some dents for sure. (You can find some cheap ones with lower miles, but you're probably talking Chrysler or modern Nissan if you want those problems).
Though, they can be found without smelling like a drunk. Even then, I know a guy who will do a detail for $40.

$1000-1500 could buy you a fantastic car up until 2019, and those days are gone, of course, but $2500-3500 can get you something perfectly fine.

I know it's different shopping for a kid.
I'm a 46 YO dude that just loves 20-30 year old Japanese cars. There's a nostalgia. I look at 30 year old Camry the same way a boomer looks at a Pontiac GTO. I also think that's when vehicles were perfected. 200+K miles doesn't bother me at all.

But for a kid, I get why these wouldn't be suitable.
20-30 year old cars don't have the safety features of more modern cars.

 

[pollardsvision]

In fact, I'm currently having to talk myself out of a 1-owner 2001 Toyota Echo with 203K miles for $2400.

I have too many cars (including a 2001 Echo with 307K miles).

But this one is a 4-door manual!
There's a shocking number of Echo's still on the road, but not a ton of 4-door manuals.

Speaking of safety features for kids......how about a manual transmission. There's a safety feature that requires the driver to actually pay attention.

 

[Instinctive]

I did a quick google search, never dealt with this dealership, no affiliation, etc. but I found this 2025 Honda Pilot Sport (black) w/23 miles on it for $39,795 (MSRP $43,795) which is approximately 9.13% off MSRP and I did see a $399 dealership fee of some sort but, to me, this is the starting point in your negotiation process. Good luck!

Thanks, yeah that proves 10% with no dealer fees will be doable, it just takes a while.

Usually after a few months of emailing a few different dealerships they realize that I won't budge.

That dealership is a couple thousand miles away.

The thing I've most learned from our recent car and house hunts is that if you have time, you get what you want eventually. Not needing to do the deal is an incredible BATNA, and perhaps the greatest source of leverage as a result.

 

[fruity pebbles]

What is it with everyone wanting huge *** vehicles. Everyone part of the Brady bunch?

 

[culdeus]

What is it with everyone wanting huge *** vehicles. Everyone part of the Brady bunch?

They actually contribute to traffic because they take up more linear space, and the impact is not small either.

you have familes of 4 that carry on average 1.1 people in a car that can haul 8. It's insane. All because little johnny might carry some friends to baseball practice one day or something.

 

[fruity pebbles]

What is it with everyone wanting huge *** vehicles. Everyone part of the Brady bunch?

They actually contribute to traffic because they take up more linear space, and the impact is not small either.

you have familes of 4 that carry on average 1.1 people in a car that can haul 8. It's insane. All because little johnny might carry some friends to baseball practice one day or something.

It’s definitely a thing. Girls at work……as soon as they have that second kid, it’s immediate shopping for a third row school bus.

 

[WVU Alum]

What is it with everyone wanting huge *** vehicles. Everyone part of the Brady bunch?

They actually contribute to traffic because they take up more linear space, and the impact is not small either.

you have familes of 4 that carry on average 1.1 people in a car that can haul 8. It's insane. All because little johnny might carry some friends to baseball practice one day or something.

It’s definitely a thing. Girls at work……as soon as they have that second kid, it’s immediate shopping for a third row school bus.

We have a 2020 Ford explorer with a third row specifically because we have 3 kids. I was cool with cramming three nearly grown teens into the second row of a more affordable car. My wife apparently has ultimate veto power in our relationship because i would like to continue to have sex. So....$750 car payment. I drive a $2500 pickup truck while my son drives my 2015 Civic that has 270k miles on it.

I'm not sure I even own pants now, let alone wear them.

 

[MTskibum]

What is it with everyone wanting huge *** vehicles. Everyone part of the Brady bunch?

We dont use it frequently, but when family members visit it is nice only taking 1 vehicle. Also last few summer vacations we have picked up my wife's parents at their home in El Paso, and then driven to southern rockies.

A Honda Pilot isnt a giant vehicle, it is slightly wider, but shorter than my tacoma, which is a "midsize" pickup.

Midsize in quotes, because it is larger than an early 90's F350, I pulled up right beside one the other day. You have to blame the automakers for keep making their vehicles bigger.

 

[The Z Machine]

What new safety features are needed for new drivers? Backup camera? Lane keeping? Emergency braking? Are these things truly needed?

To me, if it has ABS and airbags, it is probably safe enough. The likelihood that the 17 scrapes a wall or other vehicle is like 50% each year.

 

[The Z Machine]

You have to blame the automakers for keep making their vehicles bigger.

Not really. It's the consumers that keep buying them and pushing the demand away from smaller vehicles. Automakers are just trying to maximize profit.

 

[culdeus]

What is it with everyone wanting huge *** vehicles. Everyone part of the Brady bunch?

We dont use it frequently, but when family members visit it is nice only taking 1 vehicle. Also last few summer vacations we have picked up my wife's parents at their home in El Paso, and then driven to southern rockies.

A Honda Pilot isnt a giant vehicle, it is slightly wider, but shorter than my tacoma, which is a "midsize" pickup.

Midsize in quotes, because it is larger than an early 90's F350, I pulled up right beside one the other day. You have to blame the automakers for keep making their vehicles bigger.

We drive small cars. A weekly rental to take a car 1800 miles this summer of a wagoneer cost me $480 which is probably less than it depreciated and oil and tire wear and tear.

 

[MTskibum]

What is it with everyone wanting huge *** vehicles. Everyone part of the Brady bunch?

We dont use it frequently, but when family members visit it is nice only taking 1 vehicle. Also last few summer vacations we have picked up my wife's parents at their home in El Paso, and then driven to southern rockies.

A Honda Pilot isnt a giant vehicle, it is slightly wider, but shorter than my tacoma, which is a "midsize" pickup.

Midsize in quotes, because it is larger than an early 90's F350, I pulled up right beside one the other day. You have to blame the automakers for keep making their vehicles bigger.

We drive small cars. A weekly rental to take a car 1800 miles this summer of a wagoneer cost me $480 which is probably less than it depreciated and oil and tire wear and tear.

There are many more reasons. The reason we need my wife to get AWD pilot is because it has a 5k towing capacity and the AWD model she has now is only 3500 towing capacity. My boat is around 4k pounds loaded.

Once she gets a vehicle that can tow the boat, i can sell my truck and get another WRX or maybe corrolla GR. Something that is a manual transmission and fun to drive. That was the plan when we started shopping, although boat prices are finally dropping in price and I may just get a bigger boat, in which case I will probably keep my truck.

All those people who bought boats during covid are finally realizing that they aren't using them as much as they want and maintenance on salt water boats is higher than they planned, lol.

 

[stbugs]

Read somewhere the average new car sales price is now over 50k and the average loan term is 58 months.

I don't know why the average vehicle price is that high, we are still trying to buy a 2025 Honda sport AWD, and it has an MSRP of 42k.

The sport model comes with fairly decent options as well. How is the average vehicle price higher than a 3 row AWD SUV. What are people buying.


Edit: this reminds me I need to email the local dealerships again. Been emailing almost monthly asking if they will do 10% off of MSRP. So far I have received 4 months of no's, but I may eventually get a yes.

$70,000 trucks.

$70k? I thought we were now in the 90-100 level.

This. My 2017 Volvo XC90 is starting to go...check engine light came on last week. Turn signal works sometimes. Memory seats have Alzheimer's. Transmission needs at a minimum a flush/reset.

I'd love to get a smaller SUV, but my wife is insisting 3-row with captain's chairs. I'm a car guy so I like something more interesting than a Honda Pilot...I wish I didn't, but I do...and I won't compromise for "my" car. Everything I've looked at is $80K+, with most of the options I actually like being even more. I did look at the Escalade IQ's that you linked to - man. Super nice. I don't think I can justify the cost, but they're really...really nice.

Sucks about the Volvo, it should go longer than that. I gave my 10 year old RX Fsport to my middle son as it could go 10 more and he loves it. Flushed/replaced everything this summer on a 2010 Acura that my dad never drove in years for my youngest and of course he got in an accident Sunday, SMH. Looks like a glancing blow that might only be the front bumper. No leaks, wheel issues and the hood looks 100% in tact. Praying for it because it was a $50k car when bought 15 years ago and it has 79k miles. Again, another should go 10 more years and like the Lexus it has all the safety/features my boys need.

Somehow, I’m now back to driving a 180k mile 2012 Highlander Limited. I work from home so I barely drive it, but engine/tranny are in fantastic shape. My youngest is going abroad next year so I’ll sell the highlander and drive his car (title is in his name) for the year. I’m trying as hard as I can to avoid buying anything else. Hoping for a market correction timed with when I need to buy something although used is always an option.